Headlines. Wednesday, 18 November Core bonds end session little changed. Dollar holding near the recent highs. Calendar

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1 Wednesday, 18 November 2015 Core bonds end session little changed. German bonds continue to outperform US Treasuries, even as the end table shows little differences. The Bund still profits from dovish ECB (Praet) talk, while US Treasuries were negatively affected by higher CPI and the prospect of higher US rates. Today, we have no outspoken view. We still prefer Bunds over US Treasuries, even if most CB action is now discounted. Dollar holding near the recent highs Yesterday, the dollar remained well bid as sentiment on risk stayed constructive for most of the day. Even so, the gains were limited. EUR/GBP dropped (temporary?) below the 0.70 mark as UK core inflation was marginally higher than expected. Today, the focus is on the Fed Minutes. The dollar rally might take a breather, but the overall context remains USD supportive. Calendar Headlines S&P Eurostoxx50 Nikkei Oil CRB Gold 2 yr US 10 yr US 2 yr EMU 10 yr EMU EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/GBP European equities closed yesterday s trading session sharply higher, indices noted gains up to 2.7%. US equities closed mixed after a day of sideways trading. Overnight, Asian equities are trading with a loss, feeling the downward pressure of the commodity prices. Chinese home prices rose for the 1st time in over a year, signalling a housing market stabilisation that could help the Chinese economy. IMF cuts Mexico s economic outlook due to a falling oil output, which funds nearly a third of the country s budget. The commodities slide is not stopping, Brent crude dropped down to $/barrel. Gold has reached a five-and-a-half year low at $ /ounce. Copper touched a new six-year low at $4684/tonne. Today the eco-calendar is rather empty with only the housing starts data in the US. Interesting to watch are Fed s speakers and the Minutes from the October FOMC meeting. P. 1

2 Rates US Treasuries react negatively on US CPI release US Treasuries and Bunds end nearly unchanged Higher CPI weighs on Treasuries, but diving equities bring solace US yield -1d 2 0,8594 0, ,6589-0, ,264-0, ,0463-0,0185 Only US housing data on eco calendar Will the FOMC Minutes bring some more clarity on lift-off and on gradualism? DE yield -1d 2-0,3729-0, ,1392-0, ,5110-0, ,3780-0,0154 Global core bonds had a volatile session that left both Bunds and US Treasuries nearly unchanged in the official close. After European closure, the Bund rallied higher, de facto outperforming the US T-Note that ended unchanged. Intraday, the Bund got an initial boost from dovish comment by ECB Praet. In the afternoon higher than expected US CPI put pressure on US Treasuries while Bunds barely budged. However, US Treasuries eventually erased all intraday losses on the back of diving equities. In a daily perspective, US and German yield changes were minimal On intra-emu bond markets, 10-yr yield spreads versus Germany were nearly unchanged with Greece (-18 bps) and Portugal (-11 bps) outperforming on respectively an agreement about the Greek measures that will lead to financial support (also for banking sector) and on the DBRS (unchanged) rating action (Portugal) (see Sunset for more details). Light eco calendar: US Housing data US housing starts are expected to decline -3.8% M/M, following a strong increase of 6.5% M/M in September. We see some downside risks to consensus. The building permits are expected to have increased 3.8% M/M in October, following a decline of -4.8 % M/M in September. The Minutes from the October FOMC meeting are the main point of attention. These may reveal how the debate on the lift-off evolved. SF Fed Williams suggested that the October meeting was already a close call (regarding the lift-off). That surprised many observers including us as October was more or less excluded given its proximity to the September meeting when the Fed decided not to hike. So, the Minutes may give us further clues about the chances for a December lift-off. Recent Fed comments suggests that a lift-off is likely in December. Markets will already look for clues on how quickly the Fed will go after the lift-off. What means gradual? One hike a quarter, as the Fed dot plot suggests? Second, there is still uncertainty about the use of the new tools which should allow the Fed to steer the FF rate inside the official FF target range in a context of huge excess liquidity. T-Note future (black) & S&P future (orange): Initial decline, also on stronger US CPI, but recovery supported by diving equities Gold remains very weak, now testing the 5-year lows. If broken another down-leg may occur. Fed s rate hike expectations are a negative P. 2

