Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review

Transcription

1 Republic of Kenya THE NATIONAL TREASURY Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review First Half, Financial Year 2017/2018 Period ending 31 st December, 2017 February 2018 Edition

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH INFLATION BALANCE OF PAYMENTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES EXCHANGE RATES MONEY AND CREDIT INTEREST RATES CAPITAL MARKETS FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS REVENUE EXPENDITURE Guaranteed Loans to Parastatals Payments FISCAL OUTTURN FINANCING External Financing Domestic Financing PUBLIC DEBT OVERALL DEBT POSITION DOMESTIC DEBT EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT External Debt Service 22 FISCAL RESULTS, 2010/ /2018 (KSH MILLIONS) STATEMENT OF SOURCES AND USES OF CASH STATEMENT OF GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS REVENUE EXPENSE TRANSACTIONS IN ASSETS AND LIABILITIES... 29

3 DISCLAIMER This review is compiled by The National Treasury. Information contained here may be reproduced without restriction provided due acknowledgement is made of the source. Comments, suggestions as well as requests for clarification on information contained in this report are welcome and should be addressed to the Principal Secretary, The National Treasury, P.O. Box , GPO, Nairobi. or to: ii

4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS A-I-A CBK FY GDP ICT IMF KNBS Ksh Mn NDA NFA NG-CDF NSE QEBR RDL US$ Appropriation in Aid Central Bank of Kenya Fiscal Year Gross Domestic Product Information, Communication and Technology International Monetary Fund Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Kenya Shillings Million Net Domestic Assets Net Foreign Assets National Government Constituencies Development Fund Nairobi Securities Exchange Quarterly Economic and Budgetary review Railway Development Levy United States Dollar iii

5 LEGAL BASIS/FOUNDATION/PROVISION FOR THE QEBR The Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review Report is Published in accordance with Section 83 of the Public Finance Management Act, It states as follows: 83. (1) An accounting officer for a national government entity shall prepare a report for each quarter of the financial year in respect of the entity. (2) In preparing a quarterly report for a national government entity, the accounting officer shall ensure that the report (a) Contains information on the financial and non-financial performance of the entity; and (b) Is in a form that complies with the standards prescribed and published by the Accounting Standards Board from time to time. (3) Not later than fifteen days after the end of each quarter, the accounting officer shall submit the quarterly report to the Cabinet Secretary responsible for the entity and the National Treasury. (4) The Cabinet Secretary responsible for an entity shall forward a copy of the report to the Cabinet Secretary and Controller of Budget. (5) Not later than forty five days after the end of each quarter, the National Treasury shall (a) consolidate the quarterly reports and submit them to the National Assembly and a copy of the reports to the Controller of Budget, Auditor-General and the Commission on Revenue Allocation; and (b) Publish and publicize the reports. (6) In the case of an entity that is a state corporation, the accounting officer for the corporation shall submit the quarterly report to the Cabinet Secretary responsible for the corporation who shall, upon approving it, forward a copy to the Cabinet Secretary. iv

6 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC AND BUDGETARY REVIEW: FIRST HALF, 2017/ Economic growth Kenya s economy remained resilient in 2017 supported by a largely stable macroeconomic environment and ongoing public infrastructure investments. The economy grew by 4.4 per cent in quarter 3, 5.0 per cent in Quarter 2, and 4.7 per cent in Quarter 1. However, uncertainty associated with political elections environment coupled with effects of adverse weather conditions slowed down performance of most sectors of the economy. 2. Inflation Overall month on month inflation declined below the government s 5.0 per cent medium term target for the first time since June Inflation declined to 4.5 per cent in December 2017 and 4.7 per cent in November 2017 from 5.7 per cent in October The decline was largely on account of continued decline in prices of key food items such as potatoes, kales, oranges and mangoes due to favourable weather conditions and Government measures on prices of maize, powdered milk and sugar. 3. Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments position improved to a surplus of US$ million (1.2 per cent of GDP) in the year to November 2017 from a deficit of US$ million (1.3 per cent of GDP) in the year to November The current account balance was at a deficit of US$ 5,110.1 million (7.0 per cent of GDP) in the year to November 2017 from a deficit of US$ 3,452.5 million (5.4 per cent of GDP) in the year to November Foreign Exchange Reserves The banking system s foreign exchange holding was at US$ 9,202 million in November 2017 from US$ 10,327 million in November The official foreign exchange reserves held by the Central Bank remained strong at US$ 6,919.5 million (4.6 months of import cover) in November 2017 compared with US$ 7,872.1 million (5.2 months of import cover) in November Money and Credit Broad money supply, M3, grew by 8.4 per cent in the year to November 2017 compared to a growth of 6.2 per cent in the year to November The growth in M3 was largely on account of an increase of net domestic credit to the Government and other public sectors. 6. Capital Markets Activities at the stock market picked up in December The NSE 20 Share Index improved to 3,712 points in December 2017 from 3,157 points in December 2016 while Market Capitalization improved to Ksh 2,522 billion from Ksh 1,902 billion over the same period. 7. Total Revenue Collection The National Government cumulative revenue collection including A-I-A for the period July 2017 to December 2017 amounted to Ksh billion (equivalent to v

