Reference-Dependent Preferences with Expectations as the Reference Point
|
|
- Jonathan Hood
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Reference-Dependent Preferences with Expectations as the Reference Point January 11, 2011
2 Today The Kőszegi/Rabin model of reference-dependent preferences... Featuring: Personal Equilibrium (PE) Preferred Personal Equilibrium (PPE)
3 Today The Kőszegi/Rabin model of reference-dependent preferences... Featuring: Personal Equilibrium (PE) Preferred Personal Equilibrium (PPE)... and many more (UPE,CPE)
4 Today The Kőszegi/Rabin model of reference-dependent preferences... Featuring: Personal Equilibrium (PE) Preferred Personal Equilibrium (PPE)... and many more (UPE,CPE) Ultimate goal: more complete understanding of the insights to be gained from modeling RD prefs, how we can apply them to standard economic situations.
5 What is the (reference) point? TK(1991): A treatment of reference-dependent choice raises two questions: what is the reference state, and how does it affect preferences? The present analysis focuses on the second question. We assume that the decision maker has a definite reference state X, and we investigate its impact on the choice between options. The question of the origin and the determinants of the reference state lies beyond the scope of the present article. Although the reference state usually corresponds to the decision maker s current position, it can also be influenced by aspirations, expectations, norms, and social comparisons.
6 What is the (reference) point? Candidates: 1. Aspirations/goals 2. Your neighbors 3. Recent 4. Status quo r t = (1 γ)r t 1 + γc t 1 (most common, convenient) r t = max τ<t c τ ; 5. Expectations t 1 1 j=1 j c j t 1 1 j=1 j ; t 1 1 j=1 j c t j t 1 1 j=1 j ; j=1 γj c t j Kőszegi & Rabin argue that (5) is often most appropriate.
7 Expectations as the Reference Point: Why? KR: reference point = probabilistic beliefs held in recent past about outcomes In most cases where evidence is interpreted w/ status quo as r, people plausibly expect to maintain status quo.
8 Expectations as the Reference Point: Why? KR: reference point = probabilistic beliefs held in recent past about outcomes In most cases where evidence is interpreted w/ status quo as r, people plausibly expect to maintain status quo. When expectations status quo, expectations generally makes better predictions: Endowment effect in mug experiments: people expect to keep mug, no predisposition to trade No endowment effect among card traders: Buyers & sellers in real-world markets who expect to trade Salary of $50k to someone who expected $60k feels like a $10k loss, not a $50k gain
9 Expectations as the Reference Point: Why? KR: reference point = probabilistic beliefs held in recent past about outcomes In most cases where evidence is interpreted w/ status quo as r, people plausibly expect to maintain status quo. When expectations status quo, expectations generally makes better predictions: Endowment effect in mug experiments: people expect to keep mug, no predisposition to trade No endowment effect among card traders: Buyers & sellers in real-world markets who expect to trade Salary of $50k to someone who expected $60k feels like a $10k loss, not a $50k gain Any theory of expectation formation could be plugged into the model, but KR assume rational expectations (Realistic) assumption that people can predict their own behavior Can pinpoint results due to RD
10 Example illustrating personal equilibrium Suppose you get instrumental and anticipatory utility from eating either a muffin or a smoothie. (No RD here) x, e {m, s} U(x, e) is given by e\x m s m 3 2 s 0 1 Self-fulfilling expectations: if you expect m, m is the optimal choice; if you expect s, s is optimal Multiple equilibria, but (m, m) yields higher utility
11 Personal Equilibrium Personal equilibrium (PE): 1. Correctly predict environment & own behavior 2. Taking (reference point generated by) expectations as given, maximizes utility (in each contingency) Refinement: preferred personal equilibrium (PPE). Based on the assumption that you should be able to make any credible plan for your own behavior, choose the best plan.
12 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Suppose Oprah is considering buying a shoe today. She went to bed last night believing that the price is equally likely to be p L = 100 or p H = 150. She forms her plan tonight, but only observes the price tomorrow, before making the decision to buy. Consumption utility: m(s, d) = vs + d, where s {0, 1} is the number of shoes, and d is the number of dollars, at the end of the day, and v > 0 is a taste parameter. Gain/loss utility: µ( m) = m for m 0 and µ( m) = λ m for m 0, where λ 1.
13 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Suppose Oprah is considering buying a shoe today. She went to bed last night believing that the price is equally likely to be p L = 100 or p H = 150. She forms her plan tonight, but only observes the price tomorrow, before making the decision to buy. Consumption utility: m(s, d) = vs + d, where s {0, 1} is the number of shoes, and d is the number of dollars, at the end of the day, and v > 0 is a taste parameter. Gain/loss utility: µ( m) = m for m 0 and µ( m) = λ m for m 0, where λ 1. Find all personal equilibria (PE) and preferred personal equilibria (PPE) as a function of v.
