Axis Bank (AXSB IN) Stable quarter
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- Jodie O’Neal’
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1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Axis Bank (AXSB IN) Stable quarter INDIA BANKING Quarterly Update 16 January 2015 Axis Bank reported a healthy performance with net profits growth of 18% YoY ( 3.4% QoQ) to Rs 16.1bn, broadly in line with our expectation. The NII growth of 18% was aided by 23% YoY growth in advances. Margins declined 4 bps QoQ as bank took a cut of 10 bps in the base rate. Advances growth was driven by healthy growth in corporate and retail loan book. Overall asset quality continued to remain firm with stress asset formation of Rs8.4bn (slippage Rs7.1bn & restructuring of Rs1.3bn). Key highlights during the quarter: NII grew by 20% YoY to Rs 35.9 bn, driven by 23% YoY growth in advances and 22bps increase in NIM on a YoY basis to 3.93%. On a sequential basis NIM declined 4 bps primarily due to 10 bps reduction in the base rate taken by the bank in beginning of Q3FY15. NIM for the 9MFY15 was at 3.96%. The management has maintained NIM guidance of over 3.5% in FY15 and FY16. Advances grew by 23% YoY, driven by healthy growth in retail (+32.8% YoY) and corporate segment (+24.8% YoY). SME grew moderately by 16.6% YoY. Deposit growth was moderate at 11% YoY, as the bank resorted to borrowings through infra bonds amounting to Rs 57 bn. Average CASA grew by 16% YoY. CASA (on daily average balances) was stable at 40%. Non interest income grew by 24% YoY to Rs 20.4 bn, mainly on account of buoyancy in core fee income, while growth in forex income was muted ( 5.8% YoY). Core fee income growth picked up mainly due to strong growth in retail fee income (41.4% YoY), while corporate fee income growth declined 5% YoY. The management expects lower double digit growth in fee income going forward. Operating expenses was at 14.9% YoY, driven by growth in staff expenses (+19% YoY). Cost/Income (excl treasury) was stable at 44%. GNPAs and NNPA were stable sequentially at 1.34% and 0.44% respectively. Stressed asset formation on a sequential basis declined to Rs8.4 bn (comprising slippages of Rs7.1 bn and fresh restructuring of Rs1.3 bn) compared to Rs 14.9bn in Q2FY15. The management continued to guide stressed asset formation of Rs65bn in FY15. The outstanding restructured asset stood at Rs68.1bn (2.6% of gross advances). Outlook and Valuation The bank has been reaping benefits of developing a sound low cost liability franchise which is reflected in its stable funding cost and superior margin. With strong capital the bank is well placed to reap the benefits of uptick in the credit cycle going forward. We expect high credit growth to drive operating profit at CAGR of 15% & PAT at CAGR of 18%, and return ratios of 1.8% and RoE above 18% over FY At CMP of Rs 515, the stock trades at 2.5x FY16e adjusted book value per share (ABVPS) of Rs209 and 2.1x FY17e ABVPS of Rs244. We have rolled over our price target to FY17e ABVPS and have maintained Buy with revised price target of Rs 610. BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 515 TARGET RS 610 (+18%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 2363 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1167 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 506 / 217 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 29.1 PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % PROMOTERS : 28.9 FII / NRI : 51.5 FI / MF : 10.8 NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : 1.5 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 7.3 PRICE PERFORMANCE, % 1MTH 3MTH 1YR ABS REL TO BSE PRICE VS. SENSEX Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 AXIS Bank Source: Phillip Capital India Research KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY15 FY16E FY17E Pre prov ROE (%) Pre prov ROA (%) Net Profit 73,033 84,922 1,01,462 % growth EPS (Rs) Adj BVPS (Rs) ROE (%) P/E (x) Adj P/BV (x) c BSE Sensex Source: PhillipCapital India Research Est. Manish Agarwalla ( ) Pradeep Agrawal ( ) Paresh Jain ( ) Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
2 Result Update (Rs mn) Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY growth Q2FY15 QoQ growth Interest Earned 88,897 77, , Interest Expended 53,002 48, , Net interest income 35,896 29, , Net interest margins Non interest income 20,391 16, , Total Income 56,286 46, , Total operating expenses 23,140 20, , Payroll costs 7,785 6, , Others 15,356 13, , Pre provision Profit 33,146 26, , Provisions & Contingencies % Operating income PBT 28,075 24, , Provision for Taxes 9,077 8, , % of PBT Net Profit 18,998 16, , Equity 4,727 4, , EPS, Rs Advances 26,05,673 21,14, ,21, Deposits 29,11,987 26,23, ,37, Advances / Deposits (%) Gross NPAs Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs Net NPAs (%) CAR Total Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
