Cement. 2H outlook positive; rising costs to weigh down on EBITDA/t. 20 November 2017 India Cement Sector Report

Transcription

1 20 November 2017 India Cement Sector Report Cement 2H outlook positive; rising costs to weigh down on EBITDA/t Cement companies reported 15%/6% YoY consolidated volume/realisation growth in 2QFY18. Operational ramp-up in new capacities drove volume growth, while a change in the billing pattern led realisations improvement (+5.8% YoY). However, rising costs (petcoke/diesel) offset the higher realisations, resulting in a 3% decline in EBITDA/t for the sector (INR 808/t). Managements have a positive demand outlook for 2H, primarily on the execution of government infrastructure and housing projects. East and North India are expected to drive demand going forward. Rising costs and muted growth in realisations are expected to weigh down on EBITDA/t in 3Q. Additionally, the ban on petcoke usage in 3 states around the NCR will impact Shree, JK Lakshmi and JK cement the most (-3% to -5% impact on FY18 EBITDA). Key sector monitorables are demand and realisations improvement, which could offset cost escalations. JK Lakshmi remains our top pick in the sector. 2H growth outlook positive; profitability to be impacted on muted prices and escalating costs: Companies are optimistic about growth recovery in the cement sector in 2HFY18. Government infrastructure projects (roads, irrigation, metro, etc.) and low-cost housing are expected to be primary demand drivers. Managements expect better volume growth in East India (9% - led by Odisha and West Bengal and pent up demand kicking in from Chhattisgarh and Bihar) and the North (10% growth expectations for FY18). West/Central India are expected to grow moderately at 6-10%/5-7%. Demand growth in the South is expected to be driven by AP/Telangana (8-18%), offset by muted demand from TN/Kerala (-14% to -5%) and Karnataka (-6% to 5%). Realisations are expected to be muted on a sequential basis as cement prices have been stable-to-weak during Oct-Nov 17. Profitability in 3Q could be under pressure as increasing costs and weak realisations would weigh down on margins sequentially. Abhishek Anand CFA abhishek.anand@jmfl.com Tel: (91 22) Roshan Paunikar roshan.paunikar@jmfl.com (91 22) Volume/realisations grew 15%/6%, driving revenue in 2Q: Cement volumes in 2Q grew 15% YoY, primarily led by incremental volumes from new capacities added over the year. Average capacity utilisation (of the 15 listed companies) at 65% in 2Q grew marginally YoY (63% in 2QFY17). Cement production data as released by the government depicts a 0.4% decline in the Jul-Sep 17 quarter YoY, while the sales volume as reported grew 15%, implying increasing market share of organised players in the industry. Realisations in 2Q grew primarily on a change in the billing pattern of the companies from ex works to FOR. Realisations growth was accompanied by escalations in freight costs Marginally lower EBITDA/t as power/fuel and freight costs offset realisation growth: Weighted average EBITDA/t declined in 2Q as realisations growth was more than offset by the increase in power/fuel and freight costs. Increasing petcoke/coal prices led the growth in power/fuels costs, while higher diesel prices and a change in the billing pattern led the escalation in freight costs. The rise in pe-coke/coal prices (18%/13% YoY) and diesel prices (+7% YoY) in 3QFY18 (QTD) is expected to further impact the EBITDA/t. Petcoke usage ban in Rajasthan, UP and Haryana: The Supreme Court of India ordered a ban on use of petcoke in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana; this will impact cement companies adversely as c.76% of fuel requirements in kiln are met through petcoke. Additionally, Rajasthan is an important state for the industry on account of its large limestone reserves (12% of India s overall reserves). A blanket ban on petcoke is expected to impact Shree, JK Lakshmi and JK Cement the most (-3 to -5% on FY18E EBITDA). However, we believe the impact would be transitory as cement companies could be exempted in the medium term, as recommended by the EPCA in its report. Based on our reading of the Supreme Court s clarification, we could see restrictions on petcoke usage in other states as well going forward. JK Lakshmi remains the top pick JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters S&P Capital IQ and FactSet Please see Appendix I at the end of this report for Important Disclosures and Disclaimers and Research Analyst Certification. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited

2 Management Outlook Demand South: Growth led by housing and infrastructure projects in AP/Telangana - Cement demand in AP/Telangana has been growing 8-18% annually depending on the region of operation, led by housing and infrastructure projects. - TN/Kerala exhibited muted cement demand (-14% to -5%) on account of sand unavailability. Demand is expected to be sluggish due to the unseasonal rain in TN in 3Q. - Karnataka has been growing at -6% to 5%. West: Gujarat/Maharashtra to show better growth in 2H - Gujarat is expected to grow at 7% in FY18 on irrigation, road and government housing projects (-6% YoY in 1H). Demand in Gujarat was affected by floods in the region as well as RERA implementation. - Maharashtra is growing at a steady pace of 6%-10% and this is expected to continue. Central: Good growth in MP; UP/Bihar impacted on sand availability - MP/UP grew 4-5% in 2QFY18 and are expected to grow 5-6% in FY18. - Eastern UP and Bihar were impacted by sand unavailability and floods in Bihar. East: Demand uptick expected; 2Q impacted on monsoons and floods - Growing at 9% YoY in the areas around Odisha and West Bengal - Chhattisgarh and Bihar were impacted due to floods in the region. Cement volumes are expected to post better growth going forward as pent up demand kicks in North: Expected to grow at 10% in FY18 - Saw 2% growth in cement demand in 2Q; players in the region benefitted as Binani Cement stopped production Pricing The Chhattisgarh government has placed a cap on the cement price. Cement players are in dialogue with the government and a resolution is expected in 3Q. Prices in TN/Kerala declined by around INR5-10/bag during Oct-Nov 17; AP/Telangana saw a decline in the cement prices in at beginning of 3Q (by around INR10-20/bag). Central India saw stable pricing at the beginning of 3QFY18. Prices in Maharashtra declined MoM during Oct-Nov 17 (-INR10-20/bag); Gujarat prices fell by INR10/bag in Oct-Nov 17. Prices in Northeast India have been stable. Costs Petcoke/coal prices have been rising and the full impact of the higher prices is expected to be felt in forthcoming quarters. - Average petcoke prices in 2QFY18 were USD85-100/t; current petcoke prices are at USD /t. - Current petcoke prices are still cheaper than imported coal by 5-15% Increased demand of slag has pushed its prices up; prices have increased from INR700/t to INR1,000/t. Diesel prices have also been rising; current diesel prices are hovering around 3-year highs. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 2

3 Volume trends: Growth on capacity addition The uptick in cement volumes continued in 2QFY18, predominantly driven by the expansion in cement capacity. Going forward, companies expect an uptick in volumes in 2HFY18 on demand from government infrastructure projects, low-cost housing, the IHB segment and road projects. Exhibit 1. Player-wise cement volume trends (Mn T) Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY Commentary UltraTech Incremental volumes from JP assets Ambuja Cement ACC On operations ramp in Jamul and Sindri Shree Cement Volume growth on capacity addition India Cement Consolidation of Trinetra cement Madras Cement Higher demand from Eastern markets JK Lakshmi Higher capacity vs. the base quarter JK Cement Growth partially on low base Dalmia Bharat (ex OCL) OCL India Better growth in the eastern markets Orient Cement Growth on entry in newer markets Heidelberg Better volumes in MP Mangalam cement Better volume on capacity commissioning Sagar Cements Birla Corp Consolidation with Reliance cement Cumulative volumes %YoY %QoQ Capacity utilisation for players rose marginally to 65% in the Sep 17 quarter (vs. 63% in Sep 16), indicating that 15% volume growth took place partially due to the expansion in cement production capacity and partially on an increase in capacity utilisation. Exhibit 2. Growth driven by capacity addition % Total cement capacity (MTPA) Total Capacity Utilisation (%) 78% 77% 74% 76% 68% 65% 65% 63% 90% 80% 70% 60% % % 30% 20% 10% 55 Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 Ultratech, Ambuja, Shree, ACC, India cement, Ramco, JK Lakshmi, JK Cement, Dalmia, OCL, Orient, Heidelberg, Mangalam, Sagar, Birla corp 0% The government released its cement production data for Sep 17, reporting flattish growth; for 2QFY18, cement production declined marginally by 0.4% YoY. Cement volumes as reported by the companies in 2QFY18 (cumulative volumes of the top 14 listed players in the sector capacity share of c.61%) indicate volume growth of 14.7% YoY. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 3

4 Exhibit 3. Disconnect between cement sales and production data Government data on cement production Sales volume reported by Companies Volume (MnT) Growth (YoY %) Cumulative volumes (MnT)* %YoY Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep' Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17-75, Industry * Ultratech, Ambuja, Shree, ACC, India cement, Ramco, JK Lakshmi, JK Cement, Dalmia, OCL, Orient, Heidelberg, Mangalam, Sagar, Birla corp The volume trends indicate increasing market share for organised players. Market share increased from 60% in Sep 16 to 70% in Sep 17. Exhibit 4. Material change in share of listed players in Industry Listed player sales (MnT) - a All India Production (MnT) - b a/b % 76% 71% 70% 62% 64% 63% 63% 66% 60% 70% % 30% % -10% 20 Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17-30% Volumes for Ultratech, Ambuja, Shree, ACC, India cement, Ramco, JK Lakshmi, JK Cement, Dalmia, OCL, Orient, Heidelberg, Mangalam, Sagar, Birla corp JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 4