14 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Break the problem down into parts: consider always buy, buy if p L and never buy seperately. First, when is the strategy of always buying the shoes (no matter the price) a PE? Given r, if it s worth buying at p H, it will always be worth buying at p L. So when buy at p H?
15 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Break the problem down into parts: consider always buy, buy if p L and never buy seperately. First, when is the strategy of always buying the shoes (no matter the price) a PE? Given r, if it s worth buying at p H, it will always be worth buying at p L. So when buy at p H? U BUY ph = v ( ) = v 225
16 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Break the problem down into parts: consider always buy, buy if p L and never buy seperately. First, when is the strategy of always buying the shoes (no matter the price) a PE? Given r, if it s worth buying at p H, it will always be worth buying at p L. So when buy at p H? U BUY ph = v ( ) = v 225 U NO ph = 0 3v (100) (150) = 125 3v
17 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Break the problem down into parts: consider always buy, buy if p L and never buy seperately. First, when is the strategy of always buying the shoes (no matter the price) a PE? Given r, if it s worth buying at p H, it will always be worth buying at p L. So when buy at p H? U BUY ph = v ( ) = v 225 U NO ph = 0 3v (100) (150) = 125 3v So buy iff v > 87.5
18 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Break the problem down into parts: consider always buy, buy if p L and never buy seperately. First, when is the strategy of always buying the shoes (no matter the price) a PE? Given r, if it s worth buying at p H, it will always be worth buying at p L. So when buy at p H? U BUY ph = v ( ) = v 225 U NO ph = 0 3v (100) (150) = 125 3v So buy iff v > 87.5 So for v > 87.5, always buy is a PE.
19 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Next, when is buy if p L a PE? Given r, utilities if the price is high are: U BUY ph = v (v) 3[ 1 2 (150 0) ( )] U No ph = v (100) So buy iff v > 500 3
20 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Next, when is buy if p L a PE? Given r, utilities if the price is high are: U BUY ph = v (v) 3[ 1 2 (150 0) ( )] U No ph = v (100) So buy iff v > Utilities if the price is low are: U BUY pl = v (v) 3[ 1 2 (100 0) ( )] U No pl = v (100) So buy iff v > 200
21 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Next, when is buy if p L a PE? Given r, utilities if the price is high are: U BUY ph = v (v) 3[ 1 2 (150 0) ( )] U No ph = v (100) So buy iff v > Utilities if the price is low are: U BUY pl = v (v) 3[ 1 2 (100 0) ( )] U No pl = v (100) So buy iff v > 200 So buy if p L is a PE for 100 < v < 500 3
22 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Do the rest on your own When is never buy a PE? When is PE unique? What are the PPE, as a function of v?
23 Example: Stochastic Reference Point Do the rest on your own Really! When is never buy a PE? When is PE unique? What are the PPE, as a function of v?
24 Model Riskless utility u(c r) m(c) + n(c r) Consumption (m) and gain/loss (n) utilities separable across dimensions k Gain/loss utility related to consumption: n k (c k r k ) µ(m k (c k ) m k (r k )), where µ is a KT value function (A0-A4) Stochastic outcome F evaluated according to expected utility; utility of outcome is average of how it feels relative to each possible realization of stochastic reference point G: U(F G) = u(c r)dg(r)df (c) Apply PE
25 Basic Properties Lower RP makes a person happier
26 Basic Properties Lower RP makes a person happier Status quo bias: if you re willing to abandon RP for alternative, then you strictly prefer the alternative when it is the RP. U(F F ) U(F F ) = U(F F ) > U(F F )
27 Basic Properties Lower RP makes a person happier Status quo bias: if you re willing to abandon RP for alternative, then you strictly prefer the alternative when it is the RP. U(F F ) U(F F ) = U(F F ) > U(F F ) If m is linear then u(c r) exhibits some properties as µ (A0-A4). Shares properties of prospect theory for small gambles, but not for large. (DMU(w) kicks in.)
28 Basic Properties Lower RP makes a person happier Status quo bias: if you re willing to abandon RP for alternative, then you strictly prefer the alternative when it is the RP. U(F F ) U(F F ) = U(F F ) > U(F F ) If m is linear then u(c r) exhibits some properties as µ (A0-A4). Shares properties of prospect theory for small gambles, but not for large. (DMU(w) kicks in.) When choice set, choices are deterministic, PPE predictions are identical to model based solely on consumption utility. Loss aversion doesn t affect choice, welfare. Not true for PE, because if a person anticipates and option that does not maximize m, she may carry it out to avoid sense of loss.
29 Another Shoe Example Now suppose m(s, d) = s + d, add η > 0 is weight on gain/loss utility. Deterministic price: exist p L, p H such that there is a unique PE for p < p L, p > p H ; multiple eq. in between but typically unique PPE. Stochastic prices: increased likelihood of buying (e.g. higher prob of lower price) leads to attachment affect = higher willingness to pay, because not buying carries increased sense of loss. Read carefully section on driving.
