Open Economy Macroeconomics Lecture Notes

Transcription

1 Open Economy Macroeconomics Lecture Notes Open Economy Macroeconomics Ozan Hatipoglu Department of Economics, Bogazici University Spring 2014 Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

2 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

3 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

4 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Provides credit for foreign trade Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

5 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Provides credit for foreign trade Facilitates hedging against currency shocks Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

6 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Provides credit for foreign trade Facilitates hedging against currency shocks Largest market in the world in terms of trade volume (over $6 trillion daily in spot, forward and swaps) Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

7 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Provides credit for foreign trade Facilitates hedging against currency shocks Largest market in the world in terms of trade volume (over $6 trillion daily in spot, forward and swaps) 24 hours trading and no trading limit Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

8 Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Provides credit for foreign trade Facilitates hedging against currency shocks Largest market in the world in terms of trade volume (over $6 trillion daily in spot, forward and swaps) 24 hours trading and no trading limit No commissions by brokers but bid-ask spread required by dealers Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

9 International Transactions Occur between individuals, firms, governments, international agencies. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

10 International Transactions Occur between individuals, firms, governments, international agencies. Trade : Turkish firm sells a good to a US firm. Either the US firm pays in TL by converting $ into TL or pays in $ and the Turkish firm converts it to TL. Trade practice of exporting Turkish firms: get paid in foreign currency if it is Euro or $ otherwise TL. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

11 International Transactions Occur between individuals, firms, governments, international agencies. Trade : Turkish firm sells a good to a US firm. Either the US firm pays in TL by converting $ into TL or pays in $ and the Turkish firm converts it to TL. Trade practice of exporting Turkish firms: get paid in foreign currency if it is Euro or $ otherwise TL. Foreign Direct Investment(FDI). Example : US definition: Foreign Direct Investment is defined as whenever a US citizen, organization, or affiliated group takes an interest of 10 percent or more in a foreign business entity. It includes setting up a business, buying an office block etc. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

12 International Transactions Portfolio Investments:This is an investment by individuals, firms or public bodies (ex. national and local governments) in foreign financial instruments. Foreign financial instruments include government bonds and foreign stock. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

13 International Transactions Portfolio Investments:This is an investment by individuals, firms or public bodies (ex. national and local governments) in foreign financial instruments. Foreign financial instruments include government bonds and foreign stock. The biggest difference between FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investment is that Foreign Portfolio Investment is not associated with a significant equity stake or in other words management privileges. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

14 International Transactions Portfolio Investments:This is an investment by individuals, firms or public bodies (ex. national and local governments) in foreign financial instruments. Foreign financial instruments include government bonds and foreign stock. The biggest difference between FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investment is that Foreign Portfolio Investment is not associated with a significant equity stake or in other words management privileges. Aid : Humanitarian, Goods and Services, Infrastructure Aid, Debt Relief, Education Aid Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

15 International Transactions Portfolio Investments:This is an investment by individuals, firms or public bodies (ex. national and local governments) in foreign financial instruments. Foreign financial instruments include government bonds and foreign stock. The biggest difference between FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investment is that Foreign Portfolio Investment is not associated with a significant equity stake or in other words management privileges. Aid : Humanitarian, Goods and Services, Infrastructure Aid, Debt Relief, Education Aid Remittances : Ex: Workers Remittances Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

16 International Transactions Portfolio Investments:This is an investment by individuals, firms or public bodies (ex. national and local governments) in foreign financial instruments. Foreign financial instruments include government bonds and foreign stock. The biggest difference between FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investment is that Foreign Portfolio Investment is not associated with a significant equity stake or in other words management privileges. Aid : Humanitarian, Goods and Services, Infrastructure Aid, Debt Relief, Education Aid Remittances : Ex: Workers Remittances Foreign in this context means foreign national or entity established in another country. Ex: Garanti Bank International is a foreign firm. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

17 Types of FX Rate Bilateral: Between two countries zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

18 Types of FX Rate Bilateral: Between two countries Effective or trade-weighted (Multilateral): Weighted by the proportion of each country s trade volume in total trade volume. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

19 Types of FX Rate Bilateral: Between two countries Effective or trade-weighted (Multilateral): Weighted by the proportion of each country s trade volume in total trade volume. Nominal FX Rates: Actual Rates zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

