Quarterly Investment Letter fourth QUARTER 2014

Transcription

1 Quarterly Investment Letter fourth QUARTER 2014 January 2015 For calendar year 2014 the S&P 500 Index performance was 13.69%. The net-of-fees performance for the Symons Value strategy was 7.89% and for the Symons Small Cap strategy was -0.71%. Since our Chief Investment Officer, Colin Symons, was given responsibility for our flagship Value strategy on January 1, 2000, $1 invested in Value is now worth $4.28 before fees (generating performance in the top 4% of peer value managers*), while $1 invested in the benchmark Russell 3000 Value Index is now worth $2.71. Likewise, $1 invested in Small Cap at its inception on October 1, 2006 is now worth $1.75 before fees (generating performance in the top 73% of peer small cap managers*), while $1 invested in the benchmark Russell 2000 Index is now worth $1.86. Please see the enclosed Performance Statistics pages for detailed additional information. THE BIG PICTURE 2014 REVIEW In 2014 we fully put into practice the macro research and portfolio management methodologies for dealing with expensive markets that we worked on for two-plus years and have discussed in prior Letters. For the most part, the additional methodologies did well for us. We maintained our defensive concentrations in consumer staples and utilities, and kept a presence in health care. The dramatic downward shift in commodity values suggested the emergence of some deep value opportunities (similar to what previously benefitted us in energy in ), but the downward shift became more dramatic than we expected as the dollar strengthened noticeably. We believe that deep value investment opportunities will emerge in commodities, but it may take prices dropping further below the cost of production for many market participants, along with a decline in inventories that reduces the supply overhang. Deep value opportunities have served us well over full market cycles during the past 15 years, but in 2014 we proved to be early in putting our toe into the commodities sector. Another point that became more obvious in 2014 was the limited availability of our traditional deep value stocks (although the recent decline in commodity stock prices may finally be suggesting the possible reemergence of such opportunities). Particularly prior to 2007, we frequently were able to find deep value stocks that had had their prices crushed to a point where there appeared to be rather limited further downside risk. In more recent years, as deep value largely disappeared, we broadened the search for value stocks to include relative deep value, where prices were not crushed to absolute deep value but were crushed relative to the otherwise generally expensive market. Our research tools have enabled us to identify such relative risk/reward opportunity stocks in expensive markets. Bottom line, we are increasingly happy with our robust investment research process, but we are not as completely happy with the 2014 results as we would like. While we were close to the benchmark indices and so stayed in the game, we did underperform. Going forward, we expect to do better. THE ECONOMY AND INVESTMENT MARKETS Looking at economic data, in late September and early October we saw evidence of a global slowdown, and the data haven t gotten any better since then. If global growth really were expected, we would not continue to see declines in both long-term Treasury rates and energy prices. But market index trend lines generally have not been broken due to the Fed s interventions and supports, which seems to provide psychological comfort to so many investors. While headline GDP data for Q3 was strong at 5%, this is a Quarter-over-Quarter number that contains a lot of noise. The Year-over-Year number was 2.7%, lower than the 3.1% peak we saw in Q Looking forward, Q4 is likely to look bad on both a quarterly and annual basis, as comparisons are pretty tough and economic indicators are signaling they re not up to the task of improving on Q On the flip side, the Q1 numbers provide an easy GDP comparison, underpinning our view that 2015 may be a volatile one. GDP comparisons for the rest of the year are the toughest they ve been in years, though admittedly not by much. Looking at various economic indicators holistically can be puzzling. Right now, on the surface it is puzzling to see 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP growth at 5.0%, and year-over-year GDP growth at 2.7%, while at the same time we see real disposable household income steadily declining year after year. How can that be? The answer is: more unsustainable debt. Increases in consumer spending, which is the majority of GDP, can come from a household s earned income, from reducing a household s savings, and from increasing a household s debt. Since early 2009 consumer debt has increased by $750 billion, or 30%, to an all-time high of about $3.25 trillion. While more debt might temporarily improve one s standard of living, because debt has to be repaid and includes an interest cost, it necessarily reduces one s future standard of living. So, while debt increases GDP, it decreases future consumption and therefore the income that can be earned by working households. Real median household incomes peaked around 2000 and we have had a debt explosion since then to support the economic veneer of continuing GDP growth. We are unsustainably inflating GDP with a growing, and ultimately unsupportable, consumer debt burden, just as we are unsustainably inflating the federal budget with a growing, and ultimately unsupportable, federal debt burden. In our personal lives we know not to count debt as income growth, but that is precisely what the government does to calculate GDP growth. While both stock market volatility and various indications of growing risk aversion have clearly increased, the dominant narrative for the market

