Low Cost 2017 Reserve Additions Replaced 433% of Production at a 2P F&D Cost of $0.84/mcfe ($5.04/boe) with a 35% Increase in Liquids Reserves

Transcription

1 Low Cost 2017 Reserve Additions Replaced 433% of Production at a 2P F&D Cost of $0.84/mcfe ($5.04/boe) with a 35% Increase in Liquids Reserves Investor Presentation TSX / NYSE: AAV February 2018

2 ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE TSX 52-week trading range $ $9.29 Shares Outstanding (basic) 186 million Market Capitalization $0.8 billion 2017 Production Estimate (16% Growth) 236 mmcfe/d (39,330 boe/d) 2018 Guidance (10% Growth) 255 to 265 mmcfe/d (42,500 to 44,170 boe/d) 2018 Total Cash Costs $1.10/mcfe ($6.60/boe) Estimated as of December 31, 2017: Bank Debt (51% drawn on $400 million Credit Facility) $202 million Total Debt (including working capital deficit) $222 million Total Debt/Trailing 12 Month Cash Flow 1.2x 2

3 B.C. Alberta MONTNEY LAND HOLDINGS PROVIDES GROWTH AND UPSIDE VALUE OPPORTUNITIES FOR DECADES Progress (30 sections) Glacier 90 net sections 100% owned Glacier Gas Plant Valhalla (36 sections) Glacier Development will continue for decades. Initial delineation drilling at Valhalla, Wembley & Progress underway. Up to 5 layers of dry and liquids rich gas with a future drilling inventory >1,200 locations Recent 4 well pad success 6,410 boe/d (32 mmcf/d gas + 1,075 bbls/d liquids) with certain yields >100 bbls/mmcf, 90% C5/oil) Wembley/ Pipestone (28 sections) Total 184 net Montney sections (117,760 acres) Total 94 net sections at Valhalla, Wembley & Progress acquired for a total of $18 million since

4 OUR STRATEGY VALUE CREATION THROUGH DISCIPLINED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Operating Flexibility World Class Montney Asset Own & Operate 100% Plant & Infrastructure VALUE CREATION Financial Flexibility - Strong Balance Sheet Industry Leading Low Cost Gas Supply Hedging & Market Diversification 4

5 SIGNIFICANT OPTIONALITY FOR 2018 AND BEYOND THROUGH FINANCIAL & OPERATIONAL FLEXIBILITY F I N A N CI A L (1) $1.10Cdn/mcfe 28% % of 2018 Revenue exposed to AECO prices 37% % of 2018 Hedges at average Cdn $3.21/mcf Total Corporate cash costs (includes transportation) $1.20Cdn/mcf AECO price to maintain production at x to 1.4x 2018 Total Debt to Trailing Cash Flow (AECO Cdn $1.50/mcf to $1.75/mcf) O PE R A TI N G (1) 8/18/50% # current completed / uncompleted wells / % liquids rich <4% Of liquids rich acreage drilled to date >1,200 Current drill inventory (Glacier & Valhalla only) 100% Ownership of Glacier gas plant & pipeline Infrastructure (significant process capacity to accommodate years of growth) <26% Decline rate/annum Gas Gathering System Connected to Valhalla, extendable to Wembley / Progress areas TCPL/Alliance Connected to both sales pipes (Q Alliance) Notes: (1) Management estimates or illustrated in following presentation pages 5

6 2018 CASH FLOW FUNDED BUDGET FOCUSES ON LIQUIDS GROWTH & RETAINS FLEXIBLITY ($ million) Glacier $30 $145 Valhalla, Wembley, Progress 2018 Highlights (1) (2) $175 to $200 Million Cash Flow & Positive Income 1.0 to 1.3x Year-end 2018 Total Debt/Cash Flow $175 Well Operations $80 Plant & Value Add Facilities $85 Other, $ Capital Estimate $175-$ Cash Flow 260 MMcfe/d (43,330 Boe/d) Average Production 255 to 265 mmcfe/d Annual Range 10% Annual Production Growth 50% Annual Liquids Production Growth to 1,900 bbls/d (73% C5 + ) $30 Million to Advance Liquids Development at Valhalla, Wembley and Progress Complete Glacier Gas Plant Expansion to 400 mmcf/d & 6,800 bbls/d of liquids extraction $1.10/mcfe Total Cash Costs Including Transportation $11,400/boe/d All-In Capital Efficiency (1) Midpoint of 2018 Guidance Range. (2) Based on an average AECO Cdn $1.75/mcf to $2.25/mcf ($1.66/GJ to $2.13/GJ) natural gas price for 2018 and Advantage s current hedge positions 6

