The yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries declined more than 30 basis points during the month, to 2.68% at December 31, 2018.

Transcription

1 December commentary Global Infrastructure Securities Strategy Global equities decline meaningfully in December Global equities, as measured by the MSCI World Index, fell 7.6% in December. It was the largest onemonth decline for the index since May The North American region of the index was down 9.0%, Asia Pacific declined 5.1% and Europe was off 4.6%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index declined 9.0%. It was the worst December for the U.S. blue chip index since Markets declined amid a combination around fears of slowing global economic growth, as well as tighter monetary policy. Economic data from China revealed that growth in the region has slowed sharply in recent months. 1 And in the U.S., the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey indicated that nearly half of U.S. chief financial officers believe a U.S. recession will occur in 2019, with more than 80% seeing one by At its December meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve s Federal Open Market Committee announced it would raise the target range for the federal funds rate another 25 basis points, to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. At the press conference following the announcement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared to spook markets when he indicated the unwinding of the Fed s balance sheet holdings would remain on autopilot. 3 Also during the month, the European Central Bank confirmed it would formally end its multi-trillion bondbuying program which began in March The yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries declined more than 30 basis points during the month, to 2.68% at December 31, Global infrastructure equities outperform Both the FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index and the Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index outperformed broader global equities, declining 3.5% and 4.8%, respectively, in December. By region within the Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index, the Americas fell 5.5%, Europe declined 4.3% and Asia Pacific was down 1.0%. Sector losses within the index were led by Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation ( 6.2%), followed by Communications ( 5.5%), Ports ( 4.7%), Diversified ( 4.5%), Electricity Transmission & Distribution ( 4.0%), Water ( 2.4%) and Airports ( 0.9%). Only Toll Roads (+1.3%) posted gains in December. The Alerian MLP Index declined 9.4%. Market activity and industry news France s Vinci (DG.FP, Toll Roads, Continental Europe) is taking advantage of a Brexit hit to U.K. asset prices to buy a majority stake in Britain s second-busiest airport, London s Gatwick, for 2.9 billion pounds. The deal to buy a percent stake gives Vinci, which already runs 45 airports in 12 countries, access

2 to the world s largest metropolitan aviation market and is part of the company s drive to expand its most promising businesses. 5 Ørsted US Offshore Wind has received approval from Connecticut regulators of its 20-year power-purchase agreement for the Revolution Wind offshore wind farm. Connecticut s Public Utilities Regulatory Authority approved Ørsted s long-term power-purchase agreement with Eversource and United Illuminating, two Connecticut utilities, for the 200 megawatts of clean energy that Revolution Wind will deliver to Connecticut. 6 Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PCG, Electricity Transmission & Distribution, U.S.) said in a court filing that any determination the company started a wildfire by recklessly operating power lines in violation of law would bear on its probation in a criminal case. A U.S. judge had asked the company to explain any role it may have played in a massive wildfire that destroyed the Northern California town of Paradise and killed at least 86 people. Judge William Alsup also wanted to know how any determination that PG&E's reckless operation of power lines caused a wildfire would affect the criminal sentence he is overseeing against the utility. That 2017 sentence followed PG&E's conviction on charges stemming from a deadly 2010 gas pipeline explosion in the San Francisco Bay Area. 7 Outlook We recently decreased our exposure to energy infrastructure to broadly reduce risk in the portfolio amid heightened volatility. However, our outlook for the sector remains largely unchanged. We remain optimistic based on several factors: we believe volume growth is strong, valuations remain compelling and we think capital markets are recognizing the right projects. New projects continue to be announced to address takeaway constraints for crude oil and natural gas in key U.S. basins. As such, we believe these constraints should be short lived. Additionally, we are encouraged by the way corporate governance structures are improving and the shift toward models that are less reliant on equity markets to fund growth. We maintain our preference for utilities exposed to low-cost renewables generation, as well as those located in favorable regulatory environments. We continue to monitor the regulatory impacts from the wildfires in California as new information comes to light. Regulatory risk also remains a concern for us among Chinese utilities, where regulatory changes can be swift and unexpected. We have seen select opportunities emerge, however, as these stocks have sold off in recent months. We have also begun to see some attractive relative valuations emerge among select European utilities. Overall traffic trends in Europe remain favorable, where we prefer toll roads over airports. We recently took a more positive view on select toll roads in Brazil after meeting with management teams, in addition to the greater clarity in the market amid the election outcome. Conversely, we reduced our exposure to Mexico after the election of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who announced the cancellation of the partially completed $13 billion airport in Mexico City. We have shifted our holdings among U.S. communication tower companies toward those we view to be more defensive in nature. Among satellite operators, we are monitoring developments around the C-band spectrum. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is considering repurposing a portion of that spectrum for next-generation 5G services; and we continue to evaluate the value of these spectrum rights. Given the recent volatility across global equity markets, we believe infrastructure assets are well positioned to generate attractive relative returns. These long-lived assets, which are natural monopolies with significant barriers to entry, tend to be highly cash generative with stable and visible cash flows. As such, they have Page 2

