GCC markets close broadly higher in March Trading improves with higher market participation Market capitalization rises 2.4%MoM

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1 Global Research GCC Market Performance Markets - GCC April 2016 Performance March 2016 GCC markets close broadly higher in March Trading improves with higher market participation Market capitalization rises 2.4% GCC markets close broadly higher in March GCC markets closed broadly higher in March despite a series of rating downgrades and reviews from leading credit rating agencies. Market sentiment was poor during the month; markets remained unstable due to volatile oil prices. Participants awaited 1Q16 results in April. QE was the key gainer during the month (4.9%), followed by DFM (3.6%), TASI (2.1%), MSM30 (1.3%), ADX (0.9%), KSE (0.4%); BSE (-4%) recorded a negative performance. Combined market capitalization rises 2.4% The market capitalization of the GCC bourses increased 2.4% to USD820bn in March from USD801bn in February. The Saudi bourse contributed the most in the overall market capitalization of the region (USD381bn or 46.5%), followed by the Qatari index (USD128bn or 15.6%), and Abu Dhabi and Dubai markets (USD197bn or 24%). The Kuwaiti, Omani, and Bahraini exchanges contributed USD115bn, or 14%, to the market capitalization. Trading improves Trading improved in March, with the volume traded jumping 25% to 27bn shares and value traded expanding 13.6% to USD43bn. Market Performance in March Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 Saudi Qatar Kuwait (Price) KWSE (Weighted) Abu Dhabi Dubai Oman Bahrain MSCI EM Index MSCI World Index Indices () (YTD) KSE Price Index 0.4% -6.9% Tadawul All Share Index 2.1% -10.0% DFM Index 3.6% 6.5% ADX Index 0.9% 1.9% Bahrain All Share -4.0% -7.0% QE Index 4.9% -0.5% MSM30 Index 1.3% 1.1%

2 GCC Aggregate Market Capitalization Country Market Cap Mar 2016 Market Cap Feb 2016 () % of total Mar 2016 Kuwait % 9.9% Saudi Arabia % 46.5% Abu Dhabi % 14.2% Dubai % 9.7% Qatar % 15.6% Oman % 1.9% Bahrain % 2.1% Total GCC % 100.0% GCC Aggregate Trading Activity Country March 2016 February 2016 traded Volumes (mn) As a % of total value traded traded Volumes (mn) As a % of total value traded Bahrain % % Kuwait , % , % Oman % % Qatar % % Saudi Arabia , % , % UAE , % , % GCC Total , % , % Gloomy outlook for GCC market over short run GCC markets recorded a weak performance in 2015 due to a significant dip in oil prices. In January, the market trend continued due to concern over oil oversupply following the lifting of sanctions on Iran. In February, OPEC giants Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to maintain oil production at the January levels, which partially boosted market sentiment. Markets recovered in March; however, a series of rating downgrades and reviews from major credit rating agencies invoked negativity and raised questions regarding the region s economic stability in the near term. In February and March, both Moody s and S&P cut the ratings of some GCC nations and kept the others in review for a downgrade. Furthermore, the agencies cut the ratings of a few banks. Notably, most of the GCC countries are estimating a budget deficit in 2016 and have undertaken various measures to curb the expected deficit due to a potential drop in oil revenues. However, these measures would not be able to support the budget deficits entirely. Hence, the agencies are concerned about the region s economic outlook. The long-term focus of GCC countries has been to reduce their oil dependency by developing small- and mid-sized enterprises, which would boost the region s non-oil revenue. Hence, we believe GCC markets would prove attractive investment avenues in the long run as trading multiples have been lowered significantly. In terms of valuation, the GCC markets one-year forward PE ratio stands at 7 12x, lower than that for emerging markets. Thus, GCC markets are still more attractive than peers. Qatar and the UAE are part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Saudi Arabia is likely to be added to the index in The FTSE upgraded Qatar to Secondary Emerging Market from Frontier Market in September 2015, which would prove a positive factor for the country in the long run. 2

