Macroeconomics Econ202A
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1 Macroeconomics Econ202A Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas UC Berkeley Berkeley, Fall 2014 November 18, /11 The First Oil Price Shock Nt ten r- ) N % I I I I I I N ~~OcI I 0O N tn ^N Nt tn Nt > I I I I >~~~t -- m - %C 1 - C -- N 00N o N 0 %e Nt I I I I I I O%OC 0O0 Xo F ~~Nt %C r o? o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0~ CQ 0 II I % N Nt % 00 Fo~~~~~~~~~I II II : mt ooo oo CN q tmffi > 0 0o O. 0 N i' ~~~~~~~~~~II I I II o > o ^ t? o4 o 4 o 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 oogco 0aO E t?, o o o z o z I t 16-4 D, O C? C 0000 Source: Sachs (1981), Table 1. 2/11
2 Global Imbalances % of World GDP Asian Crisis Financial Crisis U.S. Europe Japan Oil Producers Emerging Asia ex-china China Source: Oil Producers: Bahrein, Canada, Kuwait, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Norway, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia. Emerging Asia ex-china: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand. Europe: European Union. Data Source: IMF WEO, Various Issues 3/11 World Interest Rates percent world-short real US-long real 10-year TIPS Source: world-short real: ex-post 3-month real interest rate for the G-7 countries (GDP weighted). U.S.-long real: 10-year yield on U.S. Treasuries minus 10-year expected inflation. 10-year TIPS: yield on inflation indexed 10-year Treasuries. Source: Global Financial Database, IMF International Statistics, OECD Economic Outlook, Survey of Professional Forecasters 4/11
3 Allocation Puzzle Capital Inflows (percent of GDP) RWA TGO MOZ COG TZA MLI SEN MWI NER MDG CIV HND BOL CRI BEN LKA PER JAM NPL CHL CYP CMR GHA ECU GTM TUN DOM JOR KEN MAR HTI ARGFJI ISR PAK MEXPHL PNGPRY UGA THA ETH BRACOL MUS PAN SLV TUR IDN BGD URY MYS EGY IND TTO AGO NGA ZAF GABSYR KOR IRN CHN VEN HKG BWA SGP TWN Productivity Growth (%) Average Productivity Growth and Capital Inflows Between 1980 and Note: Sample of 68 developing economies. Source: Gourinchas and Jeanne (2013) 5/11 Cross-Border Asset and Liabilities (% of World GDP) G'7% 250%# BRIC% 25%# 200%# 20%# 150%# 15%# 100%# 10%# 50%# 5%# 0%# 0%# 1970# 1974# 1978# 1982# 1986# 1990# 1994# 1998# 2002# 2006# 2010# G-7# BRIC#(Brazil,#India,#Russia,#China)# Cross-Border Assets and Liabilities Defined as the Sum of Gross External Assets and Liabilities. Source: Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007a) updated to /11
4 Heterogeneity in International Portfolios: Net Risky Position 20%% 10%% 0%%!10%%!20%%!30%%!40%% 1970% 1975% 1980% 1985% 1990% 1995% 2000% 2005% 2010% G!7% BRIC%(Brazil,%India,%China,%Russia)% Net Risky Position Defined as Equity and Direct Investment Assets, Minus Equity and Direct Investment Liabilities. Source: Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007a) updated to /11 US Gross Asset Position (percent of output) 140" 120" 100" 80" 60" 40" 20" 0" 1952" 1956" 1960" 1964" 1968" 1972" 1976" 1980" 1984" 1988" 1992" 1996" 2000" 2004" 2008" 2012" Gold" Banks" Debt" Direct"Investment" Equity" Source: BEA, SCB, Treasury Surveys. Gourinchas, Rey & Govillot (2013) 8/11
5 US Gross Liabilities Position (percent of output) 160" 140" 120" 100" 80" 60" 40" 20" 0" 1952" 1956" 1960" 1964" 1968" 1972" 1976" 1980" 1984" 1988" 1992" 1996" 2000" 2004" 2008" 2012" Banks" Government"Debt" Corporate"Debt" Direct"Investment" Equity" Source: BEA, SCB, Treasury Surveys.Gourinchas, Rey & Govillot (2013) 9/11 Change in US IIP Line Type of investment Yearend position, 2012 Total Financialaccount transactions Change in position in 2013 Total Attributable to: Other changes in position Price changes Exchange-rate changes 1 Changes in volume and valuation n.i.e. 2 1 U.S. net international investment position (line 4 less line 35)... 4,578, , , ,093 ( 4 ) ( 4 ) ( 4 ) 5,382,996 2 Net international investment position excluding financial derivatives (line 5 less line 36) 4,636, , , , , ,287 33,596 5,456,542 3 Financial derivatives other than reserves, net (line 6 less line 37) 3 57,776 15,770 2,248 13,522 ( 4 ) ( 4 ) ( 4 ) 73,546 4 U.S. assets... 