7 2018 BUDGET AT A GLANCE 203 Annual Average Production (mmcfe/d) 16% % Liquids Production (bbls/d) 50% 1,900 32% 1,250 2,400 $128 Capital ($ million) $249-30% $ E 2018E E 2018E 2018Exit E 2018E Total Debt to Trailing Cash Flow Sensitivity % 3yr average $11,950 ALL-IN Capital Efficiency ($/boe/d) $17,000-32% $11,500 AECO $1.50/mcf AECO $2.00/mcf AECO $2.50/mcf 0.8 $7, E NOTES: 2018E E 2018E (1) Transportation costs shown includes natural gas transportation for all years. Prior to November 2016, our financial reports included gas transportation as a deduction to revenue. (2) Includes Dawn transportation costs effective November 2017 for direct sales to the Dawn, Ontario hub realizing higher revenue. (3) Capital Efficiency calculated using 28% per annum decline and includes all annual capital. (3) 7

8 STRONG NATURAL GAS FIXED PRICE HEDGES $/Mcf Cdn $4.42 $3.11 $4.42 $3.18 $3.21 % of estimated natural gas production, net of royalties $3.07 $3.08 $3.67 $2.89 $2.99 $4.01 $ Q Q Calendar 2019 Calendar AECO Fixed Dawn Fixed Advantage has exposure to commodity price risk at various market hubs and has fixed prices at multiple markets. These prices represent average Cdn prices based on fixed price hedges secured to date converted at an average Fx of $

9 MARKET & REVENUE DIVERSIFICATION - 28% REVENUE EXPOSURE TO AECO PRICES IN 2018 ADVANTAGE S 2018 TOTAL REVENUE IS 28% EXPOSED TO AECO PRICES 19% 11% 17% 28% 6% 15% 39% 8% AECO 11% 18% Henry Hub Liquids 53% 40% 19% Dawn 16% Fixed Price 2017 Q4 2018E 2019E Graph represents % of estimated revenue based on strip pricing at December 10,

10 MAINTENANCE CAPITAL AND SURPLUS CASH FLOW SENSITIVITY ILLUSTRATIVE AT 280 MMCFE/D (Q4 2018) (NO HEDGING INCLUDED) Surplus Cash Flow Above $1.20/mcf 3 Year Cumulative Surplus $300 million $215 Million Based on average well type curve (1) MAINTENANCE CAPITAL $115 million CASH FLOW $115 Million Cash Surplus $100 million per Year Based on top quartile type well (2) $95 million 280 mmcfe/d Q Notes AECO $1.20/Mcf (3) Cash Flow at AECO $2.50/Mcf (1) Assumes 7.5 mmcf/d /7.5 Bcf for Upper/Lower Montney wells and 5.0 mmcf/d /5.0 Bcf for Middle Montney wells (2) Assumes 9 mmcf/d /9 Bcf for Upper/Lower Montney wells and 6 mmcf/d /6 Bcf for Middle Montney wells (3) Assumes Dawn at $3.30/mcf and a WTI price of $55 US/bbl. 10

11 $/mcfe $/Mcfe Profit Margin [%] Profit Margin [%] ATTRACTIVE NETBACKS & RECYCLE RATIOS ARE ACHIEVABLE WITHOUT HEDGING $7.00 AAV s industry leading low costs generates a top tier profit margin amongst dry or rich gas producers 50% Glacier Netbacks NO HEDGING INCLUDED Illustrative AECO Cdn $1.75/mcf Illustrative AECO Cdn $2.25/mcf $ % Revenue (1) $2.53 $2.94 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $ % 20% 10% 0% Royalties ($0.10) ($0.13) Operating Costs ($0.27) Transportation Costs (2) ($0.55) ($0.27) ($0.55) Operating Netback $1.61 $1.99 G&A ($0.09) ($0.09) Finance & other ($0.10) ($0.10) $1.00 $0.00 AAV VII TET KEL NVA CR TOU BIR PPY PEY AAV PDP PDP FD&A FD&A 2017E 2017E Cash Cash Costs Costs (Ex. Hedging) (Ex. Hedging) 2017E Gross Revenue ($/mcfe) Estimated Profit Margin (%) -10% -20% Cash Flow Netback $/mcfe $/Boe Recycle Ratio based on 3 Year Average 2P $0.52/mcfe (3) $1.42 $8.52 $1.80 $ x 3.4x Source: TD Securities (August 23, 2017) (1) Includes Dawn revenue, Natural Gas & Liquids revenue and adjustments for heat value (realized price). (2) Includes liquids transportation costs of $0.04/mcfe, AECO gas transportation costs of $0.29/mcfe and AECO to Dawn transportation costs of $1.10/mcfe. (3) 2P F&D includes Future Development Capital and is based on Sproule s 2015, 2016 and 2017 year-end 2P reserves reports. 11

