Apache Corp. (APA) Extending Its Stay in the Growth Impound Lot
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- Adele Evans
- 6 years ago
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1 Americas/United States Equity Research Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (15 Feb 13, US$) Target price (US$) ¹ 52-week price range Market cap. (US$ m) 31, Enterprise value (US$ m) 42, *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ¹Target price is for 12 months. Research Analysts Arun Jayaram, CFA David Yedid Helen Xu Apache Corp. (APA) FOCUS LIST Extending Its Stay in the Growth Impound Lot Our take: APA is in the early stages of a significant transition in its portfolio, shifting the bulk of its growth capex toward its U.S. onshore liquids properties. Unfortunately, steeper declines across several offshore regions are masking underlying strength in its core U.S. onshore assets. The shift to a more predictable growth strategy via U.S. onshore properties should support a relative re-rating in the valuation, but we acknowledge that the time frame for potential outperformance has likely shifted into the back half of 2013 given a slower-than-expected start to the year. Meanwhile, 2014 is poised to be a stronger year for growth given the timing of major projects. The Credit Suisse Investment Policy Committee (IPC) removes APA from its U.S. Focus List. While we are maintaining our Outperform rating, the Credit Suisse IPC has removed APA from its Focus List given the shift in the perceived risk-reward profile. Despite modest expectations, guidance disappoints. The market was looking for signs that 2012 production shortfalls were transitory in nature and the shift to a U.S. onshore growth strategy would lead to more predictable growth. While the buyside anticipated a guidance cut relative to APA s lofty 6-9% growth from its June 2012 analyst day, 3-5% was lower than expected (we think consensus was 4-7%). Meanwhile, a stagnant production profile since October as well as an anticipated sequential decline in Q1 production has reinvigorated the bear thesis that APA cannot grow. Share price performance Daily Feb 21, Feb 15, 2013, 2/21/12 = US$ Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Price Indexed S&P 500 INDEX On 02/15/13 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012A 2013E E Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/12A 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Revenue (US$ m) EBIDAX (US$ m) 17, , , , , , , ,045.5 EPS (CS adj.) (US$) Prev. EPS (US$) ROGIC (%) P/E (x) P/E rel. (%) OCFPS (US$) P/OCF (x) Qtrly ent. val./tot. EBIDAX Net debt (US$ m) 11,749 11,389 12,221 13,248 Dividend (current, US$) Dividend yield (%) Net debt current qtr (US$ m) 11,717.4 Net debt/tot cap (Next Qtr., %) 36.5 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) 75.7 GIC (12/13E, US$) 46,372.7 EV qtr/gic (x) 0.99 Current WACC Free float (%) Number of shares (m) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
2 Reset of expectations is the first step in the process. We believe one of the key lessons management has learned is that the base decline for its offshore assets as well as Canada were steeper than expected judging by recent results and guidance. While painful, we believe the reset of growth expectations to a more realistic range is an important first step in rebuilding market confidence. Estimate revision: We are revising our 2013/2014 EPS estimates to $9.70/$9.62 from $11.10/$11.51 to incorporate lower production forecasts as well as updated company guidance on costs. We now anticipate 3%, 5%, and 5% production growth from 2013 to 2015 versus 5%, 8%, and 6% previously. We reiterate our Outperform