QUARTERLY FUND HIGHLIGHTS

Transcription

1 Global Economic Highlights The Trinidadian economy is estimated to have grown by 3.1% for the first quarter of 2018, with the energy sector improving by 9.1%and the non-energy industry declining by 0.2%. Over the first nine months of 2018, the energy sector remained on its upward trajectory, with oil closing the quarter at US$73.25/barrel. Based on the positive performance of oil and the upcoming budget presentation, we expect to see continued improvement in fiscal performance The Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago (CBTT) maintained the repo rate at 5.0% in September 2018 based on low inflation and concentrated growth in the energy sector. It is anticipated that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at least three more times over the next 12 months, which would in turn push the CBTT to increase rates in order to stem capital flight The current account as a share of GDP increased to 21.4% for the first quarter of 2018, which was higher than the 13.7% that was seen for the same period of This improvement continued to be driven primarily by energy exports. Despite relatively higher inflows from oil and gas exports, the net international reserve (NIR) declined quarter over quarter by 4.5% to US$7.46B. Year to date, NIR is 10.8% lower than the same period last year With the continued rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield, GOTT global bond have declined by 3.4% since the start of Increased pressure has been noted for Petrotrin given the uncertainty regarding the change in its business model and the impact on the refinancing of the August 2019 bond The US economy has benefited from moderate growth, strengthening leading indicators, modest inflation, gradually rising interest rates, recent tax cuts and increases to fiscal spending. Unemployment is at historic lows and inflation has increased significantly. Tariffs on imported goods have however resulted in heightened trade tensions Source: Scotia Investments Jamaica Limited, October 2018 Scotiabank Global Economics, Global Outlook, October 2018 Historical Fund and Portfolio Performance, all data is reported in the base currency of the Fund. Returns are net of management fees and fund expenses are expressed as a percentage which are based on Class A assets and currencies. Returns are annualized with the exception of periods less than one year. Inception Since Funds Date Month Months Months YTD Year Years Years years Inception Scotiabank Money Market Fund (USD) 10/27/ BofAML US US Treasury Bills 0-3 Mon Total Return USD Scotiabank US Dollar Bond Fund (USD) 12/21/ BofAML US Corp & Govt Master Total Return USD Scotia Caribbean Income Fund (USD) 03/31/ N/A 4.93 Scotia Caribbean Bond Index N/A Scotiabank Global Growth Fund (USD) 06/23/ MSCI All Country World Net Return USD Scotiabank US Growth Fund (USD) 10/27/ S&P 500 Total Return USD Scotiabank Canadian Growth Fund (USD) 06/23/ S&P/TSX Composite Total Return USD Scotiabank TT Fixed Income Fund 10/17/ N/A N/A 0.78 Blended Benchmark* N/A N/A N/A Scotiabank TT Growth Fund 10/17/ N/A N/A 1.02 Blended Benchmark ** N/A N/A N/A *Blended benchmark: 10% 90 day T-Bill, 45% GOTT 1 Year T-Bill Yield, and 45% Merrill Lynch U.S.Corporate & Government Bond Index ** Blended benchmark: 10% cash, 10% Trinidad & Tobago Fixed Income, 10% Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate & Government Bond Index, 35% Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange, 35% MSCI World. The above benchmarks (and composite benchmarks) are selected based on characteristics representative of the individual funds.the performance data provided is for Class A and is net of all applicable fund expenses and management fees, assumes reinvestment of all dividends/distributions but does not take into account sales charges, redemptions, distributions or taxes that would have reduced returns. Performance is subject to variation and is likely to change over time. Past performance should not be treated as an indicator of future performance. Returns for periods less than one year are not annualized. The performance data provided is not intended to reflect future value of any mutual fund or returns on investment in any mutual fund. 1

2 Fund Highlights Below is information on what specifically affected the performance of each fund, and how the Portfolio Manager is positioning the fund going forward. Scotiabank Money Market Fund (US$) The yield of the Fund, before fees, increased from 2.17% to 2.22% during the quarter The Fund s holdings of floating rate notes were the primary contributor to performance due to their variable coupons that reset at a higher rate following recent interest rate increases Scotiabank US Dollar Bond Fund (US$) The Fund s holdings of conservative corporate contributed to returns as credit spreads narrowed The lower duration for the Fund relative to the index had a positive impact on returns due to an increase in yields on US Treasury The Fund s return was affected by an under allocation to commercial paper which resulted from its low supply in the market The Fund s holdings of of different maturities (yield curve positioning) had a slight negative impact on returns as yields increased more on shorter-term The Fund increased its exposure to Canadian provincial money market issues due to their attractive yield This resulted in a lower allocation to shortterm and government guaranteed issues The Fund s duration was slightly lower than the benchmark to reduce interest rate risk The Fund holds high quality corporate to reduce credit risk The yield of the Fund is expected to increase as US interest rates are forecast to rise by 1% over the next 12 months Higher interest rates are forecast due to strong US growth, low unemployment, moderate inflation and positive economic indicators The yields on both the 2-Yr and 10-Yr increased during the quarter by 29 bps and 20 bps respectively, resulting in a flattening of the yield curve Credit spreads decreased from 1.30% to 1.13% at the end of Q3 and were below their 5-year average of 1.33% Higher interest rates and continued economic growth may result in an increase in yields on both short and long-term 2