30 Risk Attitudes KR apply model to settings with risk, extend it. Distinguish between surprise and anticipated risk Predicts distaste for insuring losses when risk is a surprise But first-order risk aversion when risk, possibility of insurance is anticipated Expectation of taking on risk decreases aversion to both anticipated and any additional risk For large-scale risk, consumption utility dominates
31 Unanticipated Risk Thinking about low-probability situations, model in extreme form as situations where expectations are exogenous. Example: Risk: gain 0, lose $100 Choice: pay $55 to insure? If expected status quo, prediction is same as prospect theory: don t insure because of diminishing sensitivity. If expected to get insurance, paying $55 generates no gain/loss, while gamble coded as lose $45, gain $55. With standard 2-to-1 loss aversion, wouldn t take gamble. If initially expected the risk, paying $0 can decrease expected losses, losing $100 might decrease expected gains, so gamble doesn t look so risky. Can interpret as endowment effect for risk: When ex ante expected uncertainty is large, $100 doesn t have much effect on whether outcome is coded as loss or gain, so person is
32 New Definitions Import old definition of PE, but call it UPE now, for unacclimating personal equilibrium. Reference point fixed by past expectations, taken as given. PPE is favorite UPE. New: Choice-acclimating personal equilibrium (CPE). Decision affects reference point. CPE decision maximizes expected utility given that it determines both the reference lottery and the outcome lottery.
Beliefs-Based Preferences (Part I) April 14, 2009
Beliefs-Based Preferences (Part I) April 14, 2009 Where are we? Prospect Theory Modeling reference-dependent preferences RD-VNM model w/ loss-aversion Easy to use, but r is taken as given What s the problem?
More informationReference Dependence Lecture 1
Reference Dependence Lecture 1 Mark Dean Princeton University - Behavioral Economics Plan for this Part of Course Bounded Rationality (4 lectures) Reference dependence (3 lectures) Neuroeconomics (2 lectures)
More informationReference-Dependent Risk Attitudes
Preliminary Draft Comments Appreciated Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes Botond Kőszegi Department of Economics University of California Berkeley and Matthew Rabin Department of Economics University of
More informationReference-Dependent Consumption Plans
Reference-Dependent Consumption Plans Botond Kőszegi and Matthew Rabin Department of Economics University of California Berkeley First Draft: June 2006 This Draft: January 2008 Abstract: We develop a dynamic
More informationChoice Under Uncertainty (Chapter 12)
Choice Under Uncertainty (Chapter 12) January 6, 2011 Teaching Assistants Updated: Name Email OH Greg Leo gleo[at]umail TR 2-3, PHELP 1420 Dan Saunders saunders[at]econ R 9-11, HSSB 1237 Rish Singhania
More informationPh.D. Preliminary Examination MICROECONOMIC THEORY Applied Economics Graduate Program August 2017
Ph.D. Preliminary Examination MICROECONOMIC THEORY Applied Economics Graduate Program August 2017 The time limit for this exam is four hours. The exam has four sections. Each section includes two questions.
More informationSTOCHASTIC CONSUMPTION-SAVINGS MODEL: CANONICAL APPLICATIONS SEPTEMBER 13, 2010 BASICS. Introduction
STOCASTIC CONSUMPTION-SAVINGS MODE: CANONICA APPICATIONS SEPTEMBER 3, 00 Introduction BASICS Consumption-Savings Framework So far only a deterministic analysis now introduce uncertainty Still an application
More informationUncertainty in Equilibrium
Uncertainty in Equilibrium Larry Blume May 1, 2007 1 Introduction The state-preference approach to uncertainty of Kenneth J. Arrow (1953) and Gérard Debreu (1959) lends itself rather easily to Walrasian
More informationFinancial Economics Field Exam January 2008
Financial Economics Field Exam January 2008 There are two questions on the exam, representing Asset Pricing (236D = 234A) and Corporate Finance (234C). Please answer both questions to the best of your
More informationComparison of Payoff Distributions in Terms of Return and Risk
Comparison of Payoff Distributions in Terms of Return and Risk Preliminaries We treat, for convenience, money as a continuous variable when dealing with monetary outcomes. Strictly speaking, the derivation
More informationSTOCHASTIC CONSUMPTION-SAVINGS MODEL: CANONICAL APPLICATIONS FEBRUARY 19, 2013
STOCHASTIC CONSUMPTION-SAVINGS MODEL: CANONICAL APPLICATIONS FEBRUARY 19, 2013 Model Structure EXPECTED UTILITY Preferences v(c 1, c 2 ) with all the usual properties Lifetime expected utility function
More informationSlides III - Complete Markets
Slides III - Complete Markets Julio Garín University of Georgia Macroeconomic Theory II (Ph.D.) Spring 2017 Macroeconomic Theory II Slides III - Complete Markets Spring 2017 1 / 33 Outline 1. Risk, Uncertainty,
More informationLecture 12: Introduction to reasoning under uncertainty. Actions and Consequences
Lecture 12: Introduction to reasoning under uncertainty Preferences Utility functions Maximizing expected utility Value of information Bandit problems and the exploration-exploitation trade-off COMP-424,
More informationChapter 23: Choice under Risk
Chapter 23: Choice under Risk 23.1: Introduction We consider in this chapter optimal behaviour in conditions of risk. By this we mean that, when the individual takes a decision, he or she does not know
More informationLecture 10 Game Plan. Hidden actions, moral hazard, and incentives. Hidden traits, adverse selection, and signaling/screening
Lecture 10 Game Plan Hidden actions, moral hazard, and incentives Hidden traits, adverse selection, and signaling/screening 1 Hidden Information A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. So is a lot. -
More informationCONSUMPTION-SAVINGS MODEL JANUARY 19, 2018