5 2QFY13 4QFY13 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 INR/50 kg bag) INR/50kg bag Cement 20 November 2017 Realisation trends: Higher realisations on the change in billing pattern Realisations during the quarter remained flat sequentially, +5.8% YoY; a deviation from the estimates was primarily on account of a change in the billing patter for some companies. Realisations growth was accompanied by increased freight costs for the quarter. However, realisations growth was only partially offset by the escalations in freight costs. Exhibit 5. Company-wise realisations trend Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY UltraTech 4,130 4,072 3,930 4,093 4,116 4,071 4,162 4,425 4, Ambuja Cement 4,285 4,245 4,057 4,336 4,428 4,324 4,208 4,675 4, ACC 4,530 4,409 4,231 4,356 4,406 4,510 4,348 4,648 4, Shree Cement 3,648 3,457 3,334 3,855 4,068 3,697 3,771 4,205 4, India Cement 4,888 4,750 4,598 4,506 4,502 4,541 4,484 4,718 4, Madras Cement 4,717 4,967 4,636 4,541 4,769 4,682 4,450 4,607 4, JK Lakshmi 3,690 3,681 3,419 3,486 3,618 3,485 3,370 3,773 3, JK Cement 3,788 3,580 3,392 3,705 3,652 3,594 3,720 3,991 3, Dalmia Bharat (ex OCL) 4,979 5,334 5,086 4,495 4,822 4,660 4,890 5,303 5, OCL India 4,456 4,355 4,430 4,659 4,625 4,918 4,518 4,842 4, Orient Cement 3,519 3,209 3,143 3,145 3,273 3,632 3,443 4,065 3, Heidelberg 3,740 3,681 3,571 3,788 3,842 3,693 3,744 3,915 3, Mangalam cement 3,570 3,579 3,285 3,674 3,922 3,607 3,749 4,022 3, Sagar Cements 4,346 3,597 3,343 3,434 3,732 4,039 3,661 4,058 3, Birla Corp 3,642 3,696 3,393 3,846 3,855 3,748 3,899 4,247 4, Average realisations 4,178 4,102 3,939 4,106 4,200 4,141 4,122 4,449 4, %YoY %QoQ Companies with exposure to South India (Dalmia ex OCL, Sagar, India Cement, Orient) saw realisations decline on a QoQ basis. Players in the central regions (Heidelberg, Birla Corp) recorded a flat realisations trend on a sequential basis. Exhibit 6. Quarterly cement prices across India and region-wise Sequential price decline in 2QFY Price decline across regions in Oct 17 Southern Eastern Northern Western Central , Industry JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 5

6 Cement price trends; price decline across regions in Oct 17 Oct 17 saw a moderate decline in cement prices MoM across regions - Prices in the West fell 2.4% MoM in Oct - South saw a marginal decline in cement prices in Oct MoM - Prices in the North declined 1.8% MoM - There was a 2% MoM decline in cement prices in the East - There was a 1% MoM decline in Central India As per the management of JK Lakshmi, the Chhattisgarh government limited cement prices in the state to INR 230/bag in 2QFY18. Companies are still in dialogue with the Chhattisgarh government on this issue. JK Lakshmi expects a resolution in 3QFY18. As per management commentaries, prices have declined in the states of AP/Telangana, Maharashtra, while cement prices have been flattish in Central India (MP and UP) and the Northeast in Oct-Nov 17 vs. exit the prices of 2QFY18. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 6

7 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 USD/t Cement 20 November 2017 Costs: Commodity prices lead cost escalations Power and fuel costs up 19% YoY The effect of increased petcoke/coal prices in 2QFY18 led to 19.2% YoY growth in power and fuel costs (sequentially higher by 7.4%). Average international coal prices were nearly 35% higher YoY in 2QFY18, while average petcoke prices were nearly 20% higher YoY during the same period. Exhibit 7. Power and fuel cost trends Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY UltraTech Ambuja Cement ACC 1, , Shree Cement India Cement 1,144 1,047 1, ,080 1,056 1, Madras Cement JK Lakshmi JK Cement 1, Dalmia Bharat (ex OCL) OCL India Orient Cement , , Heidelberg 1, , , , Mangalam cement , Sagar Cements 971 1,086 1,172 1,123 1,379 1,284 1,191 1,284 1, Birla Corp ,080 1, Average Power & Fuel/t %YoY %QoQ Going forward, we expect power and fuel costs to remain elevated on account of higher petcoke and coal prices. The average coal price is 13% higher YoY, Oct 17-Nov 17. Petcoke prices in Oct 17 at USD105/t were 18% higher YoY. Petcoke on a per-kcal basis is still cheaper than coal. Exhibit 8. Petcoke/coal price trends Coal prices on an upward trajectory Petcoke prices still at elevated levels Australian Coal Price 3 years min 3 years max Average Petcoke prices (USD/t) , Industry JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 7

8 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Cement 20 November 2017 Freight cost up 11.6% YoY The average freight cost was higher 11.6%/2.6% YoY/QoQ in 2QFY18. Freight costs during the quarter were higher partially on account of a YoY increase in diesel prices (7% higher YoY) and partially owing to the change in the sales pattern of the companies from ex works to FOR Exhibit 9. Freight cost trends Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY UltraTech 1,100 1,096 1,092 1,087 1,046 1,088 1,123 1,118 1, Ambuja Cement ACC 1,000 1,051 1, ,070 1,108 1,152 1,196 1, Shree Cement ,023 1,068 1, India Cement 1,017 1, ,008 1,045 1,006 1,041 1,052 1, Madras Cement JK Lakshmi , JK Cement ,022 1, Dalmia Bharat (ex OCL) OCL India Orient Cement , Heidelberg Mangalam cement 1,010 1,003 1,062 1,026 1,156 1,081 1,090 1,153 1, Sagar Cements Birla Corp Average Freight costs/t %YoY %QoQ We expect freight costs to rise as other companies also shift their sales pattern in subsequent quarters. Average diesel prices have risen 5% YoY in 3QFY18 (QTD). Exhibit 10. Diesel price trends Indian Diesel price - Delhi (INR/l) 3 years min 3 years max Source: JM Financial, Industry JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 8

