SA Gold: outlook for

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1 SA : outlook for 218 Deutsche Bank Markets Research SubSaharan Africa South Africa Date Industry SA : outlook for November 217 Industry Update Recovery in cash flows into 218 Patrick Mann, Upgrade Anglo, Fields to Buy, Harmony to Hold on higher Rand We update our Rand forecasts in this note by an average of 13% over 218E23E by changing our inputs to a blended 3 and 9day trailing average. For 218E we use R.22/USD. This leads to an average 27% increase in our Randbased price targets and we upgrade Anglo and Fields to Buy recommendations; and Harmony is upgraded from a Sell to a Hold. We forecast the gold sector to see a recovery in free cash flow in 218E from a depressed level in 217E, driven by both improved margins and reduced project capex (217 was a particularly capexheavy year). Harmony is slightly behind the curve in this regard, with the US$3m acquisition of Moab Khotsong still pending. We forecast SibanyeStillwater to deleverage to below 1x net debt to EBITDA (from current c.2.3x) by the end of 219E on both higher EBITDA from Stillwater and cash generated; however, we have them on a Hold recommendation (R2ps PT) as we do not forecast the palladium price staying above platinum over the longer term. At spot we derive a R3ps PT for SibanyeStillwater and palladium bulls may well be attracted to this deleveraging story as the Blitz project ramps up at Stillwater in the US. Key events to watch for in 218 include progress on projects like Kibali, Obuasi, Salares Norte, Stillwater Blitz, Hidden Valley and Gruyere; while Harmony has guided that it will seek US$2m of equity funding to complete the acquisition of Moab Khotsong. Research Analyst Key Changes Company Target Price Rating ANGJ.J 13. to 17. Hold to Buy GFIJ.J 2. to 6. Hold to Buy SGLJ.J. to 2. HARJ.J 21. to 2. Sell to Hold Source: Deutsche Bank Top picks Anglo Ashanti (ANGJ.J),ZAR.94 Buy Fields (GFIJ.J),ZAR7.79 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Companies featured Anglo Ashanti (ANGJ.J),ZAR.94 Fields (GFIJ.J),ZAR7.79 Buy Buy SibanyeStillwater (SGLJ.J),ZAR18.94 Hold Harmony (HARJ.J),ZAR24.13 Hold Source: Deutsche Bank Upgrade to Buy: Anglo R17ps PT R13ps and Fields R6ps PT R2 We forecast both companies returning to positive free cash flow in 218E. Positive catalysts in 218 come from increased production at relatively highmargin Tropicana and Kibali; C&M/disposals of lossmaking SA mines and weaker production cost currencies (Rand and Real). We see Fields returning to positive free cash flow as project capex reduces in 218E and view the company as providing an attractive combination of increasing production and declining capex in the short to medium term. Upgrade Harmony to a Hold recommendation, R2ps PT R21 Harmony's current cash flow generation is moderated by the companyguided likelihood of a US$2m equity raise to fund the acquisition of Moab Khotsong from Anglo, as well as the likely capex requirements on a life extension project at the acquired mine. Distributed on: 29/11/217 3:9:9 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 83/4/217. bed7b6cf11c

2 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Weaker Rand input incorporated, gold unchanged We have changed the ZAR/USD exchange rate used in our models. We now use an average of the 3 and 9day trailing average to smooth volatility but still give more weight to the current exchange rate. We then depreciate the Rand against the USD at our longterm inflation differential of 4% p.a. For 218E, we are using a Rand of R.22/USD. In light of the volatile and uncertain political and economic enviroent, we believe it more likely that the market overall will price the shares at spot Rand owing to the high forecast risk on the exchange rate. Figure 1: Rand gold price forecast change 1,, 9, (ZAR) Rand price (Rand/kilogram) 8, 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2A Spot 217e 218e 219e 22e 221e 222e 223e 224e 22e 226e Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Our average Rand price has increase by 13% over the period 218E26E as a result of the same change in our forecast Rand profile. Figure 2: Average increase in Rand forecast price of 13% 218E26E Deutsche Banks revised and ZAR/USD price forecasts 2A Spot Rand ZAR % change (US$) 1,249 1,287 % change (ZAR) ZAR/kg 86,7 73,832 % change 217e % 1,26 1,22.6% 41,873 21, % 218e % 1,24 1,24.% 66, ,43.2% 219e % 1,266 1,266.% 61, , % 22e % 1,3 1,3.% 64,188 4,3 18.3% 221e % 1,344 1,344.% 69, , % 222e % 1,383 1,383.% 739, ,982 1.% 223e % 1,421 1,421.% 79,47 78, % 224e % 1,43 1,443.6% 829, , % 22e % 1,46 1,464.6% 87, ,441.3% 226e % 1,478 1,486.6% 924, ,386.% Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, DataStream Page 2

3 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Valuation and trading metrics As a result of a 13% higher average Rand input into our models, we have an average increase in our price targets of 27%. We further upgrade Anglo and Fields to Buy recommendations, from Hold recommendations previously, and upgrade Harmony from a Sell recommendation to a Hold on higher NPV derived price targets. Figure 3: Summary changes to recommendations and price targets Company Anglo Fields Harmony Sibanye Recommendation Current Buy Hold Buy Hold Hold Sell Hold Hold Target price Current % 2% 19% 29% Current price Price vs Target 23% 12% % 3% Year end Dec Dec June Dec Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Figure 4: Trading multiples under DB forecast price and currency DB forecasts Price Company Reporting Ccy (ZAR) Anglo USD 3 Fields USD 8 Harmony ZAR 2 Sibanye ZAR 19 Simple average NPV P/ Rec. (ZAR) NPV Buy Buy 6.9 Hold 2 1. Hold P/E ratio (x) FY17e n/a EV/EBITDA FY17e Dividend yield (%) FY17e.6%.%.4%.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% 3.2% 1.6% 3.1%.%.%.7% 1.8% 1% 1% 3% Free Cash Flow Yield (%) FY17e 4.7%.7% 3.8%.7% 8.% 4.9%.9% 9.%.4% 2.% 6.% 1.2% 2.8% 2.% 13.%.9% 7.8% 3% 3% 8% Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Figure : Trading multiples under spot prices and currency Spot prices Price Company Reporting Ccy (ZAR) Anglo USD 3 Fields USD 8 Harmony ZAR 2 Sibanye ZAR 19 Simple average NPV P/ Rec. (ZAR) NPV Buy 9.8 Buy Hold 29.9 Hold P/E ratio (x) FY17e n/a EV/EBITDA FY17e Dividend yield (%) FY17e.6%.%.7%.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% 3.6% 3.6% 3.1%.%.% 7.2% 1.8% 1% 2% 4% Free Cash Flow Yield (%) FY17e 4.7%.6% 7.1% 8.7% 8.% 4.8% 2.8% 1.4%.4% 2.% 3.% 7.% 2.8% 1.9%.2% 2.4% 7.8% 3% % 12% Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page 3

4 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Figure 6: EV/sales linked to margin and sales growth EV/Sales multiple Fields, Sibanye, 1.4 Anglo, Harmony, % 1.% 2.% 3.% EBITDA margin 4.%.% 6.% Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Figure 7: EV/oz in reserve vs. EBITDA margin 2, Rand/oz in Reserve 2, Fields, 1,38 Anglo, 1,774 1, 1, Sibanye, 812 Harmony, 339.% 1.% 2.% 3.% 4.%.% 6.% EBITDA margin (218E) Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 4

5 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Figure 8: EV/EBITDA multiple Sibanye's unwinds quickly with Blitz rampup EV/EBITDA multiple A Sibanye 217E Anglo Fields 22 Harmony Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Figure 9: Free cash flow yields bouncing back, Harmony lagging the bunch 3% 2% Free cash flow yield 2% % 1% % % 2A 217E % 1% Sibanye Anglo Fields Harmony Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page

