HDFC Ltd (HDFC IN) Low other income drags PAT
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- Toby Montgomery
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1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH HDFC Ltd (HDFC IN) Low other income drags PAT INDIA FINANCIALS Quarterly Update Top takeaways from Q3FY16 HDFC s performance was marginally above our muted expectation, led by slightly better NII growth, but provisions were higher led by standard provisioning in non individual loans. Consequently, net profits were in line. Net interest spread (2.31%) was flat yoy and declined 1bps sequentially. NIM (at 3.85%) was 10bps lower largely attributable to an increase in leverage. On a yoy basis, it was 8bps lower. Overall asset quality remained stable with negligible increase of only 1bps in gross NPA ratio (primarily due to increase in NPA by 1bps in the individual loans to 0.54%). NPAs in the project loan segment were stable sequentially at 1.12%. Key highlights Loan book grew 13% yoy to Rs 2.48tn; however, adding a sell down of loans, growth was 15%. Incremental loan growth was primarily towards retail (up 14% yoy), while non individual loans grew 10%. The proportion of the individual loan book increased marginally (to 70% vs. 69.3% yoy). Borrowings increased 13% yoy of this, bank loans grew 42% yoy while NCD/bond was weaker at 7.4%, primarily due to diminishing spread between base and NCD rates. Proportion of NCDs in overall borrowing declined to 53.7% from 55.3% qoq. Similarly, term loans from banks increased to 14% from 10.8% qoq. Management commentary HDFC booked moderate treasury gains (Rs 570mn) in Q3, it still has unrealised gains in its treasury books. Disbursals in non individual loans, where spreads are higher, were made in December 2015 hence this did not reflect in NIM, which fell sequentially. Higher provisions reflects the upfront standard provision made for growth in the nonindividual loan book, where standard provision is higher than individual loan book. Increase in tier 1 ratio is due to a decline in RWA due to revised risk weights. Outlook and valuation: we expect loan book growth of~15% over FY15 17 driven by stable disbursement in retail and pickup in non retail segment. Spreads should remain flat due to flexibility in borrowing mix. At CMP, HDFC s core book trades at 3x our FY17 adjusted BV of Rs 197 per share (net of investment in subsidiaries), considering a value of Rs 583 per share for subsidiaries. Earnings visibility, stable asset quality and superior Roe of +20% warrants a premium valuation to HDFC ltd at a time when banking sector is marred by higher credit cost and lack of corporate credit growth opportunities. We UPGRADE the stock to Buy with a PT of Rs 1,370 (vs. Rs 1,373 earlier). 27 January 2016 BUY (Upgrade) CMP RS 1170 / TARGET RS 1370(+17%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 1579 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1854 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 1400 / 1094 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 43.9 PAR VALUE (RS) : 2 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Sep 15 Jun 15 Mar 15 FII / ADR / OCB / NRI : FI / MF / BANKS : NON PRO CORP : PUBLIC & OTHERS : Key Financials Rs mn FY16E FY17E FY18E Pre prov ROE (%) Pre prov ROA (%) Net Profit 65,811 75,476 85,189 % growth Adj BVPS (Rs) ROE (%) P/E (x) Adj P/BV (x) EPS (Rs) CHANGE IN ESTIMATES Revised Est. % Revision Rs bn FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E NII PPP Core PAT EPS (Rs) Manish Agarwalla, Pradeep Agrawal, Paresh Jain (Rs bn) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 yoy % Q2FY16 qoq % vs. expect. % Comments Net interest income NII marginally above our muted growth expectation NIM (%) (8 bps) 4.0 (10 bps) (8 bps) Decline in NIM reflects increase in leverage as spread remains stable Spread (%) (1 bps) 231 bps Spread