CONSUMPTION-SAVINGS MODEL JANUARY 19, 018 Stochastic Consumption-Savings Model APPLICATIONS Use (solution to) stochastic two-period model to illustrate some basic results and ideas in Consumption research
More informationAnswers to Microeconomics Prelim of August 24, In practice, firms often price their products by marking up a fixed percentage over (average)
Answers to Microeconomics Prelim of August 24, 2016 1. In practice, firms often price their products by marking up a fixed percentage over (average) cost. To investigate the consequences of markup pricing,
More informationLoss Aversion Leading to Advantageous Selection
Loss Aversion Leading to Advantageous Selection Christina Aperjis and Filippo Balestrieri HP Labs [This version April 211. Work in progress. Please do not circulate.] Abstract Even though classic economic
More information05/05/2011. Degree of Risk. Degree of Risk. BUSA 4800/4810 May 5, Uncertainty
BUSA 4800/4810 May 5, 2011 Uncertainty We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don t like? Jean Cocteau Degree of Risk We incorporate risk and uncertainty into our
More informationFinish what s been left... CS286r Fall 08 Finish what s been left... 1
Finish what s been left... CS286r Fall 08 Finish what s been left... 1 Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium A strategy-belief pair, (σ, µ) is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium if (Beliefs) At every information set
More informationContext Dependent Preferences
Context Dependent Preferences Mark Dean Behavioral Economics G6943 Fall 2016 Context Dependent Preferences So far, we have assumed that utility comes from the final outcome they receive People make choices
More informationANASH EQUILIBRIUM of a strategic game is an action profile in which every. Strategy Equilibrium
Draft chapter from An introduction to game theory by Martin J. Osborne. Version: 2002/7/23. Martin.Osborne@utoronto.ca http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/osborne Copyright 1995 2002 by Martin J. Osborne.
More informationName. Final Exam, Economics 210A, December 2014 Answer any 7 of these 8 questions Good luck!
Name Final Exam, Economics 210A, December 2014 Answer any 7 of these 8 questions Good luck! 1) For each of the following statements, state whether it is true or false. If it is true, prove that it is true.
More informationConsumption and Asset Pricing
Consumption and Asset Pricing Yin-Chi Wang The Chinese University of Hong Kong November, 2012 References: Williamson s lecture notes (2006) ch5 and ch 6 Further references: Stochastic dynamic programming:
More informationu (x) < 0. and if you believe in diminishing return of the wealth, then you would require
Chapter 8 Markowitz Portfolio Theory 8.7 Investor Utility Functions People are always asked the question: would more money make you happier? The answer is usually yes. The next question is how much more
More informationRational Inattention. Mark Dean. Behavioral Economics Spring 2017
Rational Inattention Mark Dean Behavioral Economics Spring 2017 The Story So Far... (Hopefully) convinced you that attention costs are important Introduced the satisficing model of search and choice But,
More informationProblem Set 2. Theory of Banking - Academic Year Maria Bachelet March 2, 2017
Problem Set Theory of Banking - Academic Year 06-7 Maria Bachelet maria.jua.bachelet@gmai.com March, 07 Exercise Consider an agency relationship in which the principal contracts the agent, whose effort
More informationLecture 11: Critiques of Expected Utility
Lecture 11: Critiques of Expected Utility Alexander Wolitzky MIT 14.121 1 Expected Utility and Its Discontents Expected utility (EU) is the workhorse model of choice under uncertainty. From very early
More informationIntroduction to Economics I: Consumer Theory
Introduction to Economics I: Consumer Theory Leslie Reinhorn Durham University Business School October 2014 What is Economics? Typical De nitions: "Economics is the social science that deals with the production,
More informationUse (solution to) stochastic two-period model to illustrate some basic results and ideas in Consumption research Asset pricing research
TOCATIC CONUMPTION-AVING MODE: CANONICA APPICATION EPTEMBER 4, 0 s APPICATION Use (solution to stochastic two-period model to illustrate some basic results and ideas in Consumption research Asset pricing
More informationNotes 10: Risk and Uncertainty
Economics 335 April 19, 1999 A. Introduction Notes 10: Risk and Uncertainty 1. Basic Types of Uncertainty in Agriculture a. production b. prices 2. Examples of Uncertainty in Agriculture a. crop yields
More informationThe Limits of Reciprocal Altruism
The Limits of Reciprocal Altruism Larry Blume & Klaus Ritzberger Cornell University & IHS & The Santa Fe Institute Introduction Why bats? Gerald Wilkinson, Reciprocal food sharing in the vampire bat. Nature
More informationModels and Decision with Financial Applications UNIT 1: Elements of Decision under Uncertainty
Models and Decision with Financial Applications UNIT 1: Elements of Decision under Uncertainty We always need to make a decision (or select from among actions, options or moves) even when there exists
More informationCredit II Lecture 25
Credit II Lecture 25 November 27, 2012 Operation of the Credit Market Last Tuesday I began the discussion of the credit market (Chapter 14 in Development Economics. I presented material through Section
More informationBEEM109 Experimental Economics and Finance
University of Exeter Recap Last class we looked at the axioms of expected utility, which defined a rational agent as proposed by von Neumann and Morgenstern. We then proceeded to look at empirical evidence
More information1 Rational Expectations Equilibrium
1 Rational Expectations Euilibrium S - the (finite) set of states of the world - also use S to denote the number m - number of consumers K- number of physical commodities each trader has an endowment vector
More informationHow do we cope with uncertainty?