6 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Harmony, Hold, R2ps PT Figure 1: Harmony, summary model, DBe price and currency Inputs Randdollar exchange rate, average R/USD price USD/oz R/kg FY Annual 6/3/ , ,84 Annual 6/3/ ,224 4,81 Annual 6/3/2.44 1,8 42,34 FY17 Annual 6/3/ ,28 49,63 Annual 6/3/ ,27 7,41 Annual 6/3/ ,248 78,982 FY2e Annual 6/3/22.1 1,286 62,24 FY21e Annual 6/3/ , ,29 FY 33.2,44 1,31, ,864 2,332 12, ,46 1,83 13, FY , , ,81 1,64 12, ,81 3,61, FY2e ,81 4,42, FY21e ,81 3,8, FY % 2.6% n/a % 7.2% FY % 1.2% FY2e % 3.6% FY21e % 1.2% FY FY17 FY2e FY21e 1,82 33,6 1, ,34 392,26 467,26 1,88 33,836 1, ,63 436,917,687 1,136 3,32 1, ,41 433,662 2,139 1,22 47,341 1, ,982 47,3 4,613 1,23 47,362 1, ,24 486,12 29,494 1,433 44,83 1, ,29 1,27 8,62 Valuation metrics DBe June year end Share price (historical average)r/share Market cap Net debt/(cash) Enterprise Value (historical aver # of shares mns DBe NPV P/NPV DBe Trading metrics, DBe PE EV/Sales EV/EBITDA DY FCF Yield Summary forecasts, June year end, DBe Production gold price USDZAR price Cash costs Allin sustaining costs Revenue sales at spot Hedging gain Operating costs South Africa Hidden Valley Amort & depn Other Gross Profit GP margin FX gain/loss Other Operating profit/loss EBIT margin Net finance costs and other Profit/loss before tax Tax Net profit/loss Recon to headline earnings Headline earnings Headline earnings margin HEPS EBITDA Ebitda margin 1, %.4% % 2.% % 6.% koz kg $/oz R/$ R/kg R/kg R/kg 1, ,84 328, ,433 1,77 33,13 1, ,81 369,23 43,44,682,43 18,334 19,264 2,696 19,69 1,1 27,7 27, ,377 29,377 29,627 29,627 12,633 11,49 1 1,3 13,249 12, ,212,812 13, ,313,319, ,19 21,649 18, ,48 23,24 19,86 2 3,217 22,739 19, ,396 (2,3) (2,7) (46) 3% (2,472) (3,949) (3,618) 23% (1,) (1,61) 1% 12 (1,49) 279 (1,27) (1,7) (,193) 34% (47) (,24) 74 (4,36) (2,17) (366) 2,48 % (192) (764) 1,92 9% (11) 1,81 (632) 949 (2,19) (2,38) (37) 2% 1,219 (1,838) (994) % 846 (8) (2,6) (269) 2,3 12% 248 (876) 1,87 9% (17) 1,88 (2) 1,338 (3,681) (38) 1,994 7% (1,28) 786 3% (247) 63 (3,9) (44) 2,34 7% (1,283) 71 3% (278) 473 (133) 341 (3,867) (399) 2,623 9% (1,277) 1,346 % (313) 1,33 (289) 743 1, % 3,7 (821) % 964 % 944 1,36 7% 1,338 6% % 341 1% % 17 2, % 1,241 8.% 3, % 3, % 4, % 4,467.1% 4,667.9%, % SAcps % Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 6

7 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Harmony, summary model spot price and currency Figure 11: Harmony summary model, spot prices and currency Inputs Randdollar exchange rate, average R/USD price USD/oz R/kg FY Annual 6/3/ , ,84 Annual 6/3/ ,224 4,81 Annual 6/3/2.44 1,8 42,34 FY17 Annual 6/3/ ,28 49,63 Annual 6/3/ ,288 68,729 Annual 6/3/ ,38 92,967 FY2e Annual 6/3/ ,328 61,889 FY21e Annual 6/3/ , ,33 FY 33.2,44 1,31, ,864 2,332 12, ,46 1,83 13, FY , , ,81 1,286 12, ,81 2,73 13,4 437 FY2e ,81 3,421, FY21e ,81 3,843, FY % 2.6% n/a % 7.2% FY % 3.9% FY2e % 4.8% FY21e n/a % 4.7% FY FY17 FY2e FY21e 1,82 33,6 1, ,34 392,26 467,26 1,88 33,836 1, ,63 436,917,687 1,136 3,32 1, , ,339 2,3 1,22 47,341 1, ,967 44,743,12 1,23 47,362 1, , ,62 28,1 1,433 44,83 1, ,33 1,8,983 Valuation metrics Spot June year end Share price (historical average)r/share Market cap Net debt/(cash) Enterprise Value (historical aver # of shares mns Spot NPV P/NPV Spot Trading metrics, Spot PE EV/Sales EV/EBITDA DY FCF Yield Summary forecasts, June year end, Spot Production gold price USDZAR price Cash costs Allin sustaining costs Revenue sales at spot Hedging gain Operating costs South Africa Hidden Valley Amort & depn Other Gross Profit GP margin FX gain/loss Other Operating profit/loss EBIT margin Net finance costs and other Profit/loss before tax Tax Net profit/loss Recon to headline earnings Headline earnings Headline earnings margin HEPS EBITDA Ebitda margin 1, %.4% % 2.% % 3.7% koz kg $/oz R/$ R/kg R/kg R/kg 1, ,84 328, ,433 1,77 33,13 1, ,81 369,23 43,44,682,43 18,334 19,264 21, 2, ,32 28, ,933 28,933 28,9 28,9 12,633 11,49 1 1,3 13,249 12, ,212,812 13, ,313,38, ,183 21,28 18,13 2 3, 22,7 19, , 22,34 19, 22 3,2 (2,3) (2,7) (46) 3% (2,472) (3,949) (3,618) 23% (1,) (1,61) 1% 12 (1,49) 279 (1,27) (1,7) (,193) 34% (47) (,24) 74 (4,36) (2,17) (366) 2,48 % (192) (764) 1,92 9% (11) 1,81 (632) 949 (2,19) (2,38) (37) 2% 1,219 (1,838) (994) % 846 (8) (2,63) (269) 2,837 13% 27 (881) 2,23 11% (17) 2,213 (62) 1,94 (3,661) (378) 2,73 1% (1,21) 1,43 % 131 1,674 (469) 1,2 (3,863) (399) 1,97 7% (1,262) 69 2% (18) 1 (3) 367 (3,799) (393) 1,28 % (1,236) 291 1% (237) 4 () 39 1, % 3,7 (821) % 964 % 944 1,36 7% 1,94 8% 364 1,2 4% % % 9 2, % 1,241 8.% 3, % 3, % 4, %,24 18.% 4,8.9% 4,9.6% SAcps % Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 7

8 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Harmony summary operational forecasts Figure 12: Harmony operational summary data HARMONY OPERATIONAL SUMMARY DATA ASSUMPTIONS ZARUSD () Copper (Usc/lb) PRODUCTION, oz Moab Khotsong Tshepong Phakisa Bambanani Joel Doornkop Target 1 Kusasalethu Masimong Unisel Phoenix Central plant reclamation Dumps Kalgold Hidden Valley TOTAL JUNE YEAR END , ,8 222 FY , , , FY2e.1 1, FY21e.61 1, FY17 FY2e FY21e ,77,466 1,82,3 1,87,82 1,13,722 1,22, 1,22,763 1,433,422 NPV Moab Khotsong Tshepong Bambanani Joel Doornkop Target 1 Target 1 Kusasalethu Masimong Unisel Phoenix Dumps Kalgold Hidden Valley Net (Debt)/Cash Value of hedges Equity Value ZA 7,292 1,69 8 1, (2,39) (1,92) (887) 1,4 9,944 Target Price Number of Shares (m) WACC ZAR/sh (.) (2.) (2.) (%).% 41.4% 6.1% 4.8% 1.% 1.% 1.% 13.6%.8%.6% 3.9% 2.% 3.6% 6.2% 1.% % Graph 1: Production profile 2 FY2e FY21e Moab Khotsong Tshepong Phakisa Bambanani Joel Doornkop Target 1 Kusasalethu Masimong Unisel Phoenix Dumps Kalgold Hidden Valley 1,8 1, , ,283 1,8 1, ,41 1,26 1, , ,66 1, ,47 1,2 1,1 1, 1, ,7 1, , ,33 1,4 1, ,1 1, ,3 1,37 1,9 1, ,63 1,9 1, ,19 1,394 1,134 1, ,79 1,73 1, ,34 1,432 1,181 1, ,93 1,9 1, WEIGHTED AVERAGE 1,3 1, CAPEX, ZA FY17 FY2e FY21e Moab Khotsong Tshepong Phakisa Bambanani Joel Doornkop Target 1 Kusasalethu Masimong Unisel Phoenix Dumps Kalgold Hidden Valley ,33 1, , ,47 2,1 3,686 4,388 3,6 3,79 3,621 TOTAL 1 1 Production (koz) FY FY17 FY2e FY21e Graph 2: Capex profile ) Rand thousands (R' FY17 FY2e FY21e Graph 3: Cash cost profile 1, 1,4 Cash costs () CASH COSTS, $/oz 1,3 1,2 1, 1, FY17 FY2e FY21e Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 8

9 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Harmony: Changes to estimates Figure 13: Summary changes to estimates, FY18E2E Year end June Production Rand gold price Cash operating cost Allin sustaining costs Allin sustaining costs Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Headline Earnings Margin HEPS Capex Free cash flow Net debt/(cash) koz R/kg R/kg R/kg Rc 1,136 1,134 % 7,41 9,29 1% 434,361 44,786 1% 2, ,1 6% 1,184 1,222 3% 2,888 19,486 7% 4,686 3,46 32% 22% 18% 1, % 7% % 4,388 4,388 % (381) (1,678) 77% 1,64 2,937 44% 1,22 1,39 1% 78, ,461 18% 47,3 423,43 8% 4, ,48 8% 1,88 1,186 8% 27,694 24,1 % 4,46 2,417 84% % 1% 627 (763) 182% 2% 3 (174) 182% 3,6 2,717 34% (4,497) (4,826) 7% 3,61,449 34% FY2e 1,23 1,43 1% 62,24 21,96 19% 486,12 444,98 9% 29, ,3 11% 1,97 1,182 7% 29,29 24,928 17% 4,79 2,6 123% % 8% 278 (1,44) 119% 1% 63 (332) 119% 3,79 2,487 2% (31) (1,298) 76% 4,42 6,748 4% Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page 9

