ETF Arbitrage and Return Predictability

Transcription

1 David C. Brown University of Arizona Shaun William Davies University of Colorado Boulder Matthew Ringgenberg University of Utah January 5, 2018 American Finance Association Annual Meeting 1 / 16

2 Motivation Demand Shocks and Absolute Price Efficiency Demand shocks hit assets and move prices Informed traders (Kyle 1985) Noise traders (Shleifer and Summers 1990) 2 / 16

3 Motivation Demand Shocks and Absolute Price Efficiency Demand shocks hit assets and move prices Informed traders (Kyle 1985) Noise traders (Shleifer and Summers 1990) Sources of demand shocks are often unknown for long periods of time, leading to predictable returns Fire sales (Coval and Stafford 2007) Mutual fund flows (Lou 2012) 2 / 16

4 Motivation Demand Shocks and Absolute Price Efficiency Demand shocks hit assets and move prices Informed traders (Kyle 1985) Noise traders (Shleifer and Summers 1990) Sources of demand shocks are often unknown for long periods of time, leading to predictable returns Fire sales (Coval and Stafford 2007) Mutual fund flows (Lou 2012) Thus, demand shocks often result in absolute price inefficiency 2 / 16

5 Motivation Relative Price Efficiency and ETFs When identical assets exist, arbitrageurs ensure the law of one price holds 3 / 16

6 Motivation Relative Price Efficiency and ETFs When identical assets exist, arbitrageurs ensure the law of one price holds For example, ETFs and their underlying securities (NAV) 3 / 16

7 Motivation Relative Price Efficiency and ETFs When identical assets exist, arbitrageurs ensure the law of one price holds For example, ETFs and their underlying securities (NAV) Authorized participants make arbitrage trades to maintain relative price efficiency (Petajisto 2017, Engle and Sarkar 2006) 3 / 16

8 Motivation Relative Price Efficiency and ETFs When identical assets exist, arbitrageurs ensure the law of one price holds For example, ETFs and their underlying securities (NAV) Authorized participants make arbitrage trades to maintain relative price efficiency (Petajisto 2017, Engle and Sarkar 2006) Relative price efficiency does not imply absolute price efficiency 3 / 16

9 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Non-Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 0 NAV 0 ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

10 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Non-Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 1 NAV 1 ETF 0 NAV 0 Relative Demand Shocks ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

11 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Non-Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 1 Arbitrage Activity ETF 2 NAV 2 NAV 1 ETF 0 NAV 0 Relative Demand Shocks ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

12 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Non-Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 1 Arbitrage Activity Return To Fundamental Value ETF 2 NAV 2 NAV 1 ETF 0 ETF 3 NAV 0 Relative Demand Shocks NAV 3 ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

13 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 0 NAV 0 ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

14 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 1 NAV 1 ETF 0 NAV 0 Relative Demand Shocks ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

15 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 1 ETF 2 NAV 2 ETF 0 NAV 1 Arbitrage Activity NAV 0 Relative Demand Shocks ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

16 Motivation ETF Arbitrage Example Fundamental Demand Shocks and Arbitrage Trades ETF Share Price and Underlying NAV ETF 1 ETF 3 NAV 3 ETF 2 NAV 2 ETF 0 NAV 0 NAV 1 Relative Demand Shocks Arbitrage Activity Return To Fundamental Value ETF Premium t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 4 / 16

17 Motivation Null Hypothesis: Weak-Form Market Efficiency Relative demand shocks lead to arbitrage activity 5 / 16

18 Motivation Null Hypothesis: Weak-Form Market Efficiency Relative demand shocks lead to arbitrage activity Following arbitrage activity, prices should return to fundamental values Non-fundamental shocks price reversions Fundamental shocks price continuation 5 / 16

19 Motivation Null Hypothesis: Weak-Form Market Efficiency Relative demand shocks lead to arbitrage activity Following arbitrage activity, prices should return to fundamental values Non-fundamental shocks price reversions Fundamental shocks price continuation Arbitrage activity is: 1 symptomatic of relative demand shocks 5 / 16

20 Motivation Null Hypothesis: Weak-Form Market Efficiency Relative demand shocks lead to arbitrage activity Following arbitrage activity, prices should return to fundamental values Non-fundamental shocks price reversions Fundamental shocks price continuation Arbitrage activity is: 1 symptomatic of relative demand shocks 2 observable 5 / 16