7 8.20 per cent of GDP) against a target of Ksh billion (8.99 per cent of GDP). This represented an underperformance of Ksh 68.3 billion mainly due to shortfalls in VAT, Excise duty, Income Tax, Investment Income and A-I-A collection. 8. Government Expenditure and Net Lending The total cumulative expenditure and net lending inclusive of transfers to County governments for the period ending 30 th December, 2017 amounted to Ksh billion. This was Ksh billion below the target of Ksh 1,029.3 billion and was largely attributed to low absorption levels in pension and wages and salaries for the National Government. Expenditure by County Government was also below target. 9. Guaranteed Loans Between July 2017 and December 2017, the National Government paid a total of Ksh million on account of guaranteed loans against the projected debt service of Ksh million. 10. Overall Fiscal Balance The cumulative overall fiscal balance, on a commitment basis (excluding grants), amounted to a deficit of Ksh billion (equivalent to 2.28 per cent of GDP), as at end-december External Financing Between July 2017 and December 2017, external financing amounted to a net borrowing of Ksh 24.1 billion. 12. Net Domestic Borrowing Net domestic financing amounted to a net borrowing of Ksh billion (equivalent to 2.12 per cent of GDP) in the period ending 31 st December Domestic Debt Total gross domestic debt stock increased by 15.0 per cent from Ksh 1,931.0 billion as at end-december 2016 to Ksh 2,220.3 billion by the end-december External Debt The total external debt stock, including the International Sovereign Bond, stood at Ksh 2,353.8 billion for the period ending December The debt stock comprised of multilateral debt (35.8 per cent), bilateral debt (33.3 per cent), Suppliers Credit debt (0.7 per cent), and Commercial banks debt (30.3 per centincluding International Sovereign Bond). vi

8 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1.0 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1.1 Economic Growth 1. Kenya s economy remained resilient in 2017 supported by a largely stable macroeconomic environment and ongoing public infrastructure investments. The economy grew by 4.4 per cent in quarter 3, 5.0 per cent in Quarter 2, and 4.7 per cent in Quarter 1. However, uuncertainty associated with political elections environment coupled with effects of adverse weather conditions slowed down performance of most sectors of the economy. 2. Growth in the third quarter of 2017 was supported by robust activities in information and communication (9.0 per cent); real estate (8.9 per cent) and accommodation and restaurant (7.3 per cent). On the other hand, the growth was somewhat constrained by subdued performances in manufacturing, electricity and water supply, construction and financial intermediation sectors. 3. Agricultural sector recovered in the third quarter of 2017 following improved weather conditions and grew by 3.1 per cent representing 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth compared to a growth of 1.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017, this growth was however a slowdown from a 3.8 per cent growth (0.7 percentage points to GDP growth) in the third quarter in The performance of the sector was supported by improvement in production of tea and horticultural products thereby reducing the effect of underperformances of the other sub-sectors on the overall growth of the sector (Chart 1a and 1b). 4. The Non-agricultural sector remained vibrant despite the subdued performance in the third quarter of 2017 largely on account of the heightened political activity. The sector grew by 5.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2017 compared to a growth of 6.5 per cent in the same quarter in It has the largest percentage points to real GDP growth at 3.4 percentage points mainly supported by the service sector. Chart 1a: Economic Quarterly Growth Rates ( ) ; Data: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

9 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Chart 1b: Sectoral contribution to Quarterly GDP Growth Rates ( ) ; Data: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 5. Services remain the main source of growth. It grew by 5.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2017 compared to 6.6 per cent in the same quarter in The slowdown was reflected in the subdued performance in accommodation and restaurant (7.3 per cent), transport and storage (5.4 per cent) and financial and insurance (2.4 per cent). 6. Nevertheless, the services contributed 2.8 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2017 largely supported by the Real Estate (0.8 percentage points) and Transport and Storage (0.4 percentage points) and Information and communication (0.3 percentage points) (Chart 1b) 7. In particular, information and communication services maintained a strong growth of 9.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2017 compared to a growth of 8.8 per cent in the same quarter in This reflected strong demand (both households and firms) for telecom services, availability of affordable ICT gadgets and internet connectivity provided by the mobile and internet service providers, efforts by banks to lower costs by deploying new technologies and the ongoing ramping up of mobile banking operations. 8. The performance of Industry slowed to a growth of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2017 compared to a growth of 5.5 per cent in the same quarter of 2016 following subdued performance of manufacturing (2.1 per cent), electricity and water supply (4.8 per cent) and construction (4.9 per cent). The slow growth in the sector was partly attributed to the extended electioneering period, prompting investors to scale down construction activities. It, however, accounted for 0.6 percentage points to growth during the quarter largely driven by the Construction Sector which contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth(chart 1b). 1.2 Inflation 9. Overall month on month inflation declined below the government s 5.0 per cent medium term target for the first time since June Inflation declined to 4.5 per cent in December 2017 and 4.7 per cent in November 2017 from 5.7 per cent in October The decline was largely on account of continued decline in prices of key food items such 2

10 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS as potatoes, kales, oranges and mangoes due to favourable weather conditions (Chart 2a). In the twelve month to December 2017, the average annual inflation rate was 8.0 per cent compared to 6.3 per cent in the same period in Chart 2a: Inflation ; Data: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 10. Kenya s rate of inflation compares favorably with the rest of sub-saharan African countries and especially its peers such as Nigeria and South Africa whose inflation rates were 15.4 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively (Chart 2b) Chart 2b: Inflation Rates in selected African Countries (December 2017) ; Data: National Central Banks 3

11 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1.3 Balance of Payments 11. The overall balance of payments position improved to a surplus of US$ million (1.2 per cent of GDP) in the year to November 2017 from a deficit of US$ million (1.3 per cent of GDP) in the year to November 2016 (Chart 3) due to the improvement in the financial account that more than offset the widening current account deficit. 12. The current account balance was at a deficit of US$ 5,110.1 million (7.0 per cent of GDP) in the year to November 2017 from a deficit of US$ 3,452.5 million (5.4 per cent of GDP) in the year to November This reflects the widening of the trade account balance and the increased payments to foreign investors (due to high interest payments) despite an improvement in the secondary income account balance particularly increased workers remittances Chart 3: Balance of Payments (Per cent of GDP) Data: Central Bank of Kenya 13. The deficit in the merchandise account widened by US$ 2,477.7 million to US$ 10,243 million in the year to November 2017 reflecting increase in payments for import of oil on account of the rebound in international oil prices and the increase in imports of machinery and transport equipment mostly on account of imports of wagons, locomotives and associated equipment related to the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project. In addition, net export of goods and services declined reflecting lower global demand for exports of manufactured goods; raw materials; chemicals and related products; and miscellaneous manufactured articles (Chart 4). 14. Flows in the Financial Account increased to US$ 5,870.6 million in November 2017 compared with US$ 3,298.5 million in November 2016, with the surplus reflecting higher liabilities compared to assets. The financial inflows were mainly in form of Foreign Direct Investments and other investments which stood at US$ million and US$ 6,439.6 million, respectively in November Other investment inflows mainly include foreign financing for Government infrastructure projects. 4