continues to remain healthy Loan Individual loan book continued to remain healthy Individual Individual loans comprises of 70% of loan book Loan including sell down borrowings Bank borrowings grew 42% yoy, NCDs grew 7% yoy, deposits grew 13% yoy NCD (%) (276 bps) 55.3 (163 bps) Proportion of NCDs declined due to higher growth in bank borrowings Operating expenses cost to income ratio (%) bps 0.0 bps bps Provision Provisions increased due to higher std provisioning in non individual loans PBT tax PAT GNPA % bps bps Individual GNPA at 0.54% and non individual GNPA at 1.12% Tier I capital (%) bps bps Increase in tier 1 capital was due to decline in RWA Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
2 Result Update (Rs mn) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 yoy growth Q2FY16 qoq growth INTEREST ON LOANS OTHER INTEREST INCOME TOTAL INTEREST INCOME INTEREST EXPENSES NET INTEREST INCOME NIM PROFIT ON SALE OF INVESTMENTS OTHER INCOME TOTAL INCOME PAYMENT TO EMPLOYEES OTHER EXPENSES DEPRECIATION TOTAL EXPENDITURE OPERATING INCOME BEFORE PROV PROVISIONS & CONTINGENCIES PROFIT BEFORE TAX PROVISION FOR TAXES NET PROFIT Loan book (Rs bn) Borrowings (Rs bn) NPA (%) CAR TIER I CAR TIER II Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Sum of the Parts valuation Subsidiary Stake Business Valuation Rs bn Valuation per share Valuation Criteria HDFC Parent (housing finance) 100% x FY17e Core Adj BV of Rs 197 HDFC Bank 21.7% Valuing at 3.75x FY17E ABVPS of Rs 326 HDFC AMC 60.0% % of FY17E AUM Rs 2013 bn Gruh Finance Ltd 58.6% x FY17E ABV Rs10.5bn HDFC Ergo General Insurance 74.0% x FY16E Book value HDFC Standard Life Insurance 72.4% x FY17E NBAP + FY17E Embedded Value HDFC Venture Capital 80.5% 4 2 Discounted Cash flow Total 1368 Gains in listed Equity Investments 2 2 valued at 20% discount to current market price Fair Value 1370 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
3 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e Interest on Loans 2,47,138 2,71,852 3,09,911 3,53,299 Interest on Investments 3,646 3,281 3,609 3,970 Others 8,918 9,007 9,097 9,552 Total Interest Earned 2,59,701 2,84,140 3,22,617 3,66,821 Total Interest Expended 1,79,751 1,94,046 2,19,154 2,49,290 Net Interest Income 79,951 90,094 1,03,463 1,17,530 Total non interest income 15,007 15,475 17,665 19,552 Total Income 94,958 1,05,569 1,21,127 1,37,082 Personnel Expenses 3,285 3,679 4,231 4,823 Other Expenses 3,782 4,312 4,761 5,287 Total Op expenses 7,066 7,991 8,991 10,110 Net Inc (Loss) before prov 87,891 97,578 1,12,136 1,26,972 Provision and contingencies 1,650 2,200 2,750 3,500 Net Inc (Loss) before tax 86,241 95,378 1,09,386 1,23,462 Provision for Income Tax 25,340 29,567 33,910 38,273 Net Profit 60,901 65,811 75,476 85,189 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e Assets Cash & Bal with RBI 33,647 37,070 40,795 44,907 Loans, Adv & Int accrued 22,77,002 26,33,907 30,23,856 34,48,173 Investments 1,42,943 1,48,624 1,54,094 1,60,437 Fixed Assets (Net) 6,770 7,447 8,191 9,010 Other assets 79,156 83,114 87,269 91,633 Deferred tax assets Total Assets 25,39,517 29,10,161 33,14,206 37,54,160 Liabilities Share capital 3,149 3,149 3,149 3,149 Reserves and Surplus 3,06,550 3,42,894 3,87,983 4,41,863 Subordinated debt 59,750 64,750 69,750 74,750 Borrowing 20,26,240 23,32,238 26,77,480 30,51,640 Other liabilities 1,01,929 1,23,032 1,28,996 1,32,390 Provisions and contingencies 41,898 44,098 46,848 50,348 Total Liabilities 25,39,517 29,10,161 33,14,206 37,54,160 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Valuation Ratios Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e Earnings and Valuation Ratios Pre provision Operating RoAE (%) RoAE (%) Pre provision Operating ROA (%) RoAB (%) EPS (Rs.) Dividend per share (Rs.) Book Value (Rs.) Adj BV (Rs.) Revenue Analysis Interest income on IBA (%) Interest cost on IBL (%) NIM on IBA / AWF (%) Core