Présentation du 31 mai 2011

Transcription

1 Présentation du 31 mai 2011

2 Chiffres clés du 1er semestre clos au 31 mars 2011 (1er octobre mars 2011)

3 Chiffre d affaires des données publiées aux données comparables (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Variation Chiffre d'affaires (données publiées) 282,1 341,6 + 21,1% Effet de conversion Variation de périmètre - 0,6-13,8-11,8 CHIFFRE D'AFFAIRES (données comparables) 281,5 316,0 + 12,3%

4 Chiffre d affaires par société (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Variation FITCH GROUP 282,1 329,8 + 16,9% Fitch Ratings 230,0 263,8 + 14,7% Algorithmics 52,1 66,0 + 26,7% AUTRES 11,8 CHIFFRE D'AFFAIRES (données publiées) 282,1 341,6 + 21,1%

5 Chiffre d affaires par société (données comparables) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Variation FITCH GROUP 281,5 316,0 + 12,3% Fitch Ratings 229,4 252,8 + 10,2% Algorithmics 52,1 63,2 + 21,3% AUTRES CHIFFRE D'AFFAIRES (données comparables) 281,5 316,0 + 12,3%

6 Chiffre d affaires Fitch Ratings par zone géographique (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) % S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) % 1 États-Unis 94,9 41,3 % 100,9 38,2 % 2 Royaume-Uni 20,8 9,0 % 24,7 9,4 % 3 Corée du Sud 16,2 7,0 % 17,7 6,7 % 4 Allemagne 9,0 3,9 % 10,1 3,8 % 5 Espagne 5,7 2,5 % 7,6 2,9 % 6 Pays-Bas 6,3 2,7 % 7,5 2,8 % 7 Italie 3,5 1,5 % 7,5 2,8 % 8 France 6,3 2,7 % 7,1 2,7 % 9 Suisse 6,1 2,7 % 6,7 2,5 % 10 Mexique 5,7 2,5 % 6,1 2,3 % % du chiffre d affaires Fitch Ratings 75,9 % 74,3 %

7 Chiffre d affaires Algorithmics par zone géographique (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) % S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) % 1 Royaume-Uni 9,8 18,8 % 17,7 26,8 % 2 États-Unis 9,3 17,9 % 9,0 13,6 % 3 France 1,7 3,3 % 4,9 7,4 % 4 Australie 0,7 1,3 % 4,4 6,7 % 5 Allemagne 5,4 10,4 % 3,4 5,2 % 6 Canada 3,1 6,0 % 3,3 5,0 % 7 Pays-Bas 1,7 3,3 % 3,1 4,7 % 8 Japon 1,1 2,1 % 2,8 4,2 % 9 Danemark 1,6 3,1 % 1,7 2,6 % 10 Italie 1,2 2,3 % 1,6 2,4 % % du chiffre d affaires Algorithmics 68,3 % 78,6 %

8 Chiffre d affaires Fitch Group par zone géographique (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) % S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) % 1 États-Unis 104,2 36,9 % 109,9 33,3 % 2 Royaume-Uni 30,6 10,8 % 42,4 12,9 % 3 Corée du Sud 16,2 5,7 % 18,0 5,5 % 4 Allemagne 14,4 5,1 % 13,5 4,1 % 5 France 8,0 2,8 % 12,0 3,6 % 6 Pays-Bas 8,0 2,8 % 10,6 3,2 % 7 Italie 4,7 1,7 % 9,1 2,8 % 8 Espagne 7,1 2,5 % 8,3 2,5 % 9 Australie 3,0 1,1 % 7,7 2,3 % 10 Suisse 7,7 2,7 % 7,5 2,3 % % du chiffre d affaires Fitch Group 72,3 % 72,5 %

9 Du chiffre d affaires au résultat opérationnel courant (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Variation Chiffre d affaires (données publiées) 282,1 341,6 + 21,1 % Autres produits et charges d exploitation - 222,3-266,1 Résultat opérationnel courant (données publiées) 59,8 75,5 + 26,3 % Effet de conversion 0,2 0,7 Variation de périmètre 0,3-1,5 RESULTAT OPERATIONNEL COURANT (données comparables) 60,3 74,7 + 23,9 %

