Bank Pekao Valuation: We use a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Polish banks peer multiples analysis

Transcription

1 Warsaw, Marta Czajkwska-Bałdyga, Analyst, Haitng Bank Haitng Bank in a reprt frm 10 th July (09:00) upgrades recmmendatins fr cmpanies frm the bank sectr: Bank Peka (Maintain Buy, FV dwn 12% t PLN 139.3) Alir Bank (Maintain Buy, FV dwn 8% t PLN 86.9) BZ WBK (Upgrade t Buy frm Neutral, FV dwn 10% t PLN 389.1) PKO BP (Upgrade t Buy frm Neutral, FV dwn 6% t PLN 42.2) Bank Handlwy (Upgrade t Buy frm Neutral, FV dwn 7% t FV PLN 78.3) ING Bank Śląski (Maintain Neutral, FV dwn 8% t PLN 194.6) mbank (Upgrade t Neutral, FV dwn 8% t PLN 398.0) Bank Millennium (Upgrade t Neutral, FV dwn 7% t PLN 7.5) Valuatin Methdlgy Bank PKO BP Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages t individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum, 2) a reductin rate f 20%, 3) natural repayments at 5% p.a, 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw), 5) stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply fr individual bank a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 8.5% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ver t 2022E thus we assume a terminal ROE fr PKO at 11.1% (vs 11.8% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisin: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecasts by +2%/-2%/- 2% respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts, the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin as well as strnger 1Q18 results with stricter csts cntrl, lwer net prvisining and higher trading gains. Bank Peka Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages t individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum; 2) a reductin rate f 20%; 3) natural repayments at 5% p.a; 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f its existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw); 5) a stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply t an individual bank a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 8.5% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ut t 2022E and thus we assume a terminal ROE fr PEO at 13.7% (vs 14.0% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisins: We have revised ur 2018E-20E net incme frecasts by - 4%/-5%/-5% respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts, the impact f the intrductin f IFRS 9 n vlumes as well as reclassificatins between fee and interest incme in 1Q18, lwer net prvisining and additinal emplyment restructuring csts (sme PLN 45m) in 2Q18. BZ WBK

2 Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages fr individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum; 2) a reductin rate f 20%; 3) natural repayments at 5% pa; 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f its existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw); 5) a stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply t the individual banks a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: We apply a cst f equity f 8.5% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ver t 2022E and thus we assume a terminal ROE at 13.0% (vs 13.5% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisins: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecasts by +4%/-2%/- 5%, respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts, the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin as well as recgnitin f the prfit frm the acquisitin f DB (estimated at PLN 525m upn merger cmpletin in 4Q18) and PLN 60m f rebranding csts which we expect t be brne in We have als lwered ur trading incme n the back f wrse-than-expected 1Q18 results and increased slightly net prvisining n the back f revised retail vlumes. mbank Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages fr individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum; 2) a reductin rate f 20%; 3) natural repayments at 5% pa; 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f its existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw); 5) a stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply t individual banks a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 9.0% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ver t 2022E thus we assume a terminal ROE at 10.3% (vs 10.7% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisins: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecasts by 15%/- 2%/0% respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts, the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin, as well as a higher prfit frm the sale f mfinance assets. ING Bank Śląski Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages t individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum, 2) a reductin rate f 20%, 3) natural repayments at 5% p.a, 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw), 5) stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply t each individual bank a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 8.5% unchanged. We rlled the mdel ut t 2022E thus we assume a terminal ROE fr ING f 14.1% (vs 14.3% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisin: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecasts by -4%/-3%/- 3% respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts, the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin as well as the utlk fr higher persnnel expenses in 2018, despite an imprvement in NII cming frm strnger vlume frecasts. Bank Millennium Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate.