3 1 Yr Forward PE Global Research GCC GCC Market Valuation 1 year forward PE USA Oman Kuwait 8.0 Japan China KSA Qatar Abu Dhabi Hong Kong UK India Dubai Brazil 6.0 Bahrain Egypt 4.0 Russia % -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1 yr forward EPS growth Global markets close higher Global markets closed higher in March after two months of volatile trading sessions. US, European, and Asian markets ended in the green during the month. US markets ended higher in March. They began on a positive note following the release of upbeat ISM manufacturing activity. Recovery in oil prices supported energy stocks. Furthermore, the Fed s decision to hold interest rates and announce a rate increase just twice in 2016 boosted sentiment. Though the Brussels attack stirred markets partially, this failed to dampen sentiment. European markets closed in the green in March. The markets commenced trading on a gloomy note, dragged by weak factory order data from Germany and damp investor confidence in the Eurozone. Investors remained cautious over volatile oil prices. Markets enjoyed a long holiday session and ended higher, taking cues from the US markets, led by positivity surrounding the Fed s interest rate decision. Asian markets ended positive in March. Terrorist attacks failed to spar negative sentiment in the markets. Positive global cues kept investor attitudes buoyant. Volatility over oil prices invoked concern, while investors cheered the US Fed s decision to hold interest rates. 3

4 1-Mar 7-Mar 13-Mar 17-Mar 23-Mar 29-Mar in mn Global Research GCC Bahrain BSE falls 0.4% in March BSE fell 0.4% in March due to ongoing volatility in oil prices and a rating downgrade by Moody s. The market declined at the beginning of the month, as Moody's Investors Service cut its outlook for the debt ratings of Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf states, while lowering Bahrain's rating to junk, citing concerns over the impact of low oil prices on the country s finances. In March, even Standard & Poor s Ratings Services downgraded Bahrain s ratings to double-b, two notches into the speculative grade. During the end of the month, market recorded a sharp fall due to a decline in oil prices. In March, Bahrain's stock exchange established a market for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Under the plan, REITs licensed by the central bank can be listed and traded by investors in the secondary market. Furthermore, Bahrain Bourse (BHB) adopted a resolution specifying the data distribution fees for licensed data vendors with effect from April 3, BSE Index and Volume Performance and Sectoral Performance 1, BSE -4.0% 1, Hotel & Tourism 0.0% 1, Insurance -0.5% 1, Commercial Banks Services -3.6% -3.8% 1, Investment -4.3% Industrial -8.8% Volume (RHS) Index (LHS) -10% -5% 0% Sectoral performance In March, all sectors ended in the red, except Hotel & Tourism, which ended flat. Industrial (-8.8%) lost the most, followed by Investment (-4.3%), Services (-3.8%), Commercial Banks (-3.6%) and Insurance (- 0.5%). Industrial declined due to Aluminium Bahrain Co. s weak performance (-9.2%). Heavyweight Commercial Banks was dragged down by Ahli United Bank (-7.2%), Al Salam Bank (-5.1%), and BBK (-1.7%). Investment declined due to losses in Albaraka Banking Group (-8%), Arab Banking Corporation (-17.7%), Bahrain Commercial Facilities Co. (-2%) and Khaleeji Commercial Bank (-8.8%). Trading was mixed in March Trading on BSE was mixed in March. Total volume traded reduced 14.4% to 33mn shares from 38mn last month, whereas trading value gained 4% to USD0.02bn. 4

5 BSE Trading Statistics Top 5 Top Gainers Ithmaar Bank Bsc* % NA Gulf Finance House Ec* % NA Bahrain Duty Free Complex % Top 5 Losers Arab Banking Corp* % Nass Corp Bsc % Trafco Group Bsc % Aluminium Bahrain Bsc % Khaleeji Commercial Bank % Top 5 Volume Volume (mn) Ahli United Bank B.S.C* % Ithmaar Bank Bsc* % NA Khaleeji Commercial Bank % Gulf Finance House Ec* % NA Albaraka Banking Group* % Top 5 Ahli United Bank B.S.C* % Investcorp Bank * % Ithmaar Bank Bsc* % NA Albaraka Banking Group* % Gulf Finance House Ec* % NA Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase & Global Research, *Price data in USD 5