3 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17ee Interest on Loans 2,19,504 2,56,820 3,00,479 3,56,068 Interest on Investments 83,431 89,271 99,984 1,09,982 Others 3,476 3,824 4,015 4,617 Total Interest Earned 3,06,412 3,49,915 4,04,478 4,70,668 Total Interest Expended 1,86,895 2,08,243 2,39,091 2,75,592 Net Interest Income 1,19,516 1,41,672 1,65,387 1,95,075 Total non interest income 74,052 80,685 86,390 99,324 Total Income 1,93,569 2,22,357 2,51,777 2,94,399 Personnel Expenses 26,013 30,956 35,599 41,295 Other Expenses 52,994 59,215 67,210 77,633 Total Op expenses 79,008 90,171 1,02,809 1,18,928 Net Inc (Loss) before prov 1,14,561 1,32,186 1,48,968 1,75,471 Provision and contingencies 21,075 23,181 22,218 24,035 Net Inc (Loss) before tax 93,486 1,09,004 1,26,750 1,51,46 Provision for Income Tax 31,310 35,971 41,827 49,974 Net Profit 62,177 73,033 84,922 1,01,462 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Assets Cash & Bal with RBI 2,82,387 3,10,626 3,35,530 3,62,616 Loans, Adv & Int accrued 23,00,668 27,75,212 33,31,039 39,98,203 Investments 11,69,339 13,32,693 15,25,175 17,52,426 Fixed Assets (Net) 24,102 26,102 28,102 30,102 Other assets 55,953 64,346 73,998 85,098 Total Assets 38,32,449 45,08,989 52,93,854 62,28,455 Liabilities Share capital 4,698 4,722 4,746 4,769 Reserves and Surplus 3,77,506 4,40,595 5,14,414 6,03,600 Hybrid Capital 14,824 19,824 24,824 29,824 Debt 1,71,260 2,11,260 2,51,260 2,91,260 Borrowing 3,16,825 5,06,920 5,57,612 5,91,068 Total Deposits 28,20,874 31,94,051 37,52,932 44,53,215 Other liab incld prov 1,26,461 1,31,616 1,88,066 2,54,717 Total Liabilities 38,32,449 45,08,989 52,93,854 62,28,455 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Valuation Ratios FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Earnings and Valuation Ratios Pre provision Operating RoAE (%) RoAE (%) Pre provision Operating ROA (%) RoAB (%) EPS (Rs.) Dividend per share (Rs.) Book Value (Rs.) Adj BV (Rs.) Revenue Analysis Interest income on IBA (%) Interest cost on IBL (%) NIM on IBA / AWF (%) Core fee Inc / AWF (%) Portfolio gains / Total Inc (%) Op.Exp / TI (%) Op.Exp / AWF (%) Employee exps / Op exps (%) Tax / Pre tax earnings (%) Asset Quality GNPAs / Gr Adv (%) NNPAs / Net Adv (%) Growth Ratio Loans (%) Investments (%) Deposits (%) Networth (%) Net Int Income (%) Non fund based income (%) 22.3 (0.3) Non Int Exp (%) Profit Before Tax (%) Net profit (%) Asset / Liability Profile Avg CASA/ Deposits (%) Avg Adv / Avg Dep (%) Avg Invst / Avg Dep (%) Incr Adv / Deposits (%) Avg Cash / Avg Dep (%) Capital Adequacy Ratio: Tier I (%) Internal Capital Generation rate (%) NNPAs to Equity (%) Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
4 Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head Institutional Equity) (91 22) Jignesh Shah (Head Equity Derivatives) (91 22) Research Automobiles Engineering, Capital Goods Pharma Dhawal Doshi (9122) Ankur Sharma (9122) Surya Patra (9122) Priya Ranjan (9122) Hrishikesh Bhagat (9122) Retail, Real Estate Banking, NBFCs Infrastructure & IT Services Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) Manish Agarwalla (9122) Vibhor Singhal (9122) Neha Garg (9122) Pradeep Agrawal (9122) Deepan Kapadia (9122) Paresh Jain (9122) Technicals Midcap Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) Consumer, Media, Telecom Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Production Manager Jubil Jain (9122) Metals Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) Dhawal Doshi (9122) Ankit Gor (9122) Cement Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Gauri Anand (9122) Sr. Manager Equities Support Economics Deepak Pareek (9122) Rosie Ferns (9122) Anjali Verma (9122) Sales & Distribution Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) Dilesh Doshi (9122) Kishor Binwal (9122) Suniil Pandit (9122) Sidharth Agrawal (9122) Execution Bhavin Shah (9122) Mayur Shah (9122) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06 00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore Tel : (65) Fax: (65) JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4 2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo ku Tokyo Tel: (81) Fax: (81) THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66) Fax: (66) UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel (1) Fax: (1) Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B 3 6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) Fax (60) INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) Fax: (62) FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33) Fax : (33) AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) Fax: (61) INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai Tel: (9122) Fax: (9122) HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax: (852) CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai Tel (86) Fax: (86) UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) Fax: (44) SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) Fax: (94) Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
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