20 Types of FX Rate Bilateral: Between two countries Effective or trade-weighted (Multilateral): Weighted by the proportion of each country s trade volume in total trade volume. Nominal FX Rates: Actual Rates Real FX rates: Adjusted by price differentials in two countries zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

21 Types of FX Rate Bilateral: Between two countries Effective or trade-weighted (Multilateral): Weighted by the proportion of each country s trade volume in total trade volume. Nominal FX Rates: Actual Rates Real FX rates: Adjusted by price differentials in two countries Real Effective FX rates: Adjusted by price differentials in the set of trade partners. TCMB reports two types of Real Effective FX rate ( vs. Developed and vs. Developing Countries) zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

22 Types of FX Rate Real FX Rate is a sign of the degree of competitiveness. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

23 Types of FX Rate Real FX Rate is a sign of the degree of competitiveness. Spot vs. forward rates. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

24 Types of FX Rate Real FX Rate is a sign of the degree of competitiveness. Spot vs. forward rates. Buying vs. Selling ( Bid vs. Ask). Spread=Bid-Ask 0 Spread increases during weekends, holidays, turbulent times. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

25 Definitions: A bilateral spot exchange rate, S t, is domestic currency price of unit of foreign currency FX, so a rise in S (S ), is a fall in value of domestic currency. (Except for US and UK other than pound vs. dollar) Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

26 Definitions: A bilateral spot exchange rate, S t, is domestic currency price of unit of foreign currency FX, so a rise in S (S ), is a fall in value of domestic currency. (Except for US and UK other than pound vs. dollar) Cross exchange rate, St cross is bilateral exchange rate between two currencies other than Turkish Lira. e.g. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

27 Definitions: A bilateral spot exchange rate, S t, is domestic currency price of unit of foreign currency FX, so a rise in S (S ), is a fall in value of domestic currency. (Except for US and UK other than pound vs. dollar) Cross exchange rate, St cross is bilateral exchange rate between two currencies other than Turkish Lira. e.g. Cross exchange rate = ratio of two bilateral exchange rates against the TL, St cross = St e / S t $ Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

28 Definitions: A bilateral spot exchange rate, S t, is domestic currency price of unit of foreign currency FX, so a rise in S (S ), is a fall in value of domestic currency. (Except for US and UK other than pound vs. dollar) Cross exchange rate, St cross is bilateral exchange rate between two currencies other than Turkish Lira. e.g. Cross exchange rate = ratio of two bilateral exchange rates against the TL, St cross = St e / S t $ Let St B = Bid Rate and St A = Ask Rate. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

29 Definitions: A bilateral spot exchange rate, S t, is domestic currency price of unit of foreign currency FX, so a rise in S (S ), is a fall in value of domestic currency. (Except for US and UK other than pound vs. dollar) Cross exchange rate, St cross is bilateral exchange rate between two currencies other than Turkish Lira. e.g. Cross exchange rate = ratio of two bilateral exchange rates against the TL, St cross = St e / S t $ Let St B = Bid Rate and St A = Ask Rate. Suppose the buyer wants to buy $. Dealer asks St A asks 1/St A for 1TL. for 1 $ and Buyer Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

30 Definitions: A bilateral spot exchange rate, S t, is domestic currency price of unit of foreign currency FX, so a rise in S (S ), is a fall in value of domestic currency. (Except for US and UK other than pound vs. dollar) Cross exchange rate, St cross is bilateral exchange rate between two currencies other than Turkish Lira. e.g. Cross exchange rate = ratio of two bilateral exchange rates against the TL, St cross = St e / S t $ Let St B = Bid Rate and St A = Ask Rate. Suppose the buyer wants to buy $. Dealer asks St A asks 1/St A for 1TL. Suppose the buyer wants to buy TL. Dealer asks 1/St B Buyer asks St B for 1$. for 1 $ and Buyer for 1 TL and Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

31 Demand for FX Turkish establishments demand $ in exchange for TL in order to import from or invest in USA (and all other international transactions mentioned above) Total excess demand/supply eliminated instantaneously by exchange rate movement Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

32 Demand for FX Turkish establishments demand $ in exchange for TL in order to import from or invest in USA (and all other international transactions mentioned above) US establishments demand TL in exchange for $ in order to import from or invest in Turkey(and all other international transactions mentioned above) Total excess demand/supply eliminated instantaneously by exchange rate movement Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

