Can U.S. Shale Survive Sub $50 Oil?

Transcription

1 Can U.S. Shale Survive Sub $50 Oil? Bloomberg Webinar April 21, 2016 Trisha Curtis Co-Founder, PetroNerds, LLC 2016 PetroNerds LLC

2 About PetroNerds PetroNerds, LLC is a Denver, CO based energy analytics and consulting firm with a focus on oil, gas, and biofuels. We are committed to providing detailed, data-driven, and actionable insights into the activity of energy companies, markets, and policy developments. PetroNerds combines its experience, knowledge, analytical skills and access to proprietary data and tools to provide some of the most detailed and accessible upstream insights available. Much more than high-level forecasts, 30,000 ft summaries, or macro-models. PetroNerds seeks to work closely with its clients and provided personalized services. We tailor our projects to the exact requirements of our clients, large and small. The founders of PetroNerds have nearly 15 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. They have led research contracts with US Department of Defense and US Department of Energy, presented at some of the world s foremost oil and gas venues and universities, published in publications such as Oil & Gas Journal and World Oil, and been quoted by the Economist and the Financial Times PetroNerds LLC

3 Some of PetroNerds Analytical Services Upstream Oil and Gas Production Analysis and Asset Evaluations on a Wells-up Basis Midstream Market and Crude Oil Transportation Downstream/Refining Economics (Policy, Biofuels/Ethanol) Geopolitics and International Crude Markets - Putting US production in context Public policy and economic reports Equity Analysis, Project Economics, Due Diligence Custom Economic Models + Software 2016 PetroNerds LLC

4 Can U.S. Shale Survive Sub $50 Oil? $160 $140 $120 WTI and Brent Low oil prices are taking a toll on producers across the globe U.S. producers spent 2015 trying to survive and are now faced with extreme choices to get through 2016 $100 $80 $60 $40 Job cuts in the U.S. and abroad are severe and will have an impact on the flexibility of the industry to return to increased activity levels should prices return $20 $- Cushing OK WTI Spot Price FOB $/bbl Europe Brent Spot Price FOB $/bbl U.S. data has received an overwhelming amount of attention (rigs and storage) - this is relevant because it is one of the most transparent markets; however, OPEC and many other producing regions (Latin America, Africa) deserve attention Source: EIA 2016 PetroNerds LLC

5 Price disparities continue Source: Flint Hills prices (April 19, 2016 Eagle Ford crude less than 50 API), LLS estimate, Bloomberg WTI/Brent April 19, 2016, WCS CME Group) 2016 PetroNerds LLC

6 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Thousand Barrels Per Day U.S. Production and Forecast 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Jan mbd 83,000 b/d drop from Dec ,000 - U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Forecast - Assuming a 100,000 b/d Monthly Decline Source: EIA Data, PetroNerds forecast estimate 2016 PetroNerds LLC

7 Resiliency and Bankruptcy Easy money/zero percent interest rates + low oil prices + fledgling unconventional industry. A lot of smaller independent oil companies were able to take on more debt and continue financing their operations despite a dramatic change in price but many smaller companies are now out of options. Most bankruptcies thus far have affected only small producers although that could change. The continued availability of credit is partially responsible for stronger than expected shale oil production volumes. Core oil plays doing far better than condensate and gas plays activity levels and CAPEX are being dramatically reduced as companies enter their second year of low oil prices. Larger operators and lenders are in the same boat - both have an interest in maintaining the status quo (keeping credit lines open and avoiding default) to survive the downturn. There is still a strong appetite for risk among investors and some lenders as they chase yields in a low rate environment. There are some good assets out there, but they are being clouded by bankruptcies, poor company leadership, massive debt loads, a lack of understanding about the underlying assets, and varying levels of knowledge of the rocks and the reservoirs in question. Top performing companies are trimming down their asset portfolios and focusing research and capital on their best rocks PetroNerds LLC

8 Jan-85 Sep-85 May-86 Jan-87 Sep-87 May-88 Jan-89 Sep-89 May-90 Jan-91 Sep-91 May-92 Jan-93 Sep-93 May-94 Jan-95 Sep-95 May-96 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 Thousand Barrels Per Day U.S. Production by State 4,000 3,500 3,000 Mar 2015 Peak 3,644 mbd Jan 2016 Texas 3,365 mbd 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, North Dakota Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Wyoming Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Federal Offshore--Gulf of Mexico Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Texas Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Oklahoma Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Colorado Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d New Mexico Field Production of Crude Oil Mbbl/d Source: EIA 2016 PetroNerds LLC