9 Other expenses: decline on deferment of maintenance shutdowns Other expenses were uniformly lower in 2QFY18 across companies on deferred maintenance shutdowns and partially on the reversion of provision for the District Mineral Fund (DMF for limestone applicable from instead of ). Exhibit 11. Other expense trends Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY UltraTech Ambuja Cement 1, , ACC 1,128 1, ,049 1, Shree Cement India Cement 1,420 1,397 1,332 1,342 1,356 1,307 1,291 1, Madras Cement JK Lakshmi JK Cement Dalmia Bharat OCL India 1,318 1,128 1,203 1,036 1,583 1,493 1,128 1,148 1, Orient Cement Heidelberg Mangalam cement Sagar Cements Birla Corp Total Cement Costs up 7.9% YoY Power/fuel and freight cost escalations led to higher total costs in 2QFY18. Cost escalation - led by commodity prices - was offset by the decline in other expenses. Exhibit 12. Total cement costs Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY UltraTech 3,442 3,312 3,045 3,131 3,246 3,286 3,340 3,406 3, Ambuja Cement 3,682 3,697 3,340 3,345 3,751 3,744 3,561 3,612 3, ACC 4,085 4,065 3,670 3,689 3,958 4,111 3,851 3,936 4, Shree Cement 2,792 2,586 2,514 2,593 2,668 2,722 2,952 2,991 3, India Cement 3,892 4,002 3,790 3,659 3,610 3,828 3,841 4,034 3, Madras Cement 3,496 3,467 3,144 3,208 3,227 3,359 3,298 3,358 3, JK Lakshmi 3,299 3,296 3,022 2,931 3,067 3,036 3,057 3,246 3, JK Cement 3,505 3,309 2,882 3,090 3,254 3,139 3,050 3,304 3, Dalmia Bharat (ex OCL) 3,630 3,945 3,667 3,135 3,552 3,531 3,696 3,838 3, OCL India 3,634 3,431 3,247 3,321 3,469 3,637 3,278 3,553 3, Orient Cement 3,158 3,008 2,697 2,854 3,137 3,282 3,007 3,229 3, Heidelberg 3,287 3,153 2,993 3,133 3,244 3,321 3,165 3,394 3, Mangalam cement 3,588 3,420 2,822 2,903 3,460 3,290 3,326 3,399 3, Sagar Cements 3,917 3,207 2,804 2,982 3,167 3,429 3,254 3,392 3, Birla Corp 3,371 3,441 2,965 3,252 3,459 3,465 3,479 3,540 3, Average Cement costs 3,521 3,448 3,152 3,187 3,369 3,432 3,396 3,500 3, %YoY %QoQ JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 9

10 EBITDA/t: marginal decline in EBITDA/t as cost escalations were offset by lower other expenses and realisations growth EBITDA/t marginally lower: Cement EBITDA/t for the industry declined 3% YoY on account of realisations growth and lower other expenses being offset by power/fuel and freight cost escalations. With cement prices under pressure, cost escalations will impact profitability of cement players in 3QFY18. Exhibit 13. EBITDA/t trends Sep'15 Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 QoQ YoY UltraTech , Ambuja Cement , ACC Shree Cement ,262 1, ,214 1, India Cement Madras Cement 1,221 1,500 1,492 1,334 1,542 1,323 1,152 1,249 1, JK Lakshmi JK Cement Dalmia Bharat 1,149 1,193 1,313 1,352 1,230 1,183 1,212 1,395 1, Dalmia Bharat (ex OCL) ,465 1, OCL India ,182 1,338 1,156 1,281 1,240 1,289 1, Orient Cement Heidelberg Mangalam cement Sagar Cements Birla Corp Average EBITDA/t %YoY %QoQ JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 10

