MARKET NEWS. Wednesday, Nov 15, Coal News

Transcription

1 Wednesday, Nov 15, 2017 MARKET NEWS Coal News The API2 Cal18 contract opened 60cents lower than Monday s close at $85.80/t as revised warmer weather forecasts suppressed front end French Power prices and in turn impacted European coal. The news influenced German Power prices also with the Cal18 market shifting 30cents lower to 36.60/MWh prior to the first coal trade. The weakness across the front of European Power markets influenced the front of the API2 curve causing levels of backwardation to continue to weaken across the morning session with the Q118 v Cal18 spread falling 15cents to $3.40. The second flurry of activity through the afternoon session saw the API2 Cal18 contract spike lower to close the day -$2.00 lower at $84.40 as the EURUSD ticked up 0.90% to $ with the Brent Crude Oil Jan-17 contract shifting 2.82% lower to close at $61.38/b. The spread between the API2 and NEWC markets widened across the day with the Q118 API2 v NEWC spread closing 55cents lower at -$4.65 and the Cal18 API2 v NEWC spread closing 35cents lower at $4.00. Reports from China implied the two-week maintenance period on the Daqin railway line led to a 15pc month-on-month drop in coal volumes delivered to the Qinhuangdao port through the first 12 days of this month. Contrary to this volumes transported between January-October rose 31pc to 359.6mnt with key mines in the Shanxi province boosting coal output by 40pc between 1-20 October. The increase comes after the NDRC ordered authorities and rail companies to ensure stocks were at reasonable levels during the Communist Part in October. API 2/API 4 API 4 Bid $ Offer $ Mid $ Chg Bid $ Offer $ Mid $ Chg Pg. 1

2 Iron Ore News Market Comment First section of the session most action focused around a relatively large front end buyer out of Europe then the market scalpers stepped in and there and saw some banks buying the Nov/Dec. Thus, the DCE closed at 444, after trading at the range of During the session, the Jan was traded at 60.8 and 63.15, while Dec at 60.8 and 63. Paper & Physical trades (previous trading day) Miner Rio trade 170k PBF Fe 61% at 62.68/mt for Dec laycan. (last at 62.29/mt, 13 Nov 2017). Platform Corex trade BRBF,Fe 63.0%,170k,at MM[ , ],62%,+0.20 /mt for Dec 9-18 laycan. Corex trade PBF,Fe 62%,170k,at Platts[ , ],62%,+1.30 /mt for Dec 7-16 laycan. Corex trade PBF,Fe 62%,170k,at Platts[ , ],62%,+1.30/mt for Dec 5-14 laycan. Corex trade, PBF + PB lump,fe 62% + Fe 62.5%,100k +70k,at Platts[ , ],62%, Platts[ , ],62%,+0.50 /mt for Dec delivery. GO trade BRBF, Fe 62%, 170K at (Dec index MB62% + Dec index MySteel 62%)/ /mt for Dec laycan. Port Inventory According to Umetal's survey of 42 ports in China, the total port inventory stood at million tonnes on Wednesday, 15 Nov 2017, up 170,000 tonnes day-on-day, while daily cargoes evacuation decreased by 104,000 tonnes to 2.59 million tonnes.. Technical Reports Base Metals and Non Ferrous Intraday Support and Resistance Little has changed on the DCE Jan futures on the daily chart as we continue to hold above the 38.2 Fibonacci support level. The upward move in the 4 hour chart has put the intraday back into bullish territory, with technical support now at CNY 454, and resistance at CNY Below CNY 454 the technical on the intraday will once again start to weaken Pg. 2

