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- Lynette Lewis
- 5 years ago
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1 !"#$%&'()!*'"+$!!,,$,!-."!/'0,) -112%&+0.&.$)!'0,! 3.&+4$0!526'"&6!.0!7.0,
2 89$!3.&+4$0!5$)2+%:$!')!'! ;$$,)&2:<!=2%!>1?%',.0?!"#$%&'()!2112%&+0.&6!%$)&)!20!&D2!?"2#'"!:241$&.&.E$! ',E'0&'?$)!" '(!%&+!$#")*! ')!-(*!9'9+)'(+!-::+22!%#! ;2'-!-(*!<#"%&!;,+"':- 60(+"1'+2!$'%&!+/'2%'(1! 9+%"#:&+,':-)!'(*=2%"0!'(! ;)>+"%- ;AAB/8-C7? B CDE!>'))'#(!>-""+)2!"+:#F+"->)+! "+2+"F+2?."#9+"%'+2!#A!%&+!8+2#=":+ B G(%+1"-%+*!9"#:+22'(1!#AA+"2! +:#(#,':!-(*!+(F'"#(,+(%-)! >+(+A'%2
3 HG(F+2%->)+I J#")*!K')! 8+2+"F+2 Other 20% 97% of total Canada oil reserves are found in Alberta Athabasca Kazakhstan 9% Canada 52% Peace River USA 6% Nigeria 11% Norway 2% Edmonton Light Oil Cold Lake Total = ~350 Billion Barrels Heavy Oil Investable represents reserves associated with political regimes open to foreign investment (excluding Iraq)
4 Factors Behind Alberta s s Value-add add Vision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
5 L&+!O-)=+";**!6%"-%+10!K99#"%=('%0!A#"!;)>+"%- Moving the oil sands up the value chain to enhance product and market m diversification! Production of the bitumen from the oil sands is expected to reach 3 million bpd by 2020! Upgrading and Refining of the bitumen produces byproducts that can be used as low-cost feedstock for further value-add operations 2008 Statistics! Alberta has the potential to become the next world-class eco-industrial integrated hydrocarbon processing hub based on the oil sands! 88 oil sands projects! 3 bitumen upgraders million bpd production thousand bpd capacity Page! 5 *Includes Bowden refinery which is not in use today.! 5 oil refineries* thousand bpd capacity!5 major petrochemical facilities - 9 billion pounds production
6 Oil Sands Value Chain
7 F96G!89$!B.%$:&!A:2024.:!3$0$=.& Petrochemicals Refined Products West Texas Intermediate H$&%2:9$4.:'")! '0,!%$=.0$,! 1%2,+:&)! 21&.4.I$!&9$! E'"+$!:9'.0 Canadian Heavy Crude Bitumen /C-!:'1&+%$)!'!"2&!2=! &9$!E'"+$!:9'.0 3.&+4$0!:'1&+%$)!)24$!2=! &9$!E'"+$!:9'.0J
8 P:#(#,':!Q+(+A'%2!B K')!6-(*2 '0,!>1?%',.0? RCST!Q'))'#(!G(F+2%,+(%!A"#,!UVCV!%#!UVEV N=,=)-%'F+!!X. 4L"'))'#(!UVVSR7 P,9)#0,+(% 4L&#=2-(*!.+"2#(27 N=,=)-%'F+!!#FM% 8+F+(=+2 4Q'))'#(!UVVSR7 ;)>+"%- 8+2%!#A! N-(-*- L#%-)!N-(-*-!"-(*!L#%-) UYZS VY[\ EYVD VYE[ EYZU TES ECD \[[ C\T C]C[C ;Q!!#FM% ^+*+"-)!!#FM% K%&+"!."#FY!!#FM% _=(':'9-)!!#FM% K=%2'*+! N-(-*- L#%-)!N-(-*- UCC C\U DE TC [ED 6#=":+W!NP8G!8+9#"%W!P:#(#,':!G,9-:%2!#A!;)>+"%-M2!K')!8+2#=":+2!B 6+9%+,>+"!UVVS!59*-%+
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
10 /&%'&$?.:!5'&.20'"$!=2%!'!M6,%2:'%#20! C"+)&$%!.0!!"#$%&'? J+-)%&!:"+-%'#(!-(*!,#"+!`#>!#99#"%=('%'+2? _#"+!*'F+"2+!2)-%+!#A!+/9#"%+*!9"#*=:%2? a+*1+!-1-'(2%!:#,,#*'%0!*#$(%="(2? 8+*=:+2!)'A+!:0:)+!:-">#(!A##%9"'(%? Q=')*2!;)>+"%-!:#,9-('+2!'(!+(1'(++"'(1]!9"#`+:%!,-(-1+,+(%]!:#(2%"=:%'#(]!,+%-)!A->"':-%'#(!-(*! )#1'2%':2? X+9)#02!)+-*'(1!+*1+!%+:&(#)#1'+2? 6=2%-'(2!;)>+"%-M2!'(*=2%"0!'(%#!%&+!A=%="+
