THE FULL REPORT IS IN THE MEMBERS CENTER. THIS IS AN EXCERPT FROM THERE.
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1 OGIB IB #221 - May 30, 2013 Click here for: PORTFOLIO PURCHASE ENTERPRISE GROUP (E-TSX; ETOLF-PINK) Want to know how to change your password? Click here for our answers to Frequently Asked Questions Enterprise Group is an Oilfield Services company (OFS) with higher margins, more proprietary technology than its peers--and has several customers outside the oil patch, for good diversification. At the time of my purchase, (yesterday) it was trading at roughly half its leading Enterprise Value to Cash Flow ratio as its peers (EV/EBITDA). I ve bought 100,000 shares at 57 cents. Now, there are definitely some risks with the company, but the tidal wave of spending to make ready for LNG exports in northwest BC should drive all these OFS stocks higher. Billions of dollars in new pipeline construction, maintenance, facilities construction etc. will generate big cash flows for OFS companies in the area. Which ones will only grow 30% while others grow 300%? I don t know. But I like the idea of investing in a rising tide, and owning a boat with proprietary technology, higher margins and lower valuations than its peers. THE FULL REPORT IS IN THE MEMBERS CENTER. THIS IS AN EXCERPT FROM THERE. POSITIVES -proprietary product Arctic Therm -higher margins than almost all other OFS -major customer is utility company, not oil and gas more steady income -mgmt/directors own ~ 32% of the stock -underfollowed by investment community -growing LNG business should be huge wind at their back for next 3-5 yrs
2 NEGATIVES -small company only $40 million revenue their big challenge -not diversified--all operations concentrated in Western Canada -most of their business lines do not have huge barriers to entry -too many pros have too much cheap stock Enterprise Group has several businesses, and you can read about all of them in the full report in the Members Centre. This recently purchased business is what I think will be the growth engine for the company in the coming year. Artic Therm (Flameless Heat Technology) This is very neat. Oil and gas and NGLs (Natural Gas Liquids) can come out of the ground VERY HOT and to straight into pipelines. When pipelines are just newly built, and hot oil or gas goes through them they e x p a n d. A L O T. Management says pipelines can expand to over 1 metre per kilometer. That means there WILL be breaks/breaches on all new pipelines especially those in the northern climates. Arctic Therm has a proprietary technology that heats the pipe up really hot out in the field as they re laying it in the ground so it gets all its initial thermal expansion out of the way. The pipe is buried hot, insulating it, and removing almost all worries of pipeline breaches, due to thermal expansion, during the startup phase. This is a VERY big deal, as pipeline integrity, after fracking, is the #1 issue in the new social contract that industry has to forge with the general population. (And sadly, they re screwing
3 it up but that rant is for the blog another day.) Technologies like this that work, are proven should get profiled and talked about by the industry to explain how a little bit of innovation can come from working at problems. This technology is unique. Nobody else has it. The patents have 7 years left. It s a great insurance package for pipeline companies and producers lower repair bills but more importantly, lower environmental fines, which are now BIG BUCKS, even for big corporations (ask BP). Enterprise just bought this company in September 2012 and they are still learning about it. But growth has come very quickly. At the purchase date, Arctic Therm was doing $4.7 M top line and just under $3 M EBITDA (great margin!). Enterprise did nearly that just in Q with Arctic Therm. Big units will go from 4 10 next heating season, and small units from They re already fully booked out for next season. For the last several years, the private owners only had 4 clients. In just one heating season, in a very conservative industry (just look at Wavefront and GasFrac as to how slow new technologies get adopted), they have new clients that include Husky, Suncor, Imperial Oil, Enbridge and MEG Energy. You see what kind of growth could happen here? My big question was what about maintenance? Only so many pipelines are going to be built. The big, long term cash flow which is what the market pays for--is in maintenance. These small units heat up confined spaces very quickly, so they are great for wellhead sites and outdoor spaces that are only used sporadically. So that is ongoing revenue. Another big market is the 30,000-50,000 barrel storage tanks used by producers. There are evidently 11,000 in Alberta alone, and every three years must be emptied, dried, cleaned and inspected. Arctic Therm says they dry them out in 40% less time and provide a workable space no carbon monoxide or floating hydrocarbons in the air, so welding and cleaning can happen immediately.
4 These heaters are used for a variety of applications: Construction sites Vessel / Tank coat curing Equipment & Ground thawing Emergency & facility heating Wellhead & B.O.P. heating Health & Pest Control Plant turnarounds/start ups De-humidifying / drying Flood clean up Concrete curing This business should be in the sweet spot for years to come. The industry is just getting started in the massive Duvernay play in Northern Alberta and the Montney/Horn River shale gas plays will develop at a frantic pace as we get closer to the LNG terminals being built. There is going to be a huge amount of construction, drilling and pipelines being laid in very cold conditions. Artic Therm should account for about a quarter of Enterprise s revenue in 2013 and could grow by 50% over the next 12 months. VALUATION / FINANCIALS First quarter cash flow for Enterprise was $3.9 million. Management tells me they expect to achieve 2013 EBITDA of $18.2 million. Gross margins are 41%--most OFS companies are
5 25-35%, with most in the lower part of that range. Their debt line was just expanded to $20 million, and I estimate net debt at $8 million now, post acquisition and post-warrant exercise (8.8 million and they all get exercised this year and they re all in the money). At 6 times cash flow (a sensible multiple) that gives me a business value of $109.2 million (5x cash flow=$91 million). The Enterprise Value after the pending acquisition and assuming all warrants are exercised, is $62.3 million. A $109.2 million Enterprise Value would equal roughly $1.06 share price. That is a lot higher than the current share price of $0.56. Five times cash flow equates to about $0.87. At #2 Canadian brokerage firm BMO Nesbitt Burns on May , the average Canadian OFS stock traded at an average of 9.1x their estimated 2013 EV/EBITDA. At Canaccord Genuity the average is 5.6x. Somewhere in the middle is truth. Despite higher margins, the company s small size would mean a slightly lower than average multiple in the near term. CONCLUSION Enterprise Group Inc.is rapidly growing revenue after a three-year retrenchment following the financial crash of The Macro Theme is pipeline construction for the LNG industry from the big pipes to the thousands of miles of little gathering system pipes that will have to get installed over the coming years. And the Micro Theme is a company with proprietary technology, above average margins, and industry diversification. The big risks are the small size of the company, and in the short term, the share structure. A lot of pros own a lot of cheap stock with warrants that expire soon so the chart could be choppier than I expect. The stock needs to find its way into the hands of a broader retail and institutional base. That could take time. And of course, if there is a slowdown in horizontal drilling Enterprise is going to suffer along with everyone in Alberta. That could happen if oil and gas prices drop. I don texpect any slowdown in horizontal drilling to last long, but it is a fact of life that this is a cyclical business. At my purchase price of 57 cents, it has an attractive valuation for a growing company. I m in for 100,000 shares. The stock closed today at 56 cents. STOP LOSS IF I M WRONG 45 CENTS
6 APPENDIX SHARE STRUCTURE Enterprise Share Structure 65,773,362 Previously Issued 8,587,586 Recently Closed new 48 cent financing 12,000,000 Convertible Debenture 6,100,000 Stock Options (all under 50 cents and due in 1 yr) 8,818,332 Warrants most will get exercised in ,564,280 Fully Diluted Shares 94,464,280 Basic (minus the stock options)
7
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