6 Market capitalization The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies decreased 4.9% to USD17.5bn in March from USD18.4bn in February. The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies fell 6.2%. Largest 10 Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (in BHDbn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% Ahli United Bank B.S.C % -18.2% National Bank Of Bahrain % -23.1% Bahrain Telecom Co % -10.3% Arab Banking Corp % -48.0% Aluminium Bahrain Bsc % -39.6% BBK Bsc % -16.7% Albaraka Banking Group % -34.8% Investcorp Bank -$US % 9.8% Gulf Finance House Ec NA 26.5% NA Ithmaar Bank Bsc % -7.1% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % -21.7% Source: Bloomberg and Global Research 6

7 1-Mar 9-Mar 17-Mar 27-Mar in mn Global Research GCC Kuwait KSE rose 0.4% in March The KSE was significantly volatile during March amid concerns over oil prices and the outlook of the GCC countries. Notably, during the month, Moody's placed Kuwait's Aa2 rating on review for downgrade, propelling negativity. Furthermore, Moody s took rating action on 26 GCC banks during the month, which included two Kuwaiti banks. The ratings of these two entities were kept on review for downgrade. On a YTD basis, the market lost 6.9%. Kuwait inked a USD2.93bn contract with three South Korean firms to construct the largest LNG import facility in the oil-rich country. The project, to be built at the Al-Zour refinery near the Saudi Arabian border, was awarded to Hyundai Engineering Co., Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co., and Korea Gas Corporation. KSE Index and Volume Performance and Sectoral Performance 5,360 5,320 5,280 5,240 5, KSE 0.4% Basic Material 7.1% Oil & Gas 4.2% Financial Services 2.6% Technology 2.2% Industrial 1.2% Insurance 0.9% Consumer Goods 0.4% Real Estate 0.1% Banks -0.1% Telecommunication -0.8% Consumer Services -4.7% Volume (RHS) Index (LHS) Health Care -9.6% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Sectoral performance In March, eight sectoral indices closed in the green and the rest closed in the red. Basic Material (7.1%) was the top gainer, followed by Oil & Gas (4.2%), Financial Services (2.6%), Technology (2.2%), Industrial (1.2%), Insurance (0.9%), Consumer Goods (0.4%), and Real Estate (0.1%). Healthcare (- 9.6%) was the key loser, followed by Consumer Services (-4.7%), Telecommunication (-0.8%), and Banks (-0.1%). Oil & Gas rose 4.2% due to gains in The Energy House Co. (50%) and National Petroleum Services Co. (15.9%), owing to partial recovery in oil prices. However, Ikarus Petroleum Industries Co. (-4.9%) and Independent Petroleum Group (-3.1%) recorded losses, partially affecting the sector s growth. Gains in the Financial Services sector was led by National Investments Co. (18.2%), followed by International Financial Advisers Co. (10.9%), First Investment Co. (11.8%), and The Securities House Co. (8.1%). Trading improved in March Trading increased in March, with share value gaining 45.5% to USD1.1bn from USD0.8bn, and volume traded gaining 43.6% to 4.0bn shares from 2.8bn shares. 7

8 KSE Index Trading Statistics Top 5 Top 5 Gainers Energy House Holding Co Kscc % NA Al-Safat Energy Holding KSCC % NA National Ranges Co KSCC % NA Kuwait Finance and Investment KSCC % Metal and Recycling Co KSCC % NA Top 5 Losers Zima Holding Co KSC % NA YIACO Medical Co KSCC % NA Real Estate Trade Centers Co % Al Madar Finance and Inv % NA Al Dar National Real Estate Co % Top 5 Volume Volume (mn) Al Dar National Real Estate Co % Investors Holding Group Co % Al-Safat Energy Holding KSCC % NA National Ranges Co KSCC % NA Zima Holding Co KSC % NA Top 5 Kuwait Finance House KSC % National Bank of Kuwait SAK % Mobile Telecommunications Co % Agility Public Warehousing % Kuwait Projects %

9 Market capitalization The market capitalization of KSE-listed companies was flat at USD81.6bn in March. The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies rose 0.9%. Top 10 Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (in KWDbn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% National Bank of Kuwait SAK % -12.1% Kuwait Finance House KSC % -21.2% Mobile Telecommunications Co % -25.3% Al Ahli United Bank % -9.5% Kuwait Food Co SAK % -8.9% Boubyan Bank KSC % 2.4% Kuwait Projects Holding KSCC % -14.1% Mabanee Co SAKC % 1.1% Burgan Bank SAK % -21.5% Ahli United Bank KSC % -20.7% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % -14.8% 9

