BUY SHARE PRICE CHART T3 PRODUCTION & COSTS 4MTPA) COMPANY DATA & RATIOS. kt 40 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24

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1 MOD RESOURCES (MOD) Cashed up, 8 rigs on site, major regional drill program approved Analyst Phone Date Steuart McIntyre steuartmcintyre@boeq.com.au May 2018 We say Price Target Strategic Target BUY MOD has underperformed its peers for ~12 months, but we believe the reasons for this underperformance are rolling off (see p5) and the company is at an inflection point. MOD s regional drill programme was approved today, more than tripling the company s ground approved for drilling and with $23m in cash and 8 rigs on site, we believe the company is better buying now than it has been for at least 18 months. We maintain our Buy rating and ease our price target to 12c (from 14c). SHARE PRICE CHART T3 PRODUCTION & COSTS (@ 4MTPA) COMPANY DATA & RATIOS $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00 May17 Nov17 May18 MOD ASX 200 (relative) kt CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24 Copper-in-conc (100%) (kt) US$/lb All-in Sustaining Cost (US$/lb) Enterprise value $77m Diluted market cap* $100m Diluted shares* 2,386m Free float 100% 12 month price range $ GICS sector Board & Management hold ~14% (FD) *Diluted for ~101m options IMPLIED RETURN Materials Implied all-in return 186% COMPELLING VALUE AT THESE LEVELS MOD has an EV of only ~A$77m including $23m in cash, a material discount to our NPV 10 of A$227m for MOD s 70%-share of T3 at current copper prices. With the company s valuation comfortably underpinned by T3, we believe MOD s future should be heavily skewed to the upside, particularly if it has exploration success on its newly approved exploration programme. $23M IN CASH WITH 8 RIGS ON SITE MOD has 8 rigs on site and another 2 rigs on the way. With its drill programme for the T3 Complex approved today, MOD has more than tripled its ground g approved for drilling from ~200km 2 to ~680km 2. The company is planning to drill 4 key dome structures at A1, A4, A21 and A27 we provide more detail on pages 2-4 of this report. REDUCING PRICE TARGET TO 12C. MAINTAIN BUY. We ease our price to 12c from 14c as a result of a larger and more dilutive equity raising than expected. We have made no changes to our operational forecasts and our NPV is largely unchanged. Our NPV is based on a 4mtpa plant at T3 and copper prices of US$3.20/lb, discounted by 20% for normal development risks. We also ease our Strategic Target to 16c (20c). BLUE OCEAN EQUITIES PTY. LTD. L29, 88 PHILLIP ST SYDNEY NSW 2000 AFSL ABN

2 NEW GROUND APPROVED FOR DRILLING The T3 Dome Complex has now been approved for drilling and MOD plans to send 2 drill rigs immediately with an additional 2 rigs to be added in due course. Subject to results, MOD has a budget for 60 diamond core holes. MOD s Managing Director, Mr Julian Hanna said that state-of-the-art processing and interpretation of airborne EM data by Tshukudu s very experienced consultants has uncovered compelling new drilling targets spread over a wide area of the T3 Dome Complex. The MD also said: What is extraordinary is that the EM interpretation appears to have defined seven large buried conductive domes, several with very similar geometries and internal structures to the T-Rex Dome which underlies T3 With the T3 Dome Complex approvals coming through today, drill rigs have been mobilised to test: - A4 Dome (8km west of T3) - A1 Dome (20km northeast of T3) Airborne EM image for the T3 Dome Complex: Showing interpreted buried domes to ~500m depth (yellow), and locations of five EM sections (T-Rex, A1, A4, A21 and A27 Domes) A1 Dome (20km NE of T3) A4 Dome (8km west of T3) T-Rex A21 Dome A 27 Dome The MD also said: With a strong balance sheet and a very experienced team on site to manage the drilling, MOD is entering an exciting new phase to unlock the potential of this large, under-explored region of the Kalahari Copper Belt 2

