The Pelican Bay Group at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. June 2010 Market Commentary Prepared by Anthony Gallea Managing Director Wealth Management

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1 The Pelican Bay Group at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney June 2010 Market Commentary Prepared by Anthony Gallea Managing Director Wealth Management As we approach the halfway mark to 2010, I believe the markets appear to be laboring to make headway and client portfolio returns reflect this in my opinion. Gains and losses seem muted. Of course, the 900 point drop (May 6, 2010) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was an interesting experience to go through. We were in markets for the Crash in And having seen these kinds of vertical drops before, I believe we did have a base of experience with which to handle that white-knuckle day. So, we did come through it without any problem and didn't hit any panic buttons. It isn't particularly unusual for stock markets to rest after big gains. As prices normalized in 2009 by unwinding some of the tremendous pessimism that had been built into stock prices, valuations (the price of the stock relative to its earnings potential) came back up to more normal levels. In some cases, stocks overshot what I would consider to be good value. 1 Now, with uncertainty the rule of the day, I think investors may be hesitant to make any major commitments to risk and so, markets may have difficulty making real headway, in any direction. I know there are some issues that are in the forefront of our client's concerns, so I thought I would go through the biggest I see and hear about on a daily basis. The gulf oil spill First, let me say that this is a tragedy in every way. It is tragic for the people living in the gulf, especially those who earn their living from the sea. For animals and plants living in fragile ecosystems, a tragedy. For the employees and shareholders of companies involved, tragic. And, in my own case, since boating is one of my passions, I am concerned personally about how this will spill up onto the equally fragile Florida coastal system. 1 Source: Bespoke Investment Group Earnings Estimates Revisions, June 2010.

2 But in the long run, these things, while tragic, tend not to create permanent economic damage in my opinion. The Exxon Valdez spill of decades ago would be a similar example, although damage was much less pronounced than here. No doubt, hearings will be held, and people and companies held accountable. Rules may be changed and tightened, and at some point, the world can move on. Mother Nature will repair and while the effects may linger, they could reduce over time. As an investment issue, however, I believe the oil spill may not be a prime factor. Europe's credit crisis If the assumption that the bursting of the credit bubble in 2007 was indeed a bubble, then history would suggest that several years will pass before complete recovery from it can finish. If you think back on other bubbles (The stock market of 1929, the NASDAQ market of 2000, the gold market in the early 1980's), you can see the tendency of these things to take years to work themselves out. So, in 2010, we are into our third year, in a cycle that may have that long or longer to complete. As a result, I would expect credit to continue to potentially be less plentiful and more problematic. There is a lot of money around, but it can be tough to get...only the best borrowers may have access 2 Now to the extent that credit may help fuel consumption, its absence can potentially make increased consumption difficult. And so, the headwinds that the economy seems to face, and the slow pace of recovery can be, in my opinion, partially explained by this contraction in credit. I believe, as part of the process of repair, the markets tend to seek out any weakness in existing credit and so, various credit "eruptions" can appear on a seemingly random basis, with very little warning. Thus, the problems in Europe, beginning with Greece, can be unsettling, but I consider them part of the process of repair...those unable to repay their debts need to restructure their debt or find new sources of guarantees, in my opinion. If this is correct, then, it is my belief that we can expect continued turmoil in credit, and while that turmoil can create havoc in markets from time to time, I think it is good to remind ourselves that to the extent it is part of the healing process, good can come from it. Unemployment Unemployment continues at stubbornly high levels. There are several reasons for this, in my opinion, and I'll list a few here. First, they may be destroying some businesses and some ways of doing business in favor of new businesses and new ways of doing business. Just consider the shift underway from gasoline-powered cars to electric or hybrid vehicles. In that shift, 2 Source: US Credit Conditions at