Topic 3: Choice under uncertainty (K&R Ch. 6) In 1965, a Frenchman named Raffray thought that he had found a great deal: He would pay a 90-year-old woman $500 a month until she died, then move into her
More informationReference Dependence Lecture 3
Reference Dependence Lecture 3 Mark Dean Princeton University - Behavioral Economics The Story So Far De ned reference dependent behavior and given examples Change in risk attitudes Endowment e ect Status
More informationGeneral Examination in Microeconomic Theory SPRING 2014
HARVARD UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS General Examination in Microeconomic Theory SPRING 2014 You have FOUR hours. Answer all questions Those taking the FINAL have THREE hours Part A (Glaeser): 55
More informationAn Equilibrium Model of the Crash
Fischer Black An Equilibrium Model of the Crash 1. Summary Presented in this paper is a view of the market break on October 19, 1987 that fits much of what we know. I assume that investors' tastes changed
More informationExpected Prices as Reference Points - Theory and Experiments
Lukas Wenner Expected Prices as Reference Points - Theory and Experiments Discussion Paper SP II 2014 306 September 2014 Research Area Markets and Choice Research Unit Economics of Change Wissenschaftszentrum
More informationTax Compliance: A Behavioral Economics Approach
Tax Compliance: A Behavioral Economics Approach Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Leicester by Teimuraz Gogsadze Department of Economics University of Leicester
More informationLoss Aversion leading to Advantageous Selection
Loss Aversion leading to Advantageous Selection Christina Aperjis, Filippo Balestrieri HP Laboratories HPL-211-29 Keyword(s): loss aversion; insurance Abstract: We show that expectation-based loss aversion
More informationWe examine the impact of risk aversion on bidding behavior in first-price auctions.
Risk Aversion We examine the impact of risk aversion on bidding behavior in first-price auctions. Assume there is no entry fee or reserve. Note: Risk aversion does not affect bidding in SPA because there,
More informationUncertainty. Contingent consumption Subjective probability. Utility functions. BEE2017 Microeconomics
Uncertainty BEE217 Microeconomics Uncertainty: The share prices of Amazon and the difficulty of investment decisions Contingent consumption 1. What consumption or wealth will you get in each possible outcome
More informationCHOICE THEORY, UTILITY FUNCTIONS AND RISK AVERSION
CHOICE THEORY, UTILITY FUNCTIONS AND RISK AVERSION Szabolcs Sebestyén szabolcs.sebestyen@iscte.pt Master in Finance INVESTMENTS Sebestyén (ISCTE-IUL) Choice Theory Investments 1 / 65 Outline 1 An Introduction
More informationInflation & Welfare 1
1 INFLATION & WELFARE ROBERT E. LUCAS 2 Introduction In a monetary economy, private interest is to hold not non-interest bearing cash. Individual efforts due to this incentive must cancel out, because
More informationPrice Theory of Two-Sided Markets
The E. Glen Weyl Department of Economics Princeton University Fundação Getulio Vargas August 3, 2007 Definition of a two-sided market 1 Two groups of consumers 2 Value from connecting (proportional to
More informationBanks and Liquidity Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Banks and Liquidity Crises in Emerging Market Economies Tarishi Matsuoka Tokyo Metropolitan University May, 2015 Tarishi Matsuoka (TMU) Banking Crises in Emerging Market Economies May, 2015 1 / 47 Introduction
More informationAdvanced Microeconomics
Advanced Microeconomics ECON5200 - Fall 2014 Introduction What you have done: - consumers maximize their utility subject to budget constraints and firms maximize their profits given technology and market
More information1 Consumption and saving under uncertainty