12 NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION SERVICE SECURED TCPL Transportation Service 363 mmcf/d as of April, 2020 Increasing firm service secured to 2020 Ability to reduce future total service commitments through evergreen contract renewals Sales Gas Target Firm Contracted Service IT Service Estimate Alliance Pipeline Connection Proceeding TCPL New Alliance meter station planned for 2018 Provides future access to U.S. Midwest markets Glacier gas plant Alliance Proceeding with Alliance meter station connection for 2018 TCPL Meter Station Alliance Meter Station 12

13 ONGOING VALUE CREATION FROM OUR HIGH QUALITY ASSETS THROUGH OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE 13

14 ADVANTAGE S LAND BLOCKS ARE IN A LIQUIDS RICH MONTNEY FAIRWAY Progress Glacier Valhalla Wembley Glacier Progress Upper Montney (Dry at Glacier to C3+ 40 bbls/mmcf at Valhalla) Middle Montney (C3+ 20 to >100 bbls/mmcf. 50% to 90% C5+/Oil) Valhalla Wembley Lower Montney (C3+ 0 to 10 bbls/mmcf) Source: Canadian Discovery Digest/Advantage Source: Canadian Discovery Digest/Advantage Recent Advantage Evaluation/Delineation wells Wells drilled within last 18 months 14

15 SIGNIFICANT AND GROWING LIQUIDS & DRY GAS DRILLING INVENTORY Multi-Layer Montney Development Potential across Advantage Land Blocks Proved Developed Wells by Layer (3) TOTAL P Reserves Undeveloped Locations Booked (2) Lower 51 Middle 31 Upper 115 >900 Glacier & Valhalla Undrilled Liquids Rich intervals Ranges from C3+ yields of 20 to >100 bbls/mmcf (45% to 90% C5+) *Interval 6 not assigned reserves or resource # of locations are expected to grow as delineation drilling continues at Valhalla, Wembley & Progress (1) Management Estimates (2) Based on Sproule December 31, 2017 Reserves Report (3) As of December 31, 2017, gross Hz wells (includes producing and standing developed wells) >1,200 Future Drilling Locations (1) 15

16 PROGRESS, WEMBLEY AND VALHALLA LAND BLOCKS ADVANTAGE DELINEATION DRILLING & COMPLETIONS UNDERWAY Pipestone/Wembley (waiting on well results) Progress (waiting on well results) CNQ KELT CNQ Valhalla (recent 4 well pad exceeded expectations) TOU ENCANA KELT SAN LING TAQA Pipestone Development CNQ Drill 3 wells Months (30 Net Sections) Licensed Locations Advantage Lands Drill 1 well Months (28 Net Sections) Total 94 net Montney sections Each area of sufficient size to support scalable drilling programs Multi-Layer Natural Gas and Liquids Potential Future Processing potential at Glacier Gas Plant Drill 4 Wells 2017 (36 Net Sections) 16

17 LIQUIDS RICH EXPERTISE DEVELOPED AT GLACIER WILL BENEFIT ALL ADVANTAGE LAND BLOCKS Recent Glacier Middle Montney Well Results (1) 8.4 mmcf/d 26 bbls/mmcf Increased frac stages & customized completion designs continue to improve well performance 13.7 mmcf/d 41 bbls/mmcf 9.3 mmcf/d 43 bbls/mmcf 5.7 mmcf/d 83 bbls/mmcf >20 frac stages Avg of 9 wells (post 2014) 15 mmcf/d 46 bbls/mmcf 9.8 mmcf/d 20 bbls/mmcf 5.7 mmcf/d 17 bbls/mmcf < = 20 frac stages Avg of 19 wells (pre 2014) 9.8 mmcf/d 54 bbls/mmcf 18 mmcf/d 47 bbls/mmcf Liquids comprised of approximately 45% C5+ in east Glacier Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 5.0 Bcf) IP mmcf/d & 6.0 Bcf Type Curve <=20 Fracs >20 Fracs (1) Based on gas rates and Glacier C3+ shallow cut liquid extraction process yields from well test initial flow data. Gas rate normalized to 3,000 kpa line pressure. 17