10 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Harmony Investment Thesis Outlook We rate Harmony a Hold on valuation. Harmony is generating meaningful earnings and cash flows from its randgold hedges, which come to an end in H2' CY18. These cash flows will assist Harmony in funding the remainder of the project capex on Hidden Valley cutback (scheduled to achieve commercial production levels in mid H1 CY18). While the 218 outlook for cash generation from nonhedged SA production is favourable yearonyear owing to a higher Rand price, approximately onethird of Harmony's current 1.1Mozpa production base has a life of mine of 4years, which weighs on an NPV based valuation. Harmony has purchased Moab Khotsong from Anglo for US $3m and has guided that it will seek equity funding for US$2m to fund the transaction (expected to close in 1H CY18 per management). Moab Khotsong will have a meaningful impact on Harmony's annual production (c2kozpa/2%). However, only onethird of the Moab reserve is above infrastructure and we view it as likely that Harmony will invest a significant amount in a subvertical shaft to extend the life of mine of Moab Khotsong. We also view stage 1 of the Golpu project as having a muted impact on valuation. With Harmony trading at close to our estimate of fair value and our balanced view on upside/downside risks, we have a Hold recommendation. Valuation We value Harmony based on a sumoftheparts DCF model of individual operations and projects, and a nominal WACC of 11.1%. We apply a 1x multiple to our DCFderived net asset value for the company. For CY18 we use a gold price forecast of US$1,24/ounce and a ZAR/USD forecast of.22 (Rand price of c.r67,/kg). We derive our oneyear forward target price by rolling our DCF forward at the cost of equity (11.7%) less the expected dividend yield. Risk Risks include higher Rand prices, betterthanexpected grades also pose a risk to the upside for production and unit costs (lower unit costs). A favourable outcome of the Moab Khotsong/Zaaiplaats PFS and FS is a further risk. The potential for M&A poses a risk to valuation. Improving labour relations and improved/lower impact of safetyrelated stoppages in South Africa pose an upside risk to production forecasts while in PNG better than expected progress at the Golpu project poses and upside risk to forecasts. Page 1

11 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 SibanyeStillwater, Hold, PT R2ps 218 should be the year in which SibanyeStillwater begins to delever, in our view. Critical to this delever will be the recovery of margins in the South African gold business after a challenging 217 and the restructuring of Cooke, as well as the beginning of the delivery of the Blitz project at SibanyeStillwater. Given the high amount of leverage/net debt; SibanyeStillwater has to deliver production growth and margin expansion at the Stillwater mine. We also expect the acquisition of 38% of DRD to complete by 2Q 18, in line with management's estimates. Upon closing, SibanyeStillwater has an option to acquire more shares to take it to % plus 1. It will be a further c.24 months before the testing will be complete for the assessment of the next phase, a central processing plant and regional tailings facility with an envisaged 1Mtpa throughput. Figure : Net debt to EBITDA under both DBe and spot prices 2. Figure : Nominal value of net debt under DBe and spot prices and currencies 2, , ,43 2. Rand million () 2, Net debt to EBITDA (DBe) Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT ,668 1, 22 Net debt to EBITDA, spot 8,327 6,227 3,33 2,67 1, ,924,, , Net debt at DBe Net debt at spot Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 11

12 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 SibanyeStillwater summary model DBe prices and currencies Figure : SibanyeStillwater summary model using DBe prices and currencies SibanyeStillwater (December y/e) Share price Shares Market cap Net debt/(cash) Enterprise Value reserves SA PGM reserves USA PGM reserves equivalent reserves Production gold Production SA PGMs Production Stillwater PGMs equivalent production Rps mns FYA ,427 2,67 22,34 A ,493 1,278 21,771 A 47 1,419 66,948 6,227 73,17 1H17A 18 1,48 26,64 22,93 48,67 FY17E 19 2,9 42,1 22,466 64,67 FY18E 19 2,9 42,1 17,781 9,881 FY19E 19 2,9 42,1 1,668 2,768 FY2E 19 2,9 42,1 3,33 4, ,419 1, , ,222 1, , ,222 1, , ,261 1, ,794 Moz Au Moz 4E PGMs Moz 2E PGMs Au eq Moz Au 4E koz 2E koz Au eq koz ,89 1, ,36 1, , , ,188 R/Au eq oz R/Au eq oz 77 13,863 73,174 1,6 4, ,474 1,4 23, , ,38 83, % % % 2.3 n/a.8 1.9% 1.4 n/a 7. 2.% % % % 1. 21,781 7,469 34% 4,2 19% 1,2 1, ,717 6,48 29% 2,848 13% ,241 1,32 34% 6,49 21% 3,72 2, ,7 3,233 9% 3,778 11% (1,43) (89) () 1, , (129) ,47 9,2 2% 3,732 8% (4,42) (1,83) (99) (9),97 (7) 4,337,743 29% 9,78 18% 4,783 4, , ,287,886 28% 1,48 18%,773, , ,368 2,779 31% 13,984 21% 8,68 8, , Operating cash flows Capital expenditure Free cash flow,8 (3,21) 1,87 4,174 (3,34) 829 6,17 (4,1) 1,866 4,373 (4,874) (1),3 (6,1) (81) 11,677 (6,),663 12,79 (,682) 7,1,24 (,93) 1,292 Net debt/(cash) Net debt to EBITDA 2,67.2 1, , , , , , ,33.2 EV/ gold equiv reserve ounce EV/ gold equiv prodn ounce p.a. Trading/Valuation metrics PE EV/EBITDA FCFyield EV/revenue Revenue EBITDA margin EBIT margin Basic earnings Headline earnings HEPS FactSet Consensus Nov 217 Normalised earnings NEPS SAcps Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 12

13 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 SibanyeStillwater summary model spot prices and currencies Figure 17: SibanyeStillwater summary model under spot prices and currency SibanyeStillwater (December y/e) Share price Shares Market cap Net debt/(cash) Enterprise Value reserves SA PGM reserves USA PGM reserves equivalent reserves Production gold Production SA PGMs Production Stillwater PGMs equivalent production Rps mns FYA ,427 2,67 22,34 A ,493 1,278 21,771 A 47 1,419 66,948 6,227 73,17 1H17A 18 1,48 26,64 22,93 48,67 FY17E 19 2,9 42,1 22,43 64,3 FY18E 19 2,9 42,1,924 9,24 FY19E 19 2,9 42,1 8,327,428 FY2E 19 2,9 42, , ,419 1, , ,222 1, , ,222 1, , ,261 1, ,771 Moz Au Moz 4E PGMs Moz 2E PGMs Au eq Moz Au 4E koz 2E koz Au eq koz ,89 1, ,36 1, , , ,188 R/Au eq oz R/Au eq oz 77 13,863 73,174 1,6 4, ,474 1,8 23, , ,779 7, % % % 2.3 n/a.8 1.9% 1.4 n/a % % % %.9 21,781 7,469 34% 4,2 19% 1,2 1, ,717 6,48 29% 2,848 13% ,241 1,32 34% 6,49 21% 3,72 2, ,7 3,233 9% 3,778 11% (1,43) (89) () 1, , (83) ,496 9,272 2% 3,8 8% (4,379) (1,77) (96) (9) 6,64 (),431,86 3% 1,789 19%,464, , ,713 18,947 31% 12,484 2% 7,196 7, , ,12 22,18 33%,3 23% 9,779 9, ,938 Operating cash flows Capital expenditure Free cash flow,8 (3,21) 1,87 4,174 (3,34) 829 6,17 (4,1) 1,866 4,373 (4,874) (1),34 (6,) (8) 12,41 (6,44) 6,47,37 (,711) 8,96 17,374 (,98) 11,394 Net debt/(cash) Net debt to EBITDA 2,67.2 1, , , ,43 2.3, , EV/ gold equiv reserve ounce EV/ gold equiv prodn ounce p.a. Trading/Valuation metrics PE EV/EBITDA FCFyield EV/revenue Revenue EBITDA margin EBIT margin Basic earnings Headline earnings HEPS FactSet Consensus Nov 217 Normalised earnings NEPS SAcps Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 13

