FREE CASH FLOW DISCLOSURE IN EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS. Katharine Adame, Jennifer Koski, and Sarah McVay University of Washington
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1 FREE CASH FLOW DISCLOSURE IN EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS Katharine Adame, Jennifer Koski, and Sarah McVay University of Washington
2 Background In recent years, more companies have been disclosing free cash flow in their earnings announcements.
3 While GE is a serial tweaker of financial disclosure, the company is doing the right thing by shifting its focus to more transparent free cash flow. Unfortunately, it paints an unflattering picture. Spencer Jacab, Heard on the Street, The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 25, 2018, p. B14
4 The Big Picture Does free cash flow disclosure provide incremental information to the market? Free cash flow is a critical input for valuation. But, it is not a required part of financial statement disclosure. There is no standard accounting definition of free cash flow under GAAP. The company must provide a definition and reconciliation with reported financial statements. Is free cash flow a redundant repackaging of information readily available in financial statements, or does it provide new value-relevant information?
5 Research Questions Which companies choose to disclose free cash flow, and why? Information vs. opportunism? How does the stock market react to free cash flow disclosure? Free cash flow Free cash flow disclosure Choice of definition
6 Free Cash Flow- Overview (Unlevered) free cash flow is often defined as FCF = EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation (and Other Non-Cash Charges) Net Capital Expenditures Change in Net Working Capital Berk and DeMarzo (2017, Chapter 8) Higgins (2016, Chapter 9) Welch (2009, Chapter 13)
7 Free Cash Flow- Overview (Unlevered) free cash flow is often defined as EBIAT FCF = EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation (and Other Non-Cash Charges) Net Capital Expenditures Change in Net Working Capital
8 Free Cash Flow- Overview (Unlevered) free cash flow is often defined as EBIAT FCF = Net Income + Interest Expense (1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation (and Other Non-Cash Charges) Net Capital Expenditures Change in Net Working Capital CFA Exam Review Materials
9 Free Cash Flow- Overview (Unlevered) free cash flow is often defined as FCF = Net Income + Interest Expense (1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation (and Other Non-Cash Charges) Net Capital Expenditures Change in Net Working Capital = Operating Cash Flow
10 Free Cash Flow- Overview (Unlevered) free cash flow is often defined as FCF = Operating Cash Flow + Interest Expense (1-Tax Rate) Net Capital Expenditures This definition corresponds most closely to the components as they are reported on publicly available GAAP financial statements.
11 Challenges Estimating FCF in Practice Marginal tax rate is not directly observed. Difficult to identify Net Capital Expenditures. Lack of disclosure of distinct values for purchases and sales of capital assets? Capitalized software? Capital expenditures financed using leases or installment notes? Excess (versus working) cash? Transitory (cash) charges?
12 Sample S&P 1500 firms from Use Python to identify earnings announcements that mention free cash flow. Hand collect data for 1,975 earnings announcements that disclose annual FCF number.
13 Sample S&P 1500 firms from Use Python to identify earnings announcements that mention free cash flow Hand collect data for 1,975 earnings announcements that disclose annual FCF number. 14.1% of 13,992 total firm-year observations in our sample.
14 Sample S&P 1500 firms from Use Python to identify earnings announcements that mention free cash flow Hand collect data for 1,975 earnings announcements that disclose annual FCF number. The most common definition of disclosed FCF (in 38% of disclosures) is Operating Cash Flow Gross Capital Expenditures
15 Sample S&P 1500 firms from Use Python to identify earnings announcements that mention free cash flow Hand collect data for 1,975 earnings announcements that disclose annual FCF number. The most common definition of disclosed FCF (in 38% of disclosures) is Simple FCF Operating Cash Flow Gross Capital Expenditures (OCF) (Gross CapEx)
16 Free Cash Flow Disclosure: Example
17 Free Cash Flow Disclosure: Example FCF = OCF CapEx Simple FCF
18
19 Definition of Disclosed FCF Another 21% of firms report some variation of Simple FCF. The remaining 41% report another definition, with very little consensus. No sample firms disclose FCF as defined by finance theory.
20 Definition of Disclosed FCF Another 21% of firms report some variation of Simple FCF. The remaining 41% report another definition, with very little consensus. No sample firms disclose FCF as defined by finance theory. A majority (68%) disclose FCF greater than net income.
21 Definition of Disclosed FCF Another 21% of firms report some variation of Simple FCF. The remaining 41% report another definition, with very little consensus. No sample firms disclose FCF as defined by finance theory. 37% disclose FCF greater than Simple FCF
22 Definition of Disclosed FCF Another 21% of firms report some variation of Simple FCF. The remaining 41% report another definition, with very little consensus. No sample firms disclose FCF as defined by finance theory. 25% disclose FCF less than Simple FCF.
