TEXT FOR HEADER FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES TEXT FOR SUBHEADER EQUITY MARKET - QUARTER-END ANALYSIS
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1 FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT TEXT FOR HEADER LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES TEXT FOR SUBHEADER EQUITY MARKET - QUARTER-END ANALYSIS For Q Equity Funds Post Strongest Return in Three Quarters SEPTEMBER 30, DATE 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY U.S. investors embraced domestic issues on strong corporate profits and economic data pushing equity funds to their second consecutive quarterly gain and generally ignored trade-war concerns during the quarter. For Q the average equity fund posted a return of 3.10%, with Lipper s U.S. Diversified Equity Funds macro-classification (+5.17%) posting the strongest quarterly return of the four major equity groups for the first quarter in three. At the beginning of September investors continued to pressure stocks after President Donald Trump threatened to add an additional $267 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods to the $200 billion his administration had already earmarked. Trade uncertainty, accompanied by concern about a downdraft in emerging-markets issues, weighed on investor psyche. Despite reports that showed the U.S. economy had added 201,000 new jobs for August, slightly outpacing analyst expectations of 200,000, technology issues extended losses as a few mega-cap stocks suffered, with Facebook and Alphabet losing 7.2% and 4.4%, respectively, on the week. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, but wage growth showed signs of heating up. Crude oil prices got a shot in the arm as Hurricane Florence raced toward North Carolina and raised concerns of supply disruptions in the region. The following week investors shrugged off the continuing trade tensions as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) saw its largest weekly decline since April and all three major indices witnessed solid gains for the week. Investors turned their focus back to the strong earnings and economic data. Mega-cap tech issues rallied, with Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft all rising strongly during the week as trade worries decreased when officials from the U.S. and E.U. met to discuss a trade pact. While U.S. retailers had posted their weakest sales in six months (+0.1% for August), retail sales managed to inch up and the September consumer confidence index rose to 100.8, its second highest reading since On September 20 investors cheered the news that first-time jobless claims for the week prior fell 3,000 (dropping to their lowest level since November 1969) and that the September Philadelphia Federal Reserve s manufacturing index leapt to a better-than-expected reading of 22.9 from August s reading of Both the DJIA and the S&P 500 closed at record highs. While mega-cap tech- and Internet-related stocks weighed on the NASDAQ on Friday, September 21, the DJIA notched its second straight record close as IHS Markit data showed the September manufacturing sector rose to 55.6 from its August reading of However, investors became less sanguine toward month-end as the U.S./China trade war entered the next stage where tariffs on billions of dollars of goods went into effect and investors began contemplating the Fed s possible next steps at its then-upcoming policy meeting. Those sectors closely tied to trade, particularly materials and industrials, witnessed the largest declines as Chinese officials accused the U.S. of trade bullyism. Oil futures rallied to their highest levels in For Q Equity Funds Post Strongest Return in Three Quarters For Q equity funds (+3.10 on average) posted their second consecutive quarterly gain. Lipper s U.S. Diversified Equity (USDE) Funds macro-classification (+5.17%) jumped to the top of the leader board for the first quarter in three, followed by Mixed-Asset Funds (+2.32%), Sector Equity Funds (+1.30%), and World Equity Funds (+0.16%). The Sector Equity Funds macro-classification housed three of the best performing classifications in the equity universe for Q3, with Global Health/Biotechnology Funds (+10.00%) being the universe leader. The World Equity Funds macro-classification was dragged down by India Region Funds (-7.58%) and China Region Funds (-6.22%). Large-cap (+6.94%) and growth-oriented (+7.41%) domestic equity funds ruled the roost for Q3. Authored by: TOM ROSEEN HEAD OF RESEARCH SERVICES LIPPER 1
