Using Diversification to Help Manage Risk and Return

Transcription

1 Global Investment Strategy Using Diversification to Help Manage Risk and Return A Prudent Approach to Investing Over the Long Term Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy Chris Haverland, CFA Global Asset Allocation Strategist Sameer Samana, CFA Global and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways 2017 was a strong year with most asset classes posting positive returns. Emerging market equities had the best performance, while bonds in general underperformed equities.» Investing only in the top-performing asset class each year would likely generate the best returns, however, such a feat is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to do consistently, even for seasoned investors.» Because forecasting market performance is challenging, we believe it s important to hold a diversified portfolio, even though it will produce a lower return than if you were able to pick the best performer in any given year.» Among its potential benefits, diversification is likely to generate more consistent returns. As a result, over the long term, a diversified portfolio may increase more in value than one that produces more volatile returns, which is the likely result of being concentrated in a single asset class. Of course, diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investment and Insurance Products: NOT FDIC Insured NO Bank Guarantee MAY Lose Value

2 2017: A Strong Year, for Most Asset Classes Emerging market stocks were the top-performing asset class in 2017, rising more than 37 percent. U.S. and international large companies also fared very well. Meanwhile, commodities and U.S. fixed income were among the laggards for the year. In general, equities outperformed fixed income, riskier assets outperformed less risky assets, and international assets outperformed U.S. assets. Many investors watch the markets by following the widely reported DJIA or S&P 500 Index. If these market indicators are the only ones an investor considers, they can often miss what s happening in other markets, including overseas. That s because the world of investments is significantly more diverse than these two domestic large-cap equity indexes. During some periods, certain asset classes will underperform these indexes, while in other periods the opposite holds true. This disparity in returns from one time period to the next often affects how a well-diversified portfolio performs when compared to a single-market index. History has shown that global markets at times can rise and fall in tandem, and when they do, returns across asset classes tend to be similar. In this type of environment, overall index returns are a fair representation of asset-class performance. However, at other times, global market performance diverges, and the returns across asset classes can vary greatly. In these years, some overseas markets can decline while U.S. markets rise. As a result, the DJIA or the S&P 500 Index will not be a fair representation of the global markets. Overall, asset-class performance in 2017 was impressive, as many asset classes ended the year with positive returns. Looking back several years, individual asset class returns have varied significantly, and the U.S. indexes have generally outperformed international markets. Consequently, some investors may be surprised, or even disappointed that their well-diversified portfolio has not reflected the S&P 500 Index s post-crisis performance, but pleased that their portfolio has not experienced the same level of volatility as the U.S. equity markets. In 2017, international equity markets outperformed U.S equities. International Equities Outperformed in 2017 The chart shows the S&P 500 Index s performance relative to the MSCI ACWI ex. U.S. performance in A portfolio invested solely in international stocks in 2017 was likely to end the year better than one composed of U.S equities. Index Level (indexed at 100 on 01/01/2017) MSCI ACWI excluding U.S. Index S&P Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sources: S&P, MSCI, Bloomberg, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Information is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Please see the end of the report for the descriptions of the risks associated with these asset classes and for definitions of the indices. 2

