Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE: PAA)

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1 Dec 18, 2015 Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE: PAA) $20.45 USD ( As of 12/17/15 ) Zacks Rank 5-Strong Sell Style Scores: Growth: Value: Momentum: Data Overview 52 Week High-Low $ $ Day Average Volume 5,240,074 Beta 0.90 Market Cap 8.13 B Dividend / Div Yld $2.80 / 13.69% Industry OIL/GAS PROD PIPELINE MLP Industry Rank 63 / 265 (Top 24%) Growth Score Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) -0.25% Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) % Curr. Cash Flow Growth -5.78% Summary Plains All American Pipeline s third-quarter 2015 performance disappointed investors as both earnings per unit and total revenues fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The downside was due to lower sales at the partnership s Transportation, Facilities and Supply & Logistics segments. The partnership has few ongoing capital projects but the persistent weakness in commodity prices might lead producers to lower their capital investment in some regions, which might slow the demand for pipeline services. Plains All American derives substantial revenues from services provided to upstream companies. Rising competition in the pipeline industry and stringent regulations are major headwinds. Elements of the Zacks Rank Agreement Estimate Revisions ( days) Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) 16.% Current Ratio 0.85 Debt/Capital 54.82% Net Margin 3.78% Q1 (Current Qtr) Q2 (Next Qtr) F1 (Current Year) F2 (Next Year) Return on Equity 14.19% Sales/Assets 1.24 Revisions: 4 Up: 0 Down: 4 Revisions: 3 Up: 0 Down: 3 Revisions: 4 Up: 0 Down: 4 Revisions: 4 Up: 0 Down: 4 Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) % Magnitude Consensus Estimate Trend ( days) Value Score Cash/Price 0.00 EV/EBITDA 8.00 PEG Ratio 6.47 Price/Book (P/B) 1.02 Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 4.68 Q % Q % F % F % P/E (F1) Price/Sales (P/S) 0. Upside Zacks Consensus Estimate vs. Most Accurate Estimate Earnings Yield 4.80% Debt/Equity 1.21 Cash Flow ($/share) 4.49 Momentum Score Most Accurate: 0.48 Zacks Consensus: 0.48 Most Accurate: 0.31 Zacks Consensus: 0.45 Most Accurate: 1.02 Zacks Consensus: 1.02 Most Accurate: 1.26 Zacks Consensus: 1.55 Daily Price Chg 5.79% Q1 0.00% Q % F1 0.00% F % 1 Week Price Chg -0.04% 4 Week Price Chg % Surprise Reported Earnings History 12 Week Price Chg % 52 Week Price Chg % 20 Day Average Volume 5,192,943 (F1) EPS Est Wkly Chg 0.00% (F1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.00% Reported: 0.24 Estimate: 0.26 Reported: 0.24 Estimate: 0.25 Reported: 0.55 Estimate: 0.50 Reported: 0.58 Estimate: 0.59 Average 4 Qtr Surprise (F1) EPS Est Qtrly Chg % Q End 09/15 Q End 06/15 Q End 03/15 Q End 12/14 (Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.00% 2015 Zacks Investment Research, All Rights Reserved 10 S. Riverside Plaza Suite 10 Chicago, IL 6

2 The data on the front page and all the charts in the report represent market data as of 12/17/15, while the reports text is as of 12/18/2015 Overview Houston, TX-based Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., a master limited partnership (MLP), is involved in the transportation, storage, terminalling and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL) and refined products in the U.S. and Canada. The partnership has operations in the Permian Basin, South Texas/Eagle Ford area, Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast in the U.S., and Manito, South Saskatchewan, Rainbow in Canada. Plains All American Pipeline operates through three segments - Transportation, Facilities, and Supply and Logistics. Transportation: The segment deals with the transportation of crude oil and NGL through pipelines, gathering systems, trucks and barges. It generates revenues through a mix of tariffs, thirdparty pipeline capacity agreements and other transportation fees. As of Dec 31, 2014, the transportation segment had 17,800 miles of active crude oil and NGL pipelines and gathering systems and 800 trailers (primarily in Canada). Plains All American also has 149 transport and storage barges, and 72 transport tugs through its interest in Settoon Towing. Facilities: The segment provides storage, terminalling and throughput services for crude oil, refined products and LPG, as well as LPG fractionation and isomerization services. As of Dec 31, 2014, Plains All American Pipeline had storage capacity of around 73 million barrels of crude oil and refined products, and 23 million barrels of NGL. In addition, the partnership had 11 natural gas processing plants based in Canada and the U.S. This segment also has 1 condensate processing facility, 1 isomerization and fractionation facility and 24 crude oil and NGL rail terminals. Supply and Logistics: Through this segment, the partnership purchases and sells refined products and LPG from producers, refiners and other marketers. Zacks Equity Research: PAA Page 2 of 7

