SYMPHONY LIFE BHD (SYMLIFE)

Transcription

1 SYMPHONY LIFE BHD (SYMLIFE) All figures in thousands of Ringgit Malaysia except per share values and ratios Analysis Date: Financial Year: /03/2012 Latest Quarter: 31/03/2012 Price: 2.70 Stock Category: Turnaround Overview Symphony Life Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and management businesses primarily in Malaysia. It develops various properties, including lake bungalows, courtyard villas, link houses, parks, condominiums, retail and office complexes, and hotels. The company was formerly known as Bolton Berhad and changed its name to Symphony Life Berhad in March Symphony Life Berhad was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. Board: Main Board FBMKLCI: NO Industry: PROPERTIES Sub-Sector: PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT Ownership: Corporate Owned (Local) 11/07/2013 Institutional Holders Investment Strategy % Shares Owned: 3.47% Portfolio Strategy: Lump Sum + Top Up Buy and Monitor Momentum # of Holders: 4 Portfolio Execution: Total Shares Held: 11,296,555 3 Mo. Net Change: 0 Averaging Down Method: # New Positions: 0 # Closed Positions: 0 Basis for Buying & Selling: # Increased Positions: 0 # Reduced Positions: 0 # Net Buyers: 0 Dollar Cost/Value Averaging Absolute P/E EPS EY % OSCILLATOR Institutional Sponsorship Market Direction

2 Performance Weekly Chart (Full History) Price CAGR % 8% 25.00% 20.00% 19.41% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% 10.93% 0.74% 3-Y 5-Y 10-Y Full -0.15% History Stock Versus Sector Peers Stock vs Sector Peers % % % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 63.19% 58.77% 19.91% 25.95% % Debt to Equity - 5Y Avg EPS - 5Y Growth Net Profit Margin - 5Y Avg 22.42% 13.17% 8.93% 6.62% ROE - 5Y Avg 13.64% Sales - 5Y Growth Company Sector

3 ROE by Sector Peers LIENHOE CVIEW HUAYANG MAHSING TAMBUN AMPROP GOB MEDAINC CRESNDO L&G SYMLIFE SPSETIA E&O WINGTM KSL UEMS OSKPROP PARAMON BERTAM IBRACO TROP LBICAP PJDEV ASIAPAC TAGB Y&G MASTER GUOCO CHHB NADAYU TEBRAU FOCAL BCB MKLAND MJPERAK MULPHAL TANCO

4 Market Cap by Sector Peers UEMS SUNWAY IGB UOADEV TROP SPB NAIM MKH TEBRAU GUOCO YNHPROP HUAYANG DAIMAN PARAMON AMPROP PJDEV MKLAND HUNZPTY SYMLIFE MALTON ASAS IBHD SNTORIA L&G EASTLND IBRACO FOCAL GPLUS BCB DBHD LIENHOE BDB EUPE PTGTIN LBICAP MJPERAK MASTER 4, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

5 PE by Sector Peers TANCO MUIPROP DBHD TAHPS NADAYU UEMS MJPERAK MENANG IJMLAND IGB IBHD MKLAND Y&G YNHPROP TAGB DAIMAN LBS A&M EASTLND MEDAINC MKH ASAS NAIM TAMBUN OSKPROP UOADEV CRESNDO PARAMON L&G PLENITU PJDEV TRIPLC SNTORIA GOB GPLUS GOLDIS LIENHOE