12 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Chart 4: Merchandise and Service Account Data: Central Bank of Kenya 1.4 Foreign Exchange Reserves 15. The banking system s foreign exchange holding was at US$ 9,202 million in November 2017 from US$ 10,327 million in November 2016 (Table 1 and Chart 5). The official foreign exchange reserves held by the Central Bank remained strong at US$ 6,919.5 million (4.6 months of import cover) in November 2017 compared with US$ 7,872.1 million (5.2 months of import cover) in November 2016 while commercial banks holdings was at US$ 2,282.8 million in 2017 from US$ 2,454.6 million in Table 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ million), Data: Central Bank of Kenya Chart 5: Official Foreign Reserves ((US$ million), Data: Central Bank of Kenya 5

13 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1.5 Exchange Rates 16. The Kenya Shilling exchange rate remained broadly stable against major international currencies. As at December 2017, the shilling exchange rate against the Dollar was at Ksh from Ksh in December Against the Euro and the Sterling pound, the Shilling weakened to Ksh and Ksh in December 2017 from Ksh and Ksh in December 2016, respectively (Chart 6a). Chart 6a: Kenya Shilling Exchange Rate, Data: Central Bank of Kenya 17. The Kenya Shilling exchange rate as compared to most sub-saharan African currencies, has continued to display relatively less volatility (Chart 6b). This stability reflected resilient receipts from tea and horticulture despite lower export volumes due to adverse weather conditions in the first quarter of Additionally, receipts from tourism, coffee exports and Diaspora remittances remained strong. Chart 6b: Performance of selected Currencies against the US Dollar (December 2016 to December 2017), Data: National Central Banks 6

14 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1.6 Money and Credit 18. Broad money supply, M3, grew by 8.4 per cent in the year to November 2017 compared to a growth of 6.2 per cent in the year to November 2016 (Table 2). The growth in M3 was largely on account of an increase of net domestic credit to the Government and other public sectors. The contribution of net foreign assets declined. Table 2: Money and Credit Developments, Ksh billion, Data: Central Bank of Kenya 19. Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system in the year to November 2017 contracted by 1.6 per cent from a growth of 26.0 per cent over a similar period in 2016 (Chart 7). The contraction in the NFA of the Central Bank is attributed to government payments and debt servicing while a pickup in growth of the NFA by other banking institutions is on account of decreased deposit holdings by banks abroad and other accounts payable Chart 7: Growth in Money Supply and Its Sources, Data: Central Bank of Kenya 20. Meanwhile, the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) improved to a growth of 11.0 per cent in the year to November 2017 from the growth of 2.1 per cent over a similar period in The pickup in growth in 2017 is due to an improvement in the growth of net 7

15 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS domestic credit. Domestic credit improved to an annual growth of Ksh billion (8.4 per cent) in the year to November 2017 compared to a growth of Ksh billion (3.9 per cent) in the year to November The improvement reflects increased lending to the Government and private sector. 21. Private sector credit increased to 2.7 per cent in November 2017 from 2.0 per cent in October 2017 and 1.7 per cent in September 2017, reversing the downward trend witnessed since August However, this was a slowdown compared to the 4.2 per cent growth in November The real estate, manufacturing, trade, consumer durables and private households have continued on a net basis to receive credit flows from the banking sector since January Interest Rates 22. Interest rates remained stable and low in the period December 2016 to December During the period, the policy rate (Central Bank Rate) was retained at 10.0 per cent to anchor inflation expectations. The interbank rate has remained low at 7.3 per cent in December 2017 from 5.9 per cent in December 2016 due to ample liquidity in the money market (Chart 8a), while the 91-day Treasury bill rate declined to 8.0 per cent from 8.4 per cent over the same period. The 182 day and the 364 day Treasury bills averaged 10.6 per cent and 11.1 per cent in December 2017 from 10.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent in December 2016, respectively. Chart 8a: Short-Term Interest Rates, Data: Central Bank of Kenya The interest rate spread narrowed to 5.9 per cent in October 2017 from 6.0 per cent in October 2016 with the Commercial banks average lending interest stabilizing at 13.7 per cent over the same period. Meanwhile, the average commercial banks deposit rate increased to 7.8 per cent in October 2017 from 7.7 per cent in October Comparatively, Kenya has the lowest lending rates among the East African countries ( Chart 8b) 8

16 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Chart 8b: Commercial Banks Lending Rates of selected Countries (October 2017), Data: Central Bank of Kenya 1.8 Capital Markets 23. Activities at the stock market picked up in December The NSE 20 Share Index improved to 3,712 points in December 2017 from 3,157 points in December 2016 while Market Capitalization improved to Ksh 2,522 billion from Ksh 1,902 billion over the same period (Chart 9). Chart 9: Performance at the NSE, Data: Central Bank of Kenya 9