3 The following pictures show the dome structure at T3 with the outline of the planned pit followed by the 4 target dome structures MOD plans to drill test. Interpreted EM section across T-Rex Dome showing planned T3 open pit (Expansion case Pit) The T-Rex Dome (shown above) which hosts the T3 deposit, is the only dome on MOD s ground which has seen any drilling to date! Cross sections of interpreted EM data from four target domes (A4, A1, A21 & A27) showing initial planned drill holes are included below. The distinctive EM conductor at T3 appears to be associated with a ~40m thick, locally carbonaceous shale unit with varying degrees of alteration and veining, intersected in many T3 drill holes (referred to as the T3 Marker Unit ). The initial objective of the drilling is to confirm if the prospective sequence occurs within the interpreted domes. Holes are being drilled in areas of structural complexity to test for vein hosted deposits of the T3 type and test the underlying prospective Ngwako Pan Formation (NPF) contact, which hosts other substantial copper deposits in the eastern part of the Kalahari Copper Belt. Drilling is initially testing domes with similarities to the T-Rex Dome. Depending on results, approximately 60 diamond core drill holes have been budgeted during the first phase of drilling along the T3 Dome Complex. Interpreted EM section across A4 Dome, 8km W of T3, showing planned drill holes 3

4 Interpreted EM section across A1 Dome, 20km NE of T3, showing planned drill holes Interpreted EM section across A21 Dome,, 28km NE of T3, showing planned drill holes Interpreted EM section across A27 Dome,, 3km S of A21 Dome, showing planned drill holes 4

5 WE BELIEVE MOD IS AT AN INFLECTION POINT While MOD s share price has underperformed peers over the last ~12-months, we believe the tide is turning and believe the key reasons for its underperformance should now be rolling off : Cause of Underperformance What s Changed? (1) Slow approvals to drill test regional exploration targets: After a change in legislation, it has taken MOD ~18 months to obtain drilling approvals for its regional exploration targets. In essence, MOD has been an explorer without the ability to test regional targets. Approval has now been secured to drill test T3 Dome, more than tripling MOD s ground approved for drilling from ~200km 2 to ~680km 2. MOD has also applied for approval to several other areas (T20 Dome, T4, T7 Dome) and thus now has a pipeline of approvals coming through. (2) Slow turnaround times on assays: This has been a source of frustration for both the company and investors. MOD has now installed a sample preparation facility on site which is processing over 100 samples a day and should materially improve assay turn-around times. Source: Blue Ocean Equities COMPELLING VALUE IN OUR VIEW MOD remains our Top Pick in ASX copper space we believe it is compelling buying at current levels: MOD has a fully diluted Mcap of ~$100m with $23m in cash, for an EV of ~A$7 A$77m At spot copper prices of US$3.07/lb, our NPV for MOD s 70% share of T3 is A$227m i.e. MOD is trading at ~1/3 of the NPV of T3 at spot prices In our view, one of the most exciting aspects of the MOD story is its exploration potential which is effectively ignored in the analysis above. 5

6 M&A HEATING UP IN ASX COPPER JUNIORS The last ~8 months has seen a marked increase in M&A activity in the ASX copper junior space, with 3 ASX copper juniors attracting bids: Avanco (AVB): Owns 100% of the Antas North copper mine in Brazil. On 27 March 2018, OZ Minerals (OZL) offered $0.168 per AVB share, or A$444m in an agreed cash & scrip bid representing a 121% premium to last close and a 119% premium to 1-1 month VWAP. Altona (AOH): Owns 100% of the Cloncurry copper project in Queensland, Australia. On 20 Nov 2017, Copper Mountain (TSX: CMMC) announced an all-scrip deal valued at A$93m to acquire AOH, at a 41.7% premium to last close and a 33% premium to 30 day VWAP. Finders (FND): Owns ~74% of the Wetar copper mine in Indonesia. On 6 Oct 2017, Eastern Field bid 23c per share or ~A$180m, a 0% premium to last close and a 0.6% discount to 30-day VWAP! While FND vigorously resisted the approach given no premium was offered, Eastern Field has secured over 82% of the voting rights. Our View V iew: Given many established copper producers have a lack of meaningful growth options, we expect this M&A trend to continue and believe in time MOD may become a target. In our view, MOD has a Tier 1 land position in Botswana, holding ~11,500km 2 in the Kalahari copper belt a larger ground position than Rio Tinto s iron ore holdings in the Pilbara! If MOD s regional drill programme can successfully identify another T3-type discovery, we believe the market (and potential suitors) may begin to believe MOD has its foot on a copper district, rather than a copper project. In short, we believe success in the freshly approved regional drilling programme could potentially put MOD on the radar for potential acquirers. It s also worth noting that Botswana carries considerably lower sovereign risk than both Indonesia and Brazil. The chart below provides a summary of relative sovereign risk according to Credendo, the world s second largest credit insurer of political risk insurance: Relative Sovereign Risk Source: Credendo. A more detailed breakdown for Botswana, Indonesia and Brazil is provided on p8. 6