rating but are lowering our 12-month target price to $100 from $104 per share, which assumes approximately 95% of our NAV and 4.2 times our 2013 EBIDA estimate. Repeat of Earnings First Impression Flash Bullets Outsized capex to Permian and Central is noteworthy: 2012 was a transition year for APA as the company began to shift to more predictable U.S. onshore focused growth, which is the core part of our investment thesis. While the U.S. onshore growth regions (Permian and Central) outpaced even the most bullish forecasts, the transition was challenging as the company s offshore and international regions underwhelmed. Despite the disappointing performance outside of its U.S. onshore segments, we expect the shares to re-rate as the company concentrates its 2013 capex program into the Permian and Central regions (33% of 2013 program versus 15% in 2012). Permian Basin and Central Regions. APA s key U.S. onshore assets grew 7% sequentially to 197 MBoe/d, reflecting 6% sequential growth in the Permian and 10% growth at Central. In the Permian, APA cited strong performance at Deadwood and Yeso for the better than expected sequential growth in production. Meanwhile, the company is expanding activity in the Wolfcamp Shale (Irion County) and Cline Shale. Through year-end, APA had drilled 17 Wolfcamp HZ wells, with 30-day IP rates above 600 Boe/d. Steady as she goes in Egypt. APA s gross Egypt production of 360 MBoe/d was essentially flat, but net volumes rose 9 MBoe/d reflecting PSC effects. APA indicated that it received a new concession in the latest bid round, with the PSC expected to be finalized in Canada, Australia production impacted by downtime. In Canada, the company s sequential production declined 5%, reflecting another quarter of unanticipated downtime related to pipelines and third party gas processing. APA had a notable well result in the Bluesky play, with a 30-day IP rate of 2,184 Boe/d. It will be interesting to see how much running room the company has in this play as well as the Montney and Duvernay. Australia production fell 5% sequentially, reflecting natural field declines and some weather related shut-ins. Strong cash flow beat: APA reported 4Q12 adjusted EPS of $2.27, compared to our estimate of $2.43 and consensus of $2.29. Operating cash flow of $2,767 MM topped our forecast and consensus by 9% and 10%, respectively. Variance: Adjusted EPS of $2.27 trailed our estimate by $0.16 or 6.6%. The delta was driven primarily by higher DD&A (-$0.09), higher production taxes (-$0.08) and a higher share count (-$0.09), which were partially offset by higher North America oil volumes (+$0.02), higher Egypt oil volumes (+$0.04), and lower lease operating and gathering costs (+$0.04). Total production light on gas, growth where it matters. Total production for the quarter was a little light at 800 MBoe/d versus our 804 MBoe/d estimate and Apache Corp. (APA) 2
3 Consensus of 806 MBoe/d. However, the miss was driven by low value natural gas, while oil growth was impressive. In particular, significant oil production growth from the Permian and Central continues, up 4.3 MBopd and 4.0 MBopd, respectively. Total US oil growth (Shelf up 6.2 Mbopd) was up 19 Mbopd or 13%. Natural gas production of 2.2 Bcf/d was 3.6% below our estimate. The primary driver was Canada, which fell 9% or 54 MMcfe/d, primarily due to infrastructure issues Capex in line, within cash flows. Apache estimates 2013 capex of $10.5 billion, driven by $9.2 billion for exploration and development, $450 million of P&A and $850 million of infrastructure. This is roughly in line with our $10 billion estimate, and in line with Consensus of $10.5 billion. This is well within our cash flow estimate with CS oil price forecasts ($11.5 billion) as well as the strip ($10.7 billion). Of note, APA will spend $3.6 billion, or ~33% of its budget on the Permian/Central versus $1.6 billion or 15% in New Ventures capital appears to be minimal, at only $100 million. Apache Corp. (APA) 3