10 Résultat opérationnel courant par société (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Variation FITCH GROUP 65,8 79,6 + 21,0% Fitch Ratings 70,6 82,6 + 17,0% Algorithmics - 4,8-3,0 Autres - 6,0-4,1 RESULTAT OPERATIONNEL COURANT (données publiées) 59,8 75,5 + 26,3%

11 Résultat opérationnel courant par société (données comparables) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Variation FITCH GROUP 66,3 79,9 + 20,5% Fitch Ratings 70,9 80,8 + 14,0% Algorithmics - 4,6-0,9 Autres - 6,0-5,2 RESULTAT OPERATIONNEL COURANT (données comparables) 60,3 74,7 + 23,9% Taux de Marge Opérationnelle courante (ROC / CA) Fitch Ratings 30,9% Fitch Group 23,6% consolidation Fimalac 21,4% 32,0% 25,3% 23,6%

12 Du résultat opérationnel courant au résultat opérationnel (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Résultat opérationnel courant (données publiées) 59,8 75,5 Autres produits et charges opérationnels - 0,8-0,6 RÉSULTAT OPÉRATIONNEL (données publiées) 59,0 74,9 + 26,9%

13 Du résultat opérationnel au résultat net (données publiées) (en M ) S1 2009/2010 (oct. 09 mars 10) S1 2010/2011 (oct. 10 mars 11) Résultat opérationnel (données publiées) 59,0 74,9 + 26,9% Coût net de l endettement financier - 1,1 1,6 Autres produits et charges financiers 0,8 0,3 Charge d impôt courant - 21,2-27,0 Charge d impôt non courant et différé - 5,5-9,4 Résultat net des sociétés mises en équivalence 0,4 1,5 RÉSULTAT NET GLOBAL (données publiées) 32,4 41,9 + 29,3% Intérêts minoritaires - 14,8-18,8 RÉSULTAT NET - Part Groupe (données publiées) 17,6 23,1 + 31,2%

14 Trésorerie / Endettement net par société (en M ) 30/09/ /03/2011 Fitch Group North Colonnade (immeuble de Londres) Société-mère et holdings Endettement net

15 L évolution de l actionnariat de Fimalac 30/09/ /03/2011 Actionnaire majoritaire 79,4% 79,9% Autocontrôle 1,1% 3,2% Autres 19,5% 16,9% 100% 100%

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17 Fitch Group Revenue to Operating Income in US$ millions 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % Change Revenue % Personnel costs % External expenses % Total charges % EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 27.2% 28.9% Profit sharing plan Depreciation & Amortization Operating Income % Operating Income Margin 23.3% 24.1%

18 Financial Highlights (US$ millions) Revenue EBITDA Op Income 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % Change 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % Change 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % Change FITCH GROUP % % % Fitch Ratings % % % Algorithmics % %

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20 Overview Year over year financial growth for Fitch Ratings Macroeconomic conditions continuing to improve Fragile recovery ongoing Strong debt issuance among corporate issuers and structured finance issuance showing improvements Overall credit conditions improving, but vary by region and asset class Legislative and regulatory uncertainty easing

21 Fitch Ratings Revenue by Segment (US$ millions) Revenue 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % change As-Reported % change Like-for-Like FITCH RATINGS % 10.2% Corporate Finance % 5.6% Structured Finance % 18.9% Fitch Solutions % 15.0% Other % -7.3%

22 Fitch Ratings Revenue by Region (US$ millions) Revenue 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % change As-Reported % change Like-for-Like FITCH RATINGS % 10.2% North America % 4.6% EMEA % 13.7% Latin America % 12.1% Asia Pacific % 14.0%

23 Fitch Ratings EBITDA and Operating Income (in US$ millions) 1H 09/10 1H 10/11 % change % change As-Reported Like-for-Like Revenue % 10.2% EBITDA % 18.1% EBITDA Margin 32.1% 34.2% Profit sharing plan Depreciation & Amortization Operating Income % 14.0% Operating Income Margin 30.7% 31.3%