10 1-Mar 7-Mar 13-Mar 17-Mar 23-Mar 29-Mar in mn Global Research GCC Oman MSM30 gains 1.3% in March The MSM30 index rose 1.3%, after gaining 4.2% in February. A rating downgrade last month to junk status by Standard & Poor s Ratings Services invoked negative sentiments over the country s economic outlook. Additionally, Moody's downgraded Oman's long-term issuer rating to A3 in February and kept it at review for further downgrade. The market was trading largely lower during the month; however, it started recovering towards the end of the month as the country is less dependent on the movement of oil prices and attracted more investors as oil prices declined. On a YTD basis, the market gained 1.1%. In March, the Muscat bourse decided to reduce the number of free floating days for newly listed shares to one day from the earlier three days. Normal share trading, subject to a circuit breaker of 10% fluctuation, would be applicable for newly listed shares from the second day. MSM30 Index & Volume and Sectoral Performance 5, MSM % 5, , Banking & Investment 3.7% 5, Services & Insurance 1.5% 5, Industrial 0.7% Volume (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase, & Global Research Index (LHS) 0% 2% 4% Sectoral performance In March, all sectors ended in the green. Banking & Investment (3.7%) was the key gainer, followed by Services & Insurance (1.5%) and Industrial (0.7%). Growth in Banking & Investment was supported by gains in Bank Nizwa (8.7%), followed by National Bank of Oman (6.3%), Global Financial Inv. Co. (49.6%), Alizz Islamic Bank (5.3%), and OMINVEST (12.5%). This was partially offset by losses in Bank Muscat (-9.9%). Services and Insurance rose during the month due to gains in Oman Qatari Telecommunications Co. (4.1%), followed by Galfar Engineering & Contracting Co. (41.7%) and Sembcorp Salalah (10.2%). This was partly offset by losses in Oman Telecommunications Co. (-6.3%). Industrial gained due to a rise in Al Anwar Holding Co. (10.1%), followed by Gulf International Chemicals Co. (2%), Oman Cement Co. (0.5%), and National Gas Co. (3.3%). Mixed trading in March Trading on the MSM30 was mixed in March, with the volume traded gaining 7.9% to 357mn shares. Total turnover was down 0.6% to USD0.2bn. 10

11 MSM30 Trading Statistics Top 5 Top 5 Gainers Global Financial Investments Hold Galfar Engineering and Contracting % % NA Al Hassan Engineering Co % NA Oman International Development and Investment % Oman Flour Mills Co SAOG % Top 5 Losers Oman Textile Holding Co % Al Jazeira Services Co SAOG % Al Maha Ceramics Co. SAOC % Bank Muscat SAOG % Oman Telecommunications Co % NA Top 5 Volume Galfar Engineering and Contracting Volume (mn) % NA Bank Nizwa % NA Bank Muscat SAOG % Bank Sohar SAOG % Al Anwar Holdings SAOG % Top 5 Bank Muscat SAOG % Oman Telecommunications Co % NA Al Anwar Holdings SAOG % Bank Nizwa % NA Oman Investment and Finance % Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase, & Global Research 11

12 Market Capitalization The market capitalization of MSM30-listed companies was flat at USD15.7bn in March. The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies declined 1%. 10 Largest Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (in OMRbn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% Oman Telecommunications Co % -9.2% Bank Muscat SAOG % -23.7% Bank Dhofar SAOG % -6.6% National Bank of Oman SAOG % -1.6% Oman International Development & Investment % 68.6% Sembcorp Salalah Power & Wat % 14.9% Ahli Bank SAOG % -17.1% Bank Sohar SAOG % -1.2% Phoenix Power Co NA 2.1% NA HSBC Bank Oman % -24.6% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % -4.4% 12