9 Primary Shale and Tight Oil Plays Source: DrillingInfo raw data 2016 PetroNerds LLC

10 2015 and 2016 wells brought onto production All 2015 Wells Brought Onto Production (Jan 1, 2015 to Dec 31, 2015) 16,000 plus oil wells 2,000 plus oil/gas wells 5,000 plus gas wells All 2016 Wells Brought Onto Production (Jan 1, 2016 to current) 913 oil wells 94 oil/gas wells 378 gas wells Source: DrillingInfo, April 20, 2016 Exxon, Anadarko, Apache, Occidental Trend Area, Marcellus, Wolfcamp, Eagle Ford 2016 PetroNerds LLC

11 7/17/1987 7/17/1988 7/17/1989 7/17/1990 7/17/1991 7/17/1992 7/17/1993 7/17/1994 7/17/1995 7/17/1996 7/17/1997 7/17/1998 7/17/1999 7/17/2000 7/17/2001 7/17/2002 7/17/2003 7/17/2004 7/17/2005 7/17/2006 7/17/2007 7/17/2008 7/17/2009 7/17/2010 7/17/2011 7/17/2012 7/17/2013 7/17/2014 7/17/2015 # of Rigs WTI $/Barrel Severe rig count decline continues despite modest price rebound 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Just 351 rigs drilling for oil U.S. Total Rig Count and WTI Oil Gas Total Cushing OK WTI Spot Price FOB $/bbl $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Many of these rigs are under contract or otherwise would be unused Price have been too low for too long not necessarily lower for longer Source: Baker Hughes, EIA 2016 PetroNerds LLC

12 Only 451 rigs currently drilling in the U.S. 451 rigs currently drilling in the U.S. Only 38 dry gas rigs 292 horizontal 61 vertical rigs still drilling Source: DrillingInfo, April 20, PetroNerds LLC

13 Reduction in filed permits 7,555 permits filed in past 90 days as of April 19, 2016 vs. 12,657 permits filed (past 90 days) March 11, 2015 Source: DrillingInfo, permits filed in past 90 days, April 19, 2016 Permitting is noticeably thinner in areas where assets are better delineated, developed, and held by production Bakken and Eagle Ford 2016 PetroNerds LLC

14 Capital expenditure cuts severe for 2016 American producers are expected to cut their budgets by 51% to $89.6 billion from 2014, a reduction that exceeds the worst years of the 1980s, according to Cowen & Co. - WSJ U.S. tight/unconventional oil production and technology grew on the back of small independent operators and a nimble service sector. The severe reduction in capital expenditures and job losses will impinge this going forward. Job losses in the U.S. are estimated to be around 150,000. Fall 2015 U.S. CAPEX cuts averaged about 40% 2016 CAPEX cuts are ranging between 30% and 80% some companies reducing an additional 80% from PetroNerds LLC

15 Service Sector Feels the Pain in Q Primarily in North America For many of our customers, available cash and annual budgets were exhausted well before the half way point over the fourth quarter, leading to unscheduled and abrupt activity cancellations, creating an operating environment that is increasingly complex to navigate we ve in the past year unfortunately have to reduce more than 34,000 employees, which represents an unprecedented number for the Company Schlumberger 4 th Quarter Earnings 2015, Jan 22, 2016 Seeking Alpha But the reality is, due to the macro uncertainties, many of our customers are managing their businesses in real time, rig-by-rig. Accordingly, we are going to take this market week-by-week and in some cases crew-by-crew. This is unlikely to change until our customers have confidence in a sustainable and economical oil price. Halliburton 4 th Quarter Earnings 2015, Jan 25, 2016 Seeking Alpha 2016 PetroNerds LLC