1 Consumption and saving under uncertainty 1.1 Modelling uncertainty As in the deterministic case, we keep assuming that agents live for two periods. The novelty here is that their earnings in the second
More informationEconomics 101A (Lecture 25) Stefano DellaVigna
Economics 101A (Lecture 25) Stefano DellaVigna April 29, 2014 Outline 1. Hidden Action (Moral Hazard) II 2. The Takeover Game 3. Hidden Type (Adverse Selection) 4. Evidence of Hidden Type and Hidden Action
More informationMICROECONOMIC THEROY CONSUMER THEORY
LECTURE 5 MICROECONOMIC THEROY CONSUMER THEORY Choice under Uncertainty (MWG chapter 6, sections A-C, and Cowell chapter 8) Lecturer: Andreas Papandreou 1 Introduction p Contents n Expected utility theory
More informationNotes on Syllabus Section VI: TIME AND UNCERTAINTY, FUTURES MARKETS
Economics 200B UCSD; Prof. R. Starr, Ms. Kaitlyn Lewis, Winter 2017; Syllabus Section VI Notes1 Notes on Syllabus Section VI: TIME AND UNCERTAINTY, FUTURES MARKETS Overview: The mathematical abstraction
More informationMarket Selection Leonid Kogan, Stephen Ross, Jiang Wang and Mark M Westerfield
Market Selection Leonid Kogan, Stephen Ross, Jiang Wang and Mark M Westerfield May 2009 1 The Market Selection Hypothesis Old Version: (Friedman 1953): Agents who trade based inaccurate beliefs will lose
More informationDecision Analysis. Introduction. Job Counseling
Decision Analysis Max, min, minimax, maximin, maximax, minimin All good cat names! 1 Introduction Models provide insight and understanding We make decisions Decision making is difficult because: future
More informationRandomizing Endowments: An Experimental Study of Rational Expectations and Reference-Dependent Preferences
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 8639 Randomizing Endowments: An Experimental Study of Rational Expectations and Reference-Dependent Preferences Lorenz Goette Annette Harms Charles Sprenger November
More informationFinancial Crises, Dollarization and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies
Financial Crises, Dollarization and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies Luigi Bocola Stanford, Minneapolis Fed, and NBER Guido Lorenzoni Northwestern and NBER Restud Tour Reunion Conference May 2018
More informationUC Berkeley Haas School of Business Economic Analysis for Business Decisions (EWMBA 201A) Fall Module I
UC Berkeley Haas School of Business Economic Analysis for Business Decisions (EWMBA 201A) Fall 2018 Module I The consumers Decision making under certainty (PR 3.1-3.4) Decision making under uncertainty
More informationMaturity, Indebtedness and Default Risk 1
Maturity, Indebtedness and Default Risk 1 Satyajit Chatterjee Burcu Eyigungor Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia February 15, 2008 1 Corresponding Author: Satyajit Chatterjee, Research Dept., 10 Independence
More informationGraduate Macro Theory II: Two Period Consumption-Saving Models
Graduate Macro Theory II: Two Period Consumption-Saving Models Eric Sims University of Notre Dame Spring 207 Introduction This note works through some simple two-period consumption-saving problems. In
More informationSupplement to the lecture on the Diamond-Dybvig model
ECON 4335 Economics of Banking, Fall 2016 Jacopo Bizzotto 1 Supplement to the lecture on the Diamond-Dybvig model The model in Diamond and Dybvig (1983) incorporates important features of the real world:
More information14.05 Lecture Notes. Endogenous Growth
14.05 Lecture Notes Endogenous Growth George-Marios Angeletos MIT Department of Economics April 3, 2013 1 George-Marios Angeletos 1 The Simple AK Model In this section we consider the simplest version
More informationE&G, Chap 10 - Utility Analysis; the Preference Structure, Uncertainty - Developing Indifference Curves in {E(R),σ(R)} Space.