11 Management guidance Exhibit 14. Management guidance Company Volume growth commentary and Guidance Prices Costs Ultratech ACC Ambuja Demand uptick from: - Maharashtra infra projects like Trans-harbour link (work to start from Oct 17), JNPT renovation - Gujarat - Western rail freight corridor - Rajasthan - Road projects, demand on account of Swacch Bharat initiatives by the govt - MP - Rajgarh district rehabilitation - Haryana - Rural demand and road projects White cement and Putty growing at 18% CAGR. Favourable 3QFY18 on - Government spends on infrastructure; roads, highways, affordable housing. - Growth is expected to mirror overall economic growth Expects better demand on - Infrastructure projects; power, irrigation, roads, metros and railways, and freight corridors. - Affordable and low-cost housing and normal monsoons are expected to boost the rural demand Spot prices of petcoke at USD105/t vs. USD90/t average in 2QFY18 Company commentary 2HFY18 is expected to be better for cement. UT double digit growth in rural. DBEL Region/state wise growth rates for the company - East growing at 9% YoY - Andhra/Telangana growing at 18% YoY - Maharashtra growing at 6% YoY - Karnataka facing a decline of 6% YoY Expects prices to remain stable from Nov'17 to Jun'18 Petcoke prices would remain at USD85 levels, Slag prices have increase from INR700/t to INR1000/t currently Dalmia to outperform the industry India Cement JK Lakshmi cement JK Cement Heidelberg Sagar Cement Region/State wise growth rates - Andhra/Telangana growing at 8% YoY in 2Q; signs of pickup in the region - Maharashtra is showing signs of pickup - Karnataka grew by 4% YoY in 2Q - TN/Kerala decline 14% in 2Q; facing challenge on account of North east monsoons/sand issue YoY growth on better volumes in east (27% growth in 2Q) and north (6% growth in 2Q). Udaipur to reach 80% capacity utilisation by 4QFY18. Expect the north market to grow 10% in FY18; Southern market to remain flat (on issues of sand and monsoons); White putty segment is expected to grow by 10-12% and White cement to grow by 3-5% UP/MP has grown by 4-5% in 2QFY18; demand predominantly coming from IHB segment. Expects the region to grow at 5-6% in FY18-19 Company expects the volumes to grow at 5%, 7-7.5% and 10% in FY respectively - AP/Telangana will grow at 12-15% in current year - TN is facing a decline of 5% in the current year; recovery expected in 2HFY18 - Karnataka is growing at 5% in the current year; flattish for 1H - Maharashtra is expected to grow at 10% in current year; 20% YoY in 1H Prices in TN/Kerala are steady in Oct and 1st half of Nov. AP/Telangana and Maharashtra faced a decline in cement prices Chhattisgarh government has put a price cap on cement at INR230/bag. Company expects the resolution of the issue by the 3Q end. Prices in Oct and Nov have fallen MoM; aggressive pricing to push volumes in AP/Telangana Prices have been more of less flattish in the regions of operations. Expects the prices to be maintained even when off take from Ultratech increases. Pricing in Oct - Declined by INR10/bag in TN MoM - Declined by INR5/bag in AP/Telangana MoM - Declined by INR15-20/bag in Maharashtra MoM Petcoke prices at USD 105/t. Petcoke still cheaper than imported coal by nearly 20-25% Petcoke/coal prices have grown; Looking out for other options like coal linkages. Company has commissioned 7.5MW of WHR (INR50/t benefit) and in process of setting up 20MW of TPP (INR200/t benefit) which is expected to bring down the cost Average Petcoke price of INR7,100/t, current landed Petcoke costs at INR7,800-7,900/t Petcoke at around USD /t; still cheaper than coal Petcoke is still % economical for the company than coal. Petcoke average costs was INR7,600/t which has gone up to INR7,700/t as on 30th, Oct'17 Expects to do MT of Cement volumes in FY18 and an additional MT of clinker volumes Expects better period for cement going forward. Sanghi Industries Expects 7% growth in Gujarat in FY18; -6% YoY in 1HFY18 on impact of real estate due to RERA. Growth expected on account of irrigation, housing, and road projects from Government. Rajasthan is expected to grow at 10% in FY18 Prices in Gujarat have been stable sequentially in 2QFY18. Prices in Oct have been under pressure in Gujarat and MH. INR10/bag decline in the cement prices in Oct and Nov Switched to lignite. Doesn t expect much of movement in prices of lignite Star Cement Expects the demand to pick up in 2HFY18; full year growth guidance of 10-12% Shree Cements revised the volume growth guidance SRCM downwards to 8-9% in FY18 from 12% earlier Prices have been stable in NE and is expected to continue to be so Uses coal; don t foresee any change in coal prices Company will achieve the target of 10% volume growth despite lack lustre 1HFY18 JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 11

12 Other key developments in the sector Petcoke Ban SC imposes ban on Petcoke in Rajasthan - expect transitory impact: The Supreme Court of India ordered a ban on petcoke usage in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana from 1Nov 17. On average, 76% of the fuel requirement in cement companies is met through petcoke. Additionally, Rajasthan is an important state for the cement industry on account of its large limestone reserves (12% of India s overall reserves). The blanket ban on petcoke in the region will adversely impact cement companies with exposure to the states. We expect Shree, JK Lakshmi and JK Cement to be impacted the most (negative impact of 3-5% on FY18E EBITDA). However, upon reading the judgement, along with the environment report, we believe the impact to be transitory in nature as cement companies could be exempted in the medium term, as recommended by the EPCA in its report. Please find our detailed report here Supreme court order on Pet-coke usage ban EPCA report to Supreme Court Subsequent clarification from EPCA and SC: EPCA in its clarification to the states stated that the petcoke usage ban is limited to the NCR region. Subsequently, Rajasthan passed an order directing industries in the districts of Alwar and Bharatpur to stop using petcoke and furnace oil. The Supreme Court in its hearing issued a clarification that the order on the ban on the usage of petcoke is applicable to the entire states of UP, Rajasthan and Haryana and is not restricted to the NCR region. Supreme court clarification EPCA clarification Rajasthan order Exhibit 15. Increasing petcoke usage in India % 10.1 Pet-Coke usage (MT) Growth (%) 16% % % % 23.6 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Source: JM Financial, Industry Exhibit 16. EBITDA/t impact on cement players % Petcoke in Kiln Capacity in banned regions mnt Total Capacity mnt Impact/t INR FY18E EBITDA/t INR Proportionate impact in FY18 INR EBITDA/t impact Ultratech 74% % Ambuja 67% % ACC 65% % Shree Cement 100% , % JK Lakshmi Cement 85% % JK Cement 75% %, Industry JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 12

