Thursday, 06 October 2016 Headlines US Equities ended with modest gains yesterday,

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1 Rates: ECB Tapering rumours prime on strong US ISM Bunds sharply underperformed US treasuries yesterday, still on the tapering story. Attention will now go to tomorrow s US payrolls release, suggesting a quiet trading session today. Key technical US Treasuries levels come into play. Attention is warranted. Currencies: USD/JPY extends rally on rise in core bond yields Yesterday, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY profited again from higher US/EMU yields. EUR/USD didn t go anywhere. Today, the eco calendar is thin. Recent trends might stay in place, but USD traders might turn a bit more cautious ahead of the payrolls. The decline of sterling slowed intraday yesterday, but the jury is still out whether this is the start of calmer times ahead. Calendar Headlines S&P Eurostoxx50 Nikkei Oil CRB Gold 2 yr US 10 yr US 2 yr EMU 10 yr EMU EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/GBP US Equities ended with modest gains yesterday, supported by a strong rebound in the non-manufacturing ISM. This morning, also Asian shares show moderate gains following WS yesterday. The German government is pursuing discreet talks with US authorities to help Deutsche Bank secure a swift settlement over the sale of toxic mortgage bonds, according to sources in Berlin. Fed s Vice-Chair Fischer said persistent forces including low productivity growth, damages from the financial crisis may leave the economy saddled with low growth, adding that policies to raise growth and interest rates must be beyond monetary policy. The world is swimming in a record $152 trillion in debt, the IMF said, warning that excessive private debt is a major headwind against the global recovery and a risk to financial stability. Brent crude oil prices rose yesterday temporarily above $52/barrel after EIA showed US crude stockpiles fell last week for the fifth time in a row despite slowing refinery activity. The Brent edges slightly lower this morning with the $51.87/barrel level still under test. Today, the eco calendar is thin with only US initial jobless claims and UK car registrations. The ECB publishes the minutes of its Sep meeting. P. 1

2 Rates US yield -1d 2 0,8417 0, ,2516 0, ,7127 0, ,4333 0,0347 Core bonds down for fourth session German curves bear steepened, while the US one shifted only marginally lower DE yield -1d 2-0,6760 0, ,5180 0, ,0140 0, ,5997 0,0564 Upside risks initial claims What about the ECB Minutes? Rates increase further on strong ISM and higher oil The combination of higher oil prices, recovering stock markets, a strong US nonmanufacturing ISM (57.1 from 51.4 vs 53.0 expected) increases chances of a US tightening soon. Together With Tuesday s ECB QE tapering rumours it triggered more bear steepening of the EMU yield curve. Chances on a Nov or Dec rate increase went only marginally up to 23.6% and 62.1% respectively. Bunds underperformed US Treasuries sharply, as the reaction on the tapering story primed the modest reaction on a better US Non-manufacturing ISM. Yield supports at 2.45%, 1.75% and just above 1.25% on the 30-, 10-, and 5-year held easily, helping to avoid bigger losses. In a daily perspective, German yields rose by 1.1 bps (2-yr) to 6.8 bps (30-yr). The US yield curve shifted 1 bps (2-yr) to 1.6 bps (10-yr) higher. On intra-emu bond markets, 10-yr yield spread changes versus Germany widened up to 2 bps for Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain. Thin calendar ahead of US payrolls tomorrow Today, only the US initial claims warrant some preview. While it covers the period after the payrolls survey week, big surprises may still cause some repositioning. Initial claims fell last week to a very low 254K and markets are expecting little change at today s release (256K). Given the sharp fall last week, the risk might be for some upward surprise, but all in all it shouldn t affect trading too much, as traders will be waiting on tomorrow s payrolls and shun big positions. The ECB publishes in early afternoon the account of its September policy meeting. Following Mr. Draghi s rather unusual behaviour at the press conference e.g. saying that QE was not discussed and recent rumours on tapering, it will be interesting to see what participants actually discussed. Of course, our expectations aren t too high as the Minutes mostly don t contain surprises. However, one never knows. Bund future (black) and EuroStoxx (orange) intraday: European equities recoup most of the initial losses, but the Bund hit further by tapering story and a bit by stronger US ISM.. T-Note future (black) & S&P future (orange) intraday: T-Note only hit modestly by stronger services PMI.. Spanish and French bond auctions Spain will sell, 0.75% July 2021, 1.2% Oct 2026, 4.2% Jan 2037 SPGB bonds for an amount of 4.5B and a 0.3% 2021 linker. Spanish bonds have performed well pushing the 10-year yield spread to its Italian peer to above 30 bps at the 10-yr tenor and further out. They outperformed swaps too in past weeks. This occurred despite the absence of a government. P. 2

