Walsh & Associates COMPREHENSIVE WEALTH MANAGEMENT. Economy

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1 Walsh & Associates REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR Economy 1325 Sycamore Rd. Suite 201 DeKalb, IL p f walshandassociates.com 2350 Fruitville Rd. Suite 201 Sarasota, FL p f Although the odds of a recession have increased since the start of the year we do not expect a recession to occur in U.S. economic data released in the first quarter continue the recent narrative of fairly steady but below-trend economic growth in the U.S. Healthy consumer- and services based segments of the economy continue to outpace manufacturing- and exports-based segments, although several measures of manufacturing activity did show improvement in February from modestly depressed levels. U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter of 2015 was revised upward in March to an annualized 1.4% from a prior estimate of 0.7%, driven mostly by upward revisions for consumer spending and exports. Based on data received so far, first quarter 2016 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is tracking at %. The most recent jobs report released on April 1 st by the BLS showed March added 215,000 jobs and the unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.0%. Average job growth for the first quarter was 209,000 jobs per month which is indicative of steady but below trend economic growth. Monetary policy divergence remains the primary theme among the world s developed economies. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) made the decision to implement a negative interest rate policy at the end of January 2016, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its commitment to act further should conditions warrant. As the March meeting of the Fed s policy arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), approached, the main question for market participants was whether the gap between market expectations of two more 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hikes over the course of 2016 and the Fed s expectation of four hikes expressed at its December 2015 meeting would close. In what could be considered a mildly accommodative move, Fed expectations fell in-line with the market s expectations of two rate hikes. In addition, long-run "neutral" fed funds expectations were reduced by 25 basis points (0.25%). In the FOMC s policy statement, the committee cited global economic weakness and tighter financial conditions as the justification for maintaining a slower, but still data dependent, rate hike path, while still talking up the U.S. economy. In her comments at the press conference following the conclusion of the meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen further elaborated that every FOMC meeting this year will be a live meeting and that the FOMC is not considering negative rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) also made a splash in March following its March 10 policy meeting, cutting all three of its key interest rates and moving the deposit rate 10 basis points (0.1%) lower to -0.4%. It also announced it would increase its quantitative easing program from 60 billion euros per month to 80 billion and would expand the assets Securities Offered Through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC COMPREHENSIVE WEALTH MANAGEMENT

2 eligible for purchase to include corporate bonds. The ECB did not, as some had expected, expand the time frame of the program, which is slated to end a year from now in March Stocks & Bonds The S&P 500 Index posted a 1.4% total return during the quarter, rallying off the February low of -10.2%. The quarter was marked by extreme volatility as concerns over the global economy, corporate profits, commodity prices, and currency fluctuations weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The market put in a double bottom on February 11 before rallying significantly on the reversal in oil prices, further policy accommodation abroad, and a pause by the Fed in its move toward normalized interest rates. Value outperformed growth as the Russell 1000 Value returned 1.6% while the Russell 1000 Growth only returned.7%. Small caps had mixed performance as small growth performed poorly with a -4.7% return as measured by the Russell 2000 Growth Index while small value performed better with a 1.7% return as measured by the Russell 2000 Value Index. Foreign developed stocks continue to lag their domestic counterparts on a year-to-date basis and remain in the red with a total return of -2.9% (MSCI EAFE Index). The strength of the emerging markets rally has resulted in strong relative performance versus domestic stocks and resulted in a positive year-to-date performance of 5.8% (MSCI Emerging Markets Index). During the month, the ECB continued to move further into the realm of nontraditional monetary policy by expanding both the size and scope of its quantitative easing program. This move, coupled with continued patience by the Fed was a boon for growth-sensitive emerging economies. Treasury yields were roughly unchanged during March after declining during the first two months of the year. The only notable change in yields occurred among shorter maturities as yields declined due to dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen, which served to reduce Fed rate hike expectations. Economically sensitive sectors were the major beneficiary of the market s rekindled appetite for risk starting in mid-february. Higher oil prices also helped as WTI crude oil remained above $35 per barrel for most of the month of March. Opportunistic investors, realizing that credit spreads were implying overly pessimistic default and recession probabilities, caused a rally in lower-quality fixed income that began in mid-february. High-yield bonds returned 3.1% for the 1 st quarter on this strength and emerging markets debt returned 5.9%. We need your 2015 Tax Returns In order to give you the most prudent and tax-wise investment advice we will need a copy of your 2015 tax return. If you have not done so, please forward a copy to us at (IL Fax), (FL Fax), or (Alice.Roberts@LPL.com or Amanda.Zachos@LPL.com), or drop it by the office. For those of you who used Joe s sister, Linda Walsh, to prepare your taxes we just need an OK for her to forward it on to us. This is very important as it helps us plan for any tax impacts when rebalancing your portfolio. Linda Walsh is an accountant that provides separate tax preparation services and is not affiliated with Walsh & Associates, LPL Financial & The Caring Advisors, LLC.