14 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 SibanyeStillwater summary operational forecasts Figure 18: SibanyeStillwater operational summary data DECEMBER YEAR END US$ / oz US$ / oz US$ / oz R/kg R/4E oz division Tonnes milled Underground grade produced Cash costs Allin sustaining costs 1, ,6 1, ,8 12,218 1, ,319 12,641 1, , ,74,111 1,24 1,17 1, ,78,661 1, , ,927 17, 1, , ,183 18,21 kt g/t kg koz 18, ,432 1,89 19, ,77 1,36 2, ,34 1,12 19, ,129 1,419 9, , 1,222 9, , 1,222 9, ,226 1,261 R/kg US$ / oz R/kg US$ / oz 29, ,726 1,67 347, ,472 1,31 377, , , ,46 1, , ,964 1,19 426, ,293 1,44 44,66 91,336 1,4 EBITDA (2 22) 4yr CAGR NPV R/Sh NPV of gold operations 27, NPV Stillwater 19,664 9 Platinum NPV,82 7 Net Debt/(cash) 22,466 1 Equity Value 38,1 18 No. of shares 2,9 Value per share 17% Ke 13.% 1% FY1 Divd.. 4% NPV % Graph 1 production profile to FY27e 4% 1,8 3% 1,6 3% 1,4 2% 1,2 7,469 34% 3,17 6,337 28% 3,8 1,192 37% 3,33,628 24% 2,88 6,62 31% 2,413 6,83 3% 2,436 8,92 32% 2,4 6% Capex Stillwater 2E mine sales koz % Cash costs net of recycling and by products Allin sustaining costs % 1% EBITDA 6 18% % % % % % % % , , ,193 26, ,192 26, ,194 26, ,194 1, % 3 1,64 2,392 % 1,224 11,284 4,321 24% 1,322 13,23 4,8 2% 1,9,1 4,74 22% 1,67 47, ,218 86, ,641 41,74 887,111 66,78 1,17,661 61, , 64, ,21 2% 9% 1% 21,781 7,469 34% (3,21) 1,87 22,717 6,337 28% (3,34) ,241 1,32 34% (4,1) 1,866 4,47 9,671 21% (6,1) (81) 4,337,6 31% (6,),663 9,287 17,8 3% (,682) 7,1 66,368 21,821 33% (,93) 1,292 21% 2% EBITDA margin koz SIBANYESTILLWATER OPERATIONAL SUMMARY ASSUMPTIONS () PGM 2E basket price (Stillwater) PGM 4E basket price US$/4Eoz ZARUSD Rand (Rand per kilogram) PGM 4E basket price R/4Eoz 1,,8,6 7%,4,2, Driefontein Kloof Beatrix Cooke Graph 2 price vs. costs to FY27e EBITDA margin Capex South Africa platinum Tonnes milled Underground grade Production of 4E ounces kt 4E g/t koz 1,6 1,4 4% 1,2 Operating cost R/4Eoz EBITDA EBITDA margin Capex Total cash cost R/kg US$ / oz R/4E oz 44,6 934 Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Capex Free cash flow Net debt/(cash) Net debt:ebitda 1,6.2 1, , , , , ,33. % 29% Normalised HEPS DPS R/share (.7) % 2% R/kg US$ / oz R/4E oz 44, , ,218 86, ,641 41,94 891,86 6, , ,94 1,13,4 674,48 1,28 17,46 4% 1% 8% 21,781 7,469 34% (3,21) 1,87 22,717 6,337 28% (3,34) ,241 1,32 34% (4,1) 1,866 4,496 9,747 21% (6,) (8),431 17,73 32% (6,44) 6,47 61,713 19,948 32% (,711) 8,96 68,12 23,321 34% (,98) 11,394 21% 22% 1,6.2 1, , ,43 2.3, , % 9% (.) % 6% 9% 3% AISC price Graph 3 PGM production: Stillwater & SA PGMs 2, 1,8 1,6 Production (koz) SUMMARY FINANCIALS,, DBe prices Rand (Rand per kilogram) PGM 2E basket price (Stillwater) PGM 4E basket price R/4Eoz US$ oz 1, 1,4 1,2 1, SUMMARY FINANCIALS,, Spot prices Rand (Rand per kilogram) PGM 2E basket price (Stillwater) PGM 4E basket price R/4Eoz Stillwater (2E prodn) SA PGM (4E) prodn Graph 4 EBITDA margins by division to FY27E 4% 3% Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Capex Free cash flow Net debt/(cash) Net debt:ebitda 1% 7% 3% 2% 2% % 1% Normalised HEPS DPS R/share 217E revenue split 222E revenue split South Africa platinum revenue 29% % % 217E EBITDA split South Africa platinum revenue 29% Sibanye gold revenue 41% Stillwater South Africa platinum, 2,1, 21% Sibanye gold revenue 3% Sibanye gold, 13,227, 1% Sibanye gold,,628, 8% Stillwater revenue 18% SA Platinum 222E EBITDA split South Africa platinum, 4,924, 19% Stillwater revenue 3% Stillwater, 7,717, 3% Stillwater, 2,33, 21% Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page

15 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 SibanyeStillwater: Changes to estimates Figure 19: Summary changes to estimates, FY17E19E, SA operations Year end December Production Rand gold price Cash costs gold All in sustaining costs, Cash costs gold All in sustaining costs, Revenue EBITDA Margin Capex koz R/kg R/kg R/kg 217e 1,419 1,419.% 41,74 413,1 412,434.3% 48,46 484,4.2% % 1,129 1,7 1.6% 23,929 23,342 2.%,628, % 24% 22% 3,19 218e 1,222 1,222.% 66,78 396,89 38,7 4.4% 46, ,244.6% % 1,19 1, % 22,3 18,97.2% 7,83 4, % 34% 26% 2,79 219e 1,222 1,222.% 61, ,22 41, % 496, ,41 1.6% 897 1, % 1,44 1,243.% 23,99 19, % 8,791,2 68.9% 37% 26% 2,42 Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Figure 2: Summary changes to estimates, FY17E19E, SA PGMs Year end December SA PGM production Rand basket price SA PGMs Cash costs R/PGM oz SA Platinum Revenue SA Platinum EBITDA Margin SA Platinum Capex Mimosa (Equity accounted) Revenue EBITDA Capex 4E koz R/4E ounce R/4E ounce 217e 1,193 1,19.2% 12, 12,6 3.3% 1,64 1,494.7% 13,349 12, % 2,1 1, % % 13% e 1,192 1,19.3%,917 12,428 2.% 11,284 1,699.%,98 13,24 2.6% 3,863 1,76 >1% 24% 13% 1,9 219e 1,194 1,198.3%,466 13, % 13,23 12,73.2% 17,734, % 3,494 1,391 >1% 2% 9% 1,23 1, , , Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page

16 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Figure 21: Summary changes to estimates, FY17E19E, Stillwater Year end December Stillwater (USA) mine sales 2E basket price Cash costs (net ), recycling offset Allin sustaining costs Stillwater Revenue Stillwater EBITDA Stillwater Capex 2E koz 217e % % % % 8,13 7,89 3.% 2,33 2,3 6.% 1,6 218e % 1, % % %,34 13, %, 4, % 1, e % % % % 17,93, %,29 4,838.3% 1,73 217e 4,47 44, % 9,671 8, % 21.3% 2.1% 4,198 2,779 4,42 1,83 2, % (.99) (1.24) 2.3% 218e 4,337 4,46 19.%,6 1, % 3.6% 23.9% 1,7 2,736 4,783 4,783 1,391 >1% >1% 6,1 6,4 1.6% 81 1,26 32.% 22,466 22,799 1.% % 6, 6,7 2.3%,663 1,623 >1% 17,781 21, % % 219e 9,287 49,391 2.% 17,8 11,434.8% 3.% 23.2% 11,386 2,73,773,773 1,634 >1% >1% >1%,682,91 3.7% 7,1 2,224 >1% 1,668 19,42 4.1% % Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Changes to group financials: Figure 22: Summary changes to group financial forecasts Year end December Group financials: Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin EBITDA margin Net operating profit Finance charges Profit/(loss) Headline earnings HEPS DPS Capex Free cash flow Net debt/(cash) Net debt / EBITDA Rps Rps multiple Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page

17 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Sibanye Investment Thesis Outlook We currently cannot see meaningful free cash flow from any of Sibanye's divisions until 22E, which coupled with a significant debt load of R22bn, leaves us holders of the share on a valuation basis. Aside from the obvious higher gold, platinum and palladium prices and/or a weaker Rand, significant earnings and cash flow growth could be delivered on the rampup of the Stillwater palladium mine in the US, which is targeting production growth from kozpa to 8kozpa by 222E; along with a decline in AISC unit costs from US$62/oz to between US $/oz to US$6/oz. This could lead to rapid deleveraging on the US$1.bn corporate bonds and US$4m convertible bonds but over the medium term, we continue to see Sibanye sustaining high debt levels of over 1x net debt to EBITDA until 22E, increasing financial leverage and risks, in our view. We see a balance of positive and negative risks to the investment case at current share prices, positive being the possibility of higher earnings and equity values owing to deleveraging; and negative being the possibility of debt hardening at current levels over the shortterm and causing higher financial leverage and interest charges consuming all earnings and operating cash flows. Hold. Valuation We derive our target price from a life of mine DCF model, using a WACC of 11% for South African mines (6% Equity 4% Debt capital structure given the balance sheet outlook, 13% CoE and 7.2% aftertax CoD) and a WACC of 6.% for Stillwater in the United States. We apply a 1x multiple to our NPV. For CY18 we use a gold price forecast of US$1,24/ounce; a platinum price forecast of US $978/oz; a palladium forecast of US$129/oz and a ZAR/USD forecast of.22. (Rand price of c.r67k per kilogram). Risk Risks include: the outcome of the restructuring process in the South African gold division, operational performance from the gold division given improvements/ deterioration in the companies labour relations, and its ability to deal with illegal mining at its operations. The performance from acquired Rustenburg Platinum Mines, as these are incorporated into Sibanye, is a risk to forecasts. The move from a Purchase of Concentrate agreement with Amplats at the end of 218 to a tolling contract for the Rustenburg mines' output is a further uncertainty as the financial terms are not disclosed. Sibanye has been highly accretive and further risks are posed by the potential for further corporate action; as well as potential approval/shelving of various projects under different economic enviroents. Differentthanforecast Rand PGM prices, Rand prices and/or USD PGM prices are risks to forecasts and sumoftheparts DCF valuation. Page 17