16 Pioneer Natural Resources Q2 vs. Q4 The rig ramp is expected to bring horizontal activity back to the level it was at prior to the oil price collapse in late We've already added four rigs. The IRRs, which are most important, what are the returns in this type of price environment? The Spraberry/ Wolfcamp and Eagle Ford range from 45% to 60% at current strip prices, including all costs, tank battery, salt water disposal, capital costs. For example, also in a $50 flat environment, we're still getting 30% to 35% returns. 2 nd Quarter Aug 5, 2015 Seeking Alpha the entire strip for 2016 has dropped over $10 during that timeframe. Much faster than I had thought, than we had thought at the management team, at the board level. So that's why we have developed this response to that. So we're reducing our horizontal drilling activity by 50%, from 24 rigs down to 12 by mid-2016 while still growing production by 10% plus and preserving the company's strong balance sheet and cash position. Eagle Ford will be going from six rigs to zero during the first quarter. Two rigs already released. Also in Eagle Ford we will have 17 ducks that will hold off and decide when prices come back, which I expect in 2017, reducing Southern Wolfcamp joint venture from four rigs to zero by mid We'll be using the rest of our carry as the reason that we're running those rigs until mid-year to fully utilize the rest of the carry. Reducing northern Spraberry/Wolfcamp from 14 to 12, really for capital preservation. Already released one rig. We were going back and forth between 12 and 14. We felt like that we wanted to get our capital budget down about $2 billion, so there's nothing magic about it, but what's amazing is that we're still growing 50%, 10% plus by cutting half of our rigs. A great accomplishment to the Permian team. 4 th Quarter Feb 11, 2016 Seeking Alpha 2016 PetroNerds LLC

17 Jan - Feb 2016 # of Permits, Spuds, WOCs Avg # of Rigs North Dakota Data Dive North Dakota Permits, Spuds, Rigs, and WOCs 3, Total spuds went from 2,264 in 2014 to just 1,363 in ,000 2,500 2,000 Total Permits Spuds Estimated Wells Waiting on Completion (WOC) Average Avgerage Rig Count , , Source: NDIC raw data, PetroNerds data and calculations 2016 PetroNerds LLC

18 Shale Oil Play Production and Analysis 2016 PetroNerds LLC

19 2/4/2011 4/4/2011 6/4/2011 8/4/ /4/ /4/2011 2/4/2012 4/4/2012 6/4/2012 8/4/ /4/ /4/2012 2/4/2013 4/4/2013 6/4/2013 8/4/ /4/ /4/2013 2/4/2014 4/4/2014 6/4/2014 8/4/ /4/ /4/2014 2/4/2015 4/4/2015 6/4/2015 8/4/ /4/ /4/2015 2/4/2016 4/4/2016 # of Rigs The major shale plays continue to shed rigs 600 Major Shale Oil Plays and Marcellus Rig Count Permian 141 Eagle Ford 42 Williston DJ - Niobrara Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Williston Source: Baker Hughes 2016 PetroNerds LLC

20 1/1/2000 6/1/ /1/2000 4/1/2001 9/1/2001 2/1/2002 7/1/ /1/2002 5/1/ /1/2003 3/1/2004 8/1/2004 1/1/2005 6/1/ /1/2005 4/1/2006 9/1/2006 2/1/2007 7/1/ /1/2007 5/1/ /1/2008 3/1/2009 8/1/2009 1/1/2010 6/1/ /1/2010 4/1/2011 9/1/2011 2/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 5/1/ /1/2013 3/1/2014 8/1/2014 1/1/2015 6/1/ /1/2015 Barrels Per Day Major shale oil play production 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Permian Basin (Dec 2015) mbd Eagle Ford (Jan 2016) mbd 1,000, ,000 Williston Basin (Jan 2016) mbd - Williston Basin Liquid Permian Basin Liquid Permian Basin - TEXAS Liquid Permian Basin - NEW MEXICO Liquid Eagle Ford Liquid Denver Julesburg Basin Liquid Powder River Basin Liquid Source: PetroNerds, Raw data from DrillingInfo 2016 PetroNerds LLC

21 # of Rigs # of Rigs Top operator rig count comparison Dec Rigs March Rigs 5 0 Dec Rigs March Rigs Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo raw data used 2016 PetroNerds LLC

22 Williston Basin well additions since Jan 2015 Source: PetroNerds, March 29, 2016, Raw data from HPDI 2016 PetroNerds LLC