13 West UP East UP Haryana East MP Vidarbha (Maha) Punjab Coastal Ktka Telangana West MP Jharkhand Kerala Odisha Bihar East Rajasthan India Marathwada WB South Ktka North Ktka West Maharashtra Gujarat Coastal AP Maharashtra Rayalaseema (AP) Tamil Nadu Saurashtra and Kutch West Rajasthan Cement 20 November 2017 Monsoon Update We expect a volume uptick in cement on account of adequate rainfall across the country. India s 2017 monsoon was 5% below normal in the South-West monsoons and 9% below normal in the North-East. - However, spatial distribution has not been uniform, with western Rajasthan, Gujarat and Coastal areas receiving above-normal rains while the land-locked areas of UP, Vidarbha, MP and Jharkhand received below-normal rains - Areas around the Eastern coast such as Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh have received above-normal receding rainfall. Exhibit 17. Monsoon Update South West monsoons: 5% below normal from LTA in % 39% 33% 26% 18% 14% 10% 10% -30% -27% -25% -24% -23% -21% -17% -15% -15% -10% -10% -9% -8% -8% -5% -4% -4% -2% -1% North East monsoons: 9% below LTA in 2017 (till 15 th Nov 17) 7% 8% 16% 16% 20% 23% 23% 27% 46% 54% -16% -12% -12% -11% -9% -29% -42% -40% -65% -55% -80% -100%-100%-99% -98% -94% -89% East Rajasthan West Rajasthan West UP Haryana East UP Punjab Saurashtra and Kutch West MP East MP Gujarat Coastal AP Bihar Kerala Tamil Nadu Coastal Ktka Vidarbha (Maha) India South Ktka Telangana North Ktka West Maharashtra Marathwada Odisha Maharashtra Jharkhand Rayalaseema (AP) WB Source: JM Financial, Industry JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 13

14 Capacity expansion in the pipeline The majority of the expansion in the pipeline is slated to come online by FY19 Exhibit 18. Expansion pipeline Company Location State Region Capacity (MTPA) Ambuja Marwar Mundwa Rajasthan North 1.70* Commissioning Ultratech Cement Dhar Madhya Pradesh Central QFY19 Ultratech Cement Bara Uttar Pradesh Central QFY19 Ultratech Cement Super Dalla Uttar Pradesh Central 2.30* 2QFY19 Shree Cement Aurangabad Bihar East QFY18 Shree Cement Aurangabad Bihar East QFY18 Shree Cement Sriganganagar Rajasthan North QFY19 Shree Cement Gulbarga Karnataka South QFY19 Ramco Cement Vizag AP South 1.10 FY19 Ramco Cement Kolaghat WB East 1.10 FY19 Ramco Cement Haridaspur Odisha East 0.90 FY19 JK Lakshmi Cuttack Odisha East QFY19 Sanghi Cement Kutch Gujarat West 4.00 FY20 Star cement Siliguri West Bengal East 1.50 KCP South 1.66 FY19 Penna South 2.00* FY20 Total 31.36*, Industry * - Clinker capacity is not included in the total capacity Successful limestone/coal linkage auctions Ambuja is putting up a clinker manufacturing unit with capacity 1.7MTPA in Marwar Mundhwa in Rajasthan. Exhibit 19. Successful limestone auctions Company Name of the mine Location Reserves (MT) Winning bid Limestone auction cost per tonne of cement (INR/t) Winning Year Ambuja Cement 3D1, Harima Pithasar Rajasthan % Oct-17, Industry Shree Cement has won coal mine linkages in Chhattisgarh for its Raipur plant. Coal from New Kusmunda Mines will be used in the kilns in Raipur. Assuming 700Kcal/Kg of clinker energy usage and 1.5x cement-to-clinker ratio in Raipur, 1.3MT of cement can be produced through the linkage coal usage in this plant. Exhibit 20. Coal linkages Company Mine Usage Grade Calorific Value (Kcal/t) Quantity (TPA) Notified price (INR/t) Winning premium (INR/t) INR/Kcal Maximum cement production through coal usage (MTPA) Shree Cement New Kusmunda Mines Cement plant in Raipur G11 4,300 80, Shree Cement New Kusmunda Mines Cement plant in Raipur G11 4,300 60, Shree Cement Baroud OC CPP in Raipur G8 5,200 70,300 1, Shree Cement Jampali OC CPP in Raipur G10 4,600 5,500 1, JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 14

