CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly

Transcription

1 I N S T I T U T I O N A L E Q U I T Y R E S E A R C H Jon Morrison 1 (403) Jon.Morrison@cibc.com John Gibson 1 (403) John.Gibson@cibc.com Dan Forget 1 (403) Dan.Forget@cibc.com Adam Gill, CFA 1 (403) Adam.Gill@cibc.com Serhiy Petrenko 1 (403) Serhiy.Petrenko@cibc.com Gordon Law, CA 1 (403) Gordon.Law@cibc.com Arthur Grayfer, CFA 1 (403) Arthur.Grayfer@cibc.com Scott Reid, CFA 1 (403) Scott.Reid@cibc.com Mark Zalucky 1 (403) Mark.Zalucky@cibc.com Dave Popowich 1 (403) Dave.Popowich@cibc.com Shahzaib Merwat 1 (403) Shahzaib.Merwat@cibc.com Energy CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly HHUB Natural Gas And Brent Monthly Oil Contracts To Expire And Roll This Week I N D U S T R Y U P D A T E March 28, 2016 Oil & Gas - Dividend Corporations Sector Weighting: N ONE Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers Sector Weighting: N ONE Oil & Gas - International E&P Sector Weighting: N ONE Oil & Gas - Large Cap Sector Weighting: N ONE Oilfield Services & Equipment Sector Weighting: N ONE What's Changed This is expected to be a fairly quiet week for Canadian company-specific energy news flow with Q4/15 earnings and year-end reserve reporting officially wrapped up. With that said, look for the Henry Hub monthly natural gas contract and the Brent monthly oil contract to expire and roll on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Equity performance for Canadian energy stocks was soft this past week while the U.S. energy ETF market realized another inflow to the tune of ~$US290 million. Overall, the Oilfield Services sub-sector was the weakest relative performer this week with stocks off an average of ~1,100 bps, followed by Integrated names falling ~390 bps, Junior E&Ps down ~330 bps, DivCo E&Ps sliding ~320 bps W/W, Large Cap E&Ps decreasing ~310 bps, while International E&Ps increased ~610 bps W/W. All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated CIBC World Markets Corp., the U.S. broker-dealer, and CIBC World Markets Inc., the Canadian broker-dealer (collectively, CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.) do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 25. Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com CIBC World Markets Corp., 425 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY (212)

2 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 2 Exhibit 1. North American Energy Equity Indices TSX vs. S&P 500 TSX vs. TSX Capped Energy S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Energy TSX Composite S&P TSX Composite TSX Capped Energy S&P 500 S&P 500 Energy Energy Indices - Canada TSX E&P TR TSX Integrated TR TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR TSX Drillers TR Energy Indices - U.S S&P 500 E&P S&P 500 Integrated S&P 500 Equipment & Services S&P 500 Drillers Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

3 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 US$/Bbl Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 US$/Bbl US$/MMBtu Exhibit 2. Commodities and ETF's Funds Flow WTI vs Brent $130 $120 WTI Brent $110 $100 $90 $80 Henry Hub vs AECO $6.50 Henry Hub $5.50 $4.50 AECO $15+ $70 $3.50 $60 $50 $2.50 $40 $30 $1.50 $20 $0.50 Natural Gas Liquids Funds Flow by Sector for US Equity ETFs for the Week Ending March 24, 2016 $140 Alberta Condensate Texas Condensate Financial -$84 $120 Alberta Propane Texas Propane Energy $292 $100 $80 Materials Technology Thematic -$218 $263 $551 $60 Communications Sector $35 $40 Real Estate Consumer Discretionary -$244 $593 $20 Consumer Staples $207 $0 -$20 Utilities Industrials Health Care -$171 $317 $361 Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc US$ (Millions) 3

4 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 4 Exhibit 3. CIBC Energy Indices TSX E&P vs. Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index TSX E&P TR Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index TSX E&P vs. Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index 1.90 TSX E&P TR Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index TSX E&P vs. CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TSX E&P TR CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TR Index TSX E&P vs. CIBC Integrated E&Ps TSX E&P TR CIBC Integrated E&Ps TR Index Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

5 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Exhibit 4. CIBC Energy Indices TSX E&P vs. CIBC Royalty Corps TSX E&P TR CIBC Royalty Corps TR Index TSX E&P vs. International E&Ps TSX E&P TR CIBC International E&Ps TR Index TSX O&G-Equipment & Services, -Drillers vs. CIBC Oilfield Services STENRE Index vs. OSX Index vs. Oilfield Services Cos TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR TSX Drillers TR CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage STENRE Index OSX Index CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc. 5

6 6 Exhibit 5. Calendar North American Oil & Gas Economic Calendar March 2016 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Legend Q4 Earnings Q4 Earnings: Reserves Q4 Earnings: Q4 Earnings: Reserves Q4 Earnings: GTE SES Data: PPY CNQ Data: TOG PSK PPY BNK BDI TOG Earnings Release AAV CO CR BNK PM T FRC PM T TDG FRU Ticker Ticker Ticker Before Market Open After Market Close TBD Q4 Earnings: SVY TOU RRX Reserves Data: NVA Q4 Earnings: ESI KEL NVA PXT Reserves Data: VII LRE Land Sale: AB Q4 Earnings: VII TGL LRE Q4 Earnings: SPE BNK SPE TOT Q4 Earnings: Q4 Earnings: Q4 Earnings: JOY CQE PNE Reserves Data: CQE Reserves Data: CJ RM P Q4 Earnings: CJ BXE BIR RM P Futures Contract Expiries CL CO NG WCS WTI 1-Month Brent 1-Month HH 1-Month WCS 1-Month Canadian Crown Land Sales AB, BC, MB, SK Holiday/Market Closed WCS Q4 Earnings: Reserves Q4 Earnings: GXO Data: TVE TVE Land Sale: AB CL BC Good Friday Canadian Holiday US Holiday April Su M Tu W Th F Sa NG CO May Su M Tu W Th F Sa Note: All times in Mountain Time (MT). Excludes equities not under CIBC s Oil & Gas coverage universe. Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

