3.2. Euronext continuous time quotation
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1 3.2. Euronext continuous time quotation Purchases Sales Last trades Quantity Limit Limit Quantity Time Quantity Quote :19 pm :19 pm :17 pm :16 pm :15 pm It s now 2:20 pm A 0 stock EUR limited buying order comes 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 1
2 Continuous time quotation (continuing) Purchases Sales Last trades Quantity Limit Limit Quantity Time Quantity Quote :19 pm :19 pm :17 pm :16 pm :15 pm Matching orders 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 2
3 Continuous time quotation (end) Purchases Sales Last trades Quantity Limit Limit Quantity Time Quantity Quote :20 pm :20 pm :20 pm :19 pm :19 pm Average price for 70 stocks : EUR Last quote : EUR Last fluct. : % 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 3
4 3.3. Euronext Paris main quotation rules Liquid shares Pre-opening at 7:15 am Opening fixing at 9:00 am Continuous quotation 9:00 am -5: pm Closing auction at 5:35 pm Confirmation/reporting up to 19:00 pm Illiquid shares Pre-opening at 7:15 am Auction at: am Auction at 4:00 pm Electronic orderbook 15 market interruption if quote varies % 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 4
5 3.4. Index calculation : CAC 40 example Danone floating cap., Sep 20, 2013 = 631,028, = EUR.98 bn Security selection : 0 first floating capitalization : Q i,t F i,t P i,t 40 most liquid : volume, turnover Capping factor at 15 % Index formula : CAC 40 Adjustment coefficient on Sep 23, 2013 : i, t i Index uses : diversification, benchmarking, hedging t k t 40 Q i1 Q F i, t i, P i, t P f i, t i, EUR 370,437,433, /09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 5
6 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 6
7 3.5. NASDAQ stock market model In 1971, the National Association of Securities Dealers created the NASD Automated Quotations NASDAQ Registered with the SEC since ,000 companies listed Each market participant competes for customer order flow by displaying buy & sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 7
8 Level II screen NASDAQ structure of competition Buyer/seller place an order Retail broker routes order through 1. Market maker = liquidity provider 2. ECN = automated system 3. Wholesaler broker Goldman Sachs Co. (MM) Knight Capital Americas (ECN) 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 8
9 4. Stock pricing & analysis 4.1. Fundamental analysis Industrial economy : pure and perfect competition zero profit imperfections positive profit Competitivity = ability to sell goods with profit : using best inputs, technologies, «know-how» using a mono/duopolistic position Strategy : objective : value creation choice : market share, internal/external growth, etc. 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 9
10 Boeing Company : Charts & Financials 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus
11 Boeing Company : Consensus estimates 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 11
12 4.2. Computing stock price using a DDM A simple DDM Gordon & Shapiro (1956) : Autofinanced perpetual growth g = ROI b Analysts forecasts Earnings per share. EPS t+1 = (1+g) EPS t Dividend par share D t = (1-b) EPS t Cost of capital k CAPM : E r r Er i i m r Market data Stock PV : V 0 D1 1 k... D g D 1 1 D k t 1 1 k k g t g 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 12
13 Application & limits Boeing stock snapshot : Market & stock data : LT market return. E(r m ) = 8.50 % Risk free rate r = 3.50 % Boeing beta... = 1. Boeing dividend.. D 0 = 1.76 USD EPS growth forecast g = 7 % k = % Theoretical value... V 0 = USD 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 13
14 A more sophisticated DDM Analysts forecasts about Boeing : D 1 = USD 2.00 D 2 = USD 2.75 D 3 = USD 3.20 from D 3 to D growth rate g = 6.00 % Formula : V 0 D1 1 k D 2 D 3 D k 1 k 1 k k g 1 g Theoretical value : V 0 = USD /09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 14
15 5. Factors that affect stock prices Economic growth : GDP Producers opinion Consumers sentiment Retailer sales Inflation : CPI Commodity prices Production prices Personal income Investors risk aversion V 0 D 0 1 g k g Market efficiency : P 0 vsv 0 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 15
16 5.1. Key economic growth indicators Source : ECB, Sep 2013 & Purchasing Managers Index Institute of Supply Management Index of Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Conference Board Retail Sales Index Cyclic stocks are sensitive to economic cycle 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus
17 Source : ECB, Sep 2013 & Key inflation advanced indicators Commodity Price Index Bureau of Labor Statistics Production Price Index Bureau of Labor Statistics Personal Income Index Commerce Department All stocks are sensitive to Central bank policy 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 17
18 5.3. Empirical risk premium 21/09/2013 Pr. Didier Folus 18
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