33 Demand for FX Turkish establishments demand $ in exchange for TL in order to import from or invest in USA (and all other international transactions mentioned above) US establishments demand TL in exchange for $ in order to import from or invest in Turkey(and all other international transactions mentioned above) Speculators buy or sell TL (sell or buy $) Total excess demand/supply eliminated instantaneously by exchange rate movement Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

34 Equilibrium in FX Market: UK Example Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

35 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

36 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

37 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

38 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Suppose S $, there are two possibilities: zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

39 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Suppose S $, there are two possibilities: 1 International Value of TL has gone up or TL has appreciated. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

40 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Suppose S $, there are two possibilities: 1 International Value of TL has gone up or TL has appreciated. 2 US$ vs. TL has gone down.(or Lira gained value against $) zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

41 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Suppose S $, there are two possibilities: 1 International Value of TL has gone up or TL has appreciated. 2 US$ vs. TL has gone down.(or Lira gained value against $) Theorem zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

42 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Suppose S $, there are two possibilities: 1 International Value of TL has gone up or TL has appreciated. 2 US$ vs. TL has gone down.(or Lira gained value against $) Theorem If S $ while all other currencies in terms of TL remain the same 2 zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

43 Appreciation and Depreciation S : means depreciation S : means appreciation Exception: Real Effective Exchange Rates reported by TCMB Suppose S $, there are two possibilities: 1 International Value of TL has gone up or TL has appreciated. 2 US$ vs. TL has gone down.(or Lira gained value against $) Theorem If S $ while all other currencies in terms of TL remain the same 2 If S $ while all other currencies in terms of TL 1 zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

44 Balance of Payments (BOP) Definition All transactions between Turkey and the rest of the world(row) in a given year. It serves as flow of demand and supply for TL. It consists of 1 Current Account, Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

45 Balance of Payments (BOP) Definition All transactions between Turkey and the rest of the world(row) in a given year. It serves as flow of demand and supply for TL. It consists of 1 Current Account, 2 Capital and/or Financial Account Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

46 Balance of Payments (BOP) Definition All transactions between Turkey and the rest of the world(row) in a given year. It serves as flow of demand and supply for TL. It consists of 1 Current Account, 2 Capital and/or Financial Account 3 Balancing Item. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

47 BOP Items: Current Account Current account (CRA): Here and now. Export receipts (X) as credits, import payments (M) as debits, net = current account balance (goods, services including financial services, interest and dividends, rent, tourism) Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

48 BOP Items: Current Account Current account (CRA): Here and now. Export receipts (X) as credits, import payments (M) as debits, net = current account balance (goods, services including financial services, interest and dividends, rent, tourism) 1 Visibles (merchandise account): traded goods, processed goods, repairs on goods, gold, purchase of capital goods such as machinery, aircrafts Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

49 BOP Items: Current Account Current account (CRA): Here and now. Export receipts (X) as credits, import payments (M) as debits, net = current account balance (goods, services including financial services, interest and dividends, rent, tourism) 1 Visibles (merchandise account): traded goods, processed goods, repairs on goods, gold, purchase of capital goods such as machinery, aircrafts 2 Invisibles (service account): rights, licenses, insurance, tourism and other intangibles Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

50 BOP Items: Current Account Current account (CRA): Here and now. Export receipts (X) as credits, import payments (M) as debits, net = current account balance (goods, services including financial services, interest and dividends, rent, tourism) 1 Visibles (merchandise account): traded goods, processed goods, repairs on goods, gold, purchase of capital goods such as machinery, aircrafts 2 Invisibles (service account): rights, licenses, insurance, tourism and other intangibles 3 Interests, Profits and Dividends: rents from capital services, e.g. rental income, interest on deposit accounts, dividend payments on stocks, other profits transfers. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

51 BOP Items: Current Account Current account (CRA): Here and now. Export receipts (X) as credits, import payments (M) as debits, net = current account balance (goods, services including financial services, interest and dividends, rent, tourism) 1 Visibles (merchandise account): traded goods, processed goods, repairs on goods, gold, purchase of capital goods such as machinery, aircrafts 2 Invisibles (service account): rights, licenses, insurance, tourism and other intangibles 3 Interests, Profits and Dividends: rents from capital services, e.g. rental income, interest on deposit accounts, dividend payments on stocks, other profits transfers. 4 Transfers: worker s remittances, aid. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