15 Company-wise updates Ultratech Management expects the Jaiprakash assets to be cash break-even by 1QFY19. Net debt at end-sep 17 stands at INR 136bn (vs. INR 129bn at end-jun 17). JP Super/Bara units (2.3MT clinker/4mt grinding) are expected to be commissioned in Sept 18. The company is putting up 4LMT of wall care putty capacity at an investment of INR 19.4bn, which is expected to be commissioned during 2QFY20. Ambuja Cement The company has recently won the bid for a limestone block at Harima Pithasar, in Rajasthan with MT of mineral reserves. The winning bid was 41.6% of the value of mineral dispatched. Shree Cement The company has recently secured 75,800 TPA of coal linkage for its captive power plant in Raipur. Dalmia Bharat Company reduced its net debt from c.inr 46bn at end-jun 17 to c.inr 42.8bn at end- Sep 17 (gross debt reduced by INR 1.79bn; INR5.08bn in 1HFY18); reduction in the net debt by c.inr 3.3bn during 2QFY18 led to the net debt-to-ebitda ratio being reduced to 2.2x from 2.4x at end-jun 17 and cost of debt reduced to 8.1% (vs. 8.3% in 1QFY18). Management expects the merger to be completed by end-fy18. Schemes of arrangement - Involving Odisha Cement Ltd, Dalmia Bharat Ltd and Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Ltd is pending for sanction by NCLT, Chennai bench and - Involving Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Ltd and its subsidiaries has been approved by NCLT Chennai branch in Oct 17 and is pending to be filed with ROC Chennai. The company has undertaken the preparatory work to explore the brownfield and greenfield expansion possibility at OCL. Ramco Cement Ramco completed the buyback of 2.5mn shares (representing 1.05% of the paid up capital) for INR 1.68bn (average price of INR 670.8/share). Ramco has subscribed to the Rights issue offer of Lynks Logistics Limited and has acquired 48.1mn shares for INR 48.1mn. Consequently, Ramco Cements shareholding in the logistics company stands at 100mn (47.62% of the paid up capital from 47.18% earlier). Lynks Logistics is a technology platform that aggregates transport service providers and connects them with customers. JK Lakshmi Cement The company has commissioned 7.5MW of WHR in Durg, which is expected to benefit partially in 3Q and completely from 4Q (INR 40-50/t benefit); ii) 20MW of thermal power plant in Durg is expected to come on stream in 4QFY19 (INR 200/t benefit) Gross debt stood at INR 22bn and net debt stood at INR 16.5bn with INR 5.25bn of additional debt on Udaipur. Orissa grinding unit construction picked up pace in 2QFY18 and the unit is expected to be operational by 2QFY19. Cement price caps applicable in Chhattisgarh still persist; management is confident of a resolution in 3QFY18. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 15

16 JK Cement Net debt declined INR 1,760mn during 1HFY18 from INR 19.1bn at end-mar 17 to INR 17.3bn at end-sep 17. Gross debt declined by INR 1,520mn during 1HFY18 to INR 23.6bn at end-sep 17 from end-mar 17. Consequently the net debt-to-ebitda ratio stands reduced to 2.14x from 2.6x at end-mar 17. Please click on the links for detailed result notes UltraTech Cement Stable operational performance despite JP overheads ACC Improved profitability on strong realisations Ambuja Cement Muted realisation growth, cost escalations impact profitability Shree Cement 2QFY18 Better volumes on capacity addition; costs impact profitability Dalmia Bharat Profitability maintained on cost optimisation The Ramco Cements Cost escalations impact margins; volume growth encouraging JK Lakshmi 2QFY18 results Stable quarter; cost saving initiatives to benefit in FY19 JK Cement 2QFY18 result Operations surprise positively JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 16

17 Exhibit 21. Valuation table Company EV/EBITDA (x) EV/t (USD) PE (x) PBV (x) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E Ultratech Cement Ambuja Cement ACC Shree Cement Ramco Cement Dalmia Bharat JK Lakshmi Cement JK Cement Exhibit 22. Valuation Charts Ultratech EV/EBITDA chart Ambuja EV/EBITDA chart Rolling EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (15.3x) EV/EBITDA 10 year average (11.4x) EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (16.4x) EV/EBITDA 10 year average (12.2x) Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 ACC EV/EBITDA chart Shree Cement EV/EBITDA chart Rolling EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (14.9x) EV/EBITDA 10 year average (11.3x) Rolling EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (15.4x) EV/EBITDA 10 year average (9.4x) Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Ramco Cement EV/EBITDA chart Dalmia Bharat EV/EBITDA chart EV/EBITDA EV/E 5 year average (11.3x) EV/E 10 year average (8.9x) Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (9x) EV/E max period average (7.4x) JK Lakshmi EV/EBITDA chart JK Cement EV/EBITDA chart EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (13.3x) EV/EBITDA 5 year average (8.4x) EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 year average (9.5x) EV/EBITDA 10 year average (6.8x) , Bloomberg JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 17

