ZDA

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Malcolm Brown
5 years ago
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1 31 3 Vol. 31 No Research of Finance and Education May. 2018, ( SDR),,,, , ( VECM),,, :,, ; ; ; : F822 : A : ( 2018) AIIB IMF SDR Bergsten Krugman Chinn Frankel Lim ' 15ZDA

2 GDP ( ) Eichengreen ( ) ( ) ( )

3 3 5 ( ) share gdp trade stock appreciation movleadershare share gdp trade stock GDP appreciation BIS movleadershare Eviews share gdp trade stock GDP Appreciation movleadershare 2 share gdp trade stock Appreciation movleadershare ( ) 1. ADF 3 lnmovleadershare 3 ADF lnshare Dlnshare lngdp Dlngdp lntrade Dlntrade c t k AIC SC ADF ADF 5% c t c t

4 lnstock Dlnstock lnappreciation Dlnappreciation lnmovleadershare c t k AIC SC ADF ADF 5% c c c t c : ( c,t,k), k, D 2. Granger Granger Granger Granger lnshare lngdp lntrade lnappreciation Granger 4 4 F P 1 lngdp lnshare lnshare lngdp lntrade lnshare lnshare lntrade lnappreciation lnshare ** 1 lnshare lnappreciation lntrade lngdp ** 1 lngdp lntrade ** 1 lnappreciation lngdp ** 1 lngdp lnappreciation lnappreciation lntrade lntrade lnappreciation lngdp lnshare lnshare lngdp lntrade lnshare lnshare lntrade lnappreciation lnshare lnshare lnappreciation lntrade lngdp lngdp lntrade * 2 lnappreciation lngdp lngdp lnappreciation lnappreciation lntrade lntrade lnappreciation : * ** 10% 5% 10% lnshare lngdp lntrade lnappreciation lnstock lnstock lnmovleadershare Granger lnmovleadershare

5 Johanson AIC SC a P 5% 0 * * b P 5% 0 * * : * 5% 5% lnshare β = lnshare = lngdp lntrade lnappreciation % 1. 76% 1% 0. 82% 1% 0. 14% 4. VECM Granger VECM AR 1 VECM 1 1 AR VECM

8 2018 VECM VECM 5 1 5 VEC VEC D lnshare D lngdp D lntrade D lnappreciation ECM t - 1 0. 21402 0. 09839 0. 07783 0. 10448-0. 128167 0. 504705 0. 320842 0. 438702-0. 59885 5. 12939 4. 12238 4.

6 VECM VECM VEC VEC D lnshare D lngdp D lntrade D lnappreciation ECM t D lnshare D lnshare D lngdp D lngdp D lntrade D lntrade D lnappreciation D lnappreciation lnmovleadershare : ( ),[ ] t Dlnshare t = ECM t Dlnshare t Dlnshare t Dlngdp t Dlngdp t Dlntrade t Dlntrade t Dlnappreciation t Dlnappreciation t lnmovleadershare 2

7 3 9 ECM t - 1 = lnshare t lngdp t lntrade t lnappreciation t ECM % Dlnshare Dlngdp Dlngdp Dlnshare Dlngdp Dlntrade Dlntrade Dlntrade Dlnshare Dlnappreciation Dlnappreciation lnappreciation l ( ) VECM ( ) 180

8 % IMF SDR 14 1 Bergsten Fred C. The Dilemma of the Dollar The Economies and Politics of United States International Mone- 1.

9 3 11 tary Policy M. New York New York University Press Krugman Paul. Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange J. Journal of Money Credit and Banking Menzie Chinn Jeffrey Frankel. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency R. NBER Conference Paper No Ewe - Ghee Lim. The Euro 's Challenge to the Dollar Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER and Other Data R. IMF Working Paper NO J J J J J J J J Eichengreen B. The euro as a reserve currency J. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies J A Study on the Influencing Factors of Yen's Internationalization and its Inspiration to RMB's Internationalization XIAO Yaofei ZENG Peng Guangdong University of Foreign Studies Guangzhou Guangdong China Abstract Currency internationalization is a process which a country's currency plays the role of pricing settlement transaction and reserve currency in international economic activity. As the RMB becomes the currency basket of the IMF's Special drawing Rights SDR further promoting the internationalization of RMB is undoubtedly of great significance. This paper synthesizes all kinds of factors and chooses Japan which is similar to all aspects of China in the process of internationalization as the research subject. By using theoretical analysis and empirical test method from the economic scale the scale of trade the exchange rate level of the yen the stiction of the dominant international currency dollar and other factors by the annual data from 1976 to 2014 it uses the vector error correction model VECM to test the correlation between the internationalization level of yen and its influencing factors. The results show that the economic scale the scale of trade the level of exchange rate of Yen are positively correlated with the internationalization of Yen and the dollar the dominant international currency is negatively related to the internationalization of Japanese yen. Thus from the experience of the internationalization of the yen we get the enlightenment to the internationalization of the RMB continue to promote the healthy development of the national e- conomy and foreign trade keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable and long - term appreciation trend improve the domestic financial system and steadily push forward the financial market opening to the world overcome the squeeze of US dollar to the internationalization of RMB. Key words Yen's internationalization RMB's internationalization offshore financial markets the Belt and Road ( : )

The Renminbi s Ascendance in International Finance

257 COMMENTARY The Renminbi s Ascendance in International Finance Menzie Chinn In this wide-ranging review of recent developments involving the progress in renminbi internationalization, Eswar Prasad concludes,