11 J&0!X#+2!;)>+"%-!$-(%!-(!P:#" Upgrader '(*=2%"'-)!a0*"#:-">#(!N)=2%+"b Integrated Complex P:#(#,':!K99#"%=('%0 Petrochemical Refinery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
12 J&0!X#+2!;)>+"%-!$-(%!-(!P:#" Upgrader '(*=2%"'-)!a0*"#:-">#(!N)=2%+"b Integrated Complex P:#(#,':!K99#"%=('%0 Petrochemical Refinery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c!1"+-%+"!%&-(! '(%+1"-%+*!A-:')'%0? J-%+"!*+,-(*!A#"!2%-(*-)#(+!9"#`+:%2!-"+!=9!%#!TVc!1"+-%+"!%&-(!A#"! '(%+1"-%+*!A-:')'%0
14 J&0!X#+2!;)>+"%-!$-(%!-(!P:#"'(*=2%"'-)! Upgrader a0*"#:-">#(!n)=2%+"b Integrated Complex P:#(#,':!K99#"%=('%0 Petrochemical Refinery L&+!-**'%'#(!#A!'(%+1"-%+*!=91"-*'(1]!"+A'('(1!-(*!9+%"#:&+,':-) 9"#*=:%'#(!-**2!F-)=+!%#!%&+!>'%=,+(!"+2#=":+!'(!;)>+"%-!-(*!:"+-%+2! 9"#*=:%!-(*!,-"3+%!*'F+"2'A':-%'#(!A#"!)#(1"%+",!>+(+A'%2!%#!%&+!."#F'(:+Y P(F'"#(,+(%-)!8+29#(2'>')'%0 G(%+1"-%'#(!#A!'(*=2%"'-)!A-:')'%'+2!$'%&!(+$!%+:&(#)#1'+2!9"#,#%+2! '(:"+-2+*!+AA':'+(:'+2]!+(&-(:+*!20(+"1'+2!-(*!"+*=:+2!%&+!#F+"-))! +(F'"#(,+(%-)!A##%9"'(%Y 6#:'-)!Q+(+A'%2 ;**'(1!F-)=+!'(!;)>+"%-!:"+-%+2!>+(+A'%2!2=:&!-2!+,9)#0,+(%!:"+-%'#(! -(*!"+F+(=+!1+(+"-%'#(!%#!'(F+2%!'(!2#:'-)!9"#1"-,2!%&-%!9"#,#%+ '(!%&+! *+F+)#9,+(%!#A!2=2%-'(->)+]!&+-)%&0]!2-A+!-(*!F'>"-(%!:#,,=('%'+2Y
15 Upgrading in Alberta was Economic The bitumen market was once limited to a few large US refineries with significant market power Upgrading in Alberta reduced the exposure to volatile bitumen prices since SCO was priced against light oil Upgrading in Alberta resolved the problems of diluent cost, shipping and availability C[
16 Bitumen-Par Differentials July 2004 to July 2009 $140 $120 $100 Edmonton Cold Lake CAD $/Barrel $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 July-04 Oct Jan-05 Apr Jul Oct Jan-06 Apr Jul Oct Jan-07 Apr Jul Oct Jan-08 Apr Jul Oct Jan-09 Apr Jul
17 Current Upgrading Economics are Challenging More US refining and pipelines became available Bitumen netbacks improved as Mexican and Venezuelan crude are harder to acquire Capital costs in Alberta escalated Global economic uncertainty The result is that today, bitumen extraction without upgrading in Alberta is a preferred strategy for many companies CD
18 In the Near Term, Refiners are Under Pressure Lower demand led to global excess refining capacity, in the short term, U.S refiners have reduced production and delayed capital expansions Increased U.S capacity to process heavy crudes has increased demand and prices for Alberta heavy crude Supplies of crude oil from Mexico and Venezuela into the U.S. have decreased Rationalization and consolidation of refining assets in North America will occur and new large world-scale integrated facilities will pre-dominate Fuel demand in the US is expected to rebound and follow economic recovery