18 Exhibit 23. Assumptions table Company Capacity (MTPA) Volumes (MTPA) Realisation (INR/t) EBITDA/t (INR/t) Cost/t (INR/t) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E Ultratech ,349 4,646 4, ,119 1,260 3,550 3,661 3,764 Ambuja Cement ,456 4,725 4, ,072 3,650 3,753 3,844 ACC ,614 4,854 5, ,014 4,120 4,228 Shree Cement ,139 4,396 4,576 1,161 1,311 1,380 2,982 3,089 3,199 Ramco Cement ,693 4,928 5,150 1,178 1,237 1,329 3,486 3,662 3,794 Dalmia Bharat ,968 5,267 5,556 1,284 1,378 1,454 3,685 3,889 4,102 JK Lakshmi ,840 4,053 4, ,379 3,441 3,527 JK Cement ,922 4,118 4, ,093 4,233 4,365 Exhibit 24. Key financials Company Net sales (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) Net Profit (INR mn) EPS (INR) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E Ultratech Cement 303, , ,054 65,378 90, ,369 26,895 43,175 62, Ambuja Cement 102, , ,758 19,026 25,739 31,336 11,816 16,334 21, ACC 128, , ,764 18,657 22,701 27,191 8,768 11,572 14, Shree Cement 99, , ,246 27,129 40,202 47,915 15,304 21,060 23, Ramco Cement 44,691 51,459 63,416 12,430 14,158 17,548 7,023 7,839 10, Dalmia Bharat 83,419 95, ,981 20,964 24,389 27,860 5,492 8,399 11, JK Lakshmi Cement 35,580 40,562 45,127 4,682 6,556 8,164 1,450 2,796 4, JK Cement 43,508 50,585 58,275 8,231 10,460 12,762 3,508 4,747 6, Exhibit 25. Key financial ratios Company RoE (%) RoCE (%) ND:EBITDA (x) ND:Equity (x) DPS (INR) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E Ultratech Ambuja Cement ACC Shree Cement Ramco Cement Dalmia Bharat JK Lakshmi JK Cement JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 18

19 APPENDIX I JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Corporate Identity Number: U65192MH1995PLC Member of BSE Ltd. and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. SEBI Registration Nos.: BSE - INZ , NSE - INZ and MSEI - INZ , Research Analyst INH Registered Office: 7th Floor, Cnergy, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai , India. Board: Fax: jmfinancial.research@jmfl.com Compliance Officer: Mr. Sunny Shah Tel: sunny.shah@jmfl.com Definition of ratings Rating Meaning Buy Total expected returns of more than 15%. Total expected return includes dividend yields. Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price. Sell Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% Research Analyst(s) Certification The Research Analyst(s), with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures This research report has been prepared by JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited (JM Financial Institutional Securities) to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its associates solely for the purpose of information of the select recipient of this report. This report and/or any part thereof, may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of JM Financial Institutional Securities. This report has been prepared independent of the companies covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Research Analyst, Merchant Banker and a Stock Broker having trading memberships of the BSE Ltd. (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (MSEI). No material disciplinary action has been taken by SEBI against JM Financial Institutional Securities in the past two financial years which may impact the investment decision making of the investor. JM Financial Institutional Securities provides a wide range of investment banking services to a diversified client base of corporates in the domestic and international markets. It also renders stock broking services primarily to institutional investors and provides the research services to its institutional clients/investors. JM Financial Institutional Securities and its associates are part of a multi-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its associates might have provided or may provide services in respect of managing offerings of securities, corporate finance, investment banking, mergers & acquisitions, broking, financing or any other advisory services to the company(ies) covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its associates might have received during the past twelve months or may receive compensation from the company(ies) mentioned in this report for rendering any of the above services. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its associates, their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) covered under this report or (c) act as an advisor or lender/borrower to, or may have any financial interest in, such company(ies) or (d) considering the nature of business/activities that JM Financial Institutional Securities is engaged in, it may have potential conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report on the subject company(ies). Neither JM Financial Institutional Securities nor its associates or the Research Analyst(s) named in this report or his/her relatives individually own one per cent or more securities of the company(ies) covered under this report, at the relevant date as specified in the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, The Research Analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and members of their household are prohibited from buying or selling debt or equity securities, including but not limited to any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position issued by company(ies) covered under this report. The Research Analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report or their relatives (as defined under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014); (a) do not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered under this report or (b) did not receive any compensation from the company(ies) covered under this report, or from any third party, in connection with this report or (c) do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Research Analyst(s) are not serving as an officer, director or employee of the company(ies) covered under this report. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to herein, and JM Financial Institutional Securities does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. JM Financial Institutional Securities may not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This report is provided for information only and is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investment discussed or views expressed or recommendations/opinions given herein may not be suitable for all investors. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. The information contained herein may be changed without notice and JM Financial Institutional Securities reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as they may deem fit from time to time. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 19