Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss
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- Mervyn Griffin
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2 Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the challenges facing investors in an environment of high political risk, with many markets on high valuations the differing approaches to seeking alpha in such an environment how a long/short investment strategy can use options to mitigate drawdown
3 The nature of the beast Political risk in an expensive global equity market GeoQuant US Political Risk Score Index* MSCI World, long-term price earnings** Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jan Jan-11 Sep-12 May-14 Jan-16 Sep-17 *Source: GeoQuant United States Political Risk Score Index (NSA, % Balance/Diffusion Index), Bloomberg, as at **Source: MSCI World Index, Long Term Price Earnings Ratio, Bloomberg, as at
4 But not all markets are created equal Long-term European valuations are cheap relative to the US Long-term price earnings ratio (MSCI EUROPE/S&P 500 INDEX) Mar-98 May-00 Jul-02 Sep-04 Nov-06 Jan-09 Mar-11 May-13 Jul-15 Sep-17 Source: Ratio of MSCI Europe to S&P 500 long-term price earnings ratio, Bloomberg, as at
5 Europe is firing on all cylinders Eurozone GDP Growth (%) Mar-96 Nov-98 Jul-01 Mar-04 Nov-06 Jul-09 Mar-12 Nov-14 Jul-17 Source: Euro Area Gross Domestic Product Chained 2010 Prices YoY, SWDA YoY % growth, Bloomberg, as at
6 An unrealistic balancing act? Or is it possible with alpha from the long book and drawdown mitigation due to short book 30% 25% 4% 2% 0% Nov-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-13 Aug-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Cumulative Alpha* 20% 15% -2.89% 11.22% 10% 6.53% 1.89% 5% 5.84% 4.56% 0% % -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Fund EURO STOXX 50 EUR Fund performance during worst performing months of the EURO STOXX 50 Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. Source: Jupiter Asset Management, gross income reinvested, net of fees, as at All returns in EUR. Benchmark = Euribor 3 month index. *The cumulative alpha from the long portfolio has been calculated by comparing the return of the long portfolio before fees with the returns of the MSCI Europe Index multiplied by the average exposure of the long portfolio for each month. 5
7 to build a resilient portfolio 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Growth shock Jupiter Europa L EUR A Acc % EURO STOXX % Tapering Fears over US rates The prolonged Greek crisis ECB QE convinces Renminbi devaluation Growth shock Disillusionment on European QE ECB QE2 disappoints Brexit Trump French election Index-like returns with low net exposure -15% Dec-14 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Strong performance A history of participating in up-markets and mitigating drawdowns A well-defined, flexible investment process Seeking to generate outperformance using a range of strategies and instruments across a variety of market conditions Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Source: Morningstar, gross income reinvested, net of fees, in EUR, from to Benchmark = Euribor 3 month index. 6
8 How do we seek to do this? A pan-european equity long short fund: that combines a fundamental approach to stock selection while seeking to prevent capital losses during weak market conditions through the use of option strategies that has been producing annualised returns of 7.5% per annum Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. Source: Morningstar/FE, Jupiter Asset Management as at Note: Returns and risks based on the Jupiter Europa Fund L EUR A Acc share class over 5 years from to Gross income reinvested, net of fees in EUR. The Sharpe Ratio is calculated by dividing the fund s annualised excess returns over the risk free rate by its annualised standard deviation. Risk free rate used is 0%. 7
9 The team Potential edges from specific skills & experience Years of experience, as at
10 Edge 1 in theory Combining fundamentals with strategic value Fundamental-only funds Tend to dismiss strategic value as speculation rather than investment May miss out on opportunities Limit upside potential Reluctant to challenge management or work with other shareholders Access full value of investment Strategic value Fundamental value Putting fundamentals first allows you to patiently hold until strategic value is crystallised Event-only hedge funds Specifically not long-term investors Scarcity of events can lead to turning a blind eye to fundamental flaws Mandate problems Short holding periods Requires perfect timing Large downside risk Exposure to profit warnings The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. 9
11 Edge 1 in practice Actelion more than 1/3 of return since mid-2011 was strategic value Actelion share price (CHF) Returns before/after acquisition process Elliott activism 2. Management contact 3. Lifecycle 4. CHF revaluation 5. Biotech rotation 6. Chairman contact 7. Results 8. J&J bid interest 9. Sanofi bid interest 10. Apparent setback 11. Spin-off Additional strategic value relative to mid-2011 crystalised post Nov 2016 (209%) PRICE RETURN OF 583% Fundamental returns realised between mid and end-nov 2016 (373%) Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. Any stock examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. Source: Bloomberg,