22,520,346 1,189,497 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 23,709,843 5 Assets excluding financial derivatives (sum of lines 7, 10, 21, and 26)... 18,900,585 1,989, ,763 1,344,660 1,616, ,451 11,412 20,890,008 6 Financial derivatives other than reserves, gross positive fair value (line 15)... 3,619, ,926 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,819,835 By functional category: 7 Direct investment at market value... 5,938,327 1,141, , , ,024 15,791 25,745 7,080,058 8 Equity... 4,980,979 1,089, , , ,024 15,791 22,316 6,070,002 9 Debt instruments ,348 52,708 56,137 3, ,429 1,010, Portfolio investment... 7,967,014 1,216, , , , ,606 3,652 9,183, Equity and investment fund shares... 5,311,509 1,132, , ,479 1,054, ,309 11,840 6,444, Debt securities... 2,655,505 83, , ,310 94,825 28,297 8,188 2,738, Shor t term ,909 31,801 45,373 13, ,705 11, , Long term... 2,240,596 51, , ,738 94,825 26,591 3,678 2,292, Financial derivatives other than reserves, gross positive fair value... 3,619, ,926 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,819, Over-the-counter contracts... 3,585, ,734 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,783, Single-currency interest rate contracts... 2,973, ,553 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,207, Foreign exchange contracts ,217 11,717 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 291, Other contracts ,319 48,898 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 283, Exchange-traded contracts... 33,980 2,808 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 36, Other investment... 4,422, , ,260 5, ,740 10,682 4,178, Currency and deposits... 2,052,987 80, ,641 34, ,005 1,972, Loans... 2,314, , ,978 15, ,422 9,642 2,161, Insurance technical reserves... n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 25 Trade credit and advances... 55,724 10,438 3,359 13, ,681 45, Reserve assets , ,035 3, , ,624 2, , Monetary gold , , , , , Special drawing rights... 55, , Reserve position in the International Monetary Fund... 34,161 3,411 3, , Other reserve assets... 49,723 2, , , , Currency and deposits... 24,933 4, , ,480 20, Securities... 23,471 2, , , , Financial derivatives Other claims... 1,319 3, , ,586 5, U.S. liabilities... 27,098,591 1,994,249 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 29,092, Liabilities excluding financial derivatives (sum of lines 38, 41, and 56)... 23,536,606 2,809,945 1,017,669 1,792,276 1,799,257 29,164 22,184 26,346, Financial derivatives other than reserves, gross negative fair value (line 50)... 3,561, ,696 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,746,289 By functional category: 38 Direct investment at market value... 4,670,942 1,119, , , , ,463 5,790, Equity... 3,409,913 1,052, , , , ,869 4,461, Debt instruments... 1,261,029 67,544 68, ,328, Portfolio investment... 13,978,875 1,524, ,943 1,033, ,157 26, ,523 15,503, Equity and investment fund shares... 4,545,371 1,276,116 85,407 1,361,523 1,285, ,081 5,821, Debt securities... 9,433, , , , ,285 26,306 55,441 9,681, Shor t term ,743 47,912 46,718 1, , , Treasury bills and certificates ,654 24,382 24, , Other short-term securities ,089 23,530 22,336 1, , , Long term... 8,588, , , , ,285 26,315 54,257 8,789, Treasury bonds and notes... 4,909, , , , , ,282 5,108, Other long-term securities... 3,678,933 1, , , ,155 26,315 40,975 3,680, Financial derivatives other than reserves, gross negative fair value... 3,561, ,696 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,746, Over-the-counter contracts... 3,527, ,922 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,709, Single-currency interest rate contracts... 2,912, ,254 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 2,142, Foreign exchange contracts ,181 4,391 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 290,790 Source: BEA IIP Table 1.3. Millions of USD. SCB July 2014 Yearend position, / 11
6 US Net Foreign Asset Position (percent of output) 20$ 10$ 0$!10$!20$!30$!40$!50$!60$ 1952$ 1956$ 1960$ 1964$ 1968$ 1972$ 1976$ 1980$ 1984$ 1988$ 1992$ 1996$ 2000$ 2004$ 2008$ 2012$ NA/GDP$ Cumulated$CA/GDP$ Source: BEA, SCB, Treasury Surveys. Gourinchas, Rey & Govillot (2013) 11 / 11
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