18 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Anglo Ashanti, Buy, R17ps PT We forecast Anglo to return to positive free cash flow in 218, as a result of higher EBITDA and reduced capex as project capex reduces. However, a risk to the conversion of EBITDA into operating cash flows is the current difficulty in claiming vat inputs in continental Africa (Geita in Tanzania and the Kibali JV in the DRC), which we estimate is currently at c.us$36m p.a. We see quality production (i.e. higher margin production) growth from Kibali and Tropicana in 218E. Figure 23: 217 AISC Anglo Figure 24: 218E AISC Anglo 1,8 1,4 Disposed of 1,6 Mponeng 1, Mineração Sunrise Dam Cerro Vanguardia Iduapriem Mine Waste Solutions Sadiola Geita Moab Khotsong Siguiri 6 Tropicana 8 Kibali Serra Grande Kopanang Surface Operations Kibali Mineração Iduapriem Tropicana Sadiola Moab Khotsong Geita 4 Cerro Vanguardia Siguiri 6 Mine Waste Solutions 8 Mponeng Geita: Tanzania risk 1, Sunrise Dam Quality production growth at Tropicana and Kibali 1,2 Surface Operations 1,2 1, , 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 1, Cumulative production (ounces) 1, 2, 2, 3, Cumulative production (ounces) Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Kibali underground commissioning a significant catalyst We forecast Kibali's 218 production to be +23% yearonyear with cash costs down by a similar amount and allin sustaining costs reducing by over 3% yearonyear as capex rolls off. The commissioning of the underground mine in 4Q 17 is driving our forecast for higher production out of Kibali. (Anglo s FY18E attributable share at c.34koz) Figure 2: Kibali attributable forecast production +23% yony on underground 4 Attributable production (koz) FY Underground FY17 FY18 FY19 Surface Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page 18

19 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Figure 26: AISC reduces 3% yony with increased production, lower capex 1,2 1,2 1, FY FY17 FY18 FY19 AISC Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Tropicana: production boost from grade streaming, Long Island study due December With the achieved increase in tonnes in 217, Tropicana has returned to grade streaming that brings forward gold production. Figure 27: Grades to increase at Tropicana with reintroduction of grade streaming Figure 28: production to increase on higher tonnages and grades 6, 3. 6, , 1. 2, 1. 1,. FY Tonnes milled (LHS) Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data FY17E FY18E FY19E Grade (RHS) production (koz) 4, Recovered grade (g/t) Tonnes milled (kt) FY production (1%) FY17E FY18E FY19E Attributable gold (7%) Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data The Long Island study outcome is likely in December and is likely to increase production further, in our view. Effectively it entails strip mining with inpit dumping to reduce haulage costs and will increase volumes. We expect it to be capital light (c.a$18m on 1% basis) which mainly relates to a larger mine village and maintenance infrastructure, as the contractorminer will provide the additional equipment. Page 19

20 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Anglo: summary model DBe price and currency forecast Figure 29: Anglo summary model, DBe price and DBe currency Trading metrics, DBe Free cash flow yield (FCFE/mkt cap) DY EV/EBITDA EV/Sales P/E Price:Book 2 1.9%.% n/a %.% %.6% e.7%.% e 3.8%.4% e.7%.6% Summary, December year end, DBe Summary operational metrics, DBe Reserves e 218e 219e Moz produced sold koz koz 4,647 4,668 Price received Allin sustaining costs Allin costs Total cash costs Financials income Cost of sales Total cash cost Gross profit Profit attrible to equity shareholders Basic EPS Headline earnings HEPS Adjusted Headline earnings AHEPS Dividends per share, Rcps Dividends per share, UScps ,947 3,96 3,628 3,9 3,69 3,719 3,448 3,448 3,437 3,437 1,264 1,26 1, , , ,271 1,84 1, ,24 1,2 1, , , UScps UScps UScps SAcps UScps,218 (4,19) (3,292) 1,43 (8) () (79) (19) (1) () 4, (3,294) (2,493) 7 (8) (2) (73) (18) ,86 (3,263) (2,43) ,361 (3,62) (2,722) 738 (6) (38) ,871 (3,78) (2,333) ,91 (3,7) (2,298) Net cash from operating activities Free cash flow Total borrowings Net debt Net debt to EBITDA x 1,22 (112) 3,721 3, , ,737 2, , ,178 1, (2) 2,366 2, Attributable EBITDA Attributable capital expenditure Free cash flow 1,66 1,29 (112) 1, , ,39 1,3 (2) 1,92 7 2,13 1, % 1, , ,13 1, % 1, Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 2

21 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Anglo: summary model spot price and currency Figure 3: Anglo summary model at spot prices and currency Trading metrics, Spot Free cash flow yield (FCFE/mkt cap) DY EV/EBITDA EV/Sales P/E Price:Book 2 1.9%.% n/a %.% %.6% e.6%.% e 7.1%.7% e 8.7%.9% Summary, December year end, Spot Summary operational metrics, Spot Reserves e 218e 219e Moz produced sold koz koz 4,647 4,668 Price received Allin sustaining costs Allin costs Total cash costs Financials income Cost of sales Total cash cost Gross profit Profit attrible to equity shareholders Basic EPS Headline earnings HEPS Adjusted Headline earnings AHEPS Dividends per share, Rcps Dividends per share, UScps ,947 3,96 3,628 3,9 3,69 3,719 3,448 3,448 3,437 3,437 1,264 1,26 1, , , ,272 1,84 1, ,299 1,6 1, ,318 1, 1, UScps UScps UScps SAcps UScps,218 (4,19) (3,292) 1,43 (8) () (79) (19) (1) () 4, (3,294) (2,493) 7 (8) (2) (73) (18) ,86 (3,263) (2,43) ,36 (3,62) (2,722) 742 (3) (37) ,4 (3,89) (2,342) ,61 (3,12) (2,323) Net cash from operating activities Free cash flow Total borrowings Net debt Net debt to EBITDA x 1,22 (112) 3,721 3, , ,737 2, , ,178 1, (247) 2,366 2, Attributable EBITDA Attributable capital expenditure Free cash flow 1,66 1,29 (112) 1, , ,399 1,3 (247) 1, ,13 1, % 1, , ,13 1, % 1, Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 21

22 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Anglo summary operational forecasts Figure 31: Anglo operational summary data DECEMBER YEAR END FY17e FY2e , ,628 3,69 3,448 3,437 3,4 TOTAL CASH COSTS, Great Noligwa Kopanang Moab Khotsong Mponeng TauTona ANG Surface Ops Iduapriem Obuasi Siguiri Morila Sadiola Geita Kibali Sunrise Dam Tropicana Cerro Vanguardia Mineração Serra Grande Cripple Creek & Victor / Discontinued Group FY13 1, , , , FY 1,74 1, , ,2 1, , FY17e FY2e 1, ,68 1, , , , ,2 1, , , , CAPEX, $m Great Noligwa Kopanang Moab Khotsong Mponeng TauTona ANG Surface Ops Iduapriem Obuasi Siguiri Morila Sadiola Geita Kibali Sunrise Dam Tropicana Cerro Vanguardia Mineração Serra Grande Cripple Creek & Victor / Discontinued Other inc current unapproved projects TOTAL FY ,9 FY ,189 FY17e FY2e % 4% 7% % 3% % % 12% % 2% % 2% 38 (8) 6% % 4% 12 (1) % 6% 1% (76) Graph 1 Production profile to FY4e, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, South Africa Continental Africa Australasia FY38e FY36e FY4e FY ,438 (%) 1 6 FY34e FY , R/share 12, ,972 6,26 2,491 3,482,871 11,798 1,838, 19,461 18,247 6,1,43 (3,367) 1,469 4,949 6,21 (1) 9,7 (31,) 63,862 FY32e PRODUCTION, koz Great Noligwa Kopanang Moab Khotsong Mponeng TauTona ANG Surface Ops Technology Iduapriem Obuasi Siguiri Morila Sadiola Geita Kibali Sunrise Dam Tropicana Cerro Vanguardia Mineração Serra Grande Cripple Creek & Victor / Discontinued TOTAL NPV South Africa Kopanang Moab Khotsong Mponeng TauTona ANG Surface Ops Continental Africa Iduapriem Obuasi Siguiri Morila Sadiola Geita Kibali Australia Sunrise Dam Tropicana Australia costs (other) Americas Cerro Vanguardia Mineração Serra Grande Total NPV Net Debt Equity Value Rolled forward at Ke FY3e FY2e.38 1,3 FY24e.78 1,266 FY28e.22 1,24 FY26e FY17e ,26 FY22e.61 1,249 FY2e ,1 FY ,267 FY FY ,413 ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI OPERATIONAL SUMMARY DATA ASSUMPTIONS ZARUSD () Americas Graph 2 Cash cost profile FY2e FY17e FY FY13 TOTAL CASH COSTS, Graph 3 Capex profile 2, 2, 1, 1, FY2e FY17e FY FY13 TOTAL CASH COSTS, Graph 4 Production split by region: FY17E vs. FY21e 4, Production (kozpa) 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, FY17e South Africa Continental Africa FY21e Australasia Americas Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company Data Page 22

