Indonesia Macroeconomic Overview
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- Emil George
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2 Indonesia Macroeconomic Overview World Bank anticipates Indonesia s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2017 and 5.5% in 2018 and 2019 supported by resilient domestic demand and improvement in private investment IMF: In 2017, growth is expected to rise modestly to 5.1%, led by a gradual pickup in private investment in response to stronger commodity prices, low interest rates, and a recovery in external demand on the back of a pickup in global growth and trade Bank Indonesia reaffirmed its estimate of 5.0% - 5.4% growth rate in the economy for 2017 Overall, we see the cautious early signs of green shoots where Consumer Confidence Index remain robust at the end of Q with income boosted by Tunjangan Hari Raya, end of elections, S&P rating upgrade for Indonesia (the last of the three key credit ratings agencies to give investment grade status). % Gross Domestic Product Slide 2 - August 2017 Source: Indonesia Statistic
3 Indonesian Cement Industry 2017 Landscape Lafarge Indonesia 1.5 mio ton 0.2 mio ton (g) Indocement 24.9 mio ton Semen Bosowa 4.4 mio ton 3.0 mio ton (g) Anhui Conch 4.5 mio ton Semen Indonesia 7.2 mio ton 0.9 mio ton (g) Semen Baturaja 2.2 mio ton 0.7 mio ton (g) Merah Putih 4.9 mio ton 2.8 mio ton (g) Siam Cement 1.8 mio ton Holcim Indonesia 12.1 mio ton Slide 3 - August 2017 Source: ASI and internal estimation Jui Shin 1.8 mio ton Semen Indonesia 15.2 mio ton 0.7 mio ton (g) Semen Puger 0.5 mio ton Panasia 1.8 mio ton Semen Indonesia 7.4 mio ton Semen Kupang/Merah Putih 0.4 mio ton Total Cement Capacity in 2017 of 103.8* mio tons, from 98.5 mio tons in 2016 Anhui Conch 2.2 mio ton (g) * Total capacity in 2017 includes Finished Mills from Hao Han (0.6 mt), Semen Jakarta (1.5 mt), and Sun Fook (0.6 mt)
4 Demand/Supply Outlook: Oversupply Market in mio Tons CAGR Supply : 4.0% CAGR Demand : 6.5% CAGR Supply : 2.4% CAGR Demand : 6.8% 200 Mio Ton 100% % 57.0% 58.0% 63.6% Export 68.3% 71.2% 76.1% 84.8% 73.7% % % % % % Consumption per capita = 243 kg Vietnam = 611 kg Thailand = 443 kg Malaysia = 751 kg Philippines = 240 kg Singapore = 1,380 kg Brunei = 899 kg Import % 64.7% 62.6% 61.8% 61.5% % % Export 74.4% % % Consumption per capita = 396kg % % 60% 40% 20% 0% % 5.2% 1.8% 9.7% 4.2% 1.5% 7.0% 11.4% 0.9% 6.2% 17.7% 14.5% 5.5% 3.3% 3.5% -0.6% 4.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Demand Growth Domestic Demand Domestic Supply Utilization -20% Slide 4 - August 2017
5 15.2% % % Cement demand shows down trend 4 years in a row as multiplier effect of infrastructure spending has not been realized Source: Indonesian Cement Association, BPS Statistic 9.7% % 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.7% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8% 1.5% 11.4% 6.3% 6.0% 17.7% % % 6.2% 6.0% 5.6% 4.6% 5.0% 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 6.2% 5.5% 3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.9% -0.6% -1.3% H H Mortgage Rate % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% BCA - KPR Slide 5 - August 2017 Domestic Demand (mio T) GDP Growth Demand Growth Cement Demand signs bottom up amid strong trade balance signal 6.2% Weighted by relatively high mortgage rate 17.7% 14.5% 7.5% 5.5% 9.5% 10.5% 3.3% 3.5% 10.0% 4.8% % Demand Growth 20% 15% 10% 5% -0.6% 0% -1.3% 0.0% BI Rate -5% Bio USD % Support by positive trade balance 17.7% 14.5% 5.5% 3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% -1.3% H Non Oil and Gas Cement Demand Oil and Gas H % Demand Growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%
6 Heavy Equipment Order may Reach 20% Higher YoY Confirmation of commodity sector recovery and infrastructure strong progress Heavy equipment order is a leading indicator for cement demand Slide 6 - August 2017 Source: HINABI, Indonesian Heavy Equipment Association; Indonesian Cement Association
7 Domestic Consumption Growth & Market Share per region YTD June 2017 Source: Indonesia Cement Association Market Growth: Note: >15% - Lebaran season in June 2017 corrected the market growth +4.1% in Ytd May 10-15% Contrary, prior year Lebaran that hit the 5-10% market was occurred in July In general Western Part of Java still 0-5% having sluggish demand while mid and east significantly boosted by infra project. - Outside java is mixture to slightly on <0% corrective growth (commodity recovery still not translated to demand). Slide 7 - August 2017 Source: Indonesia Statistic (processed)