52 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

53 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) 1 FDI : real estate, buying a Turkish company by foreigners or foreign company by Turkish residents, setting up a factory, purchase of machinery and factory in order to produce within that country. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

54 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) 1 FDI : real estate, buying a Turkish company by foreigners or foreign company by Turkish residents, setting up a factory, purchase of machinery and factory in order to produce within that country. 2 Portfolio Investment: equities, bonds, securities. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

55 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) 1 FDI : real estate, buying a Turkish company by foreigners or foreign company by Turkish residents, setting up a factory, purchase of machinery and factory in order to produce within that country. 2 Portfolio Investment: equities, bonds, securities. 3 Other investment: commercial credit lending by banks, nonbank institutions, individuals, IMF loans. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

56 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) 1 FDI : real estate, buying a Turkish company by foreigners or foreign company by Turkish residents, setting up a factory, purchase of machinery and factory in order to produce within that country. 2 Portfolio Investment: equities, bonds, securities. 3 Other investment: commercial credit lending by banks, nonbank institutions, individuals, IMF loans. 4 Change in Official Reserves: CB FX reserves zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

57 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) 1 FDI : real estate, buying a Turkish company by foreigners or foreign company by Turkish residents, setting up a factory, purchase of machinery and factory in order to produce within that country. 2 Portfolio Investment: equities, bonds, securities. 3 Other investment: commercial credit lending by banks, nonbank institutions, individuals, IMF loans. 4 Change in Official Reserves: CB FX reserves Balancing Item: Current Account+Capital Account=-Balancing Item zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

58 BOP Items: Capital Account Capital/financial account(cpa): net capital inflows = net purchases of TL by foreigners in order to acquire claims on Turkey residents less net sales of TL by Turkey residents in order to acquire claims on foreigners (Long term including securities equities, bonds, real estate etc + short term including bank deposits, short term securities) 1 FDI : real estate, buying a Turkish company by foreigners or foreign company by Turkish residents, setting up a factory, purchase of machinery and factory in order to produce within that country. 2 Portfolio Investment: equities, bonds, securities. 3 Other investment: commercial credit lending by banks, nonbank institutions, individuals, IMF loans. 4 Change in Official Reserves: CB FX reserves Balancing Item: Current Account+Capital Account=-Balancing Item visit for Turkish practice. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

59 BOP Items: Capital Account While the overall BOP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included, imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BOP, such as the current account, the capital account excluding the central bank s reserve account. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

60 BOP Items: Capital Account While the overall BOP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included, imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BOP, such as the current account, the capital account excluding the central bank s reserve account. BOP deficit refers to a situation when current account plus the capital account (except the reserves) is negative. In other words sources of funds ( all exports, bonds sold) is less than uses of funds (imports, bonds purchases) Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

61 BOP Items: Capital Account While the overall BOP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included, imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BOP, such as the current account, the capital account excluding the central bank s reserve account. BOP deficit refers to a situation when current account plus the capital account (except the reserves) is negative. In other words sources of funds ( all exports, bonds sold) is less than uses of funds (imports, bonds purchases) BOP Deficit = Current Account Deficit = Capital Account Deficit Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

62 BOP Items: Capital Account While the overall BOP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included, imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BOP, such as the current account, the capital account excluding the central bank s reserve account. BOP deficit refers to a situation when current account plus the capital account (except the reserves) is negative. In other words sources of funds ( all exports, bonds sold) is less than uses of funds (imports, bonds purchases) BOP Deficit = Current Account Deficit = Capital Account Deficit BOP imbalances are due to: the exchange rate, the government s fiscal deficit, business competitiveness, and private behaviour such as the willingness of consumers to go into debt to finance extra consumption. Ben Bernanke argues that the primary driver is the capital account, where a global savings glut caused by savers in surplus countries, runs ahead of the available investment opportunities, and is pushed into the US resulting in excess consumption and asset price inflation Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

63 BOP Items: Capital Account While the overall BOP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included, imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BOP, such as the current account, the capital account excluding the central bank s reserve account. BOP deficit refers to a situation when current account plus the capital account (except the reserves) is negative. In other words sources of funds ( all exports, bonds sold) is less than uses of funds (imports, bonds purchases) BOP Deficit = Current Account Deficit = Capital Account Deficit BOP imbalances are due to: the exchange rate, the government s fiscal deficit, business competitiveness, and private behaviour such as the willingness of consumers to go into debt to finance extra consumption. Ben Bernanke argues that the primary driver is the capital account, where a global savings glut caused by savers in surplus countries, runs ahead of the available investment opportunities, and is pushed into the US resulting in excess consumption and asset price inflation Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