23 Which companies choose to disclose FCF, and why? We explore two alternative hypotheses Information Opportunism We estimate a logit regression: Dependent variable equals 1 for FCF disclosers (initial versus ongoing). Explanatory variables include Firm characteristics that proxy for information and opportunism. Control variables.
24 Determinants- Information FCF is likely to be incrementally more informative for firms with: Larger accruals: capital intensity and deferred revenues Higher leverage Less volatile free cash flow An interest in attracting an acquirer Non-GAAP earnings tend to be disclosed when GAAP earnings are less informative (Loguee and Marquardt (2004)). Growth firms Firms with higher market-to-book ratios Firms with more transitory one-time events
25 Determinants- Opportunism Disclosure is more likely to be opportunistic when Earnings are negative and/or decreasing. FCF is positive and/or increasing. Firms have more leases. Control variables: Firm size (assets) Analyst following Institutional ownership Firm age Industry disclosure Year fixed effects
26 Which companies disclose FCF and why? Information Opportunism Controls Variable Initial Disclosure Ongoing Disclosure FCF volatility (-) (-) Sales growth (-) Market-to-book (+) One-time event (+) Earnings decrease (+) Positive FCF (+) (+) Increase in FCF (+) Firm size (+) (+) Firm age (-) (-) Industry average (+) (+)
27 Which companies disclose FCF and why? Initial disclosure is more strongly related to proxies for opportunism. Information Opportunism Controls Variable Initial Disclosure Ongoing Disclosure FCF volatility (-) (-) Sales growth (-) Market-to-book (+) One-time event (+) Earnings decrease (+) Positive FCF (+) (+) Increase in FCF (+) Firm size (+) (+) Firm age (-) (-) Industry average (+) (+)
28 Which companies disclose FCF and why? Ongoing disclosure is more strongly related to information proxies. Information Opportunism Controls Variable Initial Disclosure Ongoing Disclosure FCF volatility (-) (-) Sales growth (-) Market-to-book (+) One-time event (+) Earnings decrease (+) Positive FCF (+) (+) Increase in FCF (+) Firm size (+) (+) Firm age (-) (-) Industry average (+) (+)
29 Which companies disclose FCF and why? Effects are material. Firms with one-time events are 4-5 percentage points more likely to disclose (vs. unconditional mean disclosure of 14.1%). Information Opportunism Controls Variable Initial Disclosure Ongoing Disclosure FCF volatility (-) (-) Sales growth (-) Market-to-book (+) One-time event (+) Earnings decrease (+) Positive FCF (+) (+) Increase in FCF (+) Firm size (+) (+) Firm age (-) (-) Industry average (+) (+)
30 How does the market react? Is there information in Free Cash Flow itself? The decision to disclose FCF? The choice of definition? Simple FCF vs. adjusted definition
31 Does the market react to FCF itself? Regress three-day CARs on earnings surprise and FCF surprise: CAR = + (Earnings Surprise ) + (Simple FCF Surprise ) + i 0 1 i 2 i i CAR is 3-day abnormal return around earnings announcement Surprise is measured relative to trailing-12-months (ttm) results for the same figure reported as of the prior quarter end. Simple FCF is defined as (OCF Gross CapEx) and is computed using Compustat data for all firms. Estimate this equation for non-disclosers and Simple FCF disclosers.
32 Does the market react to FCF itself? Confirm prior research: Unexpected earnings are positively related to earnings (1) (2) announcement (3) returns Earnings Surprise *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) Constant *** *** *** (0.0005) (0.0021) (0.0000) Fixed Effects Year & Industry Year & Industry Year & Industry Observations 11,795 11,795 11,795 Observations with FCF disclosure R-squared
33 Does the market react to FCF itself? Coefficient on Simple FCF Surprise is also significant, similar in magnitude (1) (2) (3) Earnings Surprise *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) Constant *** *** *** (0.0005) (0.0021) (0.0000) Fixed Effects Year & Industry Year & Industry Year & Industry Observations 11,795 11,795 11,795 Observations with FCF disclosure R-squared
34 Does the market react to FCF disclosure? Indicator variable, FCF Discloser, for subset of firms that disclose simple FCF. Earnings Surprise *** (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise*FCF Discloser ** (0.0366) FCF Discloser * (0.0543) Constant *** (0.0000) Year & Fixed Effects Industry Observations 11,795 Observations with FCF disclosure 668 R-squared
35 Does the market react to FCF disclosure? Indicator variable, FCF Discloser, for subset of firms that disclose simple FCF. The market reacts incrementally when a firm chooses to disclose FCF. Earnings Surprise *** (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise*FCF Discloser ** (0.0366) FCF Discloser * (0.0543) Constant *** (0.0000) Year & Fixed Effects Industry Observations 11,795 Observations with FCF disclosure 668 R-squared
36 Does the market react to the choice of definition of disclosed FCF? Examine the subset of firms that disclose FCF, distinguish between those that disclose Simple FCF and those that disclose something different. CAR = + (Earnings Surprise) + (Simple FCF Surprise) i (FCF Diff) + 3 i where FCF Diff is (Disclosed FCF Simple FCF), the incremental adjustments some firms make beyond Simple FCF.
