2016- The Iran Upstream and Downstream Opportunity

Transcription

1 2016- The Iran Upstream and Downstream Opportunity What is needed? When is it needed? How to be successful in providing what is required. Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 1

2 Introduction Horizon Development Group Iran Iraq Mozambique Congo Gabon UK International Sales Offices Business Support IOID 33% Ofogh Energy (E&P) Ard Al Mashriq General Services Limited Horizon Development Mozambique Horizon Consulting Canada Dubai XODUS IOID JV EU-Supply IOID JV Enerserve International Inc. Malaysia SOPID 99.98% IOID Karian Kish 98% IOID USA Hong Kong Ofogh 2 MEPCO IOID Subsidiary IOID Affiliate Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 2

3 Iran Strategy With the opening of the Iranian petroleum industry to foreign investment in 2016 our aims are to: Grow our existing Iran service lines Build new capabilities through joint venture partnerships with international equipment, goods and service providers Participate in field development and redevelopment projects in Iran as an equity investor with reputable international oil companies on robust projects where we can Improve the chance of project delivery to cost, quality and schedule targets through our understanding of Iran and how to build business momentum Deliver on Iranian content targets and Iran s technology transfer objectives Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 3

4 What is needed Iran s 6 th Five Year Plan Iran s 6 th five year plan Development of a resilient economy 8% annual growth GDP Reform of state enterprises (60% GDP) and banking sector Progress in science and technology Promotion of cultural excellence Implications for the oil industry 3.7 MM bopd in 2014 rising to 4.6 MM bopd in 2020 Oil exports to rise from 1.3 MM bopd in 2015 to 2.4 MM bopd (implying a decrease in Iranian oil consumption) 0.44 MM bcpd in 2014 rising to 1 MM bcpd in 2020 (Petrochem) Priority for shared fields Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 4

5 NIOC Objectives Conference Themes 28 th and 29 th November 2015 Increase Iran production capacity and reserves in order to: Meet domestic energy demand Increase our leverage in OPEC and control of price Enter new export markets for power, energy and LNG Implement IOR and EOR projects (increase recovery) Reduce gas flaring and convert gas into higher value products- LNG and petrochem Increase efficiency of production (cost down through use of technology) Attract foreign investment Achieve 70% local content in capital expenditure Achieve 90 to 95% local content in operating expenditure Expand private sector participation in E&P but not with ownership of petroleum Utilise best available technologies and transfer these to Iran Volume objectives Cost objectives Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 5

6 Big data The Iran Opportunity What is needed? $15 Market $39.2 Billion per annum NIOC Opex NIOC New wells NIOC Current Capex NIOC Future Capex IPC Downstream Buybacks $5 $3 Current Market > $ 10.5 billion per annum $2 $8 Capital IOCs or EPCICF Upstream Technologies 3D seismic Reservoir, network and process modelling Smart wells Rotating equipment and control systems Environmental best practise- gas flaring reduction, produced water handling, de-salting Brown field refurbishment and best practise M&O Programme and supply chain management Petrochemical Technologies Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 6

7 The Iran Opportunity When is it needed? When will it happen? Petrochem- Now NIOC capex & opex- when the banking system allows Iran Petroleum Contracts- >2 years IPC Terms?????? IOC and Iranian JV pre-qualification Tender IPC Negotiations, agreement on MDP, PEP etc. Iran oversight- NIOC BoD, Contracts Supervision Committee, Central Bank Award Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 7

8 The Iran Opportunity bn bbls STOIIP and 230 TCF GIIP Brown Field Gas 1% 17 bn boe gas 28 bn boe 11 bn bbls oil Green Field Gas 99% Offshore Gas 47% Onshore Gas 14% Onshore Oil 25% Offshore Oil 14% Brown Field Oil 58% Green Field Oil Green Field Oil 42% Brown Field Oil Green Field Gas Brown Field Gas Onshore Oil Offshore Oil Onshore Gas Offshore Gas Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 8

9 Million Barrels of Oil per Day The Iran Opportunity When will it happen? Iran Oil Production- Existing Fields, Shut in Wells, New Wells, Buybacks and IPC Oil Projects 7 Negotiate Execute Operate Buy back and IPC Projects Infill wells and 155 replacement wells per annum Shut-in production Existing wells- 8% decline % annual decline Shut-in Wells 2016 wells 2017 wells 2018 wells 2019 wells 2020 wells 2021 wells 2022 wells 2023 wells 2024 wells Yadavaran phase 1 Yadavaran phase 2 Yadavaran phase 3 Azar phase 1 North Yaran South Yaran North Azadegan phase 1 North Azadegan phase 2 South Azadegan phase 1 South Azadegan phase 2 South Pars (oil layer) phase 1 Changuleh Darquain Phase 3- Fahliyan Golshan Ferdowski Jufair Sephr Susangerd Sohrab Arvand Ab-Teymur Ahwaz Bangestan Mansuri- Bangestan Foroozan Sorosh Norooz Dorood Salman Aban Payday West Paydar- Asmari West Paydar- Bangestan Dana Cheshmeh-Khosh Year Dalpari Naft Shahr Sumar Deholoran Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 9

10 Exogenous The Iran Opportunity-2016 How to be successful in providing what is required? Risks and Issues Banking System Sanctions Snap back UN, US & EU Compliance Terms and NIOC capacity to negotiate ROI- South Pars 6-8 and Darquain Phase 2 were out of the money Getting your client to understand the problem, the need and the solution Business momentum Vested interests UN & EU Compliance Not and issue Enablers to successful entry Capital Technology transfer Project and Supply Chain Management Environmental Issues Gas flaring and produced water disposal Local partner- >51% local content with a PJSC & >95% during production operations Stakeholder Management Iran wants you! Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 10

11 The Iran Opportunity-2016 Key barriers to entry Doing Business Ranking 118 of 183 Resolving Insolvency Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit Registering property Getting Electricity Construction Permits Starting a Business World Bank, 2016 Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 11

12 The Iran Opportunity EU-Supply & IOID- Iran Complete Tender Management How best can a foreign investor working in Iran ensure they do not contract with a sanctioned individual or entity and so avoid being fined by the US government, UN or EU for working with them? Check up on what you can check up on, keep your records, be able to make your case, said a former US sanctions negotiator and that means using Iran s Complete Tender Management (ICTM). Your gateway to Iran Date 18/05/2016 Slide 12