7 NEAR-TERM CATALYSTS MOD had ~A$23m in cash on 10 April and with 8 drill rigs on site and another 2 rigs coming, we see a number of key near-term catalysts for MOD: T3 Resource update in late May / early June 2018 o Given the quality of the infill drilling results released to date at T3, we are confident the bulk of the inferred material including in the mining inventory of MOD s 4mtpa case will be upgraded into the measured and indicated category Exploration drilling results from 6 key areas: o T3 underground (drilling underway) o T-Rex (drilling underway) o T1 underground (drilling underway) o T3 Dome (drill rigs being mobilised now) 4 key dome targets A4, A1, A21 & A27 o T20 Dome (drilling from July 2018) o T7 Dome (drilling from Sept 2018) Bankable Feasibility Study for T3 by Q1 CY19 19,, with potential to include ore from at least 3 ore sources: o T3 open pit (incorporating the resource upgrade due shortly) o T3 underground (subject to drilling results) o o T1 underground (subject to drilling results). T1 is located ~20km from T3 and has an existing 2.7mt 2.0% Cu +50g/t Ag) Plus potential for other ore sources with exploration success at regional targets? 10 FOR 1 CONSOLIDATION FLAGGED On 30 April 2018, MOD confirmed that subject to shareholder approval, it intends to undertake a 10 for 1 share consolidation to reduce the ~2.3bn shares on issue to ~230m. The company believes the proposed consolidation will align the company s capital structure with its peers and increase its appeal to international and institutional investors. The stock is expected to trade on a post consolidation basis from 1 June. 7

8 EXPLORATION: DISTRICT SCALE POTENTIAL MOD s holdings comprise prospecting licences with a very large area comprising ~11,500km 2 in the relatively unexplored central and western Kalahari Copper Belt. Despite over 6.5mt of copper in resource being defined to date in this prospective copper belt, MOD s adjacent leases are largely underexplored. All the resources in the belt are sediment hosted deposits which occur within (two) sequences folded into domes and intersected by major geological structures, shallow angle thrusts, etc. This raises the potential for widespread copper sulphide mineralisation. MOD is aiming to find more shallow, thick, flat lying copper bearing structures like T3. Drilling in CY18 is designed to advance three resource projects: (1) T3 Pit (infill drilling complete resource update due in May CY18) (2) T3 Underground (3 rigs currently drilling) (3) T1 Underground (2 rigs currently drilling) The regional exploration programme plans to test the district scale potential of four areas: (1) T-Rex (2 rigs currently drilling) (2) T3 Dome (drill rigs being mobilised now) 4 key dome targets A4, A1, A21 & A27 (3) T20 Dome (drilling to begin in July 2018) (4) T7 Dome D (drilling to begin in Sept 2018) This initiative follows successful soil sampling programs (~31,800 samples collected to date) which has resulted in many copper and zinc anomalies scattered along 140km of the Central Structural Corridor (CSC), with similar characteristics to the anomaly that lead to the discovery of T3. The potential of the CSC is supported by results from the initial Airborne EM (AEM) survey along the T3 Dome (announced 21 July 2017). This identified many targets for drilling expected to start in May. Importantly, MOD discovered the T1 and T3 copper/silver deposits and the T2 copper/silver prospect by drilling below copper and zinc soil anomalies. Similarly, T4 was discovered by a previous explorer drilling below a soil anomaly. No other soil anomalies within the CSC have been drilled. MOD has 8 drill rigs on site (6 diamond and 2 RC) with another 2 rigs coming. Several of these rigs are currently being mobilised onto T3 Dome targets (A4 & A1). 8