23 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Anglo: Changes to estimates Figure 32: Summary changes to estimates, FY17E2E Year ending December Attrib. gold prodn Average ZAR/USD price price Cash operating costs AISC income EBITDA Adjusted HEPS Attributable capex Free cash flow Net debt/(cash) Net debt:ebitda oz R/kg USc FY17e 3,69 3,73 % % 1,26 1,261 % 41,873 42,19 % % 1,84 1,76 1% 4,361 4,3 % 1,39 1,327 % % 1,3 96 4% % 2,246 2,4 4% % 3,448 3,469 1% % 1,24 1,24 % 66, ,43 % % 1,2 1,6 % 3,871 3,833 1% 1,439 1,41 3% % % % 1,841 1,899 3% % 3,437 3,443 % % 1,266 1,266 % 61, ,373 21% % 996 1,2 1% 3,91 3,89 1% 1,83 1,36 3% % % % 1,636 1,463 12% % FY2e 3,4 3,486 1% % 1,3 1,3 % 64,188 4,3 18% % 999 1, % 4,88 4,43 1% 1,79 1,664 3% % % % 1, % % Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page 23

24 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Anglo Investment Thesis Outlook Anglo's management has diligently followed a shareholderfriendly, returnfocused approach over the past few years, having been successful in a number of cost and capexsaving initiatives in a lower gold price enviroent to protect margins and the balance sheet. We forecast Anglo to return to positive free cash flow in 218E, helped by an increase in highmargin production from key mines such as Kibali underground and Tropicana as it returns to grade streaming. The disposal and closure of the lossmaking Kopanang and TauTona mines respectively will further support 218E margins. At the same time, capex should reduce in 218E after a relatively capex intensive 217. Anglo will also receive US$3m from the sale of its Moab Khotsong mine in South Africa to Harmony when the sale goes through (management estimate in 1H18) which will be used to retire debt in South Africa. The share is trading at a discount to our estimate of fair value (NPV) and we forecast it to achieve positive operational and financial momentum in 218E, thus we have a Buy recommendation. Valuation We value Anglo based on a sumoftheparts DCF model of individual operations and projects. We apply a WACC of 1.% and a 1x multiple to our DCFderived net asset value for the company. For CY18 we use a gold price forecast of US$1,24/ounce and a ZAR/USD forecast of.22. We derive our oneyear forward target price from rolling our DCF forward at the cost of equity (11.7%) less the expected dividend yield. Risk Risks include a lower gold price and stronger exchange rates in the countries to which Anglo is exposed (higher dollarequivalent costs); as well as the outcome of the Obuasi project in Ghana. Further downside risks to our target price include renewed strain on the balance sheet should major projects go ahead (not currently modelled); as well as potential interruptions to production from i) labour productivity in South Africa and/or ii) loadcurtailment as a result of electricity shortages. Lower mining flexibility as a result of lower sustaining capital spend and higherthanexpected mining inflation are further downside risks. Legislative risks in Tanzania impacting the Geita mine are a further downside risk. Page 24

25 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Fields, Buy, R6ps PT Fields summary operational forecasts Figure 33: Fields operational summary data GOLD FIELDS OPERATIONAL SUMMARY DATA DECEMBER YEAR END ASSUMPTIONS ZARUSD () Silver () Copper (USc/lb) PRODUCTION, koz South Deep Tarkwa Damang St Ives Agnew+Lawlers Granny Smith Gruyere Darlot Cerro Corona TOTAL FY , FY , , FY17e , FY17e , , , , , , ,6 34 2,381 Fields Group ALLIN SUSTAINING COSTS TOTAL ALLIN COST FY 1,42 1,9 1,1 1, FY17e 92 1, FY FY17e NPV South Deep Tarkwa Damang St Ives Agnew+Lawlers Darlot Granny Smith Gruyere Cerro Corona Total Shares in Road Net Debt Minorities Equity Value Target price (rolled fwd) ZA 24,412, 1,879 2,422 1, ,664 2,44,669 66, ,999 1,691 47,774 Number of Shares (m) WACC ZAR/sh (%) 36.2% 22.2% 2.8% 3.6% 1.7%.3% 6.9% 3.6% 21.7% % Production profile to 24e South Deep Production and All in Sustaining Costs (AISC) to 24e 1,6 4 1,4 1,2 3 South Deep St Ives Gruyere Tarkwa Agnew+Lawlers Darlot Damang Granny Smith Cerro Corona FY17e FY2e FY21e FY22e FY23e FY24e FY2e FY26e FY27e FY28e FY29e FY3e FY31e FY32e FY33e FY34e FY3e FY36e FY37e FY38e FY39e FY4e , Capex profile to 24e e 218e 219e 22e 221e 222e 223e 224e 22e 226e 227e 228e 229e 23e 231e 232e 233e 234e 23e 236e 237e 238e 239e 24e CAPEX, USDm South Deep Tarkwa Damang St Ives Agnew+Lawlers Granny Smith Gruyere Darlot Cerro Corona TOTAL produced ( ounces) LHS AISC per ounce of gold sold (RHS) Total Production and Costs (AISC & AIC) to 24e South Deep Tarkwa Damang St Ives Granny Smith Gruyere Darlot Cerro Corona Agnew+Lawlers Cash flow by asset, 218e South Deep 6% 1,4 2, 1,2 Cerro Corona 17% 2, Tarkwa 18% 1, 1, 8 6 1, 4 2 Gruyere, JV % 22% Damang 1% e 218e 219e 22e 221e 222e 223e 224e 22e 226e 227e 228e 229e 23e 231e 232e 233e 234e 23e 236e 237e 238e 239e 24e produced (koz) (LHS) AISC (RHS) AIC (RHS) Granny Smith 11% Agnew+Lawlers % St Ives 11% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company Data, FactSet RT Page 2

26 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Fields: Changes to estimates Figure 34: Summary changes to estimates, FY17E19E Year end December Total attributable production RandUSD price All in sustaining costs Total all in costs Revenue EBITDA Margin Net operating profit Normalised Headline Earnings Normalised HEPS DPS Capex Net debt Net debt to EBITDA Free cash flow oz R/US$ UScps UScps n n n n 217e 2,94 2, % % 1,26 1,21.7% 92 1,4.2% 1,11 1,8 12.8% 2,771 2,748.8% 1,2 1, % 44% % % % % % 1,42 1,44 9.2% % (17) (36) 42.8% 218e 2,6 2,4.1% % 1,24 1,24.% 979 1,43 6.1% 994 1,1 1.9% 2,762 2,79.1% 1, 1,.1% 4% % %.9% % % 1,429 1,66 11.% % 31 (22) >1% 219e 2,381 2,394.% % 1,266 1,266.% % 968 1,24.% 3,118 3, % 1,33 1, % 43% % % % % % 1,18 1,388.% % % Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data Page 26

27 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Fields Investment Thesis Outlook We forecast Fields to be over the nearterm capex hump from it's significant capex programme which was begun in 217. The main components of the capex spend are the US$23m Damang cutback project in Ghana (for 222kozpa on average over 8 years) and the US$18m (attributable capex) Gruyere JV Project in Australia (for 27kozpa, 13kozpa attributable, for 13 years). The capital on both of these mines will be spent over FY17E18E. However, we believe that Fields could fund the remainder of the capex from internally generated cash flows. Higher production and reducing capex should result in a return to positive free cash flow in 218E and for the mediumterm. The constant unknown with Fields, however, is South Deep, the rebase plan announced in February 217 requires a further R2.3bn of growth capex as the mine targets a rampup to kozpa by E. Difficulty in hitting operational targets over the decadeplus that Fields has owned South Deep makes us cautious on the ability of the mine to achieve these reduced rampup targets. We thus do not expect South Deep to repeat its positive free cash flow performance of 2 any time soon, (DBe for 221E ~ assuming rampup plan achieved). The balance of Fields' portfolio should deliver a stepchange in production and profitability in 219E as projects begin to come to fruition. We estimate that Fields is trading at a discount to our fair value and thus have a Buy recommendation on Fields. Valuation We value Fields based on a sumoftheparts DCF model of individual operations and projects. We apply a WACC of 11.1% and a 1x multiple to our DCFderived net asset value for the company. For CY18 we use a gold price forecast of US$1,24/ounce and a ZAR/USD forecast of.22. Risk Risks include further M&A, a better/worsethanforecast project delivery at South Deep, Gruyere and Damang; rate of discoveries/ replenishment of resources and reserves in Australia; the gold price and the ZAR/USD rate, amongst others. Page 27