3 Diversification in 2017 Along with most segments of the global markets, a well-diversified portfolio in 2017 likely experienced solid returns. Such portfolios likely included some of the year s best-performing asset classes as well as some of the worst-performing. The bestperforming assets were in the international equity markets. On the other hand, the worst-performing assets included commodities and U.S. investment grade fixed income. An investor comparing a well-diversified portfolio against a simple benchmark composed of the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg Barclay s Aggregate Bond Index in 2017 might see that the diversified portfolio outperformed the simple benchmark, however, for much of the recovery that has not been the case. That s because the assets in the simple benchmark were two of the top-performing asset classes as the U.S. economy has recovered more quickly than many other areas of the world. A globallydiversified portfolio would probably have included more components found at the lower end of the return spectrum than the simple benchmark early in the cycle. Two of the worst-performing assets for much of the recovery, developed and emerging markets stocks, were actually among the best-performing assets during These asset classes were also strong performers during much of the previous decade because strong economic growth overseas attracted many investors into international markets to try to capture some of those growth opportunities. During much of the recovery, economic growth in overseas developed markets has lagged that of U.S. and emerging markets, acting as a headwind to international asset price returns. As a result, international equities have, at times, experienced low, or even negative, returns. In 2017, international economic and earnings growth improved, which supported equity prices and provided a lift to globally diversified portfolio returns. In 2017, international economic and earnings growth improved, which supported equity prices and provided a lift to globally diversified portfolio returns. Understanding Diversification s Potential Benefits and Limits The beginning of the year is prime season for investors to try to anticipate the outlook for the financial markets in the months ahead. Unfortunately, no one can know with certainty what the best- or worst-performing asset class will be in any given year. An investor who chooses to own only one asset U.S. large-cap stocks, for example with the hopes it will be the best performer that year could suffer disappointing results. The bottom line is putting all your eggs in one proverbial basket can significantly impede investment results and the ability to achieve your long-term goals. Experience has shown that long-term investors are more likely to achieve consistent results and grow their assets over time if they hold a diversified portfolio. That s because a diversified portfolio is more likely to benefit from growth opportunities across many different asset classes, not just one or two. Of course, a second benefit of portfolio diversification is it can help mitigate volatility of overall returns. The average return of a portfolio filled with an assortment of diversified assets is likely to fluctuate less year-to-year than the annual returns of the individual assets that compose the portfolio. Once your asset allocation is set, it s important to rebalance your portfolio at least annually, back to your intended allocation if the markets have moved significantly or you ve experienced a noteworthy life event (a birth, death, divorce, etc.) It s likely you ll be better off ignoring day-to-day fluctuations in the markets and focusing instead on your long-term plan. Using Diversification to Help Manage Risk and Return 3

4 As the chart below illustrates, a portfolio with more consistent returns over time may increase more in value when compared to portfolios that experience more volatile returns. All three portfolios in this example started with a $1 million investment and provided a 30 percent total arithmetic return over three years, but Portfolio A offered more consistent returns than the other two and, in the end, produced the better ending value. More Consistent Returns Can Produce Better Results A portfolio that generates consistent returns (Portfolio A) is likely to increase your wealth more than portfolios that produce more volatile returns (Portfolios B and C). Starting investment = $1 million Arithmetic Return for All Three Portfolios = 30% In millions $1.5 Ending value $1,331,000 $1,181,250 $1,296,000 $1.33 $1.0 $1.10 $1.21 $1.18 $1.20 $1.05 $.79 $.5 $1.44 $1.29 Source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute Information is hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. It does not represent the performance of any investment. A diversified portfolio s most important benefit may be that it can help mitigate the effects of unanticipated risks. Unexpected events can happen at any time and such developments typically affect some assets more than others. We believe the best approach for investors to deal with uncertainty is to hold a diversified portfolio that includes some asset classes that tend to be less impacted by market surprises. Of course, the notion of hedging against uncertainty comes with a tradeoff. Holding a wide array of assets in a portfolio will probably help smooth out returns during periods of heightened market volatility; however, adding assets to a portfolio can increase the likelihood that some will not perform as well as others. And this could potentially dampen portfolio returns at times, particularly when markets are calm. Focus on Long-Term Goals 10% 10% 10% 5% -25% 50% 20% 20% -10% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Portfolio A Portfolio B Portfolio C Investors should keep in mind that the benefits of diversification are often long-term rather than short-term in nature. However, investors tend to focus on how their portfolios perform on a shorter-term, year-to-year basis. They compare their portfolio performance to the return of a popular market index (like the DJIA or S&P 500 Index), which may, or may not, reflect the characteristics of their portfolio holdings or match their risk profile. Unfortunately, assessing a diversified portfolio s return against a simple benchmark can be like comparing apples to oranges. Consequently, investors need to understand diversification s benefits along with its limitations. Specifically, they should recognize that a well-diversified portfolio will, by definition, not be the best-performing portfolio in any given year. Some portfolio assets will have higher returns than the portfolio average, and others will have lower returns. Of course, collectively, the weighted average of the individual returns will match the overall portfolio return in any given year. 4