64 Relationship Between BOP and FX rate regime Under pure float: Total net underlying demand for TL = CRA surplus+cpa surplus =Basic balance is equated to zero by exchange rate movement, unless zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

65 Relationship Between BOP and FX rate regime Under pure float: Total net underlying demand for TL = CRA surplus+cpa surplus =Basic balance is equated to zero by exchange rate movement, unless Under fixed rates: Government intervenes to fix exchange rate, in which case. Item for 4 in CPA : CB FX reserves= CRA+CPA to prevent basic balance causing exchange rate to move Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

66 Balance of Payments: Crisis and Balancing Mechanisms A BOP crisis (currency crisis) occurs when a nation is unable to service its debt repayments and/or to pay for essential imports. It generally is coupled with a fast depreciation of home currency. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

67 Balance of Payments: Crisis and Balancing Mechanisms A BOP crisis (currency crisis) occurs when a nation is unable to service its debt repayments and/or to pay for essential imports. It generally is coupled with a fast depreciation of home currency. General Mechanism: Large Capital Inflows over Time (either due to finance high economic growth, in this case to finance investment / or due to excessive consumption, in this case to finance consumption ( and lower savings)) unsustainable levels of debt creates a chain of events: investors pull out their funds by selling domestic currency denominated assets causing rapid depreciation of home currency Local banks and firms run in to sudden debt problems because their revenues are in local currency but their existing debt is in foreign currency the central bank can support the currency as long as it has enough FXreserves, but once reserves fall below a certain level chooses to increase interest rates to prevent outflows prevents currency depreciation and reduces the value of debt in domestic currency however, the domestic economy is depressed recession follows. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

68 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

69 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

70 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price 2 PPP Extensions zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

71 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price 2 PPP Extensions 1 Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

72 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price 2 PPP Extensions 1 Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson 2 Trade Costs(Iceberg) Model zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

73 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price 2 PPP Extensions 1 Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson 2 Trade Costs(Iceberg) Model 3 Incomplete Pass-Through zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

74 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price 2 PPP Extensions 1 Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson 2 Trade Costs(Iceberg) Model 3 Incomplete Pass-Through Uncovered Interest Rate Parity zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

75 Theories about Exchange Rate Determination Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1 Law of One Price 2 PPP Extensions 1 Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson 2 Trade Costs(Iceberg) Model 3 Incomplete Pass-Through Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Covered Interest Rate Parity zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

76 Law of One Price Definition The law of one price: Two goods, if they are identical, must sell for the same price. Domestic Economy Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

77 Law of One Price Definition The law of one price: Two goods, if they are identical, must sell for the same price. Domestic Economy The law of one price in the context of domestic economy the relationship holds if transaction costs are allowed: e.g., Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

78 Law of One Price Definition The law of one price: Two goods, if they are identical, must sell for the same price. Domestic Economy The law of one price in the context of domestic economy the relationship holds if transaction costs are allowed: e.g., P I = P A + C where P I, P A is the price of the same good in Istanbul and Ankara respectively and C is the transaction cost (transportation, local taxes, etc.). Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

79 Law of One Price Definition The law of one price: Two goods, if they are identical, must sell for the same price. Domestic Economy The law of one price in the context of domestic economy the relationship holds if transaction costs are allowed: e.g., P I = P A + C where P I, P A is the price of the same good in Istanbul and Ankara respectively and C is the transaction cost (transportation, local taxes, etc.). Open Economy P I = SP P + C where P I, P P is the price of the same good in Istanbul and Paris respectively and S is the TL/Euro exchange rate. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

80 PPP and Real Exchange Rate Definition The PPP relation is given by P i = SPi for i = 1,..., N where P i is the domestic price of good i and Pi is the foreign price of good i and S is the exchange rate or P = SP where P is domestic price index and P is the foreign price index Definition The real exchange rate, Q, between two countries is given by Q = SP P. Corollary If PPP holds then Q = 1. Example: When PPP adjusted India s GDP is 3,608 billion dollars as opposed to 1,704 billion dollars calculated with nominal exchange rates. Denmark GDP per head: PPP adjusted: $37,500 vs. Nominal Exch Rate: $62,100 Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

