Statistics on Performance

Transcription

1 Statistics on Performance Introduction Since 1996, KPMG Corporate Finance, in co-operation with AIFI, is carrying out, on an annual basis, the analysis of the performance of the Italian private equity and venture capital industry. This survey, which involves a significant sample of the private equity and venture capital houses operating in Italy, has been basically performed in order to assess the overall performance of the Italian market. Since the 2004 edition, in order to provide an in-depth representation of the performance of the Italian market and to align the performance measurement to the European and international standards, the analysis has been carried out considering (i) gross pooled IRR on realised investments 1, as well as (ii) gross pooled IRR on all investments 2. Gross pooled IRR on realised investments provides a realistic overview of the market, representing the overall performance related to the realised divestments, but it does not consider the implicit performance referred to the investments still in PE s portfolio. Gross pooled IRR on all investments provides a wider insight of the market trend, even though it might be affected by the common practice of a number of private equity houses to valuate most of assets in their portfolio at cost. Therefore, the analyses described in the followings consider: one-year gross pooled IRR on realised investments from inception (divestments made in 2013); ten, five, three and one-year horizon gross pooled IRR on all investments (investments respectively made in the period , , and in 2013, no matter if, at the end of the period considered, the asset is still in portfolio or it has been partially or totally divested). Performance has been measured in terms of pooled IRR, considering all the cash flows disclosed by the private equity houses, aggregated as if they resulted from the transactions carried out by a unique fund (whose performance has been measured). 1 According to the EVCA principles, this indicator of performance takes into account investments (cash outflows) and divestments (cash inflows) in which the private equity and venture capital houses disposed at least a 30% stake of the initial investment in equity. In case of partial divestments, only the related part of total cash out has been considered. 2 This second level of IRR considers both realised and still in portfolio investments, no matter if the divestment has been partial. AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 53 14_D_Performance.indd 53 07/05/14 15:13

2 It should be pointed out that the following analyses consider solely the transactions for which all the details required for estimating the performance have been made available; consequently, transactions with just partial data available have not been considered, due to the impossibility to properly estimate their IRR gross pooled IRR on realised investments Similarly to the previous editions of the survey, the initial focus of the analyses is on 2013 gross pooled IRR on realised investments from inception: this indicator measures the performance of the divestments recorded in 2013 (regardless of when the initial investment was made). Table 1 IRR from inception analysis: main sample N. of PE & VC houses included in the research panel N. of PE & VC houses showing realised investments N. of realised investments from inception Average investment size (Euro Mln) Total cash out (Euro Mln) 2, , Total cash in (Euro Mln) 4,809 1,112 2, Table 1 shows how the sample has remained stable since last year, totalling 95 private equity houses in The constant number of the participants is a clear evidence of the persistent interest of the private equity houses toward the survey and, moreover, attests the strengthening reliability and significance of the analyses over the years. The number of private equity houses showing realised investments (i.e. divestments made in 2013) increased from 36 in 2012 to 55 in In terms of investment activity, the number of divestments recorded within the sample in 2013 grew significantly with respect to the previous year (102 in 2013 vs 82 in 2012). Total cash out in 2013 amounted to Euro 2,115 Mln (vs Euro 840 Mln in 2012), and total cash in amounted to Euro 4,809 Mln in 2013 (vs Euro 1,112 Mln in 2012). The average investment size doubled from Euro 10.2 Mln in 2012 to Euro 20.7 Mln in The implicit (and theoretical) cash exit multiple of 2013 stands at 2.3x (vs 1.3x in 2012). 54 AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 14_D_Performance.indd 54 07/05/14 15:13

3 In line with 2012, MBO/MBIs remain a recurring choice for private equity houses at exit level (see Chart 1). In fact they represent (by number) about 29.4% of total divestments (vs 30.5% in 2012). The incidence of the transactions related to companies in their development stage slightly decreased (31.4% in 2013 vs 42.7% in 2012). On the other hand, investments made during the early life of a company (i.e. early stage) show a significant increase (from 21.9% in 2012 to 36.3% in 2013). Replacement transactions (transactions aiming at substituting minority shareholders) slightly decreased to 2.9% in 2013 (vs 4.9% in 2012). Chart 1 IRR from inception analysis: sample breakdown by financing stage (incidence by number) The sample breakdown by acquired stake, as illustrated in Chart 2, confirms the significant prevalence of transactions involving minority stakes (which represent 79.2% of the sample), with a particular focus on the two ranges between 10% and 50% which collect the majority of transactions (25.7% the range comprised between 10%-25% and 30.7% the range between 25%-50%). In this context, it should be pointed out that all the investments have been analysed on a stand-alone basis; any possible pool agreement among private equity houses, which might have jointly acquired majority stakes, has not been taken into account. AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 55 14_D_Performance.indd 55 07/05/14 15:13