7 Rating Exhibit 6. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Integrated, Large Cap, Dividend-Paying and Junior E&P s Company Ticker Price Analyst Price Target 1 Target/ Price Returns % 52-Week Short Short Div. Yield Total D/D W/W M/M 3-Mo YTD 1-Year 1-Year Chart High Low Mkt. Cap. ($MM) Net Debt ($MM) EV ($MM) Interest (MM) Interest Ratio % of Float M/M Y/Y Integrated Cenovus Energy CVE $16.89 Grayfer $19.00 SP 12.5% 1.2% 13.7% 0.7% -5.0% 18.6% -6.2% -3.4% -18.7% $24.28 $12.74 $14,074 $2,420 $16, % -17.1% 76.0% Husky Energy HSE $15.73 Grayfer $16.00 SP 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% -4.4% 16.7% 6.0% 9.6% -36.6% $28.06 $11.34 $15,480 $6,591 $22, % -25.1% -51.8% Imperial Oil IMO $43.74 Grayfer $55.00 SO 25.7% 1.3% 27.0% 1.1% -4.2% 2.8% -3.5% -2.8% -12.5% $55.37 $37.25 $37,074 $5,518 $42, % -22.5% 29.4% Suncor Energy SU $35.86 Grayfer $41.00 SO 14.3% 3.2% 17.6% 0.7% -2.0% 8.3% -2.9% 1.2% 2.3% $40.93 $27.32 $51,834 $15,782 $67, % -16.4% 42.3% Average 13.6% 1.4% 15.0% 1.0% -3.9% 11.6% -1.6% 1.2% -16.4% % -20.3% 23.9% Large Cap Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $35.22 Grayfer $40.00 SO 13.6% 2.6% 16.2% 1.2% -3.5% 32.3% 13.8% 17.2% -5.8% $42.46 $21.27 $38,554 $17,777 $56, % -7.1% 61.1% Encana ECA (US) $5.94 Grayfer $4.25 SU -28.5% 1.0% -27.4% 2.2% -3.9% 58.6% 18.0% 16.8% -46.0% $14.73 $3.00 $5,048 $4,639 $9, % 73.1% 154.6% Tourmaline Oil TOU $27.61 Grayfer R R R R R 1.5% -2.0% 11.1% 24.2% 23.6% -29.0% $43.75 $20.83 R R R % 48.8% 48.2% Average -7.4% 1.8% -5.6% 1.6% -3.1% 34.0% 18.6% 19.2% -27.0% % 38.3% 88.0% Dividend-Paying Cardinal Energy CJ $8.70 Gill $13.00 SO 49% 4.8% 54% -0.1% -8.0% 33.2% -2.0% 0.8% -37.4% $16.84 $5.59 $567 $71 $ % 14% 238.8% Freehold Royalties FRU $10.99 Grayfer $13.50 SP 23% 4.4% 27% 3.3% 1.6% 8.5% -1.3% 2.6% -34.4% $19.04 $8.29 $1,084 $149 $1, % -1% 240.6% Granite Oil GXO $6.96 Gill $8.50 SO 22% 6.0% 28% 2.3% -5.5% 0.0% -10.1% -12.7% 3.1% $9.39 $4.06 $211 $42 $ % 0% 37.7% PrairieSky Royalty PSK $25.06 Grayfer $27.50 SO 10% 2.9% 13% 1.5% -0.7% 21.3% 10.8% 15.3% -11.5% $34.67 $17.15 $5,719 -$210 $5, % 74% nm TORC Oil & Gas TOG $7.42 Gill $6.50 SO -12% 3.2% -9% 1.9% -3.3% 21.1% 37.5% 45.4% -18.7% $11.57 $3.71 $1,196 $286 $1, % 29% 254.2% Peer Group Average 18% 4.3% 23% 1.8% -3.2% 16.8% 7.0% 10.3% -19.8% % 23% 193% E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 20% 4.7% 24% 1.4% -5.6% 18.1% 8.5% 11.2% -17.7% % 14% 177% Royalty Group Average 4 16% 3.6% 20% 2.4% 0.4% 14.9% 4.8% 8.9% -22.9% % 36% 241% Junior Advantage Oil & Gas AAV $6.80 Popowich $9.50 SO 40% -- 40% -0.3% -6.8% -1.0% -0.7% -3.1% 2.4% $8.36 $5.85 $1,242 $199 $1, % 13% 47.2% Bellatrix Exploration BXE $1.28 Gill $2.25 SP 76% -- 76% -2.3% -12.9% -12.3% -22.0% -22.9% -59.9% $4.05 $1.11 $246 $723 $ % -10% -18.6% Birchcliff Energy BIR $5.31 Gill $7.00 SO 32% -- 32% 1.7% -0.9% 3.9% 30.8% 31.4% -21.2% $9.34 $2.85 $809 $632 $1, % 18% 65.7% Cequence Energy CQE $0.45 Gill $0.50 SU 12% -- 12% 6.0% 21.9% 36.9% 53.4% 48.3% -52.2% $1.07 $0.24 $94 $54 $ % nm -99.0% Crew Energy CR $3.83 Gill $5.25 SO 37% -- 37% -0.5% -5.4% 17.8% -6.3% -5.4% -23.4% $6.20 $2.65 $540 $256 $ % -21% -14.4% Journey Energy JOY $1.90 Gill $2.00 SP 5% -- 5% na -7.8% 20.3% 45.0% 36.7% -57.2% $5.86 $0.91 $83 $108 $191 na na na na na Kelt Exploration KEL $4.06 Gill $5.50 SP 35% -- 35% 2.3% -4.9% 22.0% -4.5% -4.5% -45.4% $9.95 $2.51 $685 $96 $ % 22% 205.7% Long Run Exploration LRE $0.47 Gill $0.52 SP 11% -- 11% 5.6% 3.3% 8.0% 25.3% 30.6% -33.8% $1.00 $0.12 $91 $679 $ % -81% -97.6% NuVista Energy NVA $4.91 Gill $7.00 SO 43% -- 43% 4.2% 1.0% 16.4% 19.8% 20.6% -33.1% $9.54 $2.72 $753 $204 $ % -2% -2.0% Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $4.71 Gill $5.00 SP 6% -- 6% -4.5% -2.9% 25.1% 36.8% 34.5% -23.0% $8.83 $2.72 $471 $65 $ % 6% 157.8% Paramount Resources POU $7.22 Gill $15.00 SP 108% % 2.5% -24.1% 37.2% 12.2% 18.6% -78.0% $38.08 $2.86 $767 $1,764 $2, % -32% 53.5% Perpetual Energy PMT $0.07 Gill $0.25 SP 285% % -7.1% -7.1% 44.4% 8.3% 30.0% -94.3% $1.22 $0.03 $10 $269 $ % -91% -98.6% Pine Cliff Energy PNE $0.73 Popowich $1.10 SP 51% -- 51% 1.4% -1.4% -5.2% -19.8% -21.5% -44.7% $1.65 $0.70 $223 $142 $ % -70% -99.6% Raging River Exploration RRX $9.27 Gill $11.00 SO 19% -- 19% -1.4% -2.6% -1.8% 9.7% 10.8% 7.5% $10.08 $6.50 $1,988 $104 $2, % -8% nm RMP Energy RMP $1.40 Gill $2.00 SP 43% -- 43% 0.0% -4.8% 1.4% -9.7% -8.5% -53.9% $3.80 $0.99 $173 $130 $ % 240% nm Seven Generations Energy VII $18.88 Gill $20.75 SO 10% -- 10% 1.7% -0.2% 21.8% 39.2% 40.2% 18.1% $21.23 $11.25 $4,803 $995 $5, % 34% 18.8% Spartan Energy SPE $2.75 Popowich $3.00 SO 9% -- 9% 3.0% -0.7% 10.9% 14.2% 16.1% -1.1% $3.52 $1.80 $729 $86 $ % 56% 5.3% Storm Resources SRX $3.35 Popowich $4.00 SP 19% -- 19% -0.3% -4.1% -3.5% -7.9% -8.9% -26.8% $5.05 $2.86 $400 $62 $ % 12% -38.1% Tamarack Valley TVE $3.65 Popowich $3.75 SP 3% -- 3% 3.4% -1.9% 17.7% 29.0% 22.1% -9.4% $4.80 $1.83 $419 $62 $ % nm 260.9% Average 44% 44% 0.9% -3.3% 13.7% 13.3% 13.9% -33.1% % 5% 22% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months; 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise; 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted; 4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty. 7 Commodity Price Assumptions (Strip Pricing) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E BRENT (US$/bbl) $98.84 $52.33 $39.95 $45.67 $48.45 WTI (US$/bbl) $93.03 $48.71 $39.52 $44.90 $46.83 Ed. Par (C$/bbl) $94.62 $57.29 $48.09 $54.03 $53.59 WCS Heavy (C$/bbl) $82.32 $45.21 $35.00 $39.51 $42.33 NYMEX (US$/mcf) $4.35 $2.61 $2.12 $2.74 $2.80 Natural Gas (C$/mcf) $4.47 $2.70 $1.82 $2.73 $2.86 F/X (US$/C$) $0.91 $0.78 $0.75 $0.76 $0.76 Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