9 MOD s drilling plans for CY18 is outlined below: Three of the exploration areas (T3 Dome, T20 Dome and T7 Domes) include large domal structures interpreted from magnetics, within the interpreted prospective sequence. Drilling has commenced at T-Rex, T an 11km long anticline centred around T3. Domes are considered prime structural traps for sediment hosted copper mineralisation. A recent example is Ivanhoe Mines substantial, high-grade Kamoa-Kakula copper discovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which appears related to a series of shallow domes. In an exploration update in late Jan 2018, MOD s Managing Director, Mr Julian Hanna, said: We see potential for other T3-type vein hosted copper deposits, associated with other soil anomalies and AEM targets already identified within our regional licences. At the same time, we will be testing the wider potential for district scale sediment hosted copper mineralisation which may occur in this highly prospective, underexplored copper belt, This coincides with an improved copper price, a leap in understanding of the geology and potential of this copper belt and access to many targets which have been awaiting environmental approval. 9

10 PRICE TARGET & RATING We ease our Price Target for MOD by to 12c (from 14c) as a result of a larger and more dilutive equity raising than expected. We have made no changes to our operational forecasts and our NPV is largely unchanged. Our NPV is based on a 4mtpa plant at T3 and copper prices of US$3.20/lb, discounted by 20% for normal development risks. We rate MOD Resources a high conviction Buy and our 12c Price Target represents an implied return of almost 170%. STRATEGIC TARGET We ease our longer-term Strategic Target to A16c (from A20c) based on the same assumptions above and by removing the discounts applied to our valuation to zero. Our 16c Strategic Target represents an implied return of over 250%. It s important to remember that MOD has its foot on a very substantial tenement package covering ~11,500km 2 of the southern end of the Kalahari copper belt in Botswana and the company believes its ground may in time prove to be a copper district. If the company can successfully find another shallow, high grade deposit, with thick, flat-lying zones of mineralisation like T3, we believe the market may begin pricing in a much higher probability of further exploration success, and may begin pricing in this copper district potential. If this occurs, we believe it is likely even our Strategic Price Target may prove to be too low. KEY RISKS MOD Resources is exposed to all the normal risks associated with developing and operating mining projects, including funding and construction risk. Assuming the company makes the transition into production, the company s revenues will be derived from the sale of copper and silver. Fluctuations in the copper and silver price as well as the Australian dollar could impact the company s reported cash flow (in A$), profitability and share price. As MOD s T3 copper project is based in Botswana, an investment in MOD Resources also carries Botswana sovereign risk. An overview of Botswana sovereign risk is outlined on the next page. 1 0

11 BOTSWANA: A PREFERRED JURISDICTION IN AFRICA Botswana is a landlocked country in southern Africa, with a strong stable democracy and a consistent record of uninterrupted democratic elections dating back to Botswana is topographically flat with the Kalahari Desert stretching across ~70% of the country. With a population of just over 2 million, it is also one of the most sparsely populated nations in the world. Botswana has an internationally respected mining industry, Mining Act and English language based commerce. Reports SOVEREIGN RISK The chart below show a comparison of country risk according to Credendo, Belgium s state-owned credit insurer and the world s second largest credit insurer. Credendo provides cover for companies and banks against political and commercial risks relating to international transactions. According to Credendo: Botswana is considered lower risk than Indonesia, being lower risk on 7 of the 8 measures below. Indonesia is home to Finders (FNX) Wetar copper project, which was bid for by Eastern Field on 6 October Botswana is considered much lower sovereign risk than Brazil, being lower risk on all 8 measures below. One of MOD s ASX-listed copper peers is the Brazil-based Avanco Resources (AVB) which was bid for by OZ Minerals (OZL) on 27 March Comparing Sovereign Risk Risk Score*: Botswana: 13/52 Indonesia: 22/52 Brazil: 28/52 Source: Credendo May *Our estimate which assumes A=1,B=2,C=3 for Commercial Risk 1 1