13 1-Mar 10-Mar 20-Mar 28-Mar in mn Global Research - GCC Qatar QSE advances 4.9% in March QSE rose 4.9% in March, outpacing other bourses in the Gulf. The bourse s movement was broadly in line with oil prices throughout the month. Investors risk appetites remained strong, supported by a rise in oil prices and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. This was evident from the AA/A-1+ rating with a stable outlook affirmed by Standard and Poor's to Qatar s long- and short-term sovereign bonds. The country has invited both OPEC and non-opec members to a meeting scheduled on April 17 in Doha to discuss stabilization in the oil market. Investors anticipate a positive outcome, especially after a series of meetings in February yielded commitments from oil producers. The country s trade surplus rose 3% over January, but declined 53.5%YoY in February 2016 to QAR8.5bn. Qatar: Index, Volume, and Sectoral Performance 10, QE 4.9% 10, Real Estate 12.6% 10, Telecom Industrial 8.2% 10.5% 10, Consumer Goods 7.7% 9, Transportation Insurance 7.0% 6.2% Banks & FS 4.3% Volume (RHS) Index (LHS) 0% 5% 10% 15% Sectoral performance In March, all sectors ended in the green. Real Estate (12.6%) advanced the most, followed by Telecom (10.5%), Industrial (8.2%), Consumer Goods (7.7%), Transportation (7%), Insurance (6.2%), and Banks & Financial Institutions (4.3%). Gains in Real Estate were ascribed to positive performances from Ezdan Holding Group (18.5%) and Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (19.3%). Banking surged during the month, led by Qatar National Bank (4.1%), Masraf Al Rayan (4.7%), Qatar Islamic Bank (5.8%), Ahli Bank (16.5%), and Al Khalij Commercial Bank (9.1%). Trading improves in March Trading expanded on QSE in March. The value of shares traded rose 20.8% to USD1.7bn, while the volume of shares traded increased 28% to 177.1mn shares. 13

14 QSE Index Trading Statistics Top 5 Top 5 Gainers Qatari Investor Group % Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Co QSC % NA National Leasing Holding Co % NA Gulf Warehousing Co QSC % Vodafone Qatar QSC % NA Top 5 Losers Doha Bank QSC % United Development Co PSC % Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co QSC % Mannai Corporation QSC % Qatar International Islamic Bank QSC % Top 5 Volume Volume (mn) Vodafone Qatar QSC % NA Masraf Al Rayan QSC % Gulf International Services QSC % Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development QSC % National Leasing Holding Co % NA Top 5 Masraf Al Rayan QSC % Gulf International Services QSC % Islamic Holding Group QSC % Qatar National Bank SAQ % Barwa Real Estate Co QSC %

15 Market capitalization The combined market capitalization of QSE-listed companies rose 5.3% to USD127.8bn in March from USD121.4bn in February. The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies edged up 7.1%. Top 10 Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (QAR bn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% Qatar National Bank SAQ % -12.7% Industries Qatar QSC % -22.1% Ezdan Holding Group % 16.7% Qatar Telecom QSC % -6.7% Masraf Al Rayan QSC % -25.1% Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ % 4.2% Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co QSC % -27.7% Qatar Electricity and Water Co QSC % 7.5% Qatar Insurance Co SAQ % 37.8% Qatar Fuel QSC % -7.2% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % -9.6% 15