8 Rating 8 Exhibit 7. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations International E&P s and Oilfield Services Co s Company Ticker Price Analyst Price Target 1 Target/ Price Returns % 52-Week 52-Week Short Short Div. Yield Total D/D W/W M/M 3-Mo YTD 1-Year 1-Year Chart High Low Mkt. Cap. ($MM) Net Debt ($MM) EV ($MM) Interest (MM) Interest Ratio % of Float M/M Y/Y International Bankers Petroleum BNK $1.84 Popowich $2.20 SP 20% -- 20% 2.2% 61.7% 109.0% 80.6% 82.4% -33.3% $3.83 $0.60 $481 -$61 $ % 3% -3.5% Canacol Energy CNE $3.36 Popowich $5.00 SO 49% -- 49% 2.1% -2.6% 6.0% 21.3% 21.3% 7.3% $3.99 $1.96 $533 $178 $ % -65% -68.9% Gran Tierra Energy GTE $3.35 Popowich $4.00 SP 19% -- 19% 0.3% -7.5% 11.3% 9.1% 11.3% -2.0% $4.80 $2.48 $990 -$101 $ % 4% -4.9% Pacific Exploration & Production PRE $0.70 Popowich $0.00 SU -100% % -1.4% -14.6% -24.7% -56.5% -59.1% -78.3% $6.38 $0.39 $221 $5,309 $5, % 47% -0.3% Parex Resources PXT $11.40 Popowich $13.50 SO 18% -- 18% 0.6% -1.0% 22.6% 15.3% 12.3% 40.0% $11.96 $7.16 $1,727 -$77 $1, % -37% 30.1% TransGlobe Energy TGL $2.19 Popowich $1.50 SU -32% 6% -25% 0.2% 0.7% 11.4% -11.8% -12.5% -47.8% $5.84 $1.45 $158 -$159 -$ % 0% 78.8% Average -4% 6% -3% 0.7% 6.1% 22.6% 9.6% 9.3% -19.0% % -8% 5% Oilfield Services Black Diamond Group BDI $4.12 Morrison $5.50 SP 33% 7.3% 33% 1.2% -9.0% 3.0% -41.2% -41.9% -65.8% $18.26 $3.82 $169 $141 $ % 30% 111.4% Calfrac Well Services CFW $1.27 Morrison $2.25 SP 77% 4.9% 77% 0.0% -24.6% 12.5% -35.9% -45.0% -85.6% $11.17 $1.06 $147 $949 $1, % -2% 27.7% Canyon Services Group FRC $3.51 Morrison R R R R R -1.4% -6.4% -12.4% -9.6% -12.5% -45.9% $9.03 $2.85 $243 R R % 74% 32.8% Enerflex EFX $9.95 Morrison $17.00 SO 71% 3.4% 71% -0.8% -7.3% -5.7% -25.7% -24.5% -32.9% $16.55 $9.56 $787 $299 $1, % -26% -47.5% Ensign Energy Services ESI $5.93 Morrison $7.50 SP 26% 8.1% 26% -2.1% -7.7% 20.0% -16.5% -18.2% -39.7% $12.50 $4.72 $903 $632 $1, % -45% -74.4% Mullen Group MTL $14.30 Morrison $15.00 SP 5% 6.7% 5% -1.2% -5.2% 3.0% 2.3% 3.2% -26.7% $23.14 $13.02 $1,311 $599 $1, % -13% 37.5% Pason Systems PSI $16.48 Morrison $15.00 SU -9% 4.1% -9% -1.4% -6.6% 0.6% -16.6% -14.1% -14.4% $23.10 $14.46 $1,381 -$166 $1, % -2% nm Precision Drilling PD $5.51 Morrison $7.50 SO 36% 0.0% 36% 0.0% -11.8% 31.7% -3.3% 1.1% -28.1% $9.43 $3.42 $1,613 $1,735 $3, % 37% 120.3% Savanna Energy Services SVY $1.36 Morrison $2.25 SO 65% 0.0% 65% 3.8% -7.5% 9.7% 9.7% 10.6% -25.7% $2.46 $0.97 $123 $244 $ % -5% -81.3% Secure Energy Services SES $8.31 Morrison $11.00 SO 32% 2.9% 32% -2.6% -7.3% 16.7% -0.2% -0.3% -46.1% $17.93 $5.33 $1,307 $92 $1, % 65% 209.9% Total Energy Services TOT $11.62 Morrison $17.00 SP 46% 2.1% 46% -2.8% -10.6% -9.2% -16.5% -14.3% -15.6% $17.46 $11.48 $360 $11 $ % -3% 186.6% Trican Well Service TCW $1.15 Morrison $1.75 SP 52% 0.0% 52% 0.9% -26.1% -17.1% 87.1% 81.2% -68.0% $5.39 $0.34 $171 $186 $ % -15% -76.6% Trinidad Drilling TDG $1.65 Morrison $2.75 SO 67% 2.4% 67% 1.2% -8.9% 9.3% -23.7% -22.6% -60.0% $5.53 $1.41 $366 $643 $1, % 21% 32.0% Western Energy Services WRG $2.81 Morrison $5.50 SO 96% 7.1% 96% -1.4% -11.0% -12.4% -20.8% -27.1% -52.0% $7.89 $2.52 $207 $206 $ % -9% 54.7% Average 46% 3.8% 46% -0.5% -10.7% 3.5% -7.9% -8.9% -43.3% % 8% 41% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

