Following the resignation of Jan Arnold as MD, Gerry Hough who has served the company as FD and GM, has been appointed in his stead.
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1 BidVest Namibia Ltd 1H17: Blood on the floor Management was bold enough to state that these are the worst results that the group has ever churned. Despite what looks like blood on the floor, the group managed to grow revenue by 6.2% to N$1,956 billion. (i) Gross profit declined by 10.5% to N$ million; (ii) The Trading profit of N$ million is 81.7% lower compared to that of 1H16; (iii) Operating profit declined from N$ million in 1H16 to N$ million in 1H17; (iv) PBT stood at N$ million, whereas it was N$ million in 1H16; (v) The above declines cascaded into PAT, which fell by 77.3% to N$ million BIDFISH 22 March 2017 Company BidVest Namibia NSX Ticker BVN Sector General Industrials Current Price 779cps Price to end of FY17* 1,031cps Recommendation SELL *Based on our earlier valuation The Horse Mackerel size is reported to have been smaller and there was also a decline in catch rates. The company had to rely on high percentage of third party quotas and those were selling at high prices leading to a decline in trading profit. On the other hand, the economic climate depressed the product selling prices in the markets. Owing to the quota, management has decided to dispose of one of the vessels to avoid her under-utilization. The pilchards resource is said to have been under pressure and no canning happened during the six months period under review. Aquaculture did not do any better as the temperature turned out to be cooler, thereby inhibiting food conversion ratio and growth. For the first time, the Angola operation is reported to have done well due to local fishmeal and better international fish oil prices. Following the resignation of Jan Arnold as MD, Gerry Hough who has served the company as FD and GM, has been appointed in his stead. The over-exploitation of the Horse Mackerel resources in both Namibia and Angola remain a concern as well the decline in fish sizes. Management is exploring the possibility of forging new partnership with the purpose of securing more resources. Furthermore, management is working on strategies so as to make the company less reliant on third party quota. Pilchards resource stability coupled with reduced TAC and quota is a concern. However, on the positive side the Glenryck brand is expected to support growth via the market focus which will start in South Africa before it gets rolled over to other countries. The Angolan market is expected to put in improved performance, however the currency shortage issues remain a concern. The Oyster aquaculture business, is reported to be in need of a more profitable solution, while the Mozambican operation is only expected to become cash positive from year one. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIALS SERVICES AND PRODUCTS Cecil Nurse: 1H17 is reported to have been tough for this division and margins were under pressure due to unavailability of large projects. Kolok: Kolok is said to have had tough time due to the fierce competition in the sector. Minolco: It is reported that Minolco put in good performance primarily on the back of internal rentals rather than outright sales to outside parties.
2 Plumblink: Although Plumblink is still new in the Namibian market, management reports that it has done extremely well despite the competitive nature of the market due to its being a one-stop-shop for buyers of its products. Plumblink will expand its foot print by opening a branch in Swakopmund. Rennies Travel: Performance in 1H17 are in line with in 1H16, however the overrides are still outstanding from the major airlines. Steiner: Performance was in line with that of the prior year. Growth has been recorded in hygiene rental customer base and the pest control services. Voltex: Voltex is a small company in the BidVest group, the losses it has been making have been having an adverse impact on group profitability. It recorded a profit loss of N$10m in 2016 and for the umpteenth time, Voltex is reported to be struggling and the poor performance is ascribed to poor rainfall and water shortage which has adversely affected the building and construction industry. The turnaround strategy is still continuing. Waltons: Positive revenue growth was recorded and new branches are being opened to increase footprint and gain a better reach to customers. Owing to the government spending cut and the dominant role of the government in the economy, the subsidiaries whose operations are construction industry related are being adversely affected. Notwithstanding that, management is taking a critical look at all the subsidiaries to come up with strategies that can make those more competitive and preferred suppliers. Best fit companies are being considered so as to support acquisitive growth. FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS All the divisions went through challenging times as there were virtually no projects. As a result, the businesses have been streamlined to ensure more efficiency. Activities in the oil and gas industry were mute and expected to remain muted in the short term. Manica is well positioned to be an excellent all-in-one service provider for any large project and a drive is underway to secure projects. FOOD AND DISTRIBUTION The confluence of tough economic times and high operational costs have manifested themselves in lower bottom line in Taeuber & Corssen. Claims have been identified as an area of concern. The quota chicken import was a challenge to the Caterplus business and alternative protein sources are being explored. Taeuber & Corssen will focus on mitigating the issues mentioned above: cost containment and claims. Caterplus will focus on cleaning out old stock and reducing claims. AUTOMOTIVE New vehicle sales have been dwindling in Namibia and invariably had a bearing on the division s sales numbers. Generally, the customers seem to starting to resort to pre-owned vehicles. The Walvis Bay branch is now under new management. Owing to the MD resignation, McCarthy is overseeing the operations and is kept up to date of the daily activities by the Automotive Division s FD. Management does not expect a recovery in the new vehicle sales market soon and is more positive about the pre-owned vehicles market. The Walvis Bay branch is now under new management and is expected to recover.