2 continues to be investor responsiveness to the Fed making soothing noises about low interest rates and other supports for financial asset prices. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that we have started to see indications of risk concerns. Interest rates on high yield (junk) bonds are rising steadily relative to the yield on comparable Treasury securities, and trend uniformity among stock price movements is declining, such as large cap stocks noticeably outperforming small cap stocks. Potential market weakness also is suggested by low trading volume and poor breadth (only a narrow range of stocks near their highs). EQUITY STRATEGIES AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT In the second half of the year the dollar moved up and commodities moved down. At some point we believe the energy and precious metals stocks will provide great opportunities, and an oversold bounce could occur at any time. But at this point we don t see any data that makes us strongly believe a broad, lasting rally will occur in the space any time soon. The back half of 2015 may provide some great opportunities in the space, though, as current sentiment is pretty poor and valuations are pretty good. While the stock market is up, little has changed in terms of underlying economic data. Inflation is falling, Treasury bond yields are falling, leading economic indicators are falling, real disposable household income is falling, Japan is in recession, Europe is flat at best, and emerging market economies are declining. The data suggest it makes sense to be prepared for the risk of a downturn. Looking at the market as a whole, investor sentiment is still favorable, with most investors cheering every move higher, and believing that dips can still be bought because nothing has changed, especially the Fed s support for high asset prices and low interest rates. We respectfully disagree. We were able to buy strongly into the October decline as little had changed in our macro indicators. December was a different story, though, with high yield bonds evidencing risk aversion, deflation becoming obvious, and the comparative movements of market sectors showing big dispersion. The December decline wasn t as bad as October in percentage terms, but the weight of evidence toward greater risk concerns is much more worrisome. Therefore, at least for now, we have to remain defensive. CONCLUSION In the fourth quarter, market behavior showed some indications of change. We had noticeable declines in both October and December, as well as a decline in Treasury yields, all of which suggest increased concerns about steadily weakening global growth. While worldwide central bank actions may have delayed market weakness, they have not been able to solve or avoid the debt-burdened global growth problems. Stock valuations continue to be expensive and the time will come where that fact matters more to investors than the words of central banks. We had concerns about stock valuations and market risks in both 2000 and 2007, which were dismissed by most investors, but we were ultimately proven correct. Following a value-based investment discipline paid off, and allowed us to become more aggressive when valuations improved during the subsequent downturns. In the short-run the market can be driven in either direction by investor psychology, but in the long-run market returns are driven by valuations. When psychology is positive we need to be cautious; when psychology is negative, low valuations allow us to become aggressive. This is a practical approach that requires patience and discipline, which enables us to reduce risk and preserve capital. The last three years ( ) of stock market increases do not teach that fundamental valuation research is irrelevant. What our current macro research shows is that growth, inflation and Fed policy indicators can be sufficiently reassuring that investors are willing to live with increasing valuation risks. At some point investors will become less tolerant of risk. When investor sentiment changes, valuation metrics can often suddenly matter, and cash can suddenly be viewed as a superior asset class. In other words, as we have seen over the past three years, overvalued markets can become more overvalued. And as we saw in , in , and in the summer of 2011, overvalued markets also can drop like a wounded duck. The change happens when investors shift from risk indifference to risk aversion. Because our focus is on exercising research discipline at every moment, we are not dependent on the market heading in either direction to manage portfolios effectively. We cannot predict whether the market will advance or decline over the next quarter or two. However, we can identify conditions that suggest market risk probabilities. Potential market peaks are a process, not a single clear turning point. As outlined above, we see a range of evidence of potential risks. All of the data point to an increased probability of downside risk, and so lend increased importance to protecting capital and limiting downside risk exposure. We value historically-informed investment analysis to minimize risk and preserve capital until sensible opportunities arise. We also value clearly communicating our perceptions of risk and reward in our Letters to investors. Our research perceptions tell us to be very cautious here. Our outlook will change as market conditions change. As valuations improve or risk factors abate, we again will be willing to become more aggressive in buying stocks that meet our criteria. Yours sincerely, Ed Symons Chairman & Founder Colin Symons Chief Investment Officer Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Performance includes reinvestment of all dividends. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Symons Capital Management, Inc. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. *Please see Value and Small Cap Performance Statistics pages for supporting information and disclosures.

