Highlights. August Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document. GDP growth and inflation

Transcription

1 August 217 GDP growth and inflation Ukraine: Sovereign ratings LCY rating S&P Moody's Fitch FCY rating Long-term B- Caa2 B- Short-term B n.a. n.a. Outlook Stable Positive Stable Long-term B- Caa2 B- Short-term B n.a. B Outlook Stable Positive Stable Latest review Dec-16 Aug-17 Apr-17 Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Financial Analysts Sergii Drobot, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Kyiv Ukraine Economist sergii.drobot@aval.ua Editor: GDP (% yoy) Source: State Statistics Service, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Andreas Schwabe, CFA, RBI Vienna Senior Economist CEE andreas.schwabe@rbinternational.com Inflation (eop, % yoy), r.h.s. Highlights Given the expectation of improved debt dynamics on the back of structural reforms, Moody s has upgraded Ukraine s sovereign rating from Caa3 to Caa2 and changed the outlook to positive from stable. The rating change is a positive event supporting Ukraine in the intent to return to the market. We expect Ukraine to issue Eurobonds this fall after the finalization of the IMF review. Ukraine s economy grew by 2.4% yoy in Q2 after +2.5% yoy in Q1, whereas in seasonally adjusted terms growth amounted to.6% qoq. This has been better than we had anticipated. Growth has likely been driven by private household demand, but also investment dynamics improved considerably. We estimate economic growth of at least 1.5% yoy in 217, with upside risks to this forecast. Industrial production declined by 2.6% yoy in July owing to a downturn in the mining and energy sector, while the expansion of retail sales slowed down from 9% yoy in June to 6.8% yoy in July. In July, the growth of consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to.2% mom from 1.6% mom, but due to the base effect, inflation accelerated from 15.6% yoy to 15.9% yoy. UAH strengthening persisted in most of August against the backdrop of significant tax payments that reduced LCY liquidity and forced exporters to sell more FCY. Nevertheless, most recently devaluation pressures emerged. We remain cautious, and keep our year-end USD/UAH forecast at 28. (eop) for the time being. Meanwhile, the liberalization of the FX market by removing administrative measures kept going. Ukraine: Key economic figures and forecasts Real Sector e 218f GDP (UAH bn) 1,465 1,587 1,989 2,383 2,88 3,11 GDP (% yoy) Domestic demand (% yoy) Terms of trade (% yoy) CPI (avg, % yoy) CPI (eop, % yoy) PPI (eop, % yoy) Real disposable income (% yoy) n/a n/a External Sector C/A balance (% of GDP) Goods export (% yoy) Goods import (% yoy) FDI (USD bn) Total external debt (% of GDP) Gross FX reserves (USD bn) Monetary Sector USD/UAH (eop) Fiscal Sector Central state deficit (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Source: State Statistics Service, National Bank of Ukraine, Ministry of Finance, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH 1

2 Moody s: Long-term FCY Sovereign Rating B2 B3 Caa1 Investment Grade (Baa3 and above) B2 B1 Source: Moody s, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH B1 B2 B3 Caa2 Caa3 Caa1 Ca Caa2 Caa3 Feb-98 Nov- Jul-3 Apr-6 Jan-9 Oct-11 Jul-14 Apr-17 1 year yield of Ukrainian Eurobond (%)* * UKRAIN 7 ¾ 9/1/27 Source: Bloomberg, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH GDP dynamics Q213 2Q214 2Q215 2Q216 2Q217 GDP growth (% yoy) Source: State Statistics Service, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH GDP growth (% qoq, s.a.) Economic Policy On 25 August, the rating agency Moody s has upgraded Ukraine s sovereign rating from Caa3 to Caa2 and changed the outlook to positive from stable. The update was based on the expected improvement of government debt dynamics on the back of significant structural reforms and the strengthening of Ukraine s external position. The last time the agency improved Ukraine s rating from Ca (negative) to Caa3 (stable) on 19 November 215 after the finalization of restructuring of USD 15 bn debt. Despite the fact that this is still much below investment grade, we consider the rating change as a positive event given the intention of Ukraine to return to the market of foreign borrowings, i.e. issue new Eurobonds. Moreover, a recent improvement of macroeconomic and foreign exchange forecasts by some investment banks is also beneficial for Ukrainian assets. Yield on Ukraine s Eurobonds dropped to the minimal value after the restructuring in late-215. Thus, we believe that the government will issue Eurobonds this fall, right after approval of the pension reform and finalization of the IMF review. Real Sector According to the preliminary GDP estimate, Ukraine s economy grew by 2.4% yoy in Q2 after +2.5% yoy in Q1, whereas in seasonally adjusted terms economy improved by.6% qoq. This has been more than we had expected, as we anticipated a bigger negative impact from the Donbas blockade. Since detailed statistics are yet not available, we have to speculate for possible growth drivers. On the income