3 people may be laid off but equivalent new hires aren't yet in place. That may be for the future but right now, we're in something of a trough between the old and the new. As mentioned above, tighter credit means less consumption and all things being equal, that could mean less hiring. I believe, the consumer is still generally recognized to be the prime driver of our economy (and globally as well) and to the extent they are constrained, businesses don't need as many employees to serve them. A less obvious but relentless effect on employment can be the rise of machines to take over the work of people. Recently, I went to the movie theatre and instead of a person taking my money and selling me a ticket, a machine did it. When I park at the airport, I can pay with a credit card and not talk to a person. Machines doing work are everywhere (They even spell-check this market commentary) and we sometimes don't notice it because they are everywhere. But, this is something that is ongoing and may be a subject for new debate in the years ahead in my opinion. Elections If you can forecast the unemployment rate for September-October, you probably go a long way in predicting the elections in November. In non-presidential election years, the economy does tend to take center stage in voter's minds. 3 Unless there is a real change in the employment situation, which at present I believe looks unlikely, it is probable that there may be a shift in the Congress in November. If this is correct, then I think we may have a divided government with the President in one party and the Congress in the other. It has been my own experience that divided governments tend to be market friendly because of gridlock. It is my belief that while gridlock would seem to imply paralysis, it may also imply "no surprises" in legislation and so, removes some of the uncertainty. The economy Much as in credit, the economy appears to be in its own state of repair in my opinion. A lot got broken two years ago and it simply takes time for things to heal. I believe the cascading fall in the economy seems to be over and growth has been the rule, rather than the exception in recent quarters. But, to many, it may not feel that way because unemployment strikes home...if you haven't experienced a job loss in the past two years; you have people in your family who have. That is much more real to most people than the estimates coming out about Gross Domestic Product (Which have been positive). I think it would be a mistake to count out the American economy. It is big and robust and diversified. But within it, I believe you can find pockets of strength and weakness. Industrial production has been making good progress, but housing continues problematic. Technology has shown good returns, but banking has been very uneven. 4 3 Source: The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market, Journal of Finance October Source: Bespoke Investment Group Sector Analysis June 2010

4 It is important to remember that various sectors and industries may perform differently and so, there can be a limit as to how much commentary we can make of a general nature. Suffice it to say that we believe the economy appears to be on the mend and while progress is uneven, it is progress. Strategy Clients will see our thinking in your portfolios, so once you read this commentary, browsing your own statements might be helpful to connect the dots. In stocks, I believe we have good exposure, but not increased exposure. We have cash in some strategies and while we are positive on stocks, we are reminded that stock prices tend to bottom in the fall, in most years. So, we have been keeping some cash as a tactical decision...a short term decision. And, among the stocks we own, you will find an overweighting in industrial companies (See my comments above about the economy) and an underweighting in banks and housing. We are overweight technology but underweight energy. Overwhelmingly, we own big companies that we believe may be positioned globally to potentially take advantage of growth here in the United States, but overseas as well. Since I believe, small companies (Small cap) tend to be more domestically focused; I have limited exposures to them. And, in times of distress and turmoil, I like the comfort of owning "household" names with great investor recognition and ownership. I think they can help get us through tough times, as they come our way. Given that the international markets are so diverse; our international strategies have been active as we seek to find potential opportunities in all markets. So, the higher level of activity you may be observing may be result of their active research progress. In fixed income, we have reduced out exposures to long-dated bonds, believing that interest rates may find the easiest way up during the next few quarters. They have been taking some profits and redeploying cash into shorter term, high quality securities. Should we potentially get opportunities to lock in attractive interest rates, they hope to have the available cash with which to take advantage of that. All in all, I think we accurately convey the impression that while we can be in a positive frame of mind, we think there is still enough headwinds to cause us to keep some cash available. It s not so much that we think markets are overvalued (We don't really believe that they are), it s more in the nature of expecting some investors to be disappointed by future events, and so, a downward bias may exist in stocks for the next few months. But beyond that, we do believe that we may get a potential opportunity to position cash back into risk assets (Stocks, primarily) and so, if we are near-term bearish it is bearish with a small "b." We've come a long way since the economic and credit disasters of 2007 and 2008, but there is still a long way to go in my opinion.

5 Patience, as always is a virtue in these things, but even as we move forward, we are reminded that given the poor return of stocks over the past years, a new bull market becomes something to think about. Best Wishes...Tony Anthony Gallea Managing Director-Wealth Management Senior Portfolio Management Director Morgan Stanley Smith Barney 7575 Pelican Bay Blvd. #1105 Naples, FL Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer's credit rating, or creditworthiness, causes a bond's price to decline. Finally, bonds can be subject to prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, an issuer may choose to borrow money at a lower interest rate, while paying off its previously issued bonds. As a consequence, underlying bonds will lose the interest payments from the investment and will be forced to reinvest in a market where prevailing interest rates are lower than when the initial investment was made. NOTE: High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. International investing may not be suitable for every investor and is subject to additional risks, including currency fluctuations, political factors, withholding, lack of liquidity, the absence of adequate financial information, and exchange control restrictions impacting foreign issuers. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks than those associated with investing in more established companies, including significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity. This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies and/or investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor s individual circumstances and objectives. Please contact your Financial Advisor for a complete listing of all transactions that occurred during the last twelve months. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

6 Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of the 30 blue-chip stocks and serves as a measure of the U.S. market, covering such diverse industries as financial services, technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index. NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all NASDAQ domestic and non-u.s. based common stocks listed on NASDAQ stock market. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index. # Robert Mike