16 1-Mar 7-Mar 13-Mar 17-Mar 23-Mar 29-Mar in mn Global Research GCC Saudi Arabia TASI rises 2.1% in March The Tadawul All Shares Index (TASI) gained 2.1% in March The market broadly tracked oil price movements during the month. The index commenced the month on a positive note, after oil prices rose following, indications of cooperation by the Saudi Cabinet to limit volatility in oil prices and unexpected monetary policy easing measures by China on February 29. Investors turned optimistic after the Kingdom increased the OSP of Arab Light crude by 25 cents for customers in Asia, changing its earlier stance to keep it lower. The market came under pressure in mid-march, as investors took note of the rough economic conditions. The government ordered its ministries to slash spending by 5%. Furthermore, S&P Moody s lowered its outlook for Saudi banking system to negative from stable, citing lower oil prices and government spending. However, the market regained strength and touched its monthly high on March 21, as Brent oil climbed above USD41 per barrel. Thereon, the market rally lost momentum, as oil prices declined. Investors turned bearish, as they shifted focus toward the upcoming 1Q16 results, anticipating weak growth amid slowdown in economy. Saudi Arabia's M3 money supply contracted in February for the first time in more than a decade, as revealed by data from SAMA. Government deposits fell 6.6% in February to SAR271.8bn. TASI: Index, Volume, and Sectoral Performance 6,600 6,450 6,300 6,150 6, TASI Real Estate Dev. Insurance Telecom & IT Transport Energy & Utilities Petrochemical Multi-Inv. Agri & Food Building & Const. Cement Banks & FS Industrial Inv. Retail Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism -0.8% -4.5% -4.6% -5.4% -6.0% 2.1% 10.6% 9.6% 7.9% 6.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 2.7% 2.2% 0.8% Volume (RHS) Index (LHS) -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: TASI, Gulfbase, & Global Research Sectoral performance In March 2016, 10 sectors ended in the green, whereas five ended in the red. Real Estate Development (10.6%) was the top gainer, followed by Insurance (9.6%), Telecom & IT (7.9%), Transport (6.8%), Energy & Utilities (4.5%), Petrochemical (4.1%), Multi-Investment (3.7%), Agriculture & Food (2.7%), Building & Construction (2.2%), and Cement (0.8%). Hotel & Tourism (-6%) lost the most, followed by Media & Publishing (-5.4%), Retail (-4.6%), Industrial Investment (-4.5%), and Banking and Financial Services (-0.8%). Real Estate Development rose, supported by gains in Jabal Omar Development Co (14.3%), Emaar The Economic City (4.9%), Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Dev Co (13.9%), and Taiba Holding Co (2.4%). Petrochemical advanced, driven by gains in Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (2.9%), Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co. (14.7%), and Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co (13.1%). However, Hotel & Tourism fell due to losses in Al-Tayyar Travel Group (-6.7%) and Abdulmohsen Al Hokair Group for Tourism & Development Co. (-6%). 16

17 Trading improves in March Trading on the TASI advanced in March The volume of shares traded rose 11.1% to 6.6bn in March 2016 from 6.0bn in February The value of shares traded also edged up to USD33.4bn in March 2016 from USD31.0bn in February TASI Index Trading Statistics Top 5 Top 5 Gainers Saudi Indian for Cooperative Insurance Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Co Buruj Cooperative Insurance Co Saudi IAIC Cooperative Insurance Co % NA % % % Etihad Etisalat % NA Top 5 Losers Metlife Aig Anv Cooperative % NA Halwani Brothers Co Ltd % Jarir Marketing Co % Saudi Arabian Mining Co % Al Hammadi Dev. & Invest. Co % Top 5 Volume Volume (mn) Alinma Bank % , Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Dev % Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co % NA Bank Aljazira % Saudi Basic Industries Corp % Top 5 Alinma Bank % , Saudi Basic Industries Corp % , Al Tayyar Travel Group % Al Andalus Property Co % NA Tihama Advertising Public % NA Relation Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase & Global Research 17

18 Market capitalization In March 2016, the market capitalization of companies listed on the TASI advanced 2% to USD381.1bn in March 2016 from USD373.6bn in February The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies rose 1.6%. Top 10 Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (SARbn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% Saudi Basic Industries Corp % -6.4% Saudi Telecom Co % 2.3% Al Rajhi Banking and Invest Corp % -9.7% National Commercial Bank % -33.3% Saudi Electricity Co % -8.6% Jabal Omar Development Co % -26.2% Kingdom Holding Co % -41.1% Samba Financial Group % -19.8% Almarai Co % -20.6% Saudi Arabian Mining Co % -29.4% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % -16.1% 18