3 historically been shown to exhibit positive relative performance when volatility is present and broader equities decline. Page 3

4 Disclosures As of January Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC. Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser and represents the Public Securities platform of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. ( BAM ), providing global listed real assets strategies including real estate equities, infrastructure equities, multi-strategy real asset solutions and real asset debt. Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of BAM. Dan C. Tutcher, is a Managing Director of the Brookfield Public Securities Group on the Energy Infrastructure Securities team. Mr. Tutcher also serves on the Board of Enbridge, Inc. The Fund s adviser has adopted policies and procedures to address potential conflicts of interest while allowing the Adviser to continue to invest in Enbridge Companies. However, from time to time, the Adviser may restrict trading which may prevent any BIM Fund from acquiring or disposing of securities of Enbridge Companies at a favorable time. Spectra Energy Corp is an affiliate of Enbridge Inc. The information in this commentary is not and is not intended as investment advice or prediction of investment performance. This information is deemed to be from reliable sources; however, Brookfield does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This commentary is not intended to and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, product or service (nor shall any security, product or service be offered or sold) in any jurisdiction in which Brookfield is not licensed to conduct business, and/or an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unavailable or unlawful. Performance shown in USD unless otherwise noted. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions of Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC and are subject to change without notice. The mention of specific securities is not a recommendation or solicitation for any person to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Any outlooks or forecasts presented herein are as of the date appearing on this material only and are also subject to change without notice. Each fund, account and investment vehicle in this strategy is managed individually. No assurance that any specific fund, separate account or other investment vehicle managed by Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC has previously or currently holds the names referenced herein. There is no guarantee that the specific securities discussed herein or held by any specific fund, account, or other investment vehicle managed by Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC were profitable or will be profitable. Information herein contains, includes or is based upon forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, specifically Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements include all statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address future activities, events, or developments, including without limitation, business or investment strategy or measures to implement strategy, competitive strengths, goals, expansion and growth of our business, plans, prospects and references to our future success. You can identify these statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Words such as anticipate, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe, and other similar words are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Many such factors will be important in determining our actual future results or outcomes. Consequently, no forward-looking statement can be guaranteed. Our actual results or outcomes may vary materially. Given these uncertainties, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. INDEX PROVIDER DISCLAIMER Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC does not own or participate in the construction, or day-to-day management of the indices referenced in this document. The index information provided is for your information only and does not imply or predict that a Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC product will achieve similar results. This information is subject to change without notice. Page 4

5 The Indices referenced in this document do not reflect any fees, expenses, sales charges, or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The index sponsors permit use of their indices and related data on an "As Is" basis, makes no warranties regarding same, does not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness, and/ or completeness of their index or any data included in, related to, or derived therefrom, assumes no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing. The index sponsors have no liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential, or other damages (including loss profits). The index sponsors do not sponsor, endorse, or recommend Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC or any of its products or services. For Institutional Use Only and may not be reproduced, shown, quoted to, or used with members of the public. Definitions The MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index gives participants an industry-defined interpretation of infrastructure and adjusts the exposure to certain infrastructure sub-sectors. The constituent weights are adjusted as part of the semi-annual review according to three broad industry sectors - 50% Utilities, 30% Transportation including capping of 7.5% for railroads/railways and a 20% mix of other sectors including pipelines, satellites and telecommunication towers. Company weights within each group are adjusted in proportion to their investable market capitalization. The Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index is calculated and maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indexes and comprises infrastructure companies with at least 70% of their annual cash flows derived from owning and operating infrastructure assets. Brookfield does not have direct responsibility in managing the Index. The Alerian MLP Index is a composite of the 50 most prominent energy master limited partnerships ("MLPs") calculated by Standard & Poor's using a float-adjusted market-capitalization methodology. The index is disseminated by the New York Stock Exchange real-time on a price return basis (NYSE: AMZ) and on a total-return basis (NYSE: AMZX). The S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return version of the S&P 500 Index. Dividends are reinvested on a daily basis and the base date for the index is January 1, All regular cash dividends are assumed reinvested in the S&P 500 Index on the ex-date. Special cash dividends trigger a price adjustment in the price return index. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note is a debt obligation issued by the United States government that matures in 10 years and pays interest at a fixed rate once every six months and pays the face value to the holder at maturity. Page 5