4 Chart 2 IRR from inception analysis: sample breakdown by acquired stake (incidence by number) Considering target sales size (see Chart 3) about three-quarters of the total divestments in 2013 (70.0%) involved small-medium companies (with a turnover lower than Euro 50 Mln), showing an alignment in terms of incidence with respect to 2012 (74.0%). The incidence of transactions involving medium companies (with a turnover between Euro 50 Mln and Euro 250 Mln) remained stable to 18.0% in 2013 (the same percentage in 2012), whereas divestments related to large companies (with a turnover higher than Euro 250 Mln) increased from 7.0% in 2012 to 12.0% in Chart 3 IRR from inception analysis: sample breakdown by target sales size (by number) 56 AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 14_D_Performance.indd 56 07/05/14 15:13

5 To sum up, most of the divestments observed in 2013 involved minority stakes in smallmedium companies (with a turnover lower than Euro 50 Mln), acquired both during their early or development stage. According to the international standard criteria related to the so called first level of IRR, the 2013 Italian private equity and venture capital performance is firstly represented in terms of pooled internal rate of return from inception (see Table 2). Table 2 IRR from inception by year in N. of realised investments from inception Yearly pooled irr 18.2% 6.2% 12.6% 11.4% 16.6% The Italian private equity and venture capital industry shows in 2013 a widespread increase on the investment activity and returns. The overall performance, in terms of gross pooled IRR, stands at 18.2%, showing a significant growth with respect to 2012 (i.e. 6.2% in 2012). Performance figures in 2013, with respect to the previous year, are favoured by few specific transactions (a trade sale and two IPOs) having a significant positive impact on the 2013 gross pooled IRR. In addition, the write offs incidence decreased both by number (38.2% in 2013 vs 41.0% in 2012) and by cash out (19.8% in 2013 vs 37.0% in 2012). Table 3 IRR from inception by year: upper quarter Yearly pooled irr 18.2% 6.2% 12.6% 11.4% 16.6% Upper quarter (per performance) 27.3% 20.1% 24.2% 43.1% 33.7% Upper quarter (per investment size) 19.1% 8.1% 14.3% 19.1% 20.2% In 2013 the upper quarter confirms the general improvement of performance. In particular, returns of the upper quartile by performance (i.e. the cluster which includes the 25% of transactions with the highest returns) increased from 20.1% in 2012 to 27.3% in The top quartile performance by investment size (i.e. the cluster which includes the 25% of transactions with the greatest investment amount) increased to 19.1% in 2013 (vs 8.1% in 2012). AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 57 14_D_Performance.indd 57 07/05/14 15:13

6 Table 4 IRR from inception distribution by IRR class Number Incidence by number (%) Incidence by cash out (%) Number Incidence by number (%) Incidence by cash out (%) Write off/negative % 25.6% % 43.8% 0% - 10% % 17.0% % 6.2% 10% - 20% 9 8.8% 3.3% % 42.2% 20% - 30% % 38.5% 5 6.1% 0.7% 30% - 40% 2 2.0% 3.0% 1 1.2% 0.2% 40% - 50% 3 2.9% 0.7% 1 1.2% 4.7% 50% - 100% 4 3.9% 7.3% 2 2.4% 2.0% 100% - 500% 3 2.9% 4.6% 1 1.2% 0.2% > 500% Performance distribution by IRR class (see Table 4) highlights in details how performance in 2013 has been generally characterized by higher returns with respect to the previous year: the incidence of divestments with negative performance and write off decreased by number (49.0% in 2013 vs 54.9% in 2012) and significantly decreased by cash out (25.6% in 2013 vs 43.8% in 2012); divestments with low performance (gross pooled IRR between 0% and 10%) remained almost unchanged by number (20.6% in 2013 vs 22.0% in 2012) while it increased significantly by cash out (17.0% in 2013 vs 6.2% in 2012); divestments with medium performance (gross pooled IRR between 10% and 20%), that last year were the prevailing cluster by investment volume, remained almost stable by number (9 in 2013 and 9 in 2012) while show a significant decrease by cash out (3.3% in 2013 vs 42.0% in 2012); the 2013 prevailing cluster by cash out is represented by divestments with performance between 20% and 30%. The incidence of transactions with IRR between 20% and 30% increased significantly both by number (9.8% in 2013 vs 6.1% in 2012) and especially by cash out (38.5% in 2013 vs 0.7% in 2012); divestments with outstanding performance (gross pooled IRR higher than 50%) recorded an increase by number (3.9% in 2013 vs 2.4% in 2012) and grew by cash out (7.3% in 2013 vs 2.0% in 2012). In 2013 transactions with IRR higher than 100% were 3 while only 1 in AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 14_D_Performance.indd 58 07/05/14 15:13