23 Barrels Per Day bbls/d Williston Basin - March 2016 Top Producer Production Comparison March 2016 Top Producer Production Comparison to August , , , ,000 80,000 Continental, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and Oasis grew production between Aug and March Whiting, Hess, EOG, QEP, and many others dropped. 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - Williston Basin Production Concentration Total Production Top 10 Combined All Others 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Continental Resources Whiting Petroleum Corporation Hess ConocoPhillips ExxonMobil Oasis Petroleum Statoil Marathon Oil EOG Resources QEP Resources Inc Production - August 2015 Production - March 2016 Source: PetroNerds, March 2016, raw data from DrillingInfo 2016 PetroNerds LLC

24 1/1/2000 7/1/2000 1/1/2001 7/1/2001 1/1/2002 7/1/2002 1/1/2003 7/1/2003 1/1/2004 7/1/2004 1/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 7/1/2006 1/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 7/1/2008 1/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/2014 1/1/2015 7/1/2015 Barrels Per Day Permian Basin production by drill type 1,200,000 Horizontal vs. Vertical Permian Basin Production 1,000, , , , ,000 - Permian Basin Horizontal Production Permian Basin Vertical Production Source: PetroNerds, April 2016, Raw data DrillingInfo 2016 PetroNerds LLC

25 Permian Basin well additions since Jan 2015 Source: PetroNerds, March 29, 2016, Raw data from HPDI 2016 PetroNerds LLC

26 Barrels Per Day bbls/d Permian - March 2016 Top Producer Production Comparison 250, ,000 March 2016 Top Producer Production Comparison to August 2015 OXY, Concho, and Devon all reduced production between August and March 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Permian Basin Production Concentration 500, , ,000 - Total Production Top 10 Combined All Others 50,000 - OXY Pioneer Natural Resources Concho Resources Inc Apache Corporation ExxonMobil Devon Energy Chevron Kinder Morgan Cimarex Energy Company EOG Resources Production - August 2015 Production - March 2016 Other than EOG, Pioneer Natural Resources was the only top ten producing company to aggressively grow production between Aug 2015 and March Source: PetroNerds, March 2016, Raw data from HPDI 2016 PetroNerds LLC

27 Eagle Ford well additions since Jan 2015 Source: PetroNerds, March , Raw data from HPDI 2016 PetroNerds LLC

28 Eagle Ford Geology and Top Ten Producers Of the top ten producers, controlling over 1 mbd, 8 out of 10 experienced production declined between August 2015 and March These companies are largely in the volatile oil, condensate, and gas windows. Company Production - August 2015 Production - March 2016 Product Window EOG Resources 226, ,463 crude largely condensate, but some Devon Energy 183, ,628 crude Marathon Oil 142, ,152 Volatile oil and condensate ConocoPhillips 115, ,765 oil and condensate border Chesapeake oil and condensate mix on Energy Corp 126, ,945 southern end Anadarko Petroleum 94,435 91,136 gas wells, largely condensate production Pioneer Natural Resources 74,458 65,350 gas wells, largely condensate production, but some oil wells Murphy Oil 53,877 55,244 largely condensate and some volatile oil Encana 55,845 52,158 largely condensate EP Energy 57,779 47,861 oil, volatile oil, and some wet gas Source: PetroNerds, March 2016, Raw data from HPDI Source: Momentum Oil and Gas LLC, DUG Eagle Ford Conference Presentation Oct 2011; EOG Investor Presentation Feb 2014; 2016 PetroNerds LLC

29 Barrels Per Day bbls/d Eagle Ford - March 2016 Top Producer Production Comparison March 2016 Top Producer Production Comparison to August ,000 Eagle Ford Production Concentration 250, , ,000 Almost every operator, except for EOG, reduced production between Aug and March. 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - Total Production Top 10 Combined All Others 100,000 50,000 - EOG Resources Devon Energy Marathon Oil ConocoPhillips Chesapeake Energy Corp Anadarko Petroleum Pioneer Natural Resources Murphy Oil Encana EP Energy Production - August 2015 Production - March 2016 Source: PetroNerds, March 2016, Raw data from HPDI 2016 PetroNerds LLC

30 Well Performance PetroNerds LLC

31 Significant high grading has taken place High Everything. Intensity Completions Grading Intensity Infill Drilling Enhanced Completions Source: QEP Resources, 2 nd Quarter 2015 Earnings Call presentation 2016 PetroNerds LLC