3 Clients sometimes ask what we look for once the tax returns are submitted. The general answer is we look for anything that would allow you to save money in taxes in future years. More specifically we look for net capital gains/losses, any tax loss carry forward, Roth IRA conversion opportunities, make sure any investment accounts held with us are reflected on the return (No missed 1099 s), if client is subject to AMT, and check deductions for more efficient charitable giving. We also look at business gains/losses and opportunities for tax deferred savings. These are just some of the items we look at and every client s tax return and situation is different. We want to help people with their entire financial lives and reviewing the tax return is a big part of it. PLEASE submit your returns to us as soon as they are completed for review. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor. Conference Calls with Walsh & Associates (Repeat from last quarter BUT IMPORTANT) Whether there is turmoil in the market, or it is performing remarkably well, we think it is important that our clients are kept abreast of market conditions and our opinions on its performance. To address this need, we have begun offering client-wide conference calls on our outlook of the market. To date, we have held two calls, with great responses from both. These calls will ideally be held twice per year in correspondence with LPL Financial s whole and mid-year outlooks. For each call, we will send out an invitation to join, which will include a call-in number so that you may listen to the presentation and follow along with the slides we out. Our next call is scheduled to take place in July, so please keep an eye out for an with the date, time and call-in number. Open House at Our New Florida Office Our growing Florida office has officially moved to its beautiful new location, located at 2350 Fruitville Rd. Ste. 201, Sarasota, FL At over 3,500 square feet, our secondfloor office is substantially larger than our previous location. Boasting two conference rooms, a classroom, and entirely remodeled reception area, we are excited to better serve our clients in our new space. Our phone number and fax number for the Florida office have not changed with the move. To welcome everyone to our new space, we will be holding an open house on April 21, 2016 from 3:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. There will be drinks and snacks, and we would love to give everyone the tour. If you live in Florida, you should have received an invitation in the mail, but if you know you will be visiting the area at that time please feel free to come. We just request that you RSVP to Kelly.holleran@lpl.com or Last Chance to File and Suspend Social Security Benefits is April 29, 2016 If you haven t heard (or your friends haven t heard), effective April 30, 2016, future retirees will no longer be able to file and suspend their Social Security benefits. If you are of full retirement age, you will only have until April 29, 2016 to take advantage of the file and suspend strategy. If you are age 66 before May 1, 2016 you have been excluded from the new rules IF you are either already collecting benefits or eligible to collect benefits but have officially suspended these benefits.

4 What is the file and suspend strategy? Under current rules, those who are at full retirement age are able to file and suspend their Social Security benefits in order to received delayed credits, which increases your Social Security benefit by 8 percent per year, not including cost-of-living adjustments. By using the file and suspend strategy, it may qualify family members to collect benefits based on your Social Security, without affecting the compounded growth of your own benefits. If done correctly, this could mean thousands of dollars for a married couple that they will not be able to receive should they not implement a file and suspend strategy by the April 29, 2016 deadline. If you are already properly using this strategy before April 30, 2016, you will be grandfathered in. But if you do not apply in time, you will be unable to suspend your payment accumulating delayed credits, nor will you be able to have anyone receive benefits on your record during the same period that your benefits are suspended. With such limited time, it is crucial for any of you who are considering, or do not know about, the file and suspend strategy to talk to us. We also encourage you to tell your friends and family members of retirement age to talk with a qualified financial advisor, who has experience with social security claiming, before the April 29, 2016 application deadline. Should your friends or family members not have an experienced financial advisor, we are happy to help. Respectfully, Joseph P. Walsh MBA, CFP, CFA, AIF, CRPC, CPWA Important Disclosures The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor. The economic forecasts set forth in this newsletter may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

5 The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank responsible for the monetary system of the European Union (EU) and the euro currency. The bank was formed in Germany in June 1998 and works with the other national banks of each of the EU members to formulate monetary policy for the European Union. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy. The eleven-person FOMC is composed of the seven-member board of governors, and the five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves continuously, while the presidents of the other regional Federal Reserve Banks rotate their service in one-year terms. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 23 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 822 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Standard & Poor s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.