6 Key Ratios Measures 2002/12/ /12/ /12/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/31 5-Y WA. 3-Y WA. 10-Y GR. 5-Y GR. 3-Y GR. Sparkline Grade Sustainable Competitive Adv. Consistent and increasing ROE 1.78% -5.96% 4.57% % 16.48% 11.63% 4.60% 6.55% 2.88% 10.52% 7.32% 7.39% 0.21% -0.04% 0.18% (Pref. 15%) Consistent and increasing ROIC 5.43% 3.62% 3.24% -0.57% 11.22% 8.45% 7.73% 8.41% 4.30% 10.80% 8.26% 8.32% 0.06% 0.01% 0.12% (Pref. 15%) Increasing Net Profit Margin (Pref % % 23.85% % 25.71% 19.76% 13.05% 19.69% 8.34% 18.06% 15.32% 15.33% 0.30% -0.07% -0.07% 10%) Healthy Cash Flow Consistent and increasing CROIC -0.05% -0.22% -3.56% 14.62% 17.99% 3.88% 19.00% -1.31% -2.72% 2.87% 1.80% 0.03% -0.46% -1.07% (Pref. 15%) Increasing Free Cash Flow / Sales -0.15% -1.04% -8.34% 22.44% 29.61% 5.84% 32.75% -2.29% -3.56% 5.24% 3.65% 0.08% -0.73% -1.77% (Pref. 5%) Consistently decreasing (or % -2.52% -8.48% negative) Cash Conversion Cycle Conservative Debt Increasing Debt Coverage Ratio -0.08% -0.43% -5.09% 25.27% 46.95% 10.27% 73.91% -3.56% -7.20% 11.25% 9.14% 0.17% -1.19% -3.90% (Pref. 150%) Increasing Quick Ratio (Pref. 100%) 55.99% 56.63% 69.16% 36.63% 88.01% 91.99% 95.06% % % % % % 11.99% 11.73% 8.51%

7 Growth Quality Column1 2002/12/ /12/ /12/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/31 Revenue % Year over Year 17.36% % 42.26% 52.13% -9.69% -0.59% % -5.32% 39.94% 3-Y Avg. 0.32% 9.94% 38.60% 15.88% -5.40% -6.60% -9.03% 14.07% 5-Y Avg % 18.05% 16.46% 2.63% -7.09% 1.18% 10-Y Avg. 8.04% EBIT % Year over Year % 20.03% % % % % 9.05% % % 3-Y Avg % % 41.26% % % -4.81% % 11.95% 5-Y Avg % 22.20% 93.50% % % -2.65% 10-Y Avg % Net Income % Year over Year % 34.57% % % -5.43% % 3.96% -6.24% 15.20% 3-Y Avg. 3.25% % 6.69% % -8.45% -3.71% -1.28% 3.85% 5-Y Avg % 8.83% % % -4.63% -0.20% 10-Y Avg % EPS % Year over Year -1.43% 1.88% -7.13% 8.79% -0.39% -0.83% 0.35% -0.52% 1.28% 3-Y Avg. 0.21% -2.77% 0.51% 4.02% -0.61% -0.24% -0.08% 0.38% 5-Y Avg % 0.60% 0.77% 1.39% -0.33% 0.04% 10-Y Avg. 0.27% Cash From Ops. % Year over Year 55.67% % % % 64.40% % % % % 3-Y Avg % 23.00% % 83.63% % -5.40% % % 5-Y Avg % % % 26.05% % % 10-Y Avg % Free Cash Flow % N/A Year over Year -7.37% % % 15.41% % % % % 3-Y Avg % 85.94% % % -1.30% % % 5-Y Avg % % % % % 10-Y Avg %

8 Growth Quality 400, , , , ,000 80,000 60, ,000 40, , , ,000-20, ,000 Revenue EBIT Net Income Cash From Ops. FCF -40,000

9 Economic Moats Not available or no moat found Cost Advantage Not available or no moat found Switching Costs Not available or no moat found Network Effect Not available or no moat found Intangible Assets Not available or no moat found Efficient Scale Reference:

10 Red Flags in Financial Statement Column1 2002/12/ /12/ /12/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/31 Revenue 149, , , , , , , , , ,136 YoY Changes 25,930-24,970 63, ,473-31,539-1,743-34,571-13,693 97,356 YoY % 17.36% % 42.26% 52.13% -9.69% -0.59% % -5.32% 39.94% A/R 103, , ,052 71, , , , , , ,822 YoY Changes 6,463-4,599-33, ,801-67,935 22,878 4,156 66,416 3,245 YoY % 6.26% -4.19% % % % 18.73% 2.87% 44.53% 1.51% Cash Conversion Cycle YoY Changes YoY % % 69.84% % % 19.56% % 10.53% 3.44% % Days In Inventory YoY % % 62.58% -4.33% % 7.82% -0.36% 14.96% 6.28% % Cash From Ops. -8,994-4,024-17,912 4,093 53,400 99,334 24,285 87,323-8,596-12,921 YoY % 55.67% % % % 64.40% % % % % The financial statement looks normal. No red flag found.