18 LIQUIDS RICH GLACIER MIDDLE MONTNEY WELL PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENTS SINCE 2011 Recent well initial production test rate Wells Gen 5: Slickwater, OH Packers, Cased hole & Stage completions Avg 27 frac stages Middle Montney wells with frac design changes including >20 frac stages & numerous mechanical systems to be evaluated 28 total Middle Montney wells on-production across Glacier land block Production restrictions wells Gen 4: Slickwater, OH Packers Avg 19 frac stages wells Gen 3: Slickwater, OH Packers Avg 15 frac stages wells Gen 2: Poly CO2, & Slickwater Plug and Perf Avg 13 frac stages wells Gen 1: Poly CO2, Sand Plugs, Avg 15 frac stages Note: Recent wells Test Rates Production plot affected by low number of producing wells >350 days and wells being choked. Middle Montney Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 5.0 Bcf) Middle Montney IP mmcf/d & 6.0 Bcf Type Curve 18

19 DRY GAS EXPERTISE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WELL ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS AT GLACIER 8 WELL PILOT PAD ON-PROD 2016 Wells producing at ~10mmcf/d after 365 days exceeding type curve 1.3 year payout at Cdn $2.00/mcf gas price Top Tier LM wells Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf) Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf) Longer Laterals, More Frac Stages 3 LM wells average 2,583 meters (longest 2,880 meters) 28 frac stages, 60 tonnes/stage Avg cost DCE&T $4.3 million/well 1 MM well 2,502 meters, 26 frac stages 11.3 mmcf/d, 30 bbls/mmcf C 3 +, $5.1 million DCE+T Upper Montney Middle Montney Lower Montney Production updated to December, Well Pad Shorter Laterals Evaluating Spacing & Recovery 3 LM wells average 1,656 meters Avg cost $3.7 million/well DCE&T 19

20 DRY GAS GLACIER UPPER AND LOWER MONTNEY WELLS - IMPROVING PERFORMANCE SINCE 2008 Production restrictions Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf) Data: updated to December,

21 LIQUIDS RICH EAST GLACIER MIDDLE MONTNEY WELL ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY (1) Middle Montney at 50 bbls/mmcf C3+ (2) Break-even below $1.50 Cdn gas price at U.S. $55/bbl WTI (3) (1) Management estimates. NPV 10% pre-tax. (2) Capital of $4.8 million per well based on management s estimate of DCE+T capital cost and includes a 4 month drill to on-production timeframe (3) Natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5%. Average C3+ Cdn NGL price of $37/bbl based on U.S.$55/bbl WTI. C3+ NGL yields of 50 bbls/mmcf raw gas 21

22 DRY GAS GLACIER UPPER & LOWER MONTNEY WELL ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY (1) Upper & Lower Montney Dry Gas (2) Break-even approximately $1.50/mcf Cdn with top tier Glacier dry gas wells (3) (1) Management estimates. NPV 10% pre-tax. (2) Capital of $4.8 million per well based on management s estimate of DCE+T capital cost and includes a 4 month drill to on-production timeframe (3) Natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5%. Average C3+ Cdn NGL price of $37/bbl based on $55 U.S./bbl WTI 22

23 GLACIER DRY GAS VS LIQUIDS RICH WELL ECONOMIC COMPARISON (1) Dry Gas vs Liquids Rich (2) At <$2.25/mcf Cdn price and $55 U.S/bbl WTI, Glacier s average liquids rich type curve (5/5) generates stronger well economics than dry gas wells <= 9 mmcfd IP30 & 9 Bcfe EUR (3) (1) Management estimates. NPV 10% pre-tax. (2) Capital of $4.8 million per well based on management s estimate of DCE+T capital cost and includes a 4 month drill to on-production timeframe (3) Natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5%. Average C3+ Cdn NGL price of $37/bbl based on $55 U.S./bbl WTI 23

24 GROWTH BEYOND 400 MMCF/D CAN BE ACCOMMODATED ON EXISTING PLANT SITE 100% Owned Glacier Gas Plant Positioned for Production Ramp-up Room for Additional Expansion Beyond 400 mmcf/d Expanding from 250 to 400 mmcf/d & 6,800 bbls/d processing capacity 400 mmcf/d take away capacity to TCPL NW main sales gas pipeline Advantage Gas Plant TCPL Sales Meter Stations Alliance Sales Gas Line New Alliance Meter Station to be Installed 2018 TCPL NW ALBERTA Main Sales Gas Line Pembina NGL Line Company Land Company Gas Plant TransCanada Pipeline Pembina Pipeline Advantage Pipeline Alliance Pipeline Glacier Gas Plant Site near Major Natural Gas & Liquids Pipelines & Rail Access Sales Pipeline Loop capacity of 400 mmcf/d (Glacier plant to NW TCPL Mainline) Total TCPL Natural Gas Firm Transportation Service of 363 mmcf/d by April 2020 Secured 24

