David R. Reiser, CFP, Family Wealth Director, Senior Vice President Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

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1 David R. Reiser, CFP, Family Wealth Director, Senior Vice President Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management David Reiser: One of the most important topics we should be talking about is how to help seniors who are starving for income. We need to protect senior citizens and middle class Americans good Americans who have worked tirelessly their whole life to get to the point where they had hoped to have a wonderful retirement to be able to draw a decent income and to enjoy their kids and their grandkids in their golden years. And what struggles are they facing right now? They re looking at rates that are just abysmal. If we look at the five-year treasuries they're at 0.64%. The ten-year's at 1.61%. You look at CD rates and think, Where do I put my money? I can't live on that. Seniors are getting hammered everywhere. Look at how the cost of living is increasing. I have a 93-year-old mother. And we talk about the oil bills. And we talk about the electric bill. And we talk about the cost of prescription drugs. And we talk about the cost of food and milk. And we talk about clipping coupons and finding sales. We talk about the expense of just running your automobile. The price of gasoline just to get around continues to get higher. Yet the amount of income that they can draw on from what they would consider safe investments and CDs or short-term bonds is abysmal. The biggest fear of our seniors, like my mother, is that they don't want to spend their principal. They think, If we spend our principal, where will we be? I recently read a report that half of U.S. seniors die broke. So what are we doing wrong for our seniors? What are we doing wrong as a country in not helping middle-class Americans? I grew up in a small rural community in Southeastern Massachusetts, and I m blessed to still be in touch with wonderful, hardworking friends from my high school days who still live in that town. And just like my senior clients, they, too, ask me, Where should we be saving for the long run? They look at the CDs and the banks, like my seniors, and they say, "Dave, what do we do?" I think in both those situations we need to go back to basics. The first step is to turn off our TVs. You'd be surprised how many clients I speak to on the phone and I hear a financial program on in the background. And I say, "What are you listening to?" "Nothing," they say. And I tell them, "I know what you're listening to. Step away from the TV." They're glued to it, watching stock performance, financial news and anaylsis, driving themselves crazy with short-term anxiety and fear. And that leads to the second step in going back to basics: remembering that investing isn t short term. They need to re-embrace the lessons of life-long investing that they learned from their parents. They ve forgotten about the days when their grandfather would buy stock in Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, General Electric, Procter & Gamble solid U.S. large-cap companies that paid consistent dividends.

2 And you know what their parents and grandparents used to do? They'd put the stock certificates out of sight in a safety deposit box and they d forget they had them. And if and when they had a little extra money, they d buy a few more shares and put those away too. And you know what they would notice? As the years went by, they'd see the dividend income rise and feel like they got a raise. Years would go by and they wouldn t know what those stocks in their safety deposit boxes were even worth. All they would see each year is that they got another raise, and they'd watch their income rise. They would just own a piece of America, sit on these stocks and plan to leave them to their kids and grandkids. I have clients to this day who own inherited stocks like that. Their effective yield-to-cost is astronomical. I think people have forgotten about this style of long-term investing because we live in an instant-gratification culture, with 24-hour news and information, so nothing s ever out of sight or out of mind. What we need to do is re-quantify a reasonable investment time-frame as five-plus years. This means not checking performance day-by-day, month-by-month, quarter-by-quarter, but rather with a long-term focus. Let me ask you something: If I could give you a 5-7 year CD right now at 4%, but there would be a 20% penalty if you cashed it in early what would your reaction be? You and lots of other people would probably say, "Oh my God, I'll take that!" You would have to promise not to touch the money for five or seven years, but you d get 4% interest per year. Well, guess what: You can put together an investment portfolio of great U.S. blue chip stocks right now that are paying close to 4% and that have a history of increasing dividends. But most people aren t patient enough to leave things alone for a five-to-seven year period because they have too much exposure to short-term information and they lose track of why they invested the money in the first place for income. Wally Forbes: Right. Let me ask you this, are you suggesting that high-yield is the first thing you look at? You originally mentioned the blue chips of their day when you were looking to the past. Is yield now your first screen? Or is that not necessarily the case? Reiser: Well, realistically, there are three screens. One: high-dividend yield. Two: low-priceearnings discipline. And three: a history of growing dividends. Forbes: Growing dividends. Reiser: Yes. Increasing dividends, year after year. An example of this style is a portfolio managed by a New York firm called Schafer Cullen. According to them, if you had invested with them in 1999, your dividend yield on your portfolio would ve been about 3.3%. Twelve years later, the dividend yield on that same portfolio had an effective yield-to-cost of over 8%. So can you imagine? Think about this: I locked you in on a long-term CD in 1999 paying 3.3%. And now, when rates are in the toilet and things are terrible and you can't get any decent CD rates or bond rates, what you're looking at is an 8% yield. Even today with a current yield about