9 Exhibit 8. Comparables (Strip Pricing) Integrated, Large Cap, Dividend-Paying and Junior E&P s P/CF P/E D/CF EV/DACF EV/Boe/d EV/P+P NAV % Company Ticker Price E 2017E E 2017E E 2017E E 2017E E 2017E Reserves P/Core P/Risked P/Unrisked Integrated Cenovus Energy CVE $ x 17.1x 13.2x nm nm nm 1.4x 3.8x 3.4x 9.6x 16.0x 13.5x $57,913 $63,934 $59,861 $ % 205% 146% Husky Energy HSE $ x 6.3x 5.7x nm nm nm 2.0x 2.7x 2.5x 6.3x 8.6x 7.9x $64,037 $65,341 $64,548 $ % 171% 121% Imperial Oil IMO $ x 15.9x 14.2x nm nm nm 2.9x 2.4x 2.2x 15.9x 17.8x 16.4x $123,899 $99,610 $94,725 $ % 218% 158% Suncor Energy SU $ x 10.6x 9.4x nm nm nm 1.7x 3.1x 3.0x 7.3x 12.2x 11.7x $109,217 $112,677 $99,521 $ % 228% 145% Average 8.4x 12.5x 10.6x nm nm nm 2.0x 3.0x 2.8x 9.8x 13.6x 12.4x $88,767 $85,390 $79,664 $ % 205% 142% Large Cap Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $ x 11.6x 7.9x nm nm nm 3.0x 5.3x 3.4x 9.1x 15.5x 10.7x $64,886 $67,410 $64,603 $ % 342% 181% Encana ECA (US) $ x 8.0x 7.8x nm nm nm 3.6x 7.3x 8.1x 5.0x 9.4x 9.8x $24,577 $27,702 $32,482 $16.40 nm 80% 34% Tourmaline Oil TOU $27.61 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R Average 5.0x 9.8x 7.9x nm nm nm 3.3x 6.3x 5.7x 7.0x 12.5x 10.3x $44,731 $47,556 $48,543 $ % 211% 107% Dividend-Paying Cardinal Energy CJ $ x 10.5x 11.2x x 2.5x 3.7x 7.3x 11.3x 12.9x $60,212 $48,435 $52,044 $ % 242% 212% Freehold Royalties FRU $ x 15.5x 19.6x x 1.8x 2.1x 14.6x 16.1x 20.2x $104,325 $121,040 $138,340 nm nm 426% 426% Granite Oil GXO $6.96 nm 8.4x 6.8x x 1.6x 1.2x nmf 9.1x 7.4x nm $77,616 $71,748 $ % 137% 78% PrairieSky Royalty PSK $ x 35.9x 30.7x nm nm nm 31.2x 35.2x 29.9x $214,312 $252,902 $257,130 nm nm 343% 343% TORC Oil & Gas TOG $ x 13.2x 9.5x x 3.5x 2.6x 10.9x 14.6x 10.8x $95,808 $83,773 $81,545 $ % 294% 201% E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 6.7x 10.7x 9.2x 1.5x 2.5x 2.5x 9.1x 11.7x 10.4x $78,010 $69,941 $68,446 $ % 225% 163% Royalty Group Average x 25.7x 25.1x 1.4x 1.8x 2.1x 22.9x 25.6x 25.0x $159,319 $186,971 $197,735 nm 385% 385% Junior Advantage Oil & Gas AAV $ x 8.3x 6.6x x 1.2x 1.1x 11.7x 9.2x 7.3x $65,398 $43,522 $37,142 $ % 108% 66% Bellatrix Exploration BXE $ x 3.1x 2.0x x 9.1x 6.1x 6.4x 7.7x 5.9x $23,246 $25,117 $24,463 $ % 233% 68% Birchcliff Energy BIR $ x 9.4x 4.7x x 8.0x 4.5x 7.9x 13.1x 7.6x $37,288 $37,122 $34,921 $ % 76% 41% Cequence Energy CQE $ x 30.8x 6.1x x 27.8x 10.5x 4.9x 21.0x 11.7x $16,573 $18,947 $25,908 $1.17 nm 122% 122% Crew Energy CR $ x 10.0x 8.6x x 4.7x 4.6x 7.9x 11.7x 10.1x $42,175 $33,225 $32,675 $ % 162% 76% Journey Energy JOY $ x 8.6x 4.2x x 10.9x 5.6x 3.6x 13.2x 8.0x $18,372 $21,146 $21,170 $3.81 nm nm nm Kelt Exploration KEL $ x 19.2x 10.3x x 6.0x 3.8x 14.2x 20.6x 12.2x $48,280 $43,005 $45,003 $ % 192% 78% Long Run Exploration LRE $ x 4.8x 4.0x x 36.2x 33.6x 4.0x 12.6x 12.3x $23,651 $29,630 $34,437 $5.23 nm nm nm NuVista Energy NVA $ x 6.4x 6.9x x 2.0x 3.1x 7.4x 7.9x 9.1x $43,435 $39,140 $37,884 $ % 156% 105% Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $ x 11.7x 4.6x x 5.8x 4.3x 16.2x 15.2x 7.8x $35,121 $30,682 $20,381 $ % 428% 107% Paramount Resources POU $ x 23.8x 5.5x x 64.1x 16.8x 11.6x 16.5x 10.6x $57,348 $50,906 $46,385 $7.29 nm nm 106% Perpetual Energy PMT $0.07 nm nm nm x nm nm 6.3x nm 12.4x $10,389 $15,601 $18,757 $ % 414% nm Pine Cliff Energy PNE $ x nm 5.1x x nm 2.9x 13.1x nm 7.7x $28,360 $15,955 $14,346 $ % 247% 194% Raging River Exploration RRX $ x 13.7x 11.0x x 0.3x 0.3x 12.4x 13.8x 11.2x $155,158 $122,950 $116,145 $ % 215% 155% RMP Energy RMP $ x 4.2x 2.9x x 2.2x 1.9x 3.1x 5.3x 4.1x $24,768 $25,770 $26,327 $ % 168% 133% Seven Generations Energy VII $ x 10.7x 9.0x x 2.8x 3.7x 11.8x 10.0x 9.6x $100,230 $59,915 $55,556 $ % 319% 261% Spartan Energy SPE $ x 16.0x 12.3x x 0.2x 0.6x 11.7x 13.4x 10.5x $91,967 $80,492 $73,931 $ % 227% 174% Storm Resources SRX $ x 15.3x 9.9x x 4.0x 4.6x 11.2x 16.9x 12.5x $46,398 $36,203 $33,981 $ % 409% 270% Tamarack Valley TVE $ x 9.2x 7.8x x 1.5x 2.2x 7.9x 10.5x 9.3x $61,237 $50,614 $43,628 $10.71 nm 360% 181% Average 7.1x 12.1x 6.8x 8.5x 11.0x 6.1x 9.1x 12.9x 9.5x $48,916 $41,050 $39,107 $ % 240% 134% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. 4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. 9

10 10 Exhibit 9. Comparables (Strip Pricing) International E&P s and Oilfield Services Co s P/CF P/E D/CF EV/DACF EV/Boe/d EV/P+P NAV % Company Ticker Price E 2017E E 2017E E 2017E E 2017E E 2017E Reserves P/Core P/Risked P/Unrisked International Bankers Petroleum BNK $ x 9.5x 19.2x nm 0.1x 4.5x 1.9x 5.9x 10.9x $20,769 $29,937 $37,667 $ % 54% -- Canacol Energy CNE $ x 8.4x 3.9x x 2.9x 1.1x 6.1x 6.8x 3.5x $59,621 $59,100 $39,288 $ % 83% -- Gran Tierra Energy GTE $ x 9.2x 7.8x nm nm 0.2x 5.7x 5.9x 6.0x $31,606 $30,741 $33,190 $ % 155% -- Pacific Exploration & Production PRE $ x 0.7x 0.6x x 17.7x 17.0x 4.2x 7.0x 7.0x $39,887 $52,788 $71,682 $12.67 nm nm -- Parex Resources PXT $ x 18.5x 18.0x nm nm 0.9x 9.2x 12.1x 13.4x $59,376 $59,815 $64,154 $ % 156% -- TransGlobe Energy TGL $2.19 nm nm 292.3x x 2.5x 21.1x nm nm 20.0x $2,969 $8,953 $14,837 $ % 94% -- Average 6.4x 9.3x 9.9x 7.6x 5.8x 7.5x 5.4x 7.5x 10.1x $35,705 $40,222 $43,470 $ % 108% Oilfield Services EV/EBITDA P/TBook Black Diamond Group BDI $ x 3.9x 3.1x 12.9x nm 17.5x 1.9x 3.2x 2.3x 3.6x 5.9x 4.4x x Calfrac Well Services CFW $1.27 nm nm 2.9x nm nm nm nm nm 20.3x 21.8x nm 11.6x x Canyon Services Group FRC $3.51 R R R R R R R R R R R R R Enerflex EFX $ x 5.5x 5.3x 9.5x 14.1x 11.2x 2.7x 2.1x 1.9x 5.1x 5.9x 5.6x x Ensign Energy Services ESI $ x 4.9x 3.9x nm nm nm 2.6x 3.4x 2.6x 5.1x 9.6x 6.7x x Mullen Group MTL $ x 10.6x 9.1x 34.9x 33.3x 19.9x 3.6x 4.8x 4.1x 8.9x 10.2x 8.6x x Pason Systems PSI $ x 26.8x 17.7x nm nm nm nm nm nm 11.9x 25.8x 15.5x x Precision Drilling PD $ x 11.5x 6.0x nm nm nm 4.9x 12.4x 6.2x 6.7x 13.1x 8.3x x Savanna Energy Services SVY $ x 2.1x 1.4x nm nm nm 3.3x 4.2x 2.7x 3.7x 5.7x 3.8x x Secure Energy Services SES $ x 13.6x 10.0x nm nm nm 2.0x 1.0x 0.5x 11.2x 14.8x 9.9x x Total Energy Services TOT $ x 22.4x 12.3x 35.0x nm 18.1x 2.7x 0.7x 1.0x 8.3x 17.5x 8.2x x Trican Well Service TCW $1.15 nm 4.7x 2.8x nm nm 8.7x nm 5.0x 4.4x nm nm 6.9x x Trinidad Drilling TDG $ x 9.3x 6.6x nm nm nm 4.5x 16.2x 12.0x 5.5x 8.0x 7.7x x Western Energy Services WRG $ x 28.7x 6.3x nm nm nm 4.0x 28.5x 6.4x 6.9x 15.5x 7.2x x Average 7.3x 12.0x 6.7x 23.0x 23.7x 15.1x 3.2x 7.4x 5.4x 8.2x 12.0x 8.0x 1.1x 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. 3) Oilfield Services, Junior E&Ps, Large Caps and Integrated E&Ps D/CF calculated using Net Debt; Dividend-Paying, and International's D/CF calculated using Current Assets minus Current Liabilities Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