1 E&G, Chap 10 - Utility Analysis; the Preference Structure, Uncertainty - Developing Indifference Curves in {E(R),σ(R)} Space. A. Overview. c 2 1. With Certainty, objects of choice (c 1, c 2 ) 2. With
More informationCUR 412: Game Theory and its Applications, Lecture 4
CUR 412: Game Theory and its Applications, Lecture 4 Prof. Ronaldo CARPIO March 22, 2015 Homework #1 Homework #1 will be due at the end of class today. Please check the website later today for the solutions
More informationApril 29, X ( ) for all. Using to denote a true type and areport,let
April 29, 2015 "A Characterization of Efficient, Bayesian Incentive Compatible Mechanisms," by S. R. Williams. Economic Theory 14, 155-180 (1999). AcommonresultinBayesianmechanismdesignshowsthatexpostefficiency
More informationLecture 18 - Information, Adverse Selection, and Insurance Markets
Lecture 18 - Information, Adverse Selection, and Insurance Markets 14.03 Spring 2003 1 Lecture 18 - Information, Adverse Selection, and Insurance Markets 1.1 Introduction Risk is costly to bear (in utility
More informationModels of Reference Dependent Preferences
Models of Reference Dependent Preferences Mark Dean Behavioral Economics G6943 Autumn 2018 Modelling Reference Dependence Likely that there are many different causes of reference dependence As we discussed
More informationProject Risk Analysis and Management Exercises (Part II, Chapters 6, 7)
Project Risk Analysis and Management Exercises (Part II, Chapters 6, 7) Chapter II.6 Exercise 1 For the decision tree in Figure 1, assume Chance Events E and F are independent. a) Draw the appropriate
More informationRadner Equilibrium: Definition and Equivalence with Arrow-Debreu Equilibrium
Radner Equilibrium: Definition and Equivalence with Arrow-Debreu Equilibrium Econ 2100 Fall 2017 Lecture 24, November 28 Outline 1 Sequential Trade and Arrow Securities 2 Radner Equilibrium 3 Equivalence
More information1 Asset Pricing: Bonds vs Stocks
Asset Pricing: Bonds vs Stocks The historical data on financial asset returns show that one dollar invested in the Dow- Jones yields 6 times more than one dollar invested in U.S. Treasury bonds. The return
More informationCS711: Introduction to Game Theory and Mechanism Design
CS711: Introduction to Game Theory and Mechanism Design Teacher: Swaprava Nath Domination, Elimination of Dominated Strategies, Nash Equilibrium Domination Normal form game N, (S i ) i N, (u i ) i N Definition
More informationMarkus K. Brunnermeier and Jonathan Parker. October 25, Princeton University. Optimal Expectations. Brunnermeier & Parker. Framework.
Optimal Markus K. and Jonathan Parker Princeton University October 25, 2006 rational view Bayesian rationality Non-Bayesian rational expectations Lucas rationality rational view Bayesian rationality Non-Bayesian
More informationCMSC 474, Introduction to Game Theory 16. Behavioral vs. Mixed Strategies
CMSC 474, Introduction to Game Theory 16. Behavioral vs. Mixed Strategies Mohammad T. Hajiaghayi University of Maryland Behavioral Strategies In imperfect-information extensive-form games, we can define
More informationOne-Period Valuation Theory
One-Period Valuation Theory Part 2: Chris Telmer March, 2013 1 / 44 1. Pricing kernel and financial risk 2. Linking state prices to portfolio choice Euler equation 3. Application: Corporate financial leverage
More informationBailouts, Bail-ins and Banking Crises
Bailouts, Bail-ins and Banking Crises Todd Keister Rutgers University Yuliyan Mitkov Rutgers University & University of Bonn 2017 HKUST Workshop on Macroeconomics June 15, 2017 The bank runs problem Intermediaries
More informationModels of Directed Search - Labor Market Dynamics, Optimal UI, and Student Credit
Models of Directed Search - Labor Market Dynamics, Optimal UI, and Student Credit Florian Hoffmann, UBC June 4-6, 2012 Markets Workshop, Chicago Fed Why Equilibrium Search Theory of Labor Market? Theory
More informationw E(Q w) w/100 E(Q w) w/
14.03 Fall 2000 Problem Set 7 Solutions Theory: 1. If used cars sell for $1,000 and non-defective cars have a value of $6,000, then all cars in the used market must be defective. Hence the value of a defective
More informationPROBLEM SET 7 ANSWERS: Answers to Exercises in Jean Tirole s Theory of Industrial Organization
PROBLEM SET 7 ANSWERS: Answers to Exercises in Jean Tirole s Theory of Industrial Organization 12 December 2006. 0.1 (p. 26), 0.2 (p. 41), 1.2 (p. 67) and 1.3 (p.68) 0.1** (p. 26) In the text, it is assumed
More informationTopics in Contract Theory Lecture 3
Leonardo Felli 9 January, 2002 Topics in Contract Theory Lecture 3 Consider now a different cause for the failure of the Coase Theorem: the presence of transaction costs. Of course for this to be an interesting
More informationGame theory and applications: Lecture 1
Game theory and applications: Lecture 1 Adam Szeidl September 20, 2018 Outline for today 1 Some applications of game theory 2 Games in strategic form 3 Dominance 4 Nash equilibrium 1 / 8 1. Some applications
More informationOn the analysis and optimal asset allocation of pension funds in regret theoretic framework
On the analysis and optimal asset allocation of pension funds in regret theoretic framework 1. Introduction The major contribution of this paper lies in the use of regret theory to analyse the optimal
More informationFinal Examination December 14, Economics 5010 AF3.0 : Applied Microeconomics. time=2.5 hours
YORK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Graduate Studies Final Examination December 14, 2010 Economics 5010 AF3.0 : Applied Microeconomics S. Bucovetsky time=2.5 hours Do any 6 of the following 10 questions. All count
More informationProblem set 5. Asset pricing. Markus Roth. Chair for Macroeconomics Johannes Gutenberg Universität Mainz. Juli 5, 2010
Problem set 5 Asset pricing Markus Roth Chair for Macroeconomics Johannes Gutenberg Universität Mainz Juli 5, 200 Markus Roth (Macroeconomics 2) Problem set 5 Juli 5, 200 / 40 Contents Problem 5 of problem
More informationMicroeconomic Theory May 2013 Applied Economics. Ph.D. PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION MICROECONOMIC THEORY. Applied Economics Graduate Program.