3 R d R1 166,36 BUND 164,35-0,4400 S1 164,29 S2 163 The resignation of the Socialist leader Sanchez raises of course chances for the formation of a (minority) government. Yesterday the IMF upgraded its Spanish growth forecasts while downgrading most other EMU countries. So, the general sentiment is positive. We expect most interest in the Oct 2026 SPGB, The July 2021 looks a bit rich and the Jan 2037 may feel a negative impact from the recently issued 50-yr BTP. France taps the Nov 2026, May 2031 and May 2066 OATs for an amount of 7.5B. The French auctions usually go well and this might also be the case today. Most issues give some value versus OLO or versus the curve Awaiting the US payrolls? Overnight, Asian stock markets follow WS higher with modest to moderate gains amid a news-poor Asian session. Oil trades slightly lower following a stellar performance in past days, but stands still above $51.50/barrel (Brent). So, risk sentiment looks neutral to slightly positive but without negative impact on core bonds, the USD/JPY or gold. The T-Note future trades about unchanged and we expect the Bund to open little changed. Today s eco calendar is uneventful. Only the ECB Minutes might be interesting. They could help us understand why Draghi remained silent at the Sep meeting about a possible QE extension, especially after this week s tapering story. It might help investors forming their views about the outcome of next meetings. Admittedly, the Minutes often fell shy of expectations. Given the dearth of the market calendar and the release tomorrow of the payrolls, we bet on a range-bound session. Core bonds have fallen for four sessions, which calls for some respite. Technically, the Bund fell back in that longstanding range and tests the level. A break would open the way for a return to the range bottom at 163 (if payrolls would be very strong enough). For the US yields, 1.27% for the 5-yr, 1.75% for the 10-yr and 2.50% are strong yield supports. Rumours about the end of an era of unprecedented monetary easing could become run-of-the-mill in the run-up to the October/December ECB meetings and cap the topside in the Bund market. The trading range for the US Note future is expected to be to With more positioning for a December rate hike likely, we expect a move towards the lower bound of the range and possibility of a break in case of a strong payrolls report. German Bund: back within longstanding sideways channel after ECB QE tapering rumours, but risk for a drop to range bottom increases US Note future: Near bottom range. Payrolls to decide whether range remains in place or new trading range is in formation P. 3

4 Currencies USD/JPY and EUR/JPY profit from higher core yields USD/JPY takes lead in the USD rally ECB tapering fears block downside in EUR/USD USD/JPY holding near the recent correction high EUR/USD still going nowhere R2 1,1366-1d R1 1,1279 EUR/USD 1,1195-0,0020 S1 1,1123 S2 1,1046 Consolidation of recent moves on the cards amid empty eco calendar On Wednesday, the rise in core bond yields still dominated global trading. However, the impact on EUR/USD was limited as the fear for ECB tapering more than counterbalanced anticipation of a Fed rate hike. EUR/USD settled again in the low 1.12 area. A strong non-manufacturing ISM pushed to pair only marginally lower. EUR/USD closed the session at , almost unchanged from Tuesday. USD/JPY (and EUR/JPY) were again the main beneficiaries of higher core bond yields. USD/JPY finished the session at (from ). Overnight, Asian equity markets trade modestly positive, in line with the US yesterday. The rise of USD/JPY supports a positive risk sentiment in Japan and in the broader region. The pair trades in the area, holding within reach of the recent highs. EUR/USD is holding little changed in the 1.12 area. Commodity currency like the Aussie dollar don t profit from the rise in oil prices as higher core bond yields weigh on the currency. Today, only the US initial jobless claims warrant some preview. The report covers the period after the payrolls survey week, but big surprises may still cause some repositioning. Initial claims fell last week to a very low 254K. Markets expect little change for today s release (256K). Given the decline last week, the risk might be for an upward surprise. Even so, the impact on the dollar might be limited as traders will be waiting on tomorrow s payrolls and shun big positions. The ECB will publish the Minutes of the September policy meeting. It will be interesting to see what participants actually discussed as Mr. Draghi at the press conference said that QE was not discussed and given recent rumours on tapering. Usually, the minutes have limited impact on currency trading, but we the issue deserves some attention. Higher yields fail to inspire EUR/USD trading USD/JPY: propelled higher in the range as interest rate support rises Yesterday, the rise in core bond yields in particular supported the likes of EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. EUR/USD settled again in a very tight sideways range near Higher European yields due to ECB tapering speculation, supported the euro. Today, we expect some consolidation on the recent moves as investors are counting down to tomorrow s key US payrolls. Recent good US eco data keep the dollar well supported ahead of the payrolls, suggesting EUR/USD P. 4

