CFA Society New Mexico. Bob Schmidt Manager, Brandes Institute

Transcription

1 CFA Society New Mexico Bob Schmidt Manager, Brandes Institute

2 Are A & B Different Shades of Gray? Source: Edward H. Adelson,

3 Are A & B Different Shades of Gray? Source: Edward H. Adelson,

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7 Prospect Theory & Framing System 1 (fast thinking, taking short cuts) operates automatically little or no effort no sense of voluntary control 6

8 Prospect Theory & Framing System 2 (slow thinking) effortful mental activities agency, choice and concentration Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

9 Prospect Theory Mental Value Fear = 2xGreed Losses Gains Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

10 A Hypothetical Portfolio Grows consistently for 20 years Low standard deviation The Bumble Corp. The State of Bliss 9

11 Benefits of a Long-Term Focus Paper Gains = 1 positive emotional unit Paper Losses = 2 negative emotional units How often do you look? Chance of seeing a Paper Gain Once a year 93% Every quarter 77% Every month 67% Every day 54% Every hour 51.3% Every minute 50.17% Every second 50.02% Source: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets. 2nd Ed. New York: Thomson, pages This hypothetical example is intended for illustrative purposes only. It does not reflect the performance of any specific investment vehicle. Actual results will vary. 10

12 Wheel of Investor Emotion Source: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets. 2nd Ed. New York: Thomson, pages This hypothetical example is intended for illustrative purposes only. It does not reflect the performance of any specific investment vehicle. Actual results will vary. 11

13 More News = More Information? Business Week, August 13, 1979 The Death of Equities The Rebirth of Equities. Business Week, March 9, 1983 Bear Trap: Will Tech Stocks Sink the Rest of the Market and the Economy? Bailout Fails; Stocks Plunge. The New York Times, September 29, 2008 U.S. News & World Report, March 26, 2001 Bubble Fears as U.S. Stocks Break Records Get Rich.com Financial Times, November 20, 2013 Time, September 27,

14 Extrapolation In 1977, at the time of Elvis Presley s death, there were 170 Elvis impersonators worldwide. In 2000, there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators. At this rate of growth, statisticians predicted that by 2019, Elvis impersonators would make up 1/3 of the world s population. Source: Freemovement.org, November 13,

15 Framing 14

16 Attention Response & Framing S&P 500 Annual Returns ( ) Average Annual Return 11.4% Source: Prof. Robert Shiller data. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index. 15

17 % Return Attention Response & Framing S&P 500 Index ( ) Calendar Years With Declines in Excess of 10% % -22% -37% % -26% % % -44% -35% -11% -13% 10 Source: Prof. Robert Shiller data. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. You may not invest directly in an index. Does not represent all market declines of 10% or more. 16

18 Redefining Risk and Return Meet Dr. Eben Otuteye and Mohammad Siddiquee Volatility is not a surprise. Volatility is neutral; it is just part of what the asset is. But you can turn it into risk if you mishandle it. Volatility Risk Source: Otuteye, Eben and Mohammad Siddiquee. Redefining Risk and Return in Common Stock Investment from a Value Perspective. 17

19 Potential Return % Risk Perceptions More Risk Doesn t Necessarily Mean More Return Low Low to Medium Medium Medium to High High Risk Level Source: Inspired by Marks, Howard. The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor. New York: Columbia University Press Hypothetical illustration does not represent any particular investment. Actual results will vary. 18

20 Range of Total Returns (Ann.) % Risk Tends to Diminish Over Time Range of Total Returns for U.S. Stocks Over Various Rolling Periods ( ) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 2 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, as of 12/31/15. U.S. stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index. Rolling periods represent a series of overlapping, smaller time periods within a single, longer-term time period. For example, over a 20-year period, there is one 20-year rolling period, eleven 10-year rolling periods, sixteen 5-year rolling periods, and so forth. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. One cannot invest directly in an index. 19

21 Risk and Return: Ask Your Clients a Simple Question What do you expect returns to be next year for the stock market? Give me a range of outcomes. Do they include a negative number in their range? If not, have a conversation about expectations and short-term returns. Source: Jay Mooreland, 20

22 Avoid This Behavioral Pattern! Source: Carl Richards at 21

23 Investment Process: The Essentials 22

24 Investment Policy Statement IPS Features and Implications 1. Client description (asset size, cash flow profile, liabilities) 2. Duties (asset class selection, manager selection, fee negotiation, monitoring) 3. Objectives (total vs. relative, real vs. nominal, risk objectives, fees/expenses) 4. Constraints (liquidity, horizon, taxes, legal, restrictions) 5. Asset allocation targets (asset class selection, acceptable styles, number of classes) 6. Rebalancing guidelines (frequency and rules) 7. Schedule for reviews (frequency and access) Source: CFA Institute report, Manager Selection by Scott D. Stewart, CFA. Dec

25 How Do We Make Decisions? Decision Rights Source: Jim Ware, CFA and Brian Singer, CFA. Decision Making: A Process Check for Investment Firms.

