Market Outlook from North of 60

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Market Outlook from North of 60"

Octavia Wilson
5 years ago
Views:

1 Market Outlook from North of 60 By Gobind Khiani, P.Eng, M.Eng, BSc, C.Eng, Director 1 Piping Systems and Material Engineering. Fluor Canada Ltd

2 The Decade Ahead : Oilsands Labour Market Outlook to 2021 OIL SANDS EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK TO 2021 Between 2012 and 2021, the overall number of jobs in the oil sands sector will increase to approximately 35,000, or a 73 per cent increase from 2011 levels. By 2021: In situ operations will employ almost half (48 per cent) of the oil sands workforce. Mining operations will remain a key employer in the sector, accounting for 38 per cent of the workforce. Upgrading will employ 14 per cent of the workforce.

3 Labour Market Trend in OilSands

4 Work Force Solutions in OilSands, Courtesy of PLMI(A Divn of EnForm), CAPP and Govt of Canada, Labour Deptt

5 Employees required by Year/s Current # 95,000 approx by end of 2012Final 2013 Expected # 97, Expected# 102, Expected# 110, Expected # 120,131 NOTE: Data provided by CAPP, IPHRSC(A Divn of EnForm, Govt. of Canada Labor Market)

6 Oilsands Production Growth

7 The Top Five Suppliers of Oil to the United States in 2012 Canada 2.4Million bpd Saudi Arabia 1.4 Million bpd Venezuela 906,000bpd Mexico 972,000bpd Iraq 474,000bpd

8 Tight oil helps Alberta solidify energy superpower status, Financial Post Friday June 7 th 2013 While the oil sands grab all the headlines, conventional oil from Alberta is also likely to emerge as a strong contributor, cementing the province s position as an energy albeit landlocked superpower, leaving other provinces in the dust. The concentration of output in Alberta means pipelines and railway issues will only magnify as nature appears to have played a cruel joke by bestowing geological riches on the province, but spiked it with geographic constraints. The Canadian Association Petroleum Producers bullish, almost defiant, forecast, published this week, shows Alberta oil sands and tight oil production growing leaps and bounds, almost unconstrained by market access issues. Oil sand s production alone will double from current levels in a decade and reach 5.2 million barrels per day of production by Total Canadian crude production will hit 6.7 million barrels per day, expected to be the fourth largest in the world by that time.

10 Alberta OilSands Projects and Upgraders

MILES) OIL SANDS DEPOSITS (54,900 SQUARE MILES) OIL SANDS SURFACE MINEABLE AREA (1,850

11 Alberta OilSands Projects and Upgraders ALBERTA OILSANDS PROVEN RESERVES OF 169 BILLION BARRELS 3 RD LARGEST PROVEN CRUDE OIL RESERVE IN THE WORLD BOREAL FOREST (147,000 SQUARE MILES) OIL SANDS DEPOSITS (54,900 SQUARE MILES) OIL SANDS SURFACE MINEABLE AREA (1,850 SQUARE MILES) OIL SANDS MINEABLE AREA CURRENTLY DISTURBED (230 SQUARE MILES) 3% OF THE OIL SANDS AREA

12 Inventory of Major Alberta Projects Summary June 2013 Sector Number of Projects Total Value of Projects Agriculture and Related 6 $ Million Biofuels 5 $ Million Chemicals and Petrochemicals 3 $1, Million Commercial / Retail 95 $8, Million Commercial / Retail and Residential 4 $2, Million Forestry and Related 3 $ Million Infrastructure 260 $13, Million Institutional 121 $6, Million Manufacturing 2 $17.50 Million Mining 3 $ Million Oil and Gas 14 $10, Million Oil Sands 67 $115, Million Other Industrial 8 $ Million Pipelines 49 $24, Million Power 27 $9, Million Residential 111 $2, Million Telecommunications 2 $ Million Tourism / Recreation 89 $3, Million Total 869 $202, Million

13 Current Plants Templates in Canada

14 What Are OilSands Oilsands are, primarily, a mixture of sand, bitumen and water. When oilsands deposits are close to the surface of the earth, traditional extraction methods can be used. The oilsands are mined from an open pit using shovels and trucks (like the CAT 797), and then transported to a processing facility. For mining to be economical, the bitumen has to be very shallow (i.e metres below ground level). Oil deposits at Foster Creek and Christina Lake are deeper than 300 metres beneath the surface, too deep for efficient open pit mining. Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is used to extract the oil from these deep deposits. SAGD is an enhanced oil recovery technique, meaning that oil is brought to the surface while leaving the sand in place.