32 Barrels Per Day Initial Production Rates Initial production rates rose significantly in 2015 IP Rates of Major Tight/Shale Oil Basins The incentive for many companies to pump large volumes of sand down wells in 2015 is because it was cheaper than other proppants, such as resin coated sand and ceramics, and because it increased IP rates and in turn gave them more cash flow For many companies this was really about surviving Eagle Ford New Mexico - Permian Basin - Horizontal North Dakota Texas - Permian Basin - Horizontal Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo raw data, PetroNerds, figure as of March 12, 2016 IP 2016 PetroNerds LLC

33 Frac sand usage millions of pounds per well in 2015 during the fourth quarter we completed wells with average frac sand volumes of 6.7 million pounds versus 5.2 million pounds in the third quarter. The fourth quarter wells achieved 30-day average rates 22% better than the third quarter. Whiting Petroleum, Q conference call, Seeking Alpha March 2016 Source: Emerge Energy Services, January 2016 Investor Presentation 2016 PetroNerds LLC

34 2015 decline curves have outperformed Williston Basin Permian Basin - Horizontal Eagle Ford The Eagle Ford suffers a number of issues related to condensate production Initial production rates have risen dramatically across major U.S. shale plays in 2015, primarily due to companies pumping millions of pounds of sand per well. Surprisingly, overall well performance has also increased for Source: DrillingInfo raw data, PetroNerds, figure as of April 7th, 2016 ( Days On shows lower avg IPs for Williston) 2016 PetroNerds LLC

35 EOG completion example EOG is ruble-izing around the wellbore with sand Source: 4 th Quarter 2015 presentation (Feb 2016) 2016 PetroNerds LLC

36 Financial state of the shalers bankruptcies and borrowing 2016 PetroNerds LLC

37 Bank exposure to energy loans As oil prices continue their volatile moves in 2016 and low prices reach into their second year, banks are beginning to shed more light on their exposure to the energy sector, non-performing loans, and unfunded loans - committed but untapped credit to oil companies. Source: WSJ, Why Big U.S. Banks Can Ride Out the Oil Bust By AARON BACK March 2, :20 p.m. ET 2016 PetroNerds LLC

38 Bankruptcies North American upstream oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy from the beginning of 2015 through April 14, (Haynes and Boone) These 63 companies held a combined $22.5 billion in outstanding debt. Secured: $11.9 billion Unsecured: $10.6 billion For context, EOG Resources Inc. holds $6.7 billion in long-term debt, as of December 31, PetroNerds LLC

39 21 North American Bankruptcies in total bankruptcies since Jan 2015 Filing Date Debtor (Operator) Total Secured and Unsecured 1/11/2016 AURORA OPERATING LLC $2,353, /18/2016 MOG PRODUCING LP $4,293, /25/2016 ANTERO ENERGY PARTNERS LLC $25,454, /3/2016 EMKEY RESOURCES LLC $22,351, /3/2016 OSAGE EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT INC. $39,464, /4/2016 GINGER OIL COMPANY $6,477, /17/2016 PRIMROSE LA SARA LLC $4,323, /17/2016 ARGENT ENERGY TRUST $153,440, /17/2016 ARGENT ENERY (U.S.) HOLDINGS INC. $51,900, /1/2016 D.J. SIMMONS INC. $10,902, /8/2016 RMR OPERATING LLC $3,562, /15/2016 NEW SOURCE ENERGY PARTNERS LP $51,176, /18/2016 VENOCO INC. $952,103, /22/2016 EMERALD OIL INC. $337,000, /24/2016 WHISTLER ENERGY II LLC $155,000, /31/ OPERATING COMPANY LLC $407, /1/2016 POSTROCK ENERGY CORPORATION $99,189, /13/2016 AZTEC OIL & GAS INC. $500, /13/2016 HYDROCARB ENERGY CORPORATION $14,311, /14/2016 ENERGY XXI LTD $2,858,290, /14/2016 GOODRICH PETROLEUM CORPORATION $507,058, ALL $5,299,561, Source: PetroNerds, Figures from Haynes and Boone 2016 PetroNerds LLC