3 Reasons To Sell: Plains All American Pipeline s operations are subject to extensive federal, state and local regulations managing transportation and processing of materials, and protecting the environment. Government organizations have already passed several laws to protect the environment and ensure operational safety. While the execution of all of these regulations increases the partnership s operating costs, violating them would pose risks of administrative, civil and criminal penalties. Many upstream players like Occidental Petroleum Corporation, CONSOL Energy Inc. and Noble Energy Inc. are currently entering the midstream business by forming MLPs and upgrading infrastructure. If this trend persists, midstream players will be up against tough competition as they generate revenues from exploration and production companies by providing transportation services. Volatility in commodity prices, stringent government regulations, delay in completion of ongoing growth projects and increasing competition might be potential growth deterrents for the company. Plains All American Pipeline derives the major part of its revenues from low-risk, fee-based activities. However, the partnership may be exposed to commodity risks within its Supply and Logistics segment, which is involved in the purchase of crude oil that is carried on third-party tankers. Though Plains All American Pipeline re-sells oil and locks in profit margins, this act involves payment of collateral for hedges based on the market price of crude oil. Therefore, the volatility in crude oil pricing and market structures may negatively impact Plains All American's volumes and margins in its Supply and Logistics businesses. The completion of ongoing projects, within time and budget, is key to the sustainment of the partnership s performance over the long run. Uncertainties that could hinder timely completion would limit the benefits expected to be accrued from these projects. Total long-term debt of the partnership at the end of third-quarter 2015 was nearly $10 billion, flat with the 2014-end level. The partnership is exposed to market risk due to the short-term nature of its commercial paper borrowings and the floating interest rates on its credit facilities. If interest rates increase from current levels, it will have an adverse impact on its cash flows and financial positions. The pipelines are not safe from accidents, maintenance and regular check on the conditions of the pipelines could help in avoiding accidents liked the one happened in California. The partnership is involved in the process of cleaning up the damages caused by leakage of nearly 143,000 gallons of crude oil. In Aug 2015, the Jacksonville Police and Fire Pension Fund filed a class-action lawsuit, in which the plaintiff alleged that Plains All American Pipeline concealed issues with pipeline maintenance and regulatory compliance leading up to the May 19. Risks Plains All American Pipeline maintains a systematic capital investment strategy to expand its operations through organic growth initiatives. The partnership s expansion related capital expenditure in the first nine months of 2015 stood at around $1.84 billion. It plans to invest around $2.2 billion in expansion this year. Maintenance capital expenditure was $154 million during the first nine months and expected to be in the range of $200 to $220 million for Plains All American Pipeline completed several projects in 2014 and currently has a pipeline of new projects in resource-rich regions. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the investments will be directed toward completing the longer lead-time projects, such as its Cushing to Longview, Caddo and Diamond Pipeline, and its Fort Saskatchewan expansion project. All these projects are progressing as anticipated. Plains All American Pipeline pursues strategic acquisitions that are in line with its long-term growth plan. The partnership s investments in acquisitions in 2014 came in at roughly $2.03 billion. In first-quarter 2015, the partnership acquired Legion Terminals, LLC, which owns a crude oil terminal under construction in Johnson's Corner, McKenzie County, ND. The terminal is strategically positioned to serve as a crude oil logistics hub in the Williston Basin. The partnership is still exploring its options and will add assets that fit its long-term objectives. During the first half of this year, Plains All American Pipeline entered into two joint ventures to build new pipelines. The partnership entered into a venture with Magellan Midstream Partners to develop the Saddlehorn pipeline. The current equity ownership in Saddlehorn is 40% Magellan, 40% Plains and 20% Anadarko. The partnership expects the 550 mile Saddlehorn pipeline to begin operations in late 2016 with an initial capacity of about 200,000 barrels a day and a final capacity of around 400,000 barrels per day. Another project announced by Plains All American Pipeline is the formation of Caddo Pipeline LLC, a 50/50 joint venture with Delek Logistics Partners, LP to develop the Caddo Pipeline, an 80-mile, 12-inch pipeline between Longview, TX and Shreveport, LA to transport up to 80,000 barrels a day. Plains All American Pipeline continues to enjoy a favorable financial position. The partnership exited third-quarter 2015 with committed liquidity of $3.1 billion, higher than the 2014-end level of around $2.6 billion. Apart from utilizing funds in growth projects, a stable financial position allows Plains All American Pipeline to offer distributions at regular intervals. The partnership increased its quarterly cash distribution to $0.70 per limited partner unit, which represents an increase of 6.1% over the quarterly distribution of $0.66 per unit paid last year. The partnership has raised its quarterly distribution to limited partners in 44 out of the past 46 quarters and consecutively in each of the past 25 quarters. Zacks Equity Research: PAA Page 3 of 7