17 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS 2.0 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS 2.1 Revenue 24. By the end of December 2017, total cumulative revenue including A-I-A collected amounted to Ksh billion against a target of Ksh (Table 3 and Chart 10). This performance was below the target by Ksh 68.3 billion. Ordinary revenue collection was Ksh billion against a target of Ksh billion an under performance of Ksh 44.8 billion. The Railway Development Levy collection amounted to Ksh billion against a target of Ksh billion. Cumulative ministerial A-I-A recorded an under performance of Ksh 23.5 billion for the period under review, reflecting under reporting by the ministries in their expenditure return for the period under review. However, compared to the last FY., the Revenue collection increased by 5.2 per cent. Table 3: Government Revenue and External Grants, Period Ending 31st December, 2017 (Ksh Million) 2016/ /18 Deviation Deviation Actual KShs. in Actual Target percentage Total Revenue (a+b) 674, , ,727 (68,327) (8.79) (a) Ordinary Revenue 623, , ,725 (44,828) (6.39) Import Duty 42,883 47,530 49,732 (2,202) (4.43) Excise Duty 81,664 75,182 87,902 (12,720) (14.47) PAYE 144, , ,930 (24,756) (13.53) Other Income Tax 145, , ,018 10, VAT Local 91,950 95, ,285 (5,372) (5.30) VAT Imports 68,586 71,386 83,354 (11,967) (14.36) Investment Revenue 21,646 15,152 11,128 4, Traffic Revenue 1,335 1,332 1,458 (126) (8.65) Taxes on Intl. Trade & Trans.(IDF Fee) 11,371 11,280 13,301 (2,021) (15.19) Others 1 15,005 19,451 19,618 (167) (0.85) (b) Appropriation In Aid 2 50,440 52,502 76,002 (23,499) (30.92) o/w Railway Development Levy 13,350 10,469 10,482 (13) (0.12) ( c) External Grants 5,775 7,828 25,379 (17,551) (69.16) Total Revenue and External Grants 679, , ,106 (85,878) (10.69) Total Revenue and External Grants as a percentange of GDP - 1/ includes rent of buildings, fines and forfeitures, other taxes, reimbursements and other fund contributions, and miscellaneous revenue. 2/ includes receipts from Road Maintenance Levy Fund and A-I-A from Universities 25. As a proportion of GDP, the total cumulative revenue and grants in the period under review amounted to 8.29 per cent compared to 8.88 per cent in the corresponding period of the FY 2016/17. External grants amounted to Ksh 7.8 billion against a target of Ksh 25.4 billion, representing an under performance of Ksh 17.6 billion.

18 Amount (kshs million) FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Chart 10: Total Ordinary Revenue 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Dec-16 Period Dec-17 Import Duty Excise du ty VAT Income Tax Other 2.2 Expenditure 26. The total expenditure and net lending for the period under review amounted to Ksh billion, against a target of Ksh 1,029.3 billion. The shortfall of Ksh billion was attributed to lower absorption recorded in both recurrent and development expenditures by the National Government and County Governments. (Table 4 and Chart 11). Recurrent expenditure for National Government amounted to Ksh billion (excl. Ksh 17.4 billion for Parliament and Judiciary), against a target of Ksh billion, with underperformance mainly recorded in wages and salaries, pension and A-I-A which accounted for Ksh 8.2 billion, Ksh 8.6 billion and Ksh 15.3 billion respectively. 27. Foreign interest payments amounted to Ksh 40.2 billion, compared to Ksh 25.2 billion in the same period of the FY 2016/17. The domestic interest payments totalled Ksh billion, which was higher than Ksh billion paid in the corresponding period of the previous financial year. 11

19 Amount (kshs million) FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 4: Expenditure and Net Lending, Period Ending 31 st December, 2017 (Ksh Million) 2016/2017 Actual 2017/18 Deviation % Growth Actual Targets 1. RECURRENT 520, , ,402 35, Domestic Interest 100, ,630 97,057 17, Foreign Interest 25,210 40,215 41,279 (1,064) 59.5 Pensions 29,984 29,860 38,412 (8,552) (0.4) Wages and Salaries 155, , ,630 (8,247) 20.3 Operation and Maintenance 209, , ,025 35, O/W : Appropriation-in-Aid 36,637 39,724 54,994 (15,270) DEVELOPMENT 274, , ,185 (82,923) (36.2) Development Projects (Net) 152, , ,603 (17,308) (19.3) Payment of Guaranteed Loans 1,283 1,703 1, Appropriation-in-Aid 120,630 48, ,249 (67,428) (59.5) 3. County Governments 116,252 84, ,486 (63,815) (27.2) 4. Parliamentary Service 11,927 11,747 15,474 (3,726) - 5. Judicial Service 5,226 5,619 6,373 (755) - 6. Equalization Fund - 1,443 3,858 (2,415) - 7. CF - - 2,500 (2,500) - TOTAL EXPENDITURE 928, ,965 1,029,278 (122,313) (2.3) Chart 11: Expenditure and Net Lending 300, , , ,000 Foreign Interest Pension Domestic Interest O&M County Governments Salaries Development 100,000 50,000 - Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Period 28. The total cumulative ministerial and other public agencies expenditure was Ksh billion against a target of Ksh billion (Table 5). Recurrent expenditure was Ksh billion against a target of Ksh billion, while development expenditure was Ksh billion against a target of Ksh billion. The percentage of total expenditures to the target was 71.0 per cent, while the percentage of total expenditures to 12

20 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS the target for recurrent and development were 78.9 per cent and 55.8 per cent respectively, as at the end of the period under review. Out of the Total expenditure recurrent was 73.0 per cent and Development was 27.0 Per cent. As indicated earlier, the discrepancy between actual and target expenditures partly reflect the non-capture of the sub-national expenditures and hence under reporting by Ministries. These ministerial expenditures are therefore, provisional. 29. As at the end of 31 st December, 2017, expenditures by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology; Teachers Service Commission and Ministry of Health (Social Sector) accounted for 40.3 per cent of total recurrent expenditure. While the State Department for Interior, and Ministry of Defence accounted for 9.8 per cent and 10.7 per cent respectively. 30. Analysis of development outlay indicates that the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum accounted for the largest share of the total development expenditures (15.2 per cent), followed by the Department for Infrastructure (14.8 per cent), Department of Transport (11.8 per cent) and the State Department Interior (5.5 per cent). The development expenditures in large ministries were below the target because of noninclusion of expenditures from some donor funded projects. 13