12 MODEL SUMMARY: FINANCIALS & VALUATION (A$M) Stock Details Enterprise Value $84m Recommendation: BUY Diluted MCap $107m Target $0.12 Share Price $0.045 Strategic Target (ST) $0.16 Diluted Shares 2,386m NAV $ Week High $0.072 Implied Return to ST 256% Free Float 100% Implied Return 167% 52 Week Low $0.039 Avg Daily Value $0.3m Macro Assumptions CY17E CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E Ratio Analysis CY17E CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E Copper Price (US$/lb) Diluted Shares m 1,922 2,337 3,569 3,569 3,569 Silver Price (US$/oz) EPS - Diluted Ac (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) (0.2) 0.2 Exchange Rate (A$/US$) P/E x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 26.3x CFPS - Diluted Ac (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) 0.4 Profit & Loss (A$m) CY17E CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E P/CF x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 10.9x Revenue FCF - Diluted Ac (0.2) (0.2) (1.5) (3.0) 0.6 Operating Costs (53) P/FCF x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 7.9x Operating Profit Dividends Ac Corporate & Other (4) (4) (4) (4) (5) Dividend yield % Exploration Expense (3) (5) (3) (1) (1) Payout Ratio % EBITDA (7) (9) (7) (5) 26 Franking % D&A (0) (0) (0) (0) (7) EBIT (7) (9) (7) (5) 19 Enterprise Value A$m Net Interest Expense (3) (10) EV/EBITDA x n.m. (10.2x) (11.8x) (41.7x) 7.0x Pre-Tax Profit (7) (9) (7) (7) 9 ROE % (23%) (25%) (7%) (8%) 6% Tax Expense (3) ROA % (21%) (24%) (7%) (4%) 3% Minorities (5% Govt) Underlying Profit (7) (9) (7) (7) 6 Net Debt or (Cash) A$m (9) (13) (27) Signficant Items (post tax) (0) Gearing (ND/(ND+E)) % (50%) (56%) (35%) 46% 42% Reported Profit (7) (9) (7) (7) 6 Gearing (ND/E) % (34%) (36%) (26%) 85% 73% Reserves & Resources Cash Flow (A$m) CY17E CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E Resources mt % Cu g/t Ag % CuEq* kt Cu kt CuEq* Operating Cashflow (3) (4) (4) (4) 27 T3 M+I % % Tax (3) Inferred % % Net Interest (3) (10) M+I+I % % Net Operating Cash Flow (3) (4) (4) (7) 15 T1 (Mahumo) M+I % % Exploration (8) (11) (6) (1) (3) Inferred % % Capex (0) - (50) (102) (5) M+I+I % % Acquisitions / Disposals Other mt % Cu g/t Ag % CuEq* kt Cu kt CuEq* Net Investing Cash Flow (8) (11) (56) (103) (7) Total M+I+I % % Equity Issue Borrowing / Repayments (1) (1) Reserves mt % Cu g/t Ag % CuEq* kt Cu kt CuEq* Dividends T3 P+P % % Other *CuEq based on US$3.20/lb Cu & US$18/oz Ag Net Financing Cash Flow Earnings Sensitivity CY21E CY22E CY21E CY22E Change in Cash Position (3) 7 A$m A$m % % FX Adjustments (0) Copper Price US$/lb +10% % 34% Cash Balance Silver Price US$/oz +10% % 2% FX translation to A$ accts A$/US$ -10% % 13% Valuation Discount Stake A$m A$/sh Balance Sheet (A$m) CY17E CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E T3 (unrisked) - 70% Cash Other Current Assets T3 (risk-adjusted) 20% 70% PP&E T1 (risk-adjusted) 60% 100% Exploration & Development Exploration & Other Projects Other Non Current Assets (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Corporate & Other (44) (0.02) Total Assets Debt - - Debt Cash Other Liabilities Option Strikes P/NAV Net Assets Risk adjusted NAV data, Blue Ocean Equities 1 2