81 PPP and Inflation Theorem If PPP holds then the rate of home currency depreciation rate is equal to difference between home and foreign inflation rates. Proof. Taking logarithms and derivatives of both sides of P = SP log(p) = log(s) + log(p ) dp/p = ds/s + dp /P ds/s = dp/p dp }{{}}{{} /P }{{} depreciation = inflation inflation In reality PPP fails most of the time. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

82 PPP and Transaction Costs Let K be a constant that represents the total costs of conducting international trade including tariffs, etc. P = KSP log(p) = log(k ) + log(s) + log(p ) Theorem If trade costs are constant, then they do not affect the currency depreciation rate Proof. Taking the derivative above yields ds/s }{{} = dp/p }{{} dp /P }{{} dk /K }{{} depreciation = inflation inflation change in trade costs but dk = 0 Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

83 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect Definition The observation that consumer price levels in wealthier countries are systematically higher than in poorer ones (the Penn effect ). Definition An economic model predicting the above, based on the assumption that productivity or productivity growth-rates vary more by country in the traded goods sectors than in other sectors (the Balassa Samuelson hypothesis) Workers in some countries have higher productivity than in others. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

84 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect Definition The observation that consumer price levels in wealthier countries are systematically higher than in poorer ones (the Penn effect ). Definition An economic model predicting the above, based on the assumption that productivity or productivity growth-rates vary more by country in the traded goods sectors than in other sectors (the Balassa Samuelson hypothesis) Workers in some countries have higher productivity than in others. Certain labour-intensive jobs such as those in services are less responsive to productivity innovations than others. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

85 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect Definition The observation that consumer price levels in wealthier countries are systematically higher than in poorer ones (the Penn effect ). Definition An economic model predicting the above, based on the assumption that productivity or productivity growth-rates vary more by country in the traded goods sectors than in other sectors (the Balassa Samuelson hypothesis) Workers in some countries have higher productivity than in others. Certain labour-intensive jobs such as those in services are less responsive to productivity innovations than others. Some of the fixed-productivity sectors are also the ones producing non-transportable goods (for instance haircuts) - this must be the case or the labour intensive work would have been off-shored. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

86 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect(cont d) To equalize local wage levels with the (highly productive) Zurich engineers, McDonalds Zurich employees must be paid more than McDonalds Moscow employees, even though the burger production rate per employee is an international constant. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

87 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect(cont d) To equalize local wage levels with the (highly productive) Zurich engineers, McDonalds Zurich employees must be paid more than McDonalds Moscow employees, even though the burger production rate per employee is an international constant. The CPI is made up of: zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

88 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect(cont d) To equalize local wage levels with the (highly productive) Zurich engineers, McDonalds Zurich employees must be paid more than McDonalds Moscow employees, even though the burger production rate per employee is an international constant. The CPI is made up of: local goods/services (which are expensive relative to tradables in rich countries) zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

89 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect(cont d) To equalize local wage levels with the (highly productive) Zurich engineers, McDonalds Zurich employees must be paid more than McDonalds Moscow employees, even though the burger production rate per employee is an international constant. The CPI is made up of: local goods/services (which are expensive relative to tradables in rich countries) Tradables, which have the same price everywhere zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

90 Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson Effect(cont d) To equalize local wage levels with the (highly productive) Zurich engineers, McDonalds Zurich employees must be paid more than McDonalds Moscow employees, even though the burger production rate per employee is an international constant. The CPI is made up of: local goods/services (which are expensive relative to tradables in rich countries) Tradables, which have the same price everywhere The (real) exchange rate is pegged (by the law of one price) so that tradable goods follow PPP (purchasing power parity) but not local goods.. PPP holds only for tradable goods. Entirely tradable goods cannot vary greatly in price by location (because buyers can source from the lowest cost location). But most services must be delivered locally (e.g. hairdressing) which makes PPP-deviations sustainable. The Penn effect is that PPP-deviations usually occur in the same direction: where incomes are high, average price levels are typically high. zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

91 PPP Extensions- Arbitrage in goods. Goods arbitrage only profitable when price deviation exceeds transactions costs, C, so: Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