OilSands Extraction Method The lower well the Producer is drilled to run horizontally, close to the bottom of the bitumen zone (called the bottom of pay ), just above the dense carbonate/limestone at

15 OilSands Extraction Method The lower well the Producer is drilled to run horizontally, close to the bottom of the bitumen zone (called the bottom of pay ), just above the dense carbonate/limestone at the bottom of the McMurray Formation. The Producer is completed with Slotted Liner (which is, basically, a big pipe with cuts sawed into the perimeter). The well is also completed, inside, with various tubing strings including: tubing for steam injection, tubing for oil removal, and an instrumentation string with thermocouples to monitor the well temperature

16 PIPING SYSTEMS SELECTION CRITERIA FLANGE DESIGN ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF FLANGE FACING FINISH MECHANICAL REACTIONS OF FLANGES AT ASSEMBLY TYPE OF FLANGE SERVICE REQUIREMENTS BOLT SELECTION MATERIALS RELATIONSHIP TO FLANGE ASSEMBLY/BOLTING, TORQUING, TENSIONING PROCESS CONDITIONS GASKET SELECTION BEST PRACTICE, SEE NEXT SLIDE DETAILING SELECTION CRITERIAS JOINT ASSEMBLY CRITERIA AFFECTING ASSEMBLY/DISASSEMBLY (GASKET STRESS, BOLT TORQUING, ETC) SPECIALTY JOINTS REPAIR PROCESS CONDITIONS AND AVAILABLE INSTALLATIION SPACE 16

17 GASKETS SELECTION CRITERIA GASKET TYPE GASKET SOLUTIONS GASKET CONSTRUCTION GASKET MATERIAL GRAPHITE TYPE & QUALITY EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE SHEET GASKET MATERIALS RESTRICTIONS GASKET INSTALLATION GASKET STRESS FLANGE BOLT TORQUING TENSIONING AT ASSEMBLY POST-ASSMEBLY/OPERATION FLANGE JOINT TORQUING REPAIRS GASKET RECOMMENDED PRACTICE FOR: Sulfur for Non-metallic gasket material. Determination of Water Soluble Chlorides/Fluorides Performance requirements of gaskets in high pressure saturated steam lines in SAGD oil production line/s. Gasket installation procedures/bolt torqueing procedures. Oxidation test standard and requirements on Flexible graphite materials. 17

18 VALVES SELECTION CRITERIA Size Body style/materials Trim selection End connection requirement/s with available piping system Available space, actuation requirements Nature of service/critical area/s etc. Operation requirements ie. Manual, actuator Project deliveries expectation/s Price 18

19 VALVES SELECTION CRITERIA VALVE BODY and BONNETS FINISH TOLERANCES EFFECTS OF VARIOUS GASKET TYPES BONNET BOLT TORQUING PROCEDURES AT ASSEMBLY AND FOLLOWING START-UP VALVE STEMS and PACKING EFFECT OF FINISH TOLERANCES ON STEM SEALING VARIANCES IN PACKING TYPE AND QUALITY EFFECT OF GLAND BOLTING SELECTION OF CORRECT PACKING FOR APPLICABLE PROCESS VALVE AUTOMATION REQUIREMENTS DEPENDS ON LOCATION ACTUATOR REQUIREMENTS AVAILABLE SOURCE OF OPERATION AIR, GAS OR ELECTRIC/BATTERY OPERATED SPACE AND INSTALLATION AVAILABILITY TYPE OF PROCESS AND SELECTION CRITERIA 19