11 Exhibit 10. CIBC vs Consensus Integrated, Large Cap, Dividend-Paying and Junior E&P s 2016E CFPS 2016E Production 2017E CFPS 2017E Production Company Ticker CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference Integrated Cenovus Energy CVE $1.73 $ % $ , ,119-1% $3.07 $ % $ , ,395 3% Husky Energy HSE $3.50 $ % $ , ,462 1% $4.94 $ % $ , ,937 0% Imperial Oil IMO $3.45 $ % $ , ,476 0% $6.45 $ % $ , ,265 5% Suncor Energy SU $4.43 $ % $ , ,240 3% $7.45 $ % $ , ,085 11% Average 40% 1% 53% 5% Large Cap Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $4.58 $ % $ , ,935 0% $8.41 $ % $ , ,714 1% Encana ECA (US) $0.96 $ % $ , ,420 0% $1.73 $1.69 2% $ , ,751-3% Tourmaline Oil TOU R $3.76 na R R 199,552 na R $5.04 na R R 210,572 na Average -1% 0% 22% -1% Dividend-Paying Cardinal Energy CJ $1.05 $0.97 8% $ ,600 14,599 0% $1.96 $ % $ ,600 14,577 0% Freehold Royalties FRU $0.96 $ % $ ,016 9,946 1% $1.22 $ % $0.56 8,779 9,284-5% Granite Oil GXO $1.07 $ % $0.82 3,250 3,216 1% $1.74 $ % $1.03 3,500 3,532-1% PrairieSky Royalty PSK $0.85 $0.82 4% $ ,876 21,603 1% $1.08 $ % $ ,443 21,593-1% TORC Oil & Gas TOG $0.83 $ % $ ,125 18,145 0% $1.53 $ % $ ,865 18,316 3% E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 14% 1% 36% -1% Junior Advantage Oil & Gas AAV $1.01 $0.93 8% $ ,740 32,896 0% $1.31 $ % $ ,962 38,856 0% Bellatrix Exploration BXE $0.67 $ % $ ,000 38,198 2% $1.07 $ % $ ,000 37,318 10% Birchcliff Energy BIR $1.13 $ % $ ,500 40,531 0% $1.84 $ % $ ,500 44,098 3% Cequence Energy CQE $0.09 $0.09 2% $0.01 9,500 9,139 4% $0.18 $ % $ ,000 8,682 15% Crew Energy CR $0.61 $ % $ ,000 24,043 0% $0.94 $ % $ ,525 26,000-2% Journey Energy JOY $0.66 $ % $0.22 8,700 8,847-2% $1.40 $ % $0.45 9,600 8,090 19% Kelt Exploration KEL $0.41 $ % $ ,000 20,925 0% $0.78 $ % $ ,000 20,807 1% Long Run Exploration LRE $0.29 $ % $ ,495 26,094 5% $0.57 $ % $ ,000 21,597 20% NuVista Energy NVA $0.81 $ % $ ,055 25,027 0% $1.17 $ % $ ,615 26,584 8% Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $0.61 $ % $ ,000 23,148-1% $1.58 $1.46 8% $ ,285 46,166-4% Paramount Resources POU $1.32 $ % $ ,750 51,861 4% $3.83 $ % $ ,495 54,552 15% Perpetual Energy PMT -$0.01 -$ % -$ ,015 17,806 1% $0.09 $ % -$ ,500 15,772 11% Pine Cliff Energy PNE $0.15 $ % $ ,525 22,670 4% $0.29 $ % $ ,177 20,765 16% Raging River Exploration RRX $0.88 $ % $ ,500 16,571 0% $1.38 $ % $ ,625 17,572 0% RMP Energy RMP $0.50 $ % $ ,750 10,656 1% $0.79 $ % $ ,500 10,468 10% Seven Generations Energy VII $2.28 $ % $ , ,932-1% $3.44 $ % $ , ,169-3% Spartan Energy SPE $0.25 $ % $0.17 9,187 8,795 4% $0.46 $ % $ ,436 9,141 14% Storm Resources SRX $0.40 $0.40 0% $ ,966 14,849-6% $0.68 $0.63 8% $ ,261 18,255-5% Tamarack Valley TVE $0.55 $0.50 9% $0.40 9,636 9,295 4% $1.03 $ % $ ,331 9,753 26% Average 34% 1% 72% 8% 1) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. Consensus numbers converted from $CAD to $USD using currency strip pricing; 0.70 USD/CAD for 2015 and 0.70 USD/CAD for ) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

12 12 Exhibit 11. CIBC vs Consensus International E&P s and Oilfield Services Co s 2016E CFPS 2016E Production 2017E CFPS 2017E Production Company Ticker CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Strip CIBC Base Consensus Difference International Bankers Petroleum BNK $0.23 $ % $ ,217 16,475 77% $0.45 $0.48-6% $ ,629 17,188 72% Canacol Energy CNE $0.40 $ % $ ,779 18, % $0.90 $ % $ ,204 22,914 71% Gran Tierra Energy GTE $0.51 $0.48 5% $ ,231 25,941 9% $1.00 $ % $ ,504 27,838-16% Pacific Rubiales PRE $1.60 $ % $ , ,034-60% $3.56 $ % $ , ,752-40% Parex Resources PXT $0.83 $ % $ ,043 29,305 98% $1.43 $ % $ ,774 32,455 75% TransGlobe Energy TGL -$0.05 $ % -$0.21 7,475 11,657-36% $0.62 $ % $0.01 8,287 12,682-35% Average -78% 52% 23% 21% Oilfield Services 2016E Revenue 2016E EBITDA 2017E Revenue 2017E EBITDA Company Ticker CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference CIBC Base Consensus Difference Black Diamond Group BDI $185 $200-7% $52 $62-16% $220 $218 1% $67 $65 3% Calfrac Well Services CFW $1,032 $939 10% $17 $21-22% $1,447 $1,245 16% $102 $84 22% Canyon Services Group FRC R $289 na R $17 na R $418 na R $46 na Enerflex EFX $1,228 $1,166 5% $184 $181 1% $1,435 $1,331 8% $193 $206-6% Ensign Energy Services ESI $795 $915-13% $160 $178-10% $1,113 $1,123-1% $225 $227-1% Mullen Group MTL $1,085 $1,131-4% $188 $196-4% $1,201 $1,273-6% $222 $243-9% Pason Systems PSI $187 $184 1% $47 $47 0% $270 $251 7% $82 $87-6% Precision Drilling PD $960 $1,046-8% $256 $282-9% $1,368 $1,329 3% $397 $371 7% Savanna Energy Services SVY $294 $323-9% $64 $61 4% $424 $411 3% $95 $79 20% Secure Energy Services SES $1,079 $1,101-2% $94 $100-6% $1,417 $1,500-6% $139 $158-12% Total Energy Services TOT $170 $207-18% $21 $30-28% $313 $285 10% $48 $53-10% Trican Well Service TCW $491 $556-12% -$2 $4-147% $654 $673-3% $64 $56 14% Trinidad Drilling TDG $295 $414-29% $126 $140-10% $414 $505-18% $134 $144-7% Western Energy Services WRG $143 $163-12% $27 $29-8% $252 $246 2% $58 $56 3% Average -7% -20% 1% 1% 1) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