13 MODEL SUMMARY: OPERATIONAL INPUTS & FREE CASH FLOW (US$M) Macro Assumptions CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E CY22E Copper Price US$/lb Silver Price US$/oz Operational Summary CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E CY22E FCF Contribution US$m CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E CY22E T3 (100% basis) Ore Milled mt Head Grade % % 0.95% Recovery % % 92% T3 (MOD's 70% share) Copper in Conc kt Revenue US$m Mining US$/lb Power US$/lb Processing US$/lb G&A US$/lb Transport & Marketing US$/lb TC/RCs US$/lb Silver Credit US$/lb (0.22) (0.22) C1 Cash Costs US$/lb Royalties US$/lb Operating Cost US$/lb Operating Costs US$m Sustaining Capex US$/lb Sustaining Capex US$m All-in Sustaining Cost US$/lb All-in Sustaining Cost US$m % AISC Margin % % 47% AISC Margin US$m Initial Capex US$m Exploration US$m Corporate US$m CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E CY22E Cash Tax Corporate Overheads Other Items (0) FCF pre Debt Service (11) (45) (78) Net Interest (0) Debt Drawdown / (Repayment) (0) (16) FCF post Debt Service (11) (45) (2) 5 11 New Equity/Dividends US$m CY18E CY19E CY20E CY21E CY22E Proceeds from Shares/Options Dividends Paid Change in Cash 3 10 (2) 5 11 Cash Balance data, Blue Ocean Equities 1 3

14 CONTACTS ANALYST AUTHORITY Steuart McIntyre David O Halloran Senior Resource Analyst Executive Director P P E steuartmcintyre@boeq.com.au E doh@boeq.com.au Philip Pepe Senior Industrials Analyst P E philpepe@boeq.com.au Michael Gerges Investment Analyst P E michaelgerges@boeq.com.au Adam Stratton Institutional Dealing P E adamstratton@boeq.com.au Janelle Manchee Institutional Dealing P E janellemanchee@boeq.com.au HEAD OFFICE Blue Ocean Equities Pty. Ltd. AFSL No ABN Stuart Turner Senior Industrials Analyst P E stuartturner@boeq.com.au Mathan Somasundaram Market Portfolio Strategy P E mathan@boeq.com.au Scott Calcraft Institutional Dealing P E scottcalcraft@boeq.com.au Allen Chan Institutional Dealing P E allenchan@boeq.com.au P E info@boeq.com.au W blueoceanequities.com.au Justin Pezzano Research Associate P E justinpezzano@boeq.com.au Josie Nicol Dealing Associate P E josienicol@boeq.com.au Doc Cromme Institutional Dealing P E doccromme@boeq.com.au Tim Potts Institutional/HNW Dealing P E timpotts@boeq.com.au Level 29, 88 Phillip Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia DISCLAIMER This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited. This is general investment advice for Institutional and Sophisticated Investors only and does not constitute personal advice to any person. Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client s financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives you should consult your own investment adviser before any investment decision is made on the basis of this document. While this document is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited has not verified independently the information contained in the document and Blue Ocean Equities Limited and its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or by implication, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Blue Ocean Equities Limited accept any responsibility for updating any advice, views opinions, or recommendations contained in this document or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the document has been issued. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded. Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this document or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this document or any other person. DISCLOSURE Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited, its employees, consultants and its associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Law may receive commissions, underwriting and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this document, and may from time to time hold interests in the securities referred to in this document. Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited and associates hold a material number of shares in MOD Resources at the date of this report and this position may change at any time without notice. Steuart McIntyre does not own shares in MOD Resources. 1 4