3 R2 160,62-1d R1 158,6 BUND 157,64 0,4100 S1 156,57 S2 154,81 German auction: sluggish demand expected The German Finanzagentur launches a new 2-yr Schatz ( 5B 0% Dec2017). Grey market trading indicates that the new Schatz won t come with a discount compared to the previous Schatz benchmark (0% Sep2017). On the contrary, the new Schatz trades 2.1 bps more rich in asset swap spread terms which corresponds with 2 bps lower in yield terms. So both from a relative point of view as an absolute point of view (-0.40%), we don t find this Schatz attractive. Demand at German Schatz auctions is waning in line with longer-term auctions. Therefore, we expect a difficult auction. Today: Hawkish Minutes negative for US Treasuries? Overnight, most Asian stock markets trade marginally lower in line with the US yesterday evening. The US Note future trades marginally higher, giving no indication for the start of Bund trading. Today s eco calendar is thin with only housing starts and building permits in the US. Those aren t market movers. Most scheduled Fed speakers (Lockhart, Dudley, Mester) speak on payments systems. Dallas Fed Kaplan speaks on the economy and monetary policy. It is his first public appearance since taking over from governor Fisher. Fisher had a hawkish bias so we suspect Kaplan will have similar views. Kaplan will only vote on monetary policy in 2017 so his comments will likely lack market influence. The most important factor are the October FOMC Minutes. We'll get more insight on why the Fed dropped the dovish reference to global economic and financial developments and inserted the hawkish reference to the December meeting as potential lift-off date. Thinking on inflation could be interesting as well given the internal divide over the relevance of the Philips curve. Overall we expect a slightly hawkish tone, which is a negative for US Treasuries. Technically, both the US T-Note and the Bund regained lost support levels. The Dec T-note future is back above key support (US 10-yr yield below 2.3% resistance) after a renewed test yesterday. Nevertheless, we hold our sell-on-upticks for US Treasuries anticipating the start of the Fed s tightening cycle in December.. The Bund is back in the uptrend channel. We remain more neutral (range trading between and ) given the ECB s easing bias and the elevated chance of additional QE and a deposit rate cut in December. German Bund: back in upward trend channel US Note future: short term consolidation but sell on upticks anticipating monetary tightening cycle P. 3

4 Currencies Dollar extending gains by small steps Dollar holding near the recent highs, but pace of the rally slows R2 1,0803-1d R1 1,0759 EUR/USD 1, ,0020 S1 1,0521 S2 1,0458 (Asian) equity rally slows. USD little changed. There are only second tier eco data on the agenda today The Fed minutes are a wildcard for global (currency) trading. On Tuesday, sentiment on risk remained constructive. It helped the dollar to marginal further gains. The eco data in Europe (ZEW) and in the US (CPI, production) were close to expectations and had no impact on USD trading. The US currency touched a minor short-term high against the euro as US equities were well bid early in the US dealings. Weak commodities were a US supportive as well. However, a real new dollar up-leg wasn t on the cards. EUR/USD and USD/JPY closed the session respectively at (from ) and (from ) Overnight, Asian equities trade mixed to slightly lower. Japan slightly outperforms. China lags the indices in the region. There are plenty of terrorrelated headlines from Paris, but also from other places in the world. Until now, these headlines had no big/lasting impact on global market sentiment. Question is whether this will remain the case. With (US and Asian) equities taking a breather, the dollar rebound looks to be slowing. USD/JPY trades currently in the area. EUR/USD is changing hands near Later today, there are no important eco data on the agenda in the Europe. The US housing starts and building permits are usually only of intraday significance for USD trading, at best. Several ECB and Fed members will speak. After the close of the European markets, the Fed minutes of the October FOMC meeting will be published. Markets will be keen to see how much support there was within the FOMC for a December lift off. Some technical issues might have been discussed. Bottom line, we assume that the minutes won t change the USD supportive context. In a day-to-day perspective, there are few high profile factors to inspire a big directional move in the dollar. The context remains USD constructive and, even more, euro negative. At the margin, the Paris attacks reinforce the case for more ECB stimulus. That said, the dollar had a good run of late. So, a slowdown/st consolidation of the USD rally might be on the cards. Stocks and commodities are potential drivers for the short-term gyrations of the US currency. Bottom line is that we expect any USD correction to remain limited/short-lived ahead of the ECB and the Fed December policy decisions. EUR/USD: drifting south USD/JPY: dollar strength prevails P. 4