11 Discounted Cash Flows Valuation 12 Discount Rate Average risk Average Risk Unadjusted Business Risk Financial Risk Discount % premium free rate Discount % Factor Factor Default Value 7.19% 3.44% 10.63% % Custom Value Margin of Safety Initial RRR Dividend Yield Est. EPS Growth Unadjusted MOS Business Risk Factor Financial Risk MOS Factor Default Value 35% 0% #VALUE! 32% % Custom Value 2% Growth Estimation Est. FCF Growth (Base Line) Terminal % Decay Rate (Yr4E-Yr7E) Extra Decay (Yr8E-Yr10E) Default Value 8% 3% 15% 20% Custom Value Financial Figures Shares Out FCFE Excess Cash Intangibles Assets Intangibles% add to DCF Default Value % Custom Value 50.00% DCF Summary 3-Y 5-Y 10-Y Good Base Bad Ugly Good Base Bad Ugly Good Base Bad Ugly NOSH. Fair Value Desired M.O.S. Buy Under % Current Price 2.7 Actual M.O.S % -3854% -2644% -2035% ####### -4340% -2592% -1891% 0% -5019% -2472% -1717%

12 Absolute P/E Valuation Model Good PE Base PE2 Bad PE3 Expected Earnings Growth 5.00% % % 7 Dividend Yield 0.00% % % 0 Business Risk Factor Financial Risk Factor Earnings Visibility Factor Fair P/E Current EPS Fair Price Margin of Safety Buy P/E Buy Price Expected DPS Expected Dividend Yield Sell P/E 55.09% % Sell Price % %

13 EY% OSCILLATOR CALCULATOR High EY% Price ($) Low Green Zone EY% 16.63% Green Zone Price($) RM % Buy Under RM % Trading Range 7.39% 9.98% Sell Above RM % Red Zone EY% 9.25% Red Zone Price($) RM3.03 Low High

14 EPS QoQ Growth EPS QoQ Growth: % Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13

15 Notes Created Date Note Type Source Type 10/07/ Analysis;Growth Driver;Outlook Newspaper 27/03/ Growth Driver BOLTON announced Jan 26, 2013 that 100%-owned unit, BOLTON LAND sb and PARAMOUNT BLOSSOM sb agreed to jointly develop two parcels of land located in Seremban 2, Negeri Sembilan. The proposed development will be carried out via a JV company, GAYA ARENA. The two parcels of land in Seremban 2, measuring approximately 77 acres (31 hectares) in Mukim Rasah, Seremban, will be priced at RM75m. BOLTON plans to construct a mixed development of bungalows, villas, shop offices and retail units as possible components in the proposed development. 27/03/ Growth Driver BOLTON IN SEREMBAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT BOLTON announced Jan 26, 2013 that 100%-owned unit, BOLTON LAND sb and PARAMOUNT BLOSSOM sb agreed to jointly develop two parcels of land located in Seremban 2, Negeri Sembilan. The proposed development will be carried out via a JV company, GAYA ARENA. The two parcels of land in Seremban 2, measuring approximately 77 acres (31 hectares) in Mukim Rasah, Seremban, will be priced at RM75m. BOLTON plans to construct a mixed development of bungalows, villas, shop offices and retail units as 13/03/2013 possible components in the proposed development. Announcement BOLTON is selling 206 acres of quarrying land in Ulu Langat, Selangor to YTL CEMENT for RM100m and expects to record a gain of RM57.10m. Newspaper Newspaper Newspaper

16 30/01/ BOLTON launched its high-end property project, Tijani Ukay, on a 23-acre leasehold land in Ukay Perdana, Hulu Kelang. The Company said Dec 6, 2012 that the project would have low density of less than one bungalow per acre and a GDV of RM300m. BOLTON said that the Project was a modern contemporary development, consisting of eight bungalows and 110 units of zero lots bungalow within a gated and guarded community. The built-up area of Tijai Ukay's bungalows and zero-lot bungalows range between 3,800 sq ft and 4,900 sq ft and are priced from RM2.4m and upwards, depending on the land size, design and location. Growth Driver Newspaper