19 1-Mar 7-Mar 14-Mar 20-Mar 24-Mar 30-Mar in mn Global Research GCC UAE Abu Dhabi ADX gains 0.9% in March ADX advanced 0.9% in March 2016, adding to a 7.3% increase in February The index rose initially on an upward trend in oil prices. Investor sentiment improved, as focus shifted toward the UAE s enhanced economic diversification and lower stock valuation. Emirates NBD PMI data for February (53.1) exceeded analyst expectations, adding to the momentum. The momentum faded soon, as concerns over the economic growth trajectory grew, limiting recovery in stocks despite an upside in oil prices. Moreover, a 40% reduction in roaming tariffs announced by the GCC trimmed gains in telecom stocks. M2 and M3 money supply did not register any growth on basis in February, leading to a significant downward correction in banking stocks. Index compiler FTSE Russell added Etisalat to its All-World and other indices, effective the close of March 18. ADX: Index, Volume, and Sectoral Performance 4, ADX 0.9% Real Estate 7.8% 4, Services 7.8% Consumer 7.1% 4, Telecom 5.4% Energy 2.9% 4, Insurance 2.4% Industrial 0.2% 4, Banks Investment & FS -7.3% -2.5% Volume (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase, & Global Research Index (LHS) -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Sectoral performance In March, seven sectors ended in the green, while two declined. Real Estate and Services (7.8% each) advanced the most, followed by Consumer (7.1%), Telecommunication (5.4%), Energy (2.9%), Insurance (2.4%), and Industrial (0.2%). However, Investment and Financial Services (-7.3%) was the weakest performer, followed by Banks (-2.5%). Real Estate surged, led by strong performances by Aldar Properties (10%). Gain in Telecommunication can be ascribed to a rise in Emirates Telecommunication Corp Ltd (5.4%) and Qatar Telecom (11.6%). Banks declined on weak performances by First Gulf Bank (-7.8%), Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (-1.5%), United Arab Bank (-18%), and Sharjah Islamic Bank PJSC (-9.4%). Investment & Financial Services fell on a 7.4% decline in Waha Capital. Trading was mixed in March Trading on ADX was mixed in March 2016, as investors remained away from the market most of the time amid concerns over economic growth. The volume of shares traded declined -21.3% to 3.3bn in March 2016 from 4.2bn in February The value of shares traded surged 22.1% to USD1.7bn in March. 19

20 ADX Trading Statistics Top 5 Top 5 Gainers Methaq Takaful Insurance Co PSC % NA Invest Bank PSC % Oman and Emirates Investment Holding Co SAOG % NA Union Insurance Co PSC % NA National Marine Dredging PSC % NA Top 5 Losers Green Crescent Insurance Co % NA NA Fujairah Building Industries Co PSC % United Arab Bank PJSC % NA Sharjah Islamic Bank PJSC % Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics PSC % Top 5 Volume Volume (mn) Eshraq properties Co % NA NA 1, Dana Gas Co PJS % RAK Properties PJSC % Methaq Takaful Insurance Co PSC % NA Aldar Properties PJSC % Top 5 Emirates Telecommunication Corp % Eshraq properties Co % NA NA Aldar Properties PJSC % First Gulf Bank PJSC % Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC % Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase, & Global Research 20

21 Market capitalization In March 2016, the combined market capitalization of the companies listed on ADX rose 2.6% to USD116.8bn. The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies advanced 2.8%. Top 10 Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (AED bn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% Emirates Telecommunication Corp Ltd % 62.2% First Gulf Bank PJSC % -19.5% National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC % -26.6% Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC % 3.6% Aldar Properties PJSC % 16.0% Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC % -17.8% Union National Bank PJSC % -34.7% National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah PSC % -25.5% National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain PSC % 13.8% National Bank of Fujairah PSC % -4.3% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % 7.6% 21

22 1-Mar 7-Mar 13-Mar 17-Mar 23-Mar 29-Mar in mn Global Research GCC UAE Dubai DFM advances 3.6% in March The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) rose 3.6% in March 2016, adding to an 8.1% growth in February Rise in oil prices provided the initial thrust to the equity markets. Furthermore, a better-than-expected Emirates NBD PMI data added to the positive momentum. However, the Emirates NBD Dubai economy tracker came in at 48.9, indicating the first contraction in the UAE s private sector since Investor sentiment weakened temporarily, but recovered following the surge in oil prices to about USD41 per barrel. According to Dubai Statistics Center, inflation in Dubai dropped to an annual rate of 1.9% in January from 3.1% in December 2015 due to falling gasoline prices, as oil prices reached a 12-year low in the international market. DFM: Index, Volume, and Sectoral Performance 3, DFM Insurance 3.6% 10.0% 3, Investment & FS Consumer Staples 8.9% 8.9% 3, Telecom Real Estate & Const. 7.9% 4.4% 3, Services Banks 2.6% 1.7% 3, Transportation Industrial -17.2% -5.8% Volume (RHS) Index (LHS) -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Sectoral performance In March, Insurance (10%) was the top gainer, followed by Investment & Financial Services and Consumer Staples (8.9% each), Telecommunication (7.9%), Real Estate and Construction (4.4%), Services (2.6%), and Banks (1.7%). Industrial (-7.2%) and Transportation (-5.8%) were the only losers. Banks advanced, supported by gains in Commercial Bank of Dubai (33.3%), Emirates NBD Bank (7.5%), and Gulf Finance House (22.4%). Real Estate & Construction advanced due to gains in Arabtec Holding (13.9%), Union Properties (13.3%), and Emaar Properties (2.9%). Decline in Industrial was due to a -17.1% drop in National Cement Co. The decline in Transportation was led by Air Arabia (-8.2%) and Gulf Navigation Holding (-2.2%). Trading surges in March Trading on DFM surged in March The volume of shares traded rose 54.1% to 12.2bn. The value of shares traded increased 61.7% to USD4.6bn. 22