8 Java is still key market area in delivering strong results Geographic composition of Sales 76% 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 70% 27% 26% 28% 27% 30% 26% 29% 28% 28% 27% 26% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% 69% 25% 24% 68% 67% 73% 74% 75% 72% 73% 70% 74% 71% 72% 72% 73% 74% Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4'15 FY 2015 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 FY 2016 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 23% 22% Java (LHS) Outside Java (RHS) On absolute terms Java remains the dominant factors in delivering strong results Indocement is able to protect home market and maintain stable sales, however declining sales from outside Java brought down total domestic sales Slide 8 - August 2017
9 The importance of bulk sales continues In thousand tons 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-3,517 3,931 20% 21% 14,459 14,568 Bag/Bulk sales composition Jan - Dec 4,109 3,860 12,943 12,518 1,838 1,740 6,068 5, H1 '16 H1 '17 Bag 24% Portion of bag sales is lower than bulk due to declining sales especially in outside Java for H Composition of bag vs bulk sales in H is 77.0% vs. 23.0% Indocement positions itself as a reliable partner for infrastructure projects providing quality bulk cement and concrete at timely delivery 24% Bulk Stronger focus on increasing bulk sales High bulk volume in Jakarta Indocement benefits from proximity to Jakarta 23% 23% Slide 9 - August 2017
10 Continuous focus on cost control with disciplined spending on promotional activities Composition of Manufacturing Cost as % Fixed Cost Control bio IDR Trend 50% 40% 44.4% 1,095-7% % 1,027 +6% 1,200 1, % 20% 10% 0% 23.2% 21.0% 40.9% 11.4% 25.7% 23.1% 10.3% 25.4% 10.5% 42.8% 21.3% Raw Materials Direct labor Fuel and Power Man. Overhead Jan - Jun 2015 Jan - Jun 2016 Jan - Jun Increase in coal price caused increase in fuel and power cost due to gain in running the most efficient kilns. Manufacturing Overhead portion decreases due to cost savings activities including repairs. Ramping up of P14 kiln in H1 already starts to deliver savings; full savings expected starting in H2. Increase in SG&A relates to additional cost to support end user program and Rajawali promotion. +7% H H H Selling Expense -6% +2% G&A Expense Slide 10 - August 2017
11 Continue in Cost Leadership to maintain a decent margin in H New market entrants leading to higher competition and pricing pressure but Indocement maintains better margin compared to peers INTP Gross margin development INTP EBITDA margin development 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 34.5% 34.2% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 22.3% 22.0% 20.0% 43.2% 41.8% 41.7% 41.2% 20.0% 15.0% 33.9% 31.8% 31.1% 30.3% 10.0% 0.0% 44.5% 45.0% 44.6% 44.4% Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 34.8% 34.5% 34.0% 33.8% Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Continue competitive environment, Management focus on taking respective initiatives early on during the year: Operational Excellence program Fixed cost reduction program Managing efficient kiln utilization Slide 11 - August 2017
12 Financial Result Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income Description H H Variance Bio IDR Bio IDR Bio IDR % Total Sales Volume (thousand tons) 7,932 8, % Domestic Sales Volume (thousand tons) 7,829 7, % Export Sales Volume (thousand tons) % Net Revenues 6, , , % Cost of Revenues -4, , % GROSS PROFIT 2, , % % of Net Revenues 34.2% 41.8% Operating Expenses -1, , % Other Operating Income - Net % OPERATING INCOME , , % % of Net Revenues 13.7% 25.4% EBITDA 1, , , % % of Net Revenues 22.0% 31.8% Finance Income - Net % Equity in Net Earnings of Associated Companies - Net % INCOME BEFORE FINAL TAX AND INCOME TAX EXPENSE 1, , , % Final Tax % INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAX EXPENSE 1, , , % Income Tax Benefit (Expense) - Net % INCOME FOR THE PERIOD , , % Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) for the Period, Net of Tax % TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOME FOR THE PERIOD , , % Operating margin reduction from 25.4% to 13.7% contributed by lower revenues by -15.5% due to strong competition on weak demand situation which impact was reduced by cost efficiency in production (+4.5%) amidst cost pull from current soaring coal price. Active end user program initiated at beginning of year to support the volume performance. Slide 12 - August 2017