4 Last Earnings Report Plains All American (PAA) Lags Q3 Earnings and Revenues Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. reported third-quarter 2015 adjusted earnings of $0.24 per unit, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0,26 by 7.7%. Quarterly earnings declined 52% year over year. Total Revenue The partnership reported total revenues of $5,551 million, short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,976 million by 7.11% and year-ago revenues by nearly 50.1%. Quarter Ending 09/2015 Report Date Nov 03, 2015 Sales Surprise -7.11% EPS Surprise -7.69% Quarterly EPS 0.24 Annual EPS (TTM) 1.61 The downslide was due to lower sales at the partnership s (51.3%) segments. Transportation (down 5.0%), Facilities (6.4%) and Supply & Logistics Operational Update Plains All American s total cost and expenses went down 51.3% to $5,218 million over the prior year primarily due to lower purchases and related costs (down 53.8%), and general and administrative expenses (23.1%). The partnership s operating income plunged 17.6% to $333 million from $404 million a year ago. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $497 million in the third quarter, down 6% from $527 million a year ago. Interest expenses (net) rose 25.9% year over year to $107 million from $85 million a year ago. Financial Condition As of Sep, 2015, Plains All American s current assets were $2,958 million compared with $4,179 million as of Dec 31, As of Sep, 2015, long-term debt was $9,970 million compared with $8,762 million as of Dec 31, The long-term debt-to-total book capitalization ratio at the end of the quarter was 55% compared with 52% at the end of Recent News Plains All American Pipeline Hikes Distribution Rate Oct 07, 2015 Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. has declared a 6.1% year-over-year and 0.7% sequential increase in its quarterly cash distribution rate. The revised cash distribution of $0.70 per unit will be paid on Nov 13, 2015 to unit holders of record as on Oct, The increased rate raises Plains All American s annual distribution to $2.80 per unit. Zacks Equity Research: PAA Page 4 of 7

5 Industry Analysis Zacks Industry Rank: 63 / 265 (Top 24%) Top Peers ARCHROCK PTNRS (APLP) BUCKEYE PARTNRS (BPL) BOARDWALK PIPLN (BWP) CRESTWOOD EQTY (CEQP) CONE MIDSTREAM (CNNX) DELEK LOGISTICS (DKL) ENBRIDGE EGY PT (EEP) ENBRIDGE ENERGY (EEQ) ENABLE MIDSTRM (ENBL) Industry Comparison Oil/gas Prod Pipeline Mlp Position in Industry: 27 of 28 Industry Peers PAA Market Cap 8.36 B # of Analysts 19 Dividend Yield 13.32% Growth Score Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) -0.25% Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) % Curr. Cash Flow Growth -5.78% Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) 16.% Current Ratio 0.85 Debt/Capital 54.82% Net Margin 3.78% Return on Equity 14.19% Sales/Assets 1.24 Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) % Value Score Cash/Price 0.00 EV/EBITDA 8.00 PEG Ratio 6.47 Price/Book (P/B) 1.02 Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 4.68 P/E (F1) Price/Sales (P/S) 0. Earnings Yield 4.80% Debt/Equity 1.21 Cash Flow ($/share) 4.49 Momentum Score Daily Price Chg 5.79% 1 Week Price Chg -0.04% 4 Week Price Chg % 12 Week Price Chg % 52 Week Price Chg % 20 Day Average Volume 5,192,943 (F1) EPS Est Wkly Chg 0.00% (F1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.00% (F1) EPS Est Qtrly Chg % (Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.00% X Industry S&P B B % 2.01% % 8.46% % 5.81% 22.83% 7.04% 16.48% 10.35% % 40.21% 8.04% 9.41% 10.08% 17.65% % 0.71% % 5.48% % 1.53% -0.05% -0.04% % -0.63% % 5.37% % 0.84% 632,356 2,506, % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -2.06% -0.11% 0.00% 0.00% APLP BPL BWP M 7.29 B 2.76 B % 8.% 3.63% % 3.06% % % 9.69% % 19.17% 13.21% -10.% 32.74% 14.65% 7.07% % 47.77% 44.61% 11.09% 10.25% 15.75% 12.85% 10.59% 4.56% % % 0.75% % 6.02% 7.45% % 2.98% 0.09% -0.13% -0.10% 0.01% % % % % -7.37% % % % % 4,993 1,069,221 1,099, % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.33% 1.58% % -4.39% 7.45% 0.00% 0.13% 0.47% Zacks Equity Research: PAA Page 5 of 7