4 Financial Summary Exhibit 1: APA Financial Summary Page Apache Corp (APA) ($ millions, except per share) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E EPS $9.49 $9.70 $9.62 $7.98 CFPS $24.60 $26.69 $28.06 $27.58 Net income $3,805 $3,951 $3,918 $3,251 Interest expense $165 $160 $149 $81 Effective tax rate 61% 44% 44% 44% Average fully diluted shares EBITDA $12,182 $12,928 $13,445 $12,830 Depreciation $5,940 $5,577 $6,163 $6,807 EBIT $5,042 $7,351 $7,281 $6,023 Cash flow from operations $9,025 $10,950 $11,507 $11,313 Capex* $9,802 $10,500 $12,000 $12,000 Free cash flow from operations -$777 $450 -$493 -$687 Year-end cash balance $385 $745 $913 $286 Year-end debt $12,134 $12,134 $13,134 $13,534 Year-end net debt $11,749 $11,389 $12,221 $13,248 Net Debt/EBITDA 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x 1.0x Net Debt/Capitalization 27% 25% 24% 24% Production Oil (MMBbls) % growth 4% 5% 8% 6% % of total 45% 46% 47% 48% Average realized price $ $ $ $92.62 Natural Gas Liquids (MMBbls) % growth 38% 38% 19% 18% % of total 6% 7% 8% 9% Average realized price $32.73 $28.91 $26.19 $21.91 Gas (Bcf) % growth 2% -2% 0% 2% % of total 49% 47% 44% 43% Average realized price $3.51 $3.82 $4.30 $4.50 Total (MMBoe) % growth 4% 3% 5% 5% Credit Suisse Commodity Price Outlook WTI Crude Oil ($ per barrel) $94.14 $ $ $92.00 Brent Crude ($ per barrel) $ $ $ $ US Natural Gas ($ per mcf) $2.80 $3.70 $4.30 $4.50 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Apache Corp. (APA) 4
5 Apache Corp. (APA) 5 Exhibit 2: APA Income Statement Apache Corporation (APA) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year INCOME STATEMENT ($MM) REVENUE Oil and gas production revenue $16,947.0 $18,228.2 $19,165.5 $18,772.6 $4,457.0 $3,956.0 $4,141.0 $4,393.0 $16,947.0 $4,178.1 $4,493.7 $4,640.3 $4,916.1 $18,228.2 $4,731.3 $4,734.7 $4,882.1 $4,817.4 $19,165.5 Other revenue (2.0) TOTAL REVENUE $17,078.0 $18,228.2 $19,165.5 $18,772.6 $4,536.0 $3,972.0 $4,179.0 $4,391.0 $17,078.0 $4,178.1 $4,493.7 $4,640.3 $4,916.1 $18,228.2 $4,731.3 $4,734.7 $4,882.1 $4,817.4 $19,165.5 COSTS AND EXPENSES Depreciation, depletion, and amortization $5,940.0 $5,576.5 $6,163.4 $6,806.8 $1,219.0 $1,284.0 $2,029.0 $1,408.0 $5,940.0 $1,349.2 $1,386.6 $1,413.0 $1,427.7 $5,576.5 $1,474.2 $1,527.2 $1,568.5 $1,593.5 $6,163.4 Asset retirement obligation accretion and other Lease operating costs 2, , , , , , ,544.0 Gathering and transportation Taxes other than income , , ,025.2 General and administrative Impairment, abandonment & other 1, , TOTAL EXPENSES $12,036.0 $10,876.8 $11,884.0 $12,749.6 $2,936.0 $3,116.0 $3,274.0 $2,710.0 $12,036.0 $2,619.2 $2,702.4 $2,757.1 $2,798.0 $10,876.8 $2,850.4 $2,943.9 $3,024.6 $3,065.1 $11,884.0 OPERATING INCOME (EBIT) $5,042.0 $7,351.4 $7,281.5 $6,023.0 $1,600.0 $856.0 $905.0 $1,681.0 $5,042.0 $1,558.9 $1,791.3 $1,883.2 $2,118.1 $7,351.4 $1,881.0 $1,790.8 $1,857.5 $1,752.2 $7,281.5 OTHER EXPENSES Interest expense $165.0 $160.0 $149.1 $81.4 $40.0 $45.0 $40.0 $40.0 $165.0 $40.0 $40.0 $40.0 $40.0 $160.0 $41.8 $43.6 $43.6 $20.1 $149.1 Other expense (income) Pre-tax income $4,877.0 $7,191.4 $7,132.4 $5,941.6 $1,560.0 $811.0 $865.0 $1,641.0 $4,877.0 $1,518.9 $1,751.3 $1,843.2 $2,078.1 $7,191.4 $1,839.2 $1,747.2 $1,813.9 $1,732.1 $7,132.4 Current Income Tax 2, , , , , , ,039.9 Deferred Income Tax , , (5.0) , ,098.4 Total Income Tax Expense (Benefit) 2, , , , , , ,138.3 Effective