5 Diversification s Benefits Tend to Be Long Term One-year rolling excess return (simple balanced portfolio vs. simple global benchmark) The chart shows that on a rolling one-year basis over a 20-year period, a diversified portfolio consisting of many different asset classes has not always outperformed a simple global benchmark portfolio holding fewer assets. 15% 10% 1 Year Rolling Returns 5% Returns 0% -5% -10% -15% year rolling excess return (simple balanced portfolio vs. simple global benchmark) On the other hand, the chart below shows that over a much longer rolling 15-year basis, a diversified portfolio of many assets has consistently outperformed a simple global benchmark portfolio with fewer assets over the same period. 3% 2.5% 15 Years Rolling Returns Comparing the two charts helps demonstrate the importance of taking a longer- versus shorter-term perspective when looking at performance. 2% Returns 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0% Diversified allocation: Target allocation is for a growth and income oriented investor of moderate risk tolerance. The historical returns are based on allocations as of 8/31/2017, with quarterly rebalance to target allocations at the beginning of each period. Allocation: Moderate Growth & Income 4AG no PC= 3% BarCap US Treasury Bill 1-3 Months, 11% BarCap US Aggregate (5-7Y), 6% BarCap US Aggregate (10+Y), 6% BarCap US Corporate High Yield Index, 3% JPM GBI Global Ex-US TR USD Index, 5% JPM EMBI Global TR USD Index, 20% S&P 500 Index, 8% Russell Mid Cap TR USD Index, 6% Russell 2000 Index, 5% MSCI EAFE GR USD Index, 5% MSCI EM GR USD, 5% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed TR USD Index, 2% Bloomberg Index, 3% HFRI Relative Value Arbitrage Index, 6% HFRI Macro Index, 4% HFRI Event Driven Index, 2% HFRI Hedge Index. Simple Global Benchmark: 55% MSCI All Country World Index, 45% Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index Performance results are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Hypothetical results do not represent actual trading and the results achieved do not represent the experience of any individual investor. In addition, hypothetical results do not reflect the impact of any fees, expenses or taxes applicable to an actual investment. The indices reflect the historical performance of the represented assets and assume the reinvestment of dividends and other distributions. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Hypothetical and past performance does not guarantee future results. Different investments offer different levels of potential return and market risk. Please see the end of the report for the descriptions of the risks associated with these asset classes and for definitions of the indices. Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Morningstar Direct. The most widely used comparisons of returns may not always consider the reduced portfolio volatility diversification can offer. That s because portfolio performance is usually measured on the basis of total return and does not reflect the volatility of returns. For example, investors often select common benchmarks to compare portfolio performance. A simple two- or three-asset class benchmark may not have the same return as a well-diversified portfolio, especially in years when many assets in the portfolio do not move in tandem. This has been the case over the past few years. Using Diversification to Help Manage Risk and Return 5