2 more than three years as major oil producers refused to increase crude oil output in the face of expected supply disruptions. As was expected, on September 26 the Fed raised its key lending rate a quarter point to a range of 2.00% to 2.25% and predicted another hike in December and three more in In addition, the committee removed the phrase that its policy remains accommodative, which according to Fed Chair Powell meant the economy was performing as expected. Despite reports that new-home sales had risen 3.5% for August, stocks gave up early gains after the Fed s announcement. At month-end the S&P 500 Index (+7.20%) posted its strongest quarterly return since Q European indices suffered their largest one-day loss in over two years on concerns of Italy s budget issue and investors learning that Facebook had found a security vulnerability that affected close to 50 million accounts. Lipper s preliminary Q fund-flows numbers showed mutual fund investors were net sellers of fund assets for the quarter, withdrawing an estimated $7.9 billion from the conventional funds business (excluding ETFs). During the quarter investors were net sellers of equity funds (-$43.8 billion), continuing to shun domestic equity funds (-$38.1 billion) and beginning to give nondomestic equity funds (-$5.7 billion) the cold shoulder as well (for the first quarter in seven). Once again, investors were net purchasers of taxable bond funds (+$13.1 billion) and municipal bond funds (+$3.5 billion). For the first quarter in three they were also net purchasers of money market funds (+$19.4 billion). ETF investors (authorized participants [APs]) were net purchasers for Q3 (+$62.2 billion), injecting $44.7 billion into equity ETFs, $17.3 billion into taxable fixed income ETFs, and $244 million into municipal debt ETFs. Except for the NYSE AMEX Composite Price Only Index (-1.03%), all the major U.S. broad-based indices posted plus-side returns for Q3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Only Index posted the strongest return of the quarter, rising 9.01%. The S&P 500 Composite Price Only Index (+7.20%) took the runner-up position of the remaining U.S. broad-based indices, followed by the NASDAQ Composite Price Only Index (+7.14%) and the Russell 2000 Price Only Index (+3.26%). Overseas, the Nikkei 225 Price Only Return Index (+5.46%) posted the only plus-side return. The Xetra Dax Total Return Index (-1.00%) mitigated losses better than the other global indices for the quarter, followed by the FTSE 100 Price Only Index (-2.87%) and the Shanghai Composite Price Only Index (-4.59%). For the quarter 75 of Lipper s 96 equity and mixed-equity fund classifications posted positive returns. For the first quarter in three the USDE Funds macro-classification (+5.17%) outpaced Lipper s other three broad equity groupings. Mixed-Asset Funds (+2.32%) took the runner-up position for the quarter, followed by Sector Equity Funds (+1.30%) and World Equity Funds (+0.16%). In total, 83% of all individual equity and mixed-asset funds posted plus-side returns for the quarter. During Q3 the dollar strengthened against the yen (+2.49%), the pound (+1.15%), and the euro (+0.56%). Commodity prices declined, with near-month crude oil prices falling 1.21% to close the quarter at $73.25/barrel and with gold prices declining 4.78% to end the quarter at $1,191.50/ounce. 2
3 U.S. DIVERSIFIED EQUITY (USDE) FUNDS SUMMARY The USDE Funds macro-classification (+5.17% [quarter] and -0.47% [September]) was the best performing of Lipper s four broad equity macro-classifications for the quarter and the third best performer for September. Once again market participants kept a keen eye on geopolitical risks (particularly the tariff threats), inflation and rising interest rates, and the Fed s September policy meeting but continued to favor growth-oriented issues for the seventh consecutive quarter. Large-cap issues (+6.94%) jumped to the top of the leader board for the first quarter in three. Despite global growth concerns resulting from the increasing tariff rhetoric, Lipper s bear-oriented Dedicated Short-Bias Funds classification (-5.11% [quarter] and -0.26% [September]) was the worst performing classification in the equity universe for the quarter, bettered by Alternative Equity Market-Neutral Funds (+0.28% [quarter] and +0.16% [September]. At the top of the macro-classification for the first quarter in five was Large-Cap Growth Funds (+7.63% [quarter] and +0.54% [September]), followed by S&P 500 Index Funds (+7.59% [quarter] and +0.53% [September]), Small-Cap Growth Funds (+7.53% [quarter] and -1.56% [September]), and Multi-Cap Growth Funds (+7.40% [quarter] and +0.17% [September]). FIGURE 1 LIPPER U.S. DIVERSIFIED EQUITY FUNDS CLASSIFICATION PERFORMANCE FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2018 US DIVERSIFIED EQUITY Large-Cap Growth Funds S&P 500 Index Funds Small-Cap Growth Funds Multi-Cap Growth Funds Large-Cap Core Funds Mid-Cap Growth Funds Alternative Active Extension Funds Large-Cap Value Funds Equity Leverage Funds Multi-Cap Core Funds Equity Income Funds Multi-Cap Value Funds Mid-Cap Core Funds Alternative Long/Short Equity Funds Small-Cap Core Funds Mid-Cap Value Funds Specialty Diversified Equity Funds Small-Cap Value Funds Alternative Equity Market Neutral Funds Dedicated Short Bias Funds -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% For the first quarter in three large-cap funds (+6.94% [quarter] and +0.44% [September]) were at the top of the leader board as investors bid up large-cap healthcare, information technology, and consumer discretionary issues. Multi-cap funds (+5.98% [quarter] and -0.05% [September]) outpaced the remaining capitalization groups for Q3, with mid-cap funds (+4.74%) and smallcap funds (+4.08%) being the relative laggards for the quarter. For the seventh quarter in a row growthoriented funds (+7.41%) outperformed their core-oriented (+4.86%) and value-oriented (+3.98%) cousins. According to Lipper s active indices, Large-Cap Growth Funds (+7.63%, the 4x3-matrix quarterly leader) was helped in Q3 by heavier weightings and stronger performance results in the software & services, retailing, and healthcare equipment & services groups, which accounted for over half of the performance of large-cap growth funds. For September for the second month in three large-cap funds (+0.44%) performed better than the other capitalization groups, while growthoriented funds (-0.29%) for the second month in a row mitigated losses better or outperformed their core- (-0.77%) and value-oriented (-0.72%) counterparts. For September Large-Cap Growth Funds (+0.54%) outpaced the other classifications in Lipper s style-based funds group, while Small-Cap Value Funds (-2.61%) was the laggard of the 4x3-matrix group. According to Lipper s active indices, the average large-cap growth fund benefitted from relatively stronger performance from healthcare equipment & services, while capital goods and the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, & life sciences groups were the next strongest contributors. FIGURE 2 LIPPER U.S. DIVERSIFIED EQUITY MATRIX, TOTAL RETURN (%) FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER Large-Cap Multi-Cap Mid-Cap Small-Cap AVERAGE FIGURE 3 LIPPER U.S. DIVERSIFIED EQUITY MATRIX, TOTAL RETURN (%) FOR THE MONTH ENDED SEPTEMBER Large-Cap Multi-Cap Mid-Cap Small-Cap AVERAGE
4 SECTOR EQUITY FUNDS SUMMARY Strength in healthcare, select commodities, and industrial issues helped keep Sector Equity Funds Q3 performance on the plus side. Of Lipper s four equity macro-classifications the Sector Equity Funds macrogroup posted the third best return for the quarter. Sector Equity Funds (+1.30%) housed three of the topperforming classifications in the equity universe for the quarter, with Global Health/Biotechnology Funds for the first quarter since Q posting the strongest return in the equity universe (+10.00%), followed by Health/Biotechnology Funds (+9.95%), Commodities Energy Funds (+7.74%), and Industrials Funds (+6.31%). At the bottom of the group for the quarter were the Precious Metals Equity Funds (-15.51%), Commodities Agriculture Funds (-7.82%), and Commodities Base Metals Funds (-7.54%) classifications. The Sector Equity Funds macro-classification (-0.59%) was the worst performing of Lipper s four equity macro-classifications for September. For the month the macro-classification was dragged down by the poor relative performance of Financial Services Funds (-2.81%), Real Estate Funds (-2.34%), and Global Real Estate Funds (-1.89%). The Commodities Energy Funds and Commodities General Funds classifications posted the strongest returns of the group, gaining 5.96% and 