24 Macroeconomic Environment The global economy continuing to show signs of a recovery, though challenges remain Global economic recovery proceeding on track 2011 growth estimates lowered, reasons include high oil prices and the Japan tsunami Emerging markets benefit from robust economic growth Developed markets struggle with a slow recovery, financial sector concerns, and mounting debt Corporate balance sheets have been repaired Corporate investment remains more moderate than aggressive

25 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Global Debt Issuance Issuance totaled approximately $3 trillion in the first half, a 3% decrease over the prior period Strong activity in non-financial corporates sector 2,000 1,750 Global Debt Issuance($B) 1H10 1H11 Structured finance issuance seeing improvements 1,500 1,250 1,000 Weakness in financial institutions issuance partially offset by gains in European covered bond issuance Slowdown in US public finance issuance 0 Calendar Quarter Source: Dealogic

26 Corporate Finance Debt Issuance Issuance in Non-Financial Corporates saw an active fiscal first half, up 17% Issuers taking advantage of low interest rates Strong demand for higher yielding securities Increased M&A activity Reduced bank lending in Europe Financial Institutions issuance saw a 15% decline in 1H11 over same period last year Year over year decline in government guaranteed debt Senior unsecured bank issuance has declined in lieu of covered bond issuance in Europe Sovereign credit concerns and regulatory uncertainty has hampered issuance Source: Dealogic

27 Structured Finance Debt Issuance Structured Finance continuing to show modest improvements 900 Global Structured Finance Issuance ($B) Although activity can vary by asset class and region Strength in primary RMBS and ABS issuance in EMEA US CMBS issuance showing strong growth as US ABS issuance moderated H10 1H11 Legislative and regulatory uncertainty creating some market volatility Calendar Year Source: Dealogic

28 US Public Finance Debt Issuance Slowdown in US municipal bond issuance following a period of record issuance Lowest quarterly issuance volume in a decade followed record issuance levels in October through December US Public Finance Issuance ($B) BAB Non-BAB 1H10 1H11 Coinciding with the expiration of the Build America Bond program at year end Continued concerns over state and local governments budget deficits also impacting issuance levels Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Calendar Quarter Source: SIFMA / Thomson Reuters

29 Credit Conditions Fitch is seeing improvements in credit conditions, while continuing to monitor for indicators of stress Corporates Upgrades outpaced downgrades Credit risks concentrated in macro-event risks Accumulated cash surpluses increasingly used to fund M&A and share buybacks Global Corporates Ratings Trends Upgrades Downgrades Financial Institutions Downgrades topped upgrades, but diminished in severity Sovereign debt crisis placing pressure on European banks Banks face changing regulatory regimes Global FI Ratings Trends Upgrades Downgrades Calendar Year

30 Credit Conditions Sovereigns Continued credit stress in the Eurozone Political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa Ratings activity in calendar 2010 saw downgrades more than double over the prior year Notable downgrades in 1H11 included Greece, Ireland, and Portugal Strength in emerging markets US Public Finance Pressure on credit quality persists as local and state governments face varying degrees of fiscal and economic pressure Downgrades topped upgrades, most notably in the tax-supported sector

31 Credit Conditions Structured Finance Impact of global recession continues to be felt, though signs of stability surfacing While downgrades outpace upgrades, the number and severity of downgrades declined significantly year over year ABS continues to be most stable asset class RMBS downgrades driven by activity in the US and mostly affecting junior tranches Pressure on European and US commercial property values pressuring CMBS Negative rating activity persisted in the structured credit sector Global Structured Finance Ratings Trends 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Upgrades Downgrades Calendar Year

32 Fitch Solutions Steady growth and strong demand across Fitch Solutions offerings driven by: Strong capital markets activity Regulatory compliance requirements Enhanced risk management practices Improving client budgets for data, research & training Fitch Training seeing high demand for both general and tailored courses Continuing efforts to enhance content delivery by: Investing in Fitch s web platform Increasing access to Fitch content through third party channels

33 Regulatory Update Regulatory Update European and US legislation and regulatory rule-making underway e.g., Dodd-Frank Wall St. Reform and Consumer Protection Act in the US EU Regulation on CRAs introduced, additional proposals under discussion Other major markets taking similar steps e.g., New regulatory framework in Japan New regulations passed in Hong Kong Legal Update