3 Scotia Caribbean Income Fund (US$) Portfolio Manager: Scotia Investments Jamaica Ltd. The Fund s selection of non-caribbean sovereigns positively impacted performance during the quarter. This was driven by exposure to high quality assets including Chilean Scotiabank Global Growth Fund (US$) Portfolio Manager: Davis Advisors The Fund s lack of exposure to the real estate and consumer staples sectors contributed to performance during the quarter, relative to the index The Fund s top contributors to performance, relative to the index, were Amazon, a US-based multinational e-commerce and cloud computing company, Sul America, Brazil s 2nd largest insurance company, and Google, a US-based internet technology company Scotiabank U.S. Growth Fund (US$) Portfolio Manager: Davis Advisors The Fund s lack of exposure to the real estate, materials and utilities sectors were the leading contributors to returns during the quarter, relative to the index, as those sectors underperformed The Fund s top contributor to performance, relative to the index, was Amazon, a US-based multinational e-commerce and cloud computing company, Berkshire Hathaway, a multinational holding company, and Google, a US-based internet technology company The Fund experienced notable price declines in Trinidadian and Aruban global The Fund s underweight exposure to Caribbean sovereign detracted from performance when compared to the benchmark The Fund s selection of corporate detracted from performance with notable declines in Petrotrin and Sagicor bond The Fund s investments within the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors detracted from returns during the quarter, relative to the index The holdings that were the largest detractors from returns, relative to the index, were JD.com, a Chinese e-commerce company, New Oriental, a provider of educational services in China, and Naspers, a South African multinational internet and media company The Fund s investments within the information technology, financial and health care sectors were the leading detractors from returns during the quarter, relative to the index The holdings that were the largest detractors from returns, relative to the index, were Facebook, a US-based online social networking service, Adient, a US automotive seating company, and General Electric, an American multinational conglomerate Reduce exposure to money market securities and deploy cash to purchase based on reduction in global bond Monitor to increase exposure to attractive non-caribbean sovereign Rebalance corporate bond holdings Continue to manage the duration of the Fund to mitigate the impact of rising rates The Fund s holdings in the consumer discretionary sector were 12% higher than that of the index at the end of Q3 The Fund had an 11% higher exposure to the information technology sector than the index The Fund generally does not invest in the telecommunications or utilities sectors due to low expected earnings growth The Fund had a regional allocation of 48% US, 23% China and 16% Europe. Emerging markets represented 31% of assets At quarter-end, the financial sector (+25%) was the only significantly large relative overweight position in the Fund Investments in the financial sector were diversified across banks (Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, US Bancorp), securities custodians (BNY Mellon), credit card companies (Capital One, AMEX), Insurers (Chubb, Markel) and holding companies (Berkshire, Loews) The Fund had a large underweight position, relative to the benchmark, in the information technology (-11%) and health care (-10%) sectors The Fund does not generally invest in the telecommunications or utilities sectors due to low expected earnings growth Expectation of at least one additional interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve in 2018 Continued market volatility given ongoing trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners Ongoing geopolitical risks Slowdown in issuance of fixed income securities as interest rates continue to increase The global economy remains strong but has likely passed from peak growth to a more mature stage of the business cycle US equities were supported by revenue growth and an expansion of corporate earnings, partially due to tax cuts International equities generally rose but Europe was affected by ongoing Brexit negotiations, China was affected by trade tension with the US, and many markets experienced slower growth Market volatility remains elevated due to the late stage of the business cycle, elevated trade tensions and tightening monetary policy Gains in US equities were driven by higher revenues, tax cuts and moderate wage growth The US manufacturing sector is forecast to have its largest increase in 7 years in 2018, followed by a slightly lower increase in 2019 Market volatility remains elevated due to the late stage of the business cycle, valuations and an escalation of trade tensions with China The US Fed is forecast to raise interest rates by 1% over the next year 3