3 CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages t individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum; 2) a reductin rate f 20%; 3) natural repayments at 5% p.a; 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f its existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw); 5) stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share t each individual bank. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 9.5% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ver t 2022E and thus we assume a terminal ROE fr MIL at 10.4% (vs 10.7% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisins: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecasts by 0%/-1%/- 3%, respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts as well as the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin. We have als taken int accunt lwer-than-anticipated net prvisining in 1Q18 results and much strnger new vlumes in cnsumer lending, with the 2Q18 utlk als strng. Alir Bank Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages t individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum; 2) a reductin rate f 20%; 3) natural repayments at 5% p.a; 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f its existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw); 5) stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently we apply t eacg individual bank a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 9.0% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ver t 2022E thus we assume a terminal ROE at 12.5% (vs 14.2% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisins: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecasts by -5%/-6%/- 7%, respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts, the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin and revisin f perating expenses with higher new prject expenses ffsetting csts savings cming frm the merger with BPH. We have als taken int accunt the prer utlk cncerning cst f risk fllwing 1Q18 results. Bank Handlwy Valuatin: We use a Dividend Discunt Mdel (DDM) with a 50% weighting and a Plish banks peer multiples analysis with a 50% weighting t value Plish banks. Our FV is based n the weighted average f these tw methdlgies. Sensitivity: We prvide tw sensitivity analyses fr ur fair value estimates wherein we examine tw sets f variables: (i) ROEs and perpetuity grwth rates; and (ii) equity risk premium and the risk-free rate. CHF bill adjustment: We estimate a ttal PLN 6.53bn (dwn frm PLN 8.08bn) cumulative lss fr the banking sectr stemming frm restructuring f the CHF prtfli. Taking int accunt a prtfli f CHF mrtgages fr individuals at PLN 107bn (December 2017), assuming: 1) a charge t the fund at a max level f 2% per annum, 2) a reductin rate f 20%; 3) natural repayments at 5% p.a; 4) a 5 year hrizn (until 2022), which wuld imply lwering the prtfli t rughly 50% f its existing value (sme 4% f ttal lans vs 10% nw); 5) a stable FX rate at CHF/PLN 3.56; we estimate a ttal cumulative lss fr the system at PLN 6.53bn. Thus we are aware that given the number f assumptins this calculatin has a very high margin f errr. Subsequently fr individual banks we apply a market share weighted prtin f this lss per share. Main assumptin changes: we apply a cst f equity f 8.5% (unchanged). We rlled the mdel ver t 2022E and thus we assume a terminal ROE fr BHW f 12.5% (vs 12.5% befre). We use a risk-free rate f 3.5% (based n the 10Y Plish Gvernment Bnd Yield). Frecast revisins: We have revised ur 2018E-20E NI frecast by +10%/-2%/- 4%, respectively, n the back f lwer interest rate frecasts and the impact f the IFRS 9 intrductin. We als tk int accunt higher-than-anticipated 1Q18 results with strnger trading incme and a lwer cst f risk. Risks t Fair Value Bank PKO BP Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenaris including: i) interest rates; ii) assets quality/cst f risk; iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Interest rate related: Material difference in magnitude and timing f the Central Bank interest rates changes versus ur base assumptin, i.e. 50bps interest rate rise in (PKO has the secnd highest sensitivity amng Plish banks).