40 Production of 11 Largest Bankrupt Debtholders The following table shows US oil and gas production figures for the 11 companies who have filed for bankruptcy since January 1, 2015 with more than $500 million in outstanding debt. Company Quicksilver Resources Samson Resources Sabine Oil & Gas Production (b/d) Gas Production (mcf/d) ,000 15, ,000 10, ,000 Total Debt (Secured + Unsecured), $billions Milagro <1000 1,000-3,000 at peak Producing Region Mostly gas in Barnett and upper Michigan, but some oil in Montana, Colorado, and Wyoming Anadarko Basin (largely gas), Wyoming gas and some oil, Bakken, California, NM Permian, other states 2.9 Eagle Ford, Cotton Valley Sand Eagle Ford, East Texas, and Gulf Coast, primarily gas Mostly Eagle Ford, some Anadarko and Marcellus/Utica Swift Energy 8, , Energy and Exploration Partners 2,000-4,000 5,000-14, Texas, Eagle Ford mostly Magnum Hunter Resources Corp. 2,200 50, New Gulf Resources 2,000-3,000 8, East Texas, gas focused Energy XXI 30, , Mostly offshore GOM Goodrich Petroleum *** *** 0.51 Onshore GOM region Mostly gas wells, but some oil (around 929 total) in Kentucky and West Virginia Venoco 6,500 13, Onshore California and East Texas Total ~80,000 ~1,200,000 $18.9 billion Source: PetroNerds, Haynes & Boone, DrillingInfo Data 2016 PetroNerds LLC

41 Debt Highly Concentrated in 11 Companies (and in Texas Producers) Note that the 11 companies listed on the previous slide had a combined $18.9 billion of outstanding debt at the time of their bankruptcies. This represents 84% of the aggregate outstanding debt held by the 63 companies that have declared bankruptcy since the start of The vast majority of these and the smaller bankruptcies occurred in producers with a gas focus and/or Texas producers operating in the condensate-rich Eagle Ford and gassy East Texas. These struggles help to explain why Eagle Ford production has declined more than any other major tight oil play (and vice versa). Many of these companies were struggling at $80 oil, much more so $40 and $ PetroNerds LLC

42 Other Notable Financial Struggles These companies are, in terms of production volumes, far larger than the 11 largest bankruptcies (defined by debt) of the past 15 months. Company Linn Energy Production (b/d) Gas Production (mcf/d) 50, ,000 Chesapeake 160,000 5,300,000 Notes Bankruptcy is rumored to be imminent. Has had to publicly disavow bankruptcy rumors Whiting Petroleum 140, ,000 Borrowing base reduced Penn Virginia Corp. 20,000 40,000 Delisted from NYSE Producing Region Anadarko Basin, Heavily weighted with vertical wells across the country, some Permian wells but all vertical Anadarko and Appalachian Basins, some Eagle Ford and some Wyoming significant gas and condensate production Bakken, Rockies Niobrara, some Permian Mainly Oklahoma, Kentucky, some West Virginia Total 230,000 6,065,000 Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo raw production data 2016 PetroNerds LLC

43 Million Borrowing Base Redeterminations Borrowing bases were reduced this past fall, but not by much Borrowing Base Changes $30,000 Results of Fall 2015 Borrowing Base $25,856 Redeterminations $25,000 $22, No. of Companies - Base Increased 10 $20,000 No. of Companies - Base Unchanged 19 $15,000 $10,000 $8,065 $9,550 No. of Companies - Base Reduced 24 $5,000 $3, $0 Total Base BEFORE Redeterminations for 24 Companies Reduced Total Base AFTER Redeterminations for 24 Companies Reduced Total Base BEFORE Redeterminations for 10 Companies Increased Total Base AFTER Redeterminations for 10 Companies Increased $1,485 Amount Reduced Amount Increased by 24 Companies by 10 Companies Source: Bloomberg surveyed companies 2016 PetroNerds LLC

44 Why such small reductions? Varying risk appetite across lenders Pulling the plug on credit could trigger bankruptcies. In effect, by keeping credit lines open, lenders are hoping that their debtors will survive the downturn. Risk tolerance depends on whether or not debt is secured, actual value of collateral, a lender s ability to absorb large write-downs, and a plethora of other factors PetroNerds LLC