5 range-trading. Questions remains whether the USD/JPY rebound can continue if volatility in US equities would pick up. For now, the damage from higher yields on equities remains contained, which is a ST positive for USD/JPY. EUR/USD tested the support before the Fed, but the test was rejected. The Fed decision didn t change the broader picture for EUR/USD. Markets look out whether the data support the case for a December rate hike. Swings in December rate hike expectations will probably remain the main driver for USD trading. The downside of the dollar looks well protected as long as the market implied probability of a Fed rate hike remains at current levels. The ECB tempering debate makes USD gains against the euro less easy. We prefer more range trading in the / band and a sell-on-upticks approach. USD/JPY remained in the defensive immediately after the BOJ meeting. However, a rise in US/European yields put the yen under downward pressure. We stay cautious on USD/JPY long exposure. However, the 99.54/99.02 area remains a strong support is the first main resistance. Sentiment improved over the previous days, but we expect the 99.89/ range to hold. R2 0,9084-1d R1 0,8843 EUR/GBP 0,8807 0,0002 S1 0,8725 S2 0,8333 Sterling decline slows, at least temporary Yesterday, the decline of sterling slowed. Sterling touched new lows against the euro and the dollar early in Europe. The rise in US/EMU bond yields and fears for a hard Brexit were still to blame. An aid of Brexit Secretary Davis floated the idea of four red lines for the coming EU talks: immigration, no EU budget payments, independent law-making and freedom from the jurisdiction of the EU court. With this agenda, a hard Brexit is inevitable. However, there were few additional losses for sterling. The UK services PMI was slightly better than expected, but with no immediate impact on sterling selling. UK PM May questioned the merits of ultra-low interest rates and suggested that this could change. Monetary policy remains the responsibility of the BoE, but the remarks might have caused sterling shorts to lock in some profits. EUR/GBP closed the session at (from ). Cable finished the day at (compared to an intraday low of Today, there are only second tier eco data in the UK. The sterling decline took an intraday breather yesterday, but the UK currency is again losing ground this morning. So we look out whether the recent lows against the euro and the dollar hold. This could signal some consolidation after recent steep losses. The longer term picture remains sterling negative (Brexit debate, higher yields in the US and Europe). However, we become more cautious on the sterling sell-off as the move as been very aggressive and one way of late. EUR/GBP: rally to slow? GBP/USD holding near 31 year low P. 5

6 Calendar Thursday, 6 October Consensus Previous US 13:30 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep) % 14:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 1) 256K 254k 14:30 Continuing Claims 2081K 2062k 15:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Oct 2) UK 10:00 New Car Registrations YoY (Sep) % 10:30 Unit Labor Costs YoY (2Q) % Germany 08:00 Factory Orders MoM YoY (Aug) 0.3% / 1.6% 0.2% / -0.7% Sweden 09:30 Average House Prices (Sep) m Greece 10:00 Unemployment Rate (Jul) % Events Chinese Markets are Closed for National Holidays 13:30 ECB account of the monetary policy meeting Spain Bond Auction (1.3% 2026) France Bond Auction (0.25% 2026; 1.5% 2031 and 1.75% 2066) 10-year td - 1d 2 -year td - 1d STOCKS - 1d US 1,71 0,04 US 0,84 0,02 DOW ,03 DE -0,02 0,04 DE -0,67 0,01 NASDAQ for Exch - NQI #VALUE! BE 0,26 0,04 BE -0,65-0,01 NIKKEI ,10 UK 0,81 0,04 UK 0,09 0,02 DAX 10585, ,78 JP -0,06 0,00 JP -0,27 0,01 DJ euro ,28 USD td -1d IRS EUR USD (3M) GBP EUR -1d -2d Eonia EUR -0,342 0,002 3y -0,201 1,125 0,463 Euribor-1-0,37 0,00 Libor-1 USD 0,26 0,26 5y -0,105 1,251 0,546 Euribor-3-0,30 0,00 Libor-3 USD 0,38 0,38 10y 0,355 1,545 0,840 Euribor-6-0,20 0,00 Libor-6 USD 0,54 0,54 Currencies - 1d Currencies - 1d Commoditie CRB GOLD BRENT EUR/USD 1, ,0021 EUR/JPY 115,96 0,55 188, ,41 51,61 USD/JPY 103,64 0,70 EUR/GBP 0,8808 0,0008-1d 1,48-7,93 0,29 GBP/USD 1,2702-0,0036 EUR/CHF 1,0928-0,0040 AUD/USD 0,7584-0,0041 EUR/SEK 9,6297 0,01 USD/CAD 1,3196 0,0014 EUR/NOK 8,9942 0,04 P. 6

7 Contacts Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force Piet Lammens Brussels Peter Wuyts Corporate Desk Joke Mertens Institutional Desk Mathias van der Jeugt France Dublin Research London Austin Hughes Singapore Shawn Britton Prague Research (CSOB) Jan Cermak Prague Jan Bures Petr Baca Bratislava Research (CSOB) Marek Gabris Bratislava Budapest Research David Nemeth Budapest ALL OUR REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE ON This non-exhaustive non exhaustive information information is based on short-term is based forecasts on for expected short developments term forecasts on the financial for expected markets. KBC Bank developments cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice. P. 7