Nordea Small & Mid cap seminar Rikard Josefson, CEO

Transcription

1 Nordea Small & Mid cap seminar 2018 Rikard Josefson, CEO

2 Sweden s leading online savings platform Founded in 1999 No 1 in stock market transactions in Sweden Most satisfied savings customers in Sweden for 8 consecutive years 785,200 customers SEK 318 bn in savings capital 407 employees 3.7% market share of the Swedish savings market 2

3 Significant growth potential with a 3.7% market share of the Swedish savings market Mutual funds 15% Shares, bonds and other securities 12% 4.2% 11.9% 6.2% Individual pensions & insurances 14% The Swedish savings market SEK 7,850 bn Annual market growth of on average 8% last ten years An estimated 80% of the Swedish population saves in funds and 13% own shares Deposits/savings accounts 23% 2.0% 0.7% Occupational pensions & insurances 36%* 3 * An estimated 50% of the market is addressable for Avanza

4 Growth strategy built on scale 1. Savings capital 2. Revenues/savings capital 3. Costs/savings capital 4

5 New customers Net inflow, SEK m Strong customer growth, which drives net inflow M Customer inflow Net inflow 5

6 A history of growth built on innovation 6

7 Age distribution among new customers 7 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4, Share, % Age

8 Savings capital, SEK Customer s savings capital grow by number of years at Avanza month 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 8 Average savings capital per customer (excluding customers with > SEK 10m in savings capital)

9 Growth potential in broader customer groups Knowledge & time Invest Trade Save Gamble 9 Begin Do it for me Help me do it Interest Do it myself

10 Share of total income Strategy for more recurring income 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% m Net brokerage income Net interest income Fund commissions Other commission income 10

11 Savings capital, SEK Important is growth in occupational pension M

12 As always key success factors for Avanza Customer satisfaction keep the No 1 position Continuous growth in both number of customers and volume Create possibilities for continued strong innovation 12 Employee engagement key

13 Appendix Operations Financials Balance sheet data Contact details 32 13

14 Customer satisfaction and employee engagement create shareholder value over time Long-term targets Customer satisfaction & Employee engagement Growth in customers and savings capital Scalability and cost efficiencies Customer proposition Cheaper, better and simpler offering through scale, cost control and top modern IT platform High user experience Information, education and decision-making tools Growth potential Occupational pension business Focus on broader customer groups Strong potential in existing customer base Revenues and costs More stable revenues through funds and mortgages High NII sensitivity Scalability and cost control vital 14

15 Performance on targets 2017 Long-term targets Outcome 2017 Comments Sweden s most satisfied savers according to Swedish Quality Index Achieved in 2017 for the eighth consecutive year Engaged employees, enps over Continued strong ambassadorship, although lower than last year due to Avanza s strong growth, ongoing organisational changes and leadership Market share of at least 9 per cent R 12M of the total net inflow to the Swedish savings market 11.8% Adjusted upward to 10% as of million customers ,600 Well on track to achieve the target already in the beginning of 2020 Cost growth should not outpace income growth Dividend of at least 70 per cent of net profit for the year Not achieved due to higher investments in future growth. Annual cost growth is expected to return to 8-10 per cent from %* * Proposes dividend of SEK per share 15

16 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Number of customers Customer inflow of 74,600 in 2018 (-1% Y/Y) Customer inflow

17 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17* Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Net inflow, SEK m Net inflow of SEK 15,500m in 2018 (-22% Y/Y) Net inflow 17 * Net outflow in November 2017 is explained by a few withdrawals amounting to SEK 2,200m, connected to customers M&A activities.