3 Oil News Oil was down at close of Asian trading Tuesday, as traders exercised caution while digesting output increases from non-opec sources. IEA's latest monthly oil report had cut its oil demand forecast by 100,000 bpd for 2017 and 2018, to 1.5 and 1.3 million bpd respectively, citing warmer temperatures that can limit consumption, while sharply rising production from outside the OPEC cartel may mean the global market tilts back into surplus in the first half of At the same time the EIA, during its monthly drilling productivity report, stated that total shale output is estimated to rise by more than 80,000 bpd to 6.17 million bpd for December, its 12th consecutive month of increases. Meanwhile, the latest analyst poll ahead of inventory data from industry data and the EIA peg crude stocks to have fallen 2.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov 10, putting a cap on the downside in oil prices today. January '17 ICE Brent futures was $0.35 lower at $62.96/bbl, while the rest of the 35-month forward contracts traded between -$0.35 and $0.25. Front month December'17 WTI futures was down $0.05 at $56.60/bbl, with the other 36-month forward contracts trading between -$0.09 and $0.45 The January Dubai EFS narrowed $0.11 to $2.39/bbl, while the February Dubai EFS was down $0.16 to $2.45/bbl. The Cal'18 Brent/Dubai decreased $0.03 at $2.12/bbl, while the Cal'19 contract was $0.04 lower at $2.20/bbl. Benchmark 180-cst FO was $3.00 and $3.50 lower for both November and December contracts at $371.50/mt and $371.25/mt; Cal'18 decreased by $2.64 to $363.46/mt while the Cal'19 contract gained $1.17 to $329.96/mt. November 180-Dubai cracks were down $0.17 at -$2.75/bbl, the Cal'18 contract dipped $0.27 at -$2.41/bbl while the Cal'19 traded $0.13 lower at -$5.30/bbl. The 3.5% Rotterdam Barges November crack was $0.41 lower at -$7.92/bbl, while the December contract lost $0.24 at -$8.05/bbl; the Cal'18 contract slid $0.22 at -$8.25/bbl and the Cal'19 was $0.08 lower at -$12.28/bbl. The front month January ICE LGO futures contract was down $4.25 at $561.25/mt, while the ICE LGO futures contract for Cal'18 gained $0.06 to $558.65/mt, Cal'19 contract was trading $1.02 higher at $548.31/mt. The November GO EFS differential narrowed $3.36 at -$15.46/mt while the December contract was up $2.03 at - $16.72/mt. The November Singapore GO contract slid $0.01 at $73.25/bbl while the Cal'18 contract was up $0.09 at $72.89/bbl; Cal'19 was $0.11 lower at $71.08/bbl. The November and December CFR-naphtha contracts posted losses of $4.25 and $4.75 at $591.25/mt and $584.75/mt respectively; Cal'18 was down $8.85 at $547.25/mt and the Cal'19 contract lost $8.96 to trade at $512.06/mt. November CFR naphtha-brent cracks were $0.14 lower at $3.47/bbl; Cal'18 was down $0.82 at - $0.28/bbl while the Cal'19 was $1.02 lower at -$1.92/bbl. Pg. 3

4 Physical Summary Platts HSFO Trade Summary: 2 trades 1) Platts HSFO 380CST: FOB Straits: 20kt: Nov 30-Dec 4: Petco sells to Hin Leong at $360.00/mt INCO2000 (4:28:34.808) 2) Platts HSFO 380CST: FOB Straits: 40kt: Nov 30-Dec 4: BP buys from Petco MOPS plus at $0.75/mt (4:29:44.68) Pg. 4

5 Platts Gasoil Trade Summary: TEN trades reported ) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from CAO at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 29-Dec 5) INCO (4:27:59) 2) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: 150kb: Winson buys from CAO at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Dec 4-8) INCO (4:28:02) 3) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 11-15: 150kb: Winson buys from CAO at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Dec 11-15) INCO (4:28:05) 4) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:08) 5) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:10) Pg. 5

6 6) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from Ocean Energy at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 30-Dec 6) INCO (4:28:13) 7) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from Freepoint at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 29-Dec 5) INCO (4:28:21) 8) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:23) 9) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:28) 10) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from Ocean Energy at MOPS minus 15 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 30-Dec 6) INCO (4:28:49) Platts Jet Trade Summary: No trades reported PLATTS ASIA MOGAS CARGO MOC: DEAL SUMMARY: FIVE TRADES RON: FOB Straits: Nov 30 - Dec 4: Vitol sells to BP at $72.15/b for 50kb (4:26:38) RON: FOB Straits: Dec 3-7: Vitol buys from Sietco at $72.10/b for 50kb (4:26:43) RON: FOB Straits: Dec 1-5: Lukoil sells to Gunvor at $72.10/b for 50kb (4:28:33) RON: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: PTT sells to Hin Leong at $72/b for 50kb (4:28:54) RON: FOB Straits: Dec 11-15: Trafi sells to Hin Leong at $71.70/b for 50kb (4:29:51) Naphtha deals summary: NO TRADES Pg. 6