BYLAAG: E-VIEWS RESULTATE VAN DIE MODEL VAN VOORRAADINVESTERING IN SUID-AFRIKA
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1 BYLAAG: E-VIEWS RESULTATE VAN DIE MODEL VAN VOORRAADINVESTERING IN SUID-AFRIKA 1 Die langtermynskatting 1.1 Resultate van die skatting Dependent Variable: LOG(I) Sample: 1986:1 2002:4 Included observations: 68 LOG(Q) LOG(S) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Die werklike waardes, geskatte waardes en reswaarde van die langtermynskatting
2 Die ADF-waarde van die reswaarde van die langtermynskatting ADF Test Statistic % Critical Value* % Critical Value % -Critical Value *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESID01) Sample(adjusted): 1986:2 2002:4 Included observations: 67 after adjusting endpoints RESID01(-1) C R-squared Mean dependent var -9.62E-05 Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Die MacKinnon kritiese waardes van die ADF-waarde om vir die nul hipotese van geen kointegrasie te toets Persentasie n=3 Model waarskynlikheid Waarde Konstante Konstante en neiging
3 2 Die korttermyn skatting 2.1 Resultate van die skatting Dependent Variable: DLOG(I) 237 Sample(adjusted): 1986:2 2002:4 Included observations: 67 after adjusting endpoints RESID01(-1) DLOG(U(-1)) DLOG(G_S(-1)) DLOG(R(-2)) DLOG(P(-3)) DLOG(Q(-2)) C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Die werklike waardes, geskatte waardes en reswaarde van die korttermynskatting
4 2.3 Diagnostiesetoetse, Die ADF-waarde van die reswaarde van die korttermynskatting ADF Test Statistic % Critical Value* % Critical Value % Critical Value *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESID01ECM) Sample(adjusted): 1986:3 2002:4 Included observations: 66 after adjusting endpoints RESID01ECM(-1) C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Histogram normaliteit
5 2.3.3 ARCH heteroskedastisiteit 239 ARCH Test: F-statistic Probability Obs*R-squared Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Sample(adjusted): 1987:2 2002:4 Included observations: 63 after adjusting endpoints C E RESID^2(-1) RESID^2(-2) RESID^2(-3) RESID^2(-4) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 4.22E-06 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
6 2.3.4 White heteroskedastisiteit 240 White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic Probability Obs*R-squared Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Sample: 1986:2 2002:4 Included observations: 67 C 8.50E E RESID01(-1) RESID01(-1)^ DLOG(U(-1)) (DLOG(U(-1)))^ DLOG(G_S(-1)) (DLOG(G_S(-1)))^ DLOG(R(-2)) (DLOG(R(-2)))^ DLOG(P(-3)) (DLOG(P(-3)))^ DLOG(Q(-2)) (DLOG(Q(-2)))^ R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 4.05E-06 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
7 Breusch-Godfrey reekskorrelasie-lm-toets Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Probability Obs*R-squared Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. RESID01(-1) DLOG(U(-1)) DLOG(G_S(-1)) DLOG(R(-2)) DLOG(P(-3)) DLOG(Q(-2)) C -1.54E RESID(-1) RESID(-2) RESID(-3) RESID(-4) R-squared Mean dependent var -7.25E-19 Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
8 2.3.6 Ramsey-reset-toets Ramsey RESET Test: 242 F-statistic Probability Log likelihood ratio Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: DLOG(I) Sample: 1986:2 2002:4 Included observations: 67 RESID01(-1) DLOG(U(-1)) DLOG(G_S(-1)) DLOG(R(-2)) DLOG(P(-3)) DLOG(Q(-2)) C FITTED^ FITTED^ R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) CUSUM-toetse
9 Die derde-stap-prosedure van Engle en Yoo Dependent Variable: RESID02ECM Sample(adjusted): 1986:2 2002:4 Included observations: 67 after adjusting endpoints ( )*(LOG(Q)) ( )*(LOG(S)) R-squared Mean dependent var 1.11E-18 Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Die berekening van die aangepasde koëffisiënte en t-waardes Variable Engle en Yoo koëffisiënte Engle en Granger koëffisiënte Nuwe koëffisiënte Engle en Yoo Std. fout Nuwe t- waardes a b a+b c (a+b)/c LOG(Q) > 1.96 LOG(S) > Die model LOG(I) = * DLOG(U(-1)) * DLOG(G_S(-1)) * DLOG(R(-2)) * DLOG(P(-3)) * DLOG(Q(-2)) - ( * ( log(i(-1)) * LOG(Q(-1)) * LOG(S(-1)))) + LOG(I(-1)) d_i = d(i) 2.7 Die werklike waardes, geskatte waardes en reswaarde van die model
10 244 3 E-views resultate van die SARB95-model van voorraadinvestering in Suid-Afrika Dependent Variable: D_I Sample: 1975:1 2002:4 Included observations: 112 S(-1) T*S(-1) E I(-2) S-G_S C PDL PDL R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 1.78E+08 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Lag Distribution i Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic * * * * * Sum of Lags Lag Distribution i Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic. * * * * * Sum of Lags
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