18 Customers, % Savings capital, SEK m Strong long-term potential in existing customer base Market penetration 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 1,4 1,2 Total share of Swedish savings market: 3.7% as of Q1 Total share of Swedish population: 6.6% as of 1 November 2017 ages 20-29: 10.8% 3,0% 1 ages 30-39: 12.6% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,8 0,6 0,4 ages 40-49: 9.5% Highest penetration in urban areas. Stockholm region, snapshot (Women/Men) as of 1 November 2017: ages 20-29: 10%/19% ages 30-39: 13%/23% ages 40-49: 10%/18% 0,5% 0,2 ages 50-59: 9%/13% ages 60-69: 7%/10% 0,0% Age Savings capital by age Total customer base Age distribution among new customers 18

19 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Market share, % Market share, % Largest Swedish player in stock market transactions on Nasdaq OMX and First North 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 Transactions 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 Turnover 8,0 5,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Market share of 10.9% in terms of transactions and 4.8% in turnover in Q

20 Financial overview Q2 18 Q1 18 % Q2 17 % Operating income, SEK m Operating expenses, SEK m Operating profit, SEK m Operating margin, % EPS, SEK

21 Revenue, SEK m Relationship between long-term savings capital growth and revenue growth 300 Savings capital Q2 2018: SEK 307 bn (+14 % Y/Y) 250 Q Corel= Q2 Corel= Savings capital, SEK m

22 Revenue, SEK m Average repo rate, % Long-term revenue development , , , , , , ,0 22 Total income Net brokerage income Income from mutal funds Net interest income Other income Average repo rate

23 Q1-03 Q3-03 Q1-04 Q3-04 Q1-05 Q3-05 Q1-06 Q3-06 Q1-07 Q3-07 Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Net inflow, SEK m Repo rate, % Historical correlation between low market rates and growth ,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 Falling repo rate since Q historical negative rate since Q Low repo rate creates a good growth environment but puts pressure on NII (1% repo rate increase affects NII with over SEK 250 m) , ,0 0-1,0 Net inflow Repo rate 23

24 Revenue, SEK m Revenue development Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Total income Net brokerage income Income from mutual funds 24 Net interest income Other commission income

25 Income split 6M 2018 Shares, bonds, options (transactions) SEK m % of income % of specific savings capital % of total savings capital Mutual funds Net interest income * 0.04 Other** Total * Based on lending ** Corporate finance fees, foreign exchange, AZA Markets, subscription and advertising income, additional services 25

26 Operating expenses, SEK m Cost development Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q Total expenses Personnel Marketing Depreciation Other expenses

27 Costs 6M 2018 SEK m % of total costs % of total income Personnel IT External services Marketing & Sales Depreciation Other Total costs before credit losses Credit losses, net Total costs after credit losses

28 Operating profit, SEK m Operating margin, % Operating margin of 41% in Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q Operating profit Operating margin

29 EPS after dilution, SEK Earnings per share rolling 12M CAGR 25% per year 16,00 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 29

30 Balance sheet, 30 June 2018 Assets SEK m Liabilities & equity SEK m Loans to credit institutions 1,852 Deposits 29,793 Loans to the public 10,660 Liabilities in insurance operations 93,071 Bonds 15,362 Other liabilities 1,606 Assets in insurance operations 93,071 Subordinated liabilities 100 Other assets 4,938 Equity 1,314 Total assets 125,883 Total liabilities and equity 125,883 Comments Mainly self-financed through shareholders equity and customer deposits Over liquidity of SEK 18,420 m invested in covered bonds and O/N or with short duration with most stable Nordic banks (including SEK 1,206 m deposits in client fund accounts) 30

31 Capital surplus for the Group SEK m 30 June 2018 Shareholders equity 1,314 Solvency capital 1,163 Less non-distributable solvency capital -373 Subordinated bond 81 Intangible fixed assets and deferred tax receivables -89 Capital base before dividend adjustment 2,097 Capital requirement Pillar 1-1,266 Buffer requirement -273 Capital requirement Pillar 2-70 Capital requirement -1,609 Capital surplus before dividend Capital surplus per share, SEK Total capital ratio (consolidated situation), % 16.9

32 Historical financial key data Q is available in Excel at: avanza.se/keydata