25 ADVANTAGE - LEADING LOW COST NATURAL GAS SUPPLY Select Montney and Marcellus Natural Gas Producers Cash Costs 2018 Estimates (Cdn$/mcfe) $2.77 Cdn $/Mcfe $2.56 $1.10 (1) (2) AAV Montney Marcellus Operating costs & transportation ($/mcfe) Royalties incl. GCA adjustments ($/mcfe) G&A ($/mcfe) Interest & other ($/mcfe) (3) (1) Advantage 2018 estimates at December 15, (2) RBC Capital Markets 2018 average cost estimate including ARX, BIR, CR, KEL, NVA, PPY, POU, TOU and VII at December 12, (3) Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co average cost estimate including AR, CNX, COG, EQT, RICE and RRC at December 22, 2017 using a USD$/CAD$ foreign exchange rate of $

26 RETURN ON AVERAGE CAPITAL EMPLOD COMPARISON 5-AR AVERAGE (2013 TO 2017 ESTIMATE) Advantage Montney Development After tax 5.6% Before tax 7.9% Peers Average 1.4% Cdn Large Caps Average Cdn Small/Mid Caps Average Cdn Yields Average 0.8% 3.5% 5.2% Comparative data is shown on an after-tax basis. Advantage was not taxable in the last 5 years and is not expected to be taxable for the next 5 years or more due to its significant tax pools. US Large Caps Average 3.9% US Small/Mid Caps Average 3.9% Notes: 1. Advantage return on average capital employed (ROACE) is calculated by Management for the development of Glacier, Valhalla, Progress and Wembley since inception (legacy property disposition impacts have been excluded). 2. Comparative data is based on Macquarie Research September 11, 2017 and Peers Average includes ARX, BIR, BNP, CR, KEL, NVA, PEY, POU and VII. 3. ROACE as defined by Macquarie Research includes revenue and realized hedging gains/losses less royalty expense, operating expense, transportation expense, G&A expense, depreciation expense and income taxes (excludes unrealized hedging gains/losses and financing expense after taxes) divided by average capital employed. 26

27 Clear Vision for Growth Financial Strength Proven Expertise

28 APPENDIX

29 2018 BUDGET & GUIDANCE RANGE Average Annual Production Liquids Annual Liquids Exit 255 to 265 mmcfe/d (42,500 to 44, 170 boe/d) 1,900 bbls/d 2,400 bbls/d Royalty Rate 3% to 5% Operating Costs($/mcfe) $0.25 to $0.29 Transportation Costs ($/mcfe) $0.52 to $0.58 Total Corporate Cash Costs ($/mcfe) $1.00 to $1.20 Capital Expenditures $175 million 29

30 GLACIER LOCATED IN THE HEART OF THE MONTNEY RESOURCE PLAY Montney Siltstone Comparison: 700 times more permeability 4x more formation thickness Very low clay content Liquids & Improved well efficiencies strong economics Up to 83 bbls/mmcf 30

31 UPPER & LOWER MONTNEY WELL PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE New wells are normally restricted to ~10 mmcf/d for frac sand flowback control during initial 6 months Production Average (33 wells) Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf) IP mmcf/d & 9.0 Bcf Type Curve 33 Upper & Lower Montney Wells, average 20 frac stages, started production July Lower Montney Well results beginning to surpass Upper Montney Production updated to December,

32 GLACIER MIDDLE MONTNEY WELLS EXCEEDING AVERAGE BUDGET TYPE CURVE Wells are exceeding current type curves Ongoing delineation identifies sweet spots within different Middle Montney layers. Frac designs are tailored to further optimize results well (2013) cumulative production > 4.1 Bcfe Middle Montney Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 5.0 Bcf) Production updated to December,

33 MOST RECENT LOWER MONTNEY WELLS WITH UP TO 30 FRAC STAGES (OPEN-HOLE PACKERS AND CEMENTED PORTS) Wells restricted to ~ 10mmcf/d for frac sand flowback control during initial 6 months Additional Lower Montney wells with longer laterals, reduced frac spacing and cemented ports are continuing to be brought on production. Production Average (18 wells) Budget Type Curve (IP mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf) IP mmcf/d & 9.0 Bcf Type Curve Production updated to December,

34 CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT HAS CREATED INDUSTRY LEADING EFFICIENCIES Production restrictions 34