21 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 5: Ministerial Expenditures, Period Ending 31 st December, 2017 (Ksh Million) MINISTRY/DEPARTMENT/COMMISSIONS Dec-17 Variance Dec-17 Variance Dec-17 Variance % total Reccurent Development Total expenditure Actual* Target Actual* Target Actual* Target to total target 1011 The Presidency 3,347 4,138 (791) (228) 3,511 4,531 (1,019) State Department for Interior 45,836 65,208 (19,373) 9,535 9, ,370 74,250 (18,879) State Department for Correctional Services 9,279 10,784 (1,505) (364) 9,447 11,316 (1,869) State Department for Devolution (159) 232 1,770 (1,538) 551 2,248 (1,697) State Department for Special Programmes 3,282 3,893 (611) 1,686 2,284 (599) 4,968 6,178 (1,210) State Department for Planning and Statistics 2,522 2,646 (123) 8,821 14,147 (5,326) 11,343 16,792 (5,449) Ministry of Defence 49,918 53,052 (3,134) - 23 (23) 49,918 53,075 (3,157) Ministry of Foreign Affairs 1,662 6,594 (4,932) (122) 1,664 6,718 (5,054) State Department for Basic Education 62,320 49,774 12,545 1,911 4,608 (2,697) 64,230 54,382 9, State Department for Vocational And Technical Training 1,171 1,241 (71) 5,926 7,001 (1,075) 7,097 8,243 (1,146) State Department for University Education 34,115 54,523 (20,408) 2,187 1, ,301 56,268 (19,966) The National Treasury 14,534 41,887 (27,353) 4,014 23,375 (19,360) 18,548 65,262 (46,713) Ministry of Health 12,799 17,018 (4,219) 9,510 15,011 (5,502) 22,308 32,029 (9,721) State Department for Infrastructure 22,430 27,201 (4,771) 25,540 64,994 (39,454) 47,970 92,195 (44,225) State Department for Transport 691 3,234 (2,544) 20,339 44,485 (24,145) 21,030 47,719 (26,689) State Department for Marine time Affairs (61) (61) State Department for Housing & Urban Development (47) 5,036 6,360 (1,324) 5,765 7,135 (1,370) State Department for Public Works (66) (62) State Department for Water Services 1,213 2,364 (1,151) 14,699 16,126 (1,428) 15,912 18,491 (2,579) State Department for Irrigation (238) 3,313 7,079 (3,766) 3,512 7,516 (4,004) State Department of Environment 1,433 1,442 (9) ,194 2, State Department for Natural Resources 3,356 6,291 (2,935) 941 1,441 (500) 4,297 7,732 (3,435) Ministry of Lands and Physical Planning 1,067 1,118 (51) 1,184 1,730 (546) 2,251 2,848 (597) State Department for Information Communication and Technology & I (106) 4,171 5,274 (1,103) 4,484 5,694 (1,209) State Department for Broadcasting & Telecommunications 1,277 1,468 (191) (104) 1,364 1,659 (295) State Department for Sports Development 1,449 2,139 (690) 1,447 1,475 (28) 2,896 3,614 (718) State Department For Arts And Culture 1,409 1,468 (60) (19) 1,609 1,688 (79) State Department of Energy 926 1,149 (223) 26,079 41,274 (15,195) 27,005 42,423 (15,419) State Department of Petroleum (20) 616 1,923 (1,307) 681 2,009 (1,328) State Department for Agriculture 7,872 9,040 (1,168) 3,216 8,210 (4,993) 11,089 17,250 (6,161) State Department for Livestock 3,276 4,198 (922) 1,715 1,847 (132) 4,991 6,044 (1,053) State Department for Fisheries and The Blue Economy (165) 910 1,045 (135) State Department for Investment and Industry 1,004 1,057 (52) 948 1,181 (233) 1,952 2,238 (286) State Department for Cooperatives (473) ,098 (457) State Department for Trade 741 1,079 (338) 3 82 (78) 745 1,161 (416) State Department for East African Integration 1,152 1,454 (301) - 33 (33) 1,152 1,486 (334) State Department for Labour (62) (178) 814 1,053 (240) State Department for Social Protection 3,880 9,052 (5,172) 6,195 7,258 (1,063) 10,075 16,310 (6,235) Ministry of Mining (293) (865) 366 1,524 (1,158) Ministry of Tourism 676 1,377 (701) (896) 760 2,357 (1,597) State Department of Public Service and Youth Affairs 6,852 11,608 (4,757) 7,502 7,856 (354) 14,354 19,464 (5,110) State Department for Gender (346) 1,509 1,533 (24) 1,829 2,198 (370) State Law Office and Department of Justice 1,815 2,116 (300) (274) 1,825 2,400 (575) The Judiciary 5,534 6,258 (724) 968 1,605 (637) 6,502 7,863 (1,361) Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission 1,592 1,609 (17) (634) 1,592 2,243 (651) National Intelligence Service 17,857 15,665 2, ,857 15,665 2, Directorate of Public Prosecutions 852 1,051 (199) ,052 (198) Registrar of Political Parties (89) (89) Witness Protection Agency (93) (93) Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (8) (8) National Land Commission (2) Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission 25,390 32,860 (7,471) (345) 25,390 33,205 (7,815) Parliamentary Service Commission 3,906 4,959 (1,052) 695 1,191 (495) 4,602 6,149 (1,548) National Assembly 7,841 10,515 (2,674) ,841 10,515 (2,674) Judicial Service Commission (30) (30) Commission on Revenue Allocation (91) (91) Public Service Commission (46) 5 15 (10) (57) Salaries and Remuneration Commission (57) (57) Teachers Service Commission 89, ,126 (15,242) - 59 (59) 89, ,185 (15,301) National Police Service Commission (57) - 16 (16) (73) Auditor General 1,898 2,514 (616) (57) 1,911 2,584 (673) Controller of Budget (75) (75) The Commission on Administrative Justice (22) (22) National Gender and Equality Commission (5) (5) Independent Policing Oversight Authority (251) - 38 (38) (289) 30.5 Total 465, ,550 (124,699) 172, ,471 (136,355) 637, ,021 (261,054) 71.0 *Provisional Guaranteed Loans to Parastatals Payments 31. Cumulative principal and interest payments of guaranteed loans to parastatals with liquidity problems amounted to Ksh million (principal of Ksh million and interest Ksh 41.3 million) against a payment target of Ksh million (Table 6) for period ending 31 st December,