3 4%, I can say to senior citizens or middle-class income earners, "I can get you 4% on your money, but you have to promise to leave it alone and forget about it for at least five years. Look, investing is a five-year minimum cycle. Be honest with people. Tell them, just like Benjamin Graham said, that that you need to have discipline. Buying good dividend-yielding stocks at reasonable prices and holding them for five years or longer historically produces good returns. And if you're buying the stocks I'm talking about, which have histories of 20, 25 years of increasing dividends, you should continue to get a raise like your parents, your grandparents, your great-grandparents used to. And realistically, Wally, seniors don't want to spend their principal, they want to leave it to their kids. Forbes: Understand. Reiser: Because they realize that if they spend their principal, they won't have the income. Listen, I ve been doing this for over 26 years, and I know full well that CDs aren t the same as stocks, and that each bear different risks. But in today s world, when people are spending principal because they don t have enough to live on due to low interest rates, it s wise to explore other historically prudent strategies. So in the strategy that I ve been describing, I want people to concentrate on the year-after-year income they re getting rather than the fluctuating value of these stocks. Forbes: And you're not necessarily restricting purchases to what you call, "blue chips? Reiser: Well, I do like large-cap dividends. Forbes: Why don't you give us some examples? Reiser: First, I like Chevron (NYSE: CVX) right now. Morgan Stanley has an overweight recommendation on Chevron. We like it very much. It's paying almost a three-and-a-half-percent dividend. But what's really awesome about this company right now is its dividend history. This year will be the 20th consecutive year of increases in its dividend. Forbes: Wow. Reiser: Its payout ratio is low, only 28%, and it has wonderful free cash flow. And this is a great company. It s currently priced at about $103 a share. We have a $120 price target and Citi has a $128 target. And while that's okay, I'm primarily interested in its dividends and potential increases each year. Forbes: With the dividend increase each year, that s good. Reiser: Chevron has a five-year dividend growth rate of almost 10%. And over the last year the stock is still up, which is beautiful. That's a great stock.

4 Next, let s talk about Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM). Since the spinoff in 2008, it has had five consecutive dividend increases. The current stock yield is 3.9%. This is also an overweight recommendation by Morgan Stanley. We have a $95 target on the stock and Citi has a $98 target. Forbes: Where is it approximately now in the market? Reiser: Right now it is about $87. Forbes: $87 and you're looking for a $95 target. Reiser: We're looking for $95. But that's irrelevant because what's relevant right now is the yield. You're getting close to a 4% dividend yield right now on it. And if you go back and you look over the past five years, the average increase has been 13%. Let's say that you get an 8% dividend increase over the next ten years. Well, what that means is that if I hold this thing for ten years, I'm going to go from 4% to over 8% on my dividend yield-to-cost. This is something income investors should consider. Forbes: Got you. Reiser: And you know what? That's better than any bond portfolio's going to give you. Forbes: Yes, for sure. Reiser: Let's talk about another great stock, AT&T (NYSE:T). It s got a 5.4% dividend yield. AT&T s a great company with 27 years, I believe, of increasing dividend yields. Morgan Stanley is looking for a $36 target on AT&T and Citi has a $39 target. And the stock is currently trading at about $34. But again, I'm not looking at this stock in terms of just price appreciation; I m looking for income. So there you have three stocks paying good dividends with a history of increasing dividends. But I'm not suggesting that an investor goes out and buys one or two or all three of these stocks piecemeal. You need to own a portfolio of these types of stocks to provide diversification and greater protection over the long run. Now I know that a lot of people are going to ask, "What about potential changes in the tax rates?" I'm going to tell you right now, if you look historically, changes in tax rates have no effects on these dividend stocks over the long run. There might be a short-term reaction, but according to Morgan Stanley, these high-dividend-yielders typically recover six months after a tax increase. But over the long term if you're buying these stocks for five years or longer there's really no reason to be concerned about potential tax increases. And with senior citizens and middle-class Americans typically earning under $250,000 a year, it shouldn't make a difference anyway. Forbes: You've given us three very well-known stocks. And they meet your criteria. What do

5 you think is the minimal number of stocks over which somebody ought to spread the risk through diversification? Reiser: Well, that's why I recommend having an actively managed portfolio. In today's world I think someone needs to be watching your investments. It's prudent. For example, the portfolio manager I mentioned before, Schafer Cullen, has about 30 companies in the high-dividendyielding portfolio. Forbes: Is that what you think would be a minimum that an individual investor should look at to have the diversification that you think is needed? Reiser: I think if you have 30 companies, you'll be diversified enough if they're the right ones. You don't want to be in a situation where you could hurt yourself by having too much in any one company. Forbes: Good. Very to-the-point and very timely because, as you said, a lot of people are having a tough time making ends meet on the income they're getting from their portfolios. Reiser: Honestly, Wally, it breaks my heart. I'm so sad for people who are struggling and for our nation. As you know, I started at the old firm, Kidder Peabody, back in the day when people respected the knowledge and advice of their financial advisor like their doctors or lawyers. Forbes: I think you're right. Reiser: We're living in a world where people are struggling because they don't value long-term investment advice like they used to, because fear trumps knowledge. If we can just inform and educate people and take away that fear and mistrust, can you imagine a senior citizen going from 0.5% interest to 4% income that they can spend? That s eight times the spendable income! That's a service to them and to our nation. And at this time of struggle, I think that all financial advisors have an opportunity to help more people than ever in this country's history and an obligation to do so in a prudent manner by laying this out in the way that we just discussed. Forbes: That's an admirable objective. Reiser: You know, my dad taught me that my handshake is my bond. And it would be amazing, in today's world, to get back to that. Forbes: That is terrific to hear and terrific to have a very specific way of meeting that objective. I want to thank you, sir, very much. Reiser: No, thank you. I hope it does some good. David R. Reiser is the author of Letters From Home: A Wake-Up Call for Success & Wealth (John Wiley & Sons, 2010). All proceeds from the sale of this book are donated to charity.

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