35 GLACIER MONTNEY ASSIGNED 2P EUR PER WELL & INTERVAL Glacier - 2P Recoveries per Interval (1) # of Gross HZ Wells 2P Recovery [bcf/well] Interval 2015 Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total UM MM MM MM LM Total Interval 2015 # of Gross HZ Wells 2P Recovery [bcf/well] Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total Valhalla - 2P Recoveries per Interval (1) UM MM MM Total (1) Based on Sproule 2017 year-end reserve reports. Indicated raw gas volumes per well. 35

36 MARKET DIVERSIFICATION IN-PLACE ADVANTAGE HAS EXPOSURE TO MULTIPLE MARKETS TO MANAGE COMMODITY PRICE RISK 32% 3% 14% 44% 7% 4% 9% 53% 9% 5% AECO Henry Hub Liquids 51% 36% 17% 16% Dawn Fixed Price 2017 Q Graph represents % of estimated annual future total production, net of royalties 36

37 ADVISORY Certain statements contained in this presentation constitute forward-looking information, which relate to future events or our future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to, but not limited to, the following: details of Advantage's 2017 to 2019 development program; expected number of wells required to be drilled to achieve certain levels of production; expected well economics associated with certain type curves; expected sensitivities in cash flow per share and debt to cash flow levels to changes in commodity prices; projections of market prices and costs; anticipated number of future drilling locations and inventory and Advantage's focus on developing such locations including the timing thereof; the proposed expansion of Advantage's Glacier gas plant processing capacity, including the amount of such expansion, the anticipated timing of completion of the proposed expansion and the expected benefits to Advantage from such expansion; Advantage's 2018 capital program, including the amount thereof, the amount to be allocated to increase annual production, to drilling and completions, to land and to facilities and infrastructure; Advantage's drilling plans for 2017, 2018 and 2019, including the number of wells to be drilled and the timing of completion of certain wells; estimated three year annual return on capital; Advantage's anticipated capital expenditures, annual production, royalty rates, operating costs, liquids transportation costs, netbacks, annual cash flow, cash flow per share, funds from operations, total debt to trailing cash flow ratio, total debt to cash flow, cumulative cash surplus, well costs, bank debt and total corporate cash costs for 2017 and 2018; Advantage's anticipated capital expenditures, annual production, annual cash flow per share, funds from operations, all-in capital efficiency, netbacks, cumulative cash surplus, bank debt and total debt to trailing cash flow ratio for each of 2018 and 2019; expected increases in production in 2017, 2018 and 2019 resulting from Advantage s development plan; Advantage's future hedging positions; and other matters. These statements involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond Advantage s control, including, but not limited to: changes in general economic, market, industry and business conditions; impact of significant declines in market prices for oil and natural gas; actions by governmental or regulatory authorities including increasing taxes or royalties and changes in investment, or other regulations; changes in tax laws, environmental laws, royalty regimes and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry; the effect of acquisitions; Advantage's success at acquisition, exploitation and development of reserves; unexpected drilling results; changes in commodity prices, currency exchange rates, capital expenditures, reserves or reserves estimates and debt service requirements; the occurrence of unexpected events involved in the exploration for, and the operation and development of, oil and gas properties; changes or fluctuations in production levels; delays in anticipated timing of drilling and completion of wells; delays in completion of the expansion of the Glacier gas plant; lack of available capacity on pipelines; individual well productivity; the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management; liabilities inherent in oil and natural gas operations; uncertainties associated with estimating oil and natural gas reserves; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems and other difficulties in producing petroleum reserves; ability to obtain required approvals of regulatory authorities; ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources; and certain other risks and uncertainties described in Advantage's Annual Information Form which is available at and Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. With respect to forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, Advantage has made assumptions regarding, but not limited to: conditions in general economic and financial markets; effects of regulation by governmental agencies; current and future commodity prices, royalty regimes, exchange rates, royalty rates, operating costs, cash costs, well costs and liquids transportation costs; frac stages and lateral lengths per well; estimated EURs; availability of skilled labor and drilling and related equipment; timing and amount of capital expenditures; the impact of increasing competition; that Advantage will have sufficient cash flow, debt or equity sources or other financial resources required to fund its capital and operating expenditures and requirements as needed; that Advantage's conduct and results of operations will be consistent with its expectations; that Advantage will have the ability to develop its properties in the manner currently contemplated; available pipeline capacity; that Advantage will be able to complete the expansion and increase capacity at the Glacier gas plant; that Advantage's production will increase; current or, where applicable, proposed assumed industry conditions, laws and regulations will continue in effect or as anticipated; and that the estimates of Advantage's production and reserves volumes and the assumptions related thereto (including commodity prices and development costs) are accurate in all material respects. Production estimates contained herein for the years ended December 31, 2017, 2018 and 2019 are expressed as anticipated average production over the calendar year. In determining anticipated production for the years ended December 31, 2017, 2018 and 2019 Advantage considered historical drilling, completion and production results for prior years and took into account the estimated impact on production of Advantage's 2017, 2018 and 2019 expected drilling and completion activities. Management has included the above summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information in order to provide shareholders with a more complete perspective on Advantage's future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Advantage s actual decisions, activities, results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that Advantage will derive there from. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation and Advantage disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, other than as required by applicable securities laws.. 37