22 Amount (kshs billion) FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 6: Schedule and actual payments on Guaranteed Debt for the period ending 31 st December, 2017 (Ksh million) Quarter I Quarter II Cumm. December 2017* Borrower Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual EAPC TARDA KBC TOTAL (QTR) * Provisional 2.3 Fiscal Outturn 32. Between July 1, 2017 and December 31, 2017, cumulative overall fiscal balance (on a commitment basis and excluding grants), amounted to Ksh billion (equivalent to 2.28 per cent of GDP) against a targeted deficit of Ksh billion (equivalent to 2.91 per cent of GDP) (Chart 12 and Table 7). Over the same period in 2016, the fiscal deficit stood at Ksh billion (equivalent to 3.32 per cent of GDP). Including grants, the fiscal balance (on a commitment basis) deficit stood at 2.19 per cent of GDP against a targeted deficit of 2.61 per cent of GDP. The Fiscal Outturns for the past years is provided as Annex I. 33. The Government is planning to begin presenting its fiscal accounts in Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) format moving forward from the current GFSM 1986 format. GFSM 2014 is the latest standard for analysis, presentation of government fiscal accounts. Going forward our analysis of fiscal performance will be based on the GFSM 2014 presentation. In this edition of QEBR, we have attached the key GFS standard tables for public to note. Annex II to VI is a presentation of the Budget outturn using the GFSM 2014, for the budget 2017/18 and the first quarter 2017/18 actual. Chart 12: Fiscal Balance as at December , (200) (400) Dec-16 Period Dec-17 Revenue Exp enditure Deficit 15

23 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 7: Budget Outturn, Cumulative Ending 31 st December, 2017 (Ksh Million) 2016/2017 Actual 2017/2018 Deviation % growth 2017/2018 as a % of GDP Actual* Targets Actual Targets 2016/2017 Actual as a % of GDP A. TOTAL REVENUE AND GRANTS 679, , ,106 (85,878) Revenue 674, , ,727 (68,327) Ordinary Revenue 623, , ,725 (44,828) Import Duty 42,883 47,530 49,732 (2,202) Excise Duty 81,664 75,182 87,902 (12,720) (7.94) Income tax 289, , ,947 (14,275) VAT 160, , ,638 (17,339) Investment Revenue 21,646 15,152 11,128 4,024 (30.00) Others 27,711 32,063 34,378 (2,315) Appropriation-in-Aid 50,440 52,502 76,002 (23,499) Grants 5,775 7,828 25,379 (17,551) AMISOM Receipts 199 2, ,552 1, Revenue 2,565 2,382 5,992 (3,611) (7.14) Appropriation-in-Aid 3,012 2,002 19,208 (17,205) (33.52) Italian Debt Swap County Health Facilities - DANIDA B. EXPENDITURE and NET LENDING 928, ,965 1,029,278 (122,313) (2.32) Recurrent 537, , ,249 30, Domestic Interest 100, ,630 97,057 17, Foreign Interest 25,210 40,215 41,279 (1,064) Pension 29,984 29,860 38,412 (8,552) (0.41) Wages and Salaries 155, , ,630 (8,247) O & M/Others 226, , ,872 31, Development and Net Lending 274, , ,185 (84,366) (36.73) Equalization Fund 0 1,443 3,858 (2,415) County Governments 116,252 84, ,486 (63,815) (27.17) CF 0 0 2,500 (2,500) C. DEFICIT EXCL.GRANT (Commitment basis) (254,354) (197,565) (251,551) 53,986 (22.33) (2.28) (2.91) (3.32) D. DEFICIT INCL.GRANTS (Commitment basis) (248,579) (189,737) (226,172) 36,436 (23.67) (2.19) (2.61) (3.25) E. ADJUSTMENT TO CASH BASIS -29,631 (19,484) - (19,484) (34.25) (0.23) - (0.39) F. DEFICIT INCL.GRANTS (Cash basis) (278,211) (209,221) (226,172) 16,952 (24.80) (2.42) (2.61) (3.63) G. FINANCING 278, , ,172 (16,952) (24.80) Foreign financing 113,376 24,086 61,467 (37,381) (78.76) Disbursements 129,060 52,502 92,581 (40,079) (59.32) Programme Loans 3,658 2, ,024 (36.47) Project Cash Loans 11,473 5,378 16,247 (10,869) (53.12) Project Loans AIA 30,976 34,040 58,029 (23,989) Project Loans SGR _PHASE_1&2A_AIA 72, ,005 (18,005) (100.00) Commercial Finanacing 10,114 10, , O/W syndicated loan 10, (100.00) Debt repayment - Principal (15,684) (28,416) (31,114) 2, (0.33) (0.36) (0.20) 2. Other Domestic Financing 239 1,579 1, NET DOMESTIC FINANCING 164, , ,452 20, MEMO ITEM GDP ESTIMATE 7,658, ,654, ,654, *Provisional 2.4 Financing External Financing 34. Cumulative external financing for the period between July 1 st 2017 and December 31 st 2017 amounted to a net borrowing of Ksh 24.1 billion (Table 8). Total disbursements (inflows) including Appropriations-in-Aid amounted to Ksh 52.5 billion for the period ending 31 st December, 2017 against a target of Ksh 92.6 billion. The actual disbursement amount included Ksh 5.4 billion Project cash loans, Ksh 34.0 billion project loans A.I.A. and Ksh 2.3 billion Programme loans. External repayments (outflows) of principal debt amounted to Ksh 28.4 billion. The amount comprises of principal repayments due to bilateral multilateral organizations and Commercial amounting to Ksh 9.5 billion, Ksh 7.5 billion and Ksh 11.3 billion, respectively. 16