7 Table 5 IRR from inception distribution by financing stage Early stage Development MBO/MBI Replacement N. of transactions Yearly pooled IRR 1.6% 21.6% 18.4% 0.8% 18.9% 8.2% 20.0% 11.1% IRR analysis by financing stage, as represented in Table 5, highlights that in terms of performance MBO/MBI and development transactions best approximate the overall performance of the year (i.e. 18.2%). In fact MBO/MBIs stand at 18.9% in 2013 and development stand at 18.4%. Replacement transactions in 2013 show a clear trend inversion, passing from negative returns in 2012 (i.e. 11.1%) to positive returns (i.e. 20.0%). Early stage transactions, which have always represented a limited sample with low investment volumes, confirm negative returns (i.e. 21.6% in 2012 vs 1.6% in 2013). It is important to note that, early stage transactions, considering the historical trend, are typically affected by high volatility in terms of returns 3. The number of trade sales increased by 31%, from 48 in 2012 to 63 in 2013, and recorded an IRR equal to 20.8% vs 15.9% in 2012 (see Table 6). It is worth noting that write offs are not included in trade sale. Table 6 IRR from inception for trade sale (excluding write off) Trade Sale N. of transactions Yearly pooled IRR 20.8% 15.9% Table 7 provides the analysis of the 2013 performance from inception by time gap (between first investment and divestment). 3 Please note that IRR from inception referred to early stage investments were significantly negative in 2010, 34.8% in 2009, 2.7% in 2008, 89.1% in 2007, 13.8% in 2006, 1.8% in 2005, 30.5% in 2004 and 10.6% in AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 59 14_D_Performance.indd 59 07/05/14 15:13

8 Table IRR from inception distribution by time gap between first investment and divestment < >7 N. of transactions Incidence 17.6% 19.6% 12.7% 17.6% 25.5% 6.9% Yearly pooled IRR 20.0% 20.9% 18.8% 16.1% 21.8% 36.5% In line with 2012, in terms of average holding period (time gap between first investment and divestment) the percentage of transactions realised within five years remains stable in a range between 65%-67%. Gross pooled IRR on all investments by horizon The analyses on the gross pooled IRR on all investments (by horizon) 4 have been performed mainly in order to provide a comparison between the Italian market and the European ones. Accordingly to some international benchmarks, a new layer of analysis has been introduced in the previous editions related to the 1YR horizon (i.e. sample including all investments made in 2013). It is worth reminding that, generally speaking, the gross pooled IRR on all investments (by horizon) analysis is affected by two main issues: the application of an average rolling method to the specific period considered (i.e. relevant to properly compare year by year analyses); the common practice of a number of private equity houses to valuate most of the investments still in portfolio at cost. Focusing on the 10YR horizon (the most statistically significant) analysis, gross pooled IRR on all investments (by horizon) recorded an increase (11.1% in 2013 vs 7.7% in 2012), as a consequence of the following main issues: 102 realised transactions, totally accounting for around Euro 2,115 Mln in terms of total cash out, have been included in 2013, whose IRR is equal to 18.2%; 4 No analytical exercise has been performed in order to estimate the net IRR. However, in order to provide rough indications that may be useful to estimate the net IRR, empirical analyses, based on assumptions related to common market practice, would seem to show that, generally speaking, net IRR (excluding all taxation effects and transaction fees incurred by the investors in disposing of any distributed securities) would fall in the range between 50% and 65% of gross pooled IRR on all investments. 60 AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 14_D_Performance.indd 60 07/05/14 15:13

9 Table 8 Gross pooled IRR on all investments (by horizon) analysis to 31 December YR 3YR 5YR 10YR N. of PE & VC houses presenting investments N. of transactions ,109 of which: - realised investments still in portfolio Average investment size (Euro Mln) Total cash out (Euro Mln) 2,124 6,312 8,465 19,741 Total cash in (Euro Mln) 2,241 6,858 10,339 26,740 Yearly pooled IRR 15.8% 6.5% 11.3% 11.1% the incidence by cash out of depreciated deals among the investments still in portfolio decreased from 23.5% in 2012 to 20.7% in 2013; the incidence of re-valued deals by cash out increased from 29.7% in 2012 to 51.4% in The performance referring to the 3YR horizon highlights a net improvement (increasing from 1.6% in 2012 to 6.5% in 2013) as well as the 5YR horizon that experiences a similar trend (from 4.9% in 2012 to 11.3% in 2013). Chart gross pooled IRR on all investments (by horizon) AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 61 14_D_Performance.indd 61 07/05/14 15:13

10 Table 9 10YR by horizon IRR analysis: investments still in portfolio breakdown (by number and cash out)* By number By cash out Book value deals 56.4% 58.3% 27.9% 46.8% Re-valued deals 26.6% 25.7% 51.4% 29.7% Depreciated deals 17.0% 16.0% 20.7% 23.5% Investments still in portfolio (N. and Euro Mln) ,728 9,325 * Depreciated deals do not include total write off and partial write off over 80%. Notwithstanding the consolidated practice of measuring investments still in portfolio at cost, figures in Table 9 highlight a new trend for some private equity houses: in fact the re-valued deals showed a considerable increase by cash out (i.e. 29.7% in 2012 vs 51.4% in 2013). It should be pointed out that the depreciated deals cluster does not include write offs, as they are considered, for the purpose of these analyses, within realised investments. 62 AIFI YEARBOOK 2014 Statistics on Performance 14_D_Performance.indd 62 07/05/14 15:13