38 ADVISORY Advantage discloses several financial measures that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS"). These financial measures include total debt to trailing cash flow ratio, total cash costs, funds from operations and operating netbacks. Total debt to trailing cash flow ratio is calculated as bank indebtedness under Advantage's credit facilities plus working capital deficit divided by funds from operations for the prior twelve month period. Total cash costs includes royalties, operating costs, liquids transportation, cash G&A, interest & other cash expenses. Funds from operations is based on cash provided by operating activities, before expenditures on decommissioning liability and changes in non-cash working capital, reduced for finance expense excluding accretion. Operating netbacks are calculated by deducting royalties and operating costs from revenue on a unit (boe or mcfe) basis. Management believes that these financial measures are useful supplemental information to analyze operating performance and provide an indication of the results generated by Advantage s principal business activities. Investors should be cautioned that these measures should not be construed as an alternative to net income, cash provided by operating activities or other measures of financial performance as determined in accordance with IFRS. Advantage s method of calculating these measures may differ from other companies, and accordingly, they may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. Please see Advantage s most recent Management s Discussion and Analysis, which is available at and for additional information about these financial measures, including a reconciliation of funds from operations to cash provided by operating activities. This presentation and, in particular the information in respect of Advantage's prospective cash flow debt to trailing cash flow ratio, total cash costs and cash costs per share, operating costs, capital expenditures, annual cash flow and funds from operations may contain future oriented financial information ("FOFI") within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The FOFI has been prepared by management to provide an outlook of Advantage's activities and results and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The FOFI has been prepared based on a number of assumptions, including the assumptions discussed above, and assumptions with respect to the costs and expenditures to be incurred by Advantage, capital equipment and operating costs, foreign exchange rates, taxation rates for Advantage, general and administrative expenses and the prices to be paid for Advantage's production. Management does not have firm commitments for all of the costs, expenditures, prices or other financial assumptions used to prepare the FOFI or assurance that such operating results will be achieved and, accordingly, the complete financial effects of all of those costs, expenditures, prices and operating results are not objectively determinable. The actual results of operations of Advantage and the resulting financial results may vary from the amounts set forth herein, and such variations may be material. Management believes that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management s best estimates and judgments. However, because this information is highly subjective and subject to numerous risks including the risks discussed above, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. FOFI contained in this presentation was made as of the date of this presentation and Advantage disclaims any intention or obligations to update or revise any FOFI contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant to applicable law. References in this presentation to initial test production rates, production type curves, initial "productivity", initial "flow" rates, final gas flow rates, average gas flow rates, average type curves, "flush" production rates and "30 day IP rates" and other short-term production rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery. Additionally, such rates may also include recovered "load oil" fluids used in well completion stimulation. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for Advantage. A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out in respect of all wells. Accordingly, Advantage cautions that the test results should be considered to be preliminary. Certain type curves presented herein represent estimates of the production decline and ultimate volumes expected to be recovered from wells over the life of the well. The 7.5 mmcf/d IP (which represents the average 30 day initial production rate) and 7.5 Bcfe (which represents the ultimate volumes expected to be recovered from the wells over the life of the well based on the type curve) Upper and Lower Montney type curve and the 5 mmcf/d IP and 5 Bcfe Middle Montney type curve are management generated type curves based on a combination of historical performance of older wells and management's expectation of what might be achieved from future wells. The type curves represent what management thinks an average well will achieve. Individual wells may be higher or lower but over a larger number of wells management expects the average to come out to the type curve. Over time type curves can and will change based on achieving more production history on older wells or more recent completion information on newer wells. Other type curves presented herein, including the 9 mmcf/d IP and 9 Bcf Upper and LowerMontney type curve and the 6 mmcf/d IP and 6 Bcf Middle Montney type curve have been provided to demonstrate the economics associated with wells that could potentially have that type of productivity and recovery but do not represent management estimates of how such wells will actually perform. This presentation discloses over 1,100 undeveloped future drilling locations at Glacier in the following categories: (i) proved (247 locations); (ii) proved + probable (307 locations); and (iii) unbooked (over 793 additional locations). Proved locations and probable locations are derived from Advantage s most recent independent reserves evaluation as prepared by Sproule Associates Limited as of December 31, 2016 and account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal estimates based on Advantage s prospective acreage and an assumption as to the number of wells that can be drilled per section based on industry practice and internal review. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves or resources. Unbooked locations have been identified by management as an estimation of our multi-year drilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that Advantage 38