13 Exhibit 12. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics CIBC Base Price Case Production Per Share Growth CFPS Growth EPS Growth E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE 6% -2% -5% 11% 3% -4% -55% -16% 78% 22% -46% -159% -22% -292% 75% Husky Energy HSE 9% 2% -2% 2% 6% 6% -40% 3% 41% 20% -35% -88% 112% 318% 40% Imperial Oil IMO 5% 18% 17% 6% 3% 24% -47% 4% 87% 11% 9% -67% 4% 223% 10% Suncor Energy SU -5% 8% 9% 16% 10% -1% -24% -6% 68% 23% 1% -68% -8% 197% 28% Integrated Average 4% 7% 5% 9% 5% 6% -41% -4% 68% 19% -18% -95% 21% 112% 38% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 18% 8% -2% 2% 1% 27% -39% -13% 84% 19% 55% -93% -251% -937% 43% Encana ECA (US) -8% -24% -17% -10% -6% 13% -56% -45% 80% 30% 25% -105% 573% -142% 204% Tourmaline Oil TOU 40% 29% R R R 64% -14% R R R 178% -84% R R R Large Cap Average 17% 4% -9% -4% -3% 35% -36% -29% 82% 24% 86% -94% 161% -540% 124% Total Average 9% 6% 0% 5% 3% 18% -39% -12% 73% 21% 27% -95% 68% -105% 67% Production (Boe/d) Total Cash Flow/Boe FCF Yield E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE 284, , , , ,678 $31.56 $4.35 $17.13 $23.80 $ % 17% 1% 8% 7% Husky Energy HSE 340, , , , ,934 $44.46 $26.35 $27.93 $38.62 $ % 3% 8% 13% 13% Imperial Oil IMO 309, , , , ,531 $46.99 $21.70 $18.78 $33.19 $ % -1% 10% 8% 8% Suncor Energy SU 534, , , , ,403 $48.62 $34.00 $32.79 $45.58 $ % 0% -7% 10% 14% Integrated Average $42.91 $21.60 $24.16 $35.30 $ % 5% 3% 10% 10% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 790, , , , ,721 $33.24 $18.60 $16.39 $29.57 $ % 3% 3% 17% 22% Encana ECA (US) 478, , , , ,884 $15.53 $9.65 $6.36 $12.72 $ % 21% 15% 7% -8% Tourmaline Oil TOU 112, ,403 R R R $22.54 $15.09 R R R -6% -14% R R R Large Cap Average $23.77 $14.45 $11.37 $21.14 $ % 3% 9% 12% 7% Total Average $34.71 $18.53 $19.90 $30.58 $ % 4% 5% 10% 9% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. 13

14 14 Exhibit 13. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics Forward Strip Case Production Per Share Growth CFPS Growth EPS Growth E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE 6% -2% -5% 11% 3% -4% -55% -52% 30% 27% -46% -159% 113% -13% -28% Husky Energy HSE 9% 2% -2% 2% 6% 6% -40% -26% 9% 30% -35% -88% -497% -21% -90% Imperial Oil IMO 5% 18% 17% 6% 3% 24% -47% -17% 11% 12% 9% -67% -53% 41% 36% Suncor Energy SU -5% 8% 9% 16% 10% -1% -24% -28% 13% 19% 1% -68% -87% -95% 1364% Integrated Average 4% 7% 5% 9% 5% 6% -41% -31% 16% 22% -18% -95% -131% -22% 320% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 18% 8% -2% 2% 1% 27% -39% -42% 46% 15% 55% -93% -864% -75% -140% Encana ECA (US) -8% -24% -17% -10% -6% 13% -56% -57% 3% 25% 25% -105% 793% -16% -30% Tourmaline Oil TOU 40% 29% R R R 64% -14% R R R 178% -84% R R R Large Cap Average 17% 4% -9% -4% -3% 35% -36% -50% 24% 20% 86% -94% -35% -45% -85% Total Average 9% 6% 0% 5% 3% 18% -39% -37% 19% 21% 27% -95% -99% -30% 185% Production (Boe/d) Total Cash Flow/Boe FCF Yield E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE 284, , , , ,678 $31.56 $4.35 $11.52 $9.95 $ % 17% -4% -3% -5% Husky Energy HSE 340, , , , ,934 $44.46 $26.35 $20.00 $21.44 $ % 3% 2% -1% -2% Imperial Oil IMO 309, , , , ,531 $46.99 $21.70 $15.03 $15.81 $ % -1% 9% 0% 0% Suncor Energy SU 534, , , , ,403 $48.62 $34.00 $25.82 $25.37 $ % 0% -10% 0% 1% Integrated Average $42.91 $21.60 $18.09 $18.14 $ % 5% -1% -1% -2% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 790, , , , ,721 $33.24 $18.60 $10.89 $15.60 $ % 3% -1% 6% 8% Encana ECA (US) 478, , , , ,884 $15.53 $9.65 $4.94 $5.62 $ % 21% 12% -9% -30% Tourmaline Oil TOU 112, ,403 R R R $22.54 $15.09 R R R -6% -14% R R R Large Cap Average $23.77 $14.45 $7.91 $10.61 $ % 3% 5% -2% -11% Total Average $34.71 $18.53 $14.70 $15.63 $ % 4% 1% -1% -5% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

15 Exhibit 14. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation CIBC Base Price Case Net Debt/Capitalization Net Debt/Cash Flow Total Payout Ratio E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE 31% 16% 17% 11% 5% 1.3x 1.4x 1.7x 0.6x 0.2x 103% nm 106% 63% 73% Husky Energy HSE 16% 29% 26% 16% 6% 0.7x 2.0x 1.7x 0.8x 0.2x 111% 122% 64% 59% 65% Imperial Oil IMO 23% 26% 17% 8% 0% 1.3x 2.9x 1.7x 0.4x 0.0x 97% 132% -14% 54% 59% Suncor Energy SU 16% 22% 28% 23% 16% 0.9x 1.7x 2.3x 1.1x 0.6x 93% 122% 120% 69% 61% Integrated Average 22% 23% 22% 15% 7% 1.0x 2.0x 1.9x 0.7x 0.3x 101% 125% 69% 61% 64% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 33% 38% 39% 27% 8% 1.5x 3.0x 3.3x 1.2x 0.3x 136% 97% 94% 40% 32% Encana ECA (US) 42% 45% 44% 42% 44% 2.4x 3.6x 5.5x 2.9x 2.5x 175% 38% 12% 78% 123% Tourmaline Oil TOU 21% 23% R R R 1.2x 1.8x R R R 168% 181% R R R Large Cap Average 32% 35% 41% 35% 26% 1.7x 2.8x 4.4x 2.0x 1.4x 160% 105% 53% 59% 78% Total Average 26% 29% 29% 21% 13% 1.3x 2.4x 2.7x 1.2x 0.6x 126% 115% 64% 60% 69% Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. EV/DACF P/EPS P/RNAV E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E CIBC Base US$40/Bbl, US$2.50/Mcf US$50/Bbl, US$3.00/Mcf US$60/Bbl, US$3.50/Mcf Cenovus Energy CVE 7.1x 9.6x 9.7x 5.6x 4.4x 20.2x na na 23.0x 13.1x 59% nm 184% 102% 72% Husky Energy HSE 6.3x 6.3x 6.0x 3.8x 2.9x 11.2x na na 10.9x 7.8x 71% nm 137% 94% 71% Imperial Oil IMO 8.2x 15.9x 14.5x 7.2x 6.0x 12.0x na na 10.8x 9.9x 79% nm 281% 132% 90% Suncor Energy SU 6.7x 7.3x 9.3x 5.7x 4.3x 11.4x na na 12.9x 10.1x 89% nm 211% 129% 95% Integrated Average 7.1x 9.8x 9.9x 5.6x 4.4x 13.7x na na 14.4x 10.2x 75% nm 203% 114% 82% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 6.0x 9.1x 10.3x 5.2x 3.7x 10.2x na na 11.6x 8.1x 89% nm 262% 133% 90% Encana ECA (US) 3.4x 5.0x 7.8x 5.0x 4.3x 4.4x na na 28.4x 9.3x 30% nm 66% 38% 27% Tourmaline Oil TOU 11.7x 8.6x R R R 12.1x na R R R 54% nm R R R Large Cap Average 7.0x 7.5x 9.1x 5.1x 4.0x 8.9x na na 20.0x 8.7x 58% nm 164% 86% 59% Total Average 7.1x 8.8x 9.6x 5.4x 4.3x 11.6x na na 16.3x 9.7x 67% nm 190% 105% 74% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. US$70/Bbl, US$4.00/Mcf 15

