Moving forward. Oliver Bäte Member of the Board of Management. Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference London, March 19, 2013

Transcription

1 Moving forward Oliver Bäte Member of the Board of Management Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference London, March 19, 2013

2 1 Moving forward results review 2 Strategic priorities in Europe 3 Summary 2

3 2012 results review Highlights of the 2012 results Total revenues increase 2.7 percent to EUR 106.4bn Operating profit grows 20.8 percent to EUR 9.5bn Shareholders net income doubles to EUR 5.2bn Solvency I ratio increases by 18%-points to 197% 3

4 2012 results review Strong results despite difficult environment EUR bn Key drivers 2012/11 development Total revenues % Solid growth in Property-Casualty and excellent growth in Asset Management Operating profit % 9.5 All operating segments contribute to strong operating profit increase Net income Net income % 5.5 Shareholders net income 5, , , Net income almost doubles supported by lower impairments in ) Internal growth 0.5%, adjusted for F/X and consolidation effects 4

5 2012 results review Operating profit exceeds target range Operating profit 2012 (EUR bn) Target range published 02/12 P/C CR 96.3% Low NatCat L/H Total AuM up 11.8% Higher investment margin AM Strong net inflows Higher performance fees Co. & Con As expected Total Outlook increased to > 9bn in 10/12 5

6 2012 results review Operating profit outlook 2013 Operating profit (EUR bn) to bn bn adjusted 1 P/C L/H AM CO + Conso. Group Outlook 2013 Range of operating profit outlook reflects diversification Disclaimer: Impact from NatCat, financial markets and global economic development not predictable! 1) From 2013 onwards restructuring costs will be classified as operating 6

7 2012 results review P/C solid operating performance Revenues (EUR bn) +4.7% Operating profit (EUR mn) +12.5% ,719 4, Revenue growth due to both positive price and volume effects Strong increase in operating profit driven by underwriting result Combined ratio down by 1.5%-points with significant improvements in Germany, Italy and Reinsurance NatCat with 1.7%-points combined ratio impact below normalized level Combined ratio (%) 7

8 2012 results review L/H strong performance in challenging environment Revenues (EUR bn) -1.0% Operating profit (EUR mn) +22.1% ,955 2, Selective growth with focus on margins Operating profit substantially improved due to rebound of investment margin New business margin solid at 1.8% Operating asset base up 10%, operating investment income up 20% Operating asset base (EUR bn) New business margin (%) 8

9 2012 results review L/H resilient margins and strong buffers Business in force (based on Ø aggregate policy reserves) New business 5.0% Current yield 1 5.3% 270bp Covered bonds 10ys mat., ~3.7% 77% A or better Government bonds 16ys maturity, ~3.5% 98% BBB or better ~3.6% 190bp Total 2 yield % Ømin. guarantee strong buffer EUR 19bn of RfB equal 5.7% of aggregate policy reserves Corporate bonds 10ys mat., ~3.8% 95% BBB or better ~28% ABS/MBS ~14% ~4% ~54% Reinvestment yield F/I 2012 ~1.7% Ø guarantee new business e ~2.0% 1) Based on IFRS current interest and similar income (net of interest expenses) 2) Based on IFRS current interest and similar income (net of interest expenses) + net harvesting and other (operating) 3) Weighted by aggregate policy reserves 9

10 2012 results review AM another excellent year 3rd party AuM (EUR bn) 1, % 1, Operating profit (EUR mn) 2, % 3, Growing AuM drive revenues and profitability Operating profit on an all-time high and 2nd highest in the Group Strong 3rd party net inflows of EUR 113.6bn Excellent cost-income ratio of 55.6% Share of outperforming assets at outstanding 96% (PIMCO) / 62% (AllianzGI) Performance fees substantially above medium-term average 3rd party net inflows (EUR bn) Cost-income ratio (%) 10

11 2012 results review Investments growth in operating asset base mitigates declining yields Operating asset base 1 (EUR bn) AM L/H P/C ,186 1,239 1,240 CAGR 9.0% 1,133 1,401 1,679 1,811 2,019 CAGR 10.9% 6.9% % Interest and similar income plus AM fee and commission income 2 (EUR bn) AM L/H P/C CAGR 6.0% ) Investments for P/C and L/H incl. unit-linked assets; 3rd party assets for AM 2) AM: excluding performance fees; L/H: before policyholder participation 11

12 2012 results review Capitalization strong and resilient Reduced asset/liability mismatch Spanish government bonds Asset duration extended by one year Conglomerate solvency ratio 179% 197% Exposure 3 halved to EUR 2.6bn Reduced financial cluster risks Exposure 1 in strategic stakes reduced by more than EUR 2bn 2 Economic solvency ratio 191% 199% Italian government bonds Exposure 3 reduced by EUR 3.3bn in H S&P capital adequacy (AA) Reduced banking debt Eurozone bank debt 3 reduced by EUR 2.1bn deficit surplus Lower minimum guarantees Ø guarantee for new Life business lowered by ~40bp to 1.7% 1) Delta based on fair values as per ) Includes divestments and hedging 3) Based on amortized cost 12

13 2012 results review Dividend balanced capital management DPS (EUR) e Attractive dividend yield for investors Healthy capital adequacy in volatile market environment Payout ratio (%) e Dividend yield (%) e 1) Proposal 2) Based on average share price of fiscal year (2012: EUR 87.23) 13