Tax Rate 61% 44% 44% 44% 49% 56% 79% 59% 61% 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% REPORTED NET INCOME $2,001.0 $4,027.2 $3,994.1 $3,327.3 $797.0 $356.0 $180.0 $668.0 $2,001.0 $850.6 $980.7 $1,032.2 $1,163.7 $4,027.2 $1,029.9 $978.4 $1,015.8 $970.0 $3,994.1 Less: Preferred Dividends REPORTED NET INCOME TO COMMON $1,925.0 $3,951.2 $3,918.1 $3,251.3 $778.0 $337.0 $161.0 $649 $1,925.0 $831.6 $961.7 $1,013.2 $1,144.7 $3,951.2 $1,010.9 $959.4 $996.8 $951.0 $3,918.1 Special items/adjustments 1, , ADJUSTED NET INCOME TO COMMON $3,805.0 $3,951.2 $3,918.1 $3,251.3 $1,197.0 $840.0 $861.0 $907.0 $3,805.0 $831.6 $961.7 $1,013.2 $1,144.7 $3,951.2 $1,010.9 $959.4 $996.8 $951.0 $3,918.1 ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (BASIC) $9.77 $10.11 $10.02 $8.32 $3.11 $2.15 $2.20 $2.32 $9.77 $2.13 $2.46 $2.59 $2.93 $10.11 $2.59 $2.45 $2.55 $2.43 $10.02 ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (DILUTED) $9.49 $9.70 $9.62 $7.98 $3.00 $2.07 $2.16 $2.27 $9.49 $2.04 $2.36 $2.49 $2.81 $9.70 $2.48 $2.36 $2.45 $2.33 $9.62 Cash Flow Per Share (Basic) $25.34 $27.81 $29.24 $28.74 $6.52 $5.57 $6.18 $7.08 $25.34 $6.32 $6.85 $7.09 $7.55 $27.81 $7.23 $7.21 $7.44 $7.36 $29.24 Cash Flow Per Share (Diluted) $24.60 $26.69 $28.06 $27.58 $6.29 $5.37 $6.15 $6.79 $24.60 $6.07 $6.57 $6.80 $7.25 $26.69 $6.94 $6.92 $7.14 $7.06 $28.06 EBITDA $12,182.0 $12,928.0 $13,444.9 $12,829.8 $3,346.0 $2,804.0 $2,941.0 $3,091.0 $12,182.0 $2,908.1 $3,177.9 $3,296.2 $3,545.8 $12,928.0 $3,355.2 $3,318.0 $3,426.0 $3,345.7 $13,444.9 Less: cash taxes 1, , EBIDA $10,588.0 $11,978.7 $12,503.4 $12,045.5 $2,659.0 $2,339.0 $2,538.0 $3,052.0 $10,588.0 $2,707.6 $2,946.7 $3,052.9 $3,271.5 $11,978.7 $3,112.4 $3,087.3 $3,186.6 $3,117.1 $12,503.4 Basic Shares Fully Diluted Shares Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
6 Apache Corp. (APA) 6 Exhibit 3: APA Cash Flow Statement Apache Corporation (APA) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Discretionary Cash Flow Statement ($MM) Adjusted Net Income $3,805.0 $3,951.2 $3,918.1 $3,251.3 $1,197.0 $840.0 $861.0 $907.0 $3,805.0 $831.6 $961.7 $1,013.2 $1,144.7 $3,951.2 $1,010.9 $959.4 $996.8 $951.0 $3,918.1 Depreciation, depletion, and amort 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,163.4 Deferred income taxes , , (5.0) , ,098.4 Other non-cash (518.0) (615.0) (15.0) (518.0) Discretionary Cash Flow $9,868.0 $10,874.5 $11,431.2 $11,237.3 $2,509.0 $2,176.0 $2,416.0 $2,767.0 $9,868.0 $2,472.6 $2,677.5 $2,770.6 $2,953.7 $10,874.5 $2,828.5 $2,817.9 $2,908.6 $2,876.2 $11,431.2 Cash Flow Statement ($MM) OPERATING ACTIVITIES Net Income (Loss) $2,001.0 $4,027.2 $3,994.1 $3,327.3 $797.0 $356.0 $180.0 $668.0 $2,001.0 $850.6 $980.7 $1,032.2 $1,163.7 $4,027.2 $1,029.9 $978.4 $1,015.8 $970.0 $3,994.1 Depreciation, depletion, and Amort 7, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,163.4 Asset retirement obligation accretion Deferred income taxes , , (5.0) , ,098.4 Unrealized gain on commodity derivatives Other Net Cash Provided Before Working Capital Changes 10, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,507.2 Change in working capital (1,020.0) (641.0) (793.0) 0.0 (1,020.0) TOTAL FUNDS FROM OPERATIONS $9,025.0 $10,950.5 $11,507.2 $11,313.3 $2,007.0 $2,792.0 $1,623.0 $2,603.0 $9,025.0 $2,491.6 $2,696.5 $2,789.6 $2,972.7 $10,950.5 $2,847.5 $2,836.9 $2,927.6 $2,895.2 $11,507.2 INVESTING ACTIVITIES Capital expenditures ($9,802.0) ($10,500.0) ($12,000.0) ($12,000.0) ($2,406.0) ($1,792.0) ($2,775.0) ($2,829.0) ($9,802.0) ($2,625.0) ($2,625.0) ($2,625.0) ($2,625.0) ($10,500.0) ($3,000.0) ($3,000.0) ($3,000.0) ($3,000.0) ($12,000.0) Acquisitions (2,910.0) (200.0) (2,472.0) (116.0) (122.0) (2,910.0) Proceeds from asset sales Other (825.0) (36.0) (680.0) (109.0) 0.0 (825.0) TOTAL FUNDS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES ($13,511.0) ($10,250.0) ($12,000.0) ($12,000.0) ($2,642.0) ($4,944.0) ($2,974.0) ($2,951.0) ($13,511.0) ($2,375.0) ($2,625.0) ($2,625.0) ($2,625.0) ($10,250.0) ($3,000.0) ($3,000.0) ($3,000.0) ($3,000.0) ($12,000.0) FINANCING ACTIVITIES Commercial paper, credit facility and bank notes, net $2,327.0 $0.0 $1,000.0 $400.0 $657.0 ($626.0) $1,796.0 $500.0 $2,327.