37 Does the market react to choice of definition? (1) (2) (3) (4) The market reacts incrementally to individual adjustments Earnings Surprise *** *** *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** *** *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) FCF Diff ** (0.0294) Positive FCF Diff ** ** (0.0189) (0.0234) Negative FCF Diff (0.4616) (0.7523) Constant *** *** *** *** (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0018) (0.0022) Fixed effects Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Observations 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 R-squared
38 Does the market react to choice of definition? (1) (2) (3) (4) in particular when they are positive. Earnings Surprise *** *** *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** *** *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) FCF Diff ** (0.0294) Positive FCF Diff ** ** (0.0189) (0.0234) Negative FCF Diff (0.4616) (0.7523) Constant *** *** *** *** (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0018) (0.0022) Fixed effects Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Observations 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 R-squared
39 Summary Free cash flow disclosures are increasing in frequency. There is considerable variation in the definition of disclosed FCF. (OCF Gross Cap Exp) is the most common definition. No company uses the definition from theory. Determinants suggest the decision to initiate FCF disclosure has an opportunistic motive, while ongoing disclosure is more strongly related to information proxies. Markets appear to price free cash flow surprises incrementally over earnings. There is value-relevant information in FCF itself, in the decision to disclose FCF, and in the choice of definition.
40 Extra Exhibits
41 Frequency of Non-GAAP Disclosure
42 Transitory Cash Charges (Example) Invacare Corporate reported adjusted net earnings for the year ended Dec. 21, 2006 that excluded $21.25 million related to restructuring charges. Not all of this amount was cash. Some portion reflects accruals. Invacare provided a free cash flow disclosure that added $9.935 million to free cash flow. The remaining amount was non-cash.
43 Figure 1. (Format of Disclosure)
44
45 Table 1, Panel A (Sample Selection) Number of Filings Firms Number of fourth quarter filings identfied by Python web crawler 23,659 2,333 Less: filings for firms with missing sequential Python identified earnings announcements 9, Remaining fourth quarter filings (full sample) 13,992 1,393 Number of earnings announcements with mention of "free cash flow" identified by Python text scraper (hand-collected data for these filings) 2,418 Less: generic mention of "free cash flow;" no value disclosed 388 Less: filings with only quarterly "free cash flow;" no annual value disclosed 55 Number of fourth quarter earnings announcements with annual FCF disclosed (FCF disclosure sample) 1,
46 Table 1, Panel B (Format of Disclosure) Number of FCF Disclosures Percent of FCF Disclosures Unique firms Tabular reconciliation (components explicitly provided) 1, % 283 Textual definition (components explicity provided) % 26 Textual definition (components can be inferred) % 40 No reconciliation or definition (components can be inferred) % 23 Components of FCF are explicitly provided or can be inferred 1, % Components cannot be inferred given available information % 42 Total 1, %
47 Table 1, Panel C (Disclosure by Year) Total firmyear observations in sample Firm-years disclosing FCF Percent of firm-years disclosing FCF First-time Free Cash Flow Disclosures Percent of First Time Disclosures by Year Percent of Disclosures that are First Time Year % , % % 15.7% , % % 19.5% , % % 14.8% , % % 14.7% , % % 21.3% , % % 13.9% , % % 12.0% , % % 11.0% % % 8.6% % % 8.2% % % 6.2% % % 6.3% Total 13,992 1, % %
48 Table 1, Panel D (Disclosure by Industry) Percent of Total Observations Number of Free Cash Flow Disclosures Industry Disclosure Proportion Number of GICS Sector (Sector Number) Observations Energy (10) % % Materials (15) % % Industrials (20) 2, % % Consumer Discretionary (25) 2, % % Consumer Staples (30) % % Healthcare (35) 1, % % Financials (40) 1, % % Information Technology (45) 2, % % Telecom (50) % % Utilities (55) % % Real Estate (60) % % Total 13, % 1,975