28 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Model updated: 28 November 217 Reuters: GFIJ.J Bloomberg: GFI SJ Buy Price (27 Nov 17) ZAR 7.79 Target Price ZAR 6. 2 Week range ZAR Market cap (m) ZA 47,37 USDm 3,448.1 Company Profile Fields is a gold producer with operations in Australia, South Africa, Ghana and Peru. The company underwent a transformative period recently, unbundling the majority of its South African assets into Sibanye and purchasing the Yilgarn South mines in Western Australia. Fields now mines most of its c.2.2mozpa from Australia, but remains with a primary listing on South Africa's JSE. Price Performance E 219E , 4, ,692 4, ,461 4, ,448 4, ,448 4, ,448 4,32 P/E (DB) (x) P/E (Reported) (x) P/BV (x) FCF Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) ,869 1,191 1, ,4 1, ,7 1,362 1, ,771 1,38 1, ,762 1,247 1, ,118 1,479 1, , ,88 1,911 1,284 3,194 3, ,663 1, , ,878 1,82 1,289 3,11 2, ,768 1, , ,33 1,693 1,42 3, 3, ,19 1,6 46 4, ,81 1,88 1,47 3,264 3, ,37 1, , ,898 1,88 1,426 3,283 3, ,6 1, , ,13 1,88 1,4 3,313 3, ,818 1,18 na Valuation Metrics EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Income Statement (USDm) Sales revenue Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest income(expense) Associates/affiliates Exceptionals/extraordinaries Other pretax income/(expense) Profit before tax Income tax expense Minorities Other posttax income/(expense) Net profit DB adjustments (including dilution) DB Net profit 4 Jan ' Jul ' Fields Jan '17 Cash Flow (USDm) Jul '17 Cash flow from operations Net Capex Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought back) Dividends paid Net inc/(dec) in borrowings Other investing/financing cash flows Net cash flow Change in working capital FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased) Margin Trends E EBITDA Margin 18E Balance Sheet (USDm) 19E EBIT Margin Growth & Profitibility E Sales growth (LHS) 18E 19E 1 ROE (RHS) Solvency E Weighted average shares (m) Average market cap (USDm) Enterprise value (USDm) Fields 2 2 DB EPS (USD) Reported EPS (USD) DPS (USD) BVPS (USD) South Africa 1 2 Financial Summary SubSaharan Africa 2 2 Fiscal year end 31Dec Running the numbers Net debt/equity (LHS) 17E 18E 19E Net interest cover (RHS) Patrick Mann, Page 28 patrick.mann@db.com Cash and other liquid assets Tangible fixed assets Goodwill/intangible assets Associates/investments Other assets Total assets Interest bearing debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Shareholders' equity Minorities Total shareholders' equity Net debt Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) DB EPS growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) Payout ratio (%) ROE (%) Capex/sales (%) Capex/depreciation (x) Net debt/equity (%) Net interest cover (x) Source: Company data, Deutsche Securities estimates

29 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Model updated: 28 November 217 South Africa Harmony Reuters: HARJ.J Bloomberg: HAR SJ Hold Price (27 Nov 17) ZAR Target Price ZAR 2. 2 Week range ZAR Market cap (m) ZA 1,12 USDm 76.4 Company Profile Harmony is a South African based producer of about 1.1moz pa. In South Africa (over 9% of group production) the company has nine underground mines, one openpit mine and several surface operations. In Papua New Guinea, operations are part of a joint venture with Newcrest and comprise one mine (Hidden Valley) and one project (Golpu). Price Performance Jan ' Jul ' Harmony Jan '17 219E 22E DB EPS (ZAR) Reported EPS (ZAR) DPS (ZAR) BVPS (ZAR) Weighted average shares (m) Average market cap (ZA) Enterprise value (ZA) 434 1,862 13, ,341 13, ,977 17, ,12 12, ,12, ,12,4 P/E (DB) (x) P/E (Reported) (x) P/BV (x) FCF Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) ,43 1,6 2,721 2,472, , ,36 18,334 4,718 3,762 2,17 1, , ,264 2,4 1,2 2, , ,888,3 4,686 2,6 2,81 3 2, ,486 27,694,66 4,46 3, ,29,862 4,79 3, ,43 2, ,36 1, ,6 2, ,13 2,433 2,8 1, ,84 3, ,94 4, ,374 3, , ,497 4,22 2,3 8 3,372 3, ,67 29, ,2 36,137 3,399,98 9,384 26,73 26,73 2,332 1,26 29, ,98 37,3 2,339 6,12 8,81 28,179 28,179 1,83 1,246 3, ,94 38,883 2,133 7,49 9,92 29,291 29, , ,992 4,346 2, 7,427 9,941 3,4 3,4 1,64 3,49 36, ,792 47,979 7,11 7,41,411 33,67 33,67 3,61 3,278 3, ,6 46,36 7,32,1 12,821 33,7 33,7 4,42 na Valuation Metrics Income Statement (ZA) Sales revenue Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest income(expense) Associates/affiliates Exceptionals/extraordinaries Other pretax income/(expense) Profit before tax Income tax expense Minorities Other posttax income/(expense) Net profit Cash flow from operations Net Capex Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought back) Dividends paid Net inc/(dec) in borrowings Other investing/financing cash flows Net cash flow Change in working capital Margin Trends E EBITDA Margin 19E Balance Sheet (ZA) 2E EBIT Margin Growth & Profitibility E Sales growth (LHS) 19E 2E 2 ROE (RHS) Solvency E Cash Flow (ZA) Jul '17 FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased) DB adjustments (including dilution) DB Net profit Financial Summary SubSaharan Africa 2 Fiscal year end 3Jun Running the numbers 17 Net debt/equity (LHS) 18E 19E 2E Net interest cover (RHS) Patrick Mann, patrick.mann@db.com Cash and other liquid assets Tangible fixed assets Goodwill/intangible assets Associates/investments Other assets Total assets Interest bearing debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Shareholders' equity Minorities Total shareholders' equity Net debt Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) DB EPS growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) Payout ratio (%) ROE (%) Capex/sales (%) Capex/depreciation (x) Net debt/equity (%) Net interest cover (x) Source: Company data, Deutsche Securities estimates Page 29

30 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Model updated: 27 November 217 Mining Reuters: SGLJ.J Bloomberg: SGL SJ Hold Price (27 Nov 17) ZAR Target Price ZAR 2. 2 Week range ZAR Market cap (m) ZA 34,67 USDm 2,23.4 Company Profile SibanyeStillwater owns and operates underground gold mines in South Africa Kloof, Driefontein, Beatrix (which were previously wholly owned by Fields Limited) and the acquired Cooke operations; in total producing 1.1.6Mozpa of gold. Sibanye Platinum acquired Aquarius Platinum (Kroondal, % share in Mimosa)and Amplats Rustenburg in 2, in total producing between 11.1Mozpa (4E). Sibanye is in the process of purchasing Stillwater, a majority palladium producer in the United States (..6Mozpa 2E), for US$2.2bn. Price Performance E 219E ,43 21, ,49 23,4 1,419 66,946 72,439 1,827 34,67 6,134 2,9 34,67 1,386 2,9 34,67 44,183 P/E (DB) (x) P/E (Reported) (x) P/BV (x) FCF Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) ,781 7,469 7,469 3,2 4, , ,2 22,717 6,337 6,337 3,637 2, , ,241 1,32 1,32 4,42 6, ,643 4, 1, ,72 4,47 9,671 9,671,473 4,198 2,779 12, , ,42 4,337,6,6 6,3 1,7 2, ,2 6,643 1,86 4,783 9,287 17,8 17,8 6,427 11,386 2, ,18 2,24, , ,2 2,487 2,622 1,83 4,783,773,8 3,228 1,83 1, 673 1, ,174 3, ,17 4,2 1,966 1,612,446, ,3 6, , ,63 2,966 3,239 1,86 11,677 6,,663 2, , 27 12,79,682 7,1 1,196 8, , ,623 27,922 3,17 9,766 12,936,986,986 2, , ,12 28,266 3,84 9,477 13,281,98,98 3, , ,13 1,64 41,721 8,974, 2,24,697,697 8,6 7,79,87 6,733 2,623 12,2 84,866 31,89 28,427 6,236 24,63 24,63 24,1,72 6,41 6,733 2,686 13,413 93,966 34,139 3,4 64,4 29,413 29,413 19,4 23,34,664 6,733 2,77,273 12,48 3,33 31,98 67,294 3,186 3,186 12,31 na na na Valuation Metrics Income Statement (ZA) Sales revenue Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest income(expense) Associates/affiliates Exceptionals/extraordinaries Other pretax income/(expense) Profit before tax Income tax expense Minorities Other posttax income/(expense) Net profit DB adjustments (including dilution) DB Net profit 2 Jan ' Jul ' Jan '17 SibanyeStillwater Cash Flow (ZA) Jul '17 FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased) Margin Trends E EBITDA Margin 18E Growth & Profitibility E Sales growth (LHS) 18E 19E 4 ROE (RHS) Solvency Net debt/equity (LHS) 17E 18E 19E Net interest cover (RHS) Patrick Mann, Page 3 patrick.mann@db.com Cash flow from operations Net Capex Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought back) Dividends paid Net inc/(dec) in borrowings Other investing/financing cash flows Net cash flow Change in working capital Balance Sheet (ZA) 19E EBIT Margin 8 217E Weighted average shares (m) Average market cap (ZA) Enterprise value (ZA) SibanyeStillwater 2 DB EPS (ZAR) Reported EPS (ZAR) DPS (ZAR) BVPS (ZAR) South Africa 2 Financial Summary SubSaharan Africa 2 Fiscal year end 31Dec Running the numbers Cash and other liquid assets Tangible fixed assets Goodwill/intangible assets Associates/investments Other assets Total assets Interest bearing debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Shareholders' equity Minorities Total shareholders' equity Net debt Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) DB EPS growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) Payout ratio (%) ROE (%) Capex/sales (%) Capex/depreciation (x) Net debt/equity (%) Net interest cover (x) Source: Company data, Deutsche Securities estimates