16 16 Exhibit 15. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation Forward Strip Case Net Debt/Capitalization Net Debt/Cash Flow Total Payout Ratio E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE 31% 16% 22% 26% 32% 1.3x 1.4x 3.8x 3.4x 3.4x 103% nm 186% 151% 168% Husky Energy HSE 16% 29% 29% 30% 31% 0.7x 2.0x 2.7x 2.5x 2.0x 111% 122% 89% 107% 108% Imperial Oil IMO 23% 26% 19% 20% 21% 1.3x 2.9x 2.4x 2.2x 2.2x 97% 132% -17% 112% 122% Suncor Energy SU 16% 22% 29% 32% 35% 0.9x 1.7x 3.1x 3.0x 2.8x 93% 122% 156% 133% 119% Integrated Average 22% 23% 25% 27% 30% 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 2.8x 2.6x 101% 125% 104% 126% 129% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 33% 38% 42% 41% 39% 1.5x 3.0x 5.3x 3.4x 2.6x 136% 97% 142% 75% 62% Encana ECA (US) 42% 45% 46% 51% 60% 2.4x 3.6x 7.3x 8.1x 8.5x 175% 38% 16% 177% 291% Tourmaline Oil TOU 21% 23% R R R 1.2x 1.8x R R R 168% 181% R R R Large Cap Average 32% 35% 44% 46% 49% 1.7x 2.8x 6.3x 5.7x 5.5x 160% 105% 79% 126% 176% Total Average 26% 29% 31% 33% 36% 1.3x 2.4x 4.1x 3.8x 3.6x 126% 115% 95% 126% 145% Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. EV/DACF P/EPS P/RNAV E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Forward Strip US$40/Bbl, US$2.50/Mcf US$50/Bbl, US$3.00/Mcf US$60/Bbl, US$3.50/Mcf Cenovus Energy CVE 7.1x 9.6x 16.0x 13.5x 11.6x 20.2x na na na na 205% nm 184% 102% 72% Husky Energy HSE 6.3x 6.3x 8.6x 7.9x 6.2x 11.2x na na na na 171% nm 137% 94% 71% Imperial Oil IMO 8.2x 15.9x 17.8x 16.4x 14.8x 12.0x na na na na 218% nm 281% 132% 90% Suncor Energy SU 6.7x 7.3x 12.2x 11.7x 10.1x 11.4x na na na na 228% nm 211% 129% 95% Integrated Average 7.1x 9.8x 13.6x 12.4x 10.7x 13.7x na na na na 205% nm 203% 114% 82% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 6.0x 9.1x 15.5x 10.7x 9.0x 10.2x na na na na 342% nm 262% 133% 90% Encana ECA (US) 3.4x 5.0x 9.4x 9.8x 9.8x 4.4x na na na na 80% nm 66% 38% 27% Tourmaline Oil TOU 11.7x 8.6x R R R 12.1x na R R R 79% nm R R R Large Cap Average 7.0x 7.5x 12.5x 10.3x 9.4x 8.9x na na na na 167% nm 164% 86% 59% Total Average 7.1x 8.8x 13.2x 11.7x 10.3x 11.6x na na na na 189% nm 190% 105% 74% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. US$70/Bbl, US$4.00/Mcf

17 Exhibit 16. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Per Share Metrics CIBC Base Price Case Forward Strip Case Cash Flow Per Share ($) Earnings Per Share ($) Cash Flow Per Share ($) Earnings Per Share ($) E 2016E 2017E 2018E E 2016E 2017E 2018E E 2016E 2017E 2018E E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE $4.59 $2.07 $1.73 $3.07 $3.73 $0.84 -$0.49 -$0.38 $0.73 $1.29 $4.59 $2.07 $0.99 $1.28 $1.63 $0.84 -$0.49 -$1.05 -$0.91 -$0.65 CAGR (%) -4% -34% -29% -10% -5% -46% na -163% -17% -4% -4% -34% -41% -28% -19% -5% na -197% na -195% Husky Energy HSE $5.62 $3.38 $3.50 $4.94 $5.91 $1.40 $0.16 $0.35 $1.45 $2.02 $5.62 $3.38 $2.51 $2.74 $3.56 $1.40 $0.16 -$0.65 -$0.51 -$0.05 CAGR (%) 6% -20% -13% -2% 2% -35% -72% -46% -9% -1% 6% -20% -22% -15% -8% -3% -17% -192% na -180% Imperial Oil IMO $6.25 $3.32 $3.45 $6.45 $7.19 $3.63 $1.21 $1.25 $4.03 $4.44 $6.25 $3.32 $2.76 $3.07 $3.45 $3.63 $1.21 $0.56 $0.79 $1.07 CAGR (%) 24% -19% -12% 6% 7% 9% -40% -28% 5% 6% 24% -19% -18% -12% -7% 1% -7% -11% -9% -6% Suncor Energy SU $6.18 $4.71 $4.43 $7.45 $9.13 $3.15 $1.01 $0.93 $2.77 $3.55 $6.18 $4.71 $3.38 $3.81 $4.52 $3.15 $1.01 $0.13 $0.01 $0.10 CAGR (%) -1% -13% -11% 4% 8% 1% -43% -33% -3% 3% -1% -13% -19% -12% -6% 0% -8% -19% -32% -18% Integrated Average $5.66 $3.37 $3.28 $5.48 $6.49 $2.25 $0.47 $0.54 $2.25 $2.82 $5.66 $3.37 $2.41 $2.73 $3.29 $2.25 $0.47 -$0.25 -$0.16 $0.12 CAGR (%) Average 6% -21% -15% 1% 4% -11% -57% -40% -3% 2% 6% -21% -23% -16% -9% -11% -57% -146% na -46% Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $8.74 $5.29 $4.58 $8.41 $10.02 $3.47 $0.24 -$0.36 $3.04 $4.35 $8.74 $5.29 $3.04 $4.44 $5.12 $3.47 $0.24 -$1.84 -$0.46 $0.18 CAGR (%) 27% -12% -13% 5% 8% 55% -67% -155% 8% 14% 27% -12% -24% -10% -6% 3% -15% -199% na -14% Encana ECA $3.96 $1.74 $0.96 $1.73 $2.24 $1.35 -$0.07 -$0.50 $0.21 $0.64 $3.96 $1.74 $0.74 $0.76 $0.95 $1.35 -$0.07 -$0.66 -$0.56 -$0.39 CAGR (%) 13% -29% -35% -16% -9% 25% na -177% -34% -10% 13% -29% -40% -32% -23% 2% na -197% na -194% Tourmaline Oil TOU $4.58 $3.96 R R R $2.29 $0.37 R R R $4.58 $3.96 R R R $2.29 $0.37 R R R CAGR (%) 64% 19% R R R 178% -33% R R R 64% 19% R R R 16% -9% R R R Large Cap Average $5.76 $3.66 $2.77 $5.07 $6.13 $2.37 $0.18 -$0.43 $1.62 $2.49 $5.76 $3.66 $1.89 $2.60 $3.04 $2.37 $0.18 -$1.25 -$0.51 -$0.10 CAGR (%) Average 31% -9% -14% 4% 7% 72% -64% -168% 4% 13% 31% -9% -24% -12% -7% 72% -64% -197% na -160% Total Average $5.70 $3.49 $3.11 $5.34 $6.37 $2.30 $0.35 $0.21 $2.04 $2.71 $5.70 $3.49 $2.24 $2.68 $3.20 $2.30 $0.35 -$0.58 -$0.27 $0.04 CAGR (%) Average 16% -16% -14% 2% 5% 13% -59% -53% 0% 6% 16% -16% -23% -14% -8% 13% -59% -166% na -54% 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. 17