21 Motivation Null Hypothesis: Weak-Form Market Efficiency Relative demand shocks lead to arbitrage activity Following arbitrage activity, prices should return to fundamental values Non-fundamental shocks price reversions Fundamental shocks price continuation Arbitrage activity is: 1 symptomatic of relative demand shocks 2 observable Absolute price efficiency should be quickly restored 5 / 16

22 Motivation Null Hypothesis: Weak-Form Market Efficiency Relative demand shocks lead to arbitrage activity Following arbitrage activity, prices should return to fundamental values Non-fundamental shocks price reversions Fundamental shocks price continuation Arbitrage activity is: 1 symptomatic of relative demand shocks 2 observable Absolute price efficiency should be quickly restored Null hypothesis: Monthly arbitrage activity does not predict monthly returns 5 / 16

23 Overview Motivation What We Do Use ETF creation / redemption mechanism to test whether markets incorporate the information in arbitrage trades 6 / 16

24 Overview Motivation What We Do Use ETF creation / redemption mechanism to test whether markets incorporate the information in arbitrage trades ETFs provide a unique opportunity to identify demand shocks Authorized Participants engage in arbitrage trades to correct mispricing from relative demand shocks Daily share changes provide an observable measure of arbitrage activity 6 / 16

25 Overview Motivation What We Do Use ETF creation / redemption mechanism to test whether markets incorporate the information in arbitrage trades ETFs provide a unique opportunity to identify demand shocks Authorized Participants engage in arbitrage trades to correct mispricing from relative demand shocks Daily share changes provide an observable measure of arbitrage activity Preview of Results Arbitrage activity predicts future asset returns For both the underlying stocks and ETFs themselves 6 / 16

26 Overview Motivation What We Do Use ETF creation / redemption mechanism to test whether markets incorporate the information in arbitrage trades ETFs provide a unique opportunity to identify demand shocks Authorized Participants engage in arbitrage trades to correct mispricing from relative demand shocks Daily share changes provide an observable measure of arbitrage activity Preview of Results Arbitrage activity predicts future asset returns For both the underlying stocks and ETFs themselves Arbitrage activity is associated with return reversals 6 / 16

27 Overview Motivation What We Do Use ETF creation / redemption mechanism to test whether markets incorporate the information in arbitrage trades ETFs provide a unique opportunity to identify demand shocks Authorized Participants engage in arbitrage trades to correct mispricing from relative demand shocks Daily share changes provide an observable measure of arbitrage activity Preview of Results Arbitrage activity predicts future asset returns For both the underlying stocks and ETFs themselves Arbitrage activity is associated with return reversals ETF investors collectively mistime the market 6 / 16

28 Empirical Analysis: Data ETF Sample Monthly data for 2,196 ETFs spanning 2007 to ,000 Number of ETFs in Sample $3,000 Total ETF Sample AUM (billions) 1,500 $2,500 $2,000 1,000 $1, $1,000 $ All ETFs $ All ETFs 7 / 16

29 Empirical Analysis: Data ETF Sample Monthly data for 2,196 ETFs spanning 2007 to 2016 Number of ETFs in Sample Total ETF Sample AUM (billions) 2,000 $3,000 $2,500 1,500 $2,000 1,000 $1,500 $1, $ $ All ETFs $50M+ All ETFs $50M+ 7 / 16

30 Empirical Analysis: Data ETF Sample Monthly data for 2,196 ETFs spanning 2007 to ,000 Number of ETFs in Sample $3,000 Total ETF Sample AUM (billions) 1,500 $2,500 $2,000 1,000 $1, $1,000 $ All ETFs $50M+ Mature $ All ETFs $50M+ Mature ETFs mature once creation/redemption activity exceeds 50% of days 7 / 16

31 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Return Predictability Methodology Sort ETFs into deciles based on net creations/redemptions over past month 8 / 16

32 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Return Predictability Methodology Sort ETFs into deciles based on net creations/redemptions over past month Analyze differences in portfolio returns between high redemption (Decile 1) and high creation (Decile 10) ETFs 8 / 16

33 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Return Predictability Methodology Sort ETFs into deciles based on net creations/redemptions over past month Analyze differences in portfolio returns between high redemption (Decile 1) and high creation (Decile 10) ETFs Regress monthly ETF returns on factors (raw returns, 3-factor, 4-factor and 5-factor models) 8 / 16

