Low- Vola(lity Inves(ng For Re(rement

Transcription

1 MODERATOR Low- Vola(lity Inves(ng For Re(rement Robert Laura President SYNERGOS Financial Group PANELISTS Frank Barbera Execu8ve Vice President Sierra Investment Management Dan Thibeault CIO, CEO GL Capital Partners Michael Winchell CIO Larkin Point Investment Advisors LLC

2 Broad Diversification During the course of a market cycle, each of the Sierra funds moves tactically among a wide variety of asset classes:» U.S. & Global Equities*» Commodity Funds*» REITs» REIT Preferreds» Preferred Equities» Master Limited Partnerships» Emerging Market Debt» Global Bonds; Hedged Currency» Global Bonds; Unhedged Dollar» Convertible Bonds» Risk Arbitrage Funds» Treasury and Agency Bonds» High Yield Corporate Bonds» High Grade Corporate Bonds» Municipal Bonds» Floating Rate Funds» TIPs Inflation Protected Securities» Low Duration Bonds» Inverse Rising Rate Funds» Internally-Diversified Funds» Tactically-Managed Funds» Misc. Low-Volatility Funds * Not usually included in the Sierra Strategic Income Fund Invest For investment professional use only. Not for use with the public.

3 Wide Variance within Junk Universe A Variety of Junk Funds - Last 3 Years IVY % Legg Mason % Invesco % Calamos % Madison % HYG ETF +3.60% 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Invest wisely For investment professional use only. Not for use with the public.

4 Well-Proven Sell Discipline Sierra Applies a Trailing Stop to Each Holding, to Help Mitigate Downside Risk of The Overall Portfolio $ Sel l Buy Northeast Investors Trust (red) Moving Average (blue) Sierra s stops are proportionate to the historical volatility of each asset class, and are applied separately to each fund within that asset class

5 $140- $130- $120- Well-Proven Sell Discipline Sierra Applies a Trailing Stop to Each Holding, to Help Mitigate Downside Risk of The Overall Portfolio Sierra implements a proprietary sell discipline for each asset class to help limit downside exposure Sierra s Tactical Approach $110- Buy-and-hold Approach -110 $ $ Hypothetical example representing a High Yield Corporate Bond Fund ( ). Invest wisely For investment professional use only. Not for use with the public.

6 Specific Goals Managing downside risk across market cycles while seeking satisfying returns across market cycles $150- $125- Average Annualized Return Sierra Core Retirement Fund +6.93% (Class R, SIRRX) $100- $75- Benchmark +4.16% Chart update thru December 2013 ** Benchmark is the average of the mutual funds in Morningstar s Conservative Allocation category. Conservative-allocation portfolios seek to provide both capital appreciation and income by investing in three major areas: stocks, bonds, and cash. These portfolios tend to hold smaller positions in stocks than moderate-allocation portfolios. Although Morningstar has recently moved the Core Fund to its Multisector Bond category, Sierra considers Morningstar s Conservative Allocation category a better benchmark, since Sierra uses a wide variety of non-bond asset classes from time to time and shares a low-volatility goal with that category. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION Invest wisely For investment professional use only. Not for use with the public.

7 MODERATOR Low- Vola(lity Inves(ng For Re(rement Robert Laura President SYNERGOS Financial Group PANELISTS Frank Barbera Execu8ve Vice President Sierra Investment Management Dan Thibeault CIO, CEO GL Capital Partners Michael Winchell CIO Larkin Point Investment Advisors LLC

8 Presenta(on slides for Dan Thibeault, CIO GL Capital Partners

9 Topical Focus Low- Vola(lity Inves(ng: Isn t this essendally low risk invesdng? Why dedicate a panel to something so obvious? Today s need to reassess risk and redefine asset classes Vola(lity profiles of bond and equity markets Op(ons for Financial Advisors

10 Vola-lity VIX Index

11 Vola-lity VVIX Index Vola-lity on Vola-lity

12 Vola-lity Concerns Rising Vola(lity S&P 500 Days with 2% Price Swing 99 Da ys 103 Da ys 181 Da ys 224 Da ys Source: ishares

13 Percent (%) US Bond Bull Market 10yr Treasury Rate ( ) 42% of Bond Returns Derived from Principal Price Apprecia(on Market Tailwind

14 Historical Perspec-ve Bonds are much more risky than these strategic portfolio allocations from Wealth managers have people think. They re riskier for one because we re going to enter a bond bear market, but two because of the inflation bias shown on the next slide. Percent (%) US Treasury Interest Rates ( ) Dis-nct Bond Cycles

15 Historical Infla(on in the United States Historical Perspec-ve

16 Historical Perspec-ve Percent (%) 12 US Equity Real Returns ( ) Siegel Equity Constant 6.6%

17 Leaves Investors with Three Op(ons: 1.Invest in short- term fixed income products only 2.Invest in income- genera(ng products with minimal interest rate risk (variable debt, high yielding equi8es) 3.Invest while hedging interest rate risk factor

18 Foreign Investors Showing Hand Total Treasury Less than 5 years 5 to 10 years Over 10 years Trillions ($) % Breakdown 100% 73% 22% 5%

19 Separa-ng Bond Risk Factors Municipal Bond Spreads (Actual, 4/6/2014)) Municipals offering yield pick-up over Treasuries 19 year maturities offer optimal risk spreads Your Bond Terms Optimal Term 2% Municipal Bond CEF Discounts to NAV 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% - 8% - 10% - 12% - 14% Closed-end funds at discounts not seen since credit crisis Fund discounts provide opportunity for superior riskadjusted returns

20 April 24, 2014 Curve Analysis

21 Advancing Bond PorNolio Management % Standard Bond Fund Structured Bond SMA AA- A % Tax Equivalent Yield* Average Credit Ra(ng Average Bond Dura(on* Targeting Term & Vehicle Selection Lead to 300% Yield Improvement * Figures include impact of porxolio interest rate hedge (lower yield & dura8on)

22 Thank you

23 MODERATOR Low- Vola(lity Inves(ng For Re(rement Robert Laura President SYNERGOS Financial Group PANELISTS Frank Barbera Execu8ve Vice President Sierra Investment Management Dan Thibeault CIO, CEO GL Capital Partners Michael Winchell CIO Larkin Point Investment Advisors LLC

24 Defining Cash as an Opportunity Asset

25 Growth Assets in Financial Plans Reducing longevity risk o\en requires alloca8ons to growth assets such as: Developed market equi8es and high yield bonds; Emerging market equi8es and bonds. Total Returns $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 S&P 500 Total Return Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index Dec-12 Dec-10 Dec-08 Dec-06 Barclays Global EM Sovereign Debt (USD) $0.00 Dec-04 Periodic economic contrac8ons and financial leverage can cause temporary and severe price declines in growth assets (with high posi8ve correla8on).

26 Impact of Drawdowns Financial plans typically do not present drawdowns or severe price declines: Cannot predict date of drawdown; Plans are path dependent. Drawdowns reduce confidence and create fear of plan failure. Clients will not want to re- balance (sell income assets to buy growth assets).

27 Change Fear to Opportunity Plan to generate cash in early years. Ask clients to iden8fy sources of cash to buy growth assets cheaply. Begin a dialogue of opportunity rather than fear. Market sell- offs become the expected buying opportunity rather than the feared belt- 8ghtening.

28 Build Cash and Generate Crisis Cash Change lifestyle now to build cash. Expect to rebalance gains from growth assets into cash war chest. Treat cash as a call op8on client uses to buy cheap assets. Embrace put op8ons for protec8on to generate cash in a market crisis.