26 Evaluating Success Source: Russo, J. Edward and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Winning Decisions: Getting It Right The First Time. 1 st ed. New York: Random House

27 Investor Stress Management Plan (ISMAP) 1. Positive activities they control 2. Investment plan 3. Sign it Source: MarketPsych and Brandes Investment Partners 26

28 Recognizing Potential Biases in Decision-Making Hiring or firing managers Adopting strategies/approaches that have had recent success or abandoning strategies that have fared poorly recently Confusing skill with luck when evaluating managers Looking at high returns without considering risks Source: Bob Maynard. Behavioral Finance: Pitfalls and Prevention for Plan Sponsors. Brandes Institute

29 Recognizing Potential Biases in Decision-Making Evaluating the products without evaluating the firm Avoiding high-risk investments because of perceived volatility Relying on skill in selecting a better-than-average manager Decisions where leverage is involved Source: Bob Maynard. Behavioral Finance: Pitfalls and Prevention for Plan Sponsors. Brandes Institute

30 Preventing Bias From Affecting Decisions Explanations in simple language Appoint a devil s advocate Establish and perpetuate a culture of debate Use quantitative evidence wisely Source: Bob Maynard. Behavioral Finance: Pitfalls and Prevention for Plan Sponsors. Brandes Institute

31 Preventing Bias From Affecting Decisions Create and follow a comprehensive investment policy Focus on the long term Pre mortem Document successes and failures Source: Bob Maynard. Behavioral Finance: Pitfalls and Prevention for Plan Sponsors. Brandes Institute

32 CFA Institute Recommendations In What Areas Should Investment Committees Focus? Review staff capabilities Set clear objectives and short-term risk tolerances Provide stabilizing, rational consistency Maintain stable committee with terms of 5 to 6 years, renewable once Achieve average manager tenure of 10 years or more Source: CFA Institute report, Manager Selection by Scott D. Stewart, CFA. Dec

33 In Closing Understand how we make decisions and which system we use Be aware of specific biases and use tools/tactics to help counter them Think long term Seek additional resources if needed

34 VALUE SPECIALISTS SINCE 1974 CALL BRANDES NOW BRANDES.COM El Camino Real Suite 600 P.O. Box San Diego, CA

35 Disclosures Robert Maynard is a member of the Brandes Institute Advisory Board. The S&P 500 Index with gross dividends measures equity performance of 500 leading companies in industries of the U.S. economy. The information provided in this material should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that any security transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance discussed herein. Portfolio holdings and allocations are subject to change at any time and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell particular securities. Strategies discussed herein are subject to change at any time by the investment manager in its discretion due to market conditions or opportunities. International and emerging markets investing is subject to certain risks such as currency fluctuation and social and political changes; such risks may result in greater share price volatility. Unlike bonds issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government or its agencies, stocks and other bonds are not backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. Stock and bond prices will experience market fluctuations. Please note that the value of government securities and bonds in general have an inverse relationship to interest rates. Indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. The foregoing reflects the thoughts and opinions of Brandes Investment Partners exclusively and is subject to change without notice. Brandes Investment Partners is a registered trademark of Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. in the United States and Canada. Rolling periods represent a series of overlapping, smaller time periods within a single, longer-term time period. For example, over a 20-year period, there is one 20- year rolling period, eleven 10-year rolling periods, sixteen 5-year rolling periods, and so forth. The recommended reading has been prepared by independent sources which are not affiliated with Brandes Investment Partners. Any securities mentioned reflect independent analysts opinions and are not recommendations of Brandes Investment Partners. These materials are recommended for information purposes only and should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. No investment strategy can assure a profit or protect against loss. Brandes Investment Partners does not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely, or make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from its use. Brandes Investment Partners does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any particular investment or information source. No investment strategy can assure a profit or protect against loss. 34

36 VALUE SPECIALISTS SINCE 1974 CALL BRANDES NOW BRANDES.COM El Camino Real Suite 600 P.O. Box San Diego, CA

37 The Stroop Effect: Testing our Brain Source: University of Washington. 36

38 The Stroop Effect: Testing our Brain Source: University of Washington. 37