1.98%, respectively. WORLD EQUITY FUNDS SUMMARY Escalating trade-war concerns between the U.S. and China, a strengthening dollar, and budget issues in Italy weighed on international markets during Q3. World Equity Funds (+0.16%) posted the weakest return for the quarter of Lipper s four broad-based equity macroclassifications. India Region Funds (-7.58%), with headwinds from the China/U.S trade war, suffered the largest decline in the equity universe for the quarter, bettered by China Region Funds (-6.22%), Pacific ex- Japan Funds (-3.62%), and Emerging Markets Funds (-2.71%). At the top of the charts Global Large-Cap Growth Funds (+4.05%), Global Multi-Cap Core Funds (+3.97%), and Global Large-Cap Value Funds (+3.74%) posted the strongest returns for Q3. For September the World Equity Funds macro-classification (-0.29%) posted the second strongest return of the four Lipper equity macro-classifications. A total of 12 of the 26 classifications in the group posted a negative return for the month. At the top of the group was Japanese Funds chalking up a 2.98% return, followed by Latin American Funds posting a 2.47% gain, and International Large-Cap Value Funds gaining 1.36%. India Region Funds (-11.49%) was at the bottom of the heap for September, bettered by Pacific ex-japan Funds and International Small-/Mid-Cap Growth Funds, declining 1.49% and 1.20%, respectively. FIGURE 4 SECTOR EQUITY Global Health/Biotechnology Funds Health/Biotechnology Funds Commodities Energy Funds Industrials Funds Science & Technology Funds Telecommunication Funds Consumer Services Funds Global Science/Technology Funds Energy MLP Funds Global Financial Services Funds Utility Funds Consumer Goods Funds Financial Services Funds Alternative Managed Futures Funds Commodities Specialty Funds Real Estate Funds Natural Resources Funds Specialty/Miscellaneous Funds Global Infrastructure Funds Global Real Estate Funds Global Natural Resources Funds Commodities General Funds International Real Estate Funds Basic Materials Funds Commodities Precious Metals Funds Commodities Base Metals Funds Commodities Agriculture Funds Precious Metals Equity Funds FIGURE 5 WORLD EQUITY Global Large-Cap Growth Global Multi-Cap Core Global Large-Cap Value Global Large-Cap Core Global Multi-Cap Growth Global Equity Income Funds Japanese Funds Global Multi-Cap Value Global Small-/Mid-Cap Funds Latin American Funds International Large-Cap Value International Multi-Cap Core International Equity Income Funds International Multi-Cap Value International Large-Cap Core International Large-Cap Growth European Region Funds International Multi-Cap Growth Pacific Region Funds International Small/Mid-Cap Value International Small/Mid-Cap Growth International Small/Mid-Cap Core Emerging Markets Funds Pacific Ex Japan Funds China Region Funds India Region Funds LIPPER SECTOR EQUITY INVESTMENT CLASSIFICATION PERFORMANCE FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER -16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% LIPPER WORLD EQUITY INVESTMENT CLASSIFICATION PERFORMANCE FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4
5 International multi-cap funds and global large-cap funds outpaced or mitigated losses better than the other capitalization groups for Q3, while value-oriented funds outperformed their growth- and core-oriented brethren for the international 3x3-matrix group. However, for the global 3x3-matrix group, coreoriented funds ruled the quarter. For September the capitalization results were mixed, with large-cap funds outpacing the other cap groups in the global matrix, but multi-caps leading in the international group. Value plays edged ahead of their valuation brethren for both. For the quarter Global Multi-Cap Core Funds (+3.97%) outshone the other classifications in the global 3x3-matrix group, while International Large-Cap Value Funds (+0.82%) took the honors for the international 3x3-matrix group. For the month of September the top performers for the individual matrices were International Large-Cap Value Funds (+1.36%) and Global Large-Cap Value Funds (+0.45%). FIGURE 6 LIPPER INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY MATRIX TOTAL RETURN (%) FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER Large-Cap Multi-Cap Small-/Mid-Cap AVERAGE FIGURE 7 LIPPER INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY MATRIX TOTAL RETURN (%) FOR THE MONTH ENDED SEPTEMBER Large-Cap Multi-Cap Small-/Mid-Cap AVERAGE FIGURE 8 LIPPER GLOBAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY MATRIX TOTAL RETURN (%) FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER Large-Cap Multi-Cap Small-/Mid-Cap (No Style) AVERAGE (LARGE & MULTI) FIGURE 9 LIPPER GLOBAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY MATRIX TOTAL RETURN (%) FOR THE MONTH ENDED SEPTEMBER Large-Cap Multi-Cap Small-/Mid-Cap (No Style) AVERAGE (LARGE & MULTI)