13 Balance Sheet Consolidated Statement of Financial Position Outside dividend payment impact, inventories balance increased to anticipate peak volume in 2 nd half. Inline with production, payable balance slightly higher. Increase in Non-Current Assets compare to same period last year was mainly due to spending in capital expenditures. Dividend Payment history: Slide 13 - August 2017
14 Our P14 in Citeureup has already started A new Tiga Roda cement plant, with annual installed production capacity of 4.4 million cement at Citeureup, Bogor - Indonesia. IDR ~6 Trillion investment. A production line that equipped with modern and energy efficient facility. Designed to utilized alternative fuels and materials and owns state-of-art emission system and environment-friendly production facility with bag filter as effective dust filter in all production lines. Kiln line already fully operational starting end of last year and savings already started with full benefit expected in H2. Currently its benefit USD 4-5/t. Slide 14 - August 2017
15 Capacity Expansion & Future Investment to participate in Industry Growth Full Operation in 2017 with combined cycle operation of 1 unit of aero derivative gas turbine (ADGT) to supply 73 MW (including power supply from Steam Turbine to Citeureup factory); Investment cost: IDR Bio and started operation in Oct, 2016 Full Operation in 2017 for 1 Cement and packing floating terminal in Pontianak to strengthen our bag and bulk cement supply in West Kalimantan area Investment Cost: IDR 56.3 Bio and started operation in May 2016 Future Projects: 2 greenfield or brownfield project with each capacity of 2.5 mio ton: one in Central Java (under final Supreme Court appeal process for Environmental permit issues) and one in outside Java: IDR 8.9 Trillion Study for some potential Cement Terminals in Sumatra: IDR Bio Cement tank 300 Ton installed in Pontianak Terminal Loading conveyor to truck Million Tons mt mt mt mt mt Slide 15 - August /2025 Strategically well positioned to capitalize on further demand
16 Ready Mix Concrete and Aggregates Expansion Strengthening Ready-Mix Concrete business particularly highgrade quality in order to meet the increase demand of infrastructure development in Indonesia. Current focus is on infrastructure projects and its domino-effect on development of residential, industrial area and high rise building. H sales volume decreased by 27.1% due to slowing down construction activities across Indonesia and lower economic growth in general as well as heavy competition. Pionirbeton, a subsidiary, is one of market leaders in RMC business. Secured concrete market by signing exclusive and long-term contract of andesite and sand supply from Ketapang and Belitung. 4,800 4,500 4,200 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1, m3 RMC Sales Volume 4,430 3,947 3,517 3,377 2,988 2,429 1,483 1,221 1, AGG Sales Volume Slide 16 - August 2017
17 CEMENT MARKET Outlook for 2017 Market Condition National cement consumption growth started to turn positive and expected to grow around 4-5% in 2017 (versus negative growth of -0.6% in 2016) Consumption in 2017 will increase in line with higher Government s projects and some commercial and residential projects after Tax Amnesty, decrease of mortgage (KPR) interest, loosened regulation on LTV ratio, second mortgage availability for off-plan properties, reduction in tax for transfer of ownership, clarity in property ownership by foreigners, and simplification of regulations. Strong concrete and bulk cement demand anticipated in outside Java and more spread area in Java due to faster Government s infrastructure projects in 2017 Expansion in Cement Terminals and Batching Plants are required. Over supply of about 36.9 mio tons in 2016 and up to 39.7 mio tons in 2017 will change the cement market outlook and we expect the continuing tight competition among 19 brands from 15 players (from 9 brands and 9 players previously) Recent hike in coal price will curb the potential further drop in prices in near future and possible consolidation. Coal price has slide back to $75.5 in June 2017 from peak of $102 in December 2016 however, remain considerably higher than last year. Slide 17 - August 2017