20 FAILURES OF EXPANSION JOINTS TYPICAL CAUSES OF FAILURE Shipping and Handling Damage Improper installation and insufficient protection during and after installation Improper anchoring, guiding, supporting of the piping system Anchor failure in service, Corrosion System over-pressurization (in-service or hydro-test) Bellows Vibration (mechanical or flow-induced) resulting in fatigue failure Excessive Bellows movement (axial, lateral, and angular movement greater than designed values) Bellows Erosion, Packing of Particulate matter in expansion joints convolutions which inhibits proper movement. VIMP Note: Expansion Joints will give many years of satisfactory service when they are properly design and manufactured for specified piping system conditions. Failures can occur for many reasons. 20

21 FLEXIBLE HOSES FLEXIBLE RUBBER AND METALLIC HOSES STANDARDS EJMA Book FSA Hand book User experience British Hose Manufacturers guide Best practices Guidelines for handling and selection criteria per available process conditions Regulatory requirements i.e. CSA stamp, i.e. certification and testing requirements per code in Canada 21

22 FLEXIBLE HOSES Industrial hoses types and availability depends on rubber or metallic hose as primary however there are available hoses for services such as: LPG needing low permeation resisting tube and diffusion matrix Hoses suitable for Asphalt and Bitumen service Hoses for Molten Sulfur Hoses for ship to ship lightering with or without steel helix wire Material Handling onshore hose Dredge soil offshore Technical Dockside Hoses Gas Oil Recovery Skids High pressure hose Speciality hybrid hose 22

23 MECHANICAL SEALS AND PUMP PACKINGS It is imperative for the seviour process conditions to make correct selection of seal as the cost of a seal to a user consists of: Purchasing. Transportation. Installation. Maintenance. Operations incidentals. Selection of correct material for the required process and fluid conditions. Limitations of selected material/s towards resistance on pressure and temperatures. Database of seal install base including serial numbering, tagging etc to track the failure/performance record. 23

24 MECHANICAL SEALS AND PUMP PACKINGS It is not feasible to justify key elements due to leakage or downtime the following: Shutdown/downtime-loss of production Stocking Inspection and Maintenance. Waste disposal/recycling fees/disposal of water borne slurries/environmental. Energy/Heating/ other utilities and logistics involved. The cost of mechanical seal consistent of long term seal runs/ reliability/reputability of manufacturer/r&d put into a product which comes with where the product is made and what local service and support is provided. In order to get all such requirements satisfied to user, the steps to improve on selecting the correct seal is by: Where the product is manufactured/process involved. Industry codes and best practices. Use of best and state of the art machineries to produce such products. Training and local support available. Selection of right sealing product/operation and maintenance information/s. 6/ Serializing and tagging of sealing to track the manufacturing history. Root cause failure analysis and supporting sale technically rather than selling for the purpose of growing sales $$. 24

25 MECHANICAL SEALS AND PUMP PACKINGS All above users consider that operations and maintenance plant staff training towards the maintenance of sealing is very important and key to optimum performance of seals and the training program shall not be limited to: Operator requirements/process and issues with previous/existing install Evaluating pump alignment/s or foundation levelling Installation procedures Packing and seal designs 25

26 ?? QUESTIONS?? WHAT PROBLEMS CAN FSA HELP US RESOLVE? Sharing industry experiences Consistent benchmarking amongst manufacturers Improved understanding of sealing solutions HOW ARE OUR NEEDS GOING TO EVOLVE SO THAT FSA CAN HELP US? Focus on Safety and Environmental issues related to Fugitive Emission regulations and eliminating Loss of Containment Education / Training Opportunities Advancement in Technology Consistency amongst manufacturers ANSWERS SHOULD COME FROM CURRENT SPECIFICATIONS, GUIDELINES, AND HANDBOOKS WHICH ARE ALL CONSENSUS DOCUMENTS. Standards ASME, API, ISO, NFPA, etc. COULD COOPERATE WITH OUR VALVE USER GROUP ON MAKING REGULATORS AWARE OF CURRENT FSA DOCUMENTS AND GENERALLY RAISE THE AWARENESS OF FSA User /Manufacturers participation in VMA activities VMA participation in User forums Awareness of Regulatory bodies 26

Overview of Canada s Oil Sands Industry

Overview of Canada s Oil Sands Industry CSSE Awards Banquet May 14, 2011 Calgary, Alberta Bob Dunbar Strategy West Inc. 12-1 Photo Source: Syncrude Canada Limited Presentation Outline Industry Overview