14 Moving forward 2 Moving forward Group results review 2 Strategic priorities in Europe 3 Summary 14

15 Strategic priorities in Western Europe Quick facts of the Europe 1 business division France Italy Belgium Netherlands Luxembourg Business division (BD) Western & Southern Europe is composed of 7 countries as well as Africa Substantial contribution to Group performance for both top- and bottom-line Greece Turkey 1) Full name of the business division is Western & Southern Europe (incl. Africa). All following numbers on the business division cover these 7 countries and Africa 15

16 Strategic priorities in Europe BD Europe 1 delivered exceptional profitability development during recent years Life/Health Property/Casualty GPW (EUR bn) OP (EUR mn) Net income (EUR mn) flat +19% 2 +24% , , , , ,144 1, In % of Group P/C & L/H Contributed ~ 1/4 of the Group s top-line and profits from the insurance segments 1) Full name of the business division is Western & Southern Europe (incl. Africa). Numbers on the business division include Africa and refer to insurance business only 2) CAGR 16

17 Strategic priorities in Europe Our strategic priorities for Maintain operating profit stability Reduce complexity across business entities Ensure profitable growth across segments Enhance sustainability in daily business 17

18 Strategic priorities in Europe Maintain resilient operating profit in P/C Italy, despite difficult market conditions Allianz Italy now 2nd largest P/C profit contributor within Allianz Group 2012 OP of Allianz top-5 P/C OEs (EUR mn) P/C Italy s combined ratio significantly better than market Avg. CR (%) -6.9%p Germany Italy AGCS France Credit insurance Allianz Market 1 Strategic priorities Achievement so far Grow in direct channel Genialloyd 2 with 20% growth in top-line, with high cost competitiveness Promote innovation SMS-based FastQuote application generated 51k new customers Secure customer satisfaction 88% of customers highly satisfied 1) Based on regulator data for and own best estimate as of 9M ) Direct business Italy 18

19 Strategic priorities in Europe Excellent operating profitability of Allianz Greece despite crisis Strong operating profits (EUR mn) P/C Life % -12% -8% -3% -11% Allianz Greece highly competitive Strong operating profitability in Combined ratio 82.4% - one of the best in Allianz Group - Returns well above cost of capital Fully de-risked investment portfolio - Highly rated core EU and supra-national assets - Sold remaining GGBs in 2012 Strong brand and customer satisfaction: - 3rd strongest brand in Greek market - Market leading NPS CR vs. Market 19

20 Strategic priorities in Europe Achieve leading productivity levels through Benelux integration Allianz 2012 GPW in Europe (EUR bn) Benefits: Streamlined governance: joint management functions Shared expertise: e.g. Dutch claims management, Belgian Life operations, central functions Shared investments: new IT and pricing tools Synergies: e.g. joint operating systems and integrated central functions DE FR IT CH ES BE 1 UK AT NL PL BeNeLux 1) Including Luxembourg 20

21 Strategic priorities in Europe Superior growth in Turkey Total GPW 1 growth Allianz Turkey (%) 16 Market +11%p Allianz Allianz Turkey picking up momentum Turkey is a high growth market, with double digit GPW growth (above GDP) Allianz growth significantly higher than the market in Prior to 2012 Allianz focused on profit protection, by intentionally not participating in irrationally low pricing - Starting from 2012 Allianz Turkey outperformed market growth, driven by all lines, particularly Motor 1) Including Life, P/C and Health 21

22 Strategic priorities in Europe combined with outstanding profit, especially in P/C (9M 2012, EUR mn) P/C market net income Loss-maker Σ -181 Profit-maker Σ 104 Axa (44) Yapı Kredi HDI Anadolu (24) (21) Allianz Ziraat Ergo (21) Mapfre G. Liberty Aviva (18) (17) Ak Sompo Japan Dubai Güneş (11) (6) Halk Eureko T Nippon (4) Zurich Ray Koru (3) (2) BNP Paribas Işık Generali (2) Magdeburger Euro (2) Aegon ING E. BNP Paribas E Ergo L/P Cigna Asya L/P L/P market net income Loss-maker Σ -44 Profit-maker Σ 200 Garanti E Ziraat L/P Anadolu L/P Yapi Kredi AvivaSA Halk Hayat Vakif E Metlife L/P Acibadem Finans Groupama Allianz Axa Hayat BNP Paribas Hayat Mapfre G.Y. Demir Hayar Allianz Turkey s competitive advantages in P/C Best-in-class U/W capabilities with high level of Straight-Through-Processing State-of-the-art claims handling capabilities High customer satisfaction: rank 1 in Net Promoter Score for 4 consecutive years Source: Türkiye Sigorta Birliği insurance association of Turkey 22

23 Strategic priorities for enhancing sustainable success Strategic relevance: Highly relevant Relevant ( ) Currently limited Value impact France Italy Benelux Turkey Greece L/H margins and profitable growth Digital company Growth Productivity Multi access (new agency model) ( ) ( ) Commercial/ midcorp ( ) Net Promoter Score Reach loyalty leader or above market in all segments Allianz Engagement Survey Further improve in all OEs, across locations and functions 23

24 Moving forward 3 Moving forward Group results review 2 Strategic priorities in Europe 3 Summary 24

25 Summary moving forward Proven and well diversified business model Taking advantage of competitive strength Strong balance sheet Attractive dividend yield Continuing optimization EUR bn operating profit 2013e Resilient performance in Europe despite headwinds 25

26 Disclaimer These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below. Forward-looking statements The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forwardlooking statements. Such deviations may arise due to, without limitation, (i) changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation, particularly in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets (particularly market volatility, liquidity and credit events) (iii) frequency and severity of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) particularly in the banking business, the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (x) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, and reorganization measures, and (xi) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. No duty to update The company assumes no obligation to update any information or forwardlooking statement contained herein, save for any information required to be disclosed by law. 26