Ph.D. PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION MICROECONOMIC THEORY Applied Economics Graduate Program May 2013 *********************************************** COVER SHEET ***********************************************
More informationOptimal Taxation : (c) Optimal Income Taxation
Optimal Taxation : (c) Optimal Income Taxation Optimal income taxation is quite a different problem than optimal commodity taxation. In optimal commodity taxation the issue was which commodities to tax,
More informationChapter 7 Review questions
Chapter 7 Review questions 71 What is the Nash equilibrium in a dictator game? What about the trust game and ultimatum game? Be careful to distinguish sub game perfect Nash equilibria from other Nash equilibria
More information4 Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance market
4 Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance market Firms simultaneously offer contracts in final wealth, ( 1 2 ), space. state 1 - no accident, and state 2 - accident Premiumpaidinallstates, 1 claim (payment from
More informationLecture 2 General Equilibrium Models: Finite Period Economies
Lecture 2 General Equilibrium Models: Finite Period Economies Introduction In macroeconomics, we study the behavior of economy-wide aggregates e.g. GDP, savings, investment, employment and so on - and
More informationMicroeconomics (Uncertainty & Behavioural Economics, Ch 05)
Microeconomics (Uncertainty & Behavioural Economics, Ch 05) Lecture 23 Apr 10, 2017 Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior To examine the ways that people can compare and choose among risky alternatives, we
More informationThe Macroeconomics of Credit Market Imperfections (Part I): Static Models
The Macroeconomics of Credit Market Imperfections (Part I): Static Models Jin Cao 1 1 Munich Graduate School of Economics, LMU Munich Reading Group: Topics of Macroeconomics (SS08) Outline Motivation Bridging
More informationWhat are the additional assumptions that must be satisfied for Rabin s theorem to hold?
Exam ECON 4260, Spring 2013 Suggested answers to Problems 1, 2 and 4 Problem 1 (counts 10%) Rabin s theorem shows that if a person is risk averse in a small gamble, then it follows as a logical consequence
More informationProblem Set (1 p) (1) 1 (100)
University of British Columbia Department of Economics, Macroeconomics (Econ 0) Prof. Amartya Lahiri Problem Set Risk Aversion Suppose your preferences are given by u(c) = c ; > 0 Suppose you face the
More informationThe mean-variance portfolio choice framework and its generalizations
The mean-variance portfolio choice framework and its generalizations Prof. Massimo Guidolin 20135 Theory of Finance, Part I (Sept. October) Fall 2014 Outline and objectives The backward, three-step solution
More informationMacroeconomics I Chapter 3. Consumption
Toulouse School of Economics Notes written by Ernesto Pasten (epasten@cict.fr) Slightly re-edited by Frank Portier (fportier@cict.fr) M-TSE. Macro I. 200-20. Chapter 3: Consumption Macroeconomics I Chapter
More informationUC Berkeley Haas School of Business Economic Analysis for Business Decisions (EWMBA 201A) Fall Module I
UC Berkeley Haas School of Business Economic Analysis for Business Decisions (EWMBA 201A) Fall 2016 Module I The consumers Decision making under certainty (PR 3.1-3.4) Decision making under uncertainty
More informationPrice Theory Lecture 9: Choice Under Uncertainty
I. Probability and Expected Value Price Theory Lecture 9: Choice Under Uncertainty In all that we have done so far, we've assumed that choices are being made under conditions of certainty -- prices are
More informationAlmost essential MICROECONOMICS
Prerequisites Almost essential Games: Mixed Strategies GAMES: UNCERTAINTY MICROECONOMICS Principles and Analysis Frank Cowell April 2018 1 Overview Games: Uncertainty Basic structure Introduction to the
More informationAn Experiment on Reference Points and Expectations
An Experiment on Reference Points and Expectations Changcheng Song 1 National University of Singapore May, 2012 Abstract I conducted a controlled lab experiment to test to what extent expectations and
More informationMarket Liquidity and Performance Monitoring The main idea The sequence of events: Technology and information
Market Liquidity and Performance Monitoring Holmstrom and Tirole (JPE, 1993) The main idea A firm would like to issue shares in the capital market because once these shares are publicly traded, speculators
More information