Forward Looking Statements

Transcription

1 March 2017

2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included herein, including, without limitation, statements regarding future plans and objectives of Canacol Energy Ltd. ( Canacol or the Corporation ), are forward looking statements that involve various risks, assumptions, estimates, and uncertainties. These statements reflect the current internal projections, expectations or beliefs of Canacol and are based on information currently available to the Corporation. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. All of the forward looking statements contained in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements and the risk factors described above. Furthermore, all such statements are made as of the date this presentation is given and Canacol assumes no obligation to update or revise these statements. Barrels of Oil Equivalent Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated using the conversion factor of 5.7 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of natural gas being equivalent to one barrel of oil. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 5.7 Mcf:1 bbl (barrel) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Acres Acres represents gross acres Production and Reserves Production represents net before royalty Reserves represent 2P reserves and before tax NPV 10 as of December 31, 2015 USD All dollar amounts are shown in US dollars, unless indicated otherwise 2 2

3 Canacology A history of discovery Dual listed Enterprise value TSX share price Ownership by insiders Natural Gas Year end P reserves Light Oil S. Pacific Ocean Pre tax NPV 10 Shale Oil 1P/2P reserve replacement Avg. gas F&D cost Colombia Reserve life TSX and BVC $696 MM CDN $3.84 ~21% 85 MMboe $1.3 B CDN $8.79/share 166% / 194% y/y US $2.52/boe(1) or US $0.44/mcf(1) 13 yrs. Light Oil Substantial exploration potential Ecuador Canacol Km (1)Trailing 2 yr average 21 blocks / 3 MM acres 560 3

4 Canacology A portfolio approach +52% CAGR in 2P reserves(1) 2P reserves in MMboe oil gas 13 yr. reserve life key components Dry natural gas record cash flow 13 present 6 discoveries (86% success) >315 BCF (>55 MMboe) Gas produced ~45 BCF % gas Light oil 08 present Oil produced Matchless oil field developer 10 discoveries (71% success) ~18 MMbls 58 / 60 wells (97% success) '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 (1)Measured from June 2008 to December 2016 or 2.0 MMbls of 2P reserves to 85 MMbls Shale oil option 14 discovery Partner ConocoPhillips Prospective resources 185 MMbls(2) 4

5 Strong Reserve Adds Stimulating Production Growth Canacol s gas production forecast In boepd Fixed priced gas contracts offer stable cash flows Production mix Projected +60% CAGR >40k High netback natural gas >80% 16k 23k ~90% insensitive Tariff oil Light oil Current Exit '17 Exit '18 5

6 Canacol s Competitive Advantage Oil prices at zero? Canacol generates >$100MM EBITDAX EBITDAX in US$ MM $117 $127 $138 $149 MM $60 Pursuing dry natural gas that features stable pricing Quarterly average MMbtu $16 $14 $12 $106 MM $45 $10 $30 $8 $6 CANACOL $5+/MMbtu ~80% operating margin $15 $4 EUROPE Oil at zero 1 2 WTI oil price 3 sensitivity 4 5 $2 $ Mar '14 Jun '14 Sep '14 Dec '14 Mar '15 Jun '15 Sep '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16 Sep '16 USA CANADA Dec '16 6

7 Canacol Gas Is The Leader In Cash Generation Vs. North America Gas(1) Canacol avg. well Avg. Marcellus/Montney 8 mo. payout 23 mo. Vs. Colombia Oil Consistent cash flow 13 yr. RLI is higher than Colombian benchmark (~6 yrs.) $ e operating netback(1) Pre tax $/boe $75 Historical operating netback Pre tax $/boe Canacol (Nelson gas field) $16 Kakwa (Nest 2) $14 Sunrise/Sunset $12 SW PA Super Rich Gas $10 $10 $10 $9 Septimus/ Groundbirch Top 8 most economic plays in the Marcellus and Montney (2017e pricing $3.25/MMbtu ) SW PA Rich Gas Dawson Susquehanna $8 NE PA $65 $55 $45 $35 $25 $15 Gas only corporate Netbacks beat the top 8 most economic plays in the Marcellus and Montney Source: CanaccordGenuity (1) Top 8 Marcellus and Montney plays only. Canacol data represents 2016e pre tax $/boe. $5 Mar '14 Jun '14 Sep '14 Dec '14 Mar Jun Sep Dec '15 '15 '15 '15 Competitor A B C Mar '16 Jun '16 Sep '16 Dec '16 7

8 Canacol s Sweet Spot Chuchupa Ballena Caribbean Sea Gas supply decline 20%/yr. or 100 MMcf/d from 3 mature gas fields(1) Chuchupa, Ballena and La Creciente La Creciente Gas demand +3% through 2025e(2) Thermoelectric, refining and industrial customers driving demand 7gas fields 785k acres 100% WI In 2015, the Caribbean region consumed 37% of Colombia s gas(2) Canacol gas blocks Compressor (1) Average annual decline for each of the trailing 3 years Gas pipeline New gas pipeline Gas field 10 km (2) UPME, December

9 Two New Gas Pipelines To Nearly Triple Canacol s Gas Business To 230 MMcf/d Chuchupa Ballena Caribbean Sea Caracoli 90 MMcf/d Jan Nov 17 Paiva SPV Pipeline Co. +40 MMcf/d = 130 MMcf/d Dec 17 Filadelfia Build 6 in. pipeline Jobo Sincelejo Add 2 compressor stations La Creciente Pipeline Co MMcf/d = 230 MMcf/d Dec 18 7gas fields 785k acres 100% WI Twin Jobo Sincelejo pipeline Construct new pipeline Cartagena Baranquilla Canacol gas blocks Gas pipeline New gas pipeline Compressor Gas field 10 km power at Filadelfia and Paiva compressor stations 9

10 Expansive Inventory of Exploration Prospects & Leads 3D VIM 5 100% WI 6 discoveries representing over 300 BCF in trailing 3 yrs. 2P F&D of $2.52`/boe for 2 yr. period ended Dec D Large inventory of prospects / leads Oboe Clarinete Balanced resource capture strategy Cañahuate CDO Jobo Nispero Trombon Esperanza/ VIM % WI 3 step opportunity to 2018 exit 3D Palmer 10 Nelson Porquero Nelson CDO 10 km Canacol s fields & discoveries prospects / leads Top Cienaga de Oro time structure map (5 X 3D seismic merged (615km 2 ), reprocessed and remapped in 2016) MMcf/d 10

11 Cañahuate 1 Exploration Target Up to 70 ft. of CDO gas pay in offset Coral wells 3D seismic demonstrates stacked AVO events potentially gas charged reservoir targets A CAÑAHUATE 1 CAÑAHUATE B B B 1,000 JOBO 6 CAÑAHUATE D 1,200 MID MIOCENE UNC COR 5 COR 4 CAÑAHUATE B TOP CDO 1,400 CAÑAFLECHA M HKW = Highest Known Water Spud March 24, 2017 Exploration target D&A / Depth Days to drill/test CAÑAHUATE C CDO depth structure map Cienaga de Oro reservoir sandstones $3.5 MM / ~9k ft. MD 6 weeks Short tie back to Jobo processing plant (~5km) A CAÑAHUATE M Fluid Factor (AVO) section across CAÑAHUATE 1 and CAÑAHUATE C Potential for up to 3 additional locations 11 1,600 1,800 INTRA CDO BASEMENT

12 Three Oil Levers Able to dial up / dial down with oil price environment Canacol s oil portfolio 17 of 21 total blocks targeting oil (83% of total) 2.2 MM oil focused acres 1 Oriente Basin, Ecuador + 2 Llanos Basin, Colombia + Middle Magdalena Llanos Production Matchless explorer 2P reserves Prospects and leads ~1,300 bopd(1) 10/14 or 71% success 3 MMbls(2) >20 3 Middle Magdalena Basin, Colombia S. Pacific Ocean Shallow Investigate potential in an established play Colombia Deep Blocks / net acres Key partner Ecuador Canacol Ecuador Km DeGolyer & MacNaugton prospective resource report, October 2014 In MMbls 3 blocks(3) (1) For the 3 months ended 12/31/16 (2) As of 12/31/2016 (3) Represents Canacol s gross working interest economic prospective oil resources 7 / ~750k ConocoPhillips Best, P High, P Mean

13 Conventional Fractured Shale VMM 2 Mono Capuchino 1 ( MC 1 ) oil exploration well, 67% WI Offset to MA 1, drilling MC 1 Depth structure map A MC 1 MA 1 B A MA 1 MC 1 B N 1 KM MIOCENE 1,000 LISAMA BASAL LISAMA UMIR 1,500 MC 1 well update in late March 2017 Exploration target 2,000 ft. MD prospective interval Drill cost / depth $7.1 MM (net) / ~12k ft. MD Days to drill 75 Mean unrisked EUR 9 MMbls(1) resource potential Up to 10 additional well locations 2,000 2,500 CRETACEOUS SIMITRI ROSABLANCA GIRON 500 M MA 1 MC 1 (1) Management s estimate of unrisked prospective resources 13

14 Successful Oil Exploration on Block LLA 23 With a lot more running room LLA 23 91% WI >110k acres Las Maracas ~12 MMbls Cravo S ~9 MMbls Cravo E ~8 MMbls Leono Pantro Tigro Five light oil discoveries made along Rancho Hermoso fault trend Exceptional on block track record for exploration success (83%, 5/6 wells) Macarenas ~6 MMbls 1 2 Spud Mar 31, 17: Drill Pumara 1 5 potential pay zones Three additional trends remain undrilled Maltes Labrador Multiple prospects are drill ready Labrad or Rancho Hermoso At $55 $60/Bbl WTI 3 1 Canacol s fields & discoveries Prospects Leads 3 Opportunities trends to repeat 3D seismic Competitor oil fields Leono Pointer fluids flow line Pointer CPF Target four drill ready prospects situated along flow line for short and immediate tie in e.g. Pumara prospect Significant upside in success case 14

15 LLA 23: Pumara 1 Exploration Target #1 Gacheta/Ubaque Target #2 Mirador/Barco/C7 Fault dependent anticlinal closure mapped on 3D 1,500 Pumara A appraisal 1,750 Leon NW C1 2,000 Pumara 1 SE 2,250 C7 Mirador / Barco Pumara B appraisal Gacheta / Ubaque Paleozoic 2,500 INLINE 197 over PUMARA Ubaque TVDSS map 2,750 NW 500 M SE Exploration target Drill cost / Depth Up to 5 stacked reservoirs $3.3 MM / ~11k ft. MD Days to drill 34 Potential for up to 2 additional locations Short tie in to flow line (~250M) 15

16 A Rare Dislocation in Equity Value Buy Canacol at a discount to the value of our existing gas contracts BT NPV 10, US $MM Despite superior economics, buy Canacol at a discount to North America shale gas companies Stable production under LT contracts $696 $778 $1,167 $163 $263 in MM, except /share amounts TSX share price (3/26/17) CDN $3.84 FD shares outstanding(1) 176 Market capitalization(2) US $506 Net debt(3) $190 Enterprise value US $696 Cash(3) $66 (1) Includes in the money options based on CDN $3.84/share price (2) Converted from CDN USD exchange rate (0.75) as of 3/26/17 (3) As of 12/31/16 EV 2P Gas 2p Oil Possible Gas + Oil 16

17 New US $265 Million Senior Secured Term Loan Financial house in order Canacol s corporate debt profile $250 Mar 22 maturity US $265 MM Refinanced 2 loans BNP term loan Apollo sub notes $180 MM / L+4.75% $75 MM / L+8.50% $200 $150 $100 $50 $ in MM $ Exit MMcf/d $300 MM EBITDAX '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 90 MMcf/d 130 MMcf/d Mar equal quarterly installments 230 MMcf/d 1 senior secured term loan Credit Suisse + syndicate Green Shoe funds w/in 1 yr. Cost reduction Beginning Mar 19 $265 MM / L+5.50% Up to $40 MM +110 basis points or 1.1%/yr. 13 equal quarterly installments Debt service AFTER Canacol starts generating >$300 MM EBITDAX/yr. Dedicate capital to high netback production instead of debt service 17

18 Appendix The Leader In Cash Generation Comparing payback periods by play Canacol Nelson CdO Fm 8months Canacol Canacol Clarinete / Oboe / CdOFm 10 months Woodenhouse Heavy Oil (Vt.) Kakwa (Nest 2) Montney Liquids Rich Gas SE SK Frobisher/Alida Oil SW SK Upper Shaunavon Oil Karnes Trough Eagle Ford Oil Tower Montney Oil SE SK Viewfield Bakken Oil Dawson Montney Gas Parkland/Doe Montney Gas SW SK Viking Oil (55 mboe) NE PA (Susquehanna Core) Marcellus Lean Gas Sunrise Montney Gas Gordondale Montney Oil Ferguson Bakken/Exshaw Oil Kaybob Duvernay Rich Gas/Condensate (Tier 1) Karnes Trough Eagle Ford Rich Gas/Condensate Bigstone Montney Liquids Rich Gas (ERH) Natural gas West Septimus Montney Liquids Rich Gas Oil Fort Berthold Bakken/Three Forks Oil (2 Mi Hz.) Liquids McMullen/LaSalle Eagle Ford Oil Karr Dunvegan Oil Permian (MWC) Midland/Martin/Howard Haynesville Gas (Tier 1) Bilbo/Karr Montney Liquids Rich Gas Permian (MWC) Regan/Upton Kakwa Falher/Wilrich Gas Payback East period Lloyd (in Heavy months) Oil Source: Scotiabank estimates Deep Basin Falher Gas Play mid cycle break even Septimus costs base Montney case (P50) Gas $60/Bbl WTI, $3.25/mcf Henry Hub, Colombia sales price $5/mcf 18

19 Appendix Generating Top Tier Returns Comparing IRRs by play Woodenhouse Heavy Oil (Vt.) Canacol Nelson CdO Fm 108% Kakwa (Nest 2) Montney Liquids Rich Gas Canacol Canacol Clarinete / Oboe / CdOFm 93% SE SK Frobisher/Alida Oil Dawson Montney Gas Tower Montney Oil SW SK Upper Shaunavon Oil Parkland/Doe Montney Gas SW SK Viking Oil (55 mboe) SE SK Viewfield Bakken Oil NE PA (Susquehanna Core) Marcellus Lean Gas Karnes Trough Eagle Ford Oil Sunrise Montney Gas Gordondale Montney Oil Ferguson Bakken/Exshaw Oil West Septimus Montney Liquids Rich Gas Natural gas Kaybob Duvernay Rich Gas/Condensate (Tier 1) Oil Bigstone Montney Liquids Rich Gas (ERH) Liquids Septimus Montney Gas Bilbo/Karr Montney Liquids Rich Gas Kakwa Falher/Wilrich Gas SE SK Border Midale Oil Karnes Trough Eagle Ford Rich Gas/Condensate Karr Dunvegan Oil Bantry Glauconite IRR% Oil 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Greater Scotiabank Ferrier Upper estimates Mannville Gas Play mid cycle break even costs base case (P50) $60/Bbl WTI, $3.25/mcf Henry Hub, Colombia sales price $5/mcf Inga/Fireweed Montney Rich Gas/Condensate 19 22

20 Higher Netback / Productivity = A Competitive Edge Comparing mid cycle breakeven costs by play $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 Break Even [Henry Hub US$/mcf] Natural gas Liquids $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 $1.05 $1.28 Source: Scotiabank estimates Play mid cycle break even costs base case (P50) $60/Bbl WTI, $3.25/mcf Henry Hub, Colombia sales price $5/mcf 20

21 Contact Calle 113 No Torre B Oficina 1501 Bogota, Colombia IR LA@canacolenergy.com 8th Avenue Place 4500, 525 8th Avenue South West Calgary, Alberta T2P 1G1 Canada IR@canacolenergy.com 21