34 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Return Predictability Methodology Sort ETFs into deciles based on net creations/redemptions over past month Analyze differences in portfolio returns between high redemption (Decile 1) and high creation (Decile 10) ETFs Regress monthly ETF returns on factors (raw returns, 3-factor, 4-factor and 5-factor models) Consistent results using NAV returns 8 / 16

35 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Return Predictability Methodology Sort ETFs into deciles based on net creations/redemptions over past month Analyze differences in portfolio returns between high redemption (Decile 1) and high creation (Decile 10) ETFs Regress monthly ETF returns on factors (raw returns, 3-factor, 4-factor and 5-factor models) Consistent results using NAV returns Consistent results for stock-level returns using aggregated ETF creations and redemptions 8 / 16

36 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence ETF Arbitrage Negatively Predicts Returns 2 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns Monthly Return (%) ** 0.712* *** 2 Equal Weighted (1.99%***) Value Weighted (1.20%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) 9 / 16

37 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence ETF Arbitrage Negatively Predicts Returns 2 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns Monthly Return (%) ** 0.712* *** 2 Equal Weighted (1.99%***) Value Weighted (1.20%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) Equal-weighted 26.7% annualized raw return 9 / 16

38 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence ETF Arbitrage Negatively Predicts Returns 2 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns Monthly Return (%) ** 0.712* *** 2 Equal Weighted (1.99%***) Value Weighted (1.20%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) Value-weighted 15.4% annualized raw return 9 / 16

39 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence ETF Arbitrage Negatively Predicts Returns 2 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns Monthly Return (%) ** 0.712* *** 2 Equal Weighted (1.99%***) Value Weighted (1.20%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) Return reversion suggests relative demand shocks are non-fundamental, consistent with Ben-David, Franzoni, Moussawi (Forthcoming JF) 9 / 16

40 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence ETF Arbitrage Negatively Predicts Returns 2 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns Monthly Return (%) ** 0.712* *** 2 Equal Weighted (1.99%***) Value Weighted (1.20%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) Similar results using factor-based alphas or NAVs 9 / 16

41 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Predictability Stronger in High-Activity ETFs 2.00 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns by ETF Activity Terciles Monthly Return (%) ** 1.04** Low Activity (0.10%) Medium Activity (1.50%***) High Activity (1.83%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) 10 / 16

42 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Predictability Stronger in High-Activity ETFs 2.00 High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns by ETF Activity Terciles Monthly Return (%) ** 1.04** Low Activity (0.10%) Medium Activity (1.50%***) High Activity (1.83%**) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) More arbitrage activity is associated with more return predictability 10 / 16

43 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Results Concentrated in Levered and Broad-Market ETFs Montly Return (%) ** High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns by ETF Category 1.02*** 1.53* *** 2.48*** 4.00 Overall (1.56%***) Levered (4.23%***) Broad Market (3.67%***) Sector Based (0.37%) Bond ( 0.22%) Commodity (0.93%) International (0.35%) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) 11 / 16

44 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Results Concentrated in Levered and Broad-Market ETFs Montly Return (%) ** High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns by ETF Category 1.02*** 1.53* *** 2.48*** 4.00 Overall (1.56%***) Levered (4.23%***) Broad Market (3.67%***) Sector Based (0.37%) Bond ( 0.22%) Commodity (0.93%) International (0.35%) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) Levered ETFs show the strongest predictability 11 / 16

45 Empirical Analysis: ETF-Level Evidence Results Concentrated in Levered and Broad-Market ETFs Montly Return (%) ** High Redemption vs. High Creation Raw ETF Returns by ETF Category 1.02*** 1.53* *** 2.48*** 4.00 Overall (1.56%***) Levered (4.23%***) Broad Market (3.67%***) Sector Based (0.37%) Bond ( 0.22%) Commodity (0.93%) International (0.35%) Redemptions (Decile 1) Creations (Decile 10) Broad market ETFs, not niche ETFs, drive our results 11 / 16

46 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence What Does This Cost Investors? Our results suggest ETF investors collectively mistime market ETF creations lower future ETF performance ETF redemptions higher future ETF performance 12 / 16

47 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence What Does This Cost Investors? Our results suggest ETF investors collectively mistime market ETF creations lower future ETF performance ETF redemptions higher future ETF performance Implication: investors consistently overpay to gain ETF exposure 12 / 16