4 Funding csts Cmpetitive rise in depsit rates and/r relatively high share f whlesale funding where the pricing is vulnerable t the glbal market sentiment and may prve a dwnside risk. FX rate: Relatively high expsure t FX risk f its CHF mrtgage prtfli (PKO BP has a 19% market share in the CHF mrtgage market with a lan bk f PLN 26.4bn accunting fr 13% f its lan bk and 73% f equity). Dividend: Scenari f 25% dividend pay-ut might nt materialize r PFSA may sften the dividend payut criteria. Regulatry risk CHF mrtgages: The restructuring f freign currency husing lans may nt materialize, may be perfrmed in a different way t ur base scenari r/and additinal csts, i.e. spread bill. Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis and/r dividends Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins Ownership related: PKO is state cntrlled (29.43%), thus we see a risk f nn-market riented decisins. Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin) Change in the market-wise sentiment t risk n, with preference fr dividend stcks (dwnside) Bank Peka Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenari including: i) interest rates ii) assets quality/cst f risk, iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Dividends: Changes t PEO s dividend plicy. Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins Strategic targets related: We assume PEO delivers n its 2020 strategic targets (ROE, C/I), giving the relatively new management the benefit f the dubt. Lwer assets quality: As it cmes with faster grwth f vlumes, PEO might cmprmise n the risk taken. Mrever PEO targets higher yield cnsumer lans and SMEs, i.e. segments where the risk is naturally higher. Acquisitin related: PEO annunced that talks with ALR n a pssible cperatin/merger wuld be ver sn ne way r the ther. Mrever PEO s capital buffer makes it ptentially attractive t ther cmpanies seeking t d M&A. Therefre risks f verpaying fr assets and/r nt delivering upn ptential synergy targets persist. Regulatry risk Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis/and/r dividends. Ownership related: PEO is indirectly state cntrlled (via PZU and PFR cntrlling), thus we see a risk f nn-market riented decisins. Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin) Change in the market-wise sentiment twards dividend stcks BZ WBK Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenari including: i) interest rates; ii) assets quality/cst f risk; iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Funding csts Cmpetitive rise in depsit rates. With the acquisitin f DB assets, its liquidity psitin may be squeezed. Thus it may ptentially need t raise funds, pssibly bth in depsits and whlesale. FX rate: Expsure t FX risk f its CHF mrtgage prtfli (10% f lan bk). Appreciatin f CHF may lead t further pressure n its liquidity psitin. Merger related: Given the pending acquisitin f DB assets (0.6x P/B), we see a risk f: i) nt getting cnsent n the acquisitin f assets; ii) delivery f strategy csts and synergies. Capital market related: The relatively higher revenue expsure t capital market related fees culd be at risk with changing market cnditins. Dividend: Scenari f 50% dividend pay-ut might nt materialize. Cst f risk: SCB cnsumer finance lan bk prvides abve average risk t the retail nn-mrtgage bk cst f risk assumptins. Regulatry risk CHF mrtgages: The restructuring f freign currency husing lans a different way t ur base scenari r/and additinal csts, i.e. spread bill. We estimate the maximum cst f a CHF bill that BZW culd bear fr the bank t still be able t reprt a CET1 abve the minimum required by the KNF f % (nt taking int cnsideratin a change in the risk weights frm 150% n FX mrtgages t belw 100% n PLN mrtgages) is PLN 4.6bn, which implies a 43% haircut f its CHF prtfli. Based n a CHF mrtgage bk f PLN 10.7bn reprted in 4Q17, taking int accunt the presidential prpsal (under the assumptin f a cntributin at a max. rate f 2% FX bk p.a.), the first year cntributin f PLN 0.18bn, i.e. 8% f 2018E NI, is nt included in ur frecast. Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis and/r dividends. Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins. Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin).