24 Amount (kshs million) FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 8: External Financing, Period Ending 31 st December, 2017 (Ksh Million) Quarter II 2016/17 cummulative Quarter I 2017/18 Quarter II 2017/18 Cumulative December 2017* Actual Actual Target DISBURSEMENTS: 129, , ,217 52,502 92, Project Cash loans 11, , ,284 5,378 16, Project loans A-I-A 30, , ,849 34,040 58, Project Loans SGR _PHASE_1&2A_AIA 72, , Commercial Financing 10, ,760 10,760 - Programme Loans 3, ,324 2, EXTERNAL REPAYMENTS: 15, , , , , Bilateral(incl. Italy Debt SWAP) 8, , , , , Multilateral (excl. IMF) 6, , , , , Commercial , , , NET FOREIGN FINANCING 113, , , , , Domestic Financing 35. By the end of December 2017, net domestic borrowing amounted to Ksh billion against a target borrowing of Ksh billion (Table 7). The borrowing comprised of Ksh billion from the Central Bank of Kenya, Ksh 74.4 billion from Non-Banking Financial Institutions, Ksh 3.2 billion from Non Residents, and a net repayment of Ksh 2.9 billion to the Commercial Banks, (Table 9). Comparatively, for the same period in 2016, the net domestic borrowing amounted to Ksh billion, comprising of Ksh 18.9 billion from commercial banks, Ksh 1.1 billion from Non Residents, Ksh billion from Non-Banks and Ksh 37.8 billion from the Central Bank of Kenya, (Chart 13). Chart 13: Domestic Financing 200, , ,000 50,000 - (50,000) Dec. 16 Dec. 17 Period CBK Commercial Bank Non Banks and Non Residents Tot al Source: Central Bank of Kenya 17

25 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS 36. The stock of Treasury Bills held by Non- Banks and Non-Residents recorded net increase of Ksh 9.2 billion, and Ksh 1.9 billion respectively, while the stock of Treasury Bills held by Commercial Banks decreased by Ksh 70.3 billion. The stock of Fixed Rate Bonds held by Commercial Banks, Non-Residents and non-banks recorded a net increase of Ksh 45.5 billion, Ksh 1.5 billion, and Ksh 45.1 billion respectively. Table 9: Domestic Financing, Period Ending 31 st December, 2017 (Ksh Million) DECEMBER MARCH JUNE SEPTEMBER DECEMBER CENTRAL BANK 37,830 35,840 (22,370) 8, ,925 Overdraft (14,271) (13,934) (44,204) 24,717 42,316 Treasury bills rediscounts Fixed rate Bonds Items on Transit (57) (52) (37) (21) (24) Frozen Account - (555) (555) - - Less Govt Deposits 52,158 50,380 22,426 (16,396) 66,633 2.COM. BANKS 18,858 12, ,536 12,618 (2,947) Advances , (4,293) Treasury bills (10,647) (28,561) 53,818 (23,450) (70,291) Fixed rate Bonds 24,219 22,162 99,764 36,097 45,497 Special Bonds - - (5,000) - - Zero Coupon bonds Infrastructure Bonds 6,147 10,291 10,291 (8,967) 15,789 Savings and Development Bond Less Govt Deposits (1,136) 8,282 5,155 8,466 10, NON BANKS 106, , ,676 26,317 74,355 Treasury bills 44,574 60,341 98,820 1,723 9,249 Fixed rate Bonds 44,471 49,071 38,722 33,189 45,085 Zero Coupon bonds Infrastructure Bonds 17,774 22,983 22,983 (8,843) 19,773 Savings and Development Bond M-Akiba Bond NON RESIDENTS 1,088 1,372 1,917 1,940 3,222 Treasury bills (363) (142) (356) 1,317 1,867 Fixed rate Bonds 1,115 1,179 1,938 1,019 1,464 Infrastructure Bond (396) (109) Savings and Development Bond Zero Coupon bonds NET CREDIT 164, , ,760 49, ,556 Note: Treasury bills as reflected here are given at cost value as opposed to Table 11 given at Face value. Source: Central Bank of Kenya 3.0 PUBLIC DEBT 3.1 Overall Debt Position 37. The gross public debt increased by Ksh billion, from Ksh 3,827.4 billion as at end of December 2016 to Ksh 4,574.1 billion by 31 st December 2017, comprising of 51.5 per cent of External debt and 48.5 per cent of Domestic debt. The overall increase is attributed to increased external debt due to exchange rate fluctuations and, disbursements from external loans debt during the period. Net public debt increased by Ksh billion, from Ksh 3,448.7 billion as at end of December 2016 to Ksh 4,218.6 billion by end of the period under review (Table 10). 18