4 Scotiabank Canadian Growth Fund (US$) The Fund outperformed its benchmark by 200 basis points during the quarter The Fund s investments in the materials and consumer discretionary sectors were the largest contributors to returns relative to the benchmark The Fund s top relative contributors to performance in the quarter were Intact Financial, the largest property and casualty insurer in Canada, Canadian National Railway, a leading railroad operator, and Couche Tarde, a multinational convenience store operator The Fund s lack of exposure to health care stocks detracted from performance as this was the best performing sector The Fund s top relative detractors during the quarter were Franco-Nevada, a mining company, PrairieSky Royalty, an energy producer, and Saputo, a top 10 global dairy company Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Fixed Income Fund Portfolio Manager: Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago The Fund s selection of Trinidadian local positively contributed to its performance Overweight exposure to foreign government contributed to performance relative to the benchmark The Fund s overweight exposure to cash, foreign corporate (Petrotrin and Sagicor) and TT mutual funds all detracted from performance during the quarter The Fund s underweight exposure to Trinidadian local detracted from its performance relative to the benchmark Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Growth Fund Portfolio Manager: Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago The Fund had a lower allocation than the benchmark to the health care sector The Fund had a higher allocation than the benchmark to the consumer discretionary sector The Fund had 2.4% exposure to US securities Increase local TTD government and corporate Increase exposure to short duration USD, given reduction in bond and expectation of further rate hikes Reduce holdings of money market securities The S&P/TSX experienced a gain in the financial sector but was offset by losses in the energy and materials sectors due to lower commodity Growth is expected to be supported by increased business investment and exports The Canadian Dollar has appreciated relative to the US Dollar, due in part to the completion of a revised free trade agreement with the US and Mexico, potentially higher rates, and positive growth The Bank of Canada is expected to increase interest rates by 1% over the next year due to capacity constraints and inflationary pressures The economy is expected to show mild recovery in 2018 due to a rebound in gas and oil and increased gas throughput CBTT may increase local benchmark interest rates by a further 25bps due to the US Federal Reserve s action With higher oil the Government s revenue should continue to be higher than budgeted, which will likely cause a reduction in government borrowing on the local market The Fund s selection of mutual funds including energy ETFs and US-listed stocks were the primary contributors The Fund s selection of TT equities positively contributed to performance as there were positive price movements in NCB, JMMB, MASSY and TTNGL The Fund s underweight allocation to TT equities and TT local were also positive contributors during the quarter The Fund s overweight exposure to money market securities and foreign corporate detracted from performance as interest rate increases affected bond Continue rebalancing the TT equity portfolio to include local and cross-listed stocks Increase indirect USD equity exposure to benefit from expected positive performance of the US market Increase TTD corporate and government exposure to reduce the downside risk of the Fund Reduce cash holdings The TT stock market is expected to be flat in the near term Cross-listed stocks are expected to generate positive returns, albeit lower than during the 2017 calendar year The US stock market should continue its positive momentum, however, higher volatility is expected as the Trump administration executes its policies 4

5 Important information concerning the investment goals, risks, charges and expenses of investing in the mutual funds contained in the Portfolio are contained in the relevant prospectus. Investors should carefully consider these before investing. Copies are available from the financial institution where you are buying the portfolio and should be read carefully before investing. Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investing in mutual funds. Mutual funds are not guaranteed or covered by your local deposit insurance corporation, other government deposit insurer, the Bank of Nova Scotia, or its subsidiaries/affiliates. Their values change frequently, including the amount of income that you may receive (where applicable), and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Information on performance provided herein is subject to variation and is likely to change over time. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be treated as an indicator of future performance. The indicated rates of return are the historical returns including changes in share value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales charges or fees, redemptions, distributions or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice. Always consult your professional tax and legal advisors with respect to your particular circumstances. Nothing herein is intended to constitute an offer or solicitation to transact business for products or services in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be unlawful. This does not constitute an invitation to purchase or sell shares of the funds. Scotiabank Mutual Funds is the brand name under which The Scotiabank Group of Companies, including Scotiabank & Trust (Cayman) Ltd. and Scotia Investments Jamaica Limited, markets and distributes mutual funds. Davis Advisors is not a Bank of Nova Scotia subsidiary nor an affiliate. It is an independent investment management firm that provides portfolio management services Asset Management L.P. is a limited partnership, the general partner of which is wholly owned by Scotiabank and is the Investment Fund Manager for ScotiaFunds and Dynamic Funds. Receipts for the prospectus of the funds mentioned herein have been issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Securities & Exchange Commission who have not in any way evaluated the merits of these securities. Up to date net asset value information of the Scotiabank Mutual Funds can be found on Bloomberg, in the Equities section, and on the Cayman Islands Stock Exchange (CSX), website under Scotiabank. Up to date net asset value information of the Trinidad and Tobago Fixed Income Fund and the Trinidad and Tobago Growth Fund can be found on the website Mutual funds sold in Trinidad and Tobago are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Trinidad and Tobago. Registered Trademark of the Bank of Nova Scotia, used under license 5