18 Indocement s Action Plan in 2017 Run P14 production (10,000 tpd) in full-swing in 2017 will help to reduce further production cost by about USD 4-5 per ton Optimize product mix from 13 line of cement production will bring competitive advantages of Indocement to introduce different types of cement (OPC, PCC, PPC, TR Rapid, PCC Industry and future products- slag cement) Clinker exports and domestic clinker sales will be done more during oversupply. (2016: cement export 72,000 ton, clinker export 319,000 ton; target 2017: cement export 168,000 ton, clinker export 333,000 ton) Strengthen our Pull demand in bagged cement segment from end-user customers and Retail/ Distribution channel to strengthen our Brand, TIGA RODA Cement Using RAJAWALI brand as fighting brand to get some volume for customer who perceive cement as commodity product and in low-price cement segment - in competition with 2 nd tier brands out of new players Develop new business line of prefabricated affordable housing products Rumah Pabrikasi Indocement through new subsidiary Strong balance sheet with no gearing is an important winning factor in competition and in future consolidation phase if happen in near future Slide 18 - August 2017
19 New Brand of RAJAWALI as fighting brand Through its existing distribution channel, Rajawali was initially launched on Oct 10, 2016 with presence in three cities in 2016 and already available in 30 cities, like: Jakarta, 15 cities in West Java, 6 Cities in Banten, and 8 Cities in Central Java. Quality assurance from Indocement. Produced with Indocement standard technology, equipment and materials, Semen Rajawali has a very consistent quality. Not easy to crack. Specially designed for easy builders as it suitable for any building type from structural work, plaster, acian and others. Manufactured with environmentally friendly technology. Affordable prices! Video: Slide 19 - August 2017 Sticky, Strong & More environmentally cement product!!!
20 End User Program Slide 20 - August 2017 source:
21 42 Years Building Indonesia KOKOH THANK YOU
22 Important Notice Disclaimer This presentation contains general information which provided without any representations or warranties, express or implied and does not constitute or form part of, and is not made in connection with, any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation, recommendation, or invitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract, commitment, or investment decision whatsoever. Terms of Use Slides prepared in this presentation are strictly confidential and have been prepared as a support for verbal discussions only. The information contained in this presentation is being presented to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part. You acknowledge that, because of the limited nature of communication through our presentation features, any assistance you may receive using any such features is likely to be incomplete and may even be misleading. Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on the expectation or forecast about future events, formed by Indocement after reviewing existing data and research. Such statements involve known and unknown risks including factors such as: (i)global macroeconomic and geopolitical situations; (ii) Indonesia macroeconomic and geopolitical situation; (iii) Competition from incumbents and new players; (iii) Changes in laws, regulation, taxation, or accounting standards or practices; (iv) Acquisitions, divestitures, and various business opportunities that we may pursue; (v)force majeure; (vi)labor unrest or other similar situations; (vii)outcome of pending or threatened litigation Indocement does not give assurance that such outcome will be attained. If you have any specific questions about any legal, financial or tax matter, you should consult your lawyer/financial/tax Consultant or other professional legal services provider. For further information please contact PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. Wisma Indocemen, 8th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav Jakarta 12910, Indonesia Phone : investor.relations@indocement.co.id. 2017, PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. All rights reserved. Slide 22 - August 2017
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