6 MIXED-ASSET FUNDS SUMMARY For the quarter the Mixed-Asset Funds macroclassification (+2.32% [quarter] and -0.06% [September]) took the number-two spot of Lipper s four equity macro-classifications. (The Mixed-Asset Funds group comprises primarily life-cycle funds [target date and target risk funds], which generally have a mix of both stocks and bonds.) Year to date through August 31, 2018, the macro-group suffered $6.0 billion of estimated net outflows, with target date funds taking in some $44.9 billion while target risk funds handed back $50.9 billion. Quarterly returns for the Mixed-Asset Funds classifications ranged from 0.49% (Absolute Return Funds [-0.36% for September) to 3.68% (Mixed- Asset Target Funds [+0.02% for September]). FIGURE 10 MIXED-ASSET FUNDS Mixed-Asset Target Funds Convertible Securities Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2045 Funds Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Agg Gro Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2050 Funds Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Growth Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2040 Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2035 Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2030 Funds Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Moderate Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2025 Funds Flexible Portfolio Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2020 Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2015 Funds Mixed-Asset Target 2010 Funds Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Consv Funds Retirement Income Funds Mixed-Asset Target Today Funds Alternative Multi-Strategy Funds Alternative Event Driven Funds Alternative Global Macro Funds Absolute Return Funds LIPPER MIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT CLASSIFICATION PERFORMANCE FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, % 0.5 % 1.0 % 1.5 % 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 6
7 FIGURE 11 PERFORMANCE OF SECURITIES MARKET INDICES ONE QUARTER YEAR TO DATE ONE YEAR THREE YEARS FIVE YEARS TEN YEARS 6/30/ /31/2017 9/30/2017 9/30/2015 9/30/2013 9/30/2008 9/30/2018 9/30/2018 9/30/2018 9/30/2018 9/30/2018 9/30/2018 INDEX CUM. RETURN CUM. RETURN CUM. RETURN ANN. RETURN ANN. RETURN ANN. RETURN FTSE 100 P IX Xetra Dax TR IX Nikkei 225 Avg:Yen P IX DJ Ind Dly Reinv Avg IX NASDAQ Composite P IX S&P 500 Daily Reinv IX FIGURE 12 PERFORMANCE OF THE TEN LARGEST FUNDS ONE QUARTER YEAR TO DATE ONE YEAR THREE YEARS FIVE YEARS TEN YEARS 06/30/18 12/31/17 09/30/17 09/30/15 09/30/13 09/30/08 NASDAQ 09/30/18 09/30/18 09/30/18 09/30/18 09/30/18 09/30/18 FUND NAME CLASS SYMBOL CUM CUM CUM ANN ANN ANN SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPSP SPY Vanguard 500 Index;Adm SPSP VFIAX Vanguard TSM Idx;Adm MLCE VTSAX ishares:core S&P 500 SPSP IVV Vanguard TSM Idx;Inst+ MLCE VSMPX N/A N/A Vanguard TSM Idx;Inv MLCE VTSMX Vanguard Tot I Stk;Inv IMLC VGTSX Vanguard TSM Idx;Inst MLCE VITSX Vanguard Instl Indx;Inst SPSP VINIX Vanguard Instl Indx;InsP SPSP VIIIX Refinitiv All Rights Reserved. The Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters is now Refinitiv. Lipper FundMarket Insight Reports are for informational purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security of any entity in any jurisdiction. No guarantee is made that the information in this report is accurate or complete and no warranties are made with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. In addition, Lipper will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from information obtained from Lipper or any of its affiliates. For immediate assistance, feel free to contact Lipper Client Services toll-free at or via at LipperClientServices@thomsonreuters.com. For more information about Lipper, please visit our website at financial.tr.com or lipperalphainsight.com Thomson Reuters S029309/1-16
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