19 There is potential to extract ethane from oil sands upgrading plant gases (i.e. Suncor and Williams) Petrochemical Industry is Reassessing Long- Term Strategies New capacity in the Middle East and Asia must be absorbed before new plants will proceed. Some US capacity is idle. North American chemical producers can compete against global players if their feedstock costs are low Optimism is being expressed in the chemical industry for an economic rebound in 2010 Many companies are reassessing their asset base, feedstock sources and planning strategic decisions to lean their operations Alberta ethylene producers are concerned about ethane supply. New US shale gas and low gas prices could lead to declines in Alberta natural gas exports to the US Midwest. Consequently, less natural gas will flow through straddle plants and less ethane will be extracted
20 !#F+"(,+(%!6%"-%+1'+2!6+%!%&+!6%-1+!A#"!%&+!<+/%! d+f+)!#a!x+f+)#9,+(%!'(!;)>+"%- Address the Environmental Footprint Extend our Role Along the Value-Chain Develop and Deploy Technology Develop Alberta s oil sands in an environmentally responsible way Maximize long-term value for all Albertans through economic growth, stability, and resource optimization
21 !#F+"(,+(%!'2!%-3'(1!2%+92!%#$-"*2! -**!K99#"%=('%0!A#"! ;)>+"%-!."#F'(:'-)!P(+"10!6%"-%+10!-(*!K')!6-(*2!6%"-%+10!Q'%=,+(!8#0-)%0!G("e'(*!.#)':0!N-">#(!N-9%="+!-(*!6%#"-1+!^=(*!G(%+1"-%+*!G(*=2%"'-)!6'%+!.)-(('(1!L+:&(#)#10!^=(*'(1!-(*!L+:&(':-)!^+-2'>')'%0! ;(-)02'2!O-)=+"-**!.#)':0!X+F+)#9,+(%
22 Page! 22 CONFIDENTIAL 22
23 35L7!C20&%':&+'"!H'%'4$&$%).=":&-2+!-%!,-"3+%!9"':+!#"!."#:+22!N"#$(! >'%=,+( 69+:'A0!>+%$++(![V]VVV!%#!D[]VVV!>9*!#A!N"#$(! >'%=,+(!2=99)0 N-9-:'%0!B (+$!A-:')'%0!#"!+/9-(2'#(!$'%&!,'(',=,!#A!CVV]VVV!>9*!#A!>'%=,+( _-/',=,!N"#$(!F#)=,+!2&-"+!#A!%#%-)!A-:')'%0! :-9-:'%0!f!D[c _=2%!9"#:+22!%#!-%!)+-2%!)#$"2=)9&=" 60(%&+%':! N"=*+!K')!4EV!*+1"++!;.G7 L+",!#A!C[!%#!EV!0+-"2!N"#$(!>'%=,+(!2=99)0 L+",!2%-"%!>+%$++(!g-(!C]!UVCE!-(*!X+:!EC]! UVCT
24 35L7!C20&%':&+'"!H'%'4$&$%)!OC20&JP Not contingent on further volume commitments, tax or royalty treatment. Alberta location (Alberta Industrial Heartland preferred in criteria for logistics and integration opportunities) The Processing Facility must be sufficiently flexible to accommodate variations in bitumen quality. 24
25 35L7!5;H!8.4$".0$) G22=-(:+!#A!G('%'-)!8^.W g=)0!uc]!uvv\ G(A#",-%'#(!_++%'(1!B G('%'-)!8^.W ;=1=2%!T]!UVV\ ^'(-)!X-%+!A#"!N#,,+(%2!#(!G('%'-)!8^.W ;=1=2%!EC]!UVV\ G22=-(:+!#A!^'(-)!8^.W 6+9!EV]!UVV\ ^'(-)!X-%+!A#"!6=>,'22'#(!#A!."#9#2-)2W X+:!U]!UVV\ ;((#=(:+,+(%!#A!6+)+:%+*!."#9#2-)!427W _-":&!EC]!UVCV 6'1('(1!#A!."#:+22'(1!;1"++,+(%W UVCV Q8Ge!9"#1"-,!:#,+2!'(%#!+AA+:%W UVCU 6=99)0!#A!Q'%=,+(!>+1'(2!=(*+"!."#:+22'(1!;1"++,+(%W!UVCE!" UVCT
26 Implications for Alberta In the short term low light/heavy oil price differentials support bitumen extraction in Alberta, but not upgrading or refining Lower construction costs now materializing If world heavy oil production increases as expected, lightheavy price differentials may widen thus improving upgrading/refining economics Petrochemicals opportunities for expansion are limited without additional feedstock Off-gases from upgrading can become feedstock for petrochemicals Niche opportunities for diesel and polypropylene production could be accessed Longer term large world scale integrated facilities based on low cost feedstock (bitumen) can be competitive in North America
27 Commitment to Value-add add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