side, we estimate a 8.6% yoy growth of retail sales in Q2, while construction improved by about 21.1% yoy. On the other hand, mining declined by 5.4% yoy due to the economic blockade of Donbas. Regarding the expenditures side of GDP, given the real wage growth by 2% yoy in Q2, household consumption likely has improved significantly. Moreover, construction dynamics and growing investment demand indicate further improvement of investment dynamics. We expect a gradual slowdown of GDP growth by the end of the year on the back of base effect (GDP hiked by 2.3% yoy in Q3 216 and by 4.8% yoy in Q4 216). Thereby, we estimate economic growth of at least 1.5% yoy in 217, with upside risks to this forecast. Industrial production declined by 2.6% yoy in July owing to a downturn in the mining and energy sector. Comparing with June, industrial output was lower by 1.3% mom. Production dynamics in mining deteriorated sharply from +.7% yoy in June to -9.4% yoy (-3.2% mom). Iron ores mining suffered most (-26.8% yoy) from Donbas blockade and the decline in production by state mines. Hence, iron ores mining contracted by 7.7% yoy. Oil and gas extraction felt by 1.1% yoy. Despite the growth in manufacturing production by 2.5% compared with July 216, there was a decline by 1.3% in mom terms. Recession in coke production deepened from -4.2% yoy to % yoy reflecting lower coal extraction. Metallurgical production dropped by 4.9% yoy after 1.8% yoy growth observed the previous month. Increase of food production slowed down from 4.3% yoy to.4% yoy. The only sector that demonstrated an improvement in July was chemical industry from +1% yoy to +26.7% yoy. Meanwhile, output of the energy sector plunged by 11.9% yoy in July (-9.6% yoy in June). In Jan-Jul, industrial production felt by.7% yoy, while there was growth by 2.3% yoy a year ago. 2

3 Industrial output growth by sector (% yoy) Industrial production Mining Manufacuring (all) Utilities -6.3 of manufacturing: 1.2 Food 4.6 Light industry Woodwork and paper Coke, refined products Chemical Pharmaceutical products Rubber, plastic and mineral 7.2 Metallurgy Machine building Jan-Jul 216 to Jan-Jul 215 Jan-Jul 217 to Jan-Jul 216 Source: State Statistics Service, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Inflation (% yoy) CPI Food prices PPI Source: State Statistics Service, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Balance of Payments (USD bn) Current Account Financial Account Capital Account Balance of Payments Source: National Bank of Ukraine, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Expansion of retail sales continued to slow down from 9% yoy in June to 6.8% yoy in July. However, compared with the previous month, trade dynamics improved by 6.7% mom. Cumulatively, regarding the first seven months of the year, sales rose by 8% yoy representing one of the major drivers of GDP growth. Inflation In July, the growth of consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to.2% mom from 1.6% mom, but due to the base effect, inflation accelerated from 15.6% yoy to 15.9% yoy. Food prices continued to grow; however, the increase decelerated to +.3% mom (from +3.3% mom). In July, prices for vegetables and fruits declined under the influence of the seasonal factor (-9.2% mom and -1.4% mom respectively). Furthermore, eggs became cheaper by 9% mom on the back of high supply. By contrast, meat prices increased by 5.1% mom resulting in an overall growth of food prices. Prices for alcohol and tobacco kept growing by 1.6% mom (or +13.1% ytd). Meanwhile, clothes became cheaper by 4.4% mom due to UAH strengthening and seasonal sales. Growing tariffs for housing maintenance by 8.5% mom boosted communal payments by.6% mom. Prices for gasoline and oil declined by 1.1% mom. Producer prices rose by 1.8% mom in July, while compared to July 216, the growth amounted to 23.3% yoy (slowed down from 26.3% yoy in June). Increase of prices in the energy sector by 7% mom (due to hike in electricity tariffs) was the major driver of producer price index (PPI) growth. Prices in mining industry declined by.2% mom. Prices in coal mining and oil/gas extraction went up by.5% mom, while iron ores mining showed a price reduction by 1.3% mom. Manufacturing prices grew by.2% mom in July. Balance of Payments In June, the Current Account (C/A) deficit widened from USD 18 mn to USD 518 mn on the back of growing trade balance deficit and high dividend expropriation (USD 111 mn deficit of preliminary incomes). Food exports slow down from +3.2% yoy to +1.7% yoy and caused a deterioration of goods exports dynamics to +13.6% yoy (from +22.5% yoy in May). Meanwhile, exports of mineral products went up by 15.1% yoy, but there was a slightly higher growth rate in May (+18.7% yoy). Imports dynamics deteriorated as well, but imports growth rate outstripped the growth of exports. The increase of imports slowed down from 41.1% yoy to 3.1% yoy. Imports of mineral products were still high (+78.1% yoy) and that was associated with the higher gas supply and coal purchases. Strong demand from the agricultural sector side boosted imports of mineral products (+24.1% yoy) and machinery (+41.3% yoy) in June. The financial account posted a surplus of USD 825 mn. FDI inflow sharply improved in June (USD 63 mn), but the major share (64%) was directed to the banking sector via restructuring of debt to parent structure into authorized capital of foreign banks. Cash FCY outside the banking system continued to shrink significantly by USD 553 mn. As a result, Balance of Payments (BoP) recorded a surplus of USD 36 mn in June. For the first six month of 217, the C/A deficit grew to USD 1.6 bn versus USD 1 bn in the same period last year. Exports and imports were growing at a high rate by 24.8% yoy and by 24.3% yoy respectively. By contrast, financial account accumulated a surplus of USD 2.6 3