6 Calendar Year Asset Class and Moderate Growth & Income () Allocation Returns Best Performance Worst % 1.8% -10.9% -24.3% -26.2% -33.8% -35.6% -37.0% -41.5% -43.1% -47.7% -53.2% 79.0% 58.2% 40.5% 38.3% 32.5% 28.2% 27.2% 26.5% 26.0% 18.9% 5.9% 0.1% 26.9% 25.5% 20.4% 19.2% 16.8% 15.1% 15.1% 14.6% 12.0% 8.2% 6.5% 0.1% 8.5% 7.8% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% -1.5% -4.2% -5.8% -11.7% -13.3% -18.2% 28.7% 18.6% 18.5% 17.9% 17.3% 16.3% 16.0% 15.8% 12.6% 4.2% 0.1% -1.1% 38.8% 34.8% 32.4% 23.3% 12.1% 7.4% 4.4% 0.0% -2.0% -2.3% -6.6% -9.5% 15.9% 13.7% 13.2% 6.6% 6.0% 5.5% 4.9% 2.5% 0.0% -1.8% -4.5% -17.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% -0.4% -1.9% -2.4% -4.4% -4.5% -14.6% -24.7% 21.3% 17.1% 13.8% 12.0% 11.8% 11.6% 10.2% 9.0% 5.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 37.8% 25.6% 21.8% 18.5% 14.6% 13.2% 11.4% 9.3% 7.5% 3.5% 1.7% 0.8% Moderate Growth & Income Portfolio: See below : Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bills (1-3 month) Index : Bloomberg Commodity Index Developed International : MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index Emerging Market : MSCI Emerging Markets Index Investment Grade : Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index : Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index : JPM EMBI Global Index : S&P 500 Index : Russell Midcap Growth Index : Russell 2000 Growth Index : FTSE EPRA/ NAREIT Developed Index Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Morningstar Direct. As of Dec. 31, Moderate Growth & Income= 3% Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Bill 1-3 Months, 11% Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate (5-7Y), 6% Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate (10+Y), 6% Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index, 3% JPM GBI Global Ex-US TR USD Index, 5% JPM EMBI Global TR USD Index, 20% S&P 500 Index, 8% Russell Mid Cap TR USD Index, 6% Russell 2000 Index, 5% MSCI EAFE GR USD Index, 5% MSCI EM GR USD, 5% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed TR USD Index, 2% Bloomberg Index, 3% HFRI Relative Value Arbitrage Index, 6% HFRI Macro Index, 4% HFRI Event Driven Index, 2% HFRI Hedge Index. Performance results for the Moderate Growth & Income Portfolio without Private Capital are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Hypothetical results do not represent actual trading and the results achieved do not represent the experience of any individual investor. In addition, hypothetical results do not reflect the impact of any fees, expenses or taxes applicable to an actual investment. The indices reflect the historical performance of the represented assets and assume the reinvestment of dividends and other distributions. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Hypothetical and past performance does not guarantee future results. Different investments offer different levels of potential return and market risk. Please see the end of the report for the descriptions of the risks associated with these asset classes and for definitions of the indices. 6

7 The quilt chart of yearly asset-class returns on page 6 shows a diversified portfolio will not generate the highest return in any given year, but it is also unlikely to drop from one of the best to one of the worst performers from one year to the next. In other words, the performance of a diversified portfolio could be smoother and steadier over time than any individual asset class. So it all boils down to this: Diversification has helped investors manage risk and return, but it did so at a potential cost. One way to calculate that cost is to look at the difference in any given year between a diversified portfolio s return and that of the year s bestperforming asset. Rather than diversifying, an investor would get better returns if he or she were able to pick the best-performing asset at the beginning of each year. But there s the rub. Even seasoned investors find it difficult, if not impossible, to pick the best performer on a consistent basis. That s a primary reason why we recommend investors diversify. A Final Case for Diversification Investors face many types of risk and uncertainty. Although the equity market historically has trended upward, investors must frequently deal with market volatility. Market timing rarely works, and we do not suggest this approach for investors. Instead, we believe a strategic and tactical asset allocation strategy,* including a diversified portfolio and regular rebalancing, offers the optimal approach for investors over the long term. Performance measurement is also fundamental in determining a specific investment strategy s effectiveness. Moreover, it is equally important to consider portfolio performance over the long term and not for a matter of weeks or months. Benchmarks are essential tools used to measure performance, but they must be selected carefully and match an investor s risk profile. Help maximize the performance of your portfolio. Talk to your Financial Professional to help ensure your investments are aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. * Tactical asset allocation: Making short-term adjustments to asset-class weights based on shorter-term expected relative performance. Strategic asset allocation: An investor s return objectives, risk tolerances, and investment constraints are integrated with long-term return assumptions to establish exposure to permissible asset classes. Using Diversification to Help Manage Risk and Return 7

8 About the Authors Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy Ms. McMillion leads the development of global investment strategy. She oversees the creation of asset allocation recommendations and writes economic and market commentary and analysis. Prior to her current role, she served as an asset allocation strategist and a senior investment research analyst for Wells Fargo and predecessor firms. Ms. McMillion earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and a Master of Business Administration from the College of William and Mary in Virginia. She is a CFA charterholder. Ms. McMillion is located in Winston- Salem, North Carolina. Chris Haverland, CFA Global Asset Allocation Strategist Mr. Haverland is responsible for thought leadership on the economy, financial markets, investment strategy, and asset allocation. Prior to joining Wells Fargo, Mr. Haverland was a portfolio manager, corporate bond analyst and trader at Jefferson Pilot Financial (now part of Lincoln Financial) in Greensboro, North Carolina, where he managed $2.6 billion in fixed income assets. He has 20 years of experience in financial services. Mr. Haverland earned a Masters of Business Administration from Elon University and a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from Appalachian State University. He is a CFA charterholder and is a member of the CFA North Carolina Society. Mr. Haverland is located in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Sameer Samana, CFA Global and Technical Strategist Mr. Samana produces investment advice with a primary focus on tactical asset allocation and client performance. Prior to his current position, he served in a variety of roles, including senior international strategist, portfolio manager for the equity portion of Compass ETF portfolios, and fixed-income trader. He has more than 15 years of experience in financial services. He earned a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance from Rhodes College and is a CFA charterholder. Mr. Samana is located in St. Louis, Missouri. 8

9 Asset Class Risk Disclosures Asset allocation and diversification are investment methods used to help manage risk. They do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. All investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Investments fluctuate with changes in market and economic conditions and in different environments due to numerous factors some of which may be unpredictable. Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The risks associated with the representative index asset classes shown in this report include: Alternative Investments: Alternative investments trade in diverse complex strategies that are affected in different ways and at different times by changing market conditions. Strategies may, at times, be out of market favor for considerable periods with adverse consequences for the investor. : The commodities markets are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility. may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or other factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Securities: Stocks are subject to market risk which means their value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. The prices of small/mid-company stocks are generally more volatile than large company stocks. They often involve higher risks because of smaller and mid-sized companies may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions. ome: Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to market, interest rate, credit/default, liquidity, inflation, and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond s price. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. High yield fixed income securities are considered speculative, involve greater risk of default, and tend to be more volatile than investment grade fixed income securities. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity. U.S. government securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government as to payment of principal and interest if held to maturity. Although free from credit risk, they are subject to interest rate risk. Foreign/Emerging Markets: Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. : Investing in real estate investment trusts (REITs) have special risks, including possible illiquidity of the underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations, and the impact of varied economic conditions. Index Definitions An index is unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is composed of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Government/Credit Index and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Index and includes Treasury issues, agency issues, corporate bond issues, and mortgage-backed securities. Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index provides a broad-based measure of the global investment grade fixed-rate debt markets. It is comprised of the U.S. Aggregate, Pan-European Aggregate, and the Asian-Pacific Aggregate Indexes. It also includes a wide range of standard and customized subindices by liquidity constraint, sector, quality and maturity. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond Index covers the U.S. dollar-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB= or below. Included issues must have at least one year until final maturity. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bills (1-3M) Index is representative of money markets. Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index composed of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities and represents 20 commodities weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unweighted index of 30 blue chip industrial U.S. stocks. FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index is designed to track the performance of listed real-estate companies and REITs in developed countries worldwide. HFRI Relative Value Index maintains positions in which the investment thesis is predicated on realization of a valuation discrepancy in the relationship between multiple securities. Managers employ a variety of fundamental and quantitative techniques to establish investment theses, and security types range broadly across equity, fixed income, derivative, or other security types. Fixed income strategies are typically quantitatively driven to measure the existing relationship between instruments and, in some cases, identify attractive positions in which the risk adjusted spread between these instruments represents an attractive opportunity for the investment manager. RV position may be involved in corporate transactions also, but as opposed to ED exposures, the investment thesis is predicated on realization of a pricing discrepancy between related securities, as opposed to the outcome of the corporate transaction. HFRI Macro Index: Investment Managers who trade a broad range of strategies in which the investment process is predicated on movements in underlying economic variables and the impact these have on equity, fixed income, hard currency, and commodity markets. Managers employ a variety of techniques, both discretionary and systematic analysis, combinations of top down and bottom up theses, quantitative and fundamental approaches, and long and short term holding periods. Although some strategies employ RV techniques, Macro strategies are distinct from RV strategies in that the primary investment thesis is predicated on predicted or future movements in the underlying instruments, rather than realization of a valuation discrepancy between securities. In a similar way, while both Macro and equity hedge managers may hold equity securities, the overriding investment thesis is predicated on the impact movements in underlying macroeconomic variables may have on security prices, as opposed to EH, in which the fundamental characteristics on the company are the most significant and are integral to investment thesis. HFRI Event Driven Index: Investment Managers who maintain positions in companies currently or prospectively involved in corporate transactions of a wide variety including but not limited to mergers, restructurings, financial distress, tender offers, shareholder buybacks, debt exchanges, security issuance, or other capital structure adjustments. Security types can range from most senior in the capital structure to most junior or subordinated, and frequently involve additional derivative securities. Event Driven exposure includes a combination of sensitivities to equity markets, credit markets, and idiosyncratic, company specific developments. Investment theses are typically predicated on fundamental characteristics (as opposed to quantitative), with the realization of the thesis predicated on a specific development exogenous to the existing capital structure. HFRI Hedge Index: Investment Managers who maintain positions both long and short in primarily equity and equity derivative securities. A wide variety of investment processes can be employed to arrive at an investment decision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategies can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and can range broadly in terms of levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holding period, concentrations of market capitalizations, and valuation ranges of typical portfolios. EH managers would typically maintain at least 50% exposure to, and may in some cases be entirely invested in, equities, both long and short. The HFRI Hedge Index is a composite of the hedge funds that employ the alternative strategies and who report their performance figure to HFRI. The number of hedge funds reporting may vary between each reporting period. Using Diversification to Help Manage Risk and Return 9

10 JP Morgan Global Ex United States Index (JPM GBI Global Ex U.S.) is a total return, market capitalization weighted index, rebalanced monthly, consisting of the following countries: Australia, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Denmark, Netherlands, and France. JPM EMBI Global Index is a U.S. dollar-denominated, investible, market cap-weighted index representing a broad universe of emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt. While products in the asset class have become more diverse, focusing on both local currency and corporate issuance, there is currently no widely accepted aggregate index reflecting the broader opportunity set available, although the asset class is evolving. By using the same index provider as the one used in the developed-market bonds asset class, there is consistent categorization of countries among developed international bonds (ex. U.S.) and emerging market bonds. MSCI All Country World ex U.S. Index (MSCI AC World Ex U.S.) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets, excluding the U.S. The index consists of 45 country indices comprising 22 developed and 23 emerging market country indices. The developed market country indices included are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The emerging market country indices included are: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index (MSCI EAFE NR) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The index consists of the following 21 developed-market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EM NR) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. Russell 2000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Russell 2000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. Russell Midcap Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell Midcap companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The stocks are also members of the Russell 1000 Growth index. Russell Midcap Value Index measures the performance of those Russell Midcap companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The stocks are also members of the Russell 1000 Value index. S&P 500 Index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. It is a market-value-weighted index with each stock s weight in the index proportionate to its market value. Note: HFRI Indices have limitations (some of which are typical of other widely used indices). These limitations include survivorship bias (the returns of the indices may not be representative of all the hedge funds in the universe because of the tendency of lower performing funds to leave the index); heterogeneity (not all hedge funds are alike or comparable to one another, and the index may not accurately reflect the performance of a described style); and limited data (many hedge funds do not report to indices, and, therefore, the index may omit funds, the inclusion of which might significantly affect the performance shown). The HFRI Indices are based on information self-reported by hedge fund managers that decide on their own, at any time, whether or not they want to provide, or continue to provide, information to HFR Asset Management, L.L.C. Results for funds that go out of business are included in the index until the date that they cease operations. Therefore, these indices may not be complete or accurate representations of the hedge fund universe, and may be biased in several ways. Returns of the underlying hedge funds are net of fees and are denominated in USD. 10

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12 Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII) is a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. The information in this report was prepared by the Global Investment Strategy (GIS) division of WFII. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions, or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved [95893A-v3BDC] IHA (Rev 05, 1 ea)