26 Amount (kshs million) FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 10: Kenya s Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt, December 2015 to December 2017 (Ksh million) Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sept. 17 Dec. 17* EXTERNAL BILATERAL 481, , , , , , , , ,588 MULTILATERAL 751, , , , , , , , ,847 COMMERCIAL BANKS 366, , , , , , , , ,274 SUPPLIERS CREDIT 16,516 16,359 16,628 16,628 15,302 11,210 15,914 17,089 17,086 SUB TOTAL 1,615,183 1,617,506 1,796,198 1,854,711 1,896,443 2,101,391 2,294,736 2,310,198 2,353,795 DOMESTIC: CENTRAL BANK 101, ,648 99,856 58,945 85,528 85,316 55,061 79,201 96,797 COMMERCIAL BANKS 764, , , , , ,803 1,141,889 1,148,296 1,124,950 TOTAL BANKS 865, ,336 1,027,163 1,028,735 1,032,559 1,061,119 1,196,950 1,227,497 1,221,747 NON BANKS & NON RESIDENTS 674, , , , , , , , ,598 SUB-TOTAL 1,540,017 1,646,527 1,815,133 1,854,555 1,930,973 1,944,953 2,112,265 2,176,595 2,220,345 GRAND TOTAL GROSS 3,155,200 3,264,033 3,611,331 3,709,266 3,827,417 4,046,344 4,407,001 4,486,793 4,574,140 LESS ON-LENDING (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) (5,701) LESS GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS (305,496) (320,041) (394,856) (426,911) (373,016) (364,909) (428,774) (432,113) (349,836) GRAND TOTAL NET 2,844,004 2,938,291 3,210,775 3,276,654 3,448,699 3,675,734 3,972,526 4,048,978 *Provisional 4,218, Domestic Debt 38. The stock of gross domestic debt increased by Ksh billion from Ksh 1,926.2 billion in December 2016 to Ksh 2,220.3 billion in December The stock of Treasury Bills held by Central Bank, Commercial Banks, Non-Banking Financial Institution and Non Residents increased by Ksh 64.5 billion from Ksh billion in December 2016 to Ksh billion in December 2017, (Table 11). The total stock of Treasury Bonds, Fixed Rate and Special increased by Ksh billion from Ksh billion in December 2016 to Ksh 1, billion in December 2017, (Chart 14). Chart 14: Domestic Debt Stock by Instruments 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - Dec-2016 Dec Period Source: Data from CBK Others Frozen Govt A/cs Treasury Bills Fixed R.T. Bonds 19

27 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 11: Stock of Domestic Debt, by end December 2017 (Ksh million) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 1.CENTRAL BANK 107, , ,648 99,856 58,945 85,528 85,316 55,061 79,201 96,797 Overdraft 45,924 45,233 46,455 44,204 3,319 29,933 30, ,717 42,316 Frozen Govt Accounts 26,676 26,114 26,114 25,559 25,559 25,559 25,004 25,004 24,449 24,449 Treasury bills / bonds rediscounts 25,545 20,588 20,588 20,588 20,588 20,588 20,588 20,588 20,588 20,588 Items on Transit Fixed rate bonds 9,445 9,426 9,426 9,426 9,426 9,426 9,426 9,426 9,426 9,426 2.COM.BANKS 682, , , , , , ,803 1,141,889 1,148,296 1,124,950 Advances 1,717 5,446 5,559 5,093 5,530 5,857 5,657 11,020 15,977 7,524 Stocks - Treasury Bills 172, , , , , , , , , ,340 Floating Rate T. Bonds - Fixed Rate T. Bonds 373, , , , , , , , , ,284 Special Bonds 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Zero Coupon Bonds - Savings and Development Bond 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 7,648 Infrastructure Bonds 117, , , , , , , , , , NON BANKS 586, , , , , , , , , ,164 Stocks Treasury Bills 61, , , , , , , , , ,661 Floating Rate T. Bonds Fixed Rate T. Bonds 393, , , , , , , , , ,532 Tax Reserve Certificate Zero Coupon Bonds Infrastructure Bonds 110, , , , , , , , , ,925 Savings and Development Bond 20,580 20,580 20,580 20,580 20,580 20,580 20,580 20,582 20,580 20,580 M- Akiba Bond NON RESIDENTS 11,533 12,580 11,958 13,027 12,020 13,632 21,543 22,100 24,136 25,434 Treasury Bills 7,469 8,132 6,370 6,608 4,760 6,069 6,322 6,122 7,567 8,134 Floating Rate T. Bonds - Fixed Rate T. Bonds 3,611 3,994 5,135 5,966 6,806 7,110 7,174 7,934 8,955 9,401 Zero Coupon Bonds - Savings and Development Bond Infrustructure Bonds ,037 8,037 7,605 7, TOTAL DEBT 1,387,966 1,540,017 1,646,527 1,815,133 1,850,129 1,926,189 1,944,953 2,112,265 2,176,595 2,220, LESS ON-LENDING 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5, Less Govt Deposits 208, , , , , , , , , , NET DEBT 1,173,395 1,228,821 1,320,785 1,414,577 1,417,518 1,547,472 1,574,343 1,677,790 1,738,780 1,864,809 NOTE: Treasury Bills reflected here are at face value as opposed to Table 9, given at cost Source: Central Bank of Kenya 3.3 External Public Debt 39. In dollar terms, external public debt stock increased by US $ 4,253.0 million from US$ 18,504.5 million in December 2016 to US$ 22,757.4 million by end of December 2017 (Table 12 and Chart 15). The debt stock comprised 33.3 per cent, 35.8 per cent, 30.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent of debt owed to bilateral, multilateral institutions, Commercial Banks and suppliers credit, respectively. This increase is attributed to disbursements made during the period. 20

28 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Table 12: Kenya s External Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt December December 2017 (US $ Million) CREDITOR Dec Mar Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sept Dec. 2017* BILATERAL AUSTRIA BELGIUM CANADA DENMARK FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY ITALY JAPAN , NETHERLANDS UK USA CHINA 2, , , , , , , , , OTHERS TOTAL BILATERAL 4, , , , , , , , , MULTILATERAL ADB/ADF 1, , , , , , , , , BADEA EEC/EIB IBRD IDA/IFAD 4, , , , , , , , , IMF** OTHERS TOTAL MULTILATERAL 7, , , , , , , , , COMMERCIAL BANKS 1/ 3, , , , , , , , , EXPORT CREDIT GRAND TOTAL 15, , , , , , , , , In percentage of total BILATERAL MULTILATERAL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1/ EXPORT CREDIT TOTAL *Provisional ** include IMF item 21

29 Amount (US$ million) FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Chart 15: External Public Debt 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Dec. 16 Dec. 17 Period Commercial Banks Bilateral Multilateral External Debt Service 40. At the end of December 2017, the total cumulative debt service payments to external creditors amounted to Ksh 68.6 billion. This comprised of Ksh 28.4 billion (41.4 per cent) principal and Ksh 40.2 billion (58.6 per cent) interest (Table 13 and chart 16). Chart 16: External Debt Service by Creditors December, % 50% 34% Bilateral Multilateral Commercial Banks 22