fee Inc / AWF (%) Portfolio gains / Total Inc (%) Op.Exp / TI (%) Op.Exp / AWF (%) Employee exps / Op exps (%) Tax / Pre tax earnings (%) Asset Quality GNPAs / Gr Adv (%) NNPAs / Net Adv (%) Growth Ratio Loans (%) Investments (%) Deposits (%) Networth (%) Net Int Income (%) Non fund based income (%) Non Int Exp (%) Profit Before Tax (%) Net profit (%) Asset / Liability Profile Avg Adv / Avg Dep (%) Avg Invst / Avg Dep (%) Incr Adv / Deposits (%) Avg Cash / Avg Dep (%) Capital Adequacy Ratio: Tier I (%) Internal Capital Generation rate (%) NNPAs to Equity (%) Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
4 Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History N (TP 1185) N (TP 1373) N (TP 825) N (TP 825) N (TP 876) N (TP 990) N (TP 990) J 13 M 13A 13 J 13 J 13 A 13 O 13 N 13 J 14 F 14 A 14M 14 J 14 A 14 O 14 N 14 J 15 F 15 A 15 M 15 J 15 A 15 S 15 N 15 D 15 Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL 15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than 15% SELL <= 15% Target price is less than or equal to 15%. Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
5 Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head Institutional Equity) (91 22) Jignesh Shah (Head Equity Derivatives) (91 22) Research Automobiles Infrastructure & IT Services Strategy Dhawal Doshi (9122) Vibhor Singhal (9122) Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Nitesh Sharma, CFA (9122) Logistics, Transportation & Midcap Anindya Bhowmik (9122) Agri Inputs Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) Telecom Gauri Anand (9122) Media Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Banking, NBFCs Manoj Behera (9122) Manoj Behera (9122) Manish Agarwalla (9122) Metals Technicals Pradeep Agrawal (9122) Dhawal Doshi (9122) Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) Paresh Jain (9122) Yash Doshi (9122) Production Manager Consumer Midcap Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Amol Rao (9122) Editor Jubil Jain (9122) Oil & Gas Roshan Sony Cement Sabri Hazarika (9122) Sr. Manager Equities Support Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) Pharma Rosie Ferns (9122) Economics Surya Patra (9122) Anjali Verma (9122) Mehul Sheth (9122) Engineering, Capital Goods Mid Caps & Database Manager Jonas Bhutta (9122) Deepak Agarwal (9122) Hrishikesh Bhagat (9122) Sales & Distribution Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) Dilesh Doshi (9122) Kishor Binwal (9122) Suniil Pandit (9122) Bhavin Shah (9122) Execution Mayur Shah (9122) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06 00 RafflesCityTower, Singapore Tel : (65) Fax: (65) JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4 2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo ku Tokyo Tel: (81) Fax: (81) THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, VorawatBuilding, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66) Fax: (66) UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of TradeBuilding Chicago, IL USA Tel (1) Fax: (1) Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B 3 6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) Fax (60) INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZTower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) Fax: (62) FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33) Fax : (33) AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) Fax: (61) INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai Tel: (9122) Fax: (9122) HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax: (852) CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 550 Yan An East Road, OceanTower Unit 2318 Shanghai Tel (86) Fax: (86) UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) Fax: (44) SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) Fax: (94) Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
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