34 Conclusion Favorable long-term capital market trends continue, including: Improving economy Trend toward disintermediation Emerging market growth Substantial refinancing activity Decreasing regulatory and legal uncertainty Fitch remains committed to the following principles: Credit Expertise Investor Focus Leadership Perspective Transparency

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36 Algorithmics Market Drivers Sell side: New regulations, market structure and best practices Onerous new regulatory requirements (Basel III, Dodd Frank) lead to dramatic changes in business models and risk management practices Rapidly evolving OTC market structure results in fundamental changes in business practices (e.g. central counterparties) To do more with less, firms invest in enterprise risk solutions and integrated operational systems for risk aware decision support Asset owners adopt advanced risk and investment management practices In response to Solvency II, insurance firms implement industrial strength enterprise solutions for economic capital management and liability modelling As firms adopt liability driven asset allocation, they also invest in comprehensive economic capital management solutions Risk aware asset allocation and investment management is seen as critical Asset servicers and advisors focus on client oriented solutions Firms invest in risk management and investment planning solutions for clients to meet new regulations, strengthen client stickiness and explain new services

37 Algorithmics Highlights 44 New License Orders EMEA driving overall results. Clients include supervisors and clearing houses 563 Software Solution clients Strong renewal activity and important new business from existing clients. 139 Content and Data clients Continued growth of credit data consortium and new customer wins for Algo FIRST 836 Professionals in 23 Global Offices Added delivery resources to support business growth, particularly in Algo Risk Service and Global Services to support ongoing large implementations

38 Algorithmics Solution Achievements Market Risk Solutions: 184 clients Several important Algo Risk Service wins (e.g. major asset servicer) Strong demand for advanced risk analytics (e.g. CVA) Credit and Capital Solutions: 119 clients Continue to leverage leading market position with large insurers for Solvency II and economic capital solutions Advanced balance sheet and liquidity risk management solution gaining traction with early adopters. Introduced strategic business planning solution for comprehensive strategic decision support. Growing interest in enterprise credit solution for integrated operational support of credit function Collateral Management Solutions: 78 clients Changes in market practice drive demand for upgrades and new sales

39 Algorithmics EBITDA and Operating Income (in millions of US$) 2009/2010 (Oct 09-Mar 10) 2010/2011 (Oct 10 Mar 11) % Change As-Reported % Change Like-for-Like Revenue % +21.3% EBITDA Profit sharing plan Depreciation & Amortization Operating Income

40 Algorithmics Revenue by Region (US$ millions) Revenue 2009/ /2011 % change % change (Oct 09-Mar 10) (Oct 10-Mar 11) As-Reported Like-for-Like ALGORITHMICS % +21.3% North America % -6.8% EMEA % +16.7% Latin America % +41.4% Asia Pacific % %

41 Algorithmics Investment Focus Continue to evolve core risk solutions Focus on risk aware decision support, advanced risk analytics, and enterprise risk solutions Drive focused innovation to maintain market leadership Received patents for scenario generation and operational risk capital modeling frameworks Expand market leadership in economic capital for insurers Rebranded VIPitech as Algo Financial Modeler. Launched solutions to address needs of smaller insurers and provide rich liability modeling Leverage broad geographical presence Strong partnerships and leading market position in high growth markets (e.g. Latin America) create strong foundation for further client growth Continue to expand buy-side market presence Building out Algo Risk Service infrastructure to support growth

42 Algorithmics Recognized Leadership 2010 Risk Rankings: #1 Enterprise Risk Management Vendor Voted top risk management vendor again, receiving more first places in the enterprise risk categories than any other vendor 2010 Buy-Side Technology Awards Won Best Risk/Portfolio Analytics Product for the third year running 2010 Chartis Research Placed in leaders quadrant in market risk, credit risk and operational risk reports 2011 Operational Risk & Regulation Software Rankings Voted Best Operational Risk Software Solution for the third year running 2010 Life & Pension Risk Awards Best Solvency II Software Provider

43 Appendix

44 Group Structure 60% 40%