31 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Model updated: 28 November 217 South Africa Anglo Ashanti Reuters: ANGJ.J Bloomberg: ANG SJ Buy Price (27 Nov 17) ZAR.9 Target Price ZAR Week range ZAR Market cap (m) ZA 8,747 USDm 4,277. Company Profile Anglo Ashanti has 2 operations on four continents. The current production profile split by region is approximately 3% South Africa; 36% Continental Africa; 2% the Americas; and % Australia. Anglo is free cash flow focused and is targeting maximising free cash flow and lowering net debt from an improving portfolio. Price Performance Jan ' Jul ' Jan '17 Anglo Ashanti 218E 219E DB EPS (USD) Reported EPS (USD) DPS (USD) BVPS (USD) Weighted average shares (m) Average market cap (USDm) Enterprise value (USDm) 48,944 7, ,627 4,3 413,874 6, ,277 4, ,277 4, ,277 4,329 P/E (DB) (x) P/E (Reported) (x) P/BV (x) FCF Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) ,218 1,8 1, , 1,498 1, ,8 1,631 1, ,361 1, ,871 1,4 1, ,91 1,7 1, , , , ,64 1,974 9,134 3,721 2,42 6,263 2, ,871 3, ,8 1 1, ,284 2,737 2,8 4,817 2, ,467 2,23 2 4,111 1,633 1,49 7,3 2,178 2,221 4,399 2,7 39 2,74 1, ,7 1,689 1,237 7,223 2,366 2,192 4,8 2, ,66 2, ,937 1,682 1,337 7,32 2,13 2,261 4,364 2, ,96 1, ,77 1,7 1,348 7,79 2,13 2,287 4,39 3, ,319 1,684 na na Valuation Metrics EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Income Statement (USDm) Sales revenue Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest income(expense) Associates/affiliates Exceptionals/extraordinaries Other pretax income/(expense) Profit before tax Income tax expense Minorities Other posttax income/(expense) Net profit Cash flow from operations Net Capex Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought back) Dividends paid Net inc/(dec) in borrowings Other investing/financing cash flows Net cash flow Change in working capital Margin Trends E EBITDA Margin 18E Balance Sheet (USDm) 19E EBIT Margin Growth & Profitibility E Sales growth (LHS) 18E 19E 1 ROE (RHS) Solvency E Cash Flow (USDm) Jul '17 FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased) DB adjustments (including dilution) DB Net profit 1 2 Financial Summary SubSaharan Africa 2 Fiscal year end 31Dec Running the numbers Net debt/equity (LHS) 17E 18E 19E Net interest cover (RHS) Patrick Mann, patrick.mann@db.com Cash and other liquid assets Tangible fixed assets Goodwill/intangible assets Associates/investments Other assets Total assets Interest bearing debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Shareholders' equity Minorities Total shareholders' equity Net debt Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) DB EPS growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) Payout ratio (%) ROE (%) Capex/sales (%) Capex/depreciation (x) Net debt/equity (%) Net interest cover (x) Source: Company data, Deutsche Securities estimates Page 31

32 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure Anglo Ashanti ANGJ.J 2.34 (ZAR) 28 Nov 217 2, 3, 7, Fields GFIJ.J 7.71 (ZAR) 28 Nov 217 NA Harmony HARJ.J 24. (ZAR) 28 Nov 217, SibanyeStillwater SGLJ.J (ZAR) 28 Nov 217 6, 9 *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg, and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure lookup page on our website at DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Important Disclosures Required by NonUS Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in equity securities issued by this company. 6. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of a class of common equity securities of this company calculated under computational methods required by US law. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year.. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received noninvestment banking related compensation from this company within the past year.. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it received noninvestment banking securitiesrelated services. Important Disclosures Required by NonU.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Important Disclosures Required by NonUS Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in equity securities issued by this company. 3. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 6. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of a class of common equity securities of this company calculated under computational methods required by US law. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this company calculated under computational methods required by India law. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure lookup page on our website at Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Patrick Mann Page 32

33 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Historical recommendations and target price. Anglo Ashanti (ANGJ.J) (as of 11/28/217) Current Recommendations 4. 7 Security price 3. Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating ** Analyst is no longer at Deutsche Bank Jan ' May ' Sep ' Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Date 1. 12//2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann, 9. 1/4/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 2. 1/13/2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 8, Patrick Mann, 1. 12/2/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann, 3. 2/22/2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 19, Patrick Mann, 11. 3/6/217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann, 4. 3/7/2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 24, Patrick Mann, 12. 3//217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann,. 3/22/2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 23, Patrick Mann, 13. 7//217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann, 6. /9/2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 24, Patrick Mann,. 8//217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 137, Patrick Mann, 7. 7/6/2 Downgraded to Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 27, Patrick Mann,. 8/21/217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 13, Patrick Mann, 8. 8//2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, $$$$$ Page 33

34 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Historical recommendations and target price. Fields (GFIJ.J) (as of 11/28/217) Current Recommendations 12. Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating Security price ** Analyst is no longer at Deutsche Bank Jan ' May ' Sep ' Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Date 1. 12//2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 43, Patrick Mann, 9. 1/4/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann, 2. 1/13/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, 1. 11/8/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 7, Patrick Mann, 3. 2/19/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, /2/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 43, Patrick Mann, 4. 3/7/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann, 12. 3//217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 41, Patrick Mann,. 3/22/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 3, Patrick Mann, 13. 3//217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, 6. 4/19/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann,. /18/217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, 7. 7/6/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 61, Patrick Mann,. 8//217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 3, Patrick Mann, 8. 8/18/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 66, Patrick Mann,. 1/13/217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, $$$$$ Page 34

35 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Historical recommendations and target price. Harmony (HARJ.J) (as of 11/28/217) Current Recommendations 8. 4 Security price 6. Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating ** Analyst is no longer at Deutsche Bank Jan ' May ' Sep ' Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Date 1. 12//2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 8. 3/6/217 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 2. 2//2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, 9. 3//217 Downgraded to Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 23, Patrick Mann, 3. 3/7/2 Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann, 1. /9/217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 4. 3/22/2 Downgraded to Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann, 11. 7//217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 19, Patrick Mann,. 7/6/2 Upgraded to Buy, Target Price Change ZAR 6, Patrick Mann, 12. 8/18/217 Upgraded to Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 6. 1/4/2 Downgraded to Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, 13. 1/13/217 Downgraded to Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 7. 12/2/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 33, Patrick Mann,. 11/7/217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 21, Patrick Mann, $$$$$ Page 3

36 29 November 217 SA : outlook for 218 Historical recommendations and target price. SibanyeStillwater (SGLJ.J) (as of 11/28/217) Current Recommendations 8. Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating Security price 6. 7 ** Analyst is no longer at Deutsche Bank Jan ' May ' Sep ' Jan '17 May ' Sep '17 Date 1. 12//2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 8. 12/2/2 Downgraded to Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 18, Patrick Mann, 2. 1/13/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 26, Patrick Mann, 9. 3//217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 21, Patrick Mann, 3. 3/7/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 46, Patrick Mann, 1. /18/217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR 2, Patrick Mann, 4. 3/22/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 41, Patrick Mann, 11. /29/217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann,. 6/8/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, 12. 8/31/217 Sell, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann, 6. 8/26/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann, 13. 1/13/217 Upgraded to Hold, Target Price Change ZAR, Patrick Mann, 7. 1/4/2 Hold, Target Price Change ZAR 4, Patrick Mann, $$$$$ Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12 month view of total shareholder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus projected dividend yield ), we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock. Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research. Page 36