LifeSpan Target 2018 Born

Transcription

1 LifeSpan Target 2018 Born Oppenheimer Dev. Mkts.4% Small Cap World 2% PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth 3% Metropolitan West Total Bond 1 Loomis Sayles Bond 7% PIMCO Real Return 7% Templeton Global Bond 8% Fidelity Small Cap Growth 2% Lincoln National Stable 23% Europacific Growth 5% New Perspective 4% AMCAP 4% Artisan Global Opportunities 4% American Mutual 7% Income Fund of America 1

2 Portfolio Analysis Prepared for Wycliffe LifeSpan 2018 Jun 1, 2018 Financial Management Network Acero Mission Viejo, CA

3 Holdings Weight (%) Stable 23 MWTRX 10 American Funds Income Fund of Amer R4 RIDEX 10 Templeton Global Bond Adv TGBAX 8 Loomis Sayles Bond Instl LSBDX 7 PIMCO Real Return Instl PRRIX 7 American Funds American Mutual R4 RMFEX 7 American Funds Europacific Growth R4 REREX 5 Artisan Global Opportunities Inv ARTRX 4 Oppenheimer Developing Markets R ODVNX 4 American Funds AMCAP R4 RAFEX 4 American Funds New Perspective R4 RNPEX 4 PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth POAGX 3 Fidelity Small Cap Growth FCPGX 2 American Funds SMALLCAP World R4 RSLEX 2 Metropolitan West Total Return Bd M Cash As of May 31, Cash comprises money market accounts and funds. Page 1

4 Allocation Weight (%) US stocks large cap 16.6 US stocks mid cap 3.6 US stocks small cap 2.1 Non US stocks 16.5 Unclassified stocks 0.3 US bonds investment grade 13.3 US bonds high yield 2.5 US bonds inflation protected 7.5 Non US bonds 6.9 Unclassified bonds 0.6 Alternative Cash & equivalents 29.2 Other Stocks 39.2 Bonds 30.8 Alternative Cash & equivalents 29.2 Other Cash & equivalents comprises money market holdings, and fixedincome securities with maturity of less than 90 days. Alternative comprises commodity, precious metals and alternative funds. Page 2

5 Stocks Analysis Sectors Weight (%) Cyclical Basic Materials 5.1 Consumer Cyclical 13.7 Financial Services 15 Real Estate 1.8 Sensitive Communication Services 2.4 Energy 6 Industrials 11.5 Technology 19.4 Defensive Consumer Defensive 8.8 Healthcare 14.4 Utilities Percentage of portfolio analyzed 39.2 Cyclical 35.6 Sensitive 39.3 Defensive Values are based on the percentage of portfolio analyzed. Page 3

6 Stocks Analysis Style Average style Percentage of portfolio analyzed 39.2 Values are based on the percentage of portfolio analyzed. Regions North America 60.4 Latin America 2.4 Europe Developed 16.5 Europe Emerging 1 Africa/Middle east 1.3 Japan 3.7 Australasia 0.6 Asia Developed 6 Asia Emerging Percentage of portfolio analyzed 39.2 Values are based on the percentage of portfolio analyzed. Page 4

7 Bonds Analysis Style Bonds allocation (%) 30.8 Average credit quality BB % of bonds rated Average effective duration % of bonds measured Page 5

8 Performance 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years (1) 7.2% 14.4% 5.4% 11% 6% 13% 6.5% 9.1% S&P 500 Index TR 3.5% 8.6% 5% 10.3% 4.9% 9.9% 7.8% 15% S&P 500 Index TR 0.9% 0.1% 1.6% S&P 500 Index TR % 10.1% 8.9% 13% 9.3% 13% 25.3% 50.8% Annualized Total Return S&P 500 Index TR Risk (standard deviation) Alpha Beta Sharpe ratio S&P 500 Index TR Maximum drawdown S&P 500 Index TR Distribution rate: : 1.51% S&P 500 Index TR: Model assumptions: (1) Assets backfilled in portfolio : ARTRX before 09/22/2008 with MSCI EAFE Index TR Dividends: : reinvested; S&P 500 Index TR: reinvested Simulation: Yearly rebalance The benchmark used to calculate alpha, beta is: S&P 500 Index TR Page 6

9 Performance Cumulative returns 10y Periodic returns 10y Page 7

10 Stress Test Past performance for historical scenarios Asian crisis (1997): Currency crisis originated in Thailand and spread to Asian countries. Global markets experienced drops on fear of worldwide contagion. Russia/LTCM (1998): After Russia defaulted on its bonds, Long Term Capital Management's collapse threatened to cause a chain reaction of losses. Tech bubble ( ): Deflating of the dotcom bubble caused a prolonged decrease in equity prices. WTC attack (2001): Terrorist attack disrupted trading in the US markets and triggered a selloff. Subprime crisis ( ): A rise in subprime mortgage delinquencies led to a financial crisis and recession. Page 8

11 Funds Expense Average net expense ratio: 0.75%; Portfolio net expense ratio: 0.58% Symbol Net expense ratio Weight in portfolio MWTRX 0.67% 1 67 American Funds Income Fund of Amer R4 RIDEX 0.64% 1 64 Oppenheimer Developing Markets R ODVNX 1.56% 4% 62 Templeton Global Bond Adv TGBAX 0.65% 8% 52 Loomis Sayles Bond Instl LSBDX 0.66% 7% 46 Artisan Global Opportunities Inv ARTRX 1.15% 4% 46 American Funds American Mutual R4 RMFEX 0.64% 7% 45 American Funds Europacific Growth R4 REREX 0.85% 5% 43 American Funds New Perspective R4 RNPEX 0.79% 4% 32 PIMCO Real Return Instl PRRIX 0.45% 7% 32 American Funds AMCAP R4 RAFEX 0.71% 4% 28 Fidelity Small Cap Growth FCPGX 1.07% 2% 21 American Funds SMALLCAP World R4 RSLEX 1.05% 2% 21 PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth POAGX 0.64% 3% 19 77% 578 Fund Metropolitan West Total Return Bd M Net annual expense (*) (*) in $, based on portfolio value of $100,000. Page 9