4 Official USD/UAH rate Source: National Bank of Ukraine, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Gross international reserves USD mn 1, , -1,5-2, -2,5-3, -3,5 NBU interventions/auctions Source: National Bank of Ukraine, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Gross international reserves UAH bn Source: National Bank of Ukraine, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH USD bn Gross FX reserves, r.h.s. CDs 25% Balances on correspondent accounts Index of interbank rates (overnight), r.h.s. 2% 15% 1% 5% % bn owing to FDI inflow (USD 1.2 bn), reduction of FCY outside the banking system (USD 1.4 bn) and external financial support. In Jan-Jun, the BoP showed a surplus of USD 1 bn. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate UAH strengthening persisted in August against the backdrop of significant tax payments that reduced LCY liquidity and forced exporters to sell more FCY. As a result, USD/UAH fell below 25.5 in late-august. Nevertheless, in the last two days of the month, USD/UAH tended to the level of 25.7 owing to growth of devaluation expectations across the exporters due to Labor Day in US (4 September) and increase in FCY purchases for dividend expropriation in September. The regulator managed to attract USD mn to reserves via FX auctions, but sold USD 44.3 mn on 31 August. Despite the positive development of the FX market, we remain cautious, and kept our USD/UAH forecast at 28. (eop) for the time being. Across the risks, we see traditional outburst of UAH liquidity by the end of the year and after the increase in pensions. Moreover, there is a lack of diversity in exports (food and metallurgical products occupy about 7% of total exports) which means that Ukraine is quite vulnerable to global price volatility. Finally, the seasonal growth of the trade balance deficit will increase pressure in the FX market in late-217. In July, gross international reserves declined by USD 176 mn to USD 17.8 bn. The outflow was due to a significant debt repayment of FCY local government bonds (USD 59.9 mn). On the other hand, reserves received USD mn from the placement of local bonds and another USD 29.8 mn from interventions. The liberalization of the FX market by removing administrative measures kept going. The NBU increased the limit on the amount of daily FX purchases for banks from.5% to 1% of the regulatory capital. Thus, banks became more flexible in managing their FX position. For banks clients, the regulator canceled limit (UAH 25, in equivalent per day) on withdrawal of FCY from current and deposit accounts through cashier s offices and ATMs. According to the National Bank, there will be no substantial effect on the FX market stability, while this step will support clients confidence to the banking sector. Significant quarterly tax payments depleted banking sector liquidity in August. As a result, Certificate of Deposits (CDs) plunged by more than UAH 2 bn to UAH 32 bn, which is the lowest volume for this year. Given the NBU requirements, there were no significant changes of the balances on correspondent accounts UAH 4-5 bn. Generally, we currently observe dynamics that is similar to the previous year significant reduction in summer and restoration by the very end of the year on the back of activation of budget spending. Meanwhile, cost of resources greatly increased. The index of interbank rates (overnight) hiked by more than 5 bp to %. Banking Sector Deposit portfolio continued to grow (+.5% mom in July) driven by the corporate sector. Owing to the seasonal factor, companies deposits in UAH increased by 2% mom and in FCY by 5.7% mom. By contrast, households slightly decreased their LCY savings in banks (-1% mom), while FCY deposits remained at a level of previous month. 4

5 UAH loans kept growing in July on the back of interest rates decline (on average interest rates declined by.9 pp mom or by 2.4 pp eop), revival of business activity and growth of real wage (+19.7% yoy in H1 17). CO LCY loans went up by 1.8% mom and PI loans by 1.6% mom. On the other hand, FCY debt shrunk in July by 1.6% mom of CO sector and by 1.4% mom of households. Banking sector losses were reduced from UAH 1.7 bn in Jan-Jun to just UAH.2 bn in Jan-Jul. The improvement was due to ongoing growth of interest incomes as well as no significant provision spending in July. Recall, banking sector profit amounted to UAH 6.9 bn in Jan-May, but significant provisioning by two large banks in June put the banking sector s financial result to the negative zone. 5