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $500.0 $500.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1,000.0 Other Debt Borrowings, Net of payments 2, , , Common Stock Issued (Purchased) Preferred Stock Proceeds (Conversions), Net Dividends Paid (331.0) (340.0) (340.0) (340.0) (77.0) (84.0) (85.0) (85.0) (331.0) (85.0) (85.0) (85.0) (85.0) (340.0) (85.0) (85.0) (85.0) (85.0) (340.0) Common Stock Activity Treasury Stock Activity, Net Other (430.0) (30.0) (403.0) 0.0 (430.0) TOTAL FUNDS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES $4,576.0 ($340.0) $660.0 $60.0 $585.0 $2,268.0 $1,308.0 $415.0 $4,576.0 ($85.0) ($85.0) ($85.0) ($85.0) ($340.0) $415.0 $415.0 ($85.0) ($85.0) $660.0 INCREASE (DEC.) IN CASH AND EQUIVALENTS $90.0 $360.5 $167.2 ($626.7) ($50.0) $116.0 ($43.0) $67.0 $90.0 $31.6 ($13.5) $79.6 $262.7 $360.5 $262.5 $251.9 ($157.4) ($189.8) $167.2 Cash And Cash Equivalents At Beginning of Period , , , Cash And Cash Equivalents At End Of Period $385.0 $745.5 $912.6 $286.0 $245.0 $361.0 $318.0 $385.0 $385.0 $416.6 $403.1 $482.7 $745.5 $745.5 $1,007.9 $1,259.9 $1,102.5 $912.6 $912.6 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
7 Apache Corp. (APA) 7 Exhibit 4: APA Production Forecast Apache Corporation (APA) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year PRODUCTION VOLUMES DAILY PRODUCTION CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATE (MBbl/d) Gulf Coast Central Permian United States Canada TOTAL NORTH AMERICA Egypt Australia North Sea Argentina China TOTAL INTERNATIONAL WORLDWIDE OIL TOTAL NATURAL GAS (MMcf/d) Gulf Coast Central Permian United States Canada TOTAL NORTH AMERICA Egypt Australia North Sea Argentina TOTAL INTERNATIONAL WORLDWIDE GAS TOTAL 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,239.7 NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS (Bbl/d) Gulf Coast Central Permian United States Canada TOTAL NORTH AMERICA Egypt and North Sea Argentina TOTAL INTERNATIONAL WORLDWIDE NGL TOTAL BOE VOLUMES (Mboe/d) Gulf Coast Central Permian United States Canada TOTAL NORTH AMERICA Egypt Australia North Sea Argentina TOTAL INTERNATIONAL WORLDWIDE TOTAL (Mboe/d) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
8 Apache Corp. (APA) 8 Exhibit 5: APA Balance Sheet Apache Corporation (APA) 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/ /31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/ /31/2013 3/31/2014 6/30/2014 9/30/ /31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/ /31/2015 ASSETS ($MM) Cash and equivalents $245 $361 $318 $385 $417 $403 $483 $745 $1,008 $1,260 $1,102 $913 $583 $288 $271 $286 Accounts receivable, net 3,163 2,625 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 Inventories Other current assets Total Current Assets $4,954 $4,639 $5,044 $5,111 $5,143 $5,129 $5,209 $5,471 $5,734 $5,986 $5,828 $5,639 $5,309 $5,014 $4,997 $5,012 Property, plant & equipment, net $45,829 $50,135 $51,164 $52,647 $53,865 $55,044 $56,195 $57,331 $58,797 $60,207 $61,575 $62,917 $64,200 $65,456 $66,661 $67,846 Goodwill 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 Other non-current assets 1,340 1,329 1,488 1,488 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 