12 Securities Average annual return as of May 31, 2018 Total returns, assuming reinvested dividends Symbol 1 year 5 years 10 years or inception MWTRX 0.2% 1.9% 5.3% 2.32% 2.54% [a] American Funds Income Fund of Amer R4 RIDEX 5.8% 7.4% 6.6% 2.81% 2.99% [b] Templeton Global Bond Adv TGBAX 0.2% 1.6% 5.5% 3.96% 4.57% [c] Loomis Sayles Bond Instl LSBDX 2% 2.9% 5.6% 4.01% 3.51% [d] PIMCO Real Return Instl PRRIX 0.5% 0.5% 3.4% 2.72% 6.01% [e] American Funds American Mutual R4 RMFEX 10.5% 10.5% 8.2% 1.94% 2.05% [e] American Funds Europacific Growth R4 REREX 12.6% 7.8% 3.9% 0.87% 0.97% [e] Artisan Global Opportunities Inv ARTRX 15.7% 12.2% 11.9% 09/22/08 [f] Oppenheimer Developing Markets R ODVNX 16.1% 4.8% 4.1% 0.11% [g] American Funds AMCAP R4 RAFEX 20.6% 13.8% 10.4% 0.36% 0.59% [g] American Funds New Perspective R4 RNPEX 15.2% 11.3% 7.5% 0.4% 0.81% [g] PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth POAGX 32.7% 20.9% 17.4% [h] Fidelity Small Cap Growth FCPGX 32.3% 16.8% 11.7% [i] American Funds SMALLCAP World R4 RSLEX 17.5% 10.8% 7.5% 0.08% [i] CASH $CASH 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.31% Metropolitan West Total Return Bd M Yield SEC Yield 12 month 30 day Web if less than 10 years history, performance since inception and inception date are indicated. [a] [b] [c] [d] [e] [f] [g] [h] [i] ETF performance is calculated based on the last closing price for the period. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance information quoted. To obtain current monthend performance information, please consult the websites referenced above. The performance quoted, reflects the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, is net of expenses and does not reflect the maximum sales load. Such a fee, if taken into consideration, will reduce the performance quoted above. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company carefully before investing. The prospectus and, if available, the summary prospectus contain this and other important information about the investment company. You can obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus from your financial representative. Read carefully before investing. Amounts in mutual funds are subject to fluctuations in value and market risk. Shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. An investment in Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), structured as a mutual fund or unit investment trust, involves the risk of losing money and should be considered as part of an overall program, not a complete investment program. An investment in ETFs involves additional risks such as not diversified, price volatility, competitive industry pressure, international political and Page 10

13 Securities economic developments, possible trading halts, and index tracking errors. Page 11

14 Important Information This report presents past performance, which does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate thus an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be higher or lower than return data quoted herein. The model portfolio results presented in this report are based on simulated investments, assuming that the holdings are purchased on the first day of the period indicated. When applicable, portfolio rebalancing is simulated to adjust the holdings back to their initial weights, according to the frequency indicated. The measure of return used in this report include distribution income such as dividends. The simulation of model portfolios does not take into account trading costs and tax implications. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have underor overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Definitions Alpha: the excess return of the investment over the benchmark, after adjusting for risk. A positive value implies that the investment has performed better than expected, relatively to its risk. The benchmark used for alpha calculation in this report is the S&P500 Index Total Return. Backfill: for investments with an inception date that is later than the beginning of the reporting period, the returns of a similar investment are used to fill the missing data, when indicated. For example, a mutual fund class with long history can be used to backfill the history of another class that has a recent inception date. Beta: the volatility of the investment compared to the volatility of the benchmark. A value lower than 1 indicates that the investment is less volatile than the benchmark. A value greater than 1 indicates a higher volatility. The benchmark used for beta calculation in this report is the S&P500 Index Total Return. Cash and equivalents: short term, high credit quality and highly liquid investments such as money market funds. Correlation: a measure of association between two investments. A positive value indicates that the investments tend to move up and down at the same time. A negative value indicates that the investments tend to move in opposite directions. The maximum value is 1; the minimum value is 1. Expense ratio: for investment funds, the expense ratio as reported in the fund's prospectus. Information ratio: A riskadjusted measure which captures excess or active returns and relates them to excess or active risk. The higher the information ratio, the better. Maximum drawdown: the largest percent retrenchment from an investment's peak value to the investment s valley value for a given period. Risk (Standard Deviation): a measure of dispersion of returns around their historical average. The higher the standard deviation, the more widely the investment's returns vary over time. Sharpe ratio: compares the investment return against the riskfree return (US Treasury Bill), after adjusting for risk. The greater the Sharpe ratio, the better its riskadjusted performance. Sortino ratio: a modification of the Sharpe ratio, using downside deviation for the risk adjustment instead of standard deviation. The downside deviation only considers periods of negative returns. Up/Down capture ratio: shows what portion of a market performance was captured by an investment in up and down markets. Yield 12month: the sum of distributions from the asset(s) over 12 trailing months, divided by the current market price of the asset(s). Yield SEC: for fixed income investments, the annualized yield based on the 30day period ending on the last day of previous month. Asset data (c)2018 Morningstar. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Page 12