6 Zacks Rank Education The Zacks Rank is calculated from four primary inputs: Agreement, Magnitude, Upside and Surprise. Agreement This is the extent which brokerage analysts are revising their earnings estimates in the same direction. The greater the percentage of estimates being revised higher, the better the score for this component. For example, if there were 10 estimate revisions over the last days, with 8 of those revisions up, and the other 2 down, then the agreement factor would be 80% positive. If, however, 8 were to the downside with only 2 of them up, then the agreement factor would be 80% negative. The higher the percentage of agreement the better. Magnitude This is a measure based on the size of the recent change in the current consensus estimates. The Zacks Rank looks at the magnitude of these changes over the last days. In the chart to the right, the display shows the consensus estimate from -days ago, -days ago, 7-days ago, and the most current estimate The difference between the current estimate and the estimate from -days ago is displayed as a percentage. A larger positive percentage increase will score better on this component. Upside This is the difference between the most accurate estimate, as calculated by Zacks, and the consensus estimate. For example, a stock with a consensus estimate of $1.00, and a most accurate estimate of $1.05 will have an upside factor of 5%. This is not an indication of how much a stock will go up or down. Instead, it's a measure of the difference between these two estimates. This is particularly useful near earnings season as a positive upside percentage can be used to help predict a future surprise. Surprise The Zacks Rank also factors in the last few quarters of earnings surprises. Companies that have positively surprised in the recent past have a tendency of positively surprising again in the future (or missing if they recently missed). A stock with a recent track record of positive surprises will score better on this factor than a stock with a history of negative surprises. These stocks will have a greater likelihood of positively surprising again. Zacks Style Score Education The Zacks Style Score is as a complementary indicator to the Zacks Rank, giving investors a way to focus on the best Zacks Rank stocks that best fit their own stock picking preferences. Academic research has proven that stocks with the best Growth, Value, and Momentum characteristics outperform the market. The Zacks Style Scores rate stocks on each of these individual styles and assigns a rating of A, B, C, D and F. An A, is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on. Growth Score Value Score Momentum Score As an investor, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. That means buying stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2, Strong Buy or Buy, which also has a Style Score of an A or a B. Zacks Equity Research: PAA Page 6 of 7

7 Disclosures The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of this stock. The EPS and revenue forecasts are the Zacks Consensus estimates. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts' personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the securities it covers which results from a proprietary quantitative model using trends in earnings estimate revisions. This model is proven most effective for judging the timeliness of a stock over the next 1 to 3 months. The model assigns each stock a rank from 1 through 5. Zacks Rank 1 = Strong Buy. Zacks Rank 2 = Buy. Zacks Rank 3 = Hold. Zacks Rank 4 = Sell. Zacks Rank 5 = Strong Sell. We also provide a Zacks Industry Rank for each company which provides an idea of the near-term attractiveness of a company s industry group. We have 264 industry groups in total. Thus, the Zacks Industry Rank is a number between 1 and 264. In terms of investment attractiveness, the higher the rank the better. Historically, the top half of the industries has outperformed the general market. Zacks Equity Research: PAA Page 7 of 7

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