3 1

4 Schedule of Comparative Performance Statistics ( ) * Performance represents a partial period return for this year. ** n/a Annual Dispersion and/or 3 Year Ex-Post Standard Deviation not applicable for this period. *** Zephyr creates domestic equity universes based on investment style / fund behavior using the Morningstar, Mobius, Nelson s, PSN, and evestment Alliance databases. Ratings were presented by Zephyr StyleADVISOR as the result of surveys created and conducted by Zephyr. SCM did not pay a fee to participate in these surveys. Composites consist of all portfolios that meet the adviser's criteria for inclusion. Investment results for individual accounts may vary from the composite. Composite Notes 1. The Symons Value Composite was created in October 1986 and consists of all fully discretionary portfolios that are managed in the Value style. The Symons Value investment discipline seeks to invest in securities of companies with established, sustainable businesses whose current prices provide the prospect of long-term appreciation with limited downside price risk. From October 1, 2005 to January 1, 2009, the composite was named the Symons Alpha Value Composite. Prior to October 1, 2005, the composite was named the Symons Value Composite. 2. For comparison purposes the composite is measured against the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 Value indices. Effective October 1, 2005, Symons Capital Management, Inc. substituted the Russell 3000 Value Index for the Russell 2000 Index because the Russell 3000 Value Index provides a superior representation of our portfolio management and stock selection style, being a broad-based index that includes large-, mid-, and small-capitalization stocks, in contrast to the Russell 2000 Index, which primarily encompasses only smallcapitalization stocks. Russell 3000 Value is shown for the entire history. The minimum account size for this composite is $50, Returns are presented since the beginning of Colin Symons tenure as portfolio manager on January 1, Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer managed by the firm. Composite performance is presented net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends, interest income, and capital gains. The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns include the effect of foreign currency exchange rates. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using actual management fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 4. The investment management fee is: 1.25% on the first $1 million; 1.00% on the next $4 million; 0.90% on the next $5 million; 0.80% on the next $15 million; 0.70% on the next $25 million; and 0.60% above $50 million. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary. 5. The annual composite dispersion is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Three-year annualized ex-post standard deviation of the composite and benchmark are not presented prior to 2012, because 36 monthly composite returns were not available until December 31, Securities purchased by Symons Capital Management, Inc. are listed on a major exchange with published values. Month-end valuations as shown on custodian account statements are used to calculate portfolio assets and returns. Any cash flow equal to or greater than 5% of a portfolio s market value would cause the portfolio to be revalued and accounted for properly so as not to distort performance. Additional information regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations is available upon request. 7. Symons Capital Management, Inc. is an independent investment management firm, not affiliated with any parent organization, established in 1983 and registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of Prior to October 1, 2001, the firm was known as Dollins Symons Management, Inc. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request. 8. Symons Capital Management, Inc. claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Symons Capital Management, Inc. has been independently verified for the periods January 1, 1996 through September 30, 2014 by Ashland Partners & Company, LLP. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. 9. The Symons Value composite has been examined for the periods July 1, 1998 through September 30, 2014 by Ashland Partners & Company, LLP. Firm verification and composite performance examination reports are available upon request. 2

5 1

6 Schedule of Comparative Performance Statistics ( ) * Performance represents a partial period return for this year. ** n/a Annual Dispersion and/or 3 Year Ex-Post Standard Deviation not applicable for this period. *** Zephyr creates domestic equity universes based on investment style / fund behavior using the Morningstar, Mobius, Nelson s, PSN, and evestment Alliance databases. Ratings were presented by Zephyr StyleADVISOR as the result of surveys created and conducted by Zephyr. SCM did not pay a fee to participate in these surveys. Composites consist of all portfolios that meet the adviser's criteria for inclusion. Investment results for individual accounts may vary from the composite. Composite Notes 1. The Symons Small Cap Composite was created in October 2006 and consists of all fully discretionary portfolios that are managed in the Small Cap style. The investment objective for the Symons Small Cap investment discipline is long-term capital appreciation achieved by investing in both value and growth companies with market capitalizations of two billion dollars or less, that can be purchased at attractive valuations. 2. For comparison purposes the composite is measured against the Russell 2000, and secondarily, the Russell 2000 Value indices. The Russell 2000 Index primarily encompasses small-capitalization stocks. Effective October 1, 2012, Symons Capital Management, Inc. (SCM) replaced the S&P 500 Index with the Russell 2000 Value Index as a secondary benchmark. The Russell 2000 Value Index primarily includes small-capitalization stocks that better represent our portfolio management and stock selection style than the S&P 500 Index, which primarily includes only large-capitalization stocks. Russell 2000 Value is shown for the entire history. In the original 2Q-2014 presentation for Symons Small Cap, benchmark returns for Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 Value were transposed. composite the entire year. Three-year annualized ex-post standard deviation of the composite and benchmark are not presented prior to 2012, because 36 monthly composite returns were not available until December 31, Securities purchased by SCM are listed on a major exchange with published values. Month-end valuations as shown on custodian account statements are used to calculate portfolio assets and returns. Any cash flow equal to or greater than 5% of a portfolio s market value would cause the portfolio to be revalued and accounted for properly so as not to distort performance. Additional information regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations is available upon request. 7. Symons Capital Management, Inc. is an independent investment management firm, not affiliated with any parent organization, established in 1983 and registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of Prior to October 1, 2001, the firm was known as Dollins Symons Management, Inc. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request. 3. Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer managed by the firm. Composite performance is presented net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends, interest income, and capital gains. The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns include the effect of foreign currency exchange rates. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using actual management fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 4. The investment management fee is: 1.25% on the first $1 million; 1.00% on the next $9 million; 0.90% on the next $15 million; 0.80% on the next $25 million; and 0.70% above $50 million. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary. The minimum account size for initial inclusion in this composite is $250, Symons Capital Management, Inc. claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Symons Capital Management, Inc. has been independently verified for the periods January 1, 1996 through September 30, 2014 by Ashland Partners & Company, LLP. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. 9. The Symons Small Cap composite has been examined for the periods from October 1, 2006 through September 30, 2014 by Ashland Partners & Company, LLP. The verification and performance examination reports are available upon request. 5. The annual composite dispersion is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the 2