92 PPP Extensions- Arbitrage in goods. Goods arbitrage only profitable when price deviation exceeds transactions costs, C, so: If price deviation P P < C, no trade Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

93 PPP Extensions- Arbitrage in goods. Goods arbitrage only profitable when price deviation exceeds transactions costs, C, so: If price deviation P P < C, no trade If price deviation P P > C, trade. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

94 PPP Extensions- Arbitrage in goods. Goods arbitrage only profitable when price deviation exceeds transactions costs, C, so: If price deviation P P < C, no trade If price deviation P P > C, trade. But C different for each trader and each type of good Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

95 PPP Extensions- Arbitrage in goods. Goods arbitrage only profitable when price deviation exceeds transactions costs, C, so: If price deviation P P < C, no trade If price deviation P P > C, trade. But C different for each trader and each type of good When price deviation large (small), arbitrage (not) profitable for most traders/goods Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

96 PPP Extensions- Arbitrage in goods. Goods arbitrage only profitable when price deviation exceeds transactions costs, C, so: If price deviation P P < C, no trade If price deviation P P > C, trade. But C different for each trader and each type of good When price deviation large (small), arbitrage (not) profitable for most traders/goods In general, larger the price deviation, greater volume of arbitrage and more rapid is real exchange rate adjustment Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

97 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

98 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France P C : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in Turkey zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

99 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France P C : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in Turkey τ: proportion of every unit of goods lost due to shipping cost ( melting iceberg ) zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

100 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France P C : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in Turkey τ: proportion of every unit of goods lost due to shipping cost ( melting iceberg ) similarly zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

101 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France P C : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in Turkey τ: proportion of every unit of goods lost due to shipping cost ( melting iceberg ) similarly P H = (1 τ) SP H zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

102 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France P C : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in Turkey τ: proportion of every unit of goods lost due to shipping cost ( melting iceberg ) similarly P H = (1 τ) SP H P H :price of hazelnut(produced in Turkey)in France zan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

103 Iceberg Model Does the importer or the exporter pay the shipping cost? where P C = SP C 1 τ PC : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in France P C : price of Brie cheese (produced in France) in Turkey τ: proportion of every unit of goods lost due to shipping cost ( melting iceberg ) similarly P H P H = (1 τ) SPH :price of hazelnut(produced in Turkey)in France P H : price of hazelnut(produced in Turkey) in Turkey. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

104 Trade Costs and Iceberg Model(cont d) and Incomplete Pass-Through Combining the above P H P C = (1 τ) 2 P H P C Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

105 Trade Costs and Iceberg Model(cont d) and Incomplete Pass-Through Combining the above P H P C = (1 τ) 2 P H P C Result: Hazelnuts (Brie) are (1 τ) 2 % expensive relative to Brie(Hazelnuts) in Turkey(France). Price distortions multiply Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

106 Trade Costs and Iceberg Model(cont d) and Incomplete Pass-Through Combining the above P H P C = (1 τ) 2 P H P C Result: Hazelnuts (Brie) are (1 τ) 2 % expensive relative to Brie(Hazelnuts) in Turkey(France). Price distortions multiply Incomplete Pass Through: Exporters and/or importers do not reflect changing costs to prices. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

107 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity(UIRP) Assume investors are risk neutral, i.e. they are indifferent between a safe bet and a lottery that offer the same expected return. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

108 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity(UIRP) Assume investors are risk neutral, i.e. they are indifferent between a safe bet and a lottery that offer the same expected return. Let r be the domestic interest rate of a financial instrument with N periods to maturity. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

109 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity(UIRP) Assume investors are risk neutral, i.e. they are indifferent between a safe bet and a lottery that offer the same expected return. Let r be the domestic interest rate of a financial instrument with N periods to maturity. Let r be the foreign interest rate of the same financial instrument with N periods to maturity. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93

110 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity(UIRP) Assume investors are risk neutral, i.e. they are indifferent between a safe bet and a lottery that offer the same expected return. Let r be the domestic interest rate of a financial instrument with N periods to maturity. Let r be the foreign interest rate of the same financial instrument with N periods to maturity. Definition In the absence of hedging opportunities, the relationship between domestic and foreign interest rates are given by (1 + r) = E t(s t+n ) S t (1 + r ) where E t (S t+n ) is the expected spot exchange rate at t + N as of time t. Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring / 93