6 Risk notifications and explanations Warnings Figures on performance refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator for future results and the development of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service. This is particularly true in cases when the financial instrument, financial index or securities service has been offered for less than 12 months. In particular, this very short comparison period is not a reliable indicator for future results. Performance of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service is reduced by commissions, fees and other charges, which depend on the individual circumstances of the investor. The return on an investment in a financial instrument, a financial or securities service can rise or fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecasts of future performance are based purely on estimates and assumptions. Actual future performance may deviate from the forecast. Consequently, forecasts are not a reliable indicator for future results and the development of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service. Any information and recommendations designated as such in this publication which are contributed by analysts from RBI s subsidiary banks or from Raiffeisen Centrobank ( RCB ) are disseminated unaltered under RBI s responsibility. A description of the concepts and methods used in the preparation of financial analyses is available under: Detailed information on sensitivity analyses (procedure for checking the stability of potential assumptions made in the context of financial analyses) is available under: Disclaimer Financial Analysis Responsible for this publication: Raiffeisen Bank International AG ( RBI ) RBI is a credit institution according to 1 Banking Act (Bankwesengesetz) with the registered office Am Stadtpark 9, 13 Vienna, Austria. Raiffeisen RESEARCH is an organisational unit of RBI. Supervisory authority: As a credit institution (acc. to 1 Austrian Banking Act; Bankwesengesetz) Raiffeisen Bank International AG is subject to the supervision by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA, Finanzmarktaufsicht) and the National Bank of Austria (OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank). Additionally, RBI is subject to the supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB), which undertakes such supervision within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), which consists of the ECB and the national responsible authorities (Council Regulation (EU) No 124/213 - SSM Regulation). Unless set out herein explicitly otherwise, references to legal norms refer to norms enacted by the Republic of Austria. This document is for information purposes and may not be reproduced or distributed to other persons without RBI s permission. This document constitutes neither a solicitation of an offer nor a prospectus in the sense of the Austrian Capital Market Act (Kapitalmarktgesetz) or the Austrian Stock Exchange Act (Börsegesetz) or any other comparable foreign law. An investment decision in respect of a financial instrument, a financial product or an investment (all hereinafter product ) must be made on the basis of an approved, published prospectus or the complete documentation for such a product in question, and not on the basis of this document. This document does not constitute a personal recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments in the sense of the Austrian Securities Supervision Act (Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz). Neither this document nor any of its components shall form the basis for any kind of contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not a substitute for the necessary advice on the purchase or sale of a financial instrument, a financial product or advice on an investment. In respect of the sale or purchase of one of the above mentioned products, your banking advisor can provide individualised advice suitable for investments and financial products. This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the analysis has obtained exclusively on the basis of his/her client relationship to a person. Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, RBI deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances regarding its accuracy and completeness. In emerging markets, there may be higher settlement and custody risk as compared to markets with established infrastructure. The liquidity of stocks/financial instruments may be influenced, amongst others, by the number of market makers. Both of these circumstances can result in elevated risk in relation to the safety of investments made in consideration of the information contained in this document. The information in this publication is current as per the latter's creation date. It may be outdated by future developments, without the publication being changed. Unless otherwise expressly stated ( the analysts employed by RBI are not compensated for specific investment banking transactions. Compensation of the author or authors of this report is based (amongst other things) on the overall profitability of RBI, which includes, inter alia, earnings from investment banking and other transactions of RBI. In general, RBI forbids its analysts and persons reporting to the analysts from acquiring securities or other financial instruments of any enterprise which is covered by the analysts, unless such acquisition is authorised in advance by RBI s Compliance Department. RBI has put in place the following organisational and administrative agreements, including information barriers, to impede or prevent conflicts of interest in relation to recommendations: RBI has designated fundamentally binding confidentiality zones. These are typically units within credit institutions, which are isolated from other units by organisational measures governing the exchange of information, because compliance-relevant information is continuously or temporarily handled in these zones. Compliance-relevant information may fundamentally not leave a confidentiality zone and is to be treated as strictly confidential in internal business operations, including interaction with other units. This does not apply to the transfer of information necessary for usual business operations. Such transfer of information is limited, however, to what is absolutely necessary 6

7 (need-to-know principle). The exchange of compliance-relevant information between two confidentiality zones may only occur with the involvement of the Compliance Officer. SPECIAL REGULATIONS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND (UK): This document does not constitute either a public offer in the meaning of the Austrian Capital Market Act (Kapitalmarktgesetz; hereinafter KMG ) nor a prospectus in the meaning of the KMG or of the Austrian Stock Exchange Act (Börsegesetz). Furthermore, this document does not intend to recommend the purchase or the sale of securities or investments in the meaning of the Austrian Supervision of Securities Act (Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz). This document shall not replace the necessary advice concerning the purchase or the sale of securities or investments. For any advice concerning the purchase or the sale of securities of investments kindly contact your RAIFFEISENBANK. This publication has been either approved or issued by RBI in order to promote its investment business. Raiffeisen Bank International AG ( RBI ), London Branch is authorised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority ( FCA ). Details about the extent of its regulation by the FCA are available on request. This publication is not intended for investors who are Retail Customers within the meaning of the FCA rules and shall therefore not be distributed to them. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitute or are to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy (or sell) investments. RBI may have affected an Own Account Transaction within the meaning of FCA rules in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and/or may have a position or holding in such investments as a result. RBI may have been, or might be, acting as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of any securities mentioned in this report or in any related security. SPECIFIC RESTRICTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This document may not be transmitted to, or distributed within, the United States of America or Canada or their respective territories or possessions, nor may it be distributed to any U.S. person or any person resident in Canada, unless it is provided directly through RB International Markets (USA) LLC ( RBIM ), a U.S. registered broker-dealer, and subject to the terms set forth below. SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This research document is intended only for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards that may be applicable to research documents prepared for retail investors. This report was provided to you by RB International Markets (USA) LLC (RBIM), a U.S. registered broker-dealer, but was prepared by our non-u.s. affiliate Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI). Any order for the purchase or sale of securities covered by this report must be placed with RBIM. You can reach RBIM at 1177, Avenue of the Americas, 5th floor, New York, NY 136, phone This document was prepared outside the United States by one or more analysts who may not have been subject to rules regarding the preparation of reports and the independence of research analysts comparable to those in effect in the United States. The analyst or analysts who prepared this research (i) are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ( FINRA ) in the United States, and (ii) are not allowed to be associated persons of RBIM and are therefore not subject to FINRA regulations, including regulations related to the conduct or independence of research analysts. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of RBI only as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable by RBI, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBI or its affiliated companies or any other person as to the report s accuracy, completeness or correctness. Securities which are not registered in the United States may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to U.S. persons (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933 [ the Securities Act ]), except pursuant to an exemption under the Securities Act. This report does not constitute an offer with respect to the purchase or sale of any security within the meaning of Section 5 of the Securities Act and neither shall this report nor anything contained herein form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This report provides general information only. In Canada it may only be distributed to persons who are resident in Canada and who, by virtue of their exemption from the prospectus requirements of the applicable provincial or territorial securities laws, are entitled to conduct trades in the securities described herein. EU REGULATION NO 833/214 CONCERNING RESTRICTIVE MEASURES IN VIEW OF RUSSIA S ACTIONS DESTABILISING THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE Please note that research is done and recommendations are given only in respect of financial instruments which are not affected by the sanctions under EU regulation no 833/214 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended from time to time, i.e. financial instruments which have been issued before 1 August 214. We wish to call to your attention that the acquisition of financial instruments with a term exceeding 3 days issued after 31 July 214 is prohibited under EU regulation no 833/214 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended from time to time. No opinion is given with respect to such prohibited financial instruments. INFORMATION REGARDING THE PRINCIPALITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN: COMMISSION DIRECTIVE 23/125/EC of 22 December 23 implementing Directive 23/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards the fair presentation of investment recommendations and the disclosure of conflicts of interest has been incorporated into national law in the Principality of Liechtenstein by the Finanzanalyse- Marktmissbrauchs-Verordnung. If any term of this Disclaimer is found to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable under any applicable law, such term shall, insofar as it is severable from the remaining terms, be deemed omitted from this Disclaimer. It shall in no way affect the legality, validity or enforceability of the remaining terms. 7

8 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Raiffeisen Bank Aval on 4 September 217 Raiffeisen Bank Aval 9, Leskova Str., 111 Kyiv, Ukraine Tel Fax Call center: (free within Ukraine) Market Analysis Sergii Drobot ( ) Treasury Head: Vladimir Kravchenko ( ) FX, MM: Yuriy Grinenko ( ), Olexandr Varenytsia ( ), Nikolay Vysotsky ( ) Treasury Sales: Marina Lukashenko ( ), Alexander Korenev ( ), Tatiana Kornienko ( ) Securities: Oleg Klimas ( ), Alexey Evdokimov ( ), Daria Shatskykh ( ) Multinational Corporate Customers Head: Andreas Kettlgruber ( ) Relationship Managers: Anna Prydybailo ( ), Lesia Byba ( ) Raiffeisen Bank International CEE Research Team GLOBAL HEAD OF RESEARCH, RBI Peter Brezinschek (1517, FA*) HEAD OF ECONOMICS / FIXED INCOME /FX RESEARCH, RBI VIENNA Gunter Deuber (577, FA*) CEE MACRO, FX AND FIXED INCOME, RBI VIENNA Wolfgang Ernst (FX Strategist, 15, FA*) Stephan Imre (FI Strategist, 6757, FA*) Patrick Krizan (FI Strategist, 5644, FA*) Matthias Reith (Economist, 6741, FA*) Elena Romanova (Banking sector, 1378, FA*) Andreas Schwabe (Economist, 1389, FA*) Gintaras Shlizyhus (FI Strategist, 1343, FA*) CEE CREDIT COMPANY RESEARCH, RBI VIENNA Jörg Bayer (Head, 199, FA*) Martin Kutny (Corporates, 213, FA*) Ruslan Gadeev (RU Financials, 2216, FA*) RBI contacts: (+ extension); [name].[surname]@rbinternational.com *FA: Financial Analyst RBI NETWORK BANK CEE RESEARCH CENTRAL EUROPE (CE) CZ: Helena Horska ( , FA*), Raiffeisenbank a.s., Prague HU: Zoltán Török ( , FA*), Raiffeisen Bank Zrt., Budapest PL: Dorota Strauch ( , FA*), Raiffeisen Polbank, Warsaw SK: Robert Prega ( , FA*), Tatra banka, a.s., Bratislava SOUTH EAST EUROPE (SEE) AL: Dritan Baholli ( , FA*), Raiffeisen Bank Sh.a., Tirana BA: Ivona Zametica; ( , FA*), Raiffeisen BANK d.d., Sarajevo BG: Emil Kalchev ( , FA*), Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria, FA*) Sole-owned JSC, Sofia HR: Zrinka Zivkovic-Matijevic ( , FA*), Raiffeisenbank Austria d.d., Zagreb RO: Ionut Dumitro ( , FA*), Raiffeisen Bank S.A., Bucharest RS: Ljiljana Grubic ( , FA*), Raiffeisenbank a.d., Belgrade EASTERN EUROPE (EE) BY: Natalya Chernogorova , FA*), Priorbank JSC, Minsk RU: Anastasia Baykova ( , FA*), AO Raiffeisenbank Austria, Moscow UA: Sergii Drobot ( , FA*), Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Kyiv COMPANY EQUITY RESEARCH: RAIFFEISEN CENTROBANK AG, VIENNA Bernd Maurer (Head, , FA*) 8