49 Table 2, Panel A (Common Definitions) Number of Disclosures Percent of Disclosures Unique Firms Simple FCF (operating CF - gross capex) % Modified Simple FCF (modified operating CF or gross capex) % Start from operating cash flows, other definition % Start from version of operating cash flows 1,794 94% 308 FCF starting point is not operating CF 112 6% 23 Total 1, %
50 Table 3, Panel A (Descriptive Statistics) Variable N Mean StdDev Min 25th Median 75th Max Disclosed FCF 1, ,324-3, ,282 CF from Operations 1,794 1,676 4,384-2, ,105 39,300 Capex 1, , ,400 Other capitalized assets ,686 Dividends ,262 Sale of PPE ,562 Special items ,754 Other Adjustments , ,400 Simple FCF 1, ,313-7, ,214 Net Income 1, ,145-17, ,864
51 Table 4, Panel B (Descriptive Statistics) Free cash flow disclosers Free cash flow non-disclosers Test of differences Variable N Mean Median N Mean Median Mean Median Capital intensity 1, , Deferred revenue 1, , Leverage 1, , FCF volatility 1, , Acquired indicator 1, , Sales growth 1, , MTB 1, , One-time event 1, , Loss 1, , Earnings decrease 1, , Positive simple FCF 1, , Increase in simple FCF 1, , Lease obligations 1, , Assets 1,975 14,969 3,809 12,017 12,187 2, Analyst following 1, , Institutional ownership 1, , Age 1, ,
52 Table 5 (Determinants Logit) (1) (2) (3) (4) Initial Disclosures Initial Disclosures All Disclosures All Disclosures Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Information Variables Capital intensity 0.535* (0.098) (0.824) (0.828) (0.877) Deferred revenue (0.856) (0.617) (0.979) (0.854) Leverage * 0.008* (0.757) (0.331) (0.810) (0.073) FCF volatility * *** *** *** *** (0.680) (0.099) (0.009) (0.002) Acquired indicator (0.791) (0.928) (0.794) (0.922) Sales growth * * ** ** (0.924) (0.780) (0.092) (0.048) MTB *** 0.005** 0.037** 0.004** (0.657) (0.603) (0.009) (0.012) One-time event *** 0.052*** 0.408*** 0.042*** (0.164) (0.204) (0.000) (0.000)
53 Table 5 (Determinants Logit, cont.) (1) (2) (3) (4) Initial Disclosures Initial Disclosures All Disclosures All Disclosures Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Opportunism Variables Loss (0.917) (0.646) (0.955) (0.565) Earnings decrease 0.358** 0.008** 0.356** 0.007** (0.015) (0.015) (0.530) (0.594) Positive simple FCF 0.914*** 0.019*** 0.877*** 0.018*** 0.557*** 0.061*** 0.577*** 0.060*** (0.002) (0.004) (0.000) (0.000) Increase in simple FCF 0.596*** 0.013*** 0.584*** 0.012*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.240) (0.313) Lease obligations (0.767) (0.559) (0.612) (0.229)
54 Determinants Logit (cont.) (1) (2) (3) (4) Initial Disclosures Initial Disclosures All Disclosures All Disclosures Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Coeff (p-values) Marginal Effects Control Variables Ln(Assets) 0.137** 0.003** 0.321*** 0.007*** 0.351*** 0.038*** 0.512*** 0.053*** (0.025) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Ln(Analyst following) (0.971) (0.120) (0.927) (0.122) Institutional ownership (0.597) (0.820) (0.397) (0.448) Ln(Age) ** ** ** ** *** *** (0.728) (0.041) (0.017) (0.002) Lagged industry disclosure 5.256*** 0.112*** 8.632*** 0.938*** (0.000) (0.000) Fixed effects Year Year & Industry Year Year & Industry Observations Obs. for which DV = 1 Pseudo R2 10, , Average marginal effects are reported in columns (2), (4), and (6). 12, ,841 1,
55 Market Reaction (Table 6, Panel B) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Earnings Surprise *** *** *** *** *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) Simple FCF Surprise *** *** *** *** *** *** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) FCF Diff ** (0.0294) Positive FCF Diff ** ** (0.0189) (0.0234) Negative FCF Diff (0.4616) (0.7523) Constant ** ** *** *** *** *** *** (0.0378) (0.0239) (0.0012) (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0018) (0.0022) Fixed effects Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Year and Industry Observations 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 R-squared
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