48 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence What Does This Cost Investors? Our results suggest ETF investors collectively mistime market ETF creations lower future ETF performance ETF redemptions higher future ETF performance Implication: investors consistently overpay to gain ETF exposure Individual cost depends on frequency of trade 12 / 16

49 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence What Does This Cost Investors? Our results suggest ETF investors collectively mistime market ETF creations lower future ETF performance ETF redemptions higher future ETF performance Implication: investors consistently overpay to gain ETF exposure Individual cost depends on frequency of trade We consider a representative investor who re-balances according to creations/redemptions 12 / 16

50 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Time-Series Methodology Standard time-series analysis assumes fixed quantities of shares 13 / 16

51 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Time-Series Methodology Standard time-series analysis assumes fixed quantities of shares ETF time-series analysis must account for creations and redemptions 13 / 16

52 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Time-Series Methodology Standard time-series analysis assumes fixed quantities of shares ETF time-series analysis must account for creations and redemptions We generate share-growth-adjusted (i.e. asset-weighted) returns to account for total capital invested in ETFs 13 / 16

53 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Time-Series Methodology Standard time-series analysis assumes fixed quantities of shares ETF time-series analysis must account for creations and redemptions We generate share-growth-adjusted (i.e. asset-weighted) returns to account for total capital invested in ETFs Effective fees capture difference between actual and asset-weighted returns 13 / 16

54 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Time-Series Methodology Standard time-series analysis assumes fixed quantities of shares ETF time-series analysis must account for creations and redemptions We generate share-growth-adjusted (i.e. asset-weighted) returns to account for total capital invested in ETFs Effective fees capture difference between actual and asset-weighted returns We randomize ETF flows using block-bootstrap Monte Carlo methods to: Generate test statistics (p-values based on 1,000,000 simulations) Control for growth of ETF industry over time 13 / 16

55 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Effective Fees Are More Negative Than Positive 30% Distribution of Effective Fee P Values 25% Percent of Observations 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% P Values Equal Weights Value Weights Expected Distribution 14 / 16

56 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Effective Fees Are More Negative Than Positive 30% Distribution of Effective Fee P Values 25% Percent of Observations 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% P Values Equal Weights Value Weights Expected Distribution Equal-weighted 12% < 0.05 p-value threshold 14 / 16

57 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Effective Fees Are More Negative Than Positive 30% Distribution of Effective Fee P Values 25% Percent of Observations 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% P Values Equal Weights Value Weights Expected Distribution Value-weighted 26% < 0.05 p-value threshold 14 / 16

58 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% 15 / 16

59 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% 15 / 16

60 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% Realized share-growth-adjusted annual return: 5.44% 15 / 16

61 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% Realized share-growth-adjusted annual return: 5.44% Annualized Effective Fee: 1.48% 15 / 16

62 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% Realized share-growth-adjusted annual return: 5.44% Annualized Effective Fee: 1.48% Total ETF AUM (Aggregated) Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.33% 15 / 16

63 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% Realized share-growth-adjusted annual return: 5.44% Annualized Effective Fee: 1.48% Total ETF AUM (Aggregated) Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.33% Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.55% 15 / 16

64 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% Realized share-growth-adjusted annual return: 5.44% Annualized Effective Fee: 1.48% Total ETF AUM (Aggregated) Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.33% Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.55% Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.07% 15 / 16

65 Empirical Analysis: Time Series Evidence Negative Effective Fee Examples: SPY & Total ETF AUM SPY (largest ETF, replicates S&P500): Actual annual return ( ): 6.89% Average simulated share-growth-adjusted annual return: 6.92% Realized share-growth-adjusted annual return: 5.44% Annualized Effective Fee: 1.48% Total ETF AUM (Aggregated) Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.33% Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.55% Annualized effective fee ( ): 0.07% 0.07% on $2.3 trillion AUM $1.6 billion of underperformance in / 16

66 Conclusion Take Aways 1 ETF arbitrage activity negatively predicts future returns 16 / 16

67 Conclusion Take Aways 1 ETF arbitrage activity negatively predicts future returns 2 Observable, non-fundamental demand shocks are not quickly offset by market participants 16 / 16

68 Conclusion Take Aways 1 ETF arbitrage activity negatively predicts future returns 2 Observable, non-fundamental demand shocks are not quickly offset by market participants 3 Information conveyed by arbitrage trades is not fully incorporated into prices 16 / 16