5 USD has broken beyond key resistance levels. Cycle lows/highs in EUR/USD and USD/JPY at respectively and come on the horizon. R2 0,725-1d R1 0,7197 EUR/GBP 0,7001-0,0024 S1 0,6984 S2 0,6936 In a broader perspective, short term interest rate differentials widened in favour of the dollar. EUR/USD dropped below the support and reached the targets of the short-term multiple top formation (neckline /1.1105) in the low rea. With policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB still in place, we don t row against the USD uptrend. However, quite some news (interest rate) is already discounted. So, the pace of the USD rally may slow. The post ECB QE lows in EUR/USD (1.0521/ area) are obvious targets on the charts. We maintain a EUR/USD sell-on upticks strategy for a retest of the cycle lows. For USD/JPY, the cycle tops in the /86 area is coming on the radar, but a test/break looks difficult short-term. EUR/GBP extensively testing the 0.70 level. On Tuesday, the focus for UK trading turned to the UK inflation data. The report as a whole was close to expectations. Headline inflation rose by 0.1% M/M to be down -0.1% Y/Y, unchanged from September and perfectly in line with the consensus. Core inflation was marginally higher than expected at 1.1% Y/Y. Even so, the report doesn t change the broader picture for the BoE. The BoE recently indicated that it expects (headline) inflation to stay very low for some more months. This prospect gives the BoE the chance to apply a wait-and-see approach on the timing of a first rate hike. Yesterday s inflation data didn t change this context. EUR/GBP lost a few ticks upon the publication of the report. A further temporary downtick of EUR/USD early in US dealings pushed EUR/BGP below the 0.70 barrier. The pair closed the session at (from ). Cable also gained some ground after the CPI data. The pair closed the session at (from ). Today, the eco calendar in the UK is empty. BoE s Broadbent gives a speech. His comments might be on the dovish side. A good reason to take profits on shortterm EUR/GBP shorts? Looking at the broader picture, the soft stance of the ECB pushed EUR/GBP again lower in the longstanding sideways range. The pair tested the support and the level was really broken after the FOMC announcement. A retest occurred after a soft BoE inflation report, but the test was rejected. We maintain a sell-on-upticks approach for EUR/GBP as euro weakness prevails. EUR/GBP: 0.70 level under test Cable: test of the 1.51 support area rejected, for now P. 5

6 Calendar Wednesday, 18 November Consensus Previous US 13:00 MBA Mortgage Applications % 14:30 Housing Starts (Oct) 1160k 1206k 14:30 Housing Starts MoM (Oct) -3.8% 6.5% 14:30 Building Permits (Oct) 1147k 1103k 14:30 Building Permits MoM (Oct) 3.8% -5.0% EMU 11:00 Construction Output MoM/YoY (Sep) --/ %/-0.6% Events 09:00 EMU - ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks at Euro Finance Week 10:00 UK - BoE s deputy governor Ben Broadbent gives speech 11:30 Germany - New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz 11:30 UK - 2% 2025 Gilt auction 14:00 US - Fed's Lockhart Speaks to The Clearing House in New York 14:00 US - Fed's Dudley, Mester and Lockhart Panel on Payments System 15:35 EMU - ECB s Coene speaks in Brussels 18:00 US - Fed's Kaplan Discusses Economic Conditions, Policy in Houston 19:30 EMU - ECB Executive Board Member Lautenschlaeger Speaks in Frankfurt 20:00 US - Fed Releases Minutes from Oct FOMC Meeting 10-year td - 1d 2 -year td - 1d STOCKS - 1d US 2,26-0,01 US 0,86 0,00 DOW ,50 DE 0,51-0,03 DE -0,37 0,00 NASDAQ for Exch - NQI #VALUE! BE 0,83-0,03 BE -0,29-0,06 NIKKEI ,18 UK 1,96 0,01 UK 0,64 0,01 DAX 10971, ,04 JP 0,30 0,00 JP 0,00 0,00 DJ euro ,94 USD td -1d IRS EUR USD (3M) GBP EUR -1d -2d Eonia EUR -0,131 0,007 3y -0,032 1,202 1,188 Euribor-1-0,14 0,00 Libor-1 USD 0,51 0,51 5y 0,209 1,585 1,503 Euribor-3-0,09 0,00 Libor-3 USD 0,57 0,57 10y 0,880 2,115 1,932 Euribor-6-0,01 0,00 Libor-6 USD 0,73 0,73 Currencies - 1d Currencies - 1d Commoditie CRB GOLD BRENT EUR/USD 1, ,0020 EUR/JPY 131,2-0,43 185, ,02 44 USD/JPY 123,26-0,16 EUR/GBP 0,7001-0,0024-1d 0,00-7,04-0,65 GBP/USD 1,5198 0,0023 EUR/CHF 1,0807 0,0021 AUD/USD 0,7101 0,0019 EUR/SEK 9,3121 0,00 USD/CAD 1,3312-0,0022 EUR/NOK 9,2494-0,04 P. 6

7 Contacts Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force Piet Lammens Brussels Peter Wuyts Corporate Desk Joke Mertens Institutional Desk Mathias van der Jeugt France Dublin Research London Austin Hughes Singapore Shawn Britton Prague Research (CSOB) Jan Cermak Prague Jan Bures Petr Baca Bratislava Research (CSOB) Marek Gabris Bratislava Budapest Research David Nemeth Budapest ALL OUR REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE ON This non exhaustive information is based on short term forecasts for expected developments This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice. P. 7