5 mbank Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenari including: i) interest rates; ii) assets quality/cst f risk; iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Funding csts: Cmpetitive rise in depsit rates. FX rate: Relatively high expsure t FX risk f its CHF mrtgage prtfli (22% f lan bk). Cst f risk: Sensitivity f NI t changes in the cst f risk is strnger than average. Dividend: Higher-than-expected near-term dividend level culd materialise. Regulatry risk CHF mrtgages: The restructuring f freign currency husing lans in a different way t ur base scenari r/and additinal csts, i.e. spread bill. We estimate the maximum cst f a CHF bill that MBK culd bear fr the bank t still be able t reprt CET1 abve the minimum required by the KNF f 12.0% at PLN 3.22bn, which implies a 18% haircut in its CHF prtfli. Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis and/r dividends. Increase in LGD ratis fr banks using IRB methdlgy, rising min. requirements, in line with the Financial Stability Cmmittee Recmmendatin f 13 January 2017). Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins. Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin). Change in the market-wise sentiment t risk n, with dividend stcks preferred. ING Bank Śląski Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenari including: i) interest rates ii) assets quality/cst f risk, iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Cmpetitin: Intensified cmpetitin fr lans/depsits resulting in lwer spreads n assets/liabilities Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins Cst f risk: With abve average grwth f market share, the risk f deterirating assets quality and/r rising cst f risk persist. Dividends: The risk that ING might need t further limit dividend payuts given its B/S grwth. Upside risk that the cmpany will increase its payut rati, given lwer lending vlume grwth Regulatry risk Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis and/r dividends Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin) Change in the market-wise sentiment twards stcks with high dividend yield Lw liquidity Bank Millennium Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenaris including: i) interest rates; ii) assets quality/cst f risk; iii) vlume grwth in Pland. NIM expansin faster NIM expansin due t ptentially higher assets spreads culd lead t higher earnings; Funding csts Cmpetitive rise in depsit rates culd lead t NIM narrwing; Better assets quality culd lead t a lwer cst f risk, which wuld have a psitive impact n earnings; Regulatry risk CHF mrtgages: The restructuring f freign currency husing lans a different way t ur base scenari r/and additinal csts, i.e. spread bill. We estimate the maximum cst f a CHF bill that MIL culd bear fr it t still be able t reprt a CET1 abve the minimum required by the KNF f % t be PLN 2.9bn, which implies a 21% cut in its CHF prtfli; Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis and/r dividends; Increase in LGD ratis fr banks using the IRB methdlgy, rising min. requirements, in line with the Financial Stability Cmmittee Recmmendatin f 13 January 2017; FX rate: Relatively high expsure t FX risk f its CHF mrtgage prtfli (sme 30% f lan bk). CHF depreciatin helps the bank liquidity psitin, while CHF appreciatin shrts the bank s liquidity psitin; Dividend: Slwer than expected return t dividend payments, as we expect first dividends t be paid frm 2018 net prfit; Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins; Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin) Change in the market-wise sentiment t risk n, with dividend stcks preferred Alir Bank Macr related: Risk f different macrecnmic scenari including: i) interest rates; ii) assets quality/cst f risk; iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Dividend: Faster than expected return t dividend payment.

6 Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins. Strategic targets related: We assume ALR des nt deliver n its 2020 strategic target ROE. Acquisitin related: Nt delivering synergy targets with Bank BPH assets. PEO has annunced that talks with ALR n a pssible cperatin/merger wuld be ver sn ne way r the ther. Regulatry risk Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis. Asset quality Relatively higher risk appetite reflected in its higher than-average cst f risk and NPLs. Ownership related: ALR is indirectly state cntrlled (via PZU % stake), thus we see a risk f nn-market riented decisins. Capital needs: Any ptential increase in appetite fr lan grwth (PLN 5bn-PLN 6bn net is expected annually) culd trigger a capital increase given its mst mdest margin in relatin t the minimum requirements. Valuatin: Bank Handlwy Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin) Change in market-wise sentiment twards dividend stcks. Macr related: Risk f a different macrecnmic scenari including: i) interest rates; ii) assets quality/cst f risk; iii) vlume grwth in Pland. Interest rate related: Material difference in magnitude and timing f the Central Bank interest rates changes versus ur base assumptin, i.e. 25bps interest rate rise in (BHW has the highest sensitivity amng Plish banks). Vlume grwth significantly belw/abve ur expectatins. Equity market develpment sme 40% f fee incme cmes frm the equity market related business, thus it is sensitive t market cnditins. Trading incme vlatility: Abve-average sensitivity t trading incme, which is vlatile in its nature, carries upside/dwnside risk t earnings Dividends: Risk that BHW might need t limit dividend payuts (materially belw 100%) due t regulatry changes. Securities yield curve: Abve-average sensitivity f NII t securities incme carries risks in the event f lwer/higher than anticipated yield n securities. Regulatry risk Any new regulatry requirements cncerning minimum adequacy ratis and/r dividends. Valuatin: Higher Risk Free Rate (lwers valuatin). Change in sentiment market-wise twards dividend stcks (upside risk). IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Please find updated IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES at: