Emerging Deep Basin Plays

Transcription

1 Emerging Deep Basin Plays Peter s & Co North American Oil & Gas Conference September 14, 2010 Forward--Looking Statements Forward Certain information regarding PERPETUAL ENERGY in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words like forecast, estimated, expected or similar expressions. These forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. Risks and uncertainties may include, without limitation, risks associated with gas exploration, development, exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, changes to the proposed royalty regime prior to implementation and thereafter, loss of markets, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, imprecision of reserve estimates, environmental risks, competition from other producers, inability to retain drilling rigs and other services, capital expenditure costs, including drilling, completion and facilities costs, unexpected decline rates in wells, delays in projects and/or operations resulting from surface conditions, wells not performing as expected, delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources. These forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. As a consequence, actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements as a result of changes in Perpetual s plans, changes in commodity prices, regulatory changes, general economic, market and business conditions as well as production, development and operating performance and other risks associated with oil and gas operations. Furthermore, the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as at the date of this presentation and Perpetual does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the forwardlooking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws. 1

2 Market profile September 9, 2010 Trust Units outstanding Management ownership Unit price (5 day weighted average) Current dividend (monthly) Current annualized yield Average daily trading volume million 21% $ 4.86 $ % 389,137 Market capitalization Convertible debentures Net bank debt Enterprise value $ $ $ $ 718 million 235 million 240 million 1.2 billion Corporate conversion from Paramount Energy Trust completed July 1, 2010 Dividend maintained at $0.05 per share per month Paramount Energy Trust - Historical Value Creation 200% $ % $/Trust Unit $20.00 $16.00 Spin Out NAV $5.05/Unit 120% $ % $ % $4.00 $0.00 Cumulative annual return on initial NAV (%) $28.00 Distributions to July 15, 2010 $14.11/Unit Reserve-based NAV June 2010 $6.92/Unit 0% Feb H1 Year end net asset 5% Annual distributions Cumulative distributions excluding current year Cumulative rate of return on initial NAV (%) 45% - Average annual return on PET spin-out NAV 337% - NAV growth per share since inception of PET 2

3 Perpetual Positioned for a new era BASE ASSETS GAME CHANGERS OPTION VALUE Sustainable Cash Flow Generators High Impact Resource Plays Exposure to Emerging Technologies Pembina Cardium Tight Oil Edson Liquids-rich Wilrich Gas Elmworth Montney Gas Viking and Colorado Shale Tight Shallow Gas Eastern Alberta Heavy Oil Legacy Conventional Shallow Gas in Northeast & East Central Alberta Deep Basin Liquids-rich Tight Gas West Central Alberta GOB Technical Solutions NE Alberta Bitumen Tight Oil & Gas Exploration CO2 Seq n & Storage Mannville CBM Warwick Gas Storage TriOil Resources (6%) = Shareholder VALUE Cash Flow Management Strategy Focused on Maximizing Value Reinvestment in Shallow Gas & Deep Basin Base Assets for Sustainability Investment in New Ventures for Growth Distribute Excess Cash Flow for Yield Assets and Operations Natural Gas Focused Asset Optimization: Conventional Shallow Gas Deep Basin Tight Gas Resource Plays E&P New Venture Growth Strategy: Elmworth Montney Pembina Cardium Tight Oil Viking and Colorado Shale Tight Shallow Gas Eastern Alberta Heavy Oil and Bitumen Warwick Gas Storage Current Daily Production - 96% Natural Gas 150 MMcfe/d (25,000 BOE/d) Gas over Bitumen Deemed Production(1) 26.5 MMcf/d PP Reserves(2) Reserve to Production Ratio (PP) (RLI) Bcfe 8.9 Years (1) Includes 10.5 MMcf/d interim shut-in order issued by ERCB effective October 31, 2009 (2) As evaluated by McDaniel and Associates including acquisitions and net of dispositions to June 30, 2010 Stability High Impact New Ventures 3

4 West Central Alberta Deep Basin Tight Gas Multi-Zone Area ROSEVEAR Targeting Viking, Bluesky, Wilrich, Lower Mannville, Fernie Sand & Rock Creek Liquids-Rich Gas bbls/mmcf NGL s Extensive facility network Interest in 3 facilities Excess third party capacity Tight Gas Prospect Inventory 40 Multi-zone vertical drills Average Depth = 2,450m ~ $1.6 MM D C & E Risked IP 800 Mcf/d Risked EUR 0.7 Bcfe 20 Horizontal locations (excluding Wilrich) ~$3.5 MM D C & E Risked IP 2,000 Mcf/d Risked EUR 1.6 Bcfe 30 Recompletion candidates South Rosevear Gas Plant (15% WI) 90 MMcf/d capacity Edson Gas Plant (30% WI) 30 MMcf/d Capacity CARROT CREEK EDSON Carrot Creek/Pembina Edson Total West Central Perpetual Lands Edson Acquisition Perpetual WI Facilities Pembina Oil Battery (78% WI) 1,200 BOE/d capacity Perpetual Pipelines Other Facilities Other Pipelines Rock Creek HZ loc ns Notikewin HZ loc ns Wilrich HZ loc ns 1,730 boe/d 1,690 boe/d 3,420 boe/d PEMBINA WEST PEMBINA 6 mi Edson Acquisition Closed April 1, 2010 ROSEVEAR South Rosevear Gas Plant (15% WI) 90 MMcf/d capacity Compressor Station Potential Expansion to 30 MMcf/d for $3.5 MM Net Edson Gas Plant (30% WI) 30 MMcf/d Capacity Edson Acquisition 9-14 Perpetual WI Facilities Perpetual Pipelines Other Facilities Multi-zone vert l development potential Notikewin & Wilrich HZ potential Farm-in on 31 net sections for Cardium 2 well Hz commitment with rolling option 2010 Post-Acquisition Activity: 8-36 Perpetual Lands 10.1 MMcfe/d 34.5 Bcf ; 1.4 MMbbls Oil & NGL s 13,393 net acres undeveloped land CARROT CREEK 3 gross vertical Wilrich recompletions Wilrich HZ drill results pending 2 Cardium earning wells 9-14 DC&T 8-36 spud by mid-sept 13-5 Other Pipelines Rock Creek HZ loc ns Notikewin HZ loc ns Wilrich HZ loc ns Wilrich Re-Complete A V A V Wilrich HZ Well EDSON Cardium HZ Well 4

5 Game Changers The De-Risking Phase Wilrich Value Potential Economics per Drilling Location Assumptions $4.9 MM 10 % $4.0 MM ($2.7 MM) BT ROR 56% (39%) BT F&D $10.70/ BOE (sales) Capital Efficiency <$12,000 BOE/d Edson 41 gross (33.5 net) unrisked locations Before Tax Cash Flow, ($M) Scope Pricing $5/Mcf ($4/Mcf); NGL s/condensate average price $53.2/bbl Operating Costs $6.45/BOE Post full plant expansion Well Depth 3,900 M HZ; 2,400 TVD Type Curve IP 3.5 MMcf/d, One year exit rate 1.85 MMcf/d 36 Bbls/MMcf NGL s/condensate Royalties 5% new well royalty rate for 500 MMscf; no drilling credits included Risk Un-risked 6,000 3,000 5,000 2,500 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 1, ,000-2, Years from Spud Avg Daily Production, (Mcf/d) Capital (D,C & T) Capital ($M) Cumulative Btax CF NPV10 ($M) Average Annual Rate (Mcf/d) ,000 5

6 Pembina CardiumTight Oil HZ Development Carrot Creek: 61 Gross (36 Net) Sections of Cardium Rights Edson: 37 Gross (31 Net) Sections under Farm-In Farm-In Terms: 100% to earn 50% Interest in 4 Sections 2 HZ Commitment Wells with Rolling Option to Earn Additional Lands CARROT CREEK 2010 Program: 3 Gross (1.9 Net) HZ at Carrot Creek 1 Gross (1 Net) Vertical Exploration Well 2 Gross (1.2 Net) HZ in Edson EDSON Results expected by late September PEMBINA Perpetual Cardium Lands Edson Acquisition Producing Cardium Wells Perpetual Cardium HZ 2010 Locations Perpetual Vertical Well Location Competitor Cardium HZ Locations NOTE: Only Cardium producing wells shown. 6 mi Carrot Creek/Edson Creek/Edson Cardium Value Potential Assumptions Economics per Drilling Location Capital (D,C & T) $2.9 MM (multi-well program estimate) 10 % $3.1 MM BT $2.1 MM AT ROR 74% BT 49% AT F&D $16.50/BOE Capital Efficiency $23,540 BOE/d Oil / Gas Pricing $75/bbl; $5/Mcf Operating Costs $13.00/BOE (BT) Well Depth 3,050 m HZ; 1,750 TVD Type Curve IP 150 bbls/d, 1yr Di 75%, 2yr Di 30%, 3 yr Di 25% Royalties 5% New well royalty rate for 70,000 bbls/30 months; no drilling credits included Risk Un-risked Scope Carrot Creek 94 gross (52 net) unrisked locations Edson Farm-In 44 gross (19 net) unrisked locations 150 3, , , ,000-2,000 Years from Spud -50 Avg Daily Production, (boe/d) Before Tax Cash Flow, ($M) 4,000 Capital ($M) Cumulative Btax Net CF NPV10 ($M) Average Annual Rate (boe/d)

7 Elmworth Montney Tight Gas Exploration ELMWORTH Upper Montney 14 HZ Wells Offsetting Lands Grande Prairie ELMWORTH Rights Held By Perpetual # Gross Sections Montney Doig Halfway Nikanassin Total Perpetual Activity 10 Parcels acquired 100% - $19 MM 19,904 ha Earning agreement in place for 50% Partner with Montney operating expertise Tourmaline Locations Montney Penetration Montney Producer Proposed Montney HZ Location 6 mi KARR Lower Montney Turbidite 18 HZ Wells Offsetting Lands Elmworth Montney 78 Sections of Montney Exposure Acquired 100% WI in 2008 Gross Reserve Potential: 3 5 Bcf /Well Bcf (North Block preliminary development) Potential Location Inventory North and East Block only: 120 gross wells Additional 38 gross sections of prospective acreage Competitor activity in past 18 months 4 HZ and 4 Vertical wells on production 6 addt l HZ wells rig released 4 new HZ wells licensed Viability of Play to be confirmed in well drilling commitment in 2010 by Tourmaline Oil with Montney operating expertise PEOC carried 100% on DC&E for the first 3 wells Partner to earn 50% working interest in all lands Perpetual/Tourmaline Locations Montney Penetrations Perpetual Lands HZ Locations 7

8 Elmworth Montney Value Potential 2012 Project Economics per Drilling Location Capital (D,C & T) $7.5 MM 10 % $3.0 MM ROR 49% BT, 34% AT Assumptions F&D $1.55/Mcfe ($9.3/BOE) Capital Efficiency $4,600/Mcfe ($27,000/BOE) Sales Scope North & East Block Unrisked Potential West Block Unrisked Potential 41 gross sections (3 wells/section) Gas Price $5/Mcf; Condensate $75/bbl; NGL $58.4/bbl Operating Costs $1.88/Mcf (post facility construction) Well Depth 4,500 m HZ; 2,600 m TVD Type Curve Deliverability IP 5MMcf/d to 1MMcf/d in 12 mths, 18% Di after 12 mths EUR 3.4 Bcf/well NGL s/condensate 35 bbls/mmcf NGL 30 bbl/mmcf Condensate Royalties 5% new well royalty rate for 500 MMscf; including drilling credits Risk Un-risked % WI Add tl 38 gross sections 90 50% WI Game Changers Key Events Deep Basin Tight Gas Exploration Edson Wilrich Horizontal evaluation well IP results September 2010 Pembina Cardium Tight Oil 5 well horizontal (3.0 net) Cardium evaluation wells Late September 2010 Elmworth Montney Gas 3 horizontal (1.5 net) evaluation wells - December 2010 Warwick Gas Storage First injection May 2010/First withdrawal November 2010 Reservoir performance evaluation from first commercial cycle April 2011 Heavy Oil/Bitumen Potential OV well programs at South Liege, Hoole, Panny and Marten Hills April 2011 Viking/Colorado Shallow Unconventional Gas Q Cost evaluation of vertical and horizontal development at Craigend October 2010 Coring program for pilot program development - November 2010 Technical core evaluation work for pilot project #1 planning - July 2011 Pilot program #1 - December Capture 2010 Define Resource 2011 Full Scale Project Execution 8

9 Opportunity Inventory and Value Potential Reserve Report 2009 Year End P P Reserves = Bcfe (adjusted for 2010 acquisitions and dispositions) Current Recorded Prospect Inventory Risk-Discounted Additional Reserve Potential = 600 Bcfe Unrisked Additional Reserve Potential = 2.2 Tcfe Recompletions GOB Conventional Drilling UnConventional Tight Shallow Gas Resource Plays (Viking, Colorado) Proved Probable Undeveloped UnConventional Tight Gas Resource Plays (Montney, Rock Creek Notikewin, Wilrich) Conventional Oil Gas Storage Proved Probable Developed Option Value Reserve Based NAV = $6.92/Unit NE AB Bitumen CO2 Sequestration & Storage Mannville CBM Tight Oil and Gas Exploration Oil/Oil Sands Projects Unconventional Tight Oil (Cardium) Reserve Based NAV and Prospect Inventory = $13.85/Unit (Risked) $33.52/Unit (Unrisked) Reserves represent <50% of the risk-discounted reserve and value potential of Perpetual Perpetual Energy Inc. (TSX: PMT PMT)) Low cost base assets well suited to sustainable partial cash flow distribution model Dividend at $0.05 per share per month Premium yield at low payout ratio Extensive inventory of base opportunities to fuel production and reserves replacement and generate future cash flow Cash flow generators to fund dividends and capitalize growth Exposure to multiple, exciting Game Changers to drive future growth Option Value intrinsic to asset base Extensive NE Alberta in-situ bitumen potential Emerging exploration in core areas and new ventures Improving balance sheet to take advantage of opportunities Track record of success making strategic value-driven acquisitions Hedge book to weather bottom of gas price cycle Accountable and entrepreneurial team, motivated by excellence Focused on Maximizing Shareholder Value 9

10 3200, Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta CANADA T2P 3H TOLL FREE PHONE FAX info@perpetualenergyinc.com WEB FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: Sue Riddell Rose President & CEO Cam Sebastian VP Finance & CFO Sue Showers Investor Relations & Communications Advisor 10