18 Exhibit 17. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Capital Expenditures, Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow CIBC Base Price Case Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Cash Flow ($ millions) Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE $2,791 -$1,172 $1,351 $1,438 $2,109 $3,479 $1,691 $1,431 $2,554 $3,104 $687 -$71 $81 $1,116 $995 Husky Energy HSE $4,961 $2,883 $2,200 $2,877 $3,781 $5,526 $3,329 $3,445 $4,858 $5,816 $431 $324 $1,244 $1,981 $2,035 Imperial Oil IMO $4,736 $3,380 -$874 $2,464 $3,104 $5,315 $2,901 $2,930 $5,489 $6,113 -$272 -$621 $1,004 $3,025 $3,010 Suncor Energy SU $6,858 $6,750 $10,744 $6,078 $6,580 $9,058 $6,806 $6,842 $11,351 $13,699 $2,097 $139 $424 $5,274 $7,119 Integrated Average $4,837 $2,960 $3,355 $3,214 $3,893 $5,845 $3,682 $3,662 $6,063 $7,183 $736 -$57 $688 $2,849 $3,290 Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $11,581 $4,309 $3,713 $2,631 $2,480 $9,202 $5,495 $5,012 $9,205 $10,970 $521 $2,012 $1,299 $6,574 $8,489 Encana ECA $4,987 $394 $50 $1,100 $2,300 $2,966 $1,438 $813 $1,467 $1,904 $440 -$794 -$137 $367 -$396 Tourmaline Oil TOU $1,564 $1,536 R R R $929 $850 R R R -$167 -$771 R R R Large Cap Average $6,044 $2,080 $1,882 $1,866 $2,390 $4,366 $2,594 $2,913 $5,336 $6,437 $265 $149 $581 $3,471 $4,047 Total Average $5,354 $2,583 $2,864 $2,765 $3,392 $5,211 $3,216 $3,412 $5,821 $6,934 $534 $31 $652 $3,056 $3,542 Forward Strip Case Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Cash Flow ($ millions) Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Cenovus Energy CVE $2,791 -$1,172 $1,351 $1,438 $2,109 $3,479 $1,691 $816 $1,064 $1,353 $687 -$71 -$535 -$375 -$757 Husky Energy HSE $4,961 $2,883 $2,200 $2,877 $3,781 $5,526 $3,329 $2,466 $2,697 $3,506 $431 $324 $266 -$180 -$275 Imperial Oil IMO $4,736 $3,380 -$874 $2,464 $3,104 $5,315 $2,901 $2,345 $2,615 $2,930 -$272 -$621 $419 $151 -$174 Suncor Energy SU $6,858 $6,750 $10,744 $6,078 $6,580 $9,058 $6,806 $5,235 $5,899 $6,988 $2,097 $139 -$1,184 -$179 $408 Integrated Average $4,837 $2,960 $3,355 $3,214 $3,893 $5,845 $3,682 $2,716 $3,068 $3,694 $736 -$57 -$258 -$146 -$199 Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $11,581 $4,309 $3,713 $2,631 $2,480 $9,202 $5,495 $3,330 $4,857 $5,606 $521 $2,012 -$383 $2,225 $3,126 Encana ECA $4,987 $394 $50 $1,100 $2,300 $2,966 $1,438 $632 $648 $808 $440 -$794 -$318 -$452 -$1,492 Tourmaline Oil TOU $1,564 $1,536 R R R $929 $850 R R R -$167 -$771 R R R Large Cap Average $6,044 $2,080 $1,882 $1,866 $2,390 $4,366 $2,594 $1,981 $2,752 $3,207 $265 $149 -$350 $887 $817 Total Average $5,354 $2,583 $2,864 $2,765 $3,392 $5,211 $3,216 $2,471 $2,963 $3,532 $534 $31 -$289 $198 $140 1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. 3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

19 Exhibit 18. Dividend Paying E&P s Comparables CIBC Base Price Case Share O/S 1 Mkt. Cap. Net Bank Debt 1 Other Debt 1 Enterprise Value CFPS 2 P/CF EV/DACF 3. Development Capex ($MM) Total Payout (%) D/CF Company Ticker Price (MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Debt/EV Bank Line Price Return Rating 5. Analyst Cardinal Energy CJ $ $567 $71 $0 $638 $1.61 $1.05 $ x 8.3x 4.4x 7.3x 9.0x 4.8x $37 $25 $30 92% 74% 43% 1.5x 1.8x 0.7x 11% 62% $ % SO Gill Freehold Royalties FRU $ $1,079 $147 $0 $1,226 $1.15 $0.96 $ x 11.5x 9.0x 14.6x 12.0x 9.2x $22 $7 $10 108% 67% 48% 1.4x 1.0x 0.2x 11% 62% $ % SP Grayfer Granite Oil GXO $ $211 $42 $0 $253 $2.38 $1.07 $1.74 nm 6.5x 4.0x nmf 6.9x 4.0x $64 $14 $18 98% 81% 57% 0.5x 1.0x 0.2x 16% 61% $ % SO Gill PrairieSky Royalty PSK $ $5,719 -$210 $0 $5,508 $1.14 $0.85 $ x 29.6x 23.1x 31.2x 28.7x 22.1x $25 $0 $0 531% 96% 66% -1.2x -1.2x -1.3x -9% nm $ % SO Grayfer TORC Oil & Gas TOG $ $1,196 $286 $0 $1,482 $0.93 $0.83 $ x 8.9x 4.9x 10.9x 10.0x 5.2x $106 $90 $ % 97% 64% 2.3x 2.0x 0.7x 19% 59% $6.50-9% SO Gill Group Total/Average $1,754 $136 $0 $1, x 12.9x 9.1x 16.0x 13.3x 9.1x $51 $27 $37 194% 83% 56% 1.5x 1.5x 0.5x 15% 61% $ % Current Unutilized 12 Month Target Div. Core NAV Upside NAV Reserves Metrics 6 Hedging (Avg. 12 Mth Out) Production Volumes (Boe/d) Production EV/Boe/d 9 % Gas Yield (%) PPSG Yield (%) Operating Netbacks ($/Boe) Cash Netbacks ($/Boe) Company Ticker P+P P/CNAV 7 Risked P/RNAV 7 Unrisked P/URNAV 7 EV/Boe 8 RLI 2P Oil (Boe/d) Gas (Mcf/d) Gain / (Loss) 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Current 16E/15E 17E/16E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Cardinal Energy CJ $ % $ % $ % $ ,838 14,600 14,600 60,212 47,409 45,499 9% 13% 13% 5% 16% 4% $25.20 $16.42 $27.95 $21.91 $13.28 $25.03 Freehold Royalties FRU $ % na 154% na 154% $ na na na 10,945 10,016 8, , , ,011 38% 35% 36% 4% -16% -13% $28.83 $29.84 $41.35 $25.99 $25.99 $38.06 Granite Oil GXO $ % $ % $ % $ , ,550 3,250 3,500 nm 75,256 63,183 16% 0% 0% 6% nm 6% $35.56 $31.73 $45.37 $30.46 $28.31 $42.71 PrairieSky Royalty PSK $ % na 279% na 279% $ na na na 17,225 21,876 21, , , ,660 59% 53% 49% 3% -13% -2% $23.97 $25.51 $36.00 $28.28 $24.22 $31.73 TORC Oil & Gas TOG $ % $ % $ % $ ,588 18,125 18,865 95,808 81,320 72,597 12% 12% 12% 3% 1% 7% $26.82 $24.01 $39.79 $22.52 $20.72 $37.02 Average 106% 129% 114% $ , , ,390 27% 23% 22% 4% 8% 6% $28.07 $25.50 $38.09 $25.83 $22.51 $ Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent 4. Includes regular and special dividends. 8. Enterprise value over reserves. acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital, as of Q SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative. 9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil). 2. Cash flow per diluted share. 6. Based on 2P adjusted for acquisitions and dispositions. RLI based on Q4/14E production for CJ, GXO and TOG; and 2014E production for FRU and PSK. 3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow. 7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share. Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. 19