39 ADVISORY will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling locations on which we actually drill wells will ultimately depend upon the availability of capital, regulatory approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors. While certain of the unbooked drilling locations have been derisked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity to such unbooked drilling locations, other unbooked drilling locations are farther away from existing wells where management has less information about the characteristics of the reservoir and therefore there is more uncertainty whether wells will be drilled in such locations and if drilled there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. This presentation also contains projections of production growth based on drilling and recompletion opportunities identified by management of Advantage. Certain of the drilling opportunities identified have no associated reserves or resources which can presently be classified as recoverable. As such the initial rates of production and reserves per well identified herein do not represent estimates of future production or reserves associated with the drilling opportunities. The initial rates of production, reserves per well and the capital costs associated with drilling and recompletion identified below are based on Advantage's historical results and analogous public information received from other producers using similar technologies as Advantage intends to use in the same or similar areas and formations. The initial rates of production, reserves per well and capital costs associated with the wells have been provided herein to give an indication of management's assumptions used for budgeting, planning and forecasting purposes. The initial rates of production, reserves and capital costs will most likely be different than projected. Throughout this presentation the terms boe, mcfe (thousand of cubic feet of gas equivalent), mmcfe, bcfe and tcfe are used. Such terms may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. The conversion ratio used herein of six thousand cubic feet per barrel (6 mcf: 1 bbl) of natural gas to barrels of oil equivalent and the conversion ratio used herein of 1 barrel per six thousand cubic feet (1 bbl: 6 mcf) of barrels of oil to natural gas equivalent is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. This presentation contains certain oil and gas metrics, including EUR, PDP F&D, 2P F&D, 1P F&D, operating netbacks, cash flow netbacks, all-in netbacks, recycle ratio and CAGR which do not have standardized meanings or standard methods of calculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies and should not be used to make comparisons. Such metrics have been included herein to provide readers with additional measures to evaluate Advantage's performance; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the future performance of Advantage and future performance may not compare to the performance in previous periods and therefore such metrics should not be unduly relied upon. EUR represents the 2P estimated ultimate recoverable conventional natural gas volumes per well assigned by Advantage's internal non-independent qualified reserves evaluator in accordance with the Canadian Oil & Gas Evaluation Handbook. PDP F&D is calculated by adding together all capital expenditures including exploration and development costs and dividing the sum by PDP reserves additions. 2P F&D is calculated by adding together all capital expenditures including exploration and development costs and the change in future development costs and dividing the sum by 2P reserve additions. 1P F&D is calculated by adding together all capital expenditures including exploration and development costs and the change in future development costs and dividing the sum by 1P reserve additions. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserve additions for that year. Operating netbacks are calculated by deducting royalties, operating costs and transportation costs from revenue on a unit (mcfe) basis. Cash flow netbacks are calculated by deducting royalties, operating costs, transportation costs, cash G&A and cash finance expenses from revenue on a unit (mcfe) basis. All-in netbacks are calculated by deducting royalties, operating costs, transportation costs, cash G&A, cash finance expenses and PDP F&D from revenue on a unit (mcfe) basis. Recycle ratio is calculated as Cash flow netbacks divided by 2P F&D. CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth Rate representing the measure of average annual growth over multiple time periods. In this presentation certain financial and operating metrics of other issuers are also presented to compare such metrics to Advantage's results. Such other issuers were included to show how Advantage's performance compares to some of its peers. The financial and operating metrics of such issuers have been obtained from public sources and have not been independently verified by Advantage. Readers should not base an investment decision for the securities of such issuers based on the information available herein. Advantage disclaims any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information relating to such other issuers presented herein. Where any disclosure of reserves data and resources is made in this presentation that does not reflect all reserves of Advantage, the reader should note that the estimates of reserves, future net revenue and resources for individual properties or groups of properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. 39

40 ADVANTAGE CONTACT INFORMATION Investor Relations Listed on NYSE and TSX: AAV Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. Suite 300, 440 2nd Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 5E9 Main: Facsimile: Advantage 100% W.I. Glacier Gas Plant Andy Mah, P.Eng. Craig Blackwood, C.A. Neil Bokenfohr, P.Eng. Director, President & Chief Executive Officer VP Finance & Chief Financial Officer Senior Vice President