23 DFM Trading Statistics Top 5 Top 5 Gainers Commercial Bank of Dubai PSC % Shuaa Capital PSC % NA Oman Insurance Co PSC % National General Insurance Co % United Foods Co PSC % Top 5 Losers National Cement Co PSC % Al Salam Bank Sudan % Air Arabia PJSC % Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC % Arabian Scandinavian Insurance Co % Top 5 Volume Volume (mn) Arabtec Holding PJSC % NA , Union Properties PJSC % , Drake and Scull International % NA NA 1, Amlak Finance PJSC % Dubai Parks & Resorts PJSC % NA Top 5 Arabtec Holding PJSC % NA , Emaar Properties PJSC % Union Properties PJSC % Amlak Finance PJSC % Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC % Source: Bloomberg, Gulfbase, & Global Research 23

24 Market capitalization The combined market capitalization of the companies listed on DFM rose 4.6% to USD79.8bn in March The market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies gained 4.6%. Top 10 Listed Companies by Market Capitalization (AED bn) Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-15 % YoY% Emirates NBD Bank PJSC % -15.7% Emaar Properties PJSC % -8.8% Emaar Malls % -1.4% Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co PJSC % 30.6% Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC % -4.4% Commercial Bank of Dubai PSC % 1.6% DAMAC Properties Dubai Co PJSC % 46.5% Mashreqbank PSC % -29.1% Dubai Financial Market PJSC % -9.9% Dubai Investment PJSC % -4.6% Total Market Capitalization (Top 10 stocks) % -3.5% 24

25 Appendix 1: MENA and Global market performance in March 2016 Indices Up/Down () (YTD) (x) (x) Div Yield (%) KSE Weighted Index % -5.7% KSE Price Index 5, % -6.9% Tadawul All Share Index 6, % -10.0% DFM Index 3, % 6.5% ADX Index 4, % 1.9% Bahrain All Share 1, % -7.0% QE Index 10, % -0.5% MSM30 Index 5, % 1.1% Levant & North Africa Markets Up/Down () (YTD) (x) (x) Div Yield (%) Egypt - EGX30 7, % 7.4% Egypt-- EGX % -3.0% Jordan-- Amman Fr Flt Index 2, % 0.7% Palestine - AlQuds Index % -5.0% Lebanon - BLOM Stk Index* 1, % 1.3% Morocco - CASA All Share index* 9, % 4.5% Tunisia - Tunisia Main Index* 5, % 7.5% International Indices Up/Down () (YTD) (x) (x) Div Yield (%) DJ Average 17, % 1.5% NASDAQ Composite 4, % -2.7% S&P500 Comp. 2, % 0.8% FTSE UK 6, % -1.1% Extra DAX 9, % -7.2% CAC 40 - France 4, % -5.4% International Indices Up/Down () (YTD) (x) (x) Div Yield (%) Bovespa Index 50, % 15.5% NA RTS Index % 15.7% Bombay SE SENSEX -India 25, % -3.0% SSE Composite Index - Shanghai 3, % -15.1% NIKKEI 225 INDEX- Japan 16, % -12.0% Hang Seng - Hong Kong 20, % -5.2% Source: Bloomberg and Global Research 25

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