Total Assets $53,237 $57,217 $58,810 $60,360 $61,359 $62,525 $63,756 $65,155 $66,883 $68,545 $69,755 $70,907 $71,861 $72,823 $74,010 $75,210 LIABILITIES Accounts payable 1,059 1,061 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,137 Other current liabilities 3,210 3,492 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 Current debt Total Current Liabilities $4,698 $5,121 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 $5,390 Long-term debt 7,444 9,670 10,670 11,170 11,170 11,170 11,170 11,170 11,670 12,170 12,170 12,170 12,170 12,170 12,370 12,570 Other non-current liabilities 11,380 11,753 12,036 12,503 12,737 13,007 13,290 13,610 13,894 14,163 14,442 14,709 14,933 15,159 15,390 15,624 Total Liabilities $23,522 $26,544 $28,096 $29,063 $29,297 $29,567 $29,850 $30,170 $30,954 $31,723 $32,002 $32,269 $32,493 $32,719 $33,150 $33,584 Working capital $256 ($482) ($346) ($279) ($247) ($261) ($181) $81 $344 $596 $438 $249 ($81) ($376) ($393) ($378) SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY Common stock and paid-in capital $9,348 $9,348 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 $10,028 Preferred stock 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 1,227 Retained earnings, net 19,140 19,412 19,459 20,042 20,808 21,703 22,650 23,729 24,674 25,568 26,498 27,383 28,113 28,849 29,605 30,371 Total Stockholders' Equity 29,715 30,673 30,714 31,297 32,063 32,958 33,905 34,984 35,929 36,823 37,753 38,638 39,368 40,104 40,860 41,626 Non-controlling interests Total Equity $29,715 $30,673 $30,714 $31,297 $32,063 $32,958 $33,905 $34,984 $35,929 $36,823 $37,753 $38,638 $39,368 $40,104 $40,860 $41,626 Total Liabilities and Equity $53,237 $57,217 $58,810 $60,360 $61,359 $62,525 $63,756 $65,155 $66,883 $68,545 $69,755 $70,907 $71,861 $72,823 $74,010 $75,210 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
9 Companies Mentioned (Price as of 15-Feb-2013) Apache Corp. (APA.N, $76.85, OUTPERFORM, TP $100.0) Important Global Disclosures Disclosure Appendix I, Arun Jayaram, CFA, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Price and Rating History for Apache Corp. (APA.N) APA.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 22-Feb O 15-Apr R 26-Dec O 28-Mar Jun NR 02-Feb O * 27-Mar Apr Jul Aug * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. O U T PERFO RM REST RICT ED N O T RA T ED The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities As of December 10, 2012 Analysts stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) : The stock s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) : The stock s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Amer ican and non-japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock s total return potential within an analyst s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the % and % levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark. Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances. Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward. Analysts sector weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the analyst s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group s historic fundamentals and/or valuation: Overweight : The analyst s expectation for the sector s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months. Market Weight : The analyst s expectation for the sector s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months. Underweight : The analyst s expectation for the sector s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months. *An analyst s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors. Apache Corp. (APA) 9
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