3 OPERATIONAL REVIEW Despite its woes, BidFish was the second highest contributor to revenue. The woes included the fall in Horse Mackerel price by 11.2%; the fact that the company was more reliant upon quota sourced from third parties whereas normally it had enough quota of its own. In the past, in the worst situation the split was 50%:50%. Relying on third party quota pushed up the operating cost. Pilchard resource is currently a cause of concern. Management is of the opinion that the quota which has been allocated to the group can be caught with only one vessel. Therefore, the group is planning to dispose of one of the vessels that will be rendered redundant. BidFish trading profit was negative at N$9,214 million. Food & Distribution was the highest contributor to revenue, however it also recorded a trading loss which stood at N$2,134 million. Factors that accounted for the trading loss included expiries and returns of products. We hailed the acquisition of Novel Ford and thought it was going to be the torchbearer. The Automotive division, made the third highest contribution to revenue and had the highest trading profit margins, 4.21%. Management holds the view that the division s performance was below expectations. Table 1: Revenue and Trading Profit for 1H17 1H16 1H17 %Chg FY16 Automotive , Bidfish , Freight & Logistics , Food & Distribution , Comm.,Indus.Services & Product , Bidcorp , Group Net Revenue , TRADING PROFIT Automotive , Bidfish , Freight & Logistics , Food & Distribution , Comm.,Indus.Services & Product , Corporate ,3 511 Group Trading Profit , Trading Profit Margins[%] Automotive 5,78 4,21 5,64 Bidfish 13,95-1,74 18,13 Freight & Logistics 3,04 3,02 3,83 Food & Distribution 2,60-0,33 1,63 Comm.,Indus.Services & Product 5,68 3,80 4,67 Group Trading Margins 6,45 1,11 7,64 Source: BVN, NEB SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS GRAPH 1: SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS Source: Bloomberg
4 1H17 NUMBERS AND OUR PROJECTIONS FOR 2017 Table 3: Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income Consolidated Income Statement 1H16 1H17 FY16 NEB FY17 Revenue COGS Gross Profit Other Income Operating Expenses Trading Profit Net Capital Items Operating Profit Net Finance Income Finance Income Finance Charges Share of JV Share of associates Profit Before Taxation Taxation Profit for the period Other Comprehensive Income Actuarial valuation of post-retirement medical obligations Movement on translation of foreign subsidiary Total Comprehensive Income Profit Attributable to: Shareholders of the company Non-controling interest Comprehensive Income Attributable to: Shareholders of the company Non-controling interest Shares in issue[1000] Total Weighted Basic Earnings per share[cents] 46,1 9,6 86,9 136,5 Headline Earnings per share[cents] 44,2 9,7 86,2 103,2 Dividend per share[cents] 20,0 4,0 38,0 Headline earnings Profit attributable to shareholders of the company Net profit on disposal of PPE and intangibl PPE Impairment of intangible assets Non-controling interest Headline earnings Source: BVN, NEB * The numbers in Table 3 are based on our earlier project and the performance in 1H17 suggests that these numbers were optimistic
5 CONCLUDING REMARKS In spite of the diversification efforts which are being made by management at group level, BVN is currently facing some headwinds. After the resignations of Jan Arnold and Hans-Werner Timke, the MD of the Automotive division has done likewise. We are told that the reason why Voltex has been making losses can be ascribed to management at division level. Given that, at group level, management is dynamic and young and look to be prepared to embrace change, we find it hard to comprehend as to why the divisional heads are opting to pack their bags. These developments have triggered a barrage of questions in our mind and we are yet to reach a level of comfort. For instance, we would want to answer the following question: What is a pertinent or meaningful diversification for BidVest? Based on our reading of management s drive to grow the business through diversification and acquisition, hitherto we have held a positive outlook. In our earlier report, this perspective led to our valuation of 1031cps for Subsequent to the release of our report, the Bidvest share price kept on falling and is currently at 779cps, which is virtually the net tangible asset value per share of 727cps. Although the net asset value per share is currently 863cps, given the way how things have been punning out to be, is it really worth the investors while to hang onto the shares? At the present moment, the only supporting factor which has absolute certainty is the regulatory backwind of increasing the local asset requirement to 45%. Hence, we are prompted to change our stance from a HOLD to a SELL. This publication has been issued by Namibia Equity Brokers (Pty) Limited. It is confidential and issued for the information of clients only. It shall not be reproduced in whole or in part without our permission. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which and persons whom we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy, completeness or otherwise. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. No information contained herein, no opinion expressed and no recommendation made constitutes a representation by us or a solicitation for the purchase of securities mentioned herein and we have no responsibility whatsoever arising here from or in consequence hereof. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors may get back less than they invested. The inventories of Namibia Equity Brokers (Pty) Limited and its employees may from time to time include securities mentioned herein.
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