12 Many examples 500 Worldpay 140 Com Hem Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jan Syngenta Nov-00 Mar-05 Jun-09 Sep-13 Dec Jun-14 Aug-15 Oct-16 Dec Cable & Wireless Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Company example is for illustrative purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: Bloomberg, as at
13 Edge 2 why and how Drawdown mitigation through net long options strategies The why & how of drawdown mitigation Why seek drawdown mitigation? Drawdowns actual or anticipated can encourage poor investor behaviour Capitulation at the trough Reticence near the top Investment at peak Helped us capture only 23%* of negative market moves Process 1. Always have some put option position in place 2. Identify upcoming market events 3. Consult economists, strategists, and quant analysts 4. Scenario analysis to assess potential outcomes 5. Structure options in context of market conditions 6. Assess response (restrike, add, reduce, adjust Greeks) 7. Take rebalancing action determined in #6 Perfect example** 4% -2% Fund EURO STOXX 50 Index % -14% 30-Sep Oct Oct Oct-14 Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. *Source: Morningstar/Jupiter Asset Management, gross income reinvested. Net of fees in Euros. 5 years to **Based on the Jupiter Europa Fund L EUR A Acc share class. Source: FE, gross income reinvested, in EUR, from to Benchmark = Euribor 3 month index. 12
14 Edge 2 why could it be achieved? Actively managing options portfolio Naïve Out-of-the money options used as blunt instrument to reduce premium paid Long-dated options used with high premium paid justified as budgeted insurance cost No attempt to respond to market moves to manage volatility, time decay, etc. In response to well-known discrete events Sophisticated Combination of ATM and OTM used to optimise premium paid Short-dated options, regularly restruck in response to conditions Cost of strategy considered in terms of daily time decay rather than premium at outset Time decay of long put option positions on the index offset with positive theta from writing options on single-stock names Flexibility to switch between stocks and options as required Actively managing the Greeks at a portfolio level Theoretical illustrations Naive, passive options strategy Put option, strike 100, premium 5 Underlying Day 1 Day 3 Day 5 Day 7 Day 9 Day 11 Day 13 Day 15 Day 17 Day 19 Day 21 Day 23 Day 25 Day 27 Day 29 Day 31 Sophisticated, active options strategy (but takes skill, attention, and time) Portfolio of options, frequently rebalanced Underlying Day 1 Day 3 Day 5 Day 7 Day 9 Day 11 Day 13 Day 15 Day 17 Day 19 Day 21 Day 23 Day 25 Day 27 Day 29 Day 31 The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Based on theoretical situation where market rises from 85 to 102 and options are rebalanced three times with strikes at 95, 105, and 114 used purely to create simplified illustration of general principle. 13
15 An alternative risk-return profile Limited drawdowns and volatility Jupiter Europa SICAV Growth 80% 60% 40% 20% Jupiter Europa L EUR A Acc 46.9% Jupiter Europa L EUR B Acc 41.8% HFRX Equity Hedge EUR 4.3% EURO STOXX 50 EUR 59.4% Euribor 3m 2.6% European debt crisis Fears of end of QE in US Global growth fear Greece default worries Renminbi devaluation 0% -20% Ukraine Crises ECB QE disappoints Renewed Eurozone -40% fears Jan- 10 Sep- 10 Jun- 11 Mar- 12 Nov- 12 Aug- 13 May- 14 Feb- 15 Oct- 15 Jul- 16 Apr- 17 Dec- 17 Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. Source: Lipper, gross income reinvested, net of fees, in EUR, to *Launch date: Fund benchmark = Euribor 3m Index. 14
16 12 month rolling performance Jupiter Europa (%) 01 Jan '13 to 31 Dec '13 01 Jan '14 to 31 Dec '14 01 Jan '15 to 31 Dec '15 01 Jan '16 to 31 Dec '16 01 Jan '17 to 31 Dec '17 Jupiter Europa L EUR B Acc Euribor 3 Month EUR Past performance is no indication of current or future performance, doesn t take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. Source: Morningstar, gross income reinvested, net of fees, in EUR, to Since inception: Fund Manager inception:
17 Learning outcomes Investors should have gained an ability to discuss the challenges facing investors in an environment of high political risk, with many markets on high valuations the differing approaches to seeking alpha in such an environment how a long/short investment strategy can use options to mitigate drawdown
18 Jupiter Europa risks The fund manager can use derivatives for investment purposes. The fund can take short positions which creates the opportunity for a fund to deliver positive returns in falling markets, but also means that a fund could deliver negative returns in rising markets. Losses on short positions may be unlimited. Counterparty risk may cause losses to the fund. A 15% performance fee applies. The KIID and Prospectus are available from Jupiter on request. This fund can invest more than 35% of its value in securities issued or guaranteed by an EEA state. 17
19 Disclosure This presentation is intended for investment professionals and not for the benefit of retail investors. Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. Initial charges are likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term. Any data or views given should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance. Performance data does not take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Quoted yields are not guaranteed and may change in the future. Awards and ratings should not be taken as a recommendation. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given. It is not an invitation to subscribe for shares in the Jupiter Global Fund (the Company) or any other fund managed by Jupiter Asset Management Limited. The Company is a UCITS fund incorporated as a Société Anonyme in Luxembourg and organised as a Société d Investissement à Capital Variable (SICAV). This information is only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the Company and its shares are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. The sub fund may be subject to various other risk factors, please refer to the Prospectus for further information. Prospective purchasers of shares of the sub fund(s) of the Company should inform themselves as to the legal requirements, exchange control regulations and applicable taxes in the countries of their respective citizenship, residence or domicile. Subscriptions can only be made on the basis of the current prospectus and the KIID, accompanied by the most recent audited annual report and semi-annual report. These documents are available for download from The KIID and, where required, the Prospectus, along with other advertising materials which have been approved for public distribution in accordance with the local regulations are available in English, Dutch, French, Finnish, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish. Before subscribing, please read the Prospectus. Hard copies may be obtained free of charge upon request from any of: The Company Custodian and Administrator: JP Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A, 6 Route de Trèves, Senningerberg, L-2633, Luxembourg; and from certain of the Company s distributors; Austria: Jupiter Asset Management Limited, Austria branch, Goldenes Quartier, Tuchlauben 7a, 1010 Vienna, Austria; Belgium: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Boulevard Louis Schmidt 2, 1040 Brussels; France: CACEIS Bank France, 1/3 Place Valhubert, Paris, France; Germany: Jupiter Asset Management Limited, Frankfurt branch, whose registered office is at: Roßmarkt 10, Frankfurt, Germany; Italy: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan branch, Piazza Lina Bo Bardi, Milano, Italy. Allfunds Bank S.A.U. Milan Branch, Via Bocchetto 6, Milano, Italy. The Fund has been registered with the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) for the offer in Italy to retail investors; Spain: Allfunds Bank, C/ La Estafeta 6, Edificio 3, Alcobendas, Madrid, Spain. For the purposes of distribution in Spain, the Company is registered with the Spanish Securities Markets Commission Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores ( CNMV ) under registration number 1253, where complete information, including a copy of the marketing memorandum, is available from the Company authorised distributors. Subscriptions should be made through a locally authorised distributor. The net asset value is available on Sweden: Jupiter Asset Management Limited, Nordic branch, 4th Floor, Strandvagen 7A, Stockholm, Sweden; Switzerland: Copies of the Memorandum and Articles of Association, the Prospectus, KIIDs and the annual and semi-annual reports of the Company may be obtained free of charge from the Company s representative and paying agent in Switzerland, BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, Succursale de Zurich, whose registered office is at Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland; United Kingdom: Jupiter Asset Management Limited (the Investment Manager), registered address: The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ, United Kingdom. Issued by The Jupiter Global Fund and, in some instances, Jupiter Asset Management Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of the Company or Jupiter Asset Management Limited. 18
20 Indices disclosure Industry Classification Benchmark ( ICB ) is a product of FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) and all intellectual property rights in and to ICB vest in FTSE. Jupiter Asset Management Limited has been licensed by FTSE to use ICB. FTSE is a trade mark owned by the London Stock Exchange Plc and is used by FTSE under licence. FTSE and